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Alias Born | 04/26/2010 |
Thursday, March 03, 2022 7:49:21 AM
"I’m increasingly of the view that the market will be range-bound this year and perhaps next. Inflation and Fed tightening are titanic forces. The turmoil in Ukraine may have limited impact on US markets for now, but who knows where it goes? At some point, Western leaders may be compelled to stop funding Russia’s military aggression with petrodollars, to cut off Russia and its oligarchs from the global financial system, and to get serious about the defense of Taiwan before the CCP takes advantage of our abject dependence on China for essential manufactured goods.
Inflation has me especially concerned. A few anecdotes:
1. My primary home has two identical hot water heaters. We replaced one in 2018 and the other this week. The price for the one installed this week had risen 67%. (On top of propane prices being up 40%+ over the past year.)
2. We have a 16-yo double oven with a burned-out relay board and fans in need of replacement. With an appliance that old, my first instinct was to replace it. The salesman at our local appliance center convinced me otherwise. A new model that fit our dimensions would have cost $6k plus installation costs. And he wasn’t sure when he could get one – it might take months. We opted to spend $1200 for repair.
3. The prices I’m seeing quoted for automotive service are mind-boggling. As a hobby, I do a lot of my own auto work. To avoid domestic strife, however, I normally have my wife’s 2015 SUV professionally serviced. We put $5k into a major service last month – a price that surprised me given the routine nature of most of the work. So when the check engine light came on a few days later, I took the trouble of diagnosing the issue myself -- a bad thermostat. The dealer wanted nearly $1k to replace it. I bought the OEM part on Amazon for $40 and did the work myself in less than 2 hours.
***
I relate these stories not because any of these price hikes are unbearable for my family – we are financially secure and doing fine. But because I’m well aware there are millions of American households that cannot take these price increases in stride. As the free fiat money showered on the population in 2020 and 2021 is spent away, inflation will gut-punch the typical family’s spending power. The economy will feel the effects".
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