VirTra Inc (VTSI)

[utahstock12]

That dude came onto my radar via VTSI and somehow I ended up following him into what has to be one of his worst misses ever on SMSI. Now it makes me nervous if I'm doing DD on something and see he's already in it which weirdly happens a few times a year it feels like.

[in99flyers]

Thanks for the info, Sharp. We are firing on all cylinders. higher highs and higher lows. I was tempted to sell today at $16.50. But after being here for over 14 years why sell out cheap now? I still think this is at least a 500M market cap company. We are undervalued. So I hold and deal with the mental terrorism of the ebbs and flows....What are your current thoughts on the stock and company?

[sharpchicity]

This caused today’s drop
https://stocktwits.com/MasterCap/message/568580810

Happens to every stock he sells as he has a rather large following.

[in99flyers]

This morning was very exciting. Almost hit $17! But once again, when that surge of volume subsides, we plummet back down. How do we get to the point where we can sustain the volume and price uptick? Higher highs and higher lows. Hope we can continue.

[ARZ]

Something is up, just cannot put my finger on it. the swings are too large

[utahstock12]

Man has had an investors Hub account that averages 1 post per year and has posted on back-to-back days. Virtra is getting people excited !

[fishhunter]

Good post, all true. I shouldn’t have used the word “frittered”. My point is that even though they have positive net cash and a clean balance sheet and clean capital structure they are not swimming in money.

To be fair, some of that is due to the growth of their rental business which is a good thing…maybe.

I also think they are now of a sufficient size and have enough credibility to walk into most any bank and borrow $20mil with reasonably favorable terms. I hope that is Givens slant as compared to dilution. He is smart so seems likely.

[D theG]

They didn't squander anything....
New building and equipment, new state of the art capture studio, new demo and sales hq in Orlando, and they now have capacity to fulfill contracts At a fast rate, new accounting and inventory system, new sales structure, and they now have 17 mil in cash.... they hitting on all cylinders. When the feds distribute the funds from the budget sales will pick up nicely, Givens said strong 2nd half sales.... I'll take his word over anyone's speculation..... also you don't just do a raise and look for an acquisition... if you find one you really believe in THEN you do a raise

[fishhunter]

Compare net cash now verses net cash then….back then they had no debt, today they have about $10mil in debt….praise the heavens for the $3mil milestone gift otherwise it would look worse….also, subtract $3mil from Q4 net income and what do you get?

[in99flyers]

With the volume drying up, this thing is going to drift back down. Without any new news or positive ongoings, its ashame that we will drift back to oblivion like we always do. It is frustrating.

[The_Gman]

Police involved shootings of teens in the last month. Their job is getting tougher every day.

https://www.sbsun.com/2024/04/03/mentally-ill-teen-armed-with-a-knife-is-shot-to-death-by-san-bernardino-sheriffs-deputies/

https://www.cleveland19.com/2024/04/02/15-year-old-akron-boy-shot-by-police-had-fake-gun/

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-04-01/kidnapped-teen-killed-by-deputies-as-she-followed-their-instructions-video

https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/03/28/fatal-nypd-shooting-of-queens-teen-holding-scissors-spurs-outrage-over-cops-actions/

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/california-teen-shot-killed-by-deputies-suffered-from-autism-family-says/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/03/04/teen-shot-six-flags-georgia-police-exchange/72836838007/

[in99flyers]

I am definitely not an insider lol. I just know how these things go. Companies take advantage of these things . I don't necessarily blame them but in this case I don't see a need more more cash. We have plenty. And it would kill the rally. If it goes to $30 then maybe do a capital raise. But let's get through this and to higher pastures before diluting more.

[in99flyers]

Well said...

[Adrnaln]

Flyers - Personally I would like a more seasoned BOD to have more confidence in M&A decisions like that at this stage in the game. That and at least a year or two more of integration with their new ERP and operational turnaround and scale to ensure they dont get distracted from fulfilling their current growth demands and new contracts.

They need to prove themselves at these levels which in itself is a challenge for a growing company of their size. So far so good - they are doing great! Especially recently under Givens and newer team with focus on operational and sales basics - cement that into their foundation before loading it up.

Before Givens, Ferris was very conservative in not over-extending themselves and in many of our opinions, not bold enough on the sales side. Don’t go too far in the other extreme now, just continue to push their sales force to leverage the differentiators they took so long to build, and capture market share they deserve and there for their taking. I see a smart balance on this in the collective team right now - keep it up.

If they need more cash to fulfill contracts (beyond $3M down and cash on hand), I would rather see the team earn their keep by negotiating cashflow leverage in their purchasing and sales TOC’s and then short term purchase financing (in that order) before dilution, as well. If this resulted in increasing the downpayment to $3M, bravo!

IMO, They have been building capacity for this growth and the IVAS probability for at least 3 years before govt delayed it, so my opinion is they already invested and used their last cash vehicle (18 or 30M - I forget without looking back).

As a company, they appear locked and loaded, dont screw it up or get distracted. Just execute.

[in99flyers]

Why do you say that most of the cash they raised before has been melted away? We raised 18 million via the dilution before and we have more than that still sitting in cash. What's your take ?

[fishhunter]

I think they might dilute (raise money) again even with the strong balance sheet. If they did it now, it would be at about 12ish. Their net cash position remains small as most of the last cap raise has been frittered away.
However, to their credit they negotiated the $3mil milestone payment so maybe they are trying to avoid further dilution.

I will buy back in if it takes a healthy dip. Will it fill the gap in the chart? There for sure will be an attempt. That said, it is looking strong so who knows.

[ARZ]

You predicted a reverse split 14 years ago. Are you know predicting selling 2 million shares. If that statement becomes reality you MUST be an insider or have insider information IMO.


I the person who tried get the board and Ferris removed back in 2022. If we did that a few years back this stock would have been at this level a year ago. Luckily I held on as I believe in this company.
I would rather see internal growth and no more dilution of the stock.

Shareholders need to be rewarded

[in99flyers]

Would it be prudent for Virtra to sell 2 million shares at $15 and raise $30 million and make an acquisition? What are your thoughts?

[bborden51]

Congrats to all the longs. It's been an extended wait. I first bought in 2016. Don't own any now. Hope it continues to run.

[Adrnaln]

I went through Virtra’s January investor presentation again from their website to run my own evaluations. https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-January-2024-FINAL.pdf

Pulling out the TAM (Total Available Market) they publish for Law Enforcement, and making some assumptions of Virtra’s future market share given their strong competitve differentiators and that they are already have traction in 40 countries to validate. As well as their military potential and assuming the $3M they mention in Q4 earnings is a 5%-10% downpayment, and IVAS accessories etc with MS…

I calculate current valuation at 240M (divide by 11.1M shares = $21.62) and future valuation of 400M (divide by 11.1M shares = $36.06). 5 yrs out and multiplying revenue-profits by 3 gives $108 per share.

This is all back-of-the-envelope and one guy’s very nonprofessional opinion (also a 25-year long shareholder) - take with a very large grain of salt and rely on your own estimates for investments etc)….

“Today” has been a long time coming and a LOT of patience required, but IMHO worth the wait.

[czmkid]

So hard not to take a profit. Looking at six figures now…..small change for some of y’all pros.

[D theG]

Yup! And I bet we will see Zachs and Lakestreet follow suit.... then you will see more institutions buying in, we currently below 17%

[D theG]

Agree Flyer! And Givens said he expect the second half to be strong contract wise. We still got a long way to go!

[in99flyers]

With a current market cap of 170 million ($15.30/share), i still think we are too low. There are other companies with higher valuations that have no growth, no profits and a bad balance sheet. We could double and still be fairly valued my humble opinion.

[gbb777]

ROTH has just raised its VTSI price target to $19

[D theG]

Lol!!! Where is everyone? At the pub? Or do they only come out when they want to complain???

[dlewisfl]

"Must be some insider trading going on. Selling off shares knowing bad earnings is upon us before it being publicly released. Not cool."

Good call! LOL!!!!

[in99flyers]

I think we are trading at an all time high? Could be wrong it may have been higher at some point before all the splits, etc. but 2.million + volume! Wow!? I hope a secondary isn't coming lol. That would be very fitting for this company. Hope things are turning a new leaf.

[czmkid]

Go go goooooi!

[TheFinalCD]

nice day congrat$ https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VTSI&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

[D theG]

100% Weeb, I think you can pretty much surmise it is a significant military contract.

[D theG]

100% Weeb, I think you can pretty much surmise it is a significant military contract.

[weeblewobble09]

Anyone want to estimate how big the contract is if they're getting 3m upfront???

[hweb2]

Congrats on the 30% gain today. Awesome on an ugly day for the broader markets. But didn't VTSI recognize a $3M milestone payment in Q4? That woulda been almost pure profit. Without that, the quarter woulda looked much different...

From the earnings PR-

Gross profit increased 64% to $26.7 million from $16.3 million in 2022. Gross profit margin was 70%, an increase compared to 57% in 2022. The increase in gross profit margin was primarily due to the aforementioned increase in revenue while maintaining cost of sales in line with 2022 levels. Also contributing to this increase was an unusual event of the Company’s receiving a $3 million kickoff milestone payment in connection with a contract for custom work, for which no significant costs were associated.

And the CC-

Our gross profit for 2023 increased 64% to $26.7 million or 70% of revenue compared to $16.3 million or 57% of revenue in the prior year period. For the fourth quarter, gross profit increased 58% to $8.4 million or 83% of revenue from $5.3 million or 61% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase in gross profit margin for both the 3- and 12-month periods can be attributed to increased sales alongside a decrease in the cost of sales. Thanks to operational efficiencies as well as an initial milestone payment from a contract with no significant associated costs.

[weeblewobble09]

On shark tank they talk about 50m in rev being the magic number for a buyout. We should reach that this year...

[The_Gman]

Got this from the VirTra Facebook page. Sounds like he might have done it today.
Good interview!

https://radicl.com/radicl-blog/virtra-bob-ferris-pioneering-virtual-training-for-defense-advancement

[gbb777]

For the first time, Bob did not (co)host a conference call.

[Adrnaln]

Impressed that the actual Q4 and full 2023 report exceeded, on all counts, the already very positive TTM numbers in January’s investor presentation! Sets the stage for strong 2024 and finally realizing Virtra’s value and potential.

[ARZ]

It's so sad that this company could have been a $100-$200 million in saless or more if it was in the right hands 8 years ago. I hope we can play catch up. Great job Givens.Keep up the great work. Think about gettnig a new Board and Chairman. at least ones that believe in the company's future that are willing to get some skin in the game and not just sit back and collect free shares by being on the board and then selling them, also hoping this year we will hold an annual in-person shareholders meeting.

[chainma1l]

Looks like a few people got some cheap shares after hours.

[weeblewobble09]

I'm happy. The new product should send this to new highs.

[D theG]

Nice Q! Another 10 mil plus quarter 2.8 mul net!

[fishhunter]

Congrats All longs! Really good report. Stock should move up. I’m mostly out for now but will get back in deeper even if I have to pay up.

[weeblewobble09]

Hopefully just profit taking

[BCBA11]

I was thinking the same thing… hope we are mistaken

[in99flyers]

Must be some insider trading going on. Selling off shares knowing bad earnings is upon us before it being publicly released. Not cool.

[D theG]

Hopefully we get a good report today, looking forward to it!

[weeblewobble09]

Games to steal shares? This could still close over $10

[utahstock12]

Resurfacing this info in anticipation of the Q:

The Q3 PR said that they will continue to see YoY growth in Q4 for revenue, (unless they meant YoY trailing full year or something?)
"Our pipeline continues to grow while our backlog remains healthy and will continue to provide our year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter."
Q4 22 was 8.6m

On the call CFO said that Q1 2023 margins (68%) should be closer to the norm than what occurred in Q3 (71%). So say 9m revenue at 68% gross profit with approximately Q3s expenses that should get us to ~.20 EPS, right? TTM of 0.70.

[Adrnaln]

Just reviewed the Investor Presentation on Virtra’s website, in anticipation of their Q4 and 2023 annual earnings report on April 1.
The presentation, as a summarized story of Virtra for the investor, is very nicely coming together. The historical revenue, earnings, net income and cash trends on slides 16 and 17 (and hinting at EOY 2023 with Q3’s Twelve Month Trailing) are especially compelling.

Not sure who is admin on this board any more, but we haven’t had a “sticky” post for a while. Perhaps this is worth posting until the April 1 earnings call and release?

https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-January-2024-FINAL.pdf