Viewer's Choice

[littlejohn]

oil nations have been raking in more

money with the oil price up,

and should have more later to throw

at rebuilding Gaza...

seems staying long on Turkey would

be the play...

were you trying to confuse me?...

EGP value was pummeled down also

and materials should move thru there

in rebuilding period for Gaza, not Israel...

another flip flop opportunity perhaps after

they were punished for helping innocents...

less is more...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: So what you are saying is "Short Turkey"! It will be very interesting to see whether the Turkish President's tactic to stop the carnage works.
As Mummar Ghadaffi commented when Bush went into Afghanistan, "Running up and down mountains is no way to fight terrorists". A good modification of that statement would be bombing civilian areas is no way to fight terrorists. It creates more hate that will last for hundreds of years. Mankind learns little from its history.

[littlejohn]

Turkey exports, moves ahead of moves?...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/9/turkey-restricts-exports-of-54-products-to-israel-until-gaza-ceasefire

The Turkey import demand to Gaza

will soar when the rebuilding aid

starts pouring in at some time ahead...

The move could be to prepare for new

export potential that will come...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: I'll say this about Ukraine. Most of the bombing Putin has done seems targeted, not random.
The media has not reported on civilian deaths in large numbers. Still, war is evil.

[bbotcs]

lj: Israel will retaliate against Iran. Not smart.

[littlejohn]

Doing right is taking the middle ground

and not a left or right turn...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/08/israel-gaza-war-elizabeth-warren-00151120

Odd how decency gets twisted...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Iran hired marketing firms to spam call

phones in Israel on the 10th when

Ramadan ends at monster pace...

Calling will become almost impossible

when the non-stop spam calling barrage

starts with no end predicted....

It will seem like hell on earth...

And pleads for a ceasefire will erupt...

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-795866

Just when no one thought things could

be any worse...



So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

GRRR .84, around .82 support is area

to start first buy or add now...

That doesn't mean that .82 will

hold for sure as support...

Penny stock traders control the trading

action and price moves now...

It takes longer to move support price

up and work the penny stock traders

out of the fray at lower prices...

Prices move up easier after higher

support areas above $2 are reached...

It doesn't matter if the company is worth

$4 or $12 per share now...

Price support getting moved up by

newer investors sets the price...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRRR/?p=GRRR


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Nothing like a crude awakening when lower

demand hit volume on revenue

along with lower margins...

I'm tempted to lowball on some

put buying on Vlo in particular...

Still a lil bit afore earnings though...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: For a couple of year, refiners have been moving in tandem with oil producers.
That tells you that logic and common sense is out the window and refiners are considered "oil" stocks. When I first noticed it happening, it drove me crazy.

[littlejohn]

Been shaking my head wondering why refiner

stocks jumped with oil going up?...

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/102214/difference-between-oil-services-and-refiners.asp#:~:text=The%20refining%20side%20of%20the,added%20products%20becomes%20more%20profitable.

Refiners had great profits in 4th

quarter of 2023 when oil prices dropped...

Is the info out there wrong?...

Can they hold margins when oil price

has been rising at a fast pace?...

Someone may have to rewrite the

info on refiners if their rally ever ends...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Question selling put options...

Would you sell put options at the

bid thinking that price will close

at that strike price to clear it?...

Would you sell just to collect the

higher premium after a daily price

drop if you were comfortable at getting

exercised if price stayed weak?...

Use a cheap $1 put price to explain it...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRRR/options

We don't have champagne budgets...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

04/04 to 04/10 seemed most likely for

market weakness to get aroused...

Nothing other than abrupt, reduction

of money flow during a short time period

seems likely to induce a correction...

And it could all pass like a nice spring

day and very uneventful as well...

Will still be plenty of high prices to

buy if we don't see any deals...


So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: With an interest rate cut looking less likely, it seems a big selloff is coming.
Could the oil market be manipulated by evildoers who do not want interest rates to fall in the U.S.? Is that too conspiracy theorist?

[bbotcs]

lj: VTLE
All I can say is, "good gravy". That expression makes me nostalgic for the days when gasoline was 35 cents a gallon!
90 percent hedged. Not 90 percent of the hedges, but 90 percent of the production.
Management needs a new crystal ball.

[littlejohn]

GRRR is lone, long hold left after selling

spree over past week...

04/04/24 was my target date for

market to start selling off,,,

GRRR may manage growth higher

than inflation or interest rates,

still a gamble on that...

Nothing sold over last three weeks will

have much eps growth this year...

Former largest holding moved to

negative EPS results this year versus

previous year results...

Big change from having zero cash

position to it being the anchor now...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

VTLE now selling over twice the highest

p/e ratio sold at over past

few years of watching it...

Diluting EPS is paying off...

They have projected 90% of oil

production for 2nd quarter is hedged

at about $74ish/ bbl...

Losing about 12/bbl. at the high,

current oil price on Friday...

Two biggies already warned on softer

1st quarter, 2024 results coming...

Oil sector speculation is trying to

catch up with tech sector speculators...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

VTLE, a few 45 puts for May were

picked up too high on Thursday...

Still not convinced the world can't

be saved from unrest...

Sold some shares with oil price

popping also...

just peon moves, no waves created...

egy and vlo look totally wild and some

folks may get a let down later...perhaps...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Israel is becoming an island nation

surrounded by sand...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/israel-us-gaza-joe-biden-benjamin-netanyahu-phone-call

A few thousand dead ago would

have been more responsive by U.S...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Batteries sold now are less reliable

than ever...

That is why they sell them with

tier warranties...

China rechargeable batteries are

very inferior products...

Good luck if you buy an EV from

China with a battery made there...

Batteries will prove out the weakest

link in EV sector,,,

And that is why new car sellers put

warranties on their batteries...

Where folks may be when you need to

use an EV battery warranty could be

important to different folks...


Batteries for atv/utv products have to be

trickle charged by owners to have them

ready to use when wanted...

Good gravy, don't get me started on how

Sorry batteries for mowers are now...

Our personal charging station for different

batteries for different things stays to

busy to add an EV to the line...


So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

LJ: Forcing EV's on people who do not want them is a first-class form of tyranny.
Let's face it, the Government and Ford and GM have "conspired" to do just that.
As DJT has warned, there is going to be a "bloodbath" in Detroit if Biden is reelected, as China floods the U.S. with their low-cost EV's.

[littlejohn]

EV- FSR ... leads way to plummeting prices

on 2023 EV models...

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/fisker-FSR/stock-news/93563354/fisker-announces-reduced-msrp-in-u-s-on-many-2023

Isn't that price reduction about what

a new EV depreciates in the 1st year

of ownership anyway?...

EV Market is now moving into period

when extreme depreciation on new EV

purchases start hitting drivers...

More sales now mean more used EVs

to try and sell that no one wants...

This is long wave brain think...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

GRRR is a foreign play being manipulated

lower by the home team crowd...

It is a long term play for me...

Security needs are rising everywhere

everyday that GRRR helps track...

Mixing the revenue base even more

worldwide should help them...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: OT
U are one of the few people who knows what a Trumpy Bear is!

[littlejohn]

hug your Trumpy bear, black friday could

be a coming...

Qs still in de nile zone today of

how fast drops can happen...

this market can't handle $100/bbl

oil price...

so we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: GRRR
I logged on to find out whether you saw the annual earnings report.
MTG has nothing on the CEO. He told off the "naysayers" in that PR or whatever it was.
Congratulations on a good call when it was several dimes lower.
If they announce another big contract, things should get interesting for the stock.
Things could get interesting as the eps rises.
When I first purchased the stock, it was several dollars higher.

[bbotcs]

lj: Hailo
Get back to me if the stock is publicly traded, if you are going to follow it.
Do a homey a fave.

[bbotcs]

littlejohn: VLO
I am emotionally attached to the 200 shares I have owned for 18 years give or take.
However. . .the price is in the stratosphere. To be honest, I do not want to take the capital gain because I have an NVDA call out there that would cause a $55K profit. Based on my experience with the first call, which I rolled out into this one, it is very unlikely to be called this year. (It is a Nov. or Dec. 2025.)
Is gasoline demand going to go crazy this spring? Are you taking into account all of the crazies who are rushing to the eclipse next Monday that might be behind clouds?
Are U in the total eclipse belt? 90 percent here.
I think this will be another big summer for air travel for vacations.
And, the biggest gas guzzling circumstance of all--Trump rallies!

[littlejohn]

GRRR flashes about .29/share EPS for 2023...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gorilla-reports-record-2023-financial-120000545.html

Ya lil pup is growing...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Hailo, that is not Taiwan shaking, that is

competition coming...

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chipmaker-hailo-raises-120-million-riding-ai-boom-2024-04-02/

Small test market?...

The early applications of the Hailo-10 will
target personal computers and automotive
infotainment systems, boosting the processing
capabilities of central processing units (CPUs),
Hailo said.


GRRR uses... Intel Inside...

and

Hailo AI Acceleration Support...

https://investors.gorilla-technology.com/static-files/3640b42f-aa68-4ebb-afb2-1acda2f91529

GRRR also partners with Lanner along

with Hailo on product development...

Still a newbie company and trying

to find more ties to GRRR...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

REI may have closed out one of weakest

production drop off quarters in

1st quarter, 2024 in a long time...

REI already guided for a big hit to

production due to January freeze over...

VTLE didn't bother to give any insight...

REI has been near the worst fire threat

area in Texas for almost six weeks...

In mid 2023 when a fire event hit a well

site REI didn't disclose it until earnings...

REI hit a big pop up number Wednesday

that highlights low resistance of holders

that are staying to see the 1st quarter

numbers when they get dropped...

Higher prices in the oil patch don't

mean that most are holding...

That is why the stock market is viewed

as being rigged because institutions move

prices when resistance gets weakest...

Patience young Jedi, thou has entered

much cheaper in the past...

Like, like if WAHA natural gas price

starts flirting with 0 soon in Texas...

NYMEX, cheap natural gas may only

be part of the revenue mix in Texas...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

If the gov't can manipulate gasoline and fuel

demand numbers from Sept.,2023

to March, 2024, then any of the

numbers can be groomed...

Fuel demand was high last year during

tail gate season and posted lower to

keep gas price down during holidays...

Those numbers appear to have been

added back in during January thru March

to make it look like demand is better to

drive the seasonal gas price rise...

Nobody was on roads other than necessary

in January and stayed slow thru February...

Employment numbers for January looked

like a scy fy script rolled out...

Common Sense, it only takes a small amount

of thinking about stadiums in fall, college

football season holding 70,000 to 100,000

fans each weekend compared to spring,

college basketball madness having four

sites that hold up to 12,000 fans to really

make you question the data putter-outers...


Hello, there can't be much left to average

into Weak April fuel demand this year...


The big drop off in diesel demand last week

should show that refiners that produce too

much gas now will be looking for a place

to run the diesel byproduct of the gasoline

production on Sale At...

We buy deals-not spin...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Not making anything off the blood being

spilled to drive oil price up...

Seems hard to keep it if you make

it for the wrong reasons...

There will be plenty of money spent

from the spin, just not mine...

It does help keep world population

down...


So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: VLO Up $5 (as of 2:20 p.m. EDT). Glad I kept some of my position. Once again, VTLE is stuck in a rut. Again, the glass half-full spin is that they are selling lots of oil that is not hedged.
Given the mess in the Middle East, would the U.S. have any influence on the Saudis to get them to turn on the spigots. Would tghe idiot Biden regime even try. To their sick way of thinking, the higher oil goes, the higher the sales of EV's in the U.S. will be.

[littlejohn]

China still gets any cheap oil that they

want to buy,

so everything should be OK...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: Gasoline prices
At one of the higher priced stations, saw petrol at $3.60!
If my lawn cutter decides to raise his charge due to higher fuel costs, I'll point out that he uses a battery powered lawn mower.
If the higher prices last a few months, the Fed will not be able to lower rates, which will cost the U.S. Government a LOT of money over the long run. If the Fed signals it will not be lowering rates, but staying the course, look out below in the stock market.

[littlejohn]

Vlo and Psx are meme plays now...

nothing to do with growing units

in sales...



earnings release waves ahead for

the entire oil/gas sector...

So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Rising fuel cost will kill an economy already

ailing and slowing down...

Didn't think the market downturn would

start until Thursday,

missed loading some SQQQ action...

My view is that the already slow economy

gets worse as gas prices start topping

5/gal. in Cal in more places...

The slower rail and shipping industry now

gets hit with higher fuel costs, on top of

higher wage costs added late in 2023...

Early to add on positions to watch the

downer action roll on is my view...

Not changing it because of spin heads...

Opec+ staying low on production will

confirm the world economy still sux...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

LJ: Josh Brown, a regular guest on CNBC, recommended IEO today, saying it has a way to go. Consistent with your view, and he has access info the fund managers use.
I cannot believe the price of VLO. Crazy.

[bbotcs]

lj: The MPG on the Ridgeline is 20. I think the economy is slowing down and they might sit on the lot for months and months and the dealership will be happy to unload them.
They are atypical pickups in that they are on a car chassis.
More for the weekend warrior than a serious pickup truck buyer.

[littlejohn]

Supply of oil has been plentiful this year

as the price has rose...

Natural gas price gouging in 2022

came during during plentiful period

of supply under Biden...

Don't bet against higher gas prices...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

As those Honda pick-me-ups sit there on the lot for months on end, I might get one at a decent price!

[bbotcs]

lj: There might be a plan afoot to flood the U.S. with cheap EV's from China the next time gas prices go into the stratosphere. Gasoline will never go above $4.50 a gallon. The supply is too plentiful.

[littlejohn]

Please don't leave your chit on our mountain...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/everest-climbers-will-have-to-take-their-poop-away-with-them-as-nepal-tries-to-address-growing-waste-problem/1634952


Mother Nature deserves to be left

clean and brisk...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Traffic was very light in early afternoon

on Monday...

It was nice going in stores with very

few people shopping...

Lighter than it should be even after

a busy weekend...

It tells me that even most late, tax

refunds are likely spent by now...

Which also tells me that used car

prices now start their price slide

for most of the rest of the year...

Efficient gas use autos should buck

the price downtrend while bigger suvs

and trucks will suffer more price falls...

Constantly rising gas prices do move

consumer spending habits in autos...

No one wants a used EV with high

price battery replacement costs if

one or more goes bad though...


Overall, the abundance of many used

items that peeps are swapping in public

forums have seen low price trends and

that helps avoid higher new cost pricing

when budgets get tighter...

Goofy, way over priced raw land prices

still buck the overall trend in pricing

that I've been watching...

Land that is Near a Creek,blah, blah, blah...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

200/bbl oil?,,, Jews may have loaded up

on oil plays before going into Gaza...

Israel genocide added over 300 dead

bodies at the hospital in Gaza that their

military has been attacking for days...

A cover story of a strike on an embassy

that could have been emptied beforehand

was put out to try to over shadow the

constant killing of innocent folks in Gaza...


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Up-as-Iranian-Embassy-in-Syria-Leveled-in-Airstrike.html

Democratic war party added a jet fighter

sale to their war conquest...

$10/gallon pump prices could have candidates

of the Democratic war party looking for

new jobs after the elections this fall...


This fall there will be plenty of oil data to

review of the summer prices for folks to

reflect on when voting...


So we watch...LJ

[littlejohn]

Days of praying to sell at high prices now

come back around frequently...

You are free to fish more now...

quite convenient timing...

So we watch...LJ

[bbotcs]

lj: But, but, but, VTLE is issuing another tranche of securities--$100M worth--to pay off debt with higher interest rates.
I sold VLO and EGY way too soon, but I still have small positions, which are antidotes to despondency over the premature selling.

[bbotcs]

lj: Truist is probably at the head of the line.

[littlejohn]

Cal seeing $6/gal. to $7/gal. gasoline

soon if we see oil move on up

to near $100/bbl looking probable...

Oil price rise has been aided by

EIA data that fuel demand has been

above year ago levels in 1st quarter...

Everyone knows that natural gas demand

has been down due to warmer weather...

My own weekly watch on gasoline demand

versus the year ago level has been

seeing lower demand...

But there has been spin info put out

that says EIA data shows a year over

year increase in fuel demand...

Oil future traders have been going with

the spin data out there...

Which means that increasing momo in

oil price could see it spike at anytime

due to the betting positioning now...

Nevermore quoth the Raven will there

be any interest rates dropping this year

if oil prices hold these levels or spike...

Take the over on Cal gas prices until the

oil price rise momo drops...

VTLE hedges on over 50,000 bbls/day

of oil production moves up to about

$74+/bbl. in 2nd quarter and above

the $73+/bbl. hedges in 2nd quarter...

They missed the boat on the price

pump up on oil this go round, Imo...


So we watch..LJ