United States Steel Corporation (X)

[tootalljones]

Steel prices have clearly bottomed and look to be rocketing higher. (see chart, up 65 bucks today alone) = massive profits for X, and remember, almost 40% of this year's product is already under contract and will sell much closer to 1500, a phenomenal price. Last year, the company was rolling in massive profits, and all that being said, the first Q of 2021 averaged 875 bucks per unit steel.
This year good be even more profitable. And all the while the company is removing stock every single day with 750 million in stock buyback. And in a month and a half, the company may well authorize another 500 million in further buybacks, reducing the shares far lower.
The company must do something with the windfall profits each month. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/hrn00

[tootalljones]

been buying on an obvious buy signal: yesterday was a major breakout of a 15 month tight trading range to the upside on very healthy volume. The breakout from a range, or breakdown from a trading range rule is often wrong, but far more often correct. this is the stock market, which means to maximize gain, you go with the firm signal until proven wrong.

[tootalljones]

Aapl vs. X. KISS, keep it simple S_____
Apple Market Cap 2.69 Trillion (as of 3/3/22)
PE Ratio (TTM) 27.69
EPS (TTM) 6.01
vs.
X Market Cap 7.5 Billion (as of 3/3/22)
PE Ratio (TTM) 1.94
EPS (TTM) 14.88

X costs just 1/360 as much as Apple, and makes almost 2.5 times the net earnings per share. Does anybody really think that over time X's share price won't rocket higher? Now that the dumping as stopped, with its pristine balance sheet and eyepopping earnings? Remember too, HRC prices are now RISING, the bottom is past.

And remember, compared with some of the other leading Tech "blue chippers" like Tesla (PE = 170), Apple is considered a conservative tech company, unlike most of the rest of the r tech companies with PE's that are 2 or 3X as high, as Apples..
Conclusion: X an 80 dollar stock in 2 years? All time high was 184
The float is relatively small as is, around 260? and the company has been buying back huge quantities of stock this quarter. Sitting on more cash than it knows what to do with

[tootalljones]

Gentlemen, as I predicted, we are looking at a breakout, today or tomorrow....sitting on 185K shares. Won't say I am done buying, but it will have to have a little pullback on this rocket ship.

Should this enlarge to a PE of just 3, we are looking at a 50% further gain in the share price from today. Seems a no brainer between now and year end.....which is in accord w/ my short term year end target of $45. per share.

[tootalljones]

From another poster, inflation is here for a fairly long time, far worse than what the government bureau of labor statistics liars are relating, 7%. I they told the truth, 14%, the country would be even more bankrupt since social security and the entire welfare monstrosity is tied to the cpi..............but they won't let SS ever go up 14% per year.

"I’m increasingly of the view that the market will be range-bound this year and perhaps next. Inflation and Fed tightening are titanic forces. The turmoil in Ukraine may have limited impact on US markets for now, but who knows where it goes? At some point, Western leaders may be compelled to stop funding Russia’s military aggression with petrodollars, to cut off Russia and its oligarchs from the global financial system, and to get serious about the defense of Taiwan before the CCP takes advantage of our abject dependence on China for essential manufactured goods.
Inflation has me especially concerned. A few anecdotes:
1. My primary home has two identical hot water heaters. We replaced one in 2018 and the other this week. The price for the one installed this week had risen 67%. (On top of propane prices being up 40%+ over the past year.)
2. We have a 16-yo double oven with a burned-out relay board and fans in need of replacement. With an appliance that old, my first instinct was to replace it. The salesman at our local appliance center convinced me otherwise. A new model that fit our dimensions would have cost $6k plus installation costs. And he wasn’t sure when he could get one – it might take months. We opted to spend $1200 for repair.
3. The prices I’m seeing quoted for automotive service are mind-boggling. As a hobby, I do a lot of my own auto work. To avoid domestic strife, however, I normally have my wife’s 2015 SUV professionally serviced. We put $5k into a major service last month – a price that surprised me given the routine nature of most of the work. So when the check engine light came on a few days later, I took the trouble of diagnosing the issue myself -- a bad thermostat. The dealer wanted nearly $1k to replace it. I bought the OEM part on Amazon for $40 and did the work myself in less than 2 hours.
***
I relate these stories not because any of these price hikes are unbearable for my family – we are financially secure and doing fine. But because I’m well aware there are millions of American households that cannot take these price increases in stride. As the free fiat money showered on the population in 2020 and 2021 is spent away, inflation will gut-punch the typical family’s spending power. The economy will feel the effects".

[tootalljones]

https://www.pringturner.com/five-charts-that-make-the-case-for-a-bull-market-in-commodities/

[Lowjack]

[tootalljones]

the authors conclusion from 5 charts that span many generations on commodities, is that we have turned the corner and are now in a general commodities bull market, and that inflation is not "transitory".....an argument that the FED has tried to promote, when in fact, they want to promote higher inflation.

His conclusion is that eventually, after years of a commodity bull market, "dislocations" occur that will then trigger a general bear market.

X's all time high is 184.

[tootalljones]

close of 30, possibly 50 cents less, is a Katie Bar the Door Breakout.
X traded above 30 in the past year ONLY intraday, but never closed at that 30 or even close to 30. X has been in a very long consolidation, 15 months, ready to slingshot to entirely different price range. This is now a strong impulsive move based on rock solid fundamentals and an absurd PE, and an HRC price which now appears to have based. Throw in current events and we are about ready for an explosive breakout higher which will tear the intraday high (30.57) and closing high (29.33) of
August 18 into confetti newspaper. We are soon set to obviously blast off...
Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Aug 20, 2021 27.63 28.04 26.63 27.01 26.90 17,968,500
Aug 19, 2021 28.50 28.58 26.91 27.33 27.22 28,821,000
Aug 18, 2021 28.06 30.57 27.88 29.45 29.33 36,758,900
Aug 17, 2021 28.56 28.98 27.58 28.26 28.14 19,164,600

[tootalljones]

For the uninitiated let me say confidently that the 50 year era of outsourcing and global raw material sourcing and cut throat pricing is officially over. In five years, steel companies will sell at 12x earnings and prices will be $1000-2500 per ton.

[tootalljones]

U.S. Steel.

[tootalljones]

U.S. Steel.

[tootalljones]

just grabbed a last 1500 shares and for me, that is enough. They say in the thoroughbred industry, first you feed the horse, and then hope he feeds you.
Here is a genetic freak marvel, a thousand year horse perhaps? where nature experimented with biology. It is completely unclear how fast he could actually run. In this race, each quarter, he ran faster than the one before, and with no horse challenging him, because horse run faster if they are challenged by another racehorse. They will kick it into that last gear but he was just doing this on his own....faster and faster

[tootalljones]

The Tech Takedown continues. The vast majority of tech stocks are down at least 40%, and should go far lower.
The 5 or 6 Captains of the tech world, tsla,google,facebook,msft,aapl, ...must also go dramatically lower, and the possibility is, that at least some of this Mt Everest size money, will come into a stock with a PE of 1.85, and a superb balance sheet and making half of its market cap in a single year.

If any significant percentage of tech investors diversity to commodities, X is an unavoidable stock for them to consider. The money in tech is ginormous....just a whiff will put X up to 45 bucks fairly quickly.

Tech has become over the past 20 years a major portion of the S + P, i think somewheres around 35% (although now going down)....so this index getting hammered is not necessarily bad, provided it comes from tech stocks with PEs that average 50.

[tootalljones]

Rule 7 Gaps. Never ever buy a 3rd gap, but a 2nd Gap up, like today, is buyable early in a major stock move, but not later in a stock's move higher...
I Added a little today, did I catch the very bottom of this 2nd Gap up? It will probably close as even 2nd gap ups can be dicey. What the hell. You only live once.


Status Action Quantity

Symbol Type Price

Act. Price

Time-in-Force Reported


Filled Buy 1000 X Limit 27.39 -- -- 09:30:33 03/01/22



Filled Buy 971 X Limit 27.33 -- -- 09:34:21 03/01/22


Filled Buy 529 X Limit 27.33 -- -- 09:34:21 03/01/22

Indicates non-standard option
Market data accompanied by D is delayed by at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ and options and 20 minutes for AMEX and NYSE. Duration of the delay for other exchanges varies.

[tootalljones]

Rule 5 The value of technical analysis, is there any? X's current chart can be found here on Stock Charts. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Pump in the 2 year chart and you will see that X has been in a trading range now for almost 16 months. I think we are gonna break out of this range to the upside, based on obvious X fundamentals and more importantly the velocity of this current move upwards. Just hang onto a stock with a tremendous profile (great valuation numbers), and sooner or later, after it churns, and when it gets ready, it will generally go up.

Is tech analysis of any value? Most of the stuff is largely imaginary, but not all of it completely. Somewhat, in breakouts through longer term resistance, and breakdowns through support, it can give you a little more conviction, and under my other rule, which is to take big swings, will permit buying more of the stock in question (or immediately, and i mean IMMEDIATELY dumping all of it in the event of a breakdown through resistance).
Following these rules can make you a lot of money, and more importantly, save you from catastrophic loses. Rule 6: at all costs, avoid the catastrophic loss, i.e. getting fond of a stock, or in love, and following it down. Follow the rules at all time. Often they do not work, but much more often this simple rule 5 will give you a huge edge over time.

[tootalljones]

Rule 4: Margin, a book unto itself for later, how to use it and deal with it and manage it and not go crazy and knowing when to recognize you have misused it.........

[tootalljones]

And all this combined with another rule a dangerous one, but you don't make ALPHA buying etfs or the Spiders or QQQs....Take big swings. That is critical rule 3. Once you can see what might be a major opportunity, take big swings; do not be afraid to margin and load up when the market presents wild undervaluation. Bet the friggin ranch. Even Warren Buffett said be a pig at times, ...and that guy is the biggest con artist salesman in stock history, but he is right, don't be afraid to be a pig. If you invest like a little old lady, that will be your life, basically, a captive of the financial industry, rather than owning these scum b a g s.

[tootalljones]

Another rule to live by, which almost all retail investors break (most do not even recognize it), is to be a quick seller if the Thesis appears to be failing. You must be ready to sell fast in a matter of an hour or a matter of minutes if there is evidence of failure. You do not wait until your idea is obviously wrong based on the price, because then you already have lost so much. Better to jettison, and miss an opportunity, and buy another idea, then to hang out and hang out as the stock goes down, and "hoping" which is what retail does all the time, that "she'll come back"...by then you have already broken the rule. Jesse Livermore said, If I wanted to get out, I got out, I did not wait around, I did not wait until the stock came back to me, I did not wait until I got some of my money back.........

The top guru traders on Wall street are what I am, a very fast seller. And what you learn over time, is that you sell 4 out of 5 ideas, you jettisom them quick, because things are starting to add up, or seem to add up, against your thesis, so you just bail, you don't ask questions, and if you are wrong in bailing, that is the way it goes. I wrack up over 100 million a year in bailing out, and sometimes I make a major mistake to do so, but that is the way the cookie crumbles. I don't hang around. The stocks are just letters to me.
As Tony Montana said in Scarface, "don't get high on your own supply." Actually he did not say it, Frank said it, and his girlfriend said it.

[tootalljones]

There are a lot of challenges to making a fortune but the first is to try to make real money without assuming a lot of risk. That is very hard to do. This ensures, if you can do this, a continued portfolio rise --- presuming we do not go into a bear market for commodity stocks as of now, which is a low risk..............there is so much overvalued now but hoping we see a steady move of money into commodity stocks, X is by far the cheapest quality commodity stock north america, for several reasons but they don't matter. This is the thesis now. X is a low risk, wildly undervalued commodity stock which is a quality name turned and tossed and almost lost, and now the cheapest company in north america. The thesis also is that money will steadily continue to pour out of Tech which now still has wild PEs and especially absurd compared to X, and that X will garner some of that money looking for a home. If my thesis is correct, you will see the price gradually rise accompanied by steadily increasing volume over time. Volume generally precedes price. Volume won't go nuts overnight or in a month, but it will gradually tend to rise, in fits and starts.

[tootalljones]

believe what you want.... but could you make that stuff up? I know I could not....not in a thousand years, too lazy, but my old secretary could if she had enough time. The total for that day, since you are interested, was 415+K.....over 174K shares now but I am done buying.....
for now. I think this will be a 45 dollar stock by year end.
My habit it to buy early and hard anything that looks like a breakout with tremendous fundamentals, and X fits that. Buy early and often.
Grab the money now using margin, let it soar but don't buy later.
This guy is possibly the best stock picker I have ever come across in over 30 years, home run after home run and once he picks something, he stays patient and lets his idea unfold....he has made many of his clients wealthy

His new column: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481748-us-steel-a-breakout-stock-for-2022

[Saving Grace]

Proves nothing. Big hat and no cattle is all I see.

[tootalljones]

Elon Musk at the 21:25 minute mark describes the incredible qualities of stainless steel in constructing his spaceship on the Space X project, calling it the single best design decision (using stainless steel) in the entire project!

[tootalljones]

I think X has a lot going for it right now. It looks like it is breaking out of a year long channel. The numbers are eye popping. I almost never buy heavily shorted stocks, because I respect the shorts, but the studies are clear, over time they do not fare well, and for many reasons, one of which is stocks go up over time. .....In a commodities bull market, that is the assumption here. If we are in a commodities bull market, which seems highly probable when you look at inflation and what commodities ACROSS THE BOARD, we surely are in a commodities bull market and these things come along once ever ten or twenty years historically. And we are in inning one or two......X must do well in such an environment, given just this one assumption. Its numbers, profile, all the ratios you can evaluate a stock, are off the charts cheap and it is a serious company, not some little biotech or small mid tier company. All steel companies will do well, and in America these days, there aren't many of them, about 3 or 4 serious ones, for the world's largest economy.

Where is all that beat up tech money gonna go? A lot of it won't stay in tech? ....a tech stock with a PE of 45 will have share holders who have lost half of their money and they will look at X and see that 1.8 PE and it various other numbers and they will say, what the heck, I am gonna take a chance with X........because I am sick of losing in money in big and little tech.....iF X appreciates to a PE of just 4, this stock will go bonkers higher....and it won't stop at 4. In a commodities bull the PE should be more like 8-10 imho....given what it owns.

Money always rotates in the markets.
All my eggs, for now, are in the X basket.

[tootalljones]

when america was great and produced itself half of the world's GDP.

[tootalljones]

Looks like Steel HRC has hit its much awaited bottom. X to the moon....a ridiculous PE and all that tech PE used to PEs or 35 or 45 or 65 or 85 is now looking for a home. How about 1.8 PE? A 7B market cap, sitting on 4B in cash and deploying 750 million now buying its own stock, retiring 10% or as much as 15% perhaps. You know they have been buying like crazy. Earnings this year will be steller or you might say, "stealer" because they have locked in contract prices for their sales at prices far higher than currently, up to 55% higher prices, and up to 40% of X's total annual sales for this year. Incredible. We are probably now art this point in time about net debt positive also, i forgot to add that.

[tootalljones]

wanna bet? ..

168.30 total shares, one day 415K gain.

here is just one account:
Filled Buy 437 X Limit 25.23 -- -- 09:56:49 02/25/22


Filled Buy 464 X Limit 25.23 -- -- 09:56:49 02/25/22


Filled Buy 99 X Limit 25.23 -- -- 09:56:48 02/25/22



Filled Buy 100 X Limit 25.32 -- -- 09:54:54 02/25/22


Filled Buy 600 X Limit 25.32 -- -- 09:54:54 02/25/22


Filled Buy 87 X Limit 25.32 -- -- 09:54:54 02/25/22


Filled Buy 13 X Limit 25.32 -- -- 09:54:54 02/25/22


Filled Buy 200 X Limit 25.32 -- -- 09:54:54 02/25/22



Filled Buy 11 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:37 02/25/22


Filled Buy 11 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:37 02/25/22


Filled Buy 11 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:37 02/25/22


Filled Buy 64 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:37 02/25/22


Filled Buy 300 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:40 02/25/22


Filled Buy 3 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:36 02/25/22


Filled Buy 2000 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:40 02/25/22


Filled Buy 199 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:40 02/25/22


Filled Buy 1 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:40 02/25/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 24.60 -- -- 09:35:40 02/25/22



Filled Buy 3500 X Limit 24.30 -- -- 15:52:20 02/24/22



Filled Buy 1000 X Market 23.605 -- -- 13:53:11 02/24/22



Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.64 -- -- 13:52:14 02/24/22


Filled Buy 571 X Limit 23.64 -- -- 13:52:17 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1829 X Limit 23.64 -- -- 13:52:17 02/24/22



Filled Buy 2000 X Limit 23.36 -- -- 12:20:28 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1890 X Limit 23.36 -- -- 12:20:28 02/24/22


Filled Buy 9000 X Limit 23.36 -- -- 12:20:28 02/24/22



Filled Buy 684 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.285 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 700 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 300 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 237 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 18 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 12 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 16 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 8 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:46 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:46 02/24/22


Filled Buy 97 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:44 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 200 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:19 02/24/22


Filled Buy 70 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:46 02/24/22


Filled Buy 12 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:44 02/24/22


Filled Buy 358 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:44 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1500 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:44 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:44 02/24/22


Filled Buy 79 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 23 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 380 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 2683 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:56 02/24/22


Filled Buy 12 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 10 X Limit 23.29 -- -- 12:15:37 02/24/22



Filled Buy 152 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 47 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 134 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 191 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 74 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1500 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1038 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 193 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 450 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 350 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 373 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 49 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:37 02/24/22


Filled Buy 3051 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 1700 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 438 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 600 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 89 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:34 02/24/22


Filled Buy 385 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:29 02/24/22


Filled Buy 121 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:29 02/24/22


Filled Buy 16 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:29 02/24/22


Filled Buy 38 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 183 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 82 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 75 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22


Filled Buy 371 X Limit 23.33 -- -- 12:13:38 02/24/22



Filled Buy 2200 X Limit 23.39 -- -- 12:09:44 02/24/22


Filled Buy 12800 X Limit 23.39 -- -- 12:09:44 02/24/22



Filled Buy 18000 X Market 23.40 -- -- 12:07:46 02/24/22



Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.445 -- -- 12:06:18 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.445 -- -- 12:06:18 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.445 -- -- 12:06:18 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Limit 23.445 -- -- 12:06:18 02/24/22


Filled Buy 9200 X Limit 23.45 -- -- 12:06:18 02/24/22


Filled Buy 5400 X Limit 23.45 -- -- 12:06:18 02/24/22



Filled Buy 19000 X Limit 23.4799 -- -- 12:05:07 02/24/22



Filled Buy 9000 X Market 23.3999 -- -- 12:02:25 02/24/22



Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 400 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 200 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 8 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.4399 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.4399 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 5572 X Market 23.44 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.4399 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.439 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 420 X Market 23.4399 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.435 -- -- 12:01:42 02/24/22



Filled Buy 4797 X Market 23.4591 -- -- 12:01:11 02/24/22


Filled Buy 203 X Market 23.4591 -- -- 12:01:11 02/24/22



Filled Buy 200 X Market 23.475 -- -- 11:59:54 02/24/22


Filled Buy 5100 X Market 23.48 -- -- 11:59:54 02/24/22


Filled Buy 4500 X Market 23.48 -- -- 11:59:54 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.475 -- -- 11:59:54 02/24/22


Filled Buy 100 X Market 23.475 -- -- 11:59:54 02/24/22



Filled Buy 600 X Limit 23.40 -- -- 11:55:04 02/24/22


Filled Buy 349 X Limit 23.40 -- -- 11:55:04 02/24/22


Filled Buy 500 X Limit 23.40 -- -- 11:55:03 02/24/22


Filled Buy 8000 X Limit 23.40 -- -- 11:55:04 02/24/22


Filled Buy 474 X Limit 23.40 -- -- 11:55:04 02/24/22


Filled Buy 77 X Limit 23.40 -- -- 11:55:04 02/24/22

[tootalljones]

[Saving Grace]

Bull Shit, I seriously doubt there's any truth in that.

[tootalljones]

i think we are in for a heckuva bear market rally now.

[tootalljones]

sold my gold stock yesterday morning, AEM, so thrilled I did, bought over 4 million in X to end the day level, this a.m. on the open i added another 450 grand.........glad I did.

[Saving Grace]

Did Stelco and it's CEO Kestenbaum with publisher Seeking Alpha, retract their slimy BS article yet?

It seems to me that being a subsidiary of U.S Steel X, an entire investigation should occur with the whole bunch. If Muddy Waters is going to go down, why not take all the crooks down.

[Saving Grace]

2022 Steel Outlook: Growing Demand & Higher Prices

Steel is always a hot commodity in the global market, but the demand for steel has increased by record amounts over the past two years, and shortages are causing market issues. Many buyers have expressed their concern about having enough steel for production needs in 2022.

The current shortages are due to supply chain issues that have impacted steel inventory, increasing demand. As a result of the spread of COVID-19 over the past two years, mill outages and transportation blockages have also led to a steel shortage.

Growth Projections
The World Steel Association (WSA) reports a projected 2.2 percent growth in the demand for steel in 2022, so demand will continue to increase. In 2021, the growth in demand increased by 4.5 percent, up from just 0.1 percent in 2020.

Automobile and appliance manufacturers are the driving force behind the increased demand for steel, and a shortage of some components is still hurting the recovery.

There have been clear signs of deceleration in the steel-heavy sector’s activity in China, leading to a steel demand contraction of 13.3 percent in July and 18.3 percent in August.

This quick deceleration is partially due to minor factors like small infection outbreaks and adverse weather conditions. However, there are other significant influences, like the slowing down of the real estate sector and the Chinese government’s cap on steel production.

Unrelenting Demand
The backlogged demand for steel has also led to strong manufacturing activity, which has helped the steel market. Developed countries worldwide have outperformed the WSA’s expectations due to the high number of vaccinated individuals and government support.

However, while the manufacturing side has been doing well, supply chain shortages are still disrupting the global steel market and are preventing a strong recovery in 2022. Due to the backlogged steel orders, the demand will remain high through the next year.

Because of the demand for the limited inventory available, steel prices will continue to go up in 2022. The U.S. steel industry is currently valued at $180 billion and began to boom last year thanks to the disruptions caused by COVID-19.

The mill shutdowns caused shortages, but they also gave steelmakers time to bring new plants into service and negotiate higher prices for returning customers.

Increased business and consumer spending habits have driven up the demand for steel-bearing products, which are needed for everything from recreational vehicles to food cans. Buyers are willing to pay more for these products and will continue to pay increased prices throughout 2022.

As government support continues in developed countries and vaccination rates increase, the steel market will continue to recover, but demand will remain high throughout the next year, and even as strong production continues, it will take time to bounce back from all of the backlogged orders.


I have forwarded articles like this to the SEC for conducting an investigation into the activities of Stelco and it's CEO Kestenbaum.

Quote:
Kestenbaum was the first steel CEO to publicly sound the alarm two weeks ago when he warned investors that his company’s steel shipments are taking a hit as the rapid spread of omicron accelerates absenteeism internally and even more among customers’ work crews.


The fact is Kestenbaum was the ONLY CEO to comment and publish such nonsense resulting in a drop in market value across the board.

The Canadian producer fell 6.3% in Toronto, while Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp., Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Steel Dynamics Inc. erased gains for the day. An index of 14 steel companies dropped 3.5% and is on pace for the biggest weekly decline since June.

I believe Stelco and it's CEO Kestenbaum with publisher Seeking Alpha, should be held accountable for Kestenbaum's purposeful comments to manipulate the market and be held responsible for the difference in share price for each company affected. (All Steel Companies) Is it a coincidence that just after Kestenbaum's falsified article, published by "Seeking Alpha" was just days before US Steel announced a share buy back of 500 million USD? The article above from Federal Steel Supply was published just 2 months ago where Kestenbaum, Stelco and Seeking Alpha, absolutely knew better than to manipulate the market so Parent company US Steel could buy back shares for less. This was a sneaky move by US Steel Et Al and I aim to make sure they pay for their mistake.

Kestenbaum was the first steel CEO to publicly sound the alarm two weeks ago when he warned investors that his company’s steel shipments are taking a hit as the rapid spread of omicron accelerates absenteeism internally and even more among customers’ work crews.

Shares of Stelco fell alongside the major U.S. steelmakers following Kestenbaum’s comments. The Canadian producer fell 6.3% in Toronto, while Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp., Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Steel Dynamics Inc. erased gains for the day. An index of 14 steel companies dropped 3.5% and is on pace for the biggest weekly decline since June.

https://www.fedsteel.com/our-blog/2022-steel-outlook-growing-demand-higher-prices/

Quote:
Kestenbaum is a liar and should be held accountable with publisher Seeking Alpha for the stunt they pulled off to drop the steel market so U.S. Steel could buy back $500,000,000 in shares.

[Saving Grace]

FBI+Raids and Subpoenas Have Been Occurring on Wall-Street. What’s Up?

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 17, 2022 ~

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal dropped the bombshell that the Justice Department has been conducting raids on prominent short-sellers, including Muddy Waters’ Carson Block and Andrew Left of Citron Research. The Journal reported that the Justice Department “has seized hardware, trading records and private communications….”

Reuters reported yesterday that the Justice Department’s probe is “part of a wide-ranging investigation into short-sellers and hedge funds focused on suspected coordinated manipulative trading, according to two people familiar with the matter.” Reuters also reported that “dozens” of subpoenas have been issued to various firms since early last year.

Of particular interest to Wall Street On Parade was a report on December 10 by Reuters which indicated that trading activity in the shares of GSX Techedu was in the cross hairs of the Justice Department because both Muddy Waters and Citron Research had circulated negative research on the company.

If GSX Techedu, a Chinese online tutoring firm, is being probed, we can assure you that more than short-sellers need to be under investigation by the Justice Department. (The company has changed its name to Gaotu Techedu.)

GSX Techedu was one of the stocks that had been purchased in huge quantities by Archegos Capital Management before Archegos blew itself up in March of last year. Archegos was using tricked-up derivative contracts provided by major Wall Street firms that allowed it to hide its ownership interests in various stocks and obtain massive amounts of margin loans provided by the same Wall Street firms. (See our report: Archegos: Wall Street Was Effectively Giving 85 Percent Margin Loans on Concentrated Stock Positions – Thwarting the Fed’s Reg T and Its Own Margin Rules.)

When we checked 13F filings with the SEC that were dated prior to the Archegos blowup to find out who might have been fronting for Archegos’ position in GSX Techedu, we found the following: Goldman Sachs held over 20 million shares of GSX Techedu with a put option on just 3.45 million shares; Morgan Stanley held over 14 million shares; UBS held more than 11 million shares; Bank of America held more than 5.8 million shares; Citigroup, over 4.8 million shares; and JPMorgan Chase, over 4 million shares.

The market value for all six megabanks’ holdings in GSX Techedu was more than $3 billion as of December 31, 2020.

What was completely insane about these sophisticated Wall Street banks holding such a sizeable position in GSX Techedu as of December 31, 2020 was that on April 14, 2020 Citron Research had published a 34-page report calling the company “The Most Blatant Chinese Stock Fraud since 2011.” On May 18, 2020 Muddy Waters had released a 25-page detailed report on GSX Techedu which sized up the company as follows:

“We are short GSX because we conclude that it is a near-total fraud.

“We conclude that at least ~70% of its users are fake, and we think it’s quite likely that at least ~80% of its users are fake.”

Both reports offered compelling evidence for their charges of fraud.

But after the detailed reports of a fraudulent operation were published, instead of the share price collapsing, it actually soared from about $30 a share to over $100. That doesn’t sound like manipulation by short-sellers who should be under investigation.

The share price of GSX Techedu did crash when Archegos blew up in late March 2021, because Wall Street firms had to liquidate all of the stock positions they had leveraged up on behalf of Archegos. Under its new name, Gaotu Techedu, the company’s share price closed at $2.47 yesterday. It has traded in a range of $1.55 to $2.50 since December.

The draft registration statement filed with the SEC for the listing of GSX Techedu’s American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange lists the following Wall Street firms as the underwriters: Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs (Asia), Bank of America Securities and Deutsche Bank Securities.

This raises the question, if GSX Techedu was, indeed, a fraud at the time Citron Research and Muddy Waters published their reports, why didn’t these megabanks on Wall Street catch it when they did their due diligence as underwriters? If the company was not a fraud, why have Muddy Waters and Citron Research not been forced to retract their published reports, which remain online for anybody to read?

We will be watching this investigation closely.


https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/02/fbi-raids-and-subpoenas-have-been-occurring-on-wall-street-whats-up/

[Saving Grace]

Shorter/Hedge-Fund, Muddy Waters, Computers, software/Messages seized and under investigation for fraud, under the Rico Act meaning tyranny and max sentence of death by hanging.

Muddy Waters founder Carson Block was reportedly served with a search warrant as Justice Department investigates illegal trading tactics by short-sellers

Quote:
Short-seller Carson Block of Muddy Waters was reportedly served a search warrant in October, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The warrant is related to the Department of Justice's investigation into illegal trading activity.

The Justice Department has seized hardware, trading records, and private messages, according to the report.

Short-seller Carson Block of Muddy Waters was served a search warrant in October by the FBI, according to a report from the The Wall Street Journal.

The warrant is related to an ongoing probe by the Department of Justice related to illegal trading activity by short sellers. Specifically, the Justice Department is looking into whether short-sellers conspired together to drive down stock prices by sharing critical research reports ahead of time, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Insider reached out to Block for comment but did not yet receive a response in time for publication of this article.

The Justice Department has seized hardware, trading records, and private messages and is focused on the act of "spoofing" and "scalping," two tactics that could lead to big gains for traders. Spoofing is an illegal practice banned in 2010 in which a trader floods the market with fake orders in an effort to influence a stock price, while scalping is related to activist short-sellers selling out of their position for profits without disclosing it.

Short-sellers are an unloved group of market participants that get a lot of blowback from the companies they target and the investors of those companies. Some see their tactics as predatory, as they have the power to move a stock price that they might have a position in on the release of a critical report. Critics say these reports use misleading information that doesn't give a complete picture of the situation at hand.

But short-sellers play an important role in the market as some have a proven track record of identifying and exposing fraudulent companies that sometimes go bankrupt. Such fraudulent companies that were the target of short-seller research included Enron, Sino-Forest, and Wirecard AG, among others.

Block himself published research on Sino-Forest that exposed the company and was briefly short shares of Wirecard, which went bankrupt and wiped out $14 billion in market value in 2020 due to fraud.

Andrew Left of Citron Research is another prominent former short-seller that has also been roped into the investigation as federal agents took computers belonging to him, according to Bloomberg News. Left gave up on short-selling last year after the meme-stock mania led to a number of high-profile short squeezes.

All-in, the investigation by the Justice Department has so far ensnared nearly 30 investment and research firms that engage in short-selling. No one has been accused of wrongdoing and the investigation can lead to no charges being brought.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/carson-block-served-search-warrant-short-seller-investigation-illegal-trading-2022-2

[tootalljones]

I cannot see how X does not run to almost 30 and new highs between now and they report Q1 earnings....They will earn a billion bucks or so this quarter, probably more, they are buying back also 750 million in stock. The PE now is 1.6. They will be net debt positive very soon. They have a 6 billion market cap. They have almost 40 percent of their income this year fixed at far higher prices. Demand is roaring, inflation is roaring, and both are here to stay.

I can honestly see them having a share price in 2 years of 70 bucks and be spinning out major dividends. Remember they are dramatically reducing shares outstanding right now. If they are earning net 1.5 billion in 2 years, that is over 4 bucks in dividends per share. This stock is gonna go crazy.

[tootalljones]

x is juggernaut going forward from here

[tootalljones]

sold all my X yesterday, mid day, as she started to pullback, all 140K shares, and bought GDX this a.m......loaded the boat beyond marginability.....ha....gonna buy annother 10K tomorrow in another account if she pulls back a tad.

[tootalljones]

Another day in paradise. So Boring. -Question: does anybody seriously believe that X does not deserve at least a 5 PE at the current time? Making billions, a pristine balance sheet, just broke ground a day ago on its newest state of the art mini mill?.....A PE of 5 puts this stock around 65 bucks, give or take....The 40 million shorts must get out, providing us with a nice appetizer.

[tootalljones]

X has a PE of 1.56. For it to double, a no brainer. Question: how are the 40 million shorts gonna not lose 100% on their investment? Answer: they must cover.

Short squeezes are rare. I have seen many, never been in one. VW had a squeeze where the stock went from 14 to 100 in about 6 months....

What if X were to become a MEME stock....jumping 15 to 35 bucks per day or more?

Holy Moly!

[tootalljones]

Hold on tight fellas, we are into a monster stock...I am saying a double pretty much by year end...40 to 45 bucks is my prediction, and a year end PE of 1.75....currently it is around 1.6 or so (or was). And another double in 2023.....Remember we are buying 800 million worth of stock and have been without any doubt the last several weeks, providing support, removing huge chunks of shares forever.

[tootalljones]

The notion of a major American company with a PE of 1.55, with what is now a TRANSFORMED BALANCE SHEET, which is also making 3.5 to 4.5 BILLION IN AFTER TAX PROFITS...IS HILARIOUS...The PE will be adjusted far higher....The business is getting better, not worse.

[tootalljones]

Rules to live by: People would rather be right than to know the truth about something. And in the stock market, people would rather lose their own money, than know the truth about something. Call it being bullheaded, stupid, whatever. I can tell others who are getting financially destroyed, to change their view of something, and the retail investor generally will sneer back and keep on losing with their loser ideas -- human nature being what it is.

X is gonna make so much money. I can see how this must play out.
We are just starting the end game this year, for the shorts, not that they matter all that much to a stock's future. They are like kindling, when they are wrong. Each quarter that goes by will show they are in so much trouble, as the billions and billions of cash monies roll in the door for X......

[tootalljones]

Today is Day 1, GROUND ZERO, of the X shorts commencing to be annihilated. This will be a long process as the share price climbs, but today the Levee Broke.

[tootalljones]

X should have a PE of 6, in stead of 1.6, the most ridiculous thing in the S and P....= share price of $80. Give it time, let the money come into the stock over time. It will.

[tootalljones]

Shareholders of x will be thrilled next earnings report when they learn how much the company bought at this ridiculous low price. Grab it all or somebody is gonna come in and take the company private.

[tootalljones]

as of several weeks ago, I believe X had 150 million or so left from the prior quarter's stock buyback authorization, plus they alotted another 650 MILLION more in funds (I think they should have alotted 1 billion, but what do I know)...So that is 800 billion dollars worth of stock they are now buying back, at this ridiculous price. If I were the CEO I would command my stock boys to grab 500 million dollars worth at 22 bucks a share....that is removing and retiring almost 23 million shares. Plus the company still has 300 million bucks to take out more if it goes lower. ..I would not mess around at this dirt cheap price and get uber greedy. Remember the company is still sitting on billions in cash, and will make another billion in this quarter in earnings.

I know I did my part today, getting another 16 or 17,000 shares when it went under 22 bucks
I am positive the company is grabbing hundreds of millions of dollars worth at this ridiculous price.

[tootalljones]

grabbed another 17K shares just below 22 on this morning's dip. It is so hard to time these things. Here's to swimming with bowl-legged women.

[livendi]

U smart. God bless and good luck

[tootalljones]

X vs. Aapl
I expect X to make this year as follows:
Q1: $4
Q2: $3
Q3: $3
Q4: $3

Total $13 per share, @ year end, (at this rate) PE of 1.70 to 1.75 Maximum and in part on account of ongoing tremendously cheap share buybacks. And I am not a big fan of share buybacks but it is absurd not to with X. Either buy back the debt, which is not due until 2029 at the earliest, or the shares, or dividends, and buying the shares at a 1.60 PE is a no brainer. It is financial negligence not to at the current share price.

X will be net debt positive around the end of Q1. X is currently sitting on around $3B in cash, and has a market cap of 5.96 billion.

vs.
they forecast Aapl to earn $6.15 this year, a PE of 28.05, a market cap of 2.8 trillion, (and spin off essentially no dividends)

The Comparison is ludicrous. I could pick any other tech stock, but Aapl is considered more secure and stable than the other giants like Tsla, which has a PE of 200, google, Wastebook, etc...In other words, it is the blue chip of them all, LOL....with absurd financials. People gonna leave these over time, a slow moving steady move from them, into the cash creating commmodity stocks.

X will be spinning off 10 bucks in dividends in a couple years from now....Per share. That plan is there, waiting for liftoff. O yea, one more thing, they have 3.9B in debt, but 80% of it is due in 2029 or beyond....They can take a chunk out of it, at any time they choose, and will be net debt positive in 2 months from now.

analysts Estimated for 2022:
AAPL:
EPS (FWD)
6.15
PE (FWD)
28.05
Div Rate (FWD)
$0.88
Yield (FWD)
0.51%
Short Interest
0.56%
Market Cap
$2.82T