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might be the best time to drill in the north sea---AKA NoRTH OF SCOTISH ISLANDS---------..........as the weather is calmer
"Oil Prices Jump As Libya’s Largest Oilfield Goes Offline"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Libyas-Largest-Oilfield-Goes-Offline.html
Tuesday, July 11, 2023
Oil prices have marginally moved beyond the $72-77 per barrel range for Brent and $67-72 per barrel for WTI, and there is a growing sense that the market is starting to feel Saudi Arabia’s production cuts and Russia’s export curbs. Hedge fund net positioning in the ICE Brent contract went up by the equivalent of 25 MMbbls last week, the largest week-on-week build in two months, pointing at a potential short-term pricing upside.
UAE Refuses to Commit to Voluntary Cuts. As Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million b/d production cut into August and is widely expected to do the same into September, the United Arab Emirates announced it would not join its OPEC peer and that Riyadh’s cuts are enough to balance markets.
Mexican Oil Disaster Hard to Contain. Mexico’s national oil company Pemex estimates that the fire that broke out at its Nohoch-A platform and spread to the strategic Cantarell compression complex - causing the death of three people in the process - has led to the loss of 700,000 barrels of crude oil production so far.
US-EU Minerals Pact Coming By End-2023. According to senior US officials, a deal between the United States and the European Union to allow critical minerals mined or processed in Europe, including lithium and graphite, to be compatible with US tax breaks will be signed by end-2023.
Norway Lauds Largest Condensate Find in Years. Norwegian upstream firm DNO (OSL:DNO) announced a major gas and condensate discovery at its Carmen prospect in the Norwegian Continental shelf, the largest condensate find in decades with 120-230 mmboe of reserves.
Iran Accuses US of Shielding Fuel Smugglers. Less than a week has passed since Iran tried to intercept a US-bound tanker chartered by Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Tehran now accused the US Navy of defending fuel smuggling in the Gulf as another tanker was seized despite US aircraft interference.
HRW Attacks Total’s Uganda Project. Human Rights Watch claimed that the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline led by TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) will devastate thousands of lives of people that have received inadequate compensation for their land, adding to the overall pressure on Uganda’s upstream projects.
Kuwait to Speed Up Development of Disputed Field. As Kuwait and Saudi Arabia move closer to jointly developing the Durra gas field in the Gulf, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Saad al Barrak called on Iranian authorities to demarcate their maritime borders before claiming joint ownership of the asset.
Fukushima Water Release Triggers IAEA. Japan’s plan to release treated radioactive water from its Fukushima nuclear plant has kept the IAEA on its toes as South Korea criticized the UN body’s findings and China threatened legal action if the plans moved ahead as currently planned.
Venezuela’s Opposition Wants to Redraw Export Map. Venezuela’s opposition is now suggesting that the Latin American country should redirect 200,000 b/d of its exports to a selected trustee to pay a group of creditors, as Caracas fights tooth and nail to retain Citgo as its key asset.
Satisfying No One, IMO Revised Its Emissions Strategy. As the International Maritime Organization revised its greenhouse gas emissions strategy and adopted a 2050 net zero target after 5 years of protracted negotiations, with developing nations voicing their dissatisfaction over potential fines if countries fail to deliver.
South Sudan Postpones Oil Expansion. As South Sudan’s oil industry struggles to bounce back from the ongoing war in Sudan, the country has postponed its long-term production growth of 230,000 b/d by at least two years to 2026, yet oil field flooding and lack of investment remain structural shortfalls.
Falling Rhine Levels Scare Central Europe. Falling water levels on the Rhine River in Germany are increasing freight costs across Germany and increasing the likelihood of supply shortages as levels at the Kaub chokepoint stand at 105 cm currently and are expected to fall below 1 m by the end of this week, allowing for only half-loaded cargoes.
Iron Ore Lives Through Worst Day of 2023. Depressed by weak Chinese domestic demand and steel output curbs, the two key Asian iron ore futures in Dalian and Singapore recorded their worst day in 2023 so far on Monday, falling by almost 4% on the day to $109 per metric tonne.
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
Morgan Stanley Reiterates Equal-Weight on Transocean, Maintains $8 Price Target
BENZINGA
10:12 AM ET Jul-06-2023
Morgan Stanley analyst Connor Lynagh reiterates Transocean (NYSE:RIG) with a Equal-Weight and maintains $8 price target.
So there are 2 upgrades 1 to $8 and 1 to $10. Another at CITI for $9.5
"Why Transocean (RIG) Stock Is Trading Higher Today
BENZINGA
8:54 AM ET 07/05/2023
Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG) shares are trading higher Wednesday following positive analyst coverage from Citigroup. The company also announced that $172 million in options have been exercised.
What Happened: Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber upgraded Transocean from a Neutral rating to a Buy rating and raised the price target from $6.50 to $9.50.
The upgrade comes after the stock rallied more than 50% year-to-date and more than 12% over the past week.
Last week, Transocean announced that it received a $184 million award for harsh environment semisubmersible. The new award is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2025.
On Wednesday, Transocean also announced that six one-well options have been exercised for the harsh environment submersible, which is estimated to contribute approximately $172 million in backlog. The work is expected to commence as a direct continuation of the current term and now extends through February 2026.
Transocean is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells."
Citigroup Upgrades Transocean to Buy From Neutral, Raises Price Target to $9.50 From $6.50
7:20 AM ET, 07/05/2023 - MT Newswires
07:20 AM EDT, 07/05/2023 (MT Newswires) -- Transocean (RIG) has an average rating of outperform and price targets ranging from $5 to $12, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.
"OMV preparing to kick off drilling ops with Transocean rig"
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/omv-preparing-to-kick-off-drilling-ops-with-transocean-rig/
Transocean Ltd. Announces $184 Million Award for Harsh Environment Semisubmersible
June 28 2023 - 05:22PM
Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (“Transocean”) today announced a 16-well binding award for the Transocean Equinox in Australia for a consortium of four operators. The estimated 380-day campaign contributes approximately $184 million in backlog, excluding full compensation for mobilization and demobilization. The engagement also includes options that, if fully exercised, could keep the Transocean Equinox working in Australia into 2028.
This new award is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2025 in direct continuation of the rig’s previously announced five-well, 300-day commitment in Australia with a major operator, currently expected to start in the first quarter of 2024.
"Norway Approves $18.5 Billion Investment In Oil And Gas Projects"
"The 19 projects approved today include new developments, additional development of producing oil and gas fields, and investments to increase resource recovery in producing fields, the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy said. The projects are being led by Aker BP, Equinor, Wintershall Dea, and OMV"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Approves-185-Billion-Investment-In-Oil-And-Gas-Projects.html
"But China is not the only country willing to drill to ridiculous depths in the pursuit of energy security.
Deepwater oil and gas production is set to increase by 60% by 2030, to contribute 8% of overall upstream production, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie, as cited by Rig Zone.
Ultra-deepwater production is set to continue growing at breakneck speed to account for half of all deepwater production by 2030."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Bets-On-Ultra-Deepwater-Oil-And-Gas.html
RIg rates strong $420 K a day and contracts extended
"Bulls, like ourselves, find comfort in the fact that end-use demand across the commodity complex has not shown recessionary signs and investment in supply remains elusive,” Goldman’s analysts said in the note at the end of May, as carried by Bloomberg."
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Slashes-Year-End-Oil-Price-Forecast-To-86.html
"Analysts Reiterate Calls For $100 Oil As Saudi Arabia Cuts Production"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Analysts-Reiterate-Calls-For-100-Oil-As-Saudi-Arabia-Cuts-Production.html
"Saudis to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day in July as OPEC+ extends output deal"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudis-to-cut-oil-production-by-1-million-barrels-a-day-in-july-as-opec-extends-output-deal-8b7eac93?mod=home-page
I wonder what the July WTI futures contract will be tomorrow.
"Oil Prices Climb As U.S. Rig Count Sees Another Double-Digit Decline"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Climb-As-US-Rig-Count-Sees-Another-Double-Digit-Decline.html
"Oil short sellers have been issued a warning: watch out for more “ouching”. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, issued the threat earlier this week in his latest lashing out at oil’s short sellers.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister is arguably holding the reins of OPEC, which could decide to cut crude oil production again, sending prices soaring in what would surely be a painful outcome to many speculators and short sellers out there.
“I keep advising them (referencing oil speculators) that they will be ouching, they did ouch in April, I don’t have to show my cards. I am not a poker player…but I would just tell them watch out,” the Prince warned.
Oil’s short positions are considerable, at 184 million barrels as of May 16. This is an increase of 140% from the number of short positions in play just a month earlier."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-OPEC-Surprise-The-Market-With-Another-Output-Cut.html
"WTI Screams Back Up Past $70 Despite Crude Inventory Builds"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/WTI-Screams-Back-Up-Past-70-Despite-Crude-Inventory-Builds.html
Price projections? based on resistance levels
YES, and the Canadian PM is bullish on NAT GAS which is at a new year LOW
CALL the BFI
Chart has broken out for a nice swing here.
Hawk
"Oil Short-Sellers Might Be In For Another Big Squeeze"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Short-Sellers-Might-Be-In-For-Another-Big-Squeeze.html
"Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sees Brent Oil Price Above $80 At Year-End"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Deputy-Prime-Minister-Sees-Brent-Oil-Price-Above-80-At-Year-End.html
"Signs Of Strong U.S. Fuel Demand Should Boost Oil Prices"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Signs-Of-Strong-US-Fuel-Demand-Should-Boost-Oil-Prices.html
"China’s Refinery Throughput Jumped 19% In April"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Refinery-Throughput-Jumped-19-In-April.html
"Huge Volumes Of Crude Oil Are Headed To China"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Huge-Volumes-Of-Crude-Oil-Are-Headed-To-China.html
"3 Reasons Why Oil & Gas Is Goldman Sachs’ Favorite Sector"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/3-Reasons-Why-Oil-Gas-Is-Goldman-Sachs-Favorite-Sector.html
This form 4 is a little tough to read, but if you go to the SEC site:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1737912/000141588923006859/xslF345X04/form4-04252023_110406.xml
It looks like Perestroika (Cyprus) Ltd traded some debt for shares and upped their total share count from 48 million to 82.6 million.
I could be wrong that's what it looks like to me
Transocean Ltd. Receives ‘Hold’ Rating from Multiple Coverage Firms, but Institutional Investors Remain Committed
Roberto Liccardo by Roberto Liccardo April 24, 2023
https://beststocks.com/transocean-ltd-receives-hold-rating-from-multip/
On April 24, 2023, Bloomberg Ratings reported that Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) had received a “Hold” rating from fourteen coverage firms. The company provides offshore drilling services for oil and gas wells and has several fleets of rigs for different environments. It was founded in 1953 and is located in Switzerland.
Even with various ratings, the stock remains stable as institutional investors and hedge funds have made changes to their positions in RIG. Citizens Business Bank purchased a new stake in the company worth about $25,000 during the third quarter while Kestra Advisory Services LLC also bought its own stake during the same period.
US Bancorp DE increased its shares by 336.4% in the same quarter to a total worth of $25,000 after purchasing an additional 7,922 shares of stocks. On the other hand, Transparent Wealth Partners LLC also acquired a new position at around the same time as Penn Capital Management Company LLC did likewise.
Overall, more than half of RIG’s stocks belong to institutional investors and hedge funds who have long-term commitments to it. Despite only having an average one-year price target among analysts that have updated their coverage on the stock set at $6.98 over the past year, this stability indicates some confidence within these financial groups.
It is worth noting that Transocean plays an important role in offshore drilling industry. With its various fleets catering to diverse environments for oil and gas drilling services, it has become one of Switzerland’s most successful businesses since inception in 1953.
In summing up this analysis on Transocean Ltd., even though there are varying analyst ratings for its stock performance; there appear to be strong positive signs given by institutional investors and hedge funds holding stakes at various periods over time.
Transocean Ltd., the Swiss-based offshore drilling contractor, has been a subject of scrutiny among investors in recent weeks. The company, which provides contract drilling services for oil and gas wells, has seen its stock price fluctuate as key events unfold.
Analysts from various research firms have issued reports on Transocean’s stocks in the past few weeks. Susquehanna increased its price target from $6.00 to $6.50, while Benchmark raised its target price from $7.50 to $12.00 with a “buy” rating for the company. Citigroup also raised its price target from $5.50 to $6.50 but gave a “neutral” rating, leaving some investors unsure of their position on the stock.
Barclays decreased its price objective, while Compass Point upgraded Transocean from “neutral” to “buy,” setting a price target of $7.50 on the stock.
In related news, Chief Accounting Officer David A. Tonnel sold 12,000 shares of the company’s stock at an average price of $6.53 per share in a transaction that took place on April 17th.
Meanwhile, Director Chad C. Deaton purchased 30,000 shares at an average cost of $7.40 per share in a transaction that occurred on March 2nd.
Corporate insiders own 13% of Transocean’s outstanding shares, indicating confidence in the company despite recent market volatility.
Transocean posted earnings data last February 21st showing ($0.49) loss per share for Q4-2022 – missing analysts’ consensus estimate by ($0.30). Despite this setback, sell-side analysts predict that the firm will recover with -0.37 earnings per share for this fiscal year.
Transocean stock opened at $6.06 on April 24th, with a current market cap of $4.44 billion and a P/E ratio of -6.89. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $6.62 and a 200-day moving average price of $5.32.
Altogether, these key events may contribute to the unpredictability in Transocean’s stock price performance in the coming weeks. As always, investors are advised to closely monitor company developments and review their investment strategies accordingly.
The reason collusion fails:
"Cheap Oil Helps Russia Snag Snare Of India's Market From OPEC"
CORRECTION: "The aggregate incremental backlog associated with these fixtures is approximately $546 million. As of April 18, 2023, the company's total backlog is approximately $8.6 billion."
Still looks like a 12-15 dollar stock to me.
Hope for a top and bottom beat on first quarter results
"This quarter’s report includes the following updates:
• Transocean Enabler – Awarded a 19-well contract in Norway at a current rate of $377,000 per day,
as adjusted for foreign currency exchange plus eight option wells.
• Transocean Encourage – Awarded a nine-well contract in Norway at a rate of $350,000 per day.
• Transocean Endurance – Awarded a multi-well plug and abandonment contract in Australia at a rate
of $380,000 per day plus options.
• Transocean Norge – Customers exercised four one-well options in Norway at $338,000 per day,
$358,000 per day, $358,000 per day, and $408,000 per day, respectively, as adjusted for foreign
currency exchange.
The aggregate incremental backlog associated with these fixtures is approximately $645 million. As of April 18, 2023, the company’s total backlog is approximately $8.6 billion."
Not as nice as the $12 target upgrade ... but analysts are waking up
Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Transocean to $8 From $4, Maintains Equalweight Rating
11:08 AM EDT, 04/18/2023 (MT Newswires) -- Transocean (RIG) has an average outperform rating and price target range of $5 to $12, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.
(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)
True story. Wear a sweater and set the thermostat....
" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
I beat the lines. I pumped gas and went to work at 4:00 A.M...
Long lines, no gas: 1979's odd-even gas rationing
" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
This is like watching a rerun of Dallas....
" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
"Oil Prices Soar As OPEC+ Shocks The Market"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Soar-As-OPEC-Shocks-The-Market.html
On its' way to $10 or $15
"Italy-sized chunk of Gulf of Mexico to be auctioned off by the US for oil drilling"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/italy-sized-chunk-of-gulf-of-mexico-to-be-auctioned-off-by-the-us-for-oil-drilling/ar-AA19cPwo?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=b82e0b77cb0f4d968a418e0d256a6eff&ei=14
increased demand for fewer available offshore platforms
"Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) today announced contract fixtures for two of its harsh environment semisubmersibles. Together, the fixtures represent approximately $113 million in firm contract backlog."
If they can minimize the loss or punch through to a small profit it will be off to the races
Today's final trades....
" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
Right place right time I love it when we are right.. $$
People are hedging in anticipation of a rise in price per barrel
Jim Lebenthal just pumped RIG on CNBC. Good value stock!
As the price of oil and gas drop to new lows the cost of drilling remains the same the bull case for RIG is that offshore drilling is cheaper overall than on shore and the lack of Rigs available puts Transocean at an advantage for larger profit margins. My position in RIG has done very well.
Another base case for the bulls is this
https://www.deepwater.com/news/detail?ID=26831
Only observation not investment advice.. IMHO
"Oil’s Low Prices Draw Rash Of Hedging"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oils-Low-Prices-Draw-Rash-Of-Hedging.html
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BUSINESS SUMMARY:
Transocean Inc. (Transocean) is the world's largest offshore drilling contractor and the leading provider of drilling management
services worldwide.
With a fleet of 139 mobile offshore drilling units plus three ultra-deepwater newbuild drillships under construction, Transocean's
fleet is considered one of the most modern and versatile in the world due to its emphasis on technically demanding segments of
the offshore drilling business.
Transocean owns or operates a contract drilling fleet of 45 High-Specification Floaters (Ultra-Deepwater, Deepwater and Harsh-Environment
semisubmersibles and drillships), 26 Midwater Floaters, 10 High-Specification Jackups, 55 Standard Jackups and other assets utilized in the
support of offshore drilling activities worldwide.
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