Vital Energy Inc (VTLE)

[littlejohn]

WAHA NG...$7.73 on 02/03, 4.04 on 01/28...


https://texasalliance.org/daily-market-information/


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 67ish, February natural gas had stunning close...


The February Nymex gas futures
contract settled at $6.265/MMBtu,
up $1.988 day/day. It rolled off
the books at the close. March,
which takes over as the front
month, climbed 24.7 cents…


https://www.naturalgasintel.com/data-snapshot/daily-gpi/


Wonder how many companies had folks

watching and had any excess inventory

to sell into the late spike...


March NG contracts came in like

a lion also...


https://finviz.com/futures.ashx


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI $70, potential increase of 8,000 to 10,000

bbls of oil day being produced

to start 2022 versus 2021 average

makes things interesting...


01/05/2022 Investor Presentation...


http://www.laredopetro.com/media/385047/january-2022-investor-presentation.pdf


Added oil production earns market

prices over any hedged production...


Hedged oil and liquids production

still offers back stop against

potential down turns in pricing...


NGL pricing for hedges is pretty

decent and some not far off this

week's peak pricing...


NGL hedging on WAHA at a -36 peg

to that price could offer some

benefits if NGL price spikes...


https://texasalliance.org/daily-market-information/


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI, Brent $84/bbl. NGL $4.29, so wells fargo

thinks that is a sell scenario...


https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/laredo-petroleum-lpi-receives-a-sell-from-wells-fargo?utm_source=stck.pro&utm_medium=referral


Shoulda took all the extra money

made from increased oil production

since 4th quarter of 2021 and

opened an account with them...


https://www.barchart.com/futures/energies


Damn sure wouldn't do it now...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI $61+, sometimes looking back is good

before looking ahead...


https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/11/03/laredo-petroleum-lpi-q3-2021-earnings-call-transcr/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article


LPI recently forecast to start

having positive free cash flow in

the 4th quarter of 2021...


Forecast of about $300 million

of free cash flow in 2022 comes

from a projected oil price...


LPI is well hedged if that oil

price falls Well short of that...


So, in the times that start to

look a little dimmer, you may

reflect on one of your big gripes

about the past year of hedges...


Higher oil production percentage...

Lower debt cost per dollar borrowed...


And hope the process continues

to benefit as prices average out

as time rolls on...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI $59+, Feb. Brent $74+, demand fluctuates...


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rise-On-Record-US-Oil-Demand.html


for those keeping score at home...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI hit $93 on 06/30 when oil was $73...


https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/LPI/interactive-chart


https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLY00/interactive-chart


LPI now $59 and oil at 69...


Seems to be a hitch in the

valuation metric of LPI versus

oil price...


$65 to $70 is not cheap oil

price for a thrifty producer...


Is LPI thrifty or not?...LJ

[pennysoldier]

Woot, wooooot! $LPI, the gift that keeps on a giving. Like $100 by EOY.

[pennysoldier]

Yeah your right. I enter/exit LPI all the time.

[pennysoldier]

Yeah your right. I enter/exit LPI all the time.

[littlejohn]

Where Pioneer may have existing hedges

in place affects short term

view on an acquisition...


Sunday pr drop about a deal

makes me look at that proposed

$73/share for Pioneer and wonder

why on Sunday...


We like LPI long term so getting

thru the devil in the details

shouldn't matter over long term...


At least LPI has the means to

try some things others can't...


so we watch...LJ

[pennysoldier]

LPI is legit. I'm riding this pony as long as I can.

[pennysoldier]

LPI just keeps giving back. This has been my breakout star of the year. It looks like this coming week will be more of the same. Acquiring that tract of land next to their current operations was a great move. $$$$$

[littlejohn]

LPI $45ish, China port reopens, link...


https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3146292/china-shipping-ningbo-zhoushan-port-reopens-key-terminal


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Good time to roll forward some 2021 hedges

that are too cheap into the

March to July, 2022 timeframe...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI, cash flow higher than operating profit

because of tricky accounting

for hedge losses...

2nd quarter, 2021...

about $187 million operating cash
flow...from cash flow statement...

about $108 million operating profit
from statement of operations...


How do you get more cash flow

than profit?!...excellent question...


Write off about $217 million of
paper losses on hedge contracts...


But only pay out about $57 million
of cash for actual hedge losses...

Three months ended June 30,2021
(in thousands)

Net settlements (paid) received for
matured commodity derivatives:

Oil $ (34,466)

NGL (16,953)

Natural gas (6,126)

Total $ (57,545)


First you have to get past tricky

hedge accounting...


Before thinking about 34,000 bbls/day

of oil production potential in 3rd quarter

versus 26,000 bbls/day in 2nd quarter...


About 30% or more increase in revenue

possible in 3rd quarter whether it is

hedged, unhedged, or in bird feathers...


Big short wheels can easily manipulate

price down more until 08/20 and clean

up even more on put positions...


Unless peon holders hold strong or

even add to pressure them...


Think about a rubber band popping

when short pressure disappears...


Oh yeah, LPI doesn't account for

recent acquisition sale deal until

3rd quarter which should give a boost

back up on balance sheet on current

asset value prices versus depressed

value pricing from 12/30/2020 on the

added assets...


But someone else has to do the math

because it is above my pay grade...


so we watch...LJ



LPI 2nd quarter 10Q link...

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1528129/000152812921000129/lpi-20210630.htm

[littlejohn]

I have a theory that tracking airline traffic

in the air is better than watching

tv to gauge fuel demand...


https://www.flightradar24.com/35.68,-8.16/3


every plane doesn't have to have

an arse in every seat to use fuel...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI $46, India gasoline demand soared

in summer 2021 like in U.S....


https://www.livemint.com/news/india/petrol-demand-climbs-up-as-cooped-up-indian-tourists-hit-the-roads-amid-covid-wave-11628125110060.html


Ya know, it is more upbeat

news than the negative nellies

on money tv...


but you should know...


so we watch..LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI has about 20% of production in

3rd quarter that may earn

higher prices over hedge prices

if oil price stays strong...


http://www.laredopetro.com/media/383087/second-quarter-2021-earnings-presentation.pdf


Avoiding a hedge position that

gets burned much worse in a

price spike is paramount now in

a Tight oil inventory environment...


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/DUC-Well-Inventory-Plunges-As-Drillers-Frack-More-Than-They-Drill.html


2021 flipped opposite of 2020...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Wonder why LPI doesn't spend some money

to roll hedges higher in the

3rd and 4th quarter of 2021?...


$1 spent to make an extra $1

returns 100%...



Too early to be a back seat

driver on their 2022 hedges...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Big shorts are winning on LPI...


https://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=lpi&submit=Short+Quote%E2%84%A2


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 53.89, Brent 74.75, crude inventory draw

reported...


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Inventory-Draws-Across-The-Board-Lifts-Prices.html


Can LPI price catch up with

oil price again?...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI should benefit from high natural gas prices...


https://finviz.com/futures.ashx


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI now has about 16,100,000 outstanding

shares and is over $1.5 billion

market cap after acquisition...


versus day before market cap

of about...


Market Cap Shares in Issue Float Revenue Profit/Loss EPS PE Ratio
$ 1.23B 12.90M 12.47M $ 677.19M $ -529.97M -74.84 -1.00


Haven't quite understood why

price rallied so much...


but it exceeded expectations of

$70 price target for me...


and I didn't get off there

because the ride was moving

so fast...


so we watch...LJ

[pennysoldier]

I was at first last October. LPI was trading $150-$200 a couple of years ago. During the pandemic, they kept making deals.

[pennysoldier]

I was at first last October. LPI was trading $150-$200 a couple of years ago. During the pandemic, they kept making deals.

[littlejohn]

LPI move going against future climate

activity made current price move

fairly unexplainable...


https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/london/0LN9/stock-news/85226250/climate-ruling-could-force-big-change-at-shell


More natural gas is what the

green proppers want to see...


Whether they are right or wrong,

they control steering for now...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

About $58 minus $40 yields between about

40% to 45% increase of oil

price from end of 3rd quarter,

2020 to end of 1st quarter, 2021...



https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14884132&guid=CjapUFr_DswRXbh


An amazing change in price...


But how Mr. Market decides to

price the improvement is always

a guessing game...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 28.95, link to February company presentation...


http://www.laredopetro.com/media/381250/lpi-4q-20-earnings-presentation.pdf

page 3, estimated to have

about 76% of 2021 oil

production hedged...


page 9,estimated to have

2021 oil production in a range

of 27,000 bbls to 29,000 bbls

per day, more or less...


LPI company website link...


http://www.laredopetro.com/operations/permian-basin.aspx


My quick estimate is that

LPI may have unhedged oil

production of between 4,600

bbls to 5,000 bbls per day

possibly, more or less, if

production targets are met...



Gravy of a large amount of

natural gas production and

NGL production is not in

oil production estimates...


And LPI strives to be environmentally

friendly and doesn't waste any

natural gas production...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 34. , WTI Houston crude price link...


https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/wti-houston-crude-oil.html


So we watch...LJ

[doctorbyday]

Seeking Alpha sees strong cash flow
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411113-laredo-petroleum-cash-flow-bonanza-year

[littlejohn]

LPI, Spot Natural Gas surged to8 to 17

on many trade hubs in

U.S. on Thursday...

Well above N.Y. futures pricing

posted due to icy weather...


Read to Bottom in this link...


https://www.naturalgasintel.com/record-setting-cold-lifts-algonquin-natural-gas-to-16-ogt-says-hold-my-beer/


https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGH21/futures-prices


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI, Laredo Petroleum Corporate Presentation January, 2021...


http://www.laredopetro.com/media/379049/january-2021-investor-presentation.pdf


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 16.55, nice share holder presentation...


https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14535481&guid=8DuqUKuVjgZYLyh


8-k for 12/07/2020 shows that

the presentation is being shared

at an Energy Conference...


https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14548869&guid=8DuqUKuVjgZYLyh


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

lose money, lose money, and lose money,,,

and then add 2 more directors

to pay more money out...


makes perfect sense...


so we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 14.69, drill baby drill...


https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14375264&guid=sGQ6UHyRjQLJNyh


Drilling jobs matter...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

LPI 15.64, China coming for more oil

from U.S. in September...


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Charters-Tankers-For-37-Million-Barrels-Of-US-Oil.html


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

It appears that a proper reverse split was

done on Director/President/CEO

shares that show in the

new sale filing...


https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14200285&guid=6OKHUe82wLY0Tyh


previous ownership filing...

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=13992268&guid=eOKHUK4Kn-d2Dyh



Never a waste of time to

verify such things...LJ

[littlejohn]

Yes, and the Digerati depend on fuel

to power their wealth accumulation...


The current asset valuation of

oil reserves of many companies

to share prices is at very

low levels...


You have to remember that

the fair value for oil price

comes when demand and supply

are near equal...


Until May, there was huge

demand to supply imbalance

that temporarily distorted

the oil prices down for a

few months...


Hope to find a way to

add more in the sector...LJ

[doumdirty]

Do yall own a position here?

[littlejohn]

Wear a mask if buying LPI or anything

with similar valuation...


you know to be safe...


So we watch...LJ

[danielaqp]

What you think to the future dude?

[danielaqp]

What you think to the future dude?

[littlejohn]

LPI...WTI Houston price has been stroking it

up in price since 04/30/20...


https://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=HCL&title=JUN_2020_WTI_Houston_Crude_Oil_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=M0&year=2020&exchangeCode=XNYM



So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

just means they made 20.20 per share profit

in 1st quarter versus 1.01/share

of profit pre split...


Only the numbers change...


And the huge amount of

Fund money that can

invest in LPI again...


So we watch...LJ

[doumdirty]

Well that's not worth a shit

[doumdirty]

Wheres everyone at?

[Michael TRed]

BULLISH the whales are shopping https://money.cnn.com/2015/10/26/news/companies/china-texas-oilfields/index.html

[tdeck]

Never doubted it for a second. nice.

Peace out.

[doumdirty]

I loaded more today. Looking forward to reading it myself.