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The SPX 60 min is now in an extended Phase 2, the SPX Daily is in an extended Phase 1, the SPX Weekly is in the 2nd Week of a Phase 1 and the SPX Monthly is in an unconfirmed Phase 1
So the ST is questionable
The LT is pointing down
With the SPX Daily well above the EMA 8 level. It sure looks like the Daily is headed for Phase 2. However, in the next hour the SPX 60 min will be either in an extended Phase 2 or in Phase 1. If the 60 min goes into Phase 1 the current projected low is 1171.0, that would be below the Daily LTL. So if the Daily is headed for the UTL(Phase 2), the 60 min should go into an extended Phase 2. The downside is if the 60 min is in an extended Phase 2 when the Daily hits the UTL(Phase 2), the Daily will probably have a short Phase 2 because the 60 min will be wanting to go into Phase 1, plus the Weekly has just started a Phase 1, so there is alot of downward pressure. Now if we can get a short 60 min Phase 1 cycle before the Daily goes into Phase 2, that would give the Daily a boost and then the Daily might have a better chance of an average Phase 2.
The current resistant levels (Updated):
SPX 60 min - None
SPX Daily - UTL at 1213.52
SPX Weekly - EMA 8 at 1210.25, UTL at 1239.82
SPX Monthly - EMA 3 at 1212.99, EMA 8 at 1236.10, UTL at 1288.39
SPX Monthly EMA 3/8: Bear gap of -23.11
Current support levels:
SPX 60 min - EMA 3 at 1196.04, UTL at 1191.62, EMA 8 at 1191.24, LTL at 1184.81
SPX Daily - EMA 8 at 1195.72, LTL at 1191.49, EMA 3 at 1190.7
SPX Weekly - EMA 3 at 1198.92, LTL at 1179.38
SPX Monthly - LTL at 1169.32
The Weekly has gained a level by crossing the EMA 3. Still alot of obstacles in the way of starting a Bull market.
All SPX Cycle Reports have been updated including the Weekly Data Sheet.
The SPX 60 min closed above the UTL, so the 60 min Buy Blocker has been released.
Have a great evening!
SPX 60 min price has dropped below the UTL, the 60 min Buy Blocker has been activated. The 60 min may be going into a new Phase 1, the current projected low is 1165.2, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 8.9 trading hours.
So tomorrow could be giving up the gains we got today.
SPX Cycle Buy Blockers:
The current active Buy Blockers are the Weekly & Monthly.
Buy Blockers are intended to keep me from buying in potential down trends.
Buy Blockers can only be released by two ways: 1. the Buy Blocker expires 2. The price crosses above the respective UTL
If I am trading the 60 min timeframe, why should I worry about the Weekly or Monthly Buy Blocker. Because the Buy Blocker is activated when the price crosses below the respective UTL, when the price goes below the UTL, there is a potential for a Phase 1, which is a down trend. The Buy Blocker period is established at half the average time the price normally drops to the low price. Example: The Weekly Buy Blocker currently lasts up to 3 weeks, the average time it takes to the Weekly low price is 5 weeks, half of that is 2.5 weeks, so I established 3 weeks for the Weekly Buy Blocker period, normally that will be the largest part of the down trend. A Monthly Buy Blocker is active for up to 2 months, because the average Monthly time to the low price is 4.30 months.
The current Weekly Buy Blocker expires Dec 2nd unless the price crosses above the Weekly UTL before then.
The current Monthly Buy Blocker expires Dec 30th unless the price crosses above the Monthly UTL before then.
Would I buy immediately after the Buy Blocker is released or expires? No, there are other factors that must be taken into consideration. Like is the Daily in a Phase 2? I will never buy in a Daily Phase 2. I believe the best time to buy is when the Weekly & Monthly Buy Blockers have expired, thier prices are above the LTL, and the Daily Buy Blocker has just expired. Then each time the Daily Buy Blocker expires I would add a position limiting one position to each Daily cycle, until 100% invested.
The main purpose of this buy was to protect some of the $1800 gains today on the SPX Cycles Portfolio.
Torqputty - I'm not to confident about the upside right now. Today's action maybe a one day rally. I right now am waiting for an entry for SPXU.
Now if the Weekly crosses above the EMA 8 level, I may start to change my mind.
re; SPX Cycles Reports
I think we should see upside changes to the report after todays action
My longterm chart shows one of two signals to go long
re; nice bounce bbgold - eom
The current resistant levels:
SPX 60 min - None
SPX Daily - UTL at 1215.8
SPX Weekly - EMA 3 at 1196.13, EMA 8 at 1209.5, UTL at 1238.94
SPX Monthly - EMA 3 at 1210.36, EMA 8 at 1234.87, UTL at 1288.39
SPX Monthly EMA 3/8: Bear gap of -24.41
Current support levels:
SPX 60 min - EMA 3 at 1186.91, UTL at 1178.71, EMA 8 at 1176.75, LTL at 1169.13
SPX Daily - EMA 8 at 1195.19, LTL at 1191.42, EMA 3 at 1182.67
SPX Weekly - LTL at 1179.38
SPX Monthly - LTL at 1169.32
So as you can see there is alot of resistance at the Monthly & Weekly levels
SPX 60 min confirmed Phase 2, current projected high is 1189.64, that target has been reached. The average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.6 trading hours.
Currently the Weekly & Monthly are back above their respective LTL's. The Daily is just below it's LTL. If the Daily gets above the LTL, that could be pretty bullish, normally after a Phase 1 confirmation and the price drops below the LTL, when it crosses back above the LTL it normally is heading for the UTL.
The Daily UTL is at the 1215 level.
As I was writting this post, the Daily has crossed above the LTL.
As for the Bearish side, if the 60 min drops below the EMA 3 level currently at 1177, each hour that the 60 min is in Phase 2, the EMA 3 price will rise, if the 60 min drops below the EMA 3 and the Weekly drops below the LTL which is at 1179, I would then establish a SPXU position.
SPX Futures are up over 31 points as I post this message.
The SPX Weekly confirmed a Phase 1 at Friday's closing. The projected low is 1157.89, the current low is 1158.66, so the question is, what that the Weekly low, this could be a one Week Phase 1, we will have to see how this rally goes. One thing for sure is if these futures hold up to the open, it will put the Monthly, Weekly & possibly the Daily above the UTL. The 60 min should confirm a Phase 2 at the open, so the 60 min Phase 1 of 41 trading hours will remain the record.
The 60 min Phase 2 projected high is 1188.93, the Daily Phase 2 current projected high is 1223.20, the Weekly is 1302.37 and the Monthly is 1448.33
So lets see what today brings. Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving Weekend.
Thanks for the detailed explaination northam43, that's one of the thing that I like about your system is your focus on multiple time frames. Your realization and understanding of this is outstanding.
Murray - First of all, I thank you for your comments. I totally agree with you on not reinventing the wheel. That is how I developed my system. I learned bits and pieces from several boards and then took what I seen working and integrated it into what you see today.
My advice for trading the 60 min is to also be aware of what Phase the Daily, Weekly & Monthly are in. The current 60 min Phase 1 cycle is a prime example. It has now extended to 41 trading hours which is the current record, so if the 1st hour of trading tomorrow is in Phase 1, a new record will be broken. But what caused the Phase 1 extension? 1st the Daily opened below the UTL on Nov 16th and by the close had put the 60 min in a Phase 1 and the Daily confirmed it's Phase 1, so the Daily started taking the 60 min lower, the Daily also brought the Weekly below the UTL and then the following week the Weekly opened below the UTL and continued downward, continuing to take the 60 min with it and the Weekly closed Friday confirming a new Phase 1, so is this drop over? Look at the Monthly, it has been below the UTL all month, it is now below the LTL and I expect it to confirm a Phase 1 at the end of this month, the projected low for the Monthly is 1075.
Now after the Monthly goes into a Phase 1, and if the Monthly is below the LTL, the 60 min Phase 1's will normally be extended. However, the 60 min & Daily will eventually confirm a Phase 2, those Phase 2's will normally be of short duration, until the Weekly price gets back above the LTL.
If the Weekly & Monthly are below the LTL and the 60 min or Daily confirm a Phase 2, that would be a good time to go short.
My point is, even though you are trading a short term time frame the long term time frames will cause a lot of disruption. When Weekly & Monthly are above UTL it is an uptrend(go long on Phase 2), when they are between the UTL & LTL it is sideways(that's probably the ideal time for trading the 60 min both ways), when they are below the LTL, the trend is down (go short on Phase 2).
Hope this helps.
northam43, I am looking for a swing trading system. Rather than "reinvent the wheel" it makes sense to adopt a system which is already established. Your results on the 60 min. are exceptional, congratulations are in order. Do you have any words of advice for someone considering trading your 60 min. system?
My Speculation is bounce here
Looking at the prior Weekly/Monthly Cycles patterns along with the Euro/SP levels I think we bounce here from 1150. Euro is at prior support levels, though so far not showing any support, and SP is at a prior support level, though also so far not showing any support.
The Cycles would show a Close below the LTL on All charts as long as the Monthly SP closes below 1173. To me that would mean a bounce here from 1150-1170 that could still give an All Close below the LTL for a Dec reversal.
Now whether the Support will Hold and we do indeed get a Bounce into EOM we will just have to see, but that is my speculation here.
Looking at SPXU tapping 18 as resistance, TNA 33/32 as support.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
I intercepted a signal that the top traders are going to take SPY back up to 119 plus. Then its Kabook down from there. So short the market once you get slightly above that level. We trade ONLY on intercepted signals by the specialists who take this market wherever they want.
We sold the market at 1292, and of course were abused on the two chatboards here by all the bulls. Who were drunk with the market, at that point, doing very well. Well the trend is very down now, but not for the next two days.
bbgold - It could happen by the end of this month. The majority of Monthly Phase 1 lows are established by the 2nd month. Only two have lasted longer and those were Big Bears.
Ok, thanks
I see that is for Dec now, was thinking Nov :)
The Monthly projected low is currently 1071.97
1071.97 or 1171.97?
I see the LTL on the Monthly is at 1173? So I was anticipating any Close below the LTL at/near 1173 would be the potential reversal much as we saw with the Monthly Close at/near the UTL. So far today's low on the SPX looks to be 1163. I was also looking at the difference between the SPY and the SPX lately and it seems most of the bounces trigger off of the SPY support levels, where the SPX could be a few points lower. Today SPY lod was 116.71 with SPX lod 116.38, so the primary bounce seemed to be SPY 117.
Last 2 days SPY was trading with 1200 as resistance with SPX testing support 1185. So not really sure which one is more significant as far as support/resistance levels here but it does look like the SPX is?
Bottom chart would show 1070 as a Full monthly reversal, which I anticipate is what you are indicating?
The SPX Monthly is now below the LTL, the Monthly projected low is currently at 1071.97 by end of December. That is when the Monthly buy blocker expires and that is the next projected Buy(Long) Signal.
The Weekly is also projected for a new Phase 2 the 1st week of January.
So right now it is either buy short or hold until the end of the year.
Stop Out on TNA trade below 37
Stopped out on the TNA trade, closing the Call trade at .94 with QQQ breakdown at lod
Virtual trade SPY DEC 124 Call at $1, TNA 37.30
Would be in line with the Monthly chart Open below the LTL.
Have been watching the SPY options and seeing the downtrend but the SPY below the LTL on All the charts has me testing for a virtual trade here. TNA would have triggered around 37.30 in a similar trade. Will see how the Open below the LTL's will equate to a bounce.
Tested trigger would be a Close below the LTL's so let's see how this does.
Ah, just checked the Cycles and see the Monthly LTL is SPX 1173, so just testing it now, with pricing slightly lower TNA 37.25
SPY Call .96
SPX Cycle Reports have been updated.
I have added information to the SPX Flow Chart. In the Date row, if the date is red that was a sell day, if the date is green that was a buy day. The days I bought short I have SPXU above the date all the other red/green dates I bought long with SSO.
I also added a row showing the % return for SPX Cycles for historical purposes.
The SPX Flow chart is basically the SPX Cycle System on a spreadsheet. It gives a forecast, provides high/low cycle data for the Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts, color codes the Phase 1/2 cycle start and end periods, shows the major market trend and current Bull/Bear gap and now provides the color coded Buy/Sell dates for Long & Short trades and last but not least shows the performance of the SPX Cycle System.
So if there is one report I strongly recommend viewing, that would be the SPX Cycle Flow Chart.
The next reports update will be after the market closes on Monday, November 28th.
Again, have a great evening and Thanksgiving Holiday!
Torqputty - Thanks and you have a great Thanksgiving as well. Good luck on getting your deer.
As I told Rcks, it is obvious that we are going back into a Weekly & Monthly Phase 1, I believe the next SPX 60 min Phase 2 will be short lived, so I will be establishing a SPXU position hopefully tomorrow.
Rcks - I agree, right now any attempt for a 60 min Phase 2 has met with strong resistance. The 60 min got within 1 pt today of the UTL, then sold off. Right now with the Daily below the LTL and the Weekly is at the LTL, and the Monthly below the UTL, there is just to much down pressure.
It's pretty obvious right now that the Weekly & Monthly are going into a new Phase 1.
So I believe a 60 min Phase 2 right now will be short lived. I will be establishing a SPXU position hopefully tomorrow.
Have a great ThanksGiving - I'll be out with my bow-arrow the day after. hoping to tag a white tail deer...
SPX 60 min is waay oversold but the slide has eased (SPY & QQQ) So i am hanging onto long positions for the short term.
Longterm; Overall I think there is still downside pressure (SMH still has room to downside) but the daily Stochs are oversold or near oversold - I think were close to a Buy
Now the SPX 60 min is in the 27th trading hour. The last time the 60 min was at this level was at the beginning of the Bear market at the end of July. The following Phase 2 lasted only one trading hour and gained only 24.25 points or 1.91%. So things are looking pretty bearish right now.
Right now any attempt the 60 min makes at a Phase 2 is met with alot of resistance.
The SPX 60 min Phase 1 is now in it's 26th trading hour. In yesterday's post I provided data on the last time the 60 min Phase 1 lasted this long. It was pretty bullish. Wonder what this next 60 min Phase 2 is going to be like. Yes, eventually there will be a Phase 2 or there will be no more stock market.
SPX Daily Phase 1 is in the 5th trading day, a new Daily low has been established today, that is now above the average. The SPX Daily has not had an extended Phase 1 since August, that has been 8 cycles ago, so the law of averages would indicate an extended cycle is due. What would cause a Daily Phase 1 extended cycle? A new Weekly Phase 1, as well as a new Monthly Phase 1. So right now with these long term cycles pointing to new Phase 1's, the downside is the likely direction at this point. Now if we get a reversal here today and the 60 min goes into Phase 2 and boosts the Daily into Phase 2, there might be a slim chance the Weekly could get back into Phase 2, but the odds are very very slim at this point. The Monthly I believe is certain to go into a new Phase 1.
So the current Bear market will obviously continue into December, that will be the 5th Month of this Bear cycle. The average SPX Cycles Bear market lasts 6.91 months, the average low of a Bear Market is established by the 5th month and the average number of lows is 2.73, this Bear market currently has two lows. So if we continue in this Bear through next month and get a new low next month, we will be almost at an average SPX Cycles Bear market.
SPX Cycle reports have been updated. Have a great evening!
"the last time the Phase 1 was over 21 hours was at the beginning of October"
I looked at the Daily cycle during that time frame and the Daily Phase 1 was an average one of 6 trading days, it declined 121 points or 10.13%, the low was 1075. The Daily low was put in on the 5th trading day. The Daily Phase 2 lasted 18 trading days and gained 218 points or 20.27%
During that period the Weekly confirmed a Phase 2.
I'm not trying to sell a Bullish position here, I'm just pointing out what occured the last time the SPX 60 min Phase 1 lasted this long.
Rcks - Thanks, hope you have a great one as well.
The 60 min Phase 1 is now in the 21st hour, the last time the Phase 1 was over 21 hours was at the beginning of October. That Phase 1 lasted 26 trading hours, dropped 101 points or 8.60%, the following Phase 2 lasted 18 trading hours and gained 97 points or 9%, the current Phase 1 has declined 76.45 points or 6.07%.
Right now the Daily UTL is at 1245.81, the Weekly UTL is at 1247.61, so a Daily Phase 2 would more than likely keep the Weekly in Phase 2. That's if we get an average Daily Phase 1.
bbgold - Thanks, you have a great Thanksgiving also.
Have a Fantastic Thanksgiving!
I am back to watching the Cycles to see if the Open at/below the LTL will be the potential reversal for Daily/Weekly, especially when coupled with a big gap down.
Have a Wonderful Week!
This week I will be out of the area on Wednesday and back on Sunday.
So Tuesday will be the last reports updated for this week.
I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving!
Some big developments taking place today.
The SPX 60 min Phase 1 now in the 18th hour has been making new lows this morning. The last time the 60 min Phase 1 had a cycle over 18 hours was at the end of October, that Phase 1 cycle lasted 19 hours and dropped 77 points, the following Phase 2 gained 47.79 points or 3.93%. The current Phase 1 has now dropped 76 points.
The SPX Daily Phase 1 is now in the 4th trading day. Today the Daily put in it's 3rd low of the cycle, that is the average, the cycle low is normally established by the 4th trading day. So today could very well be the Daily cycle low.
The SPX Weekly is now in an unconfirmed Phase 1, the price opened the week below the UTL, currently the price is below the LTL. For a Weekly Phase 1 to be confirmed, the price must remain below the UTL until the market closes on Friday. If the price hits the UTL, the Weekly Phase 2 would continue. The average Weekly Phase 1 lasts 6.22 weeks, the last Weekly Phase 1 lasted 11 weeks. The current projected low for this potential Phase 1 is 1157.89, a Weekly Phase 1 low is normally established by the 5th trading week.
The SPX Monthly is currently in an unconfirmed Phase 1, the current price is just above the LTL. For a Monthly Phase 1 to be confirmed the price must remain below the UTL until the close of the last trading day of the month. We currently have 6 more trading days left in this month, so right now the odds of a Monthly Phase 1 confirmation is high. The average Monthly Phase 1 lasts 6 months, the last Phase 1 lasted 2 months. The projected low for this potential Phase 1 is 1071.97, that would be a new low for this Bear market.
Currently SPX Cycles has Buy Blockers on the Weekly & Monthly active.
Unless the market makes a major reversal, I will be establishing a short position during the next 60 min Phase 2.
Thanksgiving week is Usually bullish
The day After Tday is consistently the most bullish day of the week most every year. Now whether we get some relief rally into this Friday is the big question? I think a lot will also depend on how quiet this week is as far as News?
A Virtual trade for your Options might be a SPY Dec 126 Call at $1 looking for some price movement to fill this gap down today?
WoW - the market does not have a holiday spirit..
SPX Cycle Reports have been updated. The Weekly Data Sheet was updated as well.
Today the SPX 60 min Phase 1 completed 15 trading hours, so the 60 min Phase 1 is getting pretty extended. The Daily Phase 1 completed it's 3rd trading day, the average low is established on the 4th trading day, so we will have to see how Monday goes. A 60 min and Daily Phase 2 on Monday would be great.
Have a great weekend!
SPX 60 min Phase 1 is now in the 12th trading hour. The last 60 min low put in was over 4 trading hours ago at the 8th trading hour. The last time a 60 min low was put in after 12 trading hours was at the end of September, that 60 min Phase 1 lasted 26 trading hours and the last low was put in at the 21st trading hour.
As for the 60 min Phase 1 record, in June of this year the 60 min Phase 1 lasted 41 trading hours and the low of that Phase 1 was put in at the 41st trading hour. So we are a long way from a record 60 min Phase 1.
The good news, when the 60 min Phase 1 is in a Bear market and the Phase 1 lasts more than 10 trading hours, the upside is normally over 6% in a short period of time.
For your information(Update):
SPX 60 min:
%Decline/%Gain/Diff/Month
15.31/11.30/-4.01/Nov
31.12/39.84/8.72/Oct
39.37/36.77/-2.6/Sep
39.43/36.14/-3.29/Aug
15.23/13.01/-2.29/Jul
15.47/15.65/0.18/Jun
14.06/12.44/-1.62/May
11.75/15.75/4.00/Apr
21.92/20.63/-1.29/Mar
3.93/8.26/4.33/Feb
6.50/7.97/1.47/Jan
214.09/217.76/3.67/Total
Torqputty - You won't see a blood bath at this point. This whole Bear market has really been pretty mild. If you look at the long term charts (Weekly & Monthly), right now it's the Weekly that is applying the greatest downward pressure, look at the MACD(12,26,9) the Weekly is below the zero line, the Monthly is still well above the zero line. So until the Monthly gets below the zero line (if it does during this Bear), there will be no major cliff dives.
The good news is the Weekly MACD is trending upward and not to far below the zero line.
Also another sub indicator I use, the CCI(24), the Monthly CCI, is above the zero line and trending upward, the Weekly CCI, has just dropped slightly below the zero line at 0.91 this week, if it closes today at or above that zero line, that could be a very bullish indicator, on the other hand if it closes below the zero line, that could indicate we have more downside coming next week.
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