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Bot NFLX Mar 2 115 Put @ .52 Sold .82 (3 minutes)
Thanks Roy!!!!!!
Glad to hear that Doris is doing better. I can't believe it has been 85 days! Now that she's out of the halo, does she grow horns? LOL.
Give her our best as usual.
Great scalping Roy
Give Doris our best
Have to take Doris to the doc. Out of here for at least an hour.
All in cash. Cannot risk the last day.
Day 85: Doris is doing well; out of the halo, but still a long way to go in the collar.
Thanks to all for the many notes of encouragement.
SLD NFLX Mar2 115 puts at .46
+.04
Bot NFLX Mar2 115 puts at .42
Edit: Risky.
Sld NFLX Mar2 115 puts at .87
+.17
Not toppy yet?
Reading the 1-min all morning. Glances at 5 and 15.
Sld NFLX Mar2 115 puts at 1.10
+.20
Bot NFLX Mar2 115 puts at .90
Edit: Is NFLX struggling here or is this just a pause before another leg up?
NFLX PLEASE go to 120 so I can recover my principal... lol
Sld NFLX Mar2 115 calls at 1.11
+.31
Sld NFLX Mar2 115 puts at 1.37
+.35
Bot NFLX Mar2 115 puts at 1.02
LOD .76
Sld NFLX Mar2 115 calls at 1.34
+.57
HOD so far 1.49
Nice trade Roy
I tried to get AAPL puts but It ran from me
Bot Spy Mar2 138 PUT @.59
Sld NFLX Mar2 115 calls at .94
+.63
Added NFLX Mar2 115 calls at .47
M-O-V-I-N-G
Edit: Average .31
Saudi oil pipeline has burst - price of oil suddenly jumped up.
Good advice - I think I jumped the gun on this one. Theta is gobbling the premium so fast I'll be lucky to get out of this one with even a loss.
So much to learn... sigh....
Thanks, Jane about the AMZN puts score. Frankly, today's action was not nearly as weak as I had judged it would be yesterday afternoon. But a very nice score and I am NOT complaining.
With regard to X at this point. I have to wonder about Mar2 27 puts. With the stock last trade at 27.72, if I paid six cents for them, the stock would have to decline to 26.94 by EOD tomorrow to break even and avoid expiring worthless.
I put extra bars on my StockCharts to allow me to make a dot on the hour of expiration and the breakeven price. Helps me in evalulating the technicals as to whether such a target seems likely, much less whether there might be an attractive low risk gain.
As a general rule, I rarely buy or hold an out of the money option on the last couple of days of the cycle. They are pretty much priced quite low for a reason, which is that the probability of reaching the money by expiration is low.
On the other hand, a strike that is out of the money by just a tad and with with technical promise to break into the money can sometimes be just the thing for a good scalp.
Another thing to think about on a favored stock is to look at what another week's time might do to the liklihood of the underlying going to and well past the money. I'm looking at X Mar9 strike 27 and see that they are selling for .35. I think I like the additional .29 cost and getting another six and a half sessions (from now). Now when I put my dot on March 9 at 26.65 the technical hill to climb seems a much easier breathe.
I'm expecting substantial market weakness in nearby days, based partly (mostly) on my own technical analysis of various indicators in several time frames, 5-minutes through the daily.
Also I pay attention to analysis and opinion by Marty Chenard, writer of Stock Timing. He is increasingly warning of the possibility/probability of a topping in the recent high inflowing liquidity which has been fueling the market strength for the last couple of months. Examination of his proprietary charts with my own slant seems to concur.
That is not to say that all stocks will necessarily particiapte to identical degrees. Currently/recently weak issues will likely perform even worse and conversely strong stocks will show stronger defense.
As always, every trader for himself. My opinions/comments may be of no value.
I am motivated to mention these ideas because of today's very nice scalp in AMZN outs.
BOT Mar2 X $27 puts for .06.
AAPL starting to roll over. X seems to follow AAPL in slow motion. I really like this stock.
Wowsers Roy - you are rockin' with AMZN!
Sld AMZN Mar2 185 puts at 7.35
+4.49 above cost of 2.86 = +156%
HOD this strike early today was 8.40
Out QQQ Mar2 64 Puts at .22 - .02
My sell order got filled right at the close yesterday.
Whew! Lost the trading fees, but better than opening at .10 this morning.
I misspoke - it's masterthegap.com.
Check on YouTube for an introductory guest lecture given to another investing group. Very interesting approach, but very complicated.
do you have link to Trading the Gap website?
do you have link to Trading the Gap website?
I learned some from a website called Trading the Gap - that certain days of the week, month, and quarter tend to have unusual activity due to hedgies.
Most of what I am learning is from several posters on the Yahoo AAPL board - specifically, the AEA guys, and Funniebucket. They are professional traders who share tidbits during the day. I have probably learned more about how the markets work from them over the past year than I ever would have learned on my own. AEA is particularly good at calling market dumps. But you have to learn their language - not native English speakers.
I'm watching AAPL because it drives the QQQs, SPY and IWM. Not actually in it myself.
That being said, I learn more about how to place options trades from this board, so PLEASE KEEP POSTING!
I am still holding my Mar2 QQQ puts .24 overnight. IWM was crashing last time I looked, so tomorrow may be down too. Hope I can get out at least at breakeven tomorrow. Got in too early.
Jane, After all you were right again. do you have list of those things to keep in mind.
Roy
Looks that way. Volume picking up on this slide. OBV dropped to negative about 1 hour ago
Much obliged, Beer. I sure appreciate the help.
So the AMZN technicals I'm reading are already showing that bias?'
Could be.
Roy I saw on another board about negative AMZN comments on CNBC
here it is
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72687403
It is also bear of the day in Zack's email.
OUT SPY Mar 02 2012 137.0 Put .57
slight gain should have waited for entry
AMZN MAR2 185 puts.
These that were loaded not long after the open have done quite well so far, fiddling around in the vicinity of a double or a little less.
Looking at the daily candles. With less than an hour to go, AMZN looks to ready to print a pretty bearish looking black stick, surely a dark cloud, or maybe even headed to an engulfing.
In which case it might be worth an overnight risk to take advantage of a pretty large position.
Very similar AMZN stock situation a couple of weeks ago was followed by a deep gap down the next day.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&id=p68283945973&def=N&listNum=1
SLV, couda, woulda, shoulda loaded puts for a theoretical (perfect entry and exit) so far +37x gain on Mar 2 34 puts.
sorry edited for error
Roy Smart1 Jmbar
For what its worth
There have been sone very large puts trades on the QQQ 64 put(not SPY) weekly. 3000 and 1000.
smartone, congrats
VERY NICE 77% gain on your early day SPY Mar2 138 puts.
I'm leaning to lower for the market along in here.
OUT at noon BOT SPY Mar 02 2012 138.0 Put.1.32
+58
BOT SPY Mar 02 2012 137.0 Put .52
BOT SPY Mar 02 2012 138.0 Put.75
There is much rotation and locking in profits, but I think it is more apparent end of quarter.
Caught me by surprise too, although it hasn't been much of a secret.
I've heard that on the last day of the month, hedge funds and other big players tend to sell off shares. If so, that's tomorrow. Have you heard anything to that effect?
I am a little more unsure now. I didn't realize Apple will be bringing out IPad3, although could also be a sell the news.
Glad to have company today. This sure didn't trade like I thought it would today. Hope tomorrow is better.
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