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Great announcement this morning! Confirms a lot of what many suspected! And another 6 mil on the books for 2024 and could be a monster after that!!! Very exciting!
Any thoughts of how much of the 19.4M in backlog on Dec 31, 2023 will be recognized in Q1’24 and what the backlog was on Dec 31, 2022 for their 10M in last Q1?
To the positive, Givens has demonstrated significant improvements in their operational efficiencies and order fulfillment times, which reduces backlog.
But I also wonder how much of the current backlog is for the program they just received the 3M milestone payment and if the size and nature of it implies a larger program with bigger purchases or longer leadtime components. The latter would spread the backlog out over time again.
Last years Q1 was $10mil with $2.9mil of net income.
They might come close this Q1 on revenue but no way they touch that sort of net income. Analyst estimates are at $9mil revenue and $1.35mil net income.
If Q1 is light the stock will be in big short term trouble. But if it closes the gap and turns up and Q1 is ok then it goes up strong.
…..so, what sort of Q1 numbers would be “light” or “strong”?
what goes up sometimes come down. VTSI use to PR small contracts and it did nothing to help the stock price. We need to have faith in Givens he has ran his other company probably the same way. I am willing to wait until the Q1 release date
Another great day in VTSI land. More market cap just dripping away. More lack of posts or update from the company. What is givens doing different than ferris? Months to by without an update or a press release. After q1 results come in light we will be back in single digits like we were a few weeks ago.
Wonder if this dips below $10 again. Shaking my head. For some reason VTSI can never sustain its gains. Same trading activity every time. I'll buy more again under $10
The chart is another reason to sell if one is nimble enough to sell now and buy back a buck or so lower. It appears destined to make a gap filling attempt.
Feels like the only reason to sell is if you think post q1 will offer a better price because of the delays from the continuing resolution pushing out some revs. I have a bunch of way ITM calls I have to figure out what to do with in May.
VirTra (VTSI) Price Target Raised to $19.00 at Roth Mkm
https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/11862051/virtra-nasdaqvtsi-price-target-raised-to-19-00-at-roth-mkm.html
No, time to add shares and dollar cost average. I’ve been doing it with this stock 20 years and I’m up well over 10x.
Disgrace. Down everyday. Time to move on.
I'll keep taking VTSI profits, without new money!
Max VTSI position $$$ size remains constant as long as reward ratio remains viable.
Fed continues to paint itself deeper into destructive corner, laser-focused on lagging indicators.
Mostly very special opportunities for me, waiting for what should be a very exciting September/October.
The FED, the Election and the World.
And what could possibly go wrong.
Volatility screams opportunity.
Good luck you're way.
Congrats on being awash in cash. It is still an awesome time for buying many small company stocks.
That said, it is still a reasonably good time to buy VTSI. Is it going to be $13 one year from now?….or $6…..or $25. If I had to bet I’d go with $25+.
Breakout window was opened!
Hype brings its own action.
And I wish her and others well.
Chart concern remains 10.50-11.00.
I'm looking for flatish rather than exceptional Q.
News dropping could run right over just 'ok' quarter.
For now, as always, high-hopes would remain a poor strategy.
$13.35
Slaughtered some hogs, now awash in cash!
Will never understand those buying after the bounces.
Do the DD and embrace the risk or buy the S&P and CD's.
Holding ALL a position for seemingly all of time remains baffling.
Balance... Decide a percentage range of each investment and keep it tidy.
That's just me. Now looking for something new and coiled-up, or content to wait.
Buy early, buy lower to improve.
Trees don't grow to the sky.
Take profits as you go.
Good luck!
If it gets anywhere near $11, buy with both fists. The gap is between 10.7 and 11.1.
Missed another opportunity to sell in 16s. Now we drift back down just like I said. This stock repeats it's history each time and alot of us are too scared to take profits and buy back in. Do we go below $10 again. SMH
I started buying back in 2009, the lowest I ever bought was a year or three after that at 3.1cents which was the same as 62cents today. I think my first ever buy was about 10cents or same as $2 today. I remember buying many in the 7 to 8 cent range or $1.40 to $1.60. In hindsight I wish I had kept more until yesterday am…hindsight is 20/20.
OT…Bought more GKPRF yesterday, started buying it at 38cents, it reminds me of VirTra (the good parts) in many ways. Most of my money is now in SUP, HRTG, JOB, GFGSF, BDN, and UIS. SUP has potential to go up 5x to 8x. GFGSF is likely to go up 10x to 20x but it’s mostly gonna come all at once in a few years when they sell. JOB is trading at tangible book value with an enterprise value of $20mil yet has $140mil in revenue and is cash flow positive. UIS also has 5x potential but trades flaky with no rhyme or reason.
Yes, the more I think about it, I’m sure I’m up 10x also. The records I could find today showed a huge amount of my shares were bought in ‘09. Pennies.
$15/20 = .75
I am up 10x. I just wanted to take some profits as pigs get slaughtered. I still believe this is a $300mil+ company.
What are your computations on that? I’ve not sold a share and have owned most of my shares pre-splits. I’m up at least 4 fold today.
The funny part about this whole run-up is, it’s still worth less than $1.00 pre- 2 reverse splits.
GBB, you are not nuts. I would do the same but had to sell some on the ramp since $10 to finance my wife’s new kitchen (I already got my garage build-out). Down 10k to 45k holdings or so…. Life happens.
If the same "entity" has been accumulating shares the last few days, they must have reached the 5% ownership threshold by now and have to file a 13D within 10 days.
Part of an acquisition scenario? Bohemia was sold for $200m.
The Gomes sell off could be just an opportunity to buy more below 20.
Tell me I'm nuts.
Keeping my remaining 60k for now.
I am still all in. Havent sold any. I believe it is worth much more. I will sell some at $20
do you still own 60K in shares or have you at least sold some?
That dude came onto my radar via VTSI and somehow I ended up following him into what has to be one of his worst misses ever on SMSI. Now it makes me nervous if I'm doing DD on something and see he's already in it which weirdly happens a few times a year it feels like.
Thanks for the info, Sharp. We are firing on all cylinders. higher highs and higher lows. I was tempted to sell today at $16.50. But after being here for over 14 years why sell out cheap now? I still think this is at least a 500M market cap company. We are undervalued. So I hold and deal with the mental terrorism of the ebbs and flows....What are your current thoughts on the stock and company?
This caused today’s drop
https://stocktwits.com/MasterCap/message/568580810
Happens to every stock he sells as he has a rather large following.
This morning was very exciting. Almost hit $17! But once again, when that surge of volume subsides, we plummet back down. How do we get to the point where we can sustain the volume and price uptick? Higher highs and higher lows. Hope we can continue.
Something is up, just cannot put my finger on it. the swings are too large
Man has had an investors Hub account that averages 1 post per year and has posted on back-to-back days. Virtra is getting people excited !
Good post, all true. I shouldn’t have used the word “frittered”. My point is that even though they have positive net cash and a clean balance sheet and clean capital structure they are not swimming in money.
To be fair, some of that is due to the growth of their rental business which is a good thing…maybe.
I also think they are now of a sufficient size and have enough credibility to walk into most any bank and borrow $20mil with reasonably favorable terms. I hope that is Givens slant as compared to dilution. He is smart so seems likely.
They didn't squander anything....
New building and equipment, new state of the art capture studio, new demo and sales hq in Orlando, and they now have capacity to fulfill contracts At a fast rate, new accounting and inventory system, new sales structure, and they now have 17 mil in cash.... they hitting on all cylinders. When the feds distribute the funds from the budget sales will pick up nicely, Givens said strong 2nd half sales.... I'll take his word over anyone's speculation..... also you don't just do a raise and look for an acquisition... if you find one you really believe in THEN you do a raise
Compare net cash now verses net cash then….back then they had no debt, today they have about $10mil in debt….praise the heavens for the $3mil milestone gift otherwise it would look worse….also, subtract $3mil from Q4 net income and what do you get?
With the volume drying up, this thing is going to drift back down. Without any new news or positive ongoings, its ashame that we will drift back to oblivion like we always do. It is frustrating.
Police involved shootings of teens in the last month. Their job is getting tougher every day.
https://www.sbsun.com/2024/04/03/mentally-ill-teen-armed-with-a-knife-is-shot-to-death-by-san-bernardino-sheriffs-deputies/
https://www.cleveland19.com/2024/04/02/15-year-old-akron-boy-shot-by-police-had-fake-gun/
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-04-01/kidnapped-teen-killed-by-deputies-as-she-followed-their-instructions-video
https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/03/28/fatal-nypd-shooting-of-queens-teen-holding-scissors-spurs-outrage-over-cops-actions/
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/california-teen-shot-killed-by-deputies-suffered-from-autism-family-says/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/03/04/teen-shot-six-flags-georgia-police-exchange/72836838007/
I am definitely not an insider lol. I just know how these things go. Companies take advantage of these things . I don't necessarily blame them but in this case I don't see a need more more cash. We have plenty. And it would kill the rally. If it goes to $30 then maybe do a capital raise. But let's get through this and to higher pastures before diluting more.
Flyers - Personally I would like a more seasoned BOD to have more confidence in M&A decisions like that at this stage in the game. That and at least a year or two more of integration with their new ERP and operational turnaround and scale to ensure they dont get distracted from fulfilling their current growth demands and new contracts.
They need to prove themselves at these levels which in itself is a challenge for a growing company of their size. So far so good - they are doing great! Especially recently under Givens and newer team with focus on operational and sales basics - cement that into their foundation before loading it up.
Before Givens, Ferris was very conservative in not over-extending themselves and in many of our opinions, not bold enough on the sales side. Don’t go too far in the other extreme now, just continue to push their sales force to leverage the differentiators they took so long to build, and capture market share they deserve and there for their taking. I see a smart balance on this in the collective team right now - keep it up.
If they need more cash to fulfill contracts (beyond $3M down and cash on hand), I would rather see the team earn their keep by negotiating cashflow leverage in their purchasing and sales TOC’s and then short term purchase financing (in that order) before dilution, as well. If this resulted in increasing the downpayment to $3M, bravo!
IMO, They have been building capacity for this growth and the IVAS probability for at least 3 years before govt delayed it, so my opinion is they already invested and used their last cash vehicle (18 or 30M - I forget without looking back).
As a company, they appear locked and loaded, dont screw it up or get distracted. Just execute.
Why do you say that most of the cash they raised before has been melted away? We raised 18 million via the dilution before and we have more than that still sitting in cash. What's your take ?
I think they might dilute (raise money) again even with the strong balance sheet. If they did it now, it would be at about 12ish. Their net cash position remains small as most of the last cap raise has been frittered away.
However, to their credit they negotiated the $3mil milestone payment so maybe they are trying to avoid further dilution.
I will buy back in if it takes a healthy dip. Will it fill the gap in the chart? There for sure will be an attempt. That said, it is looking strong so who knows.
You predicted a reverse split 14 years ago. Are you know predicting selling 2 million shares. If that statement becomes reality you MUST be an insider or have insider information IMO.
I the person who tried get the board and Ferris removed back in 2022. If we did that a few years back this stock would have been at this level a year ago. Luckily I held on as I believe in this company.
I would rather see internal growth and no more dilution of the stock.
Shareholders need to be rewarded
Would it be prudent for Virtra to sell 2 million shares at $15 and raise $30 million and make an acquisition? What are your thoughts?
Congrats to all the longs. It's been an extended wait. I first bought in 2016. Don't own any now. Hope it continues to run.
I went through Virtra’s January investor presentation again from their website to run my own evaluations. https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-January-2024-FINAL.pdf
Pulling out the TAM (Total Available Market) they publish for Law Enforcement, and making some assumptions of Virtra’s future market share given their strong competitve differentiators and that they are already have traction in 40 countries to validate. As well as their military potential and assuming the $3M they mention in Q4 earnings is a 5%-10% downpayment, and IVAS accessories etc with MS…
I calculate current valuation at 240M (divide by 11.1M shares = $21.62) and future valuation of 400M (divide by 11.1M shares = $36.06). 5 yrs out and multiplying revenue-profits by 3 gives $108 per share.
This is all back-of-the-envelope and one guy’s very nonprofessional opinion (also a 25-year long shareholder) - take with a very large grain of salt and rely on your own estimates for investments etc)….
“Today” has been a long time coming and a LOT of patience required, but IMHO worth the wait.
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COMPANY PROFILE: VirTra Systems, Inc. develops, sells, and supports use-of-force and marksmanship firearms training simulators in Arizona and internationally. Its products comprise V-300 simulator, a 300 degree wrap around screen for simulation training; V-180 simulator, a 180-degree screen for smaller spaces and budgets; V-100, a single-screen based simulator system; V-ST, a realistic single screen simulated shooting range simulator; and Top SME Content, a content supplied with its simulators. The company also offers V-Author, a software that allows users to create, edit, and train with content specific to agency objectives; Simulated Recoil, a range of realistic and reliable simulated recoil kits/weapons; and Threat-Fire, a return fire device that applies real-world stress on the trainees during simulation training. It serves law enforcement judgement use-of-force simulation training, military firearms simulation training, and civilian simulation shooting markets. The company sells its simulators and related products through a direct sales force and distribution partners. The company was formerly known as Ferris Productions, Inc. and changed its name to VirTra Systems, Inc. in April 2002. VirTra Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
VIRTRA SYSTEMS WEBSITE: http://www.virtra.com/
VIRTRA SYSTEMS FACEBOOK: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Virtra-Systems-Inc/100717131887
VIRTRA SYSTEMS TWITTER: http://twitter.com/VirtraSystems
VIRTRA SYSTEMS YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/user/VirtraSystems
Bob Ferris, CEO
VirTra Systems, Inc.
7970 S. Kyrene Rd.
Tempe, AZ 85284
telephone (480) 968-1488 x5014
telecopier (480) 968-1448 fax
bferris@virtra.com
Contract - Websites
https://www.usaspending.gov/#/keyword_search/virtra
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/search/site/virtra
https://www.tenders.gov.au/?event=public.advancedsearch.keyword&keyword=virtra
https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/
https://govtribe.com/vendor/virtra-systems-inc-tempe-az
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=list&tab=list
http://www.peostri.army.mil/
ThreatFire Patent:
Click here
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