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Our CEO "In an effort to optimize our trial protocol and the studies probability of success, we used great care in selecting patients for this study. We hope that the extra time, care, and effort that went into this study will ultimately be borne out in the results. With enrolment now complete, we look forward to reporting the initial data from this study in the fourth quarter." Hopefully the extra time pays off.
Looks like the short seller that crappy Management opened the door for nice and wide, was selling at the close today to make sure the stock stays depressed and down.
That short seller needs to send VKTX management a thankyou card for delaying trials 3 times in the last 4 months for making him big money.
Reaching for the 50 MDA 1.09
Yes sir, your comment was funny to me because on Friday I made an investment in Bitcoin
Lets have a great week here. Every day is a day closer to results.
lol just a bit of fun.
Nice volume, looking better,close above 1.00 would be nice.
I think (if my math is not too far off), results should be expected around oct 16-nov 6 range, based on time from last patient dosed, giving them 2-4 weeks to clean up data, as they stated would be needed during conference call. Agreed that we have come too far to turn back now lol.
It's notoriously difficult to find Nash type patients for trials, getting the FDA to expand the criteria was a strong move. Also shows the FDA is willing to work with them in a reasonable fashion. Some companies have to request dedicated meetings and jump through millions of hoops to get that type of exception approved. They obviously filled out the request form appropriately and with a reasonable counter claim for new criteria. They are getting things done. It's only a startup biotech... I am honestly impressed with how well they are handling things, given their size and the age of the company. Whenever things happen too quickly in the biotech world, bad things follow. They have been transparent and thorough, from what I can tell, all just my opinion. A rarity. Most startups are dumping shares and making promises right about now in the world of Wall Street biotech. Happy Thursday... countdown continues!
Ha ha don't do it! Look at it this way, they will have results from hip fracture within the next month, then you can take profits , play with the house money or hold the hell on for a few more months lol
Wow, I'm trying my hardest right now to hold back from blowing another Gasket on here.
Excellent news that we got enrollment criteria adjusted for the lipid drug, regardless of release date. No other holdups disclosed. Looks like we are all cleared for the fun to get started soon
Listening to CC now...
So I didn't want to put this in my other post, because sometimes they delete posts that they consider off topic. But I consider this on topic. If this recent price action worries you, I would encourage you to look at a stock that I consider similar, that recently went through the process. Pick any you choose. One that I followed closely that followed this pattern, was titan. You should look at the historical chart for how titan behaved, in the year leading up to phase 3 data, and the FDA approval decisions and delays. It will give you a great indication for why we are trading the way we are, and what to expect moving forward. Ignore what has happened since that other company's approval, it doesn't bear relevance to our situation. Glta and have a nice week. We are 70-85 days from data. It shall get bumpy. Patience is key. Find a good hobby to keep your mind busy as this passes, you will find yourself second guessing your decisions every time somebody drops the price on this one, especially as it gets closer to the real news... the data. Our float is so low, that nobody will be able to keep this baby down, if data is good. I feel almost certain on that. If data is good, they may decide to raise more money via ligand, and go it alone. That is best case scenario, imho. One can only hope. Seems like a lot of risk though, but ligand has deep pockets. And yes, they have a patent. And plenty of years left of patent protection, thankfully. If you google the compound name and 'patent' you can find the exact info quite easily.
Happy Tuesday
Currently No known side effects to either drug, to my knowledge. Sure that will change, every drug has side effects. They are very close in structure supposedly to naturally occurring compounds in the body, hence the lack of extra side effects. That being said, every action in the body has some sort of reaction, so there should be a few 'natural' consequences i.e. Side effects of these drugs, though those remain to be seen.
Price stuff is simple to understand. We are unknown, low volume trading. If someone wants to load up before the trial build up phase, where all the money is made on Wall Street, they would use the lack of volume to their advantage. It's easy for even medium size players to manipulate a stock price, if most people don't know about it, and most people holding the stock aren't regularly buying and selling it. You sell some shares you don't have, tank the price, and hope to buy more than you sold to get it there, to justify the means. Or you use these high frequency trading programs to churn the share price slowly lower, and do it as cheaply as possible. I don't think anyone sold short in any large volume, probably the second option. Again, I truly doubt that anyone who has held this stock to this point would be selling any number of shares, no matter how low the price goes. Hence the fact that they couldn't sell it much lower without risking major losses. I also can't imagine that any institution would sell right before trial results, having held it this far. If they wanted to sell, they would've sold in late feb/early march, before data was initially expected. Everyone has their position by this time. What you are seeing is others trying to enter a position in this stock, as cheaply as possible, so they can sell shortly before data is released, or if they feel confident enough, to sell right after data is released. It's the age old game on Wall Street. I would be much more concerned if the price wouldn't have tanked. It would imply that nobody likes this stock, or feels comfortable playing the game with it and accumulating the shares. So, thus far, the reassuring pattern I look for, is maintained.
Partnering will all depend on what kind of deals they are offered, and ultimately take. I also wonder if they will actually partner on both drugs, or just one. I think they need only partner on one drug, and it seems much smarter and safer to partner on the lipid drug, because of stuff I've already discussed. Share price will reflect how good a deal they get (up front payment amount, which will determine their ability to advance their other drug alone, and royalty percentage). Partnering will give share price a large boost, imho, unless the terms are awful. I find it somewhat unlikely that they haven't already been given offers, given the prelim data and niche market for these drugs, and the companies they are competing against. I really feel that this tiny offering they did recently was done only to allow them time to complete both trials and to shop partners on favorable terms without time constraints or market pressure. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see partner chosen before year end, nor would I be concerned. Who knows though, stranger things have happened.
Are there any issues with Safety in 5211 ? what is your biggest concern "if any" with safety Issues with FDA in Phase 2 ?
was this dip in PPS caused by retail selling or is a whale unloading ? Who is intentionally holding this back and why ? ...or is it shortsellers and they will be covering soon and going long ?
Do they have a Patent ? and if so will they inforce patent on all online sales that are happening now with LGD 4033 in the future ?
The heart stuff is our main advantage. They have great earlier phase stuff showing that it is muscle and bone selective, really good data to support that, just my opinion. Secondly, this is why the population they are seeking approval for is genius. Likely an old debilitated population, with a 2 year chance of death nearly 50%. Heart stuff, if it did happen (at lower rates), I just don't know how likely it would be to occur in less than 2 years. Every person in this group who lives more than 2 years, period, is a success. 5-10 years later heart stuff may in fact be a very acceptable risk, in my eyes. Post marketing will sort out the very long term cardiac risk. I don't think heart stuff will limit our advancement through all phases and approval, for those reasons, and a few others.
It appears to me that VK5211 is going to have great Phase 2 results, my concern is not with Muscle building and bone density but how it effects the heart. Do you see any trouble with Heart problems in older patients ?
When do you think they get a partner to help them in Phase 3, do you think they partner right after report or will it take them until next year.
What impact do you think it would have on the VKTX PPS ?
The warrant exercise price will always remain the same, whatever it was set at when the warrants were issued. The price that the warrants trade for will change, depending on lots of things, including the underlying price of the security. The reason I like the warrants is 1) they don't expire for about 4 years (options that don't expire for a year trade at much higher premiums, 2) they allow you to amplify your earnings. If the share price goes over $2, you will make 1:1 for every cent the share price goes over $2... not a bad price point. You can buy 2-3 warrants for the price of one share of stock. So if the stock price goes over $2, you will make 2-3 times the money for any movement in stock price, for any money you bet at this point. And if the stock does poorly, you still lose all your money, just like we all likely will with our common shares. In the circumstance, I view them as not substantially more risky than the common shares
RSI at 35, it bounces off that level every time. side note : 50MA 1.13 and 200 MA 1.24....would like to see a break above the 200 MA to get this rolling.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VKTX
another note on the Warrants , the warrant PPS has remained the same at 1.40 same as when a few months ago while the commons have taken a 40% hit from the same time period. guessing my lesson is these vktx Warrants hold their value at 1.40 no matter if stock is trading at .97....
It tells me the common shares are about to adjust back to 1.40 soon, and then anywhere between 3.00 - 7.00 in Q4.
Was reading this article and was thinking that taking CBD supplements can add a extra boost for VK5211 patients , it help bones grow and heal faster.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150716124359.htm
Thanks Waffles, good info again to keep my sanity long enough to try to hold till Q4 and beyond.... answered all my questions that I needed to know. Much respect to you, wishing you and others on vktx board all the best.
Hey all, been doing the real job thing the past few days. Again, nothing unexpected with this drop in price, exactly what I was talking about awhile back. When price moves like this, it's easy to make mistakes, and to get caught up in other people's games. I love the ?buffet quote about stock prices as being yelled by a neighbor, and if they yell something cheap, you buy, yell something rich, you sell. In situations such as these, you will make good money in the long run, if you stop to ask yourself... what has fundamentally changed. The answer here is nothing. And anyone with the guts to insider trade on based on trial data would never do it with this much obvious volume. It's smoke and mirrors. Machines buy and sell. We are at this price for a reason. Anyone skiddish who gives up a share at this price will make the men trading this down a pretty penny in a few months. It's worth the cost to churn this down and shake out shares. 200K avg volume, last 10 days. 2 million shares... in a thinly traded stock with a tiny float. No explanation for that volume, other than intentional manipulation. Unless someone big files a change in ownership percentage in the next 3-4 days and proves me wrong... doubt it. Anyways... greens, I type this stuff on my phone. It's a pain. And the explanation for why a company like ligand facilitates a company like Viking coming into existence... it's a smart move for many reasons, and yes, it happens, but rarely, for good reasons. Anyways, the answers to your questions are beyond what my phone will allow me to do tonight.
I firmly agree with bull's strategy of buying in blocks. Never going all in, not until things are just too good to be true. When I am doing good, I strengthen positions in stocks I feel are underperforming. I'm too impatient with my cash, it keeps me from over committing. When stuff like this happens, I start to free up money in those stocks, especially if any of the money I put in previously to other positions is even or up. These prices are a gift. It doesn't matter who our CEO is... there aren't enough shares traded, to keep someone from easily dropping the price of this stock. We are still unknown. There are way too few shares available to allow anyone to keep this stock down though, once we get noticed. It's just the spot we are at. Time will fix it. We didn't need some high powered CEO to steer this ship. We were given great drugs, and a silent partner with significant industry experience. They need drones and wheel greasers, hence the recent hires, and they hired some talented individuals recently. There won't be a big difference between a 1.00 or a 1.40 entry... this will be a big win or a big loss. Two huge trials reporting, both in niche industries, both without current competition that will matter. Market cap is very low, and would still be, even if warrants are exercised.
They want the warrants to be exercised. That's how they work. Every warrant exercised will give the company 1.50. 10 million or so warrants. They will generate 15 million bucks by getting them exercised. It's always the best option for a company. When things are going poorly, we usually see the opposite. Share prices pushed high enough to get warrants exercised. The market is a funny game.
I don't think they will be able to hold the price near these levels or lower for too much longer. Barring crazy news during the earnings call next week, this will begin to bounce within the next 2-3 weeks, as the run up begins. Now that you've seen the game, you can make a lot of money off playing the FDA approval patterns. There are a lot more variations than this one... but this is an easy one to recognize and play. I bought 15K more shares this week. I offer no promise that anything I say will come to pass. It's all a gamble. But this one feels right. I bet on other people's actions, and other people's greed. I doubt anyone is selling shares this low. Who on earth would hold this stock for this long, and sell now, if they were patient enough and didn't sell in march when the delay occurred. There was no additional delay after march, the last patient enrolled occurred precisely around when they indicated it would occur.
Patience friends. Nothing but time will work this out. I've gotten hammered for awhile before, in similar situations when I committed relatively too much, too early. That's the only way I got better. If the trials go well, you'll still do just fine... more than fine. And next time around, when the next stock comes along, you might just make fortunes by doubling down at moments like these. This is the life we chose... can't help but quote The Godfather. There is no reason for them to dilute after the trial. Not that I see. Partnering makes more sense, if the price didn't move enough to get the warrants exercised (which is doubtful).
Good luck guys. Pass the time well. Nobody can stop the clock. Last patient will finish their dosing very soon, one way or another.
Just Brutal, while an optimist. This is just been beaten. Small cap bio caps taken a huge HUGE hit this week. Bought 7700 shares this week. Feels different this time. Portfolio managers lightening up risk at the moment. likely will buy in higher if this holds. Good Data coming. just the timing sucks
just try Hanging in there whoever is selling this down is trying to shake out as many as he possibly can. Whoever the seller is..he is ruthless and a Brutal SOB.
I think it will be ok.
One can only hope. If I win I win if not well, I can make my wife sell make up or something lol
Thanks alx, I hope this turns out good for all of us here.
You will be alright. Just close your eyes and hold tight. It will at least hit that then you could minimize your position if your faith is that shaken, which I wouldn't blame you in least bit.
10,000 shares @ 1.40 , I bought back in April anticipating June data that got delayed twice by Management... they told me in a CC that they were on track for data release by end of June and they failed me trapping me....twice.
What are you in at as far as PPS?
Sickening how much I've lost because of vktx management/CEO.
I'm trying my hardest to keep holding,.... Management did a good job trapping me in.
Man, hang in their greens. Only one of two things can happen.
"I don't see any indication that this is dilution." ....well if its not dilution what retail is dumping shares at .93 like he knows somethings bad 2 months before trial data ? Who is selling, huge volume today below 1.00 ??????
short sellers are feasting on the CEO and his bad management skills with delays in the trial.
waffles are you worried the CEO does not want to pay for warrents and he wants them to expire worthless ? I think he likes the stock low so he can dilute easier at a bargain low price. Something very shady is going on behind the scene ...its obvious.
Sad to say but...Management is so bad I doubt we even get to 2.00 , even if results are good in Q4.
Management/CEO have ruined any positive sentiment in this stock with their poor performance they opened the door wide open to let in many Short sellers to kill us.
You can thank the CEO for this...he delayed the trial twice and lied in the CC.
The whole management team needs to be fired starting with the CEO who likes to lie and mislead people in his conference calls. The stock is getting crushed and he needs to be held accountable for this.
He outta be able to get this together. http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=32950917&privcapId=246791410
are you kidding ?...the hell its not his job to worry about stock price....then what the hell are we invested for ? I might as well daytrade/ flip this then instead of making it a investment. Which I have decided to do once I get back to even on this trap. At this point I just want my money back that I lost in this POS and get the hell out.
If The CEO does not give a damn about his shareholders then I don't care about him.... the bastard needs to step down and let a new CEO that gives a damn about the shareholders instead of underperforming and then Lying to them about timelines..
Really ? The CEO 's job is to perform for shareholders to meet the expectations he presented/ told in the conference call. He has failed, I do not think he is a good CEO and underperformed.
No way in hell am I sticking around after Phase 2 .... I'm getting the hell out of this deathtrap this fall/ winter.
I would like to see the Board of Directors fire the CEO, he is not to be trusted with his words and timelines.
Greens, I am frustrated just like you man. I am hoping things come together for this stock. No doubt the price is t where I want it to be. But ceos job is not to worry about the stock price. I want them to focus on doing there best damn job to get results which will hopefully end up with a positive effect on the share price.
Now are you listening to me? This Management team mainly the CEO does not give a rats ass what the shareholders are getting put thru hell , ....not to mention there is a large shareholder that is dumping this stock everyday...its pretty easy to see the gross incompetence with this Management team.They Just keep diluting on the shareholders backs while they delay trials.
...its sickening and disgusting
not going to pretend I'm not frustrated.
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