United States Steel Corporation (X)

[Saving Grace]

Trading-Houses Will Collapse As "Margin-Call Doom-Loop" Goes Global, Trafigura CFO Warns
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trading-houses-will-collapse-margin-call-doom-loop-goes-global-trafigura-cfo-warns

[1hot toddy]

glad u bought yr baby back. we had 17% short, they got BURNED$$$$$=.

morgan or smith slammed us at 19/21 and now stupid morgan says price target $3 less than what it is now and we earn 17/20$ a share so even now we have a 2 pe

STILL UNDERVALUED PLUS CO BUYING BACK TON OF SHARES PLUS MAY STILL HAVE SHORTS

UP UP AND AWAY

[tootalljones]

i bought a huge chunk yesterday

[1hot toddy]

and we had 17% short. SHORTIES GETTING BURNED $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[1hot toddy]

i see all your posts. u like me LOVED THIS STOCK AS WAS AND IS SOOOO CHEAP

2 PE TO THE MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

morgan stanley dont know shit. they downgraded at like 18 or 21

THIS WAS YOUR BABY U SHOULD NEVER OF SOLD. BUY BACK IN WE R ON WAY TO 60, THEN 100. WE R GOING TO MAKE 20$ THIS YEAR 5PE IS 100

[1hot toddy]

man did u fu. u should of never sold your xxxxx. even at todays price pe is 2. u should of bought it back when started to go up

[ernie44]

WOW--nice volume and rally

[1hot toddy]

congrats to us longs who always believed we had a MONSTER HERE. 1/2 PE $$

STILL UNDERVALUED SHOULD BE MORE THAN A DOUBLE FROM HERE BACK TO 60S++

[ListenToMe]

Good day, I gave you a follow but im no longer a paid member so I can't send a PM.

If you'd like to discuss some picks, check out the PSYCF board.

[peterquinnvet]

$X was 1 of 10 of Investor Place's top 10 best new stocks to buy for March.

https://investorplace.com/2022/03/10-new-stocks-to-buy-now-for-march-2022/

[1hot toddy]

WE R TRADING AT LESS THAN 2 PE SOOOOOOOOOOO UNDERVALUED $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[tootalljones]

I actually sold a quite healthy chunk of my X on friday, and bought silver, slv...gonna buy some silj tomorrow made a cool 1.9 million in well under a month, so I am trying not to give it back. My idea of diversifying in owning just 1 thing........but it is a style which has benefited me.

[livendi]

thanks,God bless and good luck

[tootalljones]

Jack4 hours ago
Ukraine produces 20M tons of steel annually. 20M tons is equivalent to 27% of US steel production. In other words, it's a big deal. Russia produces 3x that. The steelmageddon thesis (may it Rest In Peace) was predicated on 12M tons of new production. All of that and more has been temporarily removed from the market by this war. If Russian sanctions get extended to steel, then all bets are off on what a ceiling could look like since Russia produces 3x the volume of Ukraine in addition to being a major global supplier or pig iron and iron ore. HRC Futures are now at $1450 or higher all the way out to Dec. 2022. It is now likely we will revisit and even surpass the previous $1900 range. What a year shaping up for X.

[tootalljones]

livendi thank you, please consider getting long here. Basic double by year end, and then another next year.........

[tootalljones]

Cash flow will be even better than this article suggests. And indeed, this article suggests X will sell for 2022 will be a ridiculously just 2X FREE cash flow:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493613-us-steel-stock-priced-at-2x-fcf-seems-cheap

In addition, the balance sheet will be pristine. Bullet proof. As of this very moment, the company is hovering around zero net debt, and each billion going forward will pose a real problem: what to do with the money? The shares are being dramatically repurchased by the company as well. It may have just 225 million shares by mid year, depending on the pace of buying. Expect a new buyback announcement at Q1 earnings.

anyway

here is why the free cash flow will even be better than 2X FCF:

2022 earnings are predicted to go down based on lowered steel prices but the windfall increase in steel prices is significant. As a comparison, here are the average steel prices X got in their flat roll segment from q1 to Q4 per net ton..$888, $1078, $1325, and a high of $1432. The $2bln EBITDA quarter occured in q3 as Q4 production volume was downnto seasonal maintenance and slow down. With hrc pricing now in the $1300 to $1500 level for the rest of the year, there is a good chance the company will exceed the $5.5bln in EBITDA earnings last quarter which would lead to $15/sh with no major adjustments. The other major factor in earnings is that European steel pricing shot up 50% in the last month. US steel europe accounts for about 25 to 28% of total tons shipped by the company. In 2021, the ave steel prices they got in Euros were 620, 750, 969, and 940. Currently, the amounts are 1140 for the later months to 1359 which are all higher than the highest ave price in any quarter last year. X made $975 mln in Europe all of last year. That may increase $500mln to $1bln just on pricing alone. If volumes increase materially which it should, the added profits may be over $1bln. This is another reason why X should outperform other steel companies.
Please also bear in mind that the company has ALREADY locked in almost 40% of 2022 pricing far far higher than current price of steel, something along the lines of $1,400 to as high as $1,700, perhaps even a little higher as these contracts were largely inked in the back half of 2021 when HRC surpassed 1900 dollars.

[livendi]

u smart

[tootalljones]

the odds are high that X has established a new support now at the 30 dollar level, give or take..,,Anybody can look at the one year chart and see now we have broken into a new zone, which is in accord with X's glowing fundamentals, balance sheet and share buyback programs which is rich..
..I look for the massive trillions of dollars to steadily filter out of tech, ...and it does not have to be a rout, but a sizeable chunk of those trillions to continue to move into commodity stocks and equities, and X will garner a front row seat as a candidate for that ubiquitous money.............all the market needs to do is look at the numbers which X has, and the potential for PE expansion in an inflationary environment which is almost assured. Russian, Ukranian and chinese steel is no longer a threat.....

[tootalljones]

As of today: Apple stock vs. X comparison.
Aapl Market Cap 2.66 Trillion per yahoo finance, friday close 3/4/22
PE Ratio (TTM) 27.13
EPS (TTM) 6.01
vs.
X Market Cap 8.2 Billion (per Yahoo finance, friday close 3/4/22)
PE Ratio (TTM) 2.11
EPS (TTM) 14.88

X costs less than 1/300 as much as Apple, and makes almost 2.5 times the net earnings per share. Does anybody really think that over time X's share price won't rocket higher?.. with its pristine balance sheet and eyepopping earnings? Remember too, HRC prices are now RISING, the bottom is in.

some of the other leading Tech "blue chippers" like Tesla (PE = 170), Apple is considered a conservative tech company, unlike most of the rest of the r tech companies with PE's that are 2 or 3X as high, as Apples.
Conclusion: X an 90 dollar stock in 2 years? All time high was 184
The float is small, and the company has been buying back huge quantities of stock this quarter. Sitting on more cash than it knows what to do with, Billions in cash.

[tootalljones]

Wall Street Bets is on the hunt to make X the latest MEME stock..... like gamestock GME or AME...both of which went up in a short period of time 15 to 25 fold in a short period of time? It is trending higher on Wall Street Bets "mentions." It might catch fire.
It has massive shorts who are sitting ducks, and the meme crowd loves to crush the shorts. Like GME and AME, X has the historic blood lines as an american company. https://www.quiverquant.com/wallstreetbets/?utm_source=advfn

[tootalljones]

as I said, the consolidation after the breakout will be short. maybe a day or two? who knows...but we are in a breakout now...........

[tootalljones]

excellent, great info.

[tootalljones]

This is one of those rare times, when the breakout has already occurred, and now the stock is testing it, dilly dallying around. EVERYBODY WHO WANTS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SCUM STOCK MARKET AND WALL STREET, if you are a regular person, should be buying today. Just trust that it jumped out of a 15 month trading range on health volume preceded by a power move up and supported by a dozen fundamentals, internal and external.

How can you not be a pig and load up?

I have. The s/p may dilly dally, but trust me, the funds see the breakout clear as day, but even they just drop a toe in, when they should be jumping in with everything they've got.............o well.

[peterquinnvet]

$x made Nasdaq's list for 4 Top Infrastructure Stocks To Watch As Senate Passes $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-top-infrastructure-stocks-to-watch-as-senate-passes-%241-trillion-infrastructure-bill-2021

[tootalljones]

steel futures up over 10% blasting higher, over 1200.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/hrn00

[tootalljones]

Steel prices have clearly bottomed and look to be rocketing higher. (see chart, up 65 bucks today alone) = massive profits for X, and remember, almost 40% of this year's product is already under contract and will sell much closer to 1500, a phenomenal price. Last year, the company was rolling in massive profits, and all that being said, the first Q of 2021 averaged 875 bucks per unit steel.
This year good be even more profitable. And all the while the company is removing stock every single day with 750 million in stock buyback. And in a month and a half, the company may well authorize another 500 million in further buybacks, reducing the shares far lower.
The company must do something with the windfall profits each month. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/hrn00

[tootalljones]

been buying on an obvious buy signal: yesterday was a major breakout of a 15 month tight trading range to the upside on very healthy volume. The breakout from a range, or breakdown from a trading range rule is often wrong, but far more often correct. this is the stock market, which means to maximize gain, you go with the firm signal until proven wrong.

[tootalljones]

Aapl vs. X. KISS, keep it simple S_____
Apple Market Cap 2.69 Trillion (as of 3/3/22)
PE Ratio (TTM) 27.69
EPS (TTM) 6.01
vs.
X Market Cap 7.5 Billion (as of 3/3/22)
PE Ratio (TTM) 1.94
EPS (TTM) 14.88

X costs just 1/360 as much as Apple, and makes almost 2.5 times the net earnings per share. Does anybody really think that over time X's share price won't rocket higher? Now that the dumping as stopped, with its pristine balance sheet and eyepopping earnings? Remember too, HRC prices are now RISING, the bottom is past.

And remember, compared with some of the other leading Tech "blue chippers" like Tesla (PE = 170), Apple is considered a conservative tech company, unlike most of the rest of the r tech companies with PE's that are 2 or 3X as high, as Apples..
Conclusion: X an 80 dollar stock in 2 years? All time high was 184
The float is relatively small as is, around 260? and the company has been buying back huge quantities of stock this quarter. Sitting on more cash than it knows what to do with

[tootalljones]

Gentlemen, as I predicted, we are looking at a breakout, today or tomorrow....sitting on 185K shares. Won't say I am done buying, but it will have to have a little pullback on this rocket ship.

Should this enlarge to a PE of just 3, we are looking at a 50% further gain in the share price from today. Seems a no brainer between now and year end.....which is in accord w/ my short term year end target of $45. per share.

[tootalljones]

From another poster, inflation is here for a fairly long time, far worse than what the government bureau of labor statistics liars are relating, 7%. I they told the truth, 14%, the country would be even more bankrupt since social security and the entire welfare monstrosity is tied to the cpi..............but they won't let SS ever go up 14% per year.

"I’m increasingly of the view that the market will be range-bound this year and perhaps next. Inflation and Fed tightening are titanic forces. The turmoil in Ukraine may have limited impact on US markets for now, but who knows where it goes? At some point, Western leaders may be compelled to stop funding Russia’s military aggression with petrodollars, to cut off Russia and its oligarchs from the global financial system, and to get serious about the defense of Taiwan before the CCP takes advantage of our abject dependence on China for essential manufactured goods.
Inflation has me especially concerned. A few anecdotes:
1. My primary home has two identical hot water heaters. We replaced one in 2018 and the other this week. The price for the one installed this week had risen 67%. (On top of propane prices being up 40%+ over the past year.)
2. We have a 16-yo double oven with a burned-out relay board and fans in need of replacement. With an appliance that old, my first instinct was to replace it. The salesman at our local appliance center convinced me otherwise. A new model that fit our dimensions would have cost $6k plus installation costs. And he wasn’t sure when he could get one – it might take months. We opted to spend $1200 for repair.
3. The prices I’m seeing quoted for automotive service are mind-boggling. As a hobby, I do a lot of my own auto work. To avoid domestic strife, however, I normally have my wife’s 2015 SUV professionally serviced. We put $5k into a major service last month – a price that surprised me given the routine nature of most of the work. So when the check engine light came on a few days later, I took the trouble of diagnosing the issue myself -- a bad thermostat. The dealer wanted nearly $1k to replace it. I bought the OEM part on Amazon for $40 and did the work myself in less than 2 hours.
***
I relate these stories not because any of these price hikes are unbearable for my family – we are financially secure and doing fine. But because I’m well aware there are millions of American households that cannot take these price increases in stride. As the free fiat money showered on the population in 2020 and 2021 is spent away, inflation will gut-punch the typical family’s spending power. The economy will feel the effects".

[tootalljones]

https://www.pringturner.com/five-charts-that-make-the-case-for-a-bull-market-in-commodities/

[Lowjack]

[tootalljones]

the authors conclusion from 5 charts that span many generations on commodities, is that we have turned the corner and are now in a general commodities bull market, and that inflation is not "transitory".....an argument that the FED has tried to promote, when in fact, they want to promote higher inflation.

His conclusion is that eventually, after years of a commodity bull market, "dislocations" occur that will then trigger a general bear market.

X's all time high is 184.

[tootalljones]

close of 30, possibly 50 cents less, is a Katie Bar the Door Breakout.
X traded above 30 in the past year ONLY intraday, but never closed at that 30 or even close to 30. X has been in a very long consolidation, 15 months, ready to slingshot to entirely different price range. This is now a strong impulsive move based on rock solid fundamentals and an absurd PE, and an HRC price which now appears to have based. Throw in current events and we are about ready for an explosive breakout higher which will tear the intraday high (30.57) and closing high (29.33) of
August 18 into confetti newspaper. We are soon set to obviously blast off...
Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Aug 20, 2021 27.63 28.04 26.63 27.01 26.90 17,968,500
Aug 19, 2021 28.50 28.58 26.91 27.33 27.22 28,821,000
Aug 18, 2021 28.06 30.57 27.88 29.45 29.33 36,758,900
Aug 17, 2021 28.56 28.98 27.58 28.26 28.14 19,164,600

[tootalljones]

For the uninitiated let me say confidently that the 50 year era of outsourcing and global raw material sourcing and cut throat pricing is officially over. In five years, steel companies will sell at 12x earnings and prices will be $1000-2500 per ton.

[tootalljones]

U.S. Steel.

[tootalljones]

U.S. Steel.

[tootalljones]

just grabbed a last 1500 shares and for me, that is enough. They say in the thoroughbred industry, first you feed the horse, and then hope he feeds you.
Here is a genetic freak marvel, a thousand year horse perhaps? where nature experimented with biology. It is completely unclear how fast he could actually run. In this race, each quarter, he ran faster than the one before, and with no horse challenging him, because horse run faster if they are challenged by another racehorse. They will kick it into that last gear but he was just doing this on his own....faster and faster

[tootalljones]

The Tech Takedown continues. The vast majority of tech stocks are down at least 40%, and should go far lower.
The 5 or 6 Captains of the tech world, tsla,google,facebook,msft,aapl, ...must also go dramatically lower, and the possibility is, that at least some of this Mt Everest size money, will come into a stock with a PE of 1.85, and a superb balance sheet and making half of its market cap in a single year.

If any significant percentage of tech investors diversity to commodities, X is an unavoidable stock for them to consider. The money in tech is ginormous....just a whiff will put X up to 45 bucks fairly quickly.

Tech has become over the past 20 years a major portion of the S + P, i think somewheres around 35% (although now going down)....so this index getting hammered is not necessarily bad, provided it comes from tech stocks with PEs that average 50.

[tootalljones]

Rule 7 Gaps. Never ever buy a 3rd gap, but a 2nd Gap up, like today, is buyable early in a major stock move, but not later in a stock's move higher...
I Added a little today, did I catch the very bottom of this 2nd Gap up? It will probably close as even 2nd gap ups can be dicey. What the hell. You only live once.


Status Action Quantity

Symbol Type Price

Act. Price

Time-in-Force Reported


Filled Buy 1000 X Limit 27.39 -- -- 09:30:33 03/01/22



Filled Buy 971 X Limit 27.33 -- -- 09:34:21 03/01/22


Filled Buy 529 X Limit 27.33 -- -- 09:34:21 03/01/22

Indicates non-standard option
Market data accompanied by D is delayed by at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ and options and 20 minutes for AMEX and NYSE. Duration of the delay for other exchanges varies.

[tootalljones]

Rule 5 The value of technical analysis, is there any? X's current chart can be found here on Stock Charts. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Pump in the 2 year chart and you will see that X has been in a trading range now for almost 16 months. I think we are gonna break out of this range to the upside, based on obvious X fundamentals and more importantly the velocity of this current move upwards. Just hang onto a stock with a tremendous profile (great valuation numbers), and sooner or later, after it churns, and when it gets ready, it will generally go up.

Is tech analysis of any value? Most of the stuff is largely imaginary, but not all of it completely. Somewhat, in breakouts through longer term resistance, and breakdowns through support, it can give you a little more conviction, and under my other rule, which is to take big swings, will permit buying more of the stock in question (or immediately, and i mean IMMEDIATELY dumping all of it in the event of a breakdown through resistance).
Following these rules can make you a lot of money, and more importantly, save you from catastrophic loses. Rule 6: at all costs, avoid the catastrophic loss, i.e. getting fond of a stock, or in love, and following it down. Follow the rules at all time. Often they do not work, but much more often this simple rule 5 will give you a huge edge over time.

[tootalljones]

Rule 4: Margin, a book unto itself for later, how to use it and deal with it and manage it and not go crazy and knowing when to recognize you have misused it.........

[tootalljones]

And all this combined with another rule a dangerous one, but you don't make ALPHA buying etfs or the Spiders or QQQs....Take big swings. That is critical rule 3. Once you can see what might be a major opportunity, take big swings; do not be afraid to margin and load up when the market presents wild undervaluation. Bet the friggin ranch. Even Warren Buffett said be a pig at times, ...and that guy is the biggest con artist salesman in stock history, but he is right, don't be afraid to be a pig. If you invest like a little old lady, that will be your life, basically, a captive of the financial industry, rather than owning these scum b a g s.

[tootalljones]

Another rule to live by, which almost all retail investors break (most do not even recognize it), is to be a quick seller if the Thesis appears to be failing. You must be ready to sell fast in a matter of an hour or a matter of minutes if there is evidence of failure. You do not wait until your idea is obviously wrong based on the price, because then you already have lost so much. Better to jettison, and miss an opportunity, and buy another idea, then to hang out and hang out as the stock goes down, and "hoping" which is what retail does all the time, that "she'll come back"...by then you have already broken the rule. Jesse Livermore said, If I wanted to get out, I got out, I did not wait around, I did not wait until the stock came back to me, I did not wait until I got some of my money back.........

The top guru traders on Wall street are what I am, a very fast seller. And what you learn over time, is that you sell 4 out of 5 ideas, you jettisom them quick, because things are starting to add up, or seem to add up, against your thesis, so you just bail, you don't ask questions, and if you are wrong in bailing, that is the way it goes. I wrack up over 100 million a year in bailing out, and sometimes I make a major mistake to do so, but that is the way the cookie crumbles. I don't hang around. The stocks are just letters to me.
As Tony Montana said in Scarface, "don't get high on your own supply." Actually he did not say it, Frank said it, and his girlfriend said it.

[tootalljones]

There are a lot of challenges to making a fortune but the first is to try to make real money without assuming a lot of risk. That is very hard to do. This ensures, if you can do this, a continued portfolio rise --- presuming we do not go into a bear market for commodity stocks as of now, which is a low risk..............there is so much overvalued now but hoping we see a steady move of money into commodity stocks, X is by far the cheapest quality commodity stock north america, for several reasons but they don't matter. This is the thesis now. X is a low risk, wildly undervalued commodity stock which is a quality name turned and tossed and almost lost, and now the cheapest company in north america. The thesis also is that money will steadily continue to pour out of Tech which now still has wild PEs and especially absurd compared to X, and that X will garner some of that money looking for a home. If my thesis is correct, you will see the price gradually rise accompanied by steadily increasing volume over time. Volume generally precedes price. Volume won't go nuts overnight or in a month, but it will gradually tend to rise, in fits and starts.

[tootalljones]

believe what you want.... but could you make that stuff up? I know I could not....not in a thousand years, too lazy, but my old secretary could if she had enough time. The total for that day, since you are interested, was 415+K.....over 174K shares now but I am done buying.....
for now. I think this will be a 45 dollar stock by year end.
My habit it to buy early and hard anything that looks like a breakout with tremendous fundamentals, and X fits that. Buy early and often.
Grab the money now using margin, let it soar but don't buy later.
This guy is possibly the best stock picker I have ever come across in over 30 years, home run after home run and once he picks something, he stays patient and lets his idea unfold....he has made many of his clients wealthy

His new column: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481748-us-steel-a-breakout-stock-for-2022

[Saving Grace]

Proves nothing. Big hat and no cattle is all I see.

[tootalljones]

Elon Musk at the 21:25 minute mark describes the incredible qualities of stainless steel in constructing his spaceship on the Space X project, calling it the single best design decision (using stainless steel) in the entire project!

[tootalljones]

I think X has a lot going for it right now. It looks like it is breaking out of a year long channel. The numbers are eye popping. I almost never buy heavily shorted stocks, because I respect the shorts, but the studies are clear, over time they do not fare well, and for many reasons, one of which is stocks go up over time. .....In a commodities bull market, that is the assumption here. If we are in a commodities bull market, which seems highly probable when you look at inflation and what commodities ACROSS THE BOARD, we surely are in a commodities bull market and these things come along once ever ten or twenty years historically. And we are in inning one or two......X must do well in such an environment, given just this one assumption. Its numbers, profile, all the ratios you can evaluate a stock, are off the charts cheap and it is a serious company, not some little biotech or small mid tier company. All steel companies will do well, and in America these days, there aren't many of them, about 3 or 4 serious ones, for the world's largest economy.

Where is all that beat up tech money gonna go? A lot of it won't stay in tech? ....a tech stock with a PE of 45 will have share holders who have lost half of their money and they will look at X and see that 1.8 PE and it various other numbers and they will say, what the heck, I am gonna take a chance with X........because I am sick of losing in money in big and little tech.....iF X appreciates to a PE of just 4, this stock will go bonkers higher....and it won't stop at 4. In a commodities bull the PE should be more like 8-10 imho....given what it owns.

Money always rotates in the markets.
All my eggs, for now, are in the X basket.

[tootalljones]

when america was great and produced itself half of the world's GDP.