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Opinions?….If VirTra were to announce a $5.x mil revenue Q2 in mid August, where would the stock trade? Maybe that is the wrong question….Where will it trade over next 3 weeks? Will Q3 revenue be $12mil?
I want to scale back in but still think it goes well below $7.
VirTra Set to Join Russell 3000® Index
Source: GlobeNewswire Inc.?
VirTra, Inc. (Nasdaq: VTSI) (“VirTra” or the “Company”), a global provider of judgmental use of force training simulators, firearms training simulators for the law enforcement and military markets, is set to join the broad-market Russell 3000® Index at the conclusion of the 2024 Russell indexes annual reconstitution, effective after the US market opens on July 1, according to a preliminary list of additions posted last month.
Annual Russell indexes reconstitution captures the 4,000 largest US stocks as of April 30, ranking them by total market capitalization. Membership in the US all-cap Russell 3000® Index, which remains in place for one year, means automatic inclusion in the large-cap Russell 1000® Index or small-cap Russell 2000® Index as well as the appropriate growth and value style indexes. FTSE Russell determines membership for its Russell indexes primarily by objective, market-capitalization rankings, and style attributes.
“VirTra’s inclusion in the Russell 3000® validates our strategic progress and highlights our forward trajectory as a leader in effective training solutions for law enforcement and military applications,” said CEO John Givens. “Over the past year, we’ve significantly enhanced our operational capabilities and continued to innovate to meet the growing demand in these markets. We expect our inclusion in this respected index to bring increased exposure to the broader investment community as we work to deliver long-term value to our shareholders.”
Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors for index funds and as benchmarks for active investment strategies. Russell’s US indexes serve as the benchmark for about $10.5 trillion in assets as of the close of December 2023. Russell indexes are part of FTSE Russell, a leading global index provider.
For more information on the Russell 3000® Index and the Russell indexes reconstitution, please visit the “Russell Reconstitution” section on the FTSE Russell website.
About VirTra Inc.
VirTra (Nasdaq: VTSI) is a global provider of judgmental use of force training simulators, firearms training simulators for the law enforcement, military, educational and commercial markets. The company’s patented technologies, software, and scenarios provide intense training for de-escalation, judgmental use-of-force, marksmanship, and related training that mimics real-world situations. VirTra’s mission is to save and improve lives worldwide through practical and highly effective virtual reality and simulator technology. Learn more about the company at www.VirTra.com.
About FTSE Russell
FTSE Russell is a leading global provider of benchmarking, analytics, and data solutions for investors, giving them a precise view of the market relevant to their investment process. A comprehensive range of reliable and accurate indexes provides investors worldwide with the tools they require to measure and benchmark markets across asset classes, styles, or strategies.
FTSE Russell index expertise and products are used extensively by institutional and retail investors globally. For over 30 years, leading asset owners, asset managers, ETF providers and investment banks have chosen FTSE Russell indexes to benchmark their investment performance and create ETFs, structured products, and index-based derivatives. ???????
FTSE Russell is focused on applying the highest industry standards in index design and governance, employing transparent rules-based methodology informed by independent committees of leading market participants. FTSE Russell fully embraces the IOSCO Principles, and its Statement of Compliance has received independent assurance. Index innovation is driven by client needs and customer partnerships, allowing FTSE Russell to continually enhance the breadth, depth and reach of its offering.
FTSE Russell is wholly owned by London Stock Exchange Group.
For more information, visit https://www.lseg.com/en/ftse-russell.
Forward-Looking Statements
The information in this discussion contains forward-looking statements and information within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are subject to the “safe harbor” created by those sections. The words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “project,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “would” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. We may not actually achieve the plans, intentions or expectations disclosed in our forward-looking statements and you should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Actual results or events could differ materially from the plans, intentions and expectations disclosed in the forward-looking statements that we make. The forward-looking statements are applicable only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this document are made based on our current expectations, forecasts, estimates and assumptions, and involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. In evaluating these statements, you should specifically consider various factors, uncertainties and risks that could affect our future results or operations. These factors, uncertainties and risks may cause our actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statement set forth in the reports we file with or furnish to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). You should carefully consider these risks and uncertainties described and other information contained in the reports we file with or furnish to the SEC before making any investment decision with respect to our securities. All forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
Investor Contact:
Matt Glover and Alec Wilson
Gateway Group, Inc.
949-574-3860
VTSI@gateway-grp.com
New North Charleston Police Department training center simulates split-second decision scenarios
May 28th, 2024
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/north-charleston-police-training-center/article_29b101ee-147b-11ef-8461-a34c65d5135b.html
Shareholders Unite - Buy Alert VirTra
19.66K Followers
May 28, 2024 8:19 AM ET VirTra, Inc. (VTSI)
We're buying another $10K trading position in VirTra (VTSI) at $10.91 see the most recent article as well as making a surprise entry into the Russell 2000. ...
https://seekingalpha.com/mp/1359-shu-growth-portfolio/articles/6020424-buy-alert-virtra
Awesome! That's gonna be good for the pps!😁
Virtra has been added to the Russell 3000 index
Price Target and Rating
Average Stock Price Target $17.50
High Stock Price Target $19.00
Low Stock Price Target $16.00
Potential Upside/Downside +79.3%
Consensus Rating Buy
Rating Score (0-4)3.00
Research Coverage 2 Analysts
Profitability
EPS (Most Recent Fiscal Year) $0.60
Trailing P/E Ratio 16.27
Forward P/E Ratio 13.75
P/E Growth 1.39
Net Income $8.40 million
Net Margins 18.48%
Pretax Margin 23.16%
Return on Equity 16.25%
Return on Assets 9.74%
Debt
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.18
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 2.46
Sales & Book Value
Annual Sales $38.04 million
Price / Sales 2.85
Cash Flow $0.88 per share
Price / Cash Flow 11.13
Book Value $3.96 per share
Price / Book 2.46
Miscellaneous
Outstanding Shares11,110,000
Free Float 10,532,000
Market Cap $108.43 million
Optionable Optionable
Beta 0.72
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/VTSI/
VirTra: Short-Term Hiccup Or Long-Term Troubles?
May 15, 2024 2:45 PM ETVirTra, Inc. (VTSI) Stock19 Comments
Diesel profile picture
Diesel
2.99K Followers
Summary
VirTra's quarterly earnings missed estimates, causing VTSI stock to drop 30% overnight.
VirTra's revenues dropped almost 20% year-over-year, with operating expenses increasing, putting pressure on net income. Cash flow rose, but it was due to the company working through its backlog.
Most of the revenue decline actually came from international markets where pipeline is still growing, but contract lead times are longer.
It's too early to tell whether this is a short-term trouble or a sign of something bigger. The next couple of quarters will tell us.
Practicing at the Shooting Range
RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images
VirTra Q1 Earnings Results
VirTra, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTSI) announced its quarterly earnings this week, and investors weren't thrilled with the results as the company missed estimates both on the top line and bottom lines. This caused the stock to drop about 30% overnight. Analysts were looking for the company to report 12 cents of net income on revenues of $8.5 million, whereas the company delivered net income of 11 cents per share on revenues of $8.1 million. The stock was having a good run this year before this latest drop, and it's still up more than 100% year-over-year despite this sharp drop.
Chart
Data by YCharts
I originally covered this stock in an article titled "VirTra: Still Offers Value Despite Recent Rally," and this article serves as an update on that one. In the original article, I argued that the company's growth story was impressive, and its valuation was still attractive despite having had a strong rally up to that point. Since then, the stock became more expensive as it rallied another 80% or so (until today's 30% drop) and the company's growth story seems to have hit a speed bump as it reported a decline of almost 20% in revenues.
The big question is whether this is a short-term trouble or a serious reversal of a long-term trend. If the first is true, it would mean we are looking at a nice panic-driven buying opportunity, but if the second scenario is true, this could be the end of this stock's appeal for the bulls.
One bad quarter rarely breaks a company, but it can also signal that things might be about to change if it shows some signs of long-term trouble. The most troubling part of the latest report is that it shows revenues down almost 20% year over year, while operating expenses are actually higher. The company's total revenues dropped from $10 million to $8.1 million whereas its operating costs rose from $3.48 million to $4.06 million, which put a pressure on net income which dropped by more than half from 27 cents to 11 cents.
The interesting thing was that the company's gross margins barely moved from 69% to 67% even with its revenues dropping so sharply. The company's general and administrative costs rose from 27% of its revenues to 42% of revenues, which is a pretty large increase. This is probably why profits dropped even faster than revenues did, while gross margins actually stayed stable.
Income Statement
Income Statement (VirTra )
VirTra used to enjoy a pretty large backlog before this quarter, which allowed it to have visibility and consistency in its revenue growth path, but the backlog seems to have shrunk during the quarter. As of this quarter, the company's backlog size is down from $20 million to $14 million, which includes $5.4 million in capital, $6.4 million in service and warranties and $2.2 million in other contracts so not all of this backlog is product orders. Some of it actually relates to long-term warranty and service contracts. The company received only $2.9 million of new orders into its backlog during the quarter, which could have been a lot better.
Most of the revenue decline from last year actually came from international markets. The U.S. government market was mostly flat year over year between last year and this year ($6.72 million vs $6.75 million this year) whereas international market revenues were down from $3.2 million to $1.3 million, down about 1.8 million. Considering that the company's total revenues were down by about 2 million, most of this was accounted by international sales. The company actually said that its international pipelines are growing, but it's taking longer to finalize those contracts since sales cycles tend to be longer in international markets, but eventually, growth should return to these markets. Since revenues are not recognized until a product is delivered and signed off on, it makes sense for longer pipeline timelines to impact this company's revenues, but if this trend continues it may signal troubles in the future.
Market Segments
Market Segments (VirTra )
On a positive note, the company's operating cash flow was up significantly from the same quarter a year ago. It was mostly accounted by one line item (Accounts Receivable net) which rose from negative $1.6 million to positive $5.2 million, which gave the company a positive operating cash flow of $5.1 million, up significantly from less than $1 million from a year ago. This is partially because the company has been working through its existing backlog during the quarter. Notice that this amount is very similar to how much the company's backlog dropped during the quarter (close to $6 million).
Cash Flows
Cash Flows (VirTra )
The company seems to be facing some challenges and uncertainty regarding government contracting both in domestic and international markets as many governments around the world are trying to keep their costs under control and having budgeting troubles. The company will have to ramp up its marketing efforts to show its product line's value to its customers so that it can continue to win contracts from both local and international customers.
VirTra is also trying to bring new products to the market such as V-XR which will take a while to generate revenues, but the company appears to be very confident about its long-term trajectory. There seems to be still a lot of interest from law enforcement agencies about obtaining this company's products, but the big question is whether they will be able to get the budget for it. Currently, there is a lot of pressure from local governments to better train their law enforcement agents, so I could imagine them allocating more resources for this eventually, even though there might be short-term headwinds.
Throughout last year, analysts kept upgrading their estimates for this company. A year ago, analysts were expecting the company to generate 21 cents per share in 2024 which was upgraded to 49 cents, 71 cents and 80 cents. This also allowed the stock to rally significantly during this period. It is likely that these estimates will be coming down in the next few weeks and months, but 2025 estimates will also be important.
Analyst Estimates
Analyst Estimates (Seeking Alpha)
I could see this year's estimate to be slashed from 80 cents to 50 cents and next year's from 90 cents to 70 cents in light of the current quarter's results. If this holds up, the current post crash price of $10.80 would indicate a forward P/E of 21 based on 2024 earnings and 15 based on 2025 estimates. The big question is whether the company can return to growth. If it can return to growth, those valuations are not bad, but if revenues and profits continue to shrink, then a lower multiple may be warranted.
It's too early to tell whether this quarter's weak results from VirTra were just a one-off quarter or part of a long-term reversal. During the earnings call, the company's management seemed confident that they will be able to return to growth shortly, but they didn't provide a specific guidance. I believe even the company's management has limited visibility currently since they are at the mercy of government contracts, which can take a long time to negotiate and finalize at times. The company said that it's streamlining its marketing process and changing how it sells products to reduce some of this uncertainty, but I can imagine that the results of these efforts won't be visible for at least a year or so.
Conclusion
What should investors do with this? I think if they are confident that the company's long-term story is intact, they can stay invested and possibly even add on the dip. If they believe that this quarter actually changed the company's long-term growth trajectory entirely, maybe it's time to move on to greener pastures. I can understand both approaches because things are a little more uncertain right now as compared to a few months ago regarding this company. I'd like to be more optimistic than cautious, but I don't blame you if you are not as optimistic
VirTra Simulated Training: A Closer Look
May 16, 2024
Intense—immersive—realistic.
EMPOWERING THE AUTISM COMMUNITY FOR 25+ YEARS
Barbi Walker-Walsh
MAY 20, 2024
Anyone have Seeking Alpha premium?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4693555-virtra-short-term-hiccup-or-long-term-troubles
How Effective is Police De-Escalation Training?
Which training methods actually protect officers and the people they serve, and which just check the boxes?
May 20, 2024
After years of watching the Virtra price rise and fall I started trading on the rise and buying back after the fall. A week ago I was beginning to question that decision. This week has confirmed that I made the right choice! While I’m still underwater on the Virtra shares I currently have, I don’t have any doubts about my decision to start trading. I just wish I had started sooner.
Sold some last year, bought some yesterday. Buying opportunity for 12 month look, glass is half full
Heads just been handed to 'em... Again!
Sales asleep at the wheel.
And now a wake.
That's life.
The question remains, how many lumps?
$ 9.87
Updated Investor presentation (May 2024) is posted on their website with backlog as of March 31, 2024 = 14.0M
https://www.virtra.com/wp-content/uploads/VirTra-Investor-Presentation-May-2024.pdf
9s and no one cares. One would hope several directors started buying today. If not, gonna get uglier for the share price.
You are correct, number was stated as $2.9 million. The CFO said it in her prepared remarks. Ugly ugly ugly number. What was the sales dept doing in 2023? The most important part of any company is the sales force…..yet Givens waited until now to fix it? Is it even fixed now?
fish: Didn't Givens say in the CC it was $2.9M new sales Q1?
$3.1mil in new sales in Q1….Just think about that number. Makes Ferris look like a great salesman.
Backlog was 19.4M Dec 31, 2023. Minus 8.1M in Q1 plus 3.1M in Q1 new sales would put it at approximately 14.4M - if I got my numbers right here (going from memory but I think I am close). How
close is this 14.4M to the actual stated backlog at end of Q1?
I don't think this would be the case. Backlog is accumulated bookings, bookings are basically signed deals. My experience in the university dept I work at, which has a lot of DoD grants, was that the continuing resolution delayed processes entirely. In other words, it was not as though deals were progressing to the point of payment, freezing, and then finishing when the CR was resolved. The entire process stopped, and things were/are backed up months. (this is why I said I was worried in my pre-earnings post and why I'm dumb for not hedging barely at all) So up until March 23rd no movement would have been happening on deals for months. I'd expect some (but not all) of the delayed bookings to be in Q2 and then Q3 to be caught up. When the revenue catches up would be trickier.
I have a grant that was supposed to have a 1/1 start date that not only isn't awarded but that they've also said they're going to pull the start date forward to approximately the award date. There is a professor who has had a post doc working since Jan who is not happy about this.
You said sales are being pushed out to second half of the year. If that were true in a substantial way wouldn’t it be reflected in the backlog?
Great post
I actually tried selling some yesterday because i thought this would happen and the plan was to buy back in the 12's. I like that Givens didnt try to sugarcoat it and i agree 3rd and 4th quarters should be great with a lot of promise going forward. I fully expect SP to hit $20 by the end of the year so although im not happy missing my sell price yesterday, im having a cocktail and chilling😀
My guess is this goes into the low $7s, just below where Ferris was last selling. That said, I’m not certain so will hedge and buy some in the 11s, 10s, 9s, etc. And if the Russell scratches them from the Add list, yikes.
oh! total revenue 8.1m --> 6.7m fed gov + 1.3m international + 1m police depts
Now i see it!
The drop in international sales accounts for almost the entire drop in revenue. Givens says military orders are taking longer because of the delay in passing the "24 budget. Does anyone think he's too optimistic about what the military will buy? If not, this lokks like a good dip to buy.
Yes, I know. That is why I offered my help with the math. Lemme know.
Did you see that international revenue was $1.3m?
Q1 fed gov revenue was $6.7million. It’s in the middle of Givens prepared remarks at start of conf call. Total Q1 revenue was $8.1mil. I can help you with the math if need be. Let me know.
> How much of Q1 revenue came from police depts? About $1mil.
Huh?
If your investing horizon is in weeks??? Yes, this is a big deal, if your investing horizon is 6 to 12 months??? This is a great opportunity.... much of the sales are just getting pushed out to the second half.... and yes, that includes police departments, the bulk of sales are federally funded through grants. The vx r is JUST STARTING and will be very attractive to hospitals, schools, and pd's..... I'm willing to bet we have a q this year that crushes any historical q from a sales perspective.... I know some people here think they could walk in to vtsi offices, sit down, light a cigar, jump on the phone and sell a few simulators.... it don't work that way 😉... they are doing it right through grant assistance, hand holding, etc... Givens hasn't even had one federal sales cycle since completely revamping the entire production and accounting system, be patient, we will get where we need to be!
Look at this based on what full year 2024 numbers will be. At best, maybe up slightly from 2023.
At $11, their market cap is over 3x revenue.
At $11, it trades at 11x or 12x their adj ebitda.
Sure, value it at Axon multiples and it should be a $30 stock. Problem is, VirTra doesn’t perform like Axon.
Value it like other similar microcaps and it should be a $5 stock. And VirTra still does perform in a lumpy erratic way.
In my view, this remains THE biggest problem with VirTra: They do not care about or even try to sell systems and content to police departments. How much of Q1 revenue came from police depts? About $1mil. What are their in the field sales people doing? Givens seems to only care about Military, that’s all he talks about. Way easier to have steadily growing and reliable sales if focused on 14,000 customers rather than 1.
Today...what a difference a day makes!
Why Is VirTra Stock Diving Today?
Lekha Gupta, Benzinga Editor
May 15, 2024
2 days ago...VirTra: It's Got More Than Just Momentum Going For It
May 13, 2024
Martin Fjeldhoj
It's disgusting how much this has sold off. I can understand why someone would sell too. I have just been here too long to give up now. Should a coulda woulda sold in the 17s....felt like we were on the brink of really going to the next level. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back in single digits soon. What catalysts lie ahead?
Oversold here… yes Q2 may be soft but Russell 2000 is likely.
in99flyers: No, sky isn't falling, but revenues aren't going to be great first two quarters. Will need really good 3rd and 4th quarters for 24 to beat 23.
Yes, I listened in..balance sheet is fantastic. Even with a quarter that wasn't noteworthy, we still made a positive income..flush with cash. New product coming out. IVAS. Government spending opening up in 2nd half. There are a lot of positives. The sky isn't falling.
in99flyers - did you listen to the CC? Givens said 2nd quarter will be similar to first. I think in the Q&A he said there was less than $3M of new sales in Q1.
Next Q likely still impacted by continuing resolution he said on the call which is what really killed AH. At least 2025 will have easy comps. I was never going to sell my shares but was trying to sell off my calls throughout the week and kept just missing my limit. That hurts since it’s going to be a couple grand less from trying to save a couple hundred.
Major over reaction. We get a 20% haircut on a pretty good quarter. If 8 million revenue and 1.2 million net income is the worst we can do, I'll take it. Not too long ago we would kill for an 8 million revenue quarter. Things are very promising. The next 3 quarters will be robust. Any downside in the stock is a buying opportunity
Didn't you speculate the same thing for the annual report? Sell off would have been worse if people actually knew the numbers. I listened to the conference call and doesn't sound like Q2 is going to be any better. Daily chart was showing MACD Histogram Bearish Divergence, knew I should have sold all my shares, but didn't.
CHANDLER, Ariz. , May 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- VirTra, Inc . (Nasdaq: VTSI) (“VirTra” or the “Company”), a global provider of judgmental use of force training simulators, firearms training simulators for the law enforcement and military markets, reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024
I hope this sell off isn't because of bad 1q Info being leaked.....we keep hitting 17s like a wall and falling back. Gotta break thru that resistance
I am worried about the gov continuing resolution which maybe pushed Q1 to Q2. The flip side is that some Q4 might have ended up in Q1. That sort of stuff is probably why the two coverage analysts diverge by 12 cents for Q1 while also only diverging 12 cents for the whole year.
I think if we have a positive share price reaction coming out of this it will be on narrative more than numbers.
What I most want confirmed is that prototype project and 3m kickoff payment project are not the same project.
Q1 Report today! Hopefully another strong one with some positive updates on new product sales, etc....
Any guesses?
I'll go with 10 rev and 1.6 net...
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COMPANY PROFILE: VirTra Systems, Inc. develops, sells, and supports use-of-force and marksmanship firearms training simulators in Arizona and internationally. Its products comprise V-300 simulator, a 300 degree wrap around screen for simulation training; V-180 simulator, a 180-degree screen for smaller spaces and budgets; V-100, a single-screen based simulator system; V-ST, a realistic single screen simulated shooting range simulator; and Top SME Content, a content supplied with its simulators. The company also offers V-Author, a software that allows users to create, edit, and train with content specific to agency objectives; Simulated Recoil, a range of realistic and reliable simulated recoil kits/weapons; and Threat-Fire, a return fire device that applies real-world stress on the trainees during simulation training. It serves law enforcement judgement use-of-force simulation training, military firearms simulation training, and civilian simulation shooting markets. The company sells its simulators and related products through a direct sales force and distribution partners. The company was formerly known as Ferris Productions, Inc. and changed its name to VirTra Systems, Inc. in April 2002. VirTra Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
VIRTRA SYSTEMS WEBSITE: http://www.virtra.com/
VIRTRA SYSTEMS FACEBOOK: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Virtra-Systems-Inc/100717131887
VIRTRA SYSTEMS TWITTER: http://twitter.com/VirtraSystems
VIRTRA SYSTEMS YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/user/VirtraSystems
Bob Ferris, CEO
VirTra Systems, Inc.
7970 S. Kyrene Rd.
Tempe, AZ 85284
telephone (480) 968-1488 x5014
telecopier (480) 968-1448 fax
bferris@virtra.com
Contract - Websites
https://www.usaspending.gov/#/keyword_search/virtra
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/search/site/virtra
https://www.tenders.gov.au/?event=public.advancedsearch.keyword&keyword=virtra
https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/
https://govtribe.com/vendor/virtra-systems-inc-tempe-az
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=list&tab=list
http://www.peostri.army.mil/
ThreatFire Patent:
Click here
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