Titan Machinery Inc (TITN)

[ofspring]

I also know farmers are die hard jd or Case IH no different than Ford or Chevy... So they can always kind of predict how many parts and equipment they need in stock. JD is more expensive than Case IH imo...

[Minding]

What you're saying is helpful background, but the issues raised are about the company's declining EPS, negative Operating Cash Flow, and whether or not they're in trouble with Wells Fargo.

Kind regards,
Minding

[Minding]

The relevant questions aren't about him, but about the company. Here's the note from the 10-K regarding the new Wells Fargo restrictions.

Kind regards,
Minding

===========

On April 3, 2014, we amended our credit facility with Wells Fargo to modify and add certain definitions. The amendment also modified and added certain financial covenants.

NOTE 6—FLOORPLAN PAYABLE/LINES OF CREDIT
Floorplan payable balances reflect the amount owed for new equipment inventory purchased from a manufacturer and used equipment inventory, which is primarily purchased through trade-in on equipment sales. Certain of the manufacturers from which the Company purchases new equipment inventory offer financing on these purchases, either offered directly from the manufacturer or through the manufacturers’ captive finance subsidiaries. CNH's captive finance subsidiaries, CNH Capital, also provides financing of used equipment inventory. The Company also has floorplan payable balances with non-manufacturer lenders for new and used equipment inventory. Changes in manufacturer floorplan payable are reported as operating cash flows and changes in non-manufacturer floorplan payable are reported as financing cash flows in the Company's consolidated statements of cash flows.

64
Table of Contents
TITAN MACHINERY INC.
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (Continued)

As of January 31, 2014, the Company had discretionary floorplan payable lines of credit for equipment purchases totaling approximately $1.2 billion, which includes a $350.0 million Floorplan Payable Line with a group of banks led by Wells Fargo Bank, National Association ("Wells Fargo"), a $450.0 million credit facility with CNH Capital, a $225.0 million credit facility with Agricredit Acceptance LLC ("Agricredit") and the U.S. dollar equivalent of $150.7 million in credit facilities related to our foreign subsidiaries. Floorplan payable relating to these credit facilities totaled approximately $692.8 million of the total floorplan payable balance of $750.5 million outstanding as of January 31, 2014 and $662.2 million of the total floorplan payable balance of $689.4 million outstanding as of January 31, 2013. As of January 31, 2014, the Company had approximately $410.7 million in available borrowings remaining under these lines of credit (net of adjustments based on borrowing base calculations and standby letters of credit under the Wells Fargo credit agreement, and rental fleet financing and other acquisition-related financing arrangements under the CNH Capital credit facility). These floorplan payables carried various interest rates primarily ranging from 2.78% to 7.25% as of January 31, 2014, subject to interest-free periods offered by CNH Capital. The following provides additional information regarding each of the Company's three significant floorplan lines of credit.
Senior Secured Credit Facility—Operating and Floorplan Payable Lines of Credit
As of January 31, 2014, the Company had an amended and restated credit agreement with Wells Fargo, which provided for a $350.0 million wholesale floorplan line of credit (the "Floorplan Payable Line") and a $112.5 million working capital line of credit (the "Working Capital Line"). The amount available under the Floorplan Payable Line is reduced by adjustments based on borrowing base calculations and various standby letters of credit denominated in Euros and U.S. dollars used to guarantee equipment purchases from CNH by the Company's foreign subsidiaries. The credit agreement has a variable interest rate on outstanding balances of LIBOR plus an applicable margin of 1.5% to 2.630% per annum, depending upon the Company's consolidated leverage ratio, has a 0.3% to 0.4% non-usage fee on the average monthly unused amount and requires monthly payments of accrued interest. The credit agreement is secured by all assets of the Company, requires prior approval of acquisitions exceeding certain thresholds and contains certain financial covenants. These financial covenants impose a minimum fixed charge coverage ratio of 1.25 : 1.00; a maximum net leverage ratio of 3.25 : 1.00 through the fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2014 and 3.00 : 1.00 from the fiscal quarter January 31, 2015 through August 31, 2018; and a minimum net income, adjusted for impairment charges recognized in the years ended January 31, 2014 and 2015 and realignment charges recognized in the year ended January 31, 2014 and the three months ended April 30, 2014, of $5.0 million for the four fiscal quarters ended October 31, 2014 and $10.0 million for each fiscal year ended thereafter. The credit agreement also restricts the Company's ability to make certain cash payments without prior approval, including payments for stock repurchases and cash dividends, except that it permits paying cash dividends in an amount not to exceed 50% of consolidated net income for the then trailing four quarters, so long as no default or event of default exists prior to or immediately following such action or otherwise results from such action. The credit agreement expires August 31, 2018.
The Floorplan Payable Line is used to finance equipment inventory purchases. Amounts outstanding are recorded as floorplan payable, within current liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets, as the Company intends to repay amounts borrowed within one year.
The Working Capital Line is used to finance working capital requirements of the Company. Amounts outstanding are recorded as long-term debt, within long-term liabilities on the consolidated balance sheets, as the Company does not have the intention or obligation to repay amounts borrowed within one year. The balances outstanding on the Working Capital Line as of January 31, 2014 and 2013 are disclosed in Note 8.
CNH Capital Floorplan Payable Line of Credit
As of January 31, 2014, the Company had a $450.0 million credit facility with CNH Capital. The available borrowings under the CNH Capital credit facility are reduced by outstanding floorplan payable, rental fleet financing and other acquisition-related financing arrangements with CNH Capital. The CNH Capital credit facility has interest rates equal to the prime rate plus 4% on new borrowings, subject to any interest-free periods offered by CNH Capital, and automatically renews on August 31 of each year unless earlier terminated by either party. Repayment terms vary by individual notes, but generally payments are made from sales proceeds or rental revenue from the related inventories. The balances outstanding with CNH Capital are secured by the related inventory. The CNH Capital credit facility contains certain financial covenants that impose a maximum level of adjusted debt to tangible net worth of 3.0 : 1.0 and a minimum debt service ratio of 1.2 : 1.0. It also contains various restrictive covenants that require prior consent of CNH Capital if the Company desires to engage in any acquisition of, consolidation or merger with any other business entity in which the Company is not the surviving company; create subsidiaries; move any collateral outside of the U.S.; or sell, rent, lease or otherwise dispose or transfer any of the collateral, other than in the ordinary

65
Table of Contents
TITAN MACHINERY INC.
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (Continued)

course of business. CNH Capital's consent is also required for the acquisition of any CNH dealership. In addition, the CNH Capital credit facility restricts the Company's ability to incur any liens upon any substantial part of its assets.
Agricredit Floorplan Payable Line of Credit
As of January 31, 2014, the Company had a $225.0 million credit facility with Agricredit. The Agricredit credit facility may be used to purchase or refinance new and used equipment inventory and has a variable interest rate on outstanding balances of LIBOR plus an applicable margin of 4.75% to 5.25% per annum, depending upon the Company's average daily outstanding balance. The Agricredit credit facility allows for increase, decrease or termination of the credit facility by Agricredit on 90 days notice. Under covenants of the Agricredit credit facility, the Company had agreed, among other things, to maintain certain financial covenants that impose a minimum fixed charge coverage ratio of 1.25 : 1.00 and a maximum net leverage ratio of 3.25 : 1.00 as of January 31, 2014, to submit certain financial information, and to obtain prior consent from Agricredit if the Company desired to engage in any acquisition meeting certain financial thresholds. The maximum net leverage ratio will be 3.00 : 1.00 effective January 31, 2015. The balances outstanding with Agricredit are secured by the related inventory. Repayment terms vary by individual notes, but generally payments are made from sales proceeds or rental revenue from the related inventories.

[ofspring]

I do know alot about farming and I know the Dakotas dont have squat compared to IOWA Illinois Nebraska Texas beef and feeder cattle .. Charts also shows what the busiest time for farmers and equipment. ... FALL

Also TITN cut some shops already do to lack of sales I suspect that if they are hurting that bad as he saids there will be more to clean up the books... It will make than stronger in the end...m

[ofspring]

Where was he when we had record prices of corn soybeans a couple yrs back???? Did the forecasters forcast a drought to make the prices go up???? NO so really hes going off no droughts in the next couple yrs... I doubt that...

[Minding]

You're right. He doesn't mention any of that.

You are perhaps aware of the difficulty farming is having with the railroad in ND because so many trains are reserved for the oil boom.

As for the possibility of going bankrupt, you perhaps have a better feel for TITN than I do, but declining numbers have been reflected in the chart since early 2012.

Kind regards,
Minding

[ofspring]

I am sure that guy of yours didn't factor in the RECORD BEEF PRICES IN JULY or HOGS or FEEDER CATTLE. .. Plus the booming construction in the Dakotas Minnesota or IOWA for that thought.... Its plain silliness to think it would go BK ...

[Minding]

He hasn't shared that information with me and it's not relevant to my research.

In each of the following categories there are various ways to misrepresent the CFS:
Shift financing cash inflows to the Operating section.
Shift normal operating cash outflows to the Investing section.
Inflate operating cash flow using acquisitions or disposals.
Boost operating cash flow using unsustainable activities.

The question is whether or not TITN is doing any of this. For instance they built up their inventory; are they paying their vendors on-time, too slowly? Are they recording receivables as cash before receiving he funds?

Operating cash flow from the 2011 and 2012 10-K:
2011 -- (35,008)
2012 -- (182,185)
2013 -- (115,325)
2014 -- (82,243)

Receivables in 2013 were (41,598) and in 2014 they were 13,067. That's a huge swing from a negative to positive number. In 2011 and in 2012 the numbers were closer to 2013.

Just rummaging at the moment.

Kind regards,
Minding

[Minding]

Analyst's estimates and recommendations are part of what confound the issue. But we know better than to automatically believe in their recs.

In TITN's case, earnings forecasts are not the contrarian factor; though forecasts have dropped they've remained positive. The issue is their negative Operating Cash Flow and how the number was derived. Using the book Financial Shennanigans as my guide I'm working to better understand this part of the Cash Flow Statement.

Kind regards,
Minding

[ofspring]

Sounds like hes got a real high short position. .. Shorts will have to cover real soon....

[Minding]

Here's an explanation by Markowitz in a short video explaining his 'EPS Syndrome'. He uses a few real life examples: http://www.screencast.com/t/eFjn4VCj

Since TITN is on his list of companies that meet the definition of an EPS Syndrome company, I am investigating TITN.

Kind regards,
Minding

[ofspring]

Quarter 2 has estimates at .10, 3 rd quarter .33 analysts have buy and hold more than sells only 3 sells right now...

[Minding]

If any lurkers here are interested in a DD discussion about TITN's BS, P&L, and CFS, please chime in.

The 10-K can be found at the SEC's website:
2014 - http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=1409171&accession_number=0001445305-14-001316&xbrl_type=v#
2013 - http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=1409171&accession_number=0001047469-13-004179&xbrl_type=v#

Kind regards,
Minding

[ofspring]

Whatever man all ya really need to know is shorts will have to cover tomorrow TITN .... Gl

[Minding]

Danger: Titan Machinery Bond Hits All-Time Low

This is from a different author though I don't know if the two authors know each other.

Kind regards,
Minding

=============

From http://seekingalpha.com/article/2452235-danger-titan-machinery-bond-hits-all-time-low

August 26, 2014

Summary

Titan Machinery Convertible Indenture (2019) hit a new all-time low yesterday @ $79.00 yield 9.39%.
Titan Machinery will be reporting FY2015 2nd quarter financials for the period ending July 31, 2014 within the next month.
The stock has closed below $14 for the ninth consecutive session.
The end of Titan Machinery (NASDAQ:TITN) appears to be rapidly approaching. The common stock of Titan Machinery has fallen from its all time high @ $32 to a new 4 year low this month at $13.30. Titan has constantly struggled to generate positive cash flow over the last 5 years and was in dire need of the $150 million convertible indenture it received in April 2012 through Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

Since the original note was issued, Wells Fargo has tightened the covenants on the terms of the loan, making the bond more speculative, resulting in the indenture hitting a new all-time low yesterday @ $79.00, with a yield of 9.39%. #bearish

Bond:
Titan Machinery (TITN)
Convertible Bond 3.75% Maturity:2019.
Closed Yesterday: $79.00 w 9.39% yield.

Date of Offering : April 18,2012

Amount of Debt: $150 million Convertible

http://www.cherrytree.com/news/releasearchive/titan_0412.htm

(more on investment banker Cherry Tree can be found here)

Stock: (Stock Research)
Titan Machinery closed yesterday at $13.65 on volume of 120,358 shares. The stock has closed below $14 for the ninth consecutive session.

Titan Machinery FY2014 annual report (10K) .

FY 2014 Net Income declined 79% from $42 million in FY 2013 to $8.8 million for FY 2014.
April 10th announced the closing of 7 construction stores and 1 agriculture location

[Minding]

This is form December 2012 but still applies.

To refute the arguments, we need three things: A Balance Sheet, a P&L Statement, and a Cash Flow Statement. It's best to compare year-over-year going back a few years. That's where I'm looking and why I bought the books I mentioned in an earlier post.

The question is whether or not they're in trouble and hiding it (intentionally or unintentionally). There is evidence that suggests they are in trouble. I'm looking to refute that evidence.

Kind regards,
Minding

=============

From http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/10/the-fine-line-between-legal-and-illegal-insider-trading/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

The Fine Line Between Legal, and Illegal, Insider Trading

The steady drumbeat of insider trading cases brought by the government has continued, and corporate officers have not avoided scrutiny.

The latest case involves the retailer Big Lots, which last week disclosed that it had received a grand jury subpoena for records related to about $10 million in stock sold by its chief executive, Steven S. Fishman.

About a month after the sale, Big Lots announced a loss, and the stock declined approximately 25 percent. The investigation of Mr. Fishman’s trading will focus on how concrete the information about the company’s looming loss was when he decided to sell the shares. Coincidentally, Mr. Fishman also announced last week that he would retire in 2013 to spend more time with his family.

The laws against insider trading were intended to specifically guard against employees — the insiders – from unfairly profiting from important corporate information that was not yet public.


White Collar Watch
Trading by a corporate insider is always going to run the risk of being viewed as illegal if information later emerges showing that the trade was particularly prescient.

To address the issue of how insiders can trade in their company’s shares, the S.E.C. in 2000 adopted Rule 10b5-1 to give corporate employees a means to buy and sell without fearing potential securities fraud charges.

Under the rule, an insider can put in place a plan to trade company shares when the person does not have inside information. That allows a corporate employee to “carry out those pre-planned transactions at a later time, even if they later become aware of material nonpublic information.”

In other words, it is a type of legal insider trading because the plan must prevent the insider from changing the transaction by having in place a mechanism for the timing of the trades and the amounts involved.

But questions have been raised about whether executives can manipulate Rule 10b5-1 plans while still taking advantage of inside information. The plans can be put in place at any time, and changed or modified once adopted. Moreover, they do not commit the person to make any trades because they can be canceled, which can be another means of taking advantage of changes in a company’s fortunes.

A Rule 10b5-1 plan is not a guarantee that insider trading charges will not be brought. Instead, it is a defense that can be offered if the S.E.C. decides to pursue an investigation. In such a case, those who traded would have to prove that the plan was followed and was not put in place at a time when they were in possession of inside information.

Charges have been brought for trading under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. For example, the S.E.C. accused Countrywide Financial’s former chief executive, Angelo R. Mozilo, of selling $140 million worth of shares through multiple plans he adopted after he is said to have learned of serious problems in the company’s subprime mortgage operation. The Justice Department convicted Qwest’s former chief executive, Joseph P. Nacchio, of insider trading, finding that he sold shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan that accelerated his trading after he learned that the company would not meet revenue targets.

A recent study in The Journal of Finance concluded that “opportunistic” trades by corporate insiders, defined as transactions that are not part of a regular pattern of trading, generated a much higher rate of return. If Rule 10b5-1 has become a means to trade on inside information while gaining a bit of protection, then the rule is not effective in preventing insiders from abusing their access to corporate information.

Most corporate officers are going to have access to some confidential information about the company. After all, what shareholder would want a chief executive who can plausibly profess ignorance about where the company was headed?

There have been proposals to tweak Rule 10b5-1 to cut down on potential abuses of the protection it can provide. In 2002, the S.E.C. considered requiring that such plans be disclosed by companies so that investors would know when an executive planned to trade, but the idea never went any further. Kevin M. LaCroix, writing on the D&O Diary blog, suggests that there be an interval between the plan implementation and the trading, and that only a single plan be permitted for each insider.

Other methods can also limit the possibility of insider trading by corporate officials. First, curtail the discretion allowed for Rule 10b5-1 plans so that corporate insiders are locked into a trading program once it is adopted.

The S.E.C. could model this on flexible spending accounts, like those for health care and child care costs. Employees who participate in these plans must predetermine how much they will contribute in the next year to their account, and for the most part, they are locked in to those spending levels. Giving corporate insiders an annual window to adopt a plan to trade in their company’s stock for the next year could take out much of the potential to misuse inside information.

One rationale for Rule 10b5-1 plans is to allow insiders to diversify their investments. Therefore, requiring advance planning should not be a problem for insiders whose primary goal is to reallocate their investments.

Treating Rule 10b5-1 plans like flexible spending accounts would not alleviate all concerns about insider trading by corporate officials because they could still buy and sell without adopting such a plan. For example, Mr. Fishman’s sale of his Big Lots shares was not part of a Rule 10b5-1 plan, so he will not get the benefit provided by the rule in his defense.

So my second suggestion is a more radical step: make Rule 10b5-1 plans mandatory for all insider purchases or sales of company shares made on the open market. Such a rule could be limited to the most senior corporate officers, who are already well compensated. And the S.E.C. could permit exemptions in cases of demonstrated need, perhaps allowing the company’s board to authorize trading while publicly disclosing its decision.

If corporate insiders are taking advantage of their access to information and sometimes using Rule 10b5-1 plans to benefit from the protection it provides, then the S.E.C. should consider ways to turn the rule’s mechanism to its advantage to reduce the potential for any insider trading.

[Minding]

Insider selling is only a good idea in certain situations and is a very bad idea in other situations.

Kind regards,
Minding

===========

From http://www.sec.gov/answers/insider.htm

"Insider trading" is a term that most investors have heard and usually associate with illegal conduct. But the term actually includes both legal and illegal conduct. The legal version is when corporate insiders—officers, directors, and employees—buy and sell stock in their own companies. When corporate insiders trade in their own securities, they must report their trades to the SEC. For more information about this type of insider trading and the reports insiders must file, please read "Forms 3, 4, 5" in our Fast Answers databank.

Illegal insider trading refers generally to buying or selling a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, while in possession of material, nonpublic information about the security. Insider trading violations may also include "tipping" such information, securities trading by the person "tipped," and securities trading by those who misappropriate such information.

Examples of insider trading cases that have been brought by the SEC are cases against:

Corporate officers, directors, and employees who traded the corporation's securities after learning of significant, confidential corporate developments;
Friends, business associates, family members, and other "tippees" of such officers, directors, and employees, who traded the securities after receiving such information;
Employees of law, banking, brokerage and printing firms who were given such information to provide services to the corporation whose securities they traded;
Government employees who learned of such information because of their employment by the government; and
Other persons who misappropriated, and took advantage of, confidential information from their employers.
Because insider trading undermines investor confidence in the fairness and integrity of the securities markets, the SEC has treated the detection and prosecution of insider trading violations as one of its enforcement priorities.

The SEC adopted new Rules 10b5-1 and 10b5-2 to resolve two insider trading issues where the courts have disagreed. Rule 10b5-1 provides that a person trades on the basis of material nonpublic information if a trader is "aware" of the material nonpublic information when making the purchase or sale. The rule also sets forth several affirmative defenses or exceptions to liability. The rule permits persons to trade in certain specified circumstances where it is clear that the information they are aware of is not a factor in the decision to trade, such as pursuant to a pre-existing plan, contract, or instruction that was made in good faith.

Rule 10b5-2 clarifies how the misappropriation theory applies to certain non-business relationships. This rule provides that a person receiving confidential information under circumstances specified in the rule would owe a duty of trust or confidence and thus could be liable under the misappropriation theory.

For more information about insider trading, please read Insider Trading—A U.S. Perspective, a speech by staff of the SEC.

[ofspring]

LOL BK???? you would think that one of the insiders would know when to sell and yet there is none....http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1409171.htm

[Minding]

Volume is on the side of those supporting the stock today and a short squeeze is possible. But it may be a last gasp for bulls if Markowski is correct. And I've still seen no effort to address Markowski's arguments which include:

* Over its last five fiscal years Titan has reported a cumulative $132 million in earnings or net income while at the same time generating $462 million of negative cash flow.
* They've generated positive earnings while generating negative cash flow since going public. This is not a viable business model.
* TITN has too much inventory will have to liquidate at a discount.
* They increased total liabilities to $1.19B at the end of their first quarter and may have violated or may soon violate their credit agreement with Wells Fargo, which was already amended.
* Management lowered EPS guidance three times in FI 2014.

Markowski's conclusion is TITN may be forced into bankruptcy by the end of the current quarter.

Having bought Puts my downside is limited and acceptable.

Kind regards,
Minding

[ofspring]

HIGH SHORTS everyone knows what that means....

http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=titn&submit=Short+Quote%99

[ofspring]

You know fall is here and you that farmers buy equipment for harvest on top of when they do the most trade ins is before the first of the yr for write offs and depreciation on equipment. .. Just because the prices of crops are down doesn't mean they dont need equipment. .. The last 3 yrs the chart in the fall the pps goes up.... TITN

[Minding]

Markowski (http://onlinefinancialsector.com/main.html) has a singular focus with concentrated facts that are pretty convincing and not easily dismissed (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TITN). I've seen no effort to address his argument, certainly nothing comprehensive. If anyone has, please post links here. I'll be doing some digging this weekend.

The company has thus far pretty much ignored Markowski and wouldn't surprise me with an upbeat report on the 9th. Because they're in the spotlight due to Markowski's articles, it's a good time to remember or research the ways a company can spin numbers positively so you can verify what they're saying. (I've got two books arriving this weekend so I can brush up: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071703071/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
and http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0684863758/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s01?ie=UTF8&psc=1)

It's true there's been no insider selling (http://openinsider.com/search?q=titn) but short interest is very high and has been increasing (http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=titn&submit=Short+Quote%99). I mention this, not because its an argument against the company but worth knowing if you're long (or short). The stock price is closer to 2008 levels than it's been since 2008.

Disclosure: I've been following Markowski's TITN argument over the past two months. I am only recently short TITN, having bought Puts.

Kind regards,
George

[ofspring]

Anxious to see if the cutting of the stores helped the numbers TITN...

[ofspring]

Earnings out September 9 TITN....

[ofspring]

TITN Book Value $19.23

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TITN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62644462939&r=9553

[ofspring]

No insiders selling since jan 2013...

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1409171.htm

[ofspring]

Shorts


Titan Machinery Incorporated
$ 14.01
TITN
-0.38
Daily Short Sale Volume
view
Short Interest (Shares Short)
4,574,500
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
34.8
Short Percent of Float
26.94 %
Short Interest - Prior
4,552,300
Short % Increase / Decrease
0.49
Daily Naked Short Selling List
view
Short Squeeze Ranking™
view
% From 52-Wk High ($ 20.96 )
-33.16%
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 14.19 )
-1.27%
% From 200-Day MA ($ 16.64 )
-15.81%
% From 50-Day MA ($ 16.40 )
-14.57%
Price % Change (52-Week)
-32.19%
Shares Float
16,980,000
% Owned by Insiders
% Owned by Institutions
Market Cap.
$ 293,509,500
Trading Volume - Today
121,818
Trading Volume - Average
131,400
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average
92.71%
Earnings Per Share
0.23
PE Ratio
68.48
Record Date
2014-JulB

[ofspring]

Its a good thing that cattle are hot right now to feed them cheap..

Feeder Cattle (E)
Contract High Low Last Change Time
Aug 14 (GFQ14) 222.225 221.625 221.950 +0.700 08:18
Sep 14 (GFU14) 221.425 220.800 220.950 +0.225 08:12
Oct 14 (GFV14) 220.700 219.900 220.075 +0.025 08:39
Nov 14 (GFX14) 218.750 218.100 218.250 +0.100 08:39
Jan 15 (GFF15) 213.850 213.600 213.850 +0.100 05:32
Mar 15 (GFH15) 211.400 210.875 210.875 -0.250 08:38
Apr 15 (GFJ15) 211.675 211.525 211.675 +0.000 10:22
May 15 (GFK15) 210.875 210.875 210.875 +0.375 08:38


Live Cattle (E)
Contract High Low Last Change Time
Aug 14 (LEQ14) 158.400 158.100 158.300 -0.150 08:24
Oct 14 (LEV14) 155.850 155.475 155.625 -0.025 08:29
Dec 14 (LEZ14) 156.025 155.750 155.975 +0.075 08:27
Feb 15 (LEG15) 156.300 155.925 155.975 -0.175 08:29
Apr 15 (LEJ15) 156.925 155.275 155.725 -0.525 03:41
Jun 15 (LEM15) 148.475 147.500 147.800 -0.075 03:01
Aug 15 (LEQ15) 146.725 145.975 146.000 -0.175 01:26
Oct 15 (LEV15) 147.850 147.625 147.625 +0.000 02:52
Dec 15 (LEZ15) 147.950 147.700 147.700 +0.000 02:52

[ofspring]

Corn prices

Corn (E)
Contract High Low Last Change Time
Sep 14 (ZCU14) 356-6 355-4 356-6 +0-4 08:39
Dec 14 (ZCZ14) 367-6 366-4 367-4 +0-2 08:40
Mar 15 (ZCH15) 380-2 379-2 380-2 +0-2 08:40
May 15 (ZCK15) 388-4 387-4 388-4 +0-2 08:37
Jul 15 (ZCN15) 395-6 395-0 395-6 +0-4 08:40
Sep 15 (ZCU15) 402-0 402-0 402-0 -0-2 07:00
Dec 15 (ZCZ15) 410-2 408-6 409-4 -0-4 07:38
Mar 16 (ZCH16) 418-6 417-0 418-6 -3-2 12:35
May 16 (ZCK16) 426-0 424-4 426-0 -3-0 01:15
Jul 16 (ZCN16) 430-0 429-2 430-0 -2-2 01:14
Sep 16 (ZCU16) 424-4 424-4 424-4 -1-2 01:11
Dec 16 (ZCZ16) 416-6 415-0 415-4 -1-6 12:57
Jul 17 (ZCN17) 447-0 447-0 447-0 -1-4 07/21/14
Dec 17 (ZCZ17) 427-0 425-4 425-4 -1-0 08/04/14

http://farmfutures.com/ffQuotesElectronic.aspx

[ofspring]

Thats comical experts say prices of corn is going down in the next few yrs but What weather man can perdict a drought???? Thats why it went to $6.79 a bushel...I wonder what weather man or expert actually Predicted that 2013 in the midwest would have a drought 2 yrs early???? You want to see corn go up have a drought right by chicago..


$6.79 per bushel on July 31, 2013.
The following excerpts are from an article “With no sign of increased demand, farmers battle falling corn prices” that was in the Omaha World Herald newspaper on Sunday August 3, 2014:
Corn prices are below the cost of production this year for the first time since 2005.
But the rapid reversal of grain prices and downward predictions are enough to make Nebraska and Iowa farmers think back to 1981, when profits disappeared and 15 straight years of losses triggered the farm crisis that collapsed thousands of farms’ finances.
“I don’t think it’s dawned on everybody yet how serious this is going to be,” said Dennis Bauer of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln extension office in Ainsworth. “It’s going to be far-reaching, not only the producers but the equipment dealers, car dealers, everybody. “It’s a train wreck ready to happen.”
But agriculture is cyclical, and many experts believe the cycle is headed down. The Agriculture Department predicts that corn prices will average $3.65 next year, bottom out at $3.30 in 2016 and stay below $4 a bushel until 2023. Soybeans, the Midlands’ second-largest crop, will follow suit.
The price of a bushel of corn falling to below a farmer’s cost to produce it for the first time in nine years is a worse than a bad omen. The result is that widespread pessimism and the predictions of even lower crop prices are now rampantly spreading throughout the USA’s farming communities. This makes it virtually impossible for anyone to get farmers to open their wallets for anything much less get them to make purchases of new or used farm equipment.
- See more at: http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/investing-strategies/fundamental-analysis/exclusive-commentary-titan-machinery-shares-on-the-verge-of-collapse#sthash.EFroi79m.dpuf

[EZ Trader]

"Titan Machinery shares on the Verge of Collapse due to extremely weak Financials and Plummeting Crop Prices"

See more at: http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/investing-strategies/fundamental-analysis/exclusive-commentary-titan-machinery-shares-on-the-verge-of-collapse

[Minding]

The SA Article from 6/20/2014 hasn't been addressed here. It follows on the heels of a similar article a few months earlier. The essence seems to be that TITN's balance sheet is very week and their contract with Wells Fargo is going to make demands on their inventory that will take the company spiraling downward.

The arguments seem sound. I'd love to hear counter-arguments from anyone here who has read and analyzed points the articles and remains positive on TITN.

Here are links to both:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2279103-declining-profits-and-higher-credit-costs-add-risk-to-titan-machinery-as-a-going-concern

http://www.4-traders.com/TITAN-MACHINERY-INC-416835/news/Titan-Machinery--Why-Titan-Machinery-is-a-Perfect-Short-18139337/

Kind regards,
Minding

[ofspring]

TITN

Sector: Services
Industry: Industrial Equipment Wholesale
Shares Out. (M)
20.95
Shares Float (M)
16.98
% Held by Insiders
24.61
% Held by Institutions
89.60
Shares Short (K)
4710
Shares Short Prior Month (K)
4880


Target:
Six months: 19.89 One year: 21.32
Support:
Support1: 15.06 Support2: 12.53
Resistance:
Resistance1: 17.03 Resistance2: 18.25
Pivot:
15.90
Moving Averages:
MA(5): 16.41 MA(20): 16.11
MA(100): 16.46 MA(250): 17.02
MACD:
MACD(12,26): -0.10 Signal(12,26,9): -0.19
%K %D:
%K(14,3): 71.52 %D(3): 67.01
RSI:
RSI(14): 50.36
52-Week:
High: 20.96 Low: 14.19 Change(%): -16.5
Average Vol(K):
3-Month: 247 10-Days 169


Financial Analysis
Growth**

Growth measures the growth of both a company's revenue and net income. it tells investors how fast a company is growing.
Profitability *****

Profitability measures a company’s ability to generate earnings as compared to its expenses and other relevant costs.*

Solvency
Solvency measures a company's ability to meet its long-term debts. Acceptable solvency ratios will vary from industry to industry.
Efficiency****

Efficiency measures the strength of a company's return on invested capital. It can identify business that are better managed or not.

[ofspring]

Looks like a good time to get back in...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TITN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t50828585317&r=1403224585664

[ofspring]

Agriculture

Agriculture segment revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 decreased 2.1% compared to the same period last year. The revenue decrease was due to an Agriculture same-store sales decrease of 1.2% over the first quarter of fiscal 2014 , resulting from challenging industry conditions such as decreases in agricultural commodity prices and projected net farm income, which negatively affected customer sentiment in the first quarter of fiscal 2015 as compared to the same period in the prior year. The commodity price of corn, which is the predominant crop in our Agriculture store footprint, decreased significantly from the price during the first quarter of fiscal 2014, mainly as a result of an increase in U.S. corn supply compared to the prior year. Net farm income has been strong and increasing in many of the recent years, however, in February 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture published its projection of a decrease in net farm income from calendar year 2013 to 2014.

Agriculture segment income before income taxes for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 decreased 58.5% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a decrease in gross profit on equipment and recognition of realignment costs. The compression in equipment gross profit margin was primarily caused by the previously discussed Agriculture industry challenges as well as an oversupply of used equipment in the Agriculture industry. The realignment costs of $0.7 million related to an Agriculture store closed in April 2014.

Construction

Construction segment revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 increased 23.0% compared to the same period last year. The revenue increase was due to a same-store sales increase of 24.4% over the first quarter of fiscal 2014 . The increase in Construction segment revenue, which included increases in all lines of business, resulted from improved industry conditions and the positive impact of operational initiatives.

Our Construction segment loss before income taxes was $5.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 compared to segment income before income taxes of $6.5 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2014 . This improvement was primarily due to the increase in revenue, improved gross profit margins for equipment, parts and service, and partially offset by an increase in operating expenses and realignment costs. The increase in gross profit margins was primarily due to the aforementioned industry and operational improvements. The increase in operating expense reflects increase commission costs, resulting from higher gross profit, and higher occupancy costs associated with store building improvements. Realignment costs totaling $2.3 million were recognized during the first quarter of fiscal 2015 related to the headcount reductions and closing of seven Construction stores, which was discussed above.


23
Table of Contents

International

International segment revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 increased $2.6 million compared to the same period last year, primarily due to new store openings, and a same-store sales increase of 1.9%.

Our International segment loss before income taxes was $3.1 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 compared to segment loss before income taxes of $0.5 million for the same period last year. This decrease was primarily due to increases in operating expenses, and floorplan interest expense, and a decrease in interest income and other income (expense), as compared to the comparable period of the prior year. Operating expenses increased due to expanding our distribution network in Eastern Europe, including opening a new store in Ukraine and establishing a European operations center to support our European stores. We believe the political and economic instability in Ukraine has had a negative affect on our revenue, which reduces our ability to leverage these fixed operating costs. The increase in floorplan interest expense for the first quarter of fiscal 2015, as compared to the same period in the prior year, was primarily due to the increase in floorplan payable and the related equipment inventory balances in our International segment. The decrease in interest income and other income (expense) was primarily due to foreign currency losses in Ukraine, resulting from a devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia in the first quarter of fiscal 2015

[ofspring]

Looking good at TITN
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TITN&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t66942200178&r=1401418008733
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TITN&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TITN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62644462939&r=9553

[ofspring]

Volume huge the last few days TITN....

[ofspring]

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1409171.htm

[ofspring]

Looks like ya better get in before June 5... TITN Lots planting going on should be a good quarter coming up...

[ofspring]

TITN BOOK VALUE $19.52>>>>>> http://wallstreetlivechat.com/stockcharts/titn/

[ofspring]

Thease analysis are always 2 steps behind the market stock after stock has been proven... $19.00 a fair price TITN...

[ofspring]

Yea but the cuts are good to make leaner... The news doesnt always tell the truth whats going on.. Spring is here and farmers are in full force... Usually this pops in the spring and with high short position got nice squeeze TITN....

[Penny Roger$]

Wild stuff! Good volume too. Interesting developments. Jobs cut, losses.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TITN+Headlines

[ofspring]

Have you looked at TITN lately????

[ofspring]

Now thats the way I like it TITN GREEEEEEN....

[ofspring]

Wow the markets got slaughtered today and TITN just kept moving up... Looking at the quarter one of the shops is closing is in Rosemont MN... I drive by there all the time that shop was not busy at all... If TITN keeps making cuts like that and expanding other farm shops like vern anderson in sioux cty ia and lemars and kingsley Ia and worthington mn TITN will get stronger and leaner..Smart moves Imo I think $30s in the future with some upgrades... With high short position this ran today with a nice squeeze.... Farmers are out in full force with spring planting... Looks like good year for TITN....

[ofspring]

TITN should be at $19.00 BOOK VALUE $19.49

[ofspring]

Earnings out TITN....

[ofspring]

TITN BV iis at $19.49 anyone think we are undervalued????
http://wallstreetlivechat.com/stockcharts/titn/

[ofspring]

http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=titn&submit=Short+Quote%99