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Yes, I know. That is why I offered my help with the math. Lemme know.
Did you see that international revenue was $1.3m?
Q1 fed gov revenue was $6.7million. It’s in the middle of Givens prepared remarks at start of conf call. Total Q1 revenue was $8.1mil. I can help you with the math if need be. Let me know.
> How much of Q1 revenue came from police depts? About $1mil.
Huh?
If your investing horizon is in weeks??? Yes, this is a big deal, if your investing horizon is 6 to 12 months??? This is a great opportunity.... much of the sales are just getting pushed out to the second half.... and yes, that includes police departments, the bulk of sales are federally funded through grants. The vx r is JUST STARTING and will be very attractive to hospitals, schools, and pd's..... I'm willing to bet we have a q this year that crushes any historical q from a sales perspective.... I know some people here think they could walk in to vtsi offices, sit down, light a cigar, jump on the phone and sell a few simulators.... it don't work that way 😉... they are doing it right through grant assistance, hand holding, etc... Givens hasn't even had one federal sales cycle since completely revamping the entire production and accounting system, be patient, we will get where we need to be!
Look at this based on what full year 2024 numbers will be. At best, maybe up slightly from 2023.
At $11, their market cap is over 3x revenue.
At $11, it trades at 11x or 12x their adj ebitda.
Sure, value it at Axon multiples and it should be a $30 stock. Problem is, VirTra doesn’t perform like Axon.
Value it like other similar microcaps and it should be a $5 stock. And VirTra still does perform in a lumpy erratic way.
In my view, this remains THE biggest problem with VirTra: They do not care about or even try to sell systems and content to police departments. How much of Q1 revenue came from police depts? About $1mil. What are their in the field sales people doing? Givens seems to only care about Military, that’s all he talks about. Way easier to have steadily growing and reliable sales if focused on 14,000 customers rather than 1.
Today...what a difference a day makes!
Why Is VirTra Stock Diving Today?
Lekha Gupta, Benzinga Editor
May 15, 2024
ZINGER KEY POINTS
VirTra's Q1 revenue declined 19% Y/Y to $8.09M, missing the $8.56M consensus, due to federal funding delays.
VirTra says anticipated revenue fluctuation was primarily due to the cyclical nature of budget allocations.
VirTra, Inc.
VTSI
-30.6%
VTSI shares are trading lower after the company reported worse-than-expected first-quarter financial results.
Revenue declined 19% year over year to $8.09 million, missing the consensus of $8.56 million due to delays in federal funding attributable to the U.S. government’s continuing resolution, which caused numerous contracts to be placed on hold.
CEO John Givens stated, “The anticipated revenue fluctuation was primarily due to the cyclical nature of budget allocations, often skewed towards year-end, coupled with the impact of the U.S. government’s continuing resolution, and the completion of a large portion of our capital backlog in 2023.”
Gross profit declined 21% Y/Y to $5.5 million in the quarter due to cost increases from the Microsoft Corporation
Adjusted EBITDA stood at $1.9 million in the quarter vs. $4.0 million a year ago. EPS of $0.11 missed the consensus of $0.12.
As of March-end, cash and cash equivalents were $22.4 million.
CFO Alanna Boudreau stated, “Looking ahead, we remain focused on improving bookings performance and stabilizing backlog amidst order seasonality.”
“With strategic initiatives underway, particularly the launch of V-XR, we are positioning ourselves to improve our revenue growth for the remainder of 2024 compared to Q1. Our robust working capital shows our financial strength and supports strategic initiatives, including scaled production of the V-XR.“
Price Action: VTSI shares are down 30.8% at $11.36 at the last check Wednesday.
2 days ago...VirTra: It's Got More Than Just Momentum Going For It
May 13, 2024
Martin Fjeldhoj
Summary
-VirTra recently was assigned a "Strong Buy" rating by the Seeking Alpha Quant system.
-But it's got more than the Quant's recommendation: Management is intensively looking to grow the business domestically and abroad. Exciting years are ahead.
-In this analysis, I examine how the combination of strong quantitative and qualitative drivers makes VirTra a Buy.
It's disgusting how much this has sold off. I can understand why someone would sell too. I have just been here too long to give up now. Should a coulda woulda sold in the 17s....felt like we were on the brink of really going to the next level. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back in single digits soon. What catalysts lie ahead?
Oversold here… yes Q2 may be soft but Russell 2000 is likely.
in99flyers: No, sky isn't falling, but revenues aren't going to be great first two quarters. Will need really good 3rd and 4th quarters for 24 to beat 23.
Yes, I listened in..balance sheet is fantastic. Even with a quarter that wasn't noteworthy, we still made a positive income..flush with cash. New product coming out. IVAS. Government spending opening up in 2nd half. There are a lot of positives. The sky isn't falling.
in99flyers - did you listen to the CC? Givens said 2nd quarter will be similar to first. I think in the Q&A he said there was less than $3M of new sales in Q1.
Next Q likely still impacted by continuing resolution he said on the call which is what really killed AH. At least 2025 will have easy comps. I was never going to sell my shares but was trying to sell off my calls throughout the week and kept just missing my limit. That hurts since it’s going to be a couple grand less from trying to save a couple hundred.
Major over reaction. We get a 20% haircut on a pretty good quarter. If 8 million revenue and 1.2 million net income is the worst we can do, I'll take it. Not too long ago we would kill for an 8 million revenue quarter. Things are very promising. The next 3 quarters will be robust. Any downside in the stock is a buying opportunity
Didn't you speculate the same thing for the annual report? Sell off would have been worse if people actually knew the numbers. I listened to the conference call and doesn't sound like Q2 is going to be any better. Daily chart was showing MACD Histogram Bearish Divergence, knew I should have sold all my shares, but didn't.
CHANDLER, Ariz. , May 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- VirTra, Inc . (Nasdaq: VTSI) (“VirTra” or the “Company”), a global provider of judgmental use of force training simulators, firearms training simulators for the law enforcement and military markets, reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024
I hope this sell off isn't because of bad 1q Info being leaked.....we keep hitting 17s like a wall and falling back. Gotta break thru that resistance
I am worried about the gov continuing resolution which maybe pushed Q1 to Q2. The flip side is that some Q4 might have ended up in Q1. That sort of stuff is probably why the two coverage analysts diverge by 12 cents for Q1 while also only diverging 12 cents for the whole year.
I think if we have a positive share price reaction coming out of this it will be on narrative more than numbers.
What I most want confirmed is that prototype project and 3m kickoff payment project are not the same project.
Q1 Report today! Hopefully another strong one with some positive updates on new product sales, etc....
Any guesses?
I'll go with 10 rev and 1.6 net...
Saw on Facebook the Virtra has a lot of new job listings.
Scroll down on this link https://www.virtra.com/overview-le/careers to see all the positions listed.
The M17/M18 (SIG pistol), M320 (Grenade launcher), M2A1 (50 cal machine gun) and MK19 (grenade launcher) drop-ins were not listed on the VirTra GSA price list. LaserShit has them, but they're replica weapons, not drop-ins. Maybe those were the some of the prototypes requested? This sounds like another no-brainer since VirTra has all the patents.
https://lasershot.com/weapons-and-accessories-military/
The 2021 Request for Information (RFI) For Synthetic Training Environment Soldier Virtual Trainer (STE-SVT) calls for:
108The Government is interested in instrumented weapon/device technology approaches and
109 solutions, for both marksmanship and qualification training capabilities for WSD and UoF. The
110 intent of using Instrumented weapons in SVT is so Soldiers can train with their assigned
111 weapons, associated optics and accessories. The Government will assess the tradeoffs associated
112 with each technology approach to meeting requirements.
Definition of an Instrumented Weapon
305 Instrumented weapon (or Training Weapon). An instrumented weapon is a real organic live
306 fire service weapon that has been temporarily modified to be used in training. While being used
307 in training, the instrumented weapon is not capable of live ammunition fire. The modification
308 may consist of installing (attaching) a drop-in kit (sensors, actuators, and instruments) to the real
309 organic live weapon to include its lower receiver. Removal of weapon components shall be
310 minimized as much as possible. The temporary modification designs should easily apply as
311 needed for training, and not cause excessive wear and tear on the weapons. Modifications and
312 the weapon use in training should not cause detrimental effects to the weapon’s life cycle. After
313 the modifications are removed, the weapon must return to normal service (live fire). Special tools
314 and equipment shall not be required, so Soldiers are able to implement the temporary
315 modifications. The Government considers the lower receiver as the legal assembly of the weapon
316 and it should not to be removed for instrumented weapons.
https://imlive.s3.amazonaws.com/Federal%20Government/ID199537995173327778885704830044325099278/Soldier%20Virtual%20Trainer%20Request%20for%20Information.pdf
Timeline on Page 36
https://imlive.s3.amazonaws.com/Federal%20Government/ID199537995173327778885704830044325099278/SVT%20Industry%20Day%20PM%20Overview%202021%2010%2021.pdf
We don’t, been speculating about this program since 2019
Do we know if this is Virtra’s product?
https://www.dvidshub.net/news/470623/peo-stri-showcases-soldier-virtual-trainer-capabilities-soldier-touch-point.
“The Pistol drop-in kit's initial design recoil accuracy is much better than the recoil in EST II (Engagement Skills Trainer II),”
Single source lease for the Air Force. Single source awards and DOD and 2024 funding availability is a good combination!
This document is a Single Source Justification for a simplified acquisition to lease a Virtual Reality Training System from VirTra, Inc. The system is required to provide real-life training scenarios, including taser and V-Threat capabilities, for the 99th Security Forces Squadron at Nellis AFB. The justification states that the V-Threat capability is essential and proprietary to VirTra, and that neither of the vendors who responded to the sources sought could fulfill this specific requirement.
NOTICE OF INTENT TO AWARD SINGLE SOURCE: The NAICS Code is 541511 - Custom Computer Programming Services. The 99th Contracting Squadron, Nellis AFB, NV intends to award a single source, firm fixed price contract as authorized by FAR 13.106-1(b)(1) to VIRTRA, INC. This requirement is for a Virtual Reality Training System that is able to provide all necessary operator training, equipment and accessories required to lease a Virtual Reality Training System that is fully functional, ready to operate upon delivery, and includes taser and V-Threat capabilities.
The contract action is for a Virtual Reality Training System for which the Government intends to award on a sole source basis. Interested parties may identify their interest and capability to respond to this requirement. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. However, all responses received electronically by 2:00PM PST, 8 May 2024 will be consid
Well, only about 10 days to find out.
$16.52 closing price I believe is our highest closing price ever....I think we are just scratching the surface. $20 around the corner.
Last years cutoff was $159mil
Who knows, market cap today is $175mil (as per yahoo finance)
The technology to do that even a few years ago would have been tough, but now it's everywhere and it wouldn't even be that expensive to implement so presumably they're doing it on some level already as you suggest. Just need speech recognition on top of some sort of LLM optimized for distressed/agitated/unwell person. You could let it loose to say literally anything as the tech exists to make believable mouth movements for generated speech. Then, whatever the latest psych studies show as de-escalatory language is more likely to generate best outcome (maybe even with scores for volume/tone etc), but with some randomization element since sometimes you can say all the right things and the person still shoots.
Also, in some of the demos I had watched before there is a lag between the person in the scenario acting and the sim responding. Presumably this is because the operator of the sim has to figure out which branch on the tree to select next. Now, the sim itself can understand and progress down the tree so the situation will feel more real time.
Rereading the CC transcript, Givens did mention the healthcare market. I just didn't remember this below comment.
"...Our platform focuses on training soft skills, including managing mental health crises, recognizing key indicators, and identifying decision points. This approach directly engages our core market and also expands our reach into adjacent markets, such as hospitals and care facilities, just to name a few..."
What I did remember from the CC was Givens mentioning AI as follows:
"...Military small arms training is shifting towards a more realistic and mission-specific scenario integrated with AI-assisted training and evaluation..."
That mention of AI stuck in my head. Why? Because when I discussed Virtra's training scenarios with a police officer friend, after reviewing some of the videos I sent him, my friend said he felt if the decision making was more interactive directly with vocal cues, then the training would be of more interest and value to him.
So, I'm sort of curious as to what Virta is doing with integrating AI into its content. Anyone know?
Feels like a huge upside move is coming. This is a coiled spring. Just the activity and volume, there are hardly any sellers. Every 5k buy shoots this up. If we get a 2 million share volume day I could see this over $20 quickly.
Interesting PR this morning in that it points out quick penetration into a security market that I wasn't even aware Virtra was pursuing. This headset application of their content opened the door to this security market opportunity. This will also give them other opportunities in other sectors requiring better trained security personnel like, for example, the education sector at K-12 schools, colleges and universities. A better line of trained defense before better trained police arrive.
Because of the screens, belts, etc everyone thinks of Virtra as a hardware company, but they're really a content production company that can use that content across its various hardware platforms with additional accessories to heighten the realism of their scenarios.
Just sold 20% of holdngs @ 15.60. Sold 10% earlier this month in the 15s, re-acquired in the 13s and 12s. Kicking myself for not getting more when it got down near 11.
Interesting find…. Related to Givens and VirTra
https://www.vialytix.com/use-cases
VirTra to Introduce V-XR Training Solution at IAHSS Exhibition, Signaling Increased Commitment to Healthcare Security Training
CHANDLER, Ariz. — April 29, 2024 — VirTra, Inc. (Nasdaq: VTSI) (“VirTra”), a global provider of judgmental use-of-force training simulators and firearms training simulators for the law enforcement and military markets, announced its participation at the International Association for Healthcare Security & Safety (IAHSS) Conference and Exhibition in Orlando from April 29 to May 1, 2024. As a first-time vendor, VirTra will introduce its new V-XR headset training solution at the event, highlighting its advanced functionality and ability to meet diverse training demands, particularly in healthcare settings.
The IAHSS Annual Conference and Exhibition is a key event for healthcare’s top security, safety, and emergency management leaders to network, meet with vendors, and find solutions for their challenges. This year, VirTra joins the expo to demonstrate the effectiveness of its new V-XR training solution, a compact, lightweight headset training simulator with a focus on de-escalation scenarios. The headset features hyper-realistic characters created using volumetric video capture and pass-through to reduce motion sickness for the user.
VirTra’s recent entry into the healthcare market began last month when it partnered with Ascension St. John Hospital (“Ascension”) to equip its team with advanced training simulators. VirTra’s V-180 was a practical application of Ascension’s grant funds.
Darrel Long, Director of Security for Ascension Oklahoma, noted the impact, stating, “We can implement frequent training in scenarios representing our environment. The V-180 is a tremendous asset and allows all security officers within the Ascension St. John Health System to ensure patient and associate safety.”
Ascension also reported the system’s success in a recent case study, available to download on VirTra’s website. The study highlights the simulator’s wide range of training scenarios and how it allows the entire staff, not just the security team, to practice skills that keep them safe.
As VirTra’s role in healthcare security expands, multiple other healthcare organizations have already adopted its technologies. Ohio Healthcare PD, TriHealth Cincinnati, Marion Hospital in Indiana, Indiana University Hospital, Health First Security in Florida, and several VA locations have begun training their teams using VirTra simulators.
John Givens, CEO of VirTra, stated, “Every day, medical providers around the country go beyond the call of duty for their patients. VirTra supports every initiative within our capabilities to ensure the security of hospital staff while on the job. With our V-XR training solution, we are not only enhancing safety in healthcare environments but also demonstrating its cross-market functionality, allowing us to begin expansion beyond our core law enforcement and military markets. I’m confident that the training provided by our simulators will instill a renewed sense of safety among hospital staff, patients, and their visitors.”
VirTra’s entry into healthcare security coincides with an increase in unruly and sometimes violent behavior directed at healthcare providers. A 2022 report from the American College of Emergency Physicians revealed a significant increase in healthcare violence, with 55% of physicians surveyed saying they had been physically assaulted while at work. With the increased demand for hospital security, VirTra is stepping up to provide advanced use-of-force, de-escalation, and other forms of simulator-based training to its healthcare partners.
Last years cutoff was $159mil. How is that any different than $300mil?
You might very well be right.
The bullish sentiment on Social Media is spreading....
The 2023 cutoff is a verifiable fact available with a quick google search. You're not even close to it. As far as the 2024 cutoff, there are 2000 companies in the Russell 2000 so you can get a good feel for where the cutoff will be just by looking at how that cohort has performed over the past 12 months. It's not even close to what you're saying.
If I am wrong, it’s not the first time. With the Russell 2000 we will not know with any degree of certainty until the market closes on April 30th since that is the market cap that will be used for consideration. Then we will not know with 100% certainty until June 10th when the additions and subtractions are considered locked.
If VTSI closes at over $27 on Tuesday April 30th they might make it. My guess is it will take a $327mil market cap to make it this year, so about a $30 stock price.
I read it is $250M market cap. This puts us north of $21 right?
It doesn’t hurt to have Mark Gomes pumping the stock… although I worry he is a fickle investor and could turn to a short in a moment’s notice.
You are incorrect
It will take a market cap near $300mil to make Russell 2000. Last years cutoff was about $296mil.
Rumors are that Virtra is one whisker away from qualifying for the Russell 2000 index. Don't know if this is true, don't know if that will change anything.
Sold a bunch @ 15, bought back @ 12 couldn't resist.
We going up first thing next week! Wait and see! 😉
Still here. I am just a cry baby sometimes lol....if you sell you have to have something else you think is a better investment and I don't see anything out there better than this. I think it has tremendous upside. With such a low market cap we could double and still be cheap compared to other huge market cap companies that are losing money
So you didn't move on?
Sell volume has diminished. We are moving up on hardly any volume. All buys! If we get solid news and good volume we would hit new highs in short order.
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COMPANY PROFILE: VirTra Systems, Inc. develops, sells, and supports use-of-force and marksmanship firearms training simulators in Arizona and internationally. Its products comprise V-300 simulator, a 300 degree wrap around screen for simulation training; V-180 simulator, a 180-degree screen for smaller spaces and budgets; V-100, a single-screen based simulator system; V-ST, a realistic single screen simulated shooting range simulator; and Top SME Content, a content supplied with its simulators. The company also offers V-Author, a software that allows users to create, edit, and train with content specific to agency objectives; Simulated Recoil, a range of realistic and reliable simulated recoil kits/weapons; and Threat-Fire, a return fire device that applies real-world stress on the trainees during simulation training. It serves law enforcement judgement use-of-force simulation training, military firearms simulation training, and civilian simulation shooting markets. The company sells its simulators and related products through a direct sales force and distribution partners. The company was formerly known as Ferris Productions, Inc. and changed its name to VirTra Systems, Inc. in April 2002. VirTra Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
VIRTRA SYSTEMS WEBSITE: http://www.virtra.com/
VIRTRA SYSTEMS FACEBOOK: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Virtra-Systems-Inc/100717131887
VIRTRA SYSTEMS TWITTER: http://twitter.com/VirtraSystems
VIRTRA SYSTEMS YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/user/VirtraSystems
Bob Ferris, CEO
VirTra Systems, Inc.
7970 S. Kyrene Rd.
Tempe, AZ 85284
telephone (480) 968-1488 x5014
telecopier (480) 968-1448 fax
bferris@virtra.com
Contract - Websites
https://www.usaspending.gov/#/keyword_search/virtra
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/search/site/virtra
https://www.tenders.gov.au/?event=public.advancedsearch.keyword&keyword=virtra
https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/
https://govtribe.com/vendor/virtra-systems-inc-tempe-az
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=list&tab=list
http://www.peostri.army.mil/
ThreatFire Patent:
Click here
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