Traders Cooperative

[Joe Stocks]

ET reports tonight. My largest holding by far. rule breaker. Has grown to about 10% of portfolio. Full position for me is 5%. Probably should trim but I really like the fundamentals on this issue. My cost basis is about $6 less dividends.

[Joe Stocks]

GNRC - another recent buy up 8.7% on good report.
Small position. Re-looking at it, scratching my head why I did not buy more.

[Joe Stocks]

FLNG out with a great report and up here 8%!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3800525-flex-lng-non-gaap-eps-of-118-revenue-of-1146m-beats-by-438m

Average Time Charter Equivalent1 ("TCE") rate of $95,908 per day for the fourth quarter 2021, compared to $68,341 per day for the third quarter 2021.

93% of 2022 chartered.

[Joe Stocks]

<VBG>

[Joe Stocks]

Bot FBRT-E. Preferred for FBRT. Yields 7.8% here.

SOLD out of my APAM position.

[Joe Stocks]

Added some FLNG on this pullback at 19.93. Puts my average cost at 19.15 less the 75 cent dividend in November. They report tomorrow morning. Do not know why we are seeing a 95 pullback other than the Russia news. FLNG pays a heafty dividend. Usually that is a warning sign.

"FLNG is involved in shipping LNG using its fleet of 13 modern LNG carriers. The average age of its fleet is around 2 years and all of it ships have modern & energy efficient propulsion systems; MEGI or X-DF. Of the 13 ships operated by FLNG, 9 are owned by the company and 4 are under bareboat lease agreements from different lessors."

FLNG is not without risk. Good read and summation of those risk.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486719-flex-lng-stock-high-risk-investment

I have only about a 1% position in this holding.

[Joe Stocks]

By the way, raising cash here. Hard to do as most the portfolio is exchange traded debt and preferreds that pay nice dividends and a bit immune to market fluctuation.

My largest holding is ET. Over weight with a average cost of 6.21.
WES is second largest at $10.21 average cost.
I am probably too heavily weighted in energy, but it is a sector I follow. Sold all my producers and took profits. Still holding midstreams. CHK is only upstream producer held. Correction. A small position in RRC too.

[Joe Stocks]

CHK exited bankruptcy last year and the bondholders got a great deal. Market cap of about $8bil and the average projected earnings for this year is about $1.1 bil. They have said they will be returning a good part of that to shareholders. Only 117 million shares outstanding. Of course the past shareholders got screwed me being one of them. Small loss as I was trading post bk shares for speculation.

I have a nearly full position at about 4% of port with average cost at $58. Lowest buy near $40.

Reports February 23rd.

[Joe Stocks]

Preferreds spread sheets. Great spread sheets for watching for bargains with preferreds.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M18jyMWV54AAcrks45VgISIgzbxu_7uy23gSJG1Ed80/edit#gid=0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14BPDMIwDyCFAZjnzqQXqYRodWrMoUXGaXemrUEV2TGQ/edit#gid=0

[Joe Stocks]

Added to PBI-B. This is exchanged trade debt for Pitney Bowes. It senior unsubordinated debt. Goes ex-div the 17th. Stripped yield is 7.35%.

Pitney Bowes, Inc., 6.70% Notes due 2043, issued in $25 denominations, redeemable at the issuer's option on or after 3/7/2018 at $25 per note plus accrued and unpaid interest, and maturing 3/7/2043. Interest distributions of 6.70% per annum ($1.675 per annum or $0.41875 per quarter) will be paid quarterly on 3/7, 6/7, 9/7 & 12/7 to holders of record on the record date that will be 15 days immediately preceding an interest payment date (NOTE: the ex-dividend date is one business day prior to the record date). The notes may be redeemed at the issuer's option at any time before 3/7/2018 at $25 per share, plus accrued and unpaid interest, plus a Make-Whole Amount. If a change of control event occurs, unless the issuer has exercised the option to redeem the notes, the issuer will be required to make an offer to each holder of notes to repurchase all or any part of that holder’s notes for cash equal to 101% of the principal amount of notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest (see the prospectus for further information). Distributions paid by these debt securities are interest and as such are NOT eligible for the preferential 15% to 20% tax rate on dividends and are also NOT eligible for the dividend received deduction for corporate holders. Units are expected to trade flat, which means accrued interest will be reflected in the trading price and the purchasers will not pay and the sellers will not receive any accrued and unpaid interest. This security was rated as Baa2 by Moody’s and BBB by S&P at the date of its IPO. The Notes are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company. See the IPO prospectus for further information on the debt securities by clicking on the ‘Link to IPO Prospectus’ provided below.

https://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm

[Joe Stocks]

HMLP_ Another special situation fundie trade. HMLP has an outstanding buy offer from Hoegh LNG, the holding company for $4.25 a share. Shares currently trade at $4.33.

I am thinking when Brookfield Business Partners bought TOO and initially to put in a low ball offer to buy the remaining units they did not already own. TOO traded above that offer and BBP eventually raised the offer and it became a very profitable trade.

HMLP was trading at $18 last August. And were paying a $1.76 annual dividend. Now they pay a 4 cents. Here is an article that explains what happened.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479571-hoegh-mlp-is-a-hold-and-maybe-a-buy-for-some?v=1644844644#comment-91522513

I don't like these holding companies being heavy handed in these take over offers. But I think there is potential to profit on this one.

Speculative trade. 1% of portfolio. Earnings out by end of month. I don't see that a date has been announced. Certainly I think the company will be making comments about the offer. Hopefully the board has decided to turn it down.

[Joe Stocks]

Household debt chart

[Joe Stocks]

Good points. I have been online trading since 1994. Etrade rep once remarked years later that I was in their first batch of accounts. After the internet crash I ran in to a trader that had a very simple rule. He held a large position in SPY and he only held it if the S&P was above the 200SMA. And sold if it dipped below. He traded around that position but mostly out of the market with the S&P below 200. If you pull up a long term chart you can see he did pretty well. He did not do shorts. Said they put him in a bad mood wishing something would go down.

I always keep that in mind. Unfortunately many times not near enough.

Do you, or ever follow Harry Dent? Books? He theorized that we would go into the great depression about 2009-2010 based on demographics. I haven't followed him for years now. What he and I did not count on was the government going to a low to zero interest rate policy, and adding trillions of dollars in deficits to pump up the market. And now all the stimulus that had been added in the last couple of years.

To your point, now a lot of that appears to be coming to an end. We are so addicted to such an accommodative Federal Reserve along with ever increasing government spending that the US economy is in for a big hit if that comes to an end. I don't see how not only US but other countries as well can avoid it.

The S&P 200sma is at 44.53. We are currently at 4418. So right now my cash levels are rising. Most of my holdings now are dividend paying issues. Unfortunately from what I read 75% of a stocks movement is market related. So, the good can go down with the bad.
I do like to play speculative trades like some a posted. But again I like to mostly be in companies here that treat me like a partner and shares profits by way of dividends.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Here's the SPY chart of 2018
If you recall, the second half of that year is when
Powell and the Fed started to tighten...

I see similarities between now and this chart, but in my opinion, the economy is soo much weaker here.
Do we see a bit more consolidation here, and then another leg down?
To maybe SPY 390 ?

I think we could be sitting at the mid October/mid November point of 2018 here...

2018

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

I had posted this on the SPY board
A few weeks ago, and I still feel the pattern is valid,
When compared to the current 2 year SPY or QQQ charts.

Yes, we may see bounces of 2 hours to 3 days, but eventually the Elliott pattern
may very well "play out".

We've got to remember how much debt is out there and how "fragile" the consumer is,
Even with low unemployment and rising wages.
The consumer is the majority of the GDP, and once confidence cracks, spending quickly slows.

Did we just fall from point B here, the last couple of days?

Elliott

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

As I start reviewing charts,
I don't think people realize how bad... How concerning it all is here.
Mortgage rates rising, inflation running....

This all could get real ugly, really quick.
The stimulus money pumped was about the only thing keeping money velocity high,
And now this chart shows concern is growing, as it should be.

JNK

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

And thank you...
Hopefully you now have access to make the changes you wanted...
All in all, it's no big deal to me, about "control" or modifications, etc...

Have a great day!

[Joe Stocks]

Highlighted earnings this week.

[Joe Stocks]

Thanks!

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Saw your email -
and just haven't had a chance to fully address it -
No problem making changes and you have been added.

[Joe Stocks]

CLF earnings came out today. On the surface they looked bad. Looking under the hood they are much better. They announced a $1bil dollar buy back, or more than 10% of their market cap of $9.6bil. Ceo comment; "CEO comment: "With demand on the rebound, particularly in automotive, 2022 is set to be another phenomenal year for profitability at Cleveland-Cliffs. Based on our recently renewed contracts, we are now selling the vast majority of our fixed-price contractual volumes at substantially higher selling prices. Even at the steel futures curve as of today, we would expect to see higher average selling prices for our steel in 2022 than in 2021. As we look forward to delivering another stellar year in 2022 and with our limited needs for capex, we are now comfortable to implement shareholder-focused actions ahead of our original expectations.”

The covered call gives limits my upside, but gives me some downside protection if I am wrong.

[Joe Stocks]

CLF _ Covered call. Long here at 19.53. Sold the April $20's for 1.68.

[Joe Stocks]

FBRT - Blackrock jumps in with now owning 15.9% of the company.

https://fintel.io/so/us/fbrt

[Joe Stocks]

GNW - Another longer term trade that I am waiting to play out. I like the longer term prospects for both ACT and GNW. ACT is proposing to their board a $200mil dividend. There is only 163 mil shares outstanding, or $1.23 pershare. ACT trades at 85% of book. A little better than RDN and widely better than ESNT and NMIH. Of course those two are newer and don't have the legacy insured from the 2008 mortgage financial crisis. GNW owns 81.6% of ACT. ACT value per share to GNW is about $6.00. GNW sells for 4.36 here. Obviously the market believes that the remainder of GNW, mainly long term care and life insurance, is worth less than zero. GNW said at the last conference call that GNW holdings will not be contributing any more funds to the LTC and life units. Indicating that they are on there own. Imo, GNW should be selling for at least the value of ACT at this point. The way I read this is that LTC/Life sinks or swims and GNW holdings would not be affected. LTC/Life is currently profitable. GNW also says that expect to not receive any dividends from LTC/Life for the foreseeable future. And I am thinking that ACT will perform better as an independent unit.

[Joe Stocks]

SMLP - I own a fair size speculative position in SMLP.
SMLP had distributable cash flow last quarter 6.37 per share ($45.7mil). Thinking it may be possible for SMLP to have DCF in 2022 equal to their market cap today of $191.5mil. Certainly possible in 2023 as they pay down more debt. It added 20 new wells last quarter, and 45 new ones projected this quarter. And Double E pipeline up and running!
I mean, what other MLP even comes close to selling at near one time DCF?

[Joe Stocks]

CHK - CHK is one of the more intriguing positions I own. Got screwed on the BK for a very small position. Screwed so badly that I figured the bondholders would do okay with the conversion to common. $40- $45 was a steal in my opinion. Not the same company now.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3786744-not-the-same-chesapeake-rated-new-buy-at-bofa-with-pristine-balance-sheet

Warrant symbols are CHKEW, CHKEL, CHKEZ.

Adjusted for dividends warrant exercise prices here; http://investors.chk.com/warrants

[Joe Stocks]

FBRT looks compelling to me. As of September 30 book value of $17.78 per diluted share reflecting merger consideration and transaction expenses. Their merger presentation says they are targeting a dividend of 10% of book value. They now pay a 35.5 cent quarterly. Current price per share of 13.25. That is a 25% discount to book if book remains near the same. And the company said they would buy back $100 million in shares if PPS was less less than book. The earnings report on the 23rd could be interesting.

[Joe Stocks]

I prefer ALIN-A and B over the E series. A and B series are fixed rate. The E series is fixed to floating.

Thinly traded. Use limit orders.

[Joe Stocks]

CSIQ covered call. Bot at 28.03. Sold the April 30's for 2.01
Solar is hot today with ENPH stellar earnings.

[Joe Stocks]

FBRT - Bought more at 13.16. Reports on February 23rd. I have a full position on this issue at 5% of portfolio.

4th largest Commercial Mortgage Reit as I recall. Currently yields 10.79. This one is flying under the radar. Merged with CMO in the fall. Not much coverage since. Earnings report will go far in explaining the combined current book value. I feel pretty safe with this one.

[Joe Stocks]

Bot ALIN-A and ALIN-B preferreds. Special situation and risky. Divindends suspended. This may take several years to pay out. In the mean time dividends accrue. Note due in 2023. A bit iffy that ALIN defaults. ALIN is now privately held. ALIN is now owned by Brookfield Business partners.

Looks like a good earnings report. So, backing out the non-cash impairment charge of $116.4mil they would have had net income of $28.5 mil? 9% net profit adjusted? Is that correct? Preferred payment runs about $8mil per quarter. I understand they need consent from secured PIK notes lender to pay out a dividend. Dividends accumulate.
July 21 presentation looks interesting.
https://cms.alterainfra.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Q2-21-ER-Presentation.pdf

I am very much intrigued by a buy here. Bought A's and B's with average cost of $3.56 and $4.02 on the B's. Now less than 1% of port as I still evaluate and digest the risk. Usually a PIK loan would have me thinking BK filing and a bondholder trying to steal the company. But with ALIN being privately held by Brookfield Business Partners et al., and from what I understand the PIK note is also held by same, I don't see much benefit or possibly of ALIN going bk. I assume the ships are collateralized. So, no benefit there. Brookfield certainly did their due diligence before buying. And with adjusted EBITDA of $165.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 it would appear business is not that bad. I know that the big headline loss may be scaring some away, but a good part of that was a non-cash impairment charge. I don't see much benefit for ALIN to defer the dividends on the preferred for a lengthy time as the divy accumulates. I see the preferred owners and BBP somewhat aligned in the future of ALIN. I am a patient investor. I accept the 1% risk and prepared to wait this one out for years. If they were to defer the B's for years and then settle up, and they returned to par, that would be a 70% annualized return - 750% total return approx.
Saw this headline today. "Six North Sea #oil and #gas fields are set to be given the green light this year, The Telegraph" I believe AFIN has at least about 12 vessels in the North Sea.

Fitch Rating notes of Sept 2021.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-upgrades-altera-infrastructure-lp-idr-to-ccc-following-exchange-offer-expiration-03-09-2021

[Joe Stocks]

Bot PBI-B

Exchange traded debt for PBI yielding 7.2

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Lets be honest -
Biden isn't making decisions and hasn't been the whole time -
Even Obama knew he was a zero, and that was a decade ago.

This is control by the radical left -
Steps to destroy capitalism and create more power for the elite.

The Afghan fiasco just left trillions in rare earth to be utilized by China. China already threatening Taiwan to "work with them" or else...
China already taking over Africa and its natural resources.

The elite don't mind.... however they can get cheaper COGS.
We're back into the Paris Accord, which allows China to increase pollution until 2030.

US northern border is tightly controlled, but the southern border ?
Just another step to create a financial drain on the US.
Why would the elite care ? How many refugees will be sent to the Hamptons ?

Now basically need an ID to order a steak (vaccine papers required) but to vote ?

So we have more and more steps to control the people, for the
"good of the people".

We're now back to being reliant on OPEC, for the good of the environment, even though it's a global environment. Who cares about the pollution practices done on other continents.

And if you express problems with any of this, it must be because you're racist, a bigot, definitely greedy....


Has the media been blasting this admin ??!? Of course not -
We even have many, including Pelosi, who have praised Biden...

This is and has been a coup of capitalism.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

We can see stocks like PG, JNJ, and KR have been climbing.
And then we have AMZN in the gutter...
That actually could be considered as a bad sign, the rotation into
Defensive plays, and when we look at GS, it's been dropping in the past month,
Along with banks XLF and KRE.
This is usually NOT what happens when expansion in the economy is expected.
When does the debt bomb hit and when can we expect payments on debts to be demanded.
A closer look at HD and we might have a double top there.

Healthcare continues to climb...
Very possible H&S on XLE and also XOP, XLU, and $TRAN not looking great...
Thank you current administration for creating such a clusterf...
Back to banks... Back to the staples outperforming the discretionary stocks...
Possibly in anticipation of the tapering and we do have Jackson Hole, which could cause a liquidation break.

All in all, we're trying to anticipate where we're going to go over the next 2+ weeks, and profit from it.
A one or 2 day bounce doesn't fix everything. It doesn't completely eliminate the ominous signs.

Signs like the Fed and central bankers have cornered themselves,
So much has now become dependent on stimulus,
Debt payments have to be started back up at some point, which will shackle expansion, discretionary spending, and earnings...
And we're here at valuations at one of the highest points in history...
Yeah.... Nothing to worry about at all.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Prime example of negative divergence...

Breadth

Downward channel forming and if we don't climb, we will fall.
EVERYONE knows, except for the rookies, how overvalued we are...

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

NFLX is the pick to tumble hard...
It's now lost its 50 and 200, and still extremely overvalued.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Ominous signs continue to grow,
And we're now at the breaking point.
I believe it starts this week...
Grab puts because it's now become an hour by hour watch.
IWM can't regain its 50, topping signs on the main tech stocks,
See $NYFANG. Breadth weakness...

QQQ 60

If RSP rolls over, it's all going to fail hard

IWM

QQQ

[shansen1785]

Def buying calls for $ASO . Check the short interest % hehe

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Good chart
From David Larew's list on Stockcharts

Get ready.

The curve

[lfkmu]

look at CAH $60 call options 3/19/21 only $0.05 stock is rising almost every day into quarter end i'm expected at least $0.30 by early next week

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Good video...

There are times that I think this guy is nuts, but then again, when you get bubble extremes, like we currently see in $DWMI, what do you expect to happen.

The micro-caps are the most speculative plays... And currently they have gone parabolic.
Huge increase since just November 1st bottom.
This is just the last year chart and when you look at the last 15 years, the recent rise is astonishing.

Micro-cap index

[VKOptions]

Hi,

Wanted to ask about whether it is good to buy just CALL options on SPY(1 week expiration) say on Friday(which expires following week's Friday) and the following week is filled with earnings report announcement of SPY major components like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, Fb etc. ?

My Analysis:

Since i checked the estimated EPS on these major components and they have beaten the estimates + these companies have been delivering record earnings if not record but atleast good earnings to beat analyst estimates(atleast AAPL). So if these companies are reporting the earnings is it wise to buy just single CALL option as mentioned above rather than a straddle(this is standard strategy for earnings)?



Confirming Understanding on Implied Volatility:

Standard options definition is higher the Implied volatilty higher the option pricing. But when i draw Implied volatility of say SPY on chart i see whenever volatilty is high(say VIX > 27 or so) the SPY tanks and whenever Implied Volatility is low(say VIX < 22 or so) SPY goes up. So will it be good to say just in case of SPY that high implied volatility meaning best to buy PUTS and low implied volatility meaning best to buy CALLS?



Apologies for big post.

Thanks in advance

VKOptions.

[RobinAlgoTrader]

Scalping AMZN options

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

It's a great day...

It just feels like a truly nice and satisfying day.
I hope everyone is having a fulfilling weekend.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Just be cool -

and there's always the fine print to be aware of...

Any news posts should not be biased, should be based on facts, and should be shown/explained on how they would have a direct affect on the market.
Personal attacks are not allowed and posts will be deleted. Suspensions of posting ability will occur for infractions - there's just no need for arguing and displaced anger.
Knowledge is power... Posts should be based on that goal.

[nowwhat2]

Must be some kind of mistake or something....

I thought you said this was an OPEN forum ?

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

nice mission statements...

if it was all soo easy, and profitable, everything green -
no oil - no coal -
all the limp wristed, leftist sissies, frolicking in meadows...

then capitalism would have already got it done.

but you already know that.

All these lofty plans, but no project planning, management and analysis to truly get from A to Z. Keep wishing, though...

again, check at how nasty a lithium mine is, but you don't want to face reality...
but you soon will, with Biden, who won't make it a year -
then Kamala - proof positive you can sleep your way to the top.

Read up on how China is now destroying Africa, already stripping it of the resources and heavy pollution where there is very little gov't to interfere with their progress.

Again, silly me with the reality.

[nowwhat2]

Executive Order !..........Executive Order !..........



CANCEL / CANCEL / CANCEL . . . . .



Same thing TRUMP did 1st week in office





Long-live The Green Revolution !......BUY !.....





Solar-powered everything






Throw away the coal







Ding-dong the witch is dead.............


Nah-nah-nah-nah


Nah-nah-nah-nah


Hey hey hey . . . . . Good-bye











Vote for America - NOT Venezuela !.......Who wants to live in Columbia ?






nowwhat 2020

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Stability? Civility??

That's what the left calls it when you allow the rest of the world to
Fukk you over at every turn. And that's what we're back to...

Paris Accord allows China to keep INCREASING its pollution output until 2030, while we pay immediately. No wonder the elite want it and will now ship jobs back there...

The keystone pipeline... Thanks Dementia Joe, for killing tens of thousands of jobs and making us again reliant on foreign oil, where they pollute more during the entire drilling and refining process. All in the first 2 days. and the left applauds...
Like we don't have pipelines already flowing everywhere across the nation!!

Fukken stupid, brainwashed leftist mofo's who cannot logically think about repercussions... And you wonder why China just came out and said we were rooting for Biden the entire time??!!?

I enjoyed T being a prick... we needed an asshole prick in there, to stop the world from continuing to fukk us over.
You wanna know who benefits from the US gov't - certainly not US Citizens.
Even the last stimulus package... why the fukk did the majority of the money go overseas??
Fukken corrupt politicians constantly getting kickbacks...
Biden is on record - on video of blatant extortion. Ukraine, stop the investigation into my cokehead son, or you don't get a billion dollars.

Fukken unbelievable...
Yeah, that's how I really feel

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

I am posting this here because
when I posted it onto another board, in response to users bashing Trump, my post was deleted.

The elite of the world are thrilled, not the common working class.
Those in Hong Kong already know oppression and know he was on their side.

It is the media, which is controlled by the elite, which has labeled him as the great divider.

We could list out many accomplishments, like
Peace agreements and no wars,
Demanding Europe pay what they agreed to, on military costs.
Knowing China is the true enemy and demanded action.
Knowing what has happened in the inner cities and why...

And now the elite are back on track with their One currency and
One world government game plan...
You know taxes will increase substantially,
You know controls will increase substantially,
All in the disguise of, "What's best for all."
And deep down, you already know, you won't get good value for the money taken.

Exactly how long can a nation survive with many of their people demanding money
for producing nothing? With many demanding we financially take care of the those
in poverty in other countries.

Soon enough, in less than a year, once control is truly implemented,
Then the negative repercussions start...
You thought 2020 was bad... In comparison to what will happen in the next 4 years,
It may be the best year for a long, long time.

Obviously the list could go on...
Look at the stimulus package.
How much went overseas?
And 70 million for a gender study in Pakistan or something? What??
Which congressional members are getting kickbacks for that move?

America is being used as a global piggy bank, even though we're already
technically bankrupt.
Nothing happens by accident in politics.

In order to make a transition to a new system,
Major problems have to be created with the current system first.
That's where we're at.

It makes me sad and worried for what my children will have to endure.

I am posting this here because when I posted it onto another board, in response to users bashing Trump, my post was deleted.