Velocityshares Daily 2X Vix Medium Term (TVIZ)

[gldtimer]

The Real Trouble (cracks) Started One Year Earlier.

...the euro/$ crash was the trumpet the wall is coming down.

Secular trends in growth and inflation both crossed into winter in the summer of 2007.

Today the secular trend is firmly establish4d in Fall (growth with low inflation/deflation, BUT the trend for both is down meaning still lower inflation or higher deflation, and slower growth or recession. This of course is winter.

It appears that if the rate of decline in growth continues at its present pace by the end of the year we could well cross over and then it may take another year for markets to realize what happened if 07-08 repeats.

Ray D. is going a 70% chance for a recession by 2020 which would be consistent with my CURRENT thinking. However, forecasting that far out is like saying what the temperature will be on X-mas Eve 2020.