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Mid Oct type trading imo
Today was a near identical trading pattern to the Max Pain rally day mid Oct when SPX retested 1190 for a double bottom buy at support.
In my opinion we either mirror the recent bowtie or the diamond from mid Oct here and break to the upside. I think that would be in line with Tom DeMark looking for a top near Dec 22nd and Bradley turn date Dec 28th. We should at least get 8 more days of whiplash finishing with a spike high like Oct 27th, but could be a doji followed by a steep selloff rather than a bullish day.
So personally I think today will be the middle day to a diamond pattern similar to mid Oct Max Pain rally day, we shall see.
If you still have the diamond pattern trading chart you might want to post it.
Good Trading!
Examples at bottom show why ETF's like SPXU are short term trades.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69715391
SPX Cycle reports have been updated.
SPX narrowed the bear gap to -1.01
SPX 60 min closed in a new confirmed Phase 2
SPX Daily & Weekly made new highs.
Have a great evening!
northam, pending any negative surprises; I think its safe to say that the remainder of this year will see Upside. I think the bulls will win the current Hourly bull/bear battles and drive the daily Stoch into Overbought territory… that’s my opinion; based mostly on the daily Stoch
Rcks - Yep, it inched a little closer. The Bear gap has narrowed to -1.01, today the Daily Phase 2 put in it's 5th high, that is the average. So now the Daily Phase 2 is starting to get due for a Phase 1, unless the Monthly can extend it.
Looks like we wait until tomorrow. I believe, this has been rumored all week, that the ECB will anounce a Rate Cut tomorrow, along with the start of the summitt should give markets quite a boost ahead of the open.
Lots of late day positioning ahead of tomorrow what a finish to the day.
Notice on the Daily chart how the Bow Tie, as Bob calls it, created by the extension of the previous triangles trend lines is still affecting price.
Rcks - A closing above 1264.75 will put the Monthly EMA 3/8 on the Bull side. Even though it would be an unconfirmed Bull crossing, to me that would be a very Bullish indicator.
Since we just confirmed a new 60 min Phase 2, maybe that will give the extra boost.
WOW! SPX 60 min confirmed it's 2nd Phase 2 today. The projected high is 1280.08, the average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.1 trading hours, it has been over four cycle since the last average 60 min Phase 2.
Chart has been posted at my facebook SPX Cycle group.
SPX 60 min has now confirmed the 2nd Phase 1 today. What a roller coaster ride. The current projected low is 1230.7, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 7.7 hours. It has been over four cycles since the 60 min Phase 1 has had an average cycle.
A chart is posted on my facebook SPX Cycles group.
Torqputty - Yes, an increase in Buy Blocker activity would suggest that multiple time frames are going into a Phase 1. As time goes on less Buy Blockers should be active, especially when the SPX gets into a Weekly/Monthly Phase 2, then you will mainly just have the 60 min & Daily Buy Blockers being active.
northam
just a note; I notice that when buy blocker activity increases that the ‘meat’ of the current run is coming to an end.
SPX 60 min has confirmed a new Phase 2 and is currently in it's 2nd trading hour. The current projected high is 1273.13, the average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.2 trading hours. It has now been over 3 cycles since the 60 min Phase 2 has had an average cycle.
bbgold - Thanks again. Very well said. You are much more eloquent than I am.
SPX Cycles on Facebook
To join my facebook group you need a facebook account and then send me an e-mail to northam43@yahoo.com Subject: SPX Cycles Facebook
What is the advantage of the facebook group?
1. It's FREE, most already have an account there.
2. Restricted membership in the SPX Cycle group. It is classified as a secret group so only members of the group will have access.
3. Easier to follow messages & replies
4. I will be posting SPX Cycle Charts during each phase confirmed
Yes, Options=Time
I know what you mean as I used to trade short term options and holding for any period of time can lead to a big 0 on a trade if the Markets have any kind of substantial reversal.
Northam has posted before about the overall Bullishness of the Markets over time so he has developed his system to Hold the Long trades for a considerable amount of time and only Hold the Short trades for a Short time, Longs weeks to months, Shorts days to a week. Historically it is a correct way of trading the Markets, just as long as you don't buy at the highs or reversals. That has been the case this year, some buys near the high without hitting a Sell trigger and buys on the reversal without hitting a Stop signal. So now the trades he is still holding become Long term trades waiting for the historical trend to offer some recovery.
I have been looking at the Cycles system more for the shorter term trades, days to weeks, and the reversal signals seem to work fairly well. I look more for changing from Phase 2 bullish to Phase 1 bearish and back on the Weekly chart, but don't hold the trades more than a week using the short term indicators from MKTSS as reference.
If you follow the trade triggers using the Close above the UTL, Close below the LTL and the moves back into the middle trading range it might help, as to me these are the reversal points.
Good Trading!
POKERSAM
Did you forget the words "CLOSED TRADES"
What about week two of the $10,000 system ?
Have to closed those trades yet ?
bbgold - Gotcha - As north has always said, "If your system is broke, fix it." Hopefully with his new Rules he can have a better year in 2012.
I got caught last summer stubbornly holding onto a trade till it became a good size loss. It has kept me from beating my 2010 return. I trade options and they are something you cannot hold onto for a long time till they come around. After they hit their current month time decay can kill you.
I am not complaining though. 210% YTD is not too bad.
The Buy Blocker component it self does not give buy signals. It's basic only purpose is to keep you out of a buy, that is why I call it "Buy Blocker".
Hi Sam, maybe I can help
Northam's system is strictly trend following, primarily bullish trends and secondly bearish trends. It was not ready for the Market whiplash after July. Prior to July this year he had no Buy Blockers to keep him from buying into a Market Bearish reversal, so a couple trades bought into the mid year downturn. Those are the losing trades that he is holding, he also has a rule not to sell for a loss if he can help it. He has since established some Rules to help him not get stuck holding too long and prevent him from buying into a reversal. I think the new rules are good ones and will help with his system. I tried to discuss some type of stop orders for his system but the triggered Sells he has had in the past have Worked for him so he is standing pat on them.
Hope this helps to explain the loss for him so far this year.
Good Trading!
SPX 60 min has confirmed a new Phase 1, it is currently in the 2nd trading hour, the projected low is 1237.3, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 7.8 trading hours.
The SPX Daily continues it's 6th trading day in Phase 2, the current Daily cycle high of 1266.73, maybe the Daily cycle high. The Daily UTL is at 1244.33 so a drop below that level might be an indication that the Daily is going into a new Phase 1. A closing below that level will activate a Daily Buy Blocker.
The SPX Weekly price has dropped below the UTL, if it closes below the UTL a Weekly Buy Blocker will be activated. However, currently the earliest the Weekly can confirm a new Phase 1 would be the close of the market on December 16th.
So things are looking kinda bearish right now, however, right now this is just a SPX 60 min Phase 1 taking place.
northam43 - Hey, you don't have to prove anything to me. You are honest enough to admit you are underwater for the year. That in itself is a sign of real integrity. It just seemed odd to me that after 15 of 18 winners you could still be underwater. Your buy blocker improvement to your system will perhaps help.
What if you gave up the system and just used the buy blockers? I admit I know very little about your system other than you have lost money trading it. Can the buy blockers be used independent of your system? Do have to use the system to to give the buy before you use the buy blocker? Is the buy blocker a criteria that has to be met after a buy signal is given by the system before a buy can be made?
Actually it is 15 of the last 18 sells have been winners. Three sells were losses.
That did not include the positions I am currently holding. Three of the five positions I am currently holding which is SSO was bought before I established the Buy Blocker component. The other 2 positions I am currently holding are SPXU, they were bought during this rally from the 1075 low to protect gains.
There is nothing fishy about my transactions. They are all on my portfolio and there is the postings to back them up for anyone to see.
Now if I professed to make a 210% return with no proof, and had to pay $20 just to see the proof. That would be fishy. No pun intended.
snoot - Sorry but I find it hard to believe that anyone could have 15 of his last 18 trades be winners and STILL be underwater. Sounds very fishy to me. Pun intended. heh heh
For those of you that would like to follow my system on facebook. I have set up a secret group called spx cycles there.
You will have to have a facebook account which of course is free.
If interested send me an e-mail to northam43@yahoo.com with your facebook account name so I can add you to the SPX Cycles group.
We are close to a big move northam IMO. I think tomorrow will look a lot like today, maybe with just a bit more downside pressure. I think with the setup in Europe, rate cut coming Thurs am. Plus the potential for new treaties/agreement to let the ECB act as our FED acts, being the Bank of last resort, we should go up into Fri.
This spx daily chart is interesting in that the old triangle seems to still be influencing price....
SPX Cycle reports updated.
Well we didn't get that Monthly EMA 3/8 bull crossing. However, the Bear gap has narrowed to -1.71
Have a great evening!
Once again we have a Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing. Will it hold?
Once again we have a Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing. Will it hold?
SPX 60 min confirmed the 2nd Phase 2 today, the current projected high is 1282.11, the average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.2 trading hours. It has now been over 2 cycles since the 60 min has had an average Phase 2.
SPX Cycle Active Buy Blockers:
SPX 60 min Buy blocker is active until 13:00 CT
SPX Monthly Buy blocker is active until Dec 30th.
If the price hits or moves above the respective UTL, the Buy Blocker will be released, if the price closes below the UTL or a new Phase 1 is confirmed the Buy Blocker will be reactivated.
SPX 60 min has now confirmed a new Phase 1, the current projected low is 1232.00, the average 60 min Phase 1 is 7.8 trading hours.
The SPX Daily Phase 2 is now in the 5th trading day and the price remains above the EMA 3 level.
The SPX Weekly Phase 2 is in it's 2nd week and the price has remained above the UTL.
So what I am seeing here is I believe the Daily UTL needs to catch up as the Daily price is well above the UTL. So hopefully this 60 min Phase 1 will last a while but hopefully won't drop much and then hopefully the next 60 min Phase 2 will give the Monthly the boost it needs to get into Bull territory.
northam43 - I see. minus 5.67% is better than minus 15.10%. Of course it is still a losing proposition. Glad to here you have made some adjustments to your system. Maybe that will help.
I also had a big loss last summer and that is why I am only up 210% YTD. It just goes to show that those things happen even to the best of systems.
SPX 60 min has confirmed a new Phase 2, the projected high is 1278.74, the average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.3 hours.
If this 60 min Phase 2 hits the high target, a Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing will be made.
Snoot - I appreciate your comments. Hopefully that will continue.
Northram: As you just explained, an addition was added to your system that should correct the cause of the earlier loss? I saw your trades from April to current posted elsewhere that showed 15 of 18 winning trades. That's excellent results in this market envirnment!
The -15.10% is incorrect, I am currently down -5.67%.
The majority of the loss is from holding 750 shares of SSO at the beginning of this Bear market. I have been able to cushion the loss by buying SPXU.
I established the Buy Blocker component of SPX Cycles to prevent holding longs in a potential major down trend.
A Phase 1 is both down & up. When the Phase 1 is confirmed it is in a down trend, however, at the end of a Phase 1 it goes up to the UTL. Then the Phase 2 takes over.
northam43 - I just glanced at your portfolio. Is it true that you have lost 15% trading your system this year? I don't understand. If you can't make any money using your system, how do you expect us to? Boy, I think an explanation is in order.
Total cost of current holdings $ 44,204.25
Market value of current holdings $ 37,531.00
Unrealised Profit $ -6,673.25 -15.10%
Is a phase 1 down or up?
SPX Cycle reports have been updated.
The 60 min going back into Phase 1 negated the Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing today. Hopefully tomorrow we get another shot at it.
Have a great evening!
It would be more useful if you could 'reply' to the posts you are talking about...sometimes it's a guess who you are talking to...
No biggie...but would simplify thinks...thanks
SPX 60 min has confirmed a new Phase 1, the projected low is 1240, the average 60 min Phase 1 lasts 7.9 trading hours.
The SPX Daily UTL is at 1236.67, so if the 60 min drops to the 1240 projection the Daily would remain in Phase 2.
When this board was created, I clearly stated in the I-Box that this was no the board to discuss E-Wave or other systems. All E-wave discussion will be deleted.
This was placed in the I-box when this board was created:
"all I ask is that you stay on topic and don't just post general statements, that means we don't discuss EW, Hurst Cycles etc.... here. There are other boards available to discuss those systems"
All other posts will be considered off topic and be deleted.
What is a phase 2 again? Is that when the market is going up or down? It seems to me that UP and DOWN would be easier to understand.
The Monthly EMA 3/8 has made a Bull crossing the SPX currently is in an unconfirmed Bull market.
To get a confirmed Bull Market the EMA 3/8 Bull crossing must remain in effect until the close of the market on the last trading day of the Month.
SPX 60 min confirmed a new Phase 2 at the open. The average 60 min Phase 2 lasts 9.4 trading hours, the projected high is 1272.18
Also the Weekly Buy Blocker has been released, the Weekly price has crossed back above the UTL.
The Monthly EMA 3/8 is basically neutral as of this post.
Murray - The Buy Blockers keep me disciplined in my trading system. Like right now knowing that a Monthly Buy Blocker is active, I will not attempt to buy during this 60 min Phase 1, know matter how tempting it may be. It also reduces the indicators I need to focus on.
When there are NO BUY BLOCKERS active, then I follow the rule never Buy in a Daily Phase 2. So yes, my participation for buying longs would mainly be in an established Bull market. If you look at my report on Major Market Trends. You will see that there have been 213 Bull Months and 77 Bear Months since Oct 1987.
So yes, just these two rules limit my buying of longs significantly.
Now I can tighten up or relax the Buy Blockers depending on how much I am currently invested.
If the SPX Cycle System performs as I expect it to, I should be able to get out of long trades before a major decline and I should be able to hold trades longer which should reap higher returns and I should be able to reenter a long position at the beginning of a major Bull trend.
If we are currently going into a new Bull Market, if you look at my SPX Flow Chart, I have forecasted a potential long position at the end of this Month when the Monthly Buy Blocker is due to expire. If you look at the Major Market Trend report you will see that we are currently up 17.24% off of this Bear market low and the average Bull market gains 61.16%, right now the Bear gap is only -5.65 so it's possible I could be adding long positions at around the 20% range which could give me a potential of over 40% gains in a 19 month period.
Then when the Weekly & Monthly start going into Phase 1's, I would depart my longs and start adding shorts.
northam43, I believe that I understand what you are trying to achieve by utilizing buy blockers. Correct me if I am wrong but it appears that you want only to participate in bull markets when long. Bull markets are characterized by low volatility and are easy to trade. Bear and trading range markets are characterized by high volatility and are difficult to trade. Best to wait for the VIX to return below 26.
Given last weeks big bull candle I expect to see some follow through after a small pull back. The weekly SPX is curently in a green Ichimoku cloud, a neutral position. The upside should see resistance at the cloud top, upper BB at low 1300s and RSI 70 area. The past month's weekly price action is very similar to that of the summer of 2010. Perhaps we are on the verge of another bull market, although the cloud is not offering support the way it was in 2010.
NASARAVI - Yes I would say the Weekly is currently in the driver seat with the SPX 60 min, the 60 min confirmed a Phase 1 at the close, so if Monday the SPX opens to the upside the 60 min could go directly back into Phase 2, then we would have the 60 min, Daily, Weekly all in Phase 2 and none in extended mode, so that could give the boost to get the Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull crossing and then a Monthly Phase 2 confrmation.
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