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Bot AMZN Mar9 185 puts at .41 average
Still only partial fill (although substantial)
Interesting discussion SmartOne and Roy. If only our leaders could sit down and truly exchange ideas like this without all the hostility.
You two restore my faith in sanity.
bot
AMZN Mar9 185 Put @ .42
sld @.90 more than double 5 Minutes max
Bernanke/FED minutes
----the Fed minutes suggesting that it could take 10 years for the U.S. to get the revenue picture, spending, and the deficit repaired
What does all this deficit, debt stuff have to do with our mostly day trading? Nothing it seems to me. Most of us here are trading both calls and puts to fit what we think is going to happen in only hours or a few days. For whatever reason, we don't much care, do we? Just as long as we can reasonably estimate from technical analysis and current news what the directioin will be for our selected trading issue.
I personally am seriously concerned for the eventual effect on my children, grandchildren and great grandchildren (of whom I have [so far] seven). That's not to say that my own life won't be negatively affected in its remaining years.
roy
a greek type disaster can never happen in US because we have fiat currency
that is the madness of Greece right now.. the technocrats are driving the Greek economy in the ditch because of their demands for austerity = which is destroying greek economy which in turn is destroying government revenue which is creating a worse deficit.. it is now a mad vicious circle.
9% growth is probably implausible (but never say never -- if you had asked me I would have said a 9% cut in GDP for US is implausible as well but it in fact happen in 2008)
but wiith 4% GDP growth (Clinton years averaged 4.0 percent per year) and tax reform we can easily get to tax surpluses again.
We just need to get the two parties in US to stop protecting the 1% at ALL cost.
smartone, deficit, debt
a growing economy is the answer to our debt.
Sure. Would be, could be IF the economy grows faster than the debt.
Last year's deficit was, what 1.3T? That's something like an increase of 9% for the debt. Here it is from CBO:
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21999
Meanwhile, our GDP is growing at less than 3%.
Do we believe that GDP will ever get anywhere in the ballpark of nine percent?
BTW, I am reminded that some few months ago, John King on CNN showed a graph with debt and GDP overlaid, and he added another GDP line required to stabilize the debt (zero annual deficit) and the slope of that line was 9%.
So, could it be even argued that for the danger of deficits larger than the GDP growth to be reduced, there must be some combination of increased growth, increased taxes and decreased spending?
How much of each is possible, never mind desirable ?
All the above, I think, are facts.
My OPINION, for what it might be worth, is that the vast majority of our public thinks that if congress would only compromise, some reasonably comfortable solution could be crafted. I don't THINK (opinion) voters will let congress to do either of increased taxes and reduced spending sufficient to do the job. The rational extension of that OPINION is Greece type catastrophe. Is the whole world so addicted to deficit spending that ???????
Madness. That's the word that Denninger uses to describe Americas's political/economic attitude/situation.
I'd say again that Denninger's book is worth the time to read and thoughtfully consider.
Oh, another fact: if debt grows faster than the economy, eventually (lotta dedcades perhaps) the interest on the debt will be as large as the entire GDP.
here is the thing about our debt..
after world war 2 in 1945 our debt was $242 billion which was 120% of GDP
in 1970 our deficit 275 billion but was only 35% of GDP
what happen?? our economy grew!
15 trillion dollars is a scary number.. if you have an economy whose GDP is 15 trillion
but if your economy grows to 30 trillion in 25 years then you have cut deficit by half.
a growing economy is the answer to our debt.
smartone,
Here's an interesting link about unemployment. Credible?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news
Regarding housing. CNBC had a guy on today, who I don't know and whose name I failed to get. Supposed to be an expert on housing. He said a number of things, his summary of which was that he expected housing prices to bounce along low levels for seven years. Shazam.
Another report has a huge overhang of housing to be liquidated from holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I don't fully understand it. Do you know what that's all about?
I remain pessimistic that the European situation will have repercussions on our economy. Greece aint no way going to turn out okay. The austerity required of the citizens is too severe to actually have any chance of realization. A reduced bond haircut that is maybe going to be accepted wont solve the continuing huge mismatch between their spendiong and income. Their deficit run rate is, like, 160% of GDP. Ours has just passed 102.7%.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
I think that few citizens (us) realize the severe danger we are already in.
Current reports about comsumer debt being higher doesn't sound good to me. Reports about how many huge student loans there are (and growing) bother me. The total bucks is how much I can't remember, but it is astonishing to me. Maybe I'm just too old fashioned and my own college reference point in 1948 fogs my idea of what seems impossible today.
The debt. The deficit. Today's report that the last monthly, MONTH, federal deficit was two hundred and some billion. One month. That's an annual running rate of north of $2Trillion. Adding to a debt that is already $15.3T
One thing I KNOW is that a debt problem cannot be solved indefinitely by borrowing more money. Somewhere I read recently that the FED bought the vast majority of recent treasury bond issues. With money DEEMED into existence.
I do not insist that our economy stumbles seriously right along in here. Nevertheless I hold a very stong conviction that all this is going to inevitably end really badly. Of course I cannot know just when. No. But I have been saying here and on other venues for a couple of years now, that I expect serious financial catastrophe during the next presidential term, 2013-2016, no matter what that president's name is, or what political party.
Recommended book full of facts and analysis of going's on:
Leverage-How Cheap Money Will Destroy The World, Karl Denninger, Amazon,com, 21 bucks hardback new, 17 or so for the Kindle.
Denninger's daily comments are here, worth a look:
http://market-ticker.org/
Smart - I hate it when that happens!
FYI
sold QQQ Mar 09 2012 65.0 Put .60
in the morning
should have kept my CALL it would be 4X now
Sold TZA Mar9 $20 Call @.30 -.36 ouch!
I'm thinking that Greece deal will be announced this afternoon - may spike the market. I'm on the wrong side - I think...
roy
certainly would love to discuss with you..
my personal take is ..
the economy is already starting to improve.
without housing participating but that is going to change
our population is growing .. people have to live somewhere
the past few years have had historically less new housing because of excessive housing inventory
household formations will start to absorb the extra housing
the housing market has bottom out .. so it will no longer be a drag on economy but in fact a plus.
Hi Roy - any thoughts about what will happen to the market this afternoon with Greece?
smartone, hi
i think job numbers are going to be blockbuster.
I think recovery is fully underway.
housing is going to rebound seriously in the second half of year
Sorry, I'm not in agreement.
I'd sure be interested in your thinking that leads to those conclusions. Maybe we could discuss our differences to our mutual benefits.
BOT QQQ Mar 09 2012 65.0 Put .64
OUT BOT QQQ Mar 09 2012 64.0 Call 59
+24.
OUT NFLX Mar 09 2012 105.0 Call 2.70
+.50
kept qqq call from yesterday..
i think job numbers are going to be blockbuster.
I think recovery is fully underway.
housing is going to rebound seriously in the second half of year
Sld AMZN Mar9 180 puts at .80
+.10
Heads up on AAPL - going into their big announcement at 1pm ET. People may sell the news, whatever it is - may cause some volatility on Qs and SPY.
dotnet, hi,
Today I'm using the 1-minute and 5-minute, RSI(14), Wm%R (14),not MACD, stochastics 14,3, accumulation/distribution, Chaiken oscillator, on balance volume.
I watch the 1-minute volume bars closely, and Chaiken oscillator diverging from a/d for good clues on very short term reversals. Those two, especially, tend to predict the turns. At least on NFLX anyway, so far this morning.
I'm always alert for whether the current and recent (minutes, hours) indicators are continuing to do what they have been.
I really like Wm%R(14) (same as fast stochastics) on the 5-minute. Puts signal is when Wm dives through -50 after having been above -20 for a while AND RSI has printed (at least slightly) declining highs.
wow.you almost catch at lod most of the times.on 5 min i use rsi 14,BB bands 20,2.0, macd 12,26,9. pretty much the standard ones.i know you toggle between 1 min, 5min and all other intervals. whats the best numbers for the above indicators on 5 min chart.thanks...
Sld NFLX Mar9 110 calls at 1.74
+.32
Sld AMZN Mar9 180 puts at 1.02
-.24 = -19%
No d--- good, Roy.
Sld NFLX Mar9 105 puts at 1.16
+.49
did you also keep the NFLX over night,
Yes, from about 3 o'clock yesterday afternoon.
any particular signal?
Combination of all my usual indicators. Plus I get the feeling from recent news that NFLX may have something potential in the market that I don't know about. Riverboat gambler here yesterday. Win some, lose some. Not a recommended style. When I slip into that mode I usually lose more often than not.
Have to re-learn that lesson from time to time it seems.
Sigh.
Tripled AMZN Mar9 180 puts at .86avg
Average for the position is 1.26
I recall seeing Zeev do this bad and so ......
I know the feeling believe me....
Just curious, did you also keep the NFLX over night, any particular signal?
Beer
you held positions overnight, very unusual for you
Yeah, and much to my regret on AMZN puts. Stupid. Underwater more than 50% right now. Unfamiliar territory and I'm not sure what to do.
Making it up on NFLX I guess. POOR excuse.
Roy
Seems to me you held positions overnight, very unusual for you. Care to elaborate. I forgot AMZN doesn't trade after market closes like index options.
Bot
AMZN mar9 180 Put @ .90.
I feel this still could drop hard on Apple announcement
Sld NFLX Mar9 110 puts at 2.66
+.56
Sld NFLX Mar9 110 calls at 2.81
+.80
Sld NFLX Mar9 110 calls at 2.88
+1.69
Double plus 50 cents
I think you may have a very good point there, going to pick up some AMZN puts before close.
I was out stop hit
sld
SPY Mar9 135 PUT @ 1.11 +.22
Sld QQQ Mar9 63 puts at .36
+.11
Delayed post. 15 minutes.
OUT QQQ Mar 09 2012 64.0 Put .85
+.06
i wonder if AMZN ramp was to sell as AAPL might unveil cheaper ipad tomorrow.
OUT QQQ Mar 09 2012 63.0 Call .81
+.01
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