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northam43:
Are U thinking SPX weekly as the driver now...now that 3/8 have crossed?
TIA.
SPX Cycle Reports updated including the Weekly Data Sheet.
The SPX 60 min confirmed a Phase 1 at the market close. The average 60 min Phase 1 is 8 trading hours, the current projected low is 1231.2
The SPX Weekly Buy Blocker was activated because the Weekly price closed below the UTL
Have a great weekend!
Right now the SPX 60 min is in an unconfirmed Phase 1, the current projected low is 1231.1, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 8 trading hours.
Murray - For me a Buy Blocker in anytime frame prevents me from buying. But for a short term trader, I would probably recommend shortening the Monthly Buy Blocker period.
Normally if a Monthly buy blocker is activated it means that there is the potential for a large drop downward. I have the Monthly Buy Blocker set for 2 months unless of course the price gets back to the UTL. Like right now the SPX still has not made a Monthly EMA 3/8 bull crossing so for the Monthly things are in limbo right now. My current Monthly Buy Blocker expires at the end of this month, so something should be sorted out by then. Now Buy Blockers hae no effect on the short side.
Of course going short in SPX Cycles is another long discussion.
The Buy Blocker component is the newest addition to the SPX Cycle system. It was established based on lessons learned. If you look at the current SSO long positions I am holding, If I would have had the Buy Blocker component at the time, it would have prevented me from some of those buys.
As for your question on the MACD EMA input. The MACD I use is the (12,26,9) which is a standard MACD, those are each EMA's, the 12 EMA - 26 EMA is the Macd line which is the Blue Line on the chart and the other line is called the signal line.
I noticed that the input to your MACD is an EMA. Is that the EMA 11 High? Is this the same input to your CCI?
How do the buy blockers work, does the weekly buy blocker prevent buys on the daily? It would make sense if the next higher time frame was not trending to prevent a buy on the next lower TF.
Yes, the 60 min opening hour is a short one.
I see by your hourly chart that your bars close on the hour with the first bar closing 1/2 hour after the market opens. I have adjusted my hourly chart to do the same. In addition your 1st bar opens at the prior close eliminating overnight gaps. I cannot get my chart to do that but it does not matter as the indicators are based on the bar close.
Looks like the UTL is finally catching up with the SPX 60 min. Unless we get another push upwards, it looks like a 60 min Phase 1 by the end of the day. I don't like Friday Phase 1's. It give traders the weekend to think about it.
Good news: If the 60 min does go into Phase 1, it could drop to the 1240 level which would be below the 60 min LTL but at the Daily EMA 3 level. So if that happens and then on Monday back into Phase 2, that would keep the Daily in Phase 2, take the Weekly well above the UTL and possibly get a confirmed Monthly Phase 2 next week which could give the upside a major boost.
Also the Weekly Buy Blocker has been released because the Weekly was back above the UTL. Of course if it closes below the UTL, the Buy Blocker will be reactivated.
The current active Buy Blocker is the Monthly.
Torqputty - Your probably right. Look at me I got caught holding two SPXU positions. Oh well, another tax write off next year.
Put/Call at extreme 0.90
I notice that when Put/Call is at or near extremes that a significant 'push' is coming. So, Im looking for an extension of this rally or a new sell off. Im thinking 'extension of rally' based on negative sentiment. Seems to me the bears were caught short and they are in disbelief.
bbgold - I need to let you be the SPX Cycles spokesperson, you say it much better than I.
My interpretation of the Cycles System
Northam has the Cycles setup to help indicate Phase 1 bearish and Phase 2 Bullish modes. He also sets up the Flow charts with Anticipated moves based on the number of typical trading days for each Cycle. The Charts have the trendlines indicating UTL and LTL with MA lines between them. Northam has specific ways of interpreting the Phase 1-2 Cycles in relationship to how the Market closes in relation to those UTL/LTL levels, and then forecasts the number of anticipated trading days for each cycle. The Cycles vary by timeframe, so there can be similar or different cycles for each timeframe 60min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. The 60min cycles will be the fastest, next the Daily, then Weekly/Monthly. So there can be multiple 60 min cycles for each Daily cycle, up to 5 Daily cycles for each Weekly cycle and up to 4 Weekly cycles for each Monthly cycle.
Northams Cycle System is trying to find the Trend in which to follow, either Phase 1 bearish or Phase 2 bullish, and Hold the trade as long as those Phase Cycles remain in effect. So you can use Any of the timeframes to follow but just remember that the Longer term Cycles/Phases are usually more dominant for overall Market movement.
As far as I have been following the Cycles I like to watch the Daily and Weekly for any Close above or below the UTL/LTL for possible reversal areas. This has worked lately because the Markets have been so Volatile.
So the Idea is to take the Phase information from the Cycles using the UTL/LTL and determine in which direction the Markets are trending and make your trades accordingly. The Flow Charts are more Forecasts of how anticipated Phase movements will trade for each timeframe with projected target high/lows based on prior Phase cycles.
As you watch the charts you will begin to see the relationship between the UTL/LTL and the Phase cycles for each timeframe.
Hope this helps, Enjoy the Day!
Murray - The EMA 11,low(LTL) is a significant indicator. 1) Most all Phase 1's go below the LTL 2)When the price rises above the LTL it normally is a signal that it is headed for the EMA 11,high(UTL).
As for the EMA 3/8, even though I have that indicator on the 60 min, Daily, & Weekly charts, I only pay attention to the Monthly EMA 3/8. The Monthly EMA 3/8 establishes the long term trend of the market. If you look at the Major Market Trends Period report, that report is based on Monthly EMA 3/8 crossings
As for how the Monthly has an impact on the 60 min, right now is a prime example. The 60 min is now in the 30th trading hour of it's Phase 2, matter fact the 60 min has broke a new record today in the (H-L Diff), it has now gained over 100 pts during this cycle. The Daily Phase 2 is now in it's 3rd trading day, the Weekly is in the 2nd week of it's Phase 2, and the Monthly is headed for the UTL which is currently at the 1284 level. So the Monthly is giving all the indications at this point that it is likely to confirm a Phase 2, so the 60 min is likely to continue to extend because the 60 min price is way ahead of the EMA 11,high(UTL), the reason that is happening is because the long term timeframes are pushing it upward. Now when the EMA 11,high finally catches up, then you will see a 60 min Phase 1. So right now it looks like the Monthly could push the price to the UTL, also another thing to look for is if the 60 min price drops below the EMA 3, that is normally an indication it is headed for the UTL.
As for the MACD(12,6,9) and CCI(24), those are what I consider as secondary indicators. I am mainly looking to see if the MACD or CCI is above or below the zero lines, when the zero line is crossed it can be a confirmation of the trend. Today I will put up charts of each timeframe and you might want to look at how these secondary indicators interact and can confirm a trend. If the Monthly MACD is above the zero line as long as it is above the zero line you will not see a Big Bear market. The Monthly has remained above the zero line this entire Bear market, however, the Weekly fell below the zero line, so this Bear market has basically so far been technically a big Weekly correction. Looking at the chart today the Daily is attempting a crossing above the MACD zero line, the Weekly continues to trend upward toward the zero line. The CCI(24) on the Weekly is close to making a crossing above the zero line. On the CCI(24) I also look for extreme conditions at the +150 and -200 levels.
As you probably know, I'm not a fan of day trading, and my system is primarily geared to long term traders. However, ST traders I believe could benefit greatly from this system as I believe they would probably stay in their trades longer and most likely be more profitable, but that would depend greatly on how they used the system. My goal is to make an annual return of 25%.
As I have been writting this post I have noticed the 60 min is now dropped below the EMA 3. So we shall see if a Phase 1 is coming in the next couple hours.
Yes, as time goes on you will see how everything flows together and you can anticipate major trend changes. One report I have that I believe is very informative is the SPX Cycle Flow Chart. That flow chart shows what has happened in the past, as well as what the future might look like, don't get me wrong, I'm no future teller, but as most of us has learned the market works in cycles, and cycles are like gears on a bicycle, some gears you don't use, but they all have a purpose, try climbing a hill in 5th gear, it's alot easier in 1st gear, however, 1st gear don't work very well on the downhill. When you get up to speed on level ground 5th gear is great and less work.
Thanks northam43, I guess as time goes on I will grow to understand how the EMA 11 low, EMA 3/8, MACD & CCI are being used on your daily chart.
I can understand how the daily and possibly the weekly would have impact on the hourly, but I fail to see how the monthly has any relevance to the hourly.
Currently I daytrade off of a 3 min globex chart but I also look at the 5 min daily and globex charts that's it.
Murray - No problem, just keep asking until you either get the information you need or I just say I don't have it. I'm always willing to provide whatever I have concerning the SPX Cycle System.
The basic SPX Cycle System relies on two indicators, the EMA 11,high and EMA 11,low, these two indicators are used in each timeframe, the EMA 11,high indicator is the most important, it is used to confirm a Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Here is an old Daily chart with those indicators, they are the two green lines in the top box, the top green line is the EMA 11,high and the bottom green line is the EMA 11,low
There are some basic rules, however, the biggest part of the SPX Cycle system is being aware of what each timeframes status is. You can't just focus on the 60 min by itself, you have to look at the Daily, Weekly, Monthly and the Monthly EMA 3/8 all are components and major players in the SPX Cycle System.
Just like today could be a very significant day, we could get an unconfirmed Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing and if it holds until the end of the month it will be confirmed.
60 min indicators get confirmed at the end of each hour
Daily indicators get confirmed at the end of each trading day
Weekly indicators get confirmed at the end of each trading week
Monthly indicators get confirmed the last trading day of each month
The basic rules for a Phase 1 and 2 confirmation is, for a Phase 1 to be confirmed the price must open below the UTL and remain below the UTL for that entire timeframe as I mentioned above to get a confirmation. The exception to the above is on the Phase 2 confirmation which is the easiest of all, if the price hits or crosses above the UTL a Phase 2 is immediately confirmed.
I believe as time goes on and if you follow the cycle system daily you will conform it to your style of trading.
Perhaps I did not explain myself well enough when I referred to indicators on charts. An example of a "chart" is below. This chart is the VTO strategy with an Ichimoku Cloud as a qualifier. Given the rules for the Ichimoku trading strategy only the most recent VTO strategy would have qualified.
After I see the parameters for your indicators I would also like to see the rules you use to trade them.
TIA,
Murray
No Problem
Yes, it is a Lot of information to take in, but all of it is Good.
I am still working on getting All of the timeframes in line with how I want to trade. If I can just get a little more Patience and wait for the Best scenarios I should be Ok.
Thanks for All the work you put into the Cycles System!
Much appreciated :^)
bbgold - Thanks for assisting Murray.
I like your comment "They get easier to read the more you follow them :^)"
Murray - All of my reports are in the sticky notes at the top of this message board. The ID & Password is provided.
I update the reports Daily after the market closes.
If you want me to provide larger charts than what is on the Daily report I can do that tomorrow during market hours. Just let me know.
Look at Top Post in column #1280 Sticky Note
You will see the little sticky next to it.
You will need to login to see the charts and info.
They get easier to read the more you follow them :^)
northam43, would you please provide me with a link to charts for your monthly, weekly, daily and 60 min. so that I may see the indicators you are currently using.
TIA,
Murray
Weekly at UTL, Monthly at pivot
Wow, could not have come any closer on those two?
I am looking short for tomorrow but most will depend on how the Jobs numbers come in. Wanted to wait until tomorrow for a trade but was anticipating a breakdown at INDU 12000 SPX 1240 going into the eod but the Support there held up. Might have been Safest to wait for the breakdown. Last time SP had the small doji after a big candle we had 2 days of downside, so anticipation is a repeat here.
We will know in the morning, Enjoy the Evening!
SPX Cycle Reports have been updated. I also reposted the Monthly Data Sheet as there were some minor corrections made.
The SPX Weekly Buy Blocker was activated because the Weekly price closed below the UTL.
Have a great evening!
For your information:
I just updated the 12 month & 24 month averages on the SPX Daily Data sheet.
What jumped out at me was the Daily Average Phase 2 trading days:
The overall average is 9.26 trading days, the 12 month average is 6.48 trading days and the 24 month average is 10.43 trading days.
About half of the year we were either going in or in a Bear market. So I would expect that 6.48 12 month average to increase, if we are going into a Bull market.
Rcks - That's great! The 60 min will close today in Phase 2. I'll have to move the start of Phase 1 back another day on the flow chart.
northam here are a couple views both Bullish interprtations of the market currently from Henry on SI.
This first post shows a TA perspective using the Falling Wedge Breakout to give a measured move to 1262.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27790039
This post from sunday shows an E-Wave count where the drop to 1158 completed a Wave 2 correction. Wave 1 ended at the 1292 top.
This puts this current rise as a Wave 3 and if the Wave 3 equals Wave 1 in length it rise to 1370 +/-.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27789467
Incorrect information: "I believe tomorrow is the last day to sell for a tax write off, or was that today? The rule is 30 days after the sell. I might sell my QID."
Actually I can wait and sell my QID at the end of this month and take a tax write off, as long as I don't buy that same stock back within 31 days
Just wanted to correct that wrong info.
The SPX 60 min Phase 2 now in the 26th trading hour continues to extend. The 60 min UTL is at 1238.75, the LTL is at 1232.62, the Daily UTL is at 1224.79
So right now if the 60 min went into Phase 1 and dropped to a low of 1225, which would be 8 points below the 60 min LTL, the Daily would remain in Phase 2
Then the 60 min could go back to Phase 2, and take the SPX to the 1257 level or higher.
Rcks - Looks like today maybe consolidation, it would be nice to get a short 60 min Phase 1 in since the Weekly now is in Phase 2
NASARAVI - Thanks! We have a confirmed Weekly Phase 2, the projected high is 1296.38 by Jan 3rd, 2012, the average Weekly Phase 2 lasts 10.75 weeks, we have not had an average Weekly Phase 2 since March 2011.
More good news: The Monthly EMA 3/8 Bear gap is now only 4.33 points away from a Bull crossing. If an unconfirmed Bull crossing is made, SPX Cycles will go into Bull market mode.
What is Bull market mode? That is when I start buying longs instead of shorts. So if we go into Bull mode, I will start adding long positions during Daily Phase 1's. Yes,it's a long ways until the end of December and the SPX could go in and out of Bull/Bear a few times.
Right now the only Buy Blocker active is the Monthly, which currently doesn't expire until the end of December, so that should keep me out of a bad long trade. If the Weekly closes below the UTL, a new Weekly Buy Blocker will be activated.
northam43:
Nice assessment.
Thanks.
Bullish scenario for now
RCKS chart has the X marks the spot to get over and into another upper trading range. I wanted to get Long for December as last year the Markets rallied pretty much from the beginning of Dec into mid Feb, but have yet to chase the gap ups. I didn't realize last Friday was a half day and got home everything was done, though never thought to check on TNA in Afterhours, later saw A/H it traded 33.50. Anticipating some gap fill that never happened still has me on the sidelines here, but still afraid of the ghost bear. We will have to see if the Ghost Bear has been locked up for good or not
northam not sure what happens tomorrow but this may be the start of nice run (well underway actually we've come almost 90 points off the spx 1158 low) as there is a concerted effort to re-inflate around the world. We'll see of course but your system will confirm or not, what more could you ask for?
I will add markets can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods of time and that may be true of your 60 min cycle remaining in Phase II as the Daily has just started its Phase II.
bbgold - I am favoring the Bullish scenario, if you look at the Monthly data sheet you will see that the Monthly normally has a one month Phase 1 every other cycle. It has been three Monthly cycles since the Monthly has had a one Month Phase 1, the last time it had more than one cycle was back in 1987/88 time frame, there was two cycles between a one month phase 1. Also the Monthly closed above the LTL and around the EMA 8 level. During the Phase 1 month it went below the LTL, so it has met that requirement. Tomorrow, with the new month, it will be interesting to see if the Monthly EMA 3/8 makes a bull crossing. If the Weekly flies through the UTL tomorrow we could see this rally lasting awhile. I wasn't expecting the rally to new highs until the summer, but this could be the start of it.
The bad thing is I will be stuck with two SPXU positions, but I could easily write them off.
I believe tomorrow is the last day to sell for a tax write off, or was that today? The rule is 30 days after the sell. I might sell my QID.
SPX Cycle reports updated, including the Monthly Data Sheet and Major Market Trend Report.
Wow, what a day! Daily confirmed new Phase 2 and Weekly missed the Phase 2 by a hair or 1 point. The Daily Phase 2 has already blown it's projected high target of 1223.30 out of the water. If the Weekly confirms a Phase 2 tomorrow, the projected high will be 1302.37
The SPX Monthly confirmed a Phase 1 today, it's projected low is 1075
So which way do we go? This is how I see it.
The Bullish scenario:
The 60 min is in a very extended Phase 1, the current projected low is 1214, so if the 60 min were to go into a Phase 1 tomorrow, it could drop to the 1214 level, which would be below the Daily UTL, however, unless it opened below 1220 in the morning the Daily will remain in Phase 2 tomorrow, an average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 9 trading hours, so if the 60 min went into Phase 1 at the open, it could be back in Phase 2 by the next morning, with a new Phase 2 which could boost the Daily back above the UTL and the Weekly could then confirm a Phase 2, then a Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing would be made and the Monthly would confirm a new Phase 2 and this could be the making of a major rally.
The Bearish scenario:
The SPX Weekly confirms a new Phase 2 at the open. Then the 60 min drops into Phase 1, the Weekly drops back below the UTL, then the Daily drops below the UTL and then Friday the Daily opens below the UTL, and confirms a Phase 1, then Monday the Daily drops below the LTL, the Weekly opens the week below the UTL in an unconfirmed Phase 1, the 60 min goes into an extended Phase 1, the Weekly that week then drops below the LTL followed by the Monthly dropping below the LTL headed for the 1075 low.
Agree with RCKS the euro problems are not gone but the Chinese are on-board (thats good), It buys more time and should give the economy breathing room to the upside.
Bob I am more bullish then you are here, I think Risk-On trade is back on and will stay on maybe most of Dec. The biggest factor in all this is all the Central Banks are into inflating this worldwide and maybe most important the Chinese are going along. The problems in Euro Zone have not gone a way but for a time life will look rosy....
Last Friday was All Close below LTL?
I forgot to take a look at the close if All the timeframes were Close below LTL. I would not be surprised now to see a move back to the Weekly having a Close above the UTL to trigger a move back down. I keep thinking the Close would have to be at the end of the week or month. Will be watching to see if we get a reversal this week and if the upside move will last until Friday or not. For now will be targeting a close above 1240 as possible reversal point. I am thinking 1250 will be the cap to this move, if it gets there, we shall see. For now no sense in getting in front of the bull, but I still see the ghost of the bear.
Bought 100 SPXU at 14.22
This is to protect my gains.
The SPX Daily has confirmed a Phase 2, the projected high is 1223.30 which has already been met. The average Daily Phase 2 lasts 9.25 trading days. However, with the SPX 60 min in an extended Phase 2, it could be a short cycle. However, the Weekly is very close to confirming a Phase 2, so if the Weekly confirms a Phase 2 today, the 60 min could go in extended mode for a few more hours.
I'm feeling pretty bullish right now. I will hold off adding SPXU, for now.
Nasaravi - The R/S levels are pretty balanced right now. Of course if you look at the charts, the Daily, Weekly & Monthly prices are all between the UTL/LTL. So the question is which way does the market go. With the Weekly in the 2nd week of a Phase 1 and the Monthly most likely to confirm a new Phase 1 today, I believe the market is headed back down to possibly a double bottom at the 1075 level, that is the projected low for the Monthly Phase 1.
Looking at the futures this morning, there is a good possibility that the Daily may get a Phase 2. That would not be good. Why? Because the 60 min is in an extended Phase 2 so if the Daily gets a Phase 2 today, I believe it will be short lived and we could have a cliff dive if the 60 min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly are all in Phase 1 at this stage.
If the Daily gets a Phase 2 today, I will be adding a SPXU position.
Have a great day.
northam43:
What is your assessement base don R?S levels.
TIA.
SPX Cycle Reports have been updated.
The SPX 60 min closed below the UTL, so a 60 min Phase 1 might be confirmed at the end of the opening hour tomorrow. The current 60 min projected low is 1171.5
Have a great evening!
Torqputty - Yes, for that to happen the SPX Daily would have to confirm a Phase 2 and if the SPX got to that level, chances are the Weekly would go into Phase 2, because the Weekly UTL is at 1240
re; SPX 60 min is now in an extended Phase 2,
on my 60 min chart the SPX could extend to 1230-ish
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