Traders Cooperative

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Not even a climb here at
the end of the day.....

No reason for shorts to cover and
No reason for longs to climb in, I guess...

Uranium stocks down hard today.

[farooq]

I added the board, looking forward to for more interaction, good luck.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Hey Joe -
I am a member of a Discord board -
Very competent, intelligent group -
and I have invited them to start posting here -
Some of these members used to post on the Ihub SPY board -
and we know that board is "not efficient", to say the least.

I hope you're doing well -
and once again we see the morning strength just gets sold off -
Plenty of uncertainty..... and risk aversion.... still.

I was also going to send a note to the main guy of that Discord board -
to send you an invite - if you wanted.

[jdl1979]

I just added this board. Posting for reference.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Good interview here and
It sheds light on just how complex the ripples and risks
have become in the past month.

This may help explain why we continue to see a lack of buying...
The thorough analysts may realize how huge the uncertainty is here,
and they're more concerned about risk exposure, than anything else.

And we haven't even seen much about what banks are holding Russian corporate debt
And how those loads may now be timebombs.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Check this article and
Here's one we may want on our radar....
WSTRF.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=168181109

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Friday actually surprised me...
Take a look at the chart below -
the 15 minute candles on the main ETF's.

Friday was a perfect opportunity for the Bulls to grab control and start climbing - To confirm support and start the upward rally.
We had green futures going into to open, we gapped up and then...
The Bulls fumbled badly and the selling just dominated the entire day, after the first hour. It wasn't so much a situation of shorts and Bears taking over as it was just a scenerio of distribution.

15 minute

This has become such a news driven market...
There is soo much uncertainty now - whether it is the Russia / Ukraine war, the Fed meeting this week and rate / stance questions, or even the China "quietness".

We can also see on the 60 minute chart, we may be getting a pennant and a "decision point". At this time, without any large, positive news, one has to think this pennant breaks downward and we go to below 410.

60 minute

I keep feeling a rally is "right around the corner", but downward channel markets can be brutal and last longer than you think.
That's why, at this time, it is best to just keep the powder dry and watch for the good buys to just keep getting cheaper.

A news driven market can move the ETF's 5% in 48 hours, so there is risk either way and the option premiums reflect that.... Watch for the overbought and/or oversold opportunities on the 5 minute charts and be nimble... That's about the only way to "make plays" here. That's exactly what occurred 90 minutes into the trading day on Friday. A put buyer, who recognized the upward fuel was fading... who saw the advance decliners was falling fast, was able to make good money.

Back onto my "ready for a rally" thoughts...
We're NOT oversold here and we haven't seen real capitulation signs...
We're still highly overvalued and expensive here on the longer term and so far, we're nowhere near a good, longer term buying spot here.

This chart shows the downward channel and that we're not heavily oversold, so whether you try to go long or short a bounce, be nimble and ready to grab profits quickly.
Again, in a news driven environment, with liquidation breaks occurring, you shouldn't think in "portfolio" terms.

Advance/decliners

[Joe Stocks]

SMLP - As I mentioned I was very disappointed with SMLP's 4Q report. many of us online, as well as there management were surised that more wells were not being put in service behind there pipelines.

Some thought management's outlook was too conservative for 2022-2023. Interesting read by someone who dug deeper in to the report.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493808-summit-midstream-conservative-fy-2022-guidance

No longer seeing this play out like I had, I have trimmed mt position. But, with new emphasis on domestic drilling perhaps SMLP will do better than projected.

[Joe Stocks]

ACT - Insider buy. COO for 5,000 shares at market. Mortgage insurer spun off from GNW. Stock trades at 20.58 here. Compared to the metrics of the other mortgage insurers (ESNT, NMIH, RDN, MTG) ACT should be an easy $26.00 stock after they announce they will be setting a regular quarterly dividend. Something they said they will be doing this year. At $26 that would be a 26% upside.

GNW is greatly misunderstood. And greatly under-priced IMO. The holding company basically has two units. One being ACT that they spun-off but still own 81.6%. And the other is the US Life unit that includes long term care, life, and annuities. GNW sees that unit as worth zero to them for the foreseeable future. GNW plans to not invest anymore capital in this unit and they are on their own. ACT on the other hand has value to GNW. Their ACT position is worth about $2.74 bil here. That is about $5.39 a share. GNW is selling here at 3.77, a 30% discount. And of course GNW will be seeing dividends from ACT. And GNW receives tax income from both ACT and US Life.

[Joe Stocks]

RILY - Significant insider market buy by CEO of 30k shares posted this am.

[Joe Stocks]

CSIQ - Sold uncommitted shares here at 37.10 from the $28.03 buy.
Still hold the deep ITM covered call.

[Joe Stocks]

BHF looks a lot like JXN. BHF does not pay a dividend. Their preference is to buy back shares. And they buy back a lot.
This from the last conference call. Someone asked about the buybacks.

Eric Steigerwalt

Look, let me just start out by saying we are laser focused on the strategy that we laid out a couple of years ago, and that has not changed at all. So you’re trying to get a sense of what we’re going to do going forward, and Ed will jump in here on dividend capacity. We have returned a lot of capital to shareholders, as you’re very well aware. And we still have over $700 million of buyback authorization. I think it’s fair to say either today or any time in the future, when we get buyback authorization, we intend to carry out the buyback. Now you are mentioning 4% to 6%. In 2021, we accounted for roughly 8%, so slightly more than that. Yes, I understand the stock price is higher. We still think it’s undervalued. And as a result, we are buying back stock. You see what we bought back so far in 2022. So while I’m not going to give an exact number, 4%, 6%, 8%, and it was 8% in 2021, sounds like a reasonable guide. And of course, that excludes any time that we think there is an opportunity to purchase even more. I know Ed wanted to say this, but I guess I’ll say it. We bought back 17% of our shares in 2020 at around $26 a share. So I think all of what I just said gives you a good – some guidance on what we intend to do going forward. Ed, I know you want to add.

Ed Spehar

Yes. Hi, Tracy, the only thing I would add is we don’t target a percentage of average daily volume. The reason that we have quoted those statistics today and in the past is just to give you a sense of how much we’re buying back and how active we are. So we bought back 12% of our shares outstanding last year. We’ve – as I think Eric said, we bought back 35% – shares outstanding have declined by 35% since we separated. Obviously, we take capital return very seriously, and we’ve been very active. And it’s our strategy, and I don’t really see our strategy changing.

[Joe Stocks]

JXN goes ex-div Friday.

[Joe Stocks]

Nice bounce in BHF and JXN. Thanks for the idea.

[Joe Stocks]

KNTK- Long at 59.83. Sell-off on secondary offering.

[Joe Stocks]

DLNG-A Sold these shares for 27% gain. Quick profit. In this energy market I will take the profit on these preferred shares.

[Joe Stocks]

RILY - Dropped back down to the insider buy range. Added a little at 59.45.

[Joe Stocks]

Holey smokes. - LNG CEO says of without expansion, they are sold out of liquefied natural gas till 2040!

[Joe Stocks]

Btw, my buys were small. One to keep JXN on my radar, and BHF because relative strength is below 20 and also to stay on my radar. I owned BHF before in the range and had a nice profitable swing trade.

BHF has broad institutional support and Vanguard and Blackrock both own about 9.6% of shares.

[Joe Stocks]

Jackson Financial (JXN) does look interesting. Recent spin-off. Thanks for the idea. Bot some. Not sure why these variable annuity companies don't get any respect. BHF is another. In fact, I just looked at BHF and got back in small at 45.06. I like that JXN pays a dividend. BHF does not. GNW has their variable annuity unit in run off. But, on last conference call at Q&A an analyst asked what they thought about the interest they were receiving in that unit.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461521-curreen-capital-q3-2021-investor-letter

I will have to look in to these guys more and try to find what the fear is in variable annuities.

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

and I am re-checking, but I am
assuming this is JXN

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

Over the weekend, a friend asked
me about Jackson National...
I'm wondering your thoughts.
I'm starting to check on it...
P/E of 2 and divided?
Sometimes the simplest questions are best.
If it is such a screaming value and buy here,
Then why was it allowed to get here?

[Joe Stocks]

CDR- C. Update - Looks like the way the deal is structured they get around the change of control issue.

Also, not clear what the safeguards are for WHLR not to stop making preferred dividends although the release says " independent public reporting entity that holds a significant retained portfolio of income-producing assets is intended to facilitate the undisrupted ability of the Surviving Company to pay all required dividends..."

[Joe Stocks]

CDRprC and CDRprD. Bought some CDR-A right before the close.
CDR announce last fall that they were going to look to sell their assets. The stock has been on a steady climb since. Wednesday they announced a sale of assets and remaining to be merged with WHLR.

I assumed the preferred would do well too as the common. To my surprise I noticed that the preferreds had crashed. the C's were selling for $9.12. That was down from $23 the day of the announcement. I read the press release. The press release implied the preferreds would be held by WHLR. WHLR own preferreds has had their dividends suspended. HOlders of the CDR preferreds assumed the same fate and sold. If you have to get out of a big holding of preferreds of any company the door is narrow as they trade thinly.

I decided to dig deeper and read the SEC filing. The detail there implied something different that the press release.

Company Preferred Stock. Pursuant to the terms of the Merger Agreement, the Company’s currently outstanding 7.25% Series B Preferred Stock and 6.50% Series C Preferred Stock (collectively, the “Company Preferred Stock”) will remain outstanding as shares of preferred stock in the Surviving Company following the Mergers. Both classes of Company Preferred Stock are expected to remain listed on the New York Stock Exchange following closing of the Mergers, and the Surviving Company will continue to be an independent filer of periodic reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). This post-closing structure whereby the Company Preferred Stock will remain outstanding preferred securities of an independent public reporting entity that holds a significant retained portfolio of income-producing assets is intended to facilitate the undisrupted ability of the Surviving Company to pay all required dividends on the Company Preferred Stock in accordance with the articles supplementary governing the terms of the Company Preferred Stock and applicable law.

That sounds like a separate entity and possible subsidiary of WHLR. And also appears to protect the preferred holders. Which makes more sense. How could CDR see their common holders make out so well and the preferreds get so screwed? I mean the preferreds have liquidation rights over the common.

So with only five minutes left in the session I started buying for myself and some accounts I manage. Did not buy all that I wanted as there wasn't many share sitting on the ask. If I would have had to do over gain I would have bought more above the current ask. I picked up a few hundred additional shares in after hours on ARCA. Amazes me that with all the traders I was the only one with a bid slightly over closing prices.

I hope they trade down again Monday. I would like to load up more to about 2 to 3% of portfolio. Currently just over 1%.

Link for sec 8k for merger deal;
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20220303/A422622CZZ2RUJZA22TR2ZYLW8RJEZ22Z242/

Prospectus for the preferrds;
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/761648/000119312517261053/d430623d424b5.htm

I think these preferred C series shares could double from here. I would not be surprised to see a 50% gain in days once it is know that the preferreds "Preferred Stock will remain outstanding preferred securities of an independent public reporting entity that holds a significant retained portfolio of income-producing assets is intended to facilitate the undisrupted ability of the Surviving Company to pay all required dividends"


Then there is this matter. The Preferreds have a change of control item in their prospectus. Not sure how CDR is getting around that. I owned some preferred back during the financial. The company that issued them tried to sell them along with the company was sued for not adhering to the change of control clause. To get the deal to go through the company ended up paying the preferreds par of $25.

Beware. I do pretty good with these type situations but I have been wrong before. This looks pretty clear cut to me, but my opinion is worth what you paid me.

[Joe Stocks]

Bot some DLNG-A preferreds here at 17.36. Speculative gamble. 3 million shares outstanding.Volume here is 32,500. Perhaps fixed income trying to unload Russian exposure in to a thin market. Volume on common today less than 30 day average. No rush for the exits as the preferreds would imply. Yields 12.75%. B series 13%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492898-dynagas-lng-risks-outweigh-potential-rewards
This author thinks there is too much risk. Russia biggest customer.

[Joe Stocks]

CHK - trimmed some to take profits. Actually sold the CHKEW warrants for a 40% gain. Position was getting to big. Goes ex-div tomorrow. Wondering if the dividend is propping it up, and perhaps sell-off tomorrow. Sold some April $80 calls for $4 on some of the remaining holdings.

[Joe Stocks]

CORR - Speculative casino trade here at 2.89. New 52 week lows. Actually all time lows! Earnings out on the 14th. This company is going through a transition. Now owns regulated pipelines. Preferreds are holding up

This was a $40 stock until the pandemic crushed them.

[Joe Stocks]

CLF _ Closed out this position. Nice move but near highs. Taking the profit.

[Joe Stocks]

WBA - Bot at 46.40. Small position.
Looked at it at $45 but got distracted and missed the buy. Strong support in the $44-45 range.

[Joe Stocks]

RILY - Nice! Ended the day at 65.20!

[Joe Stocks]

RILY - Long some here at 61.40.
6 insider buys posted this am.
Goes ex-div 3/8 for $1.00
Paid out about 10.00 in dividends last year.
Very shareholder friendly.

[Joe Stocks]

DHCNL - Buying the last two days. Senior unsecured unsub debt for DHC. Yields 7.8%

QUANTUMONLINE.COM SECURITY DESCRIPTION: Diversified Healthcare Trust, formerly Senior Housing Properties Trust, 6.25% Senior Notes Due 2046, issued in $25 denominations, redeemable at the issuer's option on or after 2/18/2021 at $25 per share plus accrued and unpaid interest, and maturing 2/1/2046. Interest distributions of 6.25% per annum ($1.5625 per annum or $0.39063 per quarter) will be paid quarterly on 3/1, 6/1, 9/1 & 12/1 to holders of record on the record date that will be 2/15, 5/15, 8/15 & 11/15 respectively (NOTE: the ex-dividend date is one business day prior to the record date). Distributions paid by these debt securities are interest and as such are NOT eligible for the preferential 15% to 20% tax rate on dividends and are also NOT eligible for the dividend received deduction for corporate holders. Units are expected to trade flat, which means accrued interest will be reflected in the trading price and the purchasers will not pay and the sellers will not receive any accrued and unpaid interest. This security was rated as Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P at the date of its IPO. The Notes are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company.

[Joe Stocks]

ALIN-A and ALIN-B. Up nearly 100% on these. Altera Infrastructure in good position for energy in Europe.

[Joe Stocks]

FLNG - Sold 20% of my position here. Up at near resistance. Took the 42% profit.

[Joe Stocks]

ACT - Long at $21.00. Mortgage insurer 81.6% owned by GNW.

I responded to some comments on a SA article this weekend and ran some numbers for ACT and possible projections. Not paying a regular dividend YET, but said they will start this year.

What I wrote at SA;

"Another interesting exercise is taking the $542mil in expected ACT earnings and dividing by the 163 mil shares outstanding for $3.33 per share (street expects 3.35 and 3.57 in 2023). Pay out 40% of that in dividends for a dividend of $1.33. Put a 4% yield on that for a price per share of $33.25. 4%? RDN is at 3.34; ESNT 1.8%; MTG 2.15. At 5% ACT goes for $26.60. For fun, lets look at a 4% yield for GNW's ownership. GNW owns 133 million shares of ACT. ACT at $33.25 gives it a market cap of $5.42 bil. GNW's ownership of 81.6% is equal to $4.42bil, or $8.58 per share.
I think once ACT establishes a consistent dividend the stock then takes on a whole bigger audience of income buyers. GNW has an interest to have that dividend as large as possible. I calculated a 40% payout of earnings. What if it is 50%? 50% of next year's projected earnings of $3.57 is $1.78. With a 4% yield gives you a PPS of $44.50 for ACT. To GNW that is 11.49 a share!"

GNW is currently at 3.98. I see limited downside for them. They have been in a trading range about the same for 6 years. They are so much better in shape than they were 6 years ago. One could argue that they could by GNW and get ACT cheaper, and I would agree. But GNW seems to be range bound and I think ACT could see a bounce when regular dividends are announced.

[Joe Stocks]

Interesting video on renewable energy topic

[Wishthiswasmyjob]

I gotta find time -
this weekend, to go through that SMLP release and reports...

[Joe Stocks]

SMLP - Shocked! Down 40%. Pegged this one really, really wrong.

I get that it was a weak report. Thought it was mostly priced in. Did not 2022 Guidance to be so bad.

Market cap of about $154 mil here. Adjusted EBITDA of $54.7 million and DCF of $29.9 million. About 10 million units outstanding. That is nearly $3 a unit in DCF for just one quarter.

[Joe Stocks]

>>Plenty of "uncertainty" everywhere, between the Fed, the debt,
the Ukraine, etc.... <<

And even more so today...and the market rallies?

Sell the rumor. Buy the news?

Going in to the day I had sold my hedges a couple days ago. The rally gave me an opportunity to take another position in SQQQ before the close.

SMLP earnings on deck in the am.

[Joe Stocks]

GOOGL - Bought back the put at 26.60 for 50% gain.

[Joe Stocks]

MHNC - Added at 20.52

Exchange traded debt.

[Joe Stocks]

GOOGL - PEG here of .92. Looks cheap. Sold 1 March 2410 put for $53.30. Expires in 23 days.

[Joe Stocks]

CHK out with a good report. Yeah, they missed but look at the highlights!

2022 Guidance Highlights:

Increased 2022 adjusted EBITDAX guidance to $3.8 – $4.0 billion (previous range $3.4 – $3.6 billion) with no change in capital spending
Expected to generate approximately $1.9 – $2.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow in 2022 and greater than $9 billion in adjusted free cash flow over the next five years
Anticipate paying between $900 million – $1.1 billion (approximately 13% current yield, based on current stock price) in total dividends in 2022 and greater than $5 billion over the next five years
Strong balance sheet with net debt(1)-to-2022E EBITDAX ratio of approximately 0.7x, pro forma for Chief and Powder River Basin cash consideration
Quarterly dividend of $1.7675 per common share, consisting of the first quarterly variable dividend of $1.33 per common share and a quarterly base dividend of $0.4375 per common share, payable on March 22, 2022 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 7, 2022
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18683560-chesapeake-energy-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-financial-and

[Joe Stocks]

FBRT - Not happy with their report last night. I expected a buyback as they spoke of in the merger proposal. Hopefully they are buying back here at low PPS. Market cap of $572mil. They proposed a $100mil buy back. 17%.

Yields 10.9%

[Joe Stocks]

FBRT reports tonight. Added a little at 12.85 this am.

[Joe Stocks]

HMLP - aargh! Earnings out and no news on the buyout offer. Earned 37 cents a share. Not bad for a $4.36 stock. This company use to pay a 44 cent per share quarterly dividend until they had an issue with one of their charters. Once they get that resolved perhaps they start paying a larger dividend again. Now paying 4 cents annually. The holding company offer of $4.25 looks to me to be too low and I doubt it will be accepted. The offer does help put a floor on downside. So, I see little downside risk to the trade, and significant upside potential. If they paid a $1.00 annual dividend with a 10% yield it would be a $10 stock.

[Joe Stocks]

RRC out with good report and going to start paying a dividend. Projected $1bil in free cash flow for 2022, or about $4 per share. Buyback announced too! Up 75% in after hours.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3802963-range-resources-non-gaap-eps-of-0_96-misses-0_02-revenue-of-1_57b-beats-698_01m

[Joe Stocks]

Looking to add to PBI-B tomorrow.

PBI has a senior bond that matures in 2037 with a current yield of 5.8%. PBI-B matures in 2043. Current yield is 7.9%. Big difference for a senior bond where one trades in the bond market and the other NYSE.

[Joe Stocks]

MHNC - Bot a small starter position today. Exchange traded debt for MHLD. Senior unsecured, unsub. I need to research this one more before buying more. Yields over 9% here.

Maiden Holdings, Ltd. is a Bermuda-headquartered holding company with subsidiaries that focus on serving the needs of regional and specialty insurers in the United States, Europe and select other global markets by providing reinsurance solutions designed to support their capital needs.

One thing that had me pull the trigger was institutional activity for the common last quarter.

https://fintel.io/so/us/mhld

QUANTUMONLINE.COM SECURITY DESCRIPTION: Maiden Holdings North America Ltd, 7.75% Notes due 2043, issued in $25 denominations, redeemable at the issuer's option on or after 12/1/2018 at $25 per note plus accrued and unpaid interest, and maturing 12/1/2043. Interest distributions of 7.75% per annum ($1.9375 per annum or $0.484375 per quarter) will be paid quarterly on 3/1, 6/1, 9/1 & 12/1 to holders of record on the record date that will be 2/15, 5/15, 8/15 & 11/15 respectively (NOTE: the ex-dividend date is one business day prior to the record date). Distributions paid by these debt securities are interest and as such are NOT eligible for the preferential 15% to 20% tax rate on dividends and are also NOT eligible for the dividend received deduction for corporate holders. Units are expected to trade flat, which means accrued interest will be reflected in the trading price and the purchasers will not pay and the sellers will not receive any accrued and unpaid interest. This security was rated as BBB- by S&P at the date of its IPO. The Notes are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company. See the IPO prospectus for further information on the debt securities by clicking on the ‘Link to IPO Prospectus’ provided below.

[Joe Stocks]

HMLP reports tomorrow morning. Could be interesting. Hope to hear more about the offer for $4.25. Hopefully they turn it down.