The US Dollar Index ($USD)

[Pro-Life]

The death is coming w/outlawing ca$h... phunny how they cause the death of fiat. Ridiculous.

[NYBob]

After "Currency Wars" Comes "The Death Of fiat $currencies"
Sunday, 03 November 2013 01:16 Luis Martin

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/1802-after-qcurrency-warsq-comes-qthe-death-of-moneyq

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=93831595
God Bless

[Penny Roger$]

$USD weeeeeeeee

[deadjim]

Talk about being the underdog trade! NOBODY is bullish the dollar.. And by nobody, I mean maybe 3% of market analysts see what's coming. Perhaps it is true that only 10% of people in the markets make money. The DOLLAR getting squashed is the "crowd" trade. EVERYBODY argues and even laughs at the fact that the dollar is in a bullish trend, smart money has been buying for a year, and is going higher

I'll never understand people..

commodities, oil, metals, equities, all are going down into the tank and the dollar will be the strongest of it all.

[True Blue]

Dollar just got whacked!!

[upn8th]

$USD st chart. Just now coming off the top-line. upn.

[Ataglance2]

when it looks like the sky is falling.....
thats the time to buy the dollar....
what can save the dollar?
IMF is forcing a rise in interest rates..I predict by the end of summer ...no matter what the feds say.we will see at least .25 raise that will continue..within 2 years it would not surprize me to see interest rates at 20%..

[ITMS]

Forget Greece, Watch This Chart

This morning, the major stock market indexes are rallying higher. The move in the market looks to be broad based as every sector seems to be inflating higher. Many traders and investors are very concerned with the events taking place in Greece today. Greece is facing a 48 hour strike before the important austerity vote on Thursday. The protesting in Greece has turned violent and many traders are concerned that this violent action could escalate over the next two days. While all of these concerns are valid there seems to be only one thing that matters to the markets, the U.S. Dollar Index.

As traders we must simply understand that the major stock market indexes are trading inverse to the U.S. Dollar Index. This morning, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading lower and the major stock indexes are trading higher. The same type of action took place yesterday, the markets rallied and inflated higher as soon as the U.S. Dollar Index declined. Therefore, traders and investors must keep a close eye on the U.S. Dollar Index chart at all times. Should the U.S. Dollar Index rally higher off the morning lows the major stock indexes could deflate and trade lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is the only chart that really matters.

Oil, gold, gasoline, and silver are very sensitive to the U.S. Dollar Index at this time. Therefore, should the U.S. Dollar Index show some strength these commodities are likely to decline quickly. They have all been under pressure over the past couple of weeks when the U.S. Dollar Index has gained strength and should continue to be under pressure if the U.S. Dollar Index rallies further. On the flip side, if the U.S. Dollar Index continues to decline traders should look for strength in these commodities and the overall stock market indexes.



Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

[Ataglance2]

lol.......
translucent like a window....you get bored you look in the windows of Ihub rooms and see a nicely decorated room with a fairly good location,and wonder why nobody lives there..lol
This board should be given more attention since the dollar is the most important currency of all currencies...err.,for now...,The monetary elite are trying to create their own currency and if they are successful,they will become the most powerful entity man has ever know without heart ,soul ,or any kind of human compassion whatso ever.....hmmm does that sound familiar?
The all powerful biblical beast..........But you are right about this board,with the dollar index ,you can foresee almost all economic fundamentals and technicals of any currency or commodity..
but hey....if more were interested into the subject,I would add my two cents here regularly,topic discussions would also include opening the curtains of the IMF,which I found in my travels isnt hard to do ,because the IMF hides things in plain sight...they just bury information quickly under tons of useless info..so you actually need a gold sifting pan and time for find the golden nuggets of information they really dont want the publics attentions drawn to..with many hands the job would be easier...

[SherriT]

Maybe it is just because I have been working most of the weekend, but I don't get it I'm not usually this slow - LOL

[Ataglance2]

Im surprised you really care..lol
im going to rename you Sherri Translucent....

[SherriT]

I'm surprised this board doesn't catch more action from the Forex traders at least.....nice info!

[NYBob]

End the FED Atlanta: VIDEO -

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/74090

Great turnout! I made the Wanted for Treason sign -
(among others) -

http://freedomfighterradio.net/wearechangegeorgia/

Marine Speaks @ End The Fed - LA -

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/74089

A few people were recording this Marines speech,
he spoke for quite a while longer than what I was able
to capture as my camera died.

This will have to do, until the other folks post
their videos..

Bring back the link between gold and the dollar" (Financial Times Op Ed) -

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/74088

The events of September 2008 – the nationalisation of
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG;
the disappearance of the investment banking -
industry in the US;
and the Bush administration’s $700bn bailout -
to save what is left of Anglo-American capitalism –
demonstrate that the 37-year experiment with fiat money -
has failed catastrophically..
ex..

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ba673d22-b977-11dd-99dc-0000779fd18c.html

Bailouts Have Confirmed the Death of the Dollar System -

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/74074

I think Dr. Paul's message is starting to resonate.

"The Citigroup bailout and GM debacle has confirmed the death
of the post-1944 Bretton Woods Dollar System."

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11117

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33762194

God Bless

[NYBob]

The Dollar Does Matter -

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen082108.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen082208.html

http://www.gata.org/node/6519

God Bless America

[dr_praeses]

re: we're on quarters so we're not done till June 14.

sides that, been trading less, reading more. has been nice.

[frenchee]

Fearless forecast below...

http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[dr_praeses]

big day again today

[Ataglance2]

I have to think the IMF is starting to sell gold..
Only thing that makes sense.

[dr_praeses]

USD big past two days wonder if it even gets under $70

[dr_praeses]

w@gging a bottom on the USD$ between 60-70 maybe like 66?

[dr_praeses]

lol a bit

[frenchee]

you on a W@Gsabatical?

[dr_praeses]

maybe today was a bit of a bottom, and it comes in a bit now???let's see...

[Ataglance2]

I have plenty more where that came from...
appreciate your interest in the dollar index board...
If your looking for something on the dollar subject just post..
If you find something of interest Please post..
we are interest in anything that has to do with the dollar..
Thanks.

[frenchee]

Thanks for the useful link Ataglance2.

[Ataglance2]

US Dollar Index Trend Spotter...

http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=DXY0&code=BFXCLB

[dr_praeses]

$USD ~ Ted Burge chart, fwiw

[frenchee]

Here's your short with a daily close > 5-day EMA & < 21-day MA...

[dr_praeses]

just based on technicals, I'm guessing the dollar comes back up a little tomorrow; maybe commodity prices ease for the day; we'll see. just a hunch...

[jrbscrazy]

U.S. Dollars No Longer Accepted at Indian Tourist Sites

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,319807,00.html



NEW DELHI — No dollars, just rupees please.

In a sign of how the once mighty U.S. dollar has fallen, India's tourism minister said Thursday that U.S. dollars will no longer be accepted at the country's heritage tourist sites, like the famed Taj Mahal.

For years the dollar was worth about 50 rupees and tourists visiting most sites in India were charged either $5 or 250 rupees.

But with the dollar at a nine-year low against the rupee — falling 11 percent in 2007 alone and now hovering at around 39 rupees — that deal has become a losing proposition for the tourism industry.

The country's tourism minister said, though, that the decision was only in part a reaction to the currency's plunging value.

"Before the dollar lost its value, there was a demand to have (admission tickets) just in rupees," Tourism Minister Ambika Soni told the CNN-IBN news channel.

Soni said that charging only rupees would not only be more practical, but would save money because "the dollar was weaker against the rupee."

The Taj Mahal, India's famed white marble monument to love, which had charged tourists $15 or 750 rupees, has been refusing to accept dollars since November.

The move makes visits pricier for American tourists, who now have to shell out nearly $20.

And it's likely to get worse.

"We expect a slight appreciation of the rupee to continue, although it won't be as dramatic as last year," said Agam Gupta, head of foreign exchange trading at Standard Chartered Bank in India.

The dollar has fallen against most major currencies, and it has lost ground against the rupee due to an influx of foreign capital into India, said Gupta.

Soni said she was not worried about the decision affecting tourism numbers as India provided more than just budget attractions.

"I always say it's not numbers I am looking for or working for. I am working for tourists to have a complete experience," she said.

[Ataglance2]

Dollar fear sparks rush to oil and gold
By Javier Blas in London and Michael Mackenzie in New York

Published: January 2 2008 19:00 | Last updated: January 3 2008 00:37

Crude oil prices briefly hit the $100-a-barrel mark and gold prices jumped to an all-time high as investors poured money into commodities on Wednesday amid deepening fears about the weakness of the US dollar.

The oil price rally soured the first stock trading day of the year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 1.7 per cent lower, its worst start since a slide of 1.9 per cent on the first day of trading in 1983.


The $100-a-barrel level was reached as the result of a single trade by two independent traders – known as locals – at the Nymex floor, industry sources said.

Before the trade, oil prices were at $99.53 a barrel. In spite of the controversy about the single trade, crude oil closed up $3.64 at $99.62 a barrel in New York. The White House said President George W. Bush would not tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and was focused on other ways to boost US oil supplies.

The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing index for December fell to 47.7, its lowest level since April 2003 and well below 50.8 in November. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity and has historically served as a harbinger of recession.

TJ Marta, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said: “A further decline in the overall index below 45 would be consistent with the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001.”

Minutes from the Fed’s meeting in December, released Wednesday, revealed that policymakers “agreed on the need to remain exceptionally alert to economic and financial developments and their effects on the outlook”. The minutes said “members would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy if prospects for economic growth or inflation were to worsen”.

Investors sought the safety of government bonds, sending the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury down to 2.88 per cent from 3.02 per cent. Interest rate futures fully priced in a quarter-percentage point rate cut to 4.0 per cent by the Fed by the end of this month.

The dollar fell to $1.4750 against the euro. Sterling also took a battering after weaker than expected purchasing managers’ data suggested the UK economy may also be facing a more severe slowdown than thought. The pound fell 1.3 per cent against the euro to a record low at £0.7447 and by 0.3 per cent against the dollar to $1.9791.

Gold was boosted by political tensions in Pakistan and the search by investors for hedges against inflation and further dollar weakness. Spot bullion prices in London hit a record $861.10 an ounce, above the previous peak of $850 an ounce reached in January 1980.

“People seem scared from a number of factors – an inflation spike, further US dollar weakness or systemic financial risk,” said John Reade, precious metals strategist at UBS in London.

Crude oil prices were also boosted by renewed tension in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, and news that Chinese refineries are running at record levels to offset a gasoline shortage.

The US data also put pressure on stocks in Europe, with the FTSE 100 off 0.5 per cent and the FTSEurofirst index falling 1.2 per cent.

[dr_praeses]

notice the yen getting pretty cheap here...Was looking at the $YUK...ISE Yen FX...tanking off pretty good here...

[Ataglance2]

Commodities Rise, Led by Energy, Gold on Dollar Slump (Update2)

By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Enlarge Image/Details

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil reached $100 a barrel and gold soared to a record, leading a surge in commodities as the dollar's slump against major currencies enhanced the appeal of raw materials as hedges against inflation.

Spot gold climbed to $860.10 an ounce, and wheat and soybeans jumped more than 3 percent. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index gained as much as 2.2 percent today after climbing 22 percent in 2007. The dollar fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in an attempt to bolster the U.S. economy.

``The most salient buzzword in 2008 is going to be inflation,'' said Michael Pento, senior market strategist for Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Hungtington Beach, California, which manages about $1.4 billion. ``The Fed is lowering interest rates and vastly increasing the money supply. They're further fueling inflationary expectations.''

Crude-oil futures for February delivery rose $3.228, or 3.4 percent, to $99.20 a barrel at 12:31 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The previous record was $99.29 on Nov. 21.

Gold for immediate delivery surged $25.05, or 3 percent, to $858.75 an ounce after reaching a record $860.10. Gold futures for February delivery rose $24, or 2.9 percent, to $862 an ounce on the Comex division of the Nymex. The metal earlier reached $864.90, the highest for a most-active contract since Jan. 21, 1980, the day futures reached a record $873.

Nigerian Oil Output

Crude oil rose on concern that violence may further cut output in Nigeria, Africa's biggest producer, and on speculation U.S. petroleum inventories fell for a seventh week. Gold gained as rising energy costs boosted the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

Natural-gas and heating-oil prices also climbed, and platinum jumped to a record. The dollar fell as much as 1 percent against a basket of six major currencies after the index tumbled 8.3 percent in 2007.

The Fed reduced the overnight lending rate three times since Sept. 18 from 5.25 percent to 4.25 percent on concern a housing slump will lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI has climbed for the past six years. It was up 26.27, or 2.1 percent, to 1,303.15 today. A close at that price would mark a record.

The rate cut sparked inflation concerns. Some investors buy commodities to hedge against rising consumer prices, and the falling dollar makes raw materials priced in the U.S. currency cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

Declining Dollar

``Anything priced in dollars has to move higher to make up for the declining dollar,'' said Ron Goodis, futures trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``It looks like lower interest rates as far as the eye can see. People are putting their money where their memory is, and that's in commodities'' after the rally last year, he said.

Rising wealth from Shanghai to Sao Paulo is leading to better diets and straining grain supplies just as record energy prices boost sales of biofuels. Wheat and soybean prices jumped almost 80 percent last year, and corn last month climbed to the highest in 11 years.

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 37.5 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $12.5175 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price earlier reached $12.64, the highest since June 1973.

U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in 12 years to sow the most corn since 1944. China imposed an export tax on grains to ensure domestic supplies and curb increases in food prices.

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 30 cents, the most allowed by the CBOT, or 3.4 percent, to $9.15 a bushel. The price reached a record $10.095 a bushel on Dec. 17 as global demand outpaced dwindling worldwide inventories.

Drought hurt crops in Canada and Australia and excessive rain curbed yields in the U.S.

[Ataglance2]

The US dollar continued to weaken after news that the help wanted index dropped from 22 to 21 in the month of November and new homes sales fell to 12 year lows. Any hope for a housing market recovery has been eradicated by today’s release as the steep decline points to the lack of buyers. Prospective homeowners are holding out until they see a bottom which is certainly not healthy for a market that desperately needs buyers. Interestingly enough, the median price of a new home actually rose $10,000 while inventories dropped. Still, the data suggests that the housing downturn is not over. On Monday, we are expecting existing home sales which should reconfirm the overall vulnerability of that sector. Chicago PMI was also released today and even though the index bucked the trend of other manufacturing reports by jumping from 52.9 to 56.6, the dollar failed to budge in the minutes following the release as traders held off for the new home sales report. In the week ahead, bond markets have an early close on Monday and all financial markets are closed on Tuesday. However this does not mean that it will be a week without volatility. It would actually be very surprising if that became the case because we have a lot of important US data due for release including existing home sales, manufacturing and service sector ISM and non-farm payrolls. Conditions in the labor market are expected to deteriorate because of a rise in jobless claims and a drop in the employment component of the Chicago PMI and Philly Fed indexes.

[Ataglance2]

Dollar Posts Biggest Decline Versus Euro Since 2006 on Housing

By Min Zeng

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted its biggest weekly drop against the euro since April 2006 as a slumping housing market and upheaval in Pakistan made U.S. financial assets less attractive to international investors.

The U.S. currency fell against all 16 most-actively traded currencies except Mexico's peso this week as traders raised bets that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in January. The dollar has lost 10.4 percent against the euro and 5.7 percent versus the yen in 2007, and the European currency is up 5.2 percent versus the yen, its eighth annual increase.

``The dollar is like a sore thumb getting hit by a hammer,'' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com, a unit of the online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. ``U.S. housing data shows no signs of any bottom in sight.''

The U.S. currency fell 2.4 percent this week to $1.4723 per euro, 1.5 percent to 112.28 yen and 2.5 percent to 1.1263 Swiss francs. The dollar touched $1.4728 per euro, 112.28 yen and 1.1259 Swiss francs, the lowest levels since mid-December.

Sweden's krona and Norway's krone led gains against the dollar this week, rising more than 2.8 percent. The Australian currency advanced 0.5 percent, the pound strengthened about 1 percent and the New Zealand currency increased 1 percent.

The U.S. currency weakened yesterday after the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes in the U.S. fell to a 12-year low last month. Purchases dropped 9 percent to an annual rate of 647,000, and October sales were revised down to a 711,000 pace.

Home Prices

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas decreased 6.1 percent in October, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed Dec. 26. The decrease was the biggest since the group started keeping year-over-year records in 2001.

Investors also sold the dollar after former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto died of injuries sustained in a Dec. 27 attack on an election rally in Pakistan. She was buried yesterday in her ancestral village, and troops were deployed to quell riots in several cities. The government said al-Qaeda may be behind Bhutto's killing and ordered a judicial inquiry.

``The combination of soft U.S. data and geopolitical risks led to dollar weakness,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist in New York at Westpac Banking Corp. ``Data from the U.S. continued to show weakness.''

The pound fell to a record low of 73.89 pence per euro yesterday after a U.K. report showing falling house prices increased speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.5 percent. The pound lost 1.8 percent against the euro this week, the most since September.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss franc increased against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies this week, and the yen rose against the dollar, pound and currencies in Brazil, New Zealand and Australia on speculation the upheaval in Pakistan will lead to a reduction of carry trades funded in Switzerland and Japan.

In a carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates and convert the proceeds into currencies they can lend out for a higher return. They earn the spread between the borrowing and lending rates, incurring the risk that currency fluctuations may erase their profits.

Japan's benchmark lending rate is 0.5 percent and Switzerland's is 2.75 percent, the lowest among major economies.

``The Swiss franc is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, and geopolitical risks pushed people to cut carry trades,'' said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy in New York at Wells Fargo & Co.

For the year, the dollar has declined against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies as the Fed cut the target rate for overnight lending between banks three times to 4.25 percent.

Payroll Report

A Labor Department report on Jan. 4 will show U.S. employers added 70,000 jobs this month, down from 94,000 in November, according to the median forecast of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.8 percent in December from 4.7 percent.

Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday indicated 94 percent odds that the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate a quarter-percentage point at its Jan. 30 meeting, compared with a 76 percent chance a day earlier and 80 percent a week ago.

``In the near term, the dollar probably remains on the weak side,'' said Doug Smith, chief Americas economist in New York at Standard Chartered Bank.

The dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to 63.8 percent last quarter, the lowest level since records began in 1999, as international demand for U.S. assets slumped after the subprime-mortgage market collapsed, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday in Washington.

The U.S. currency will rebound to $1.39 per euro by the end of 2008, according to the median forecast of 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The yen will trade at 110 per dollar, according to the survey.

[Worn_Buffet]

"The currency will gain 3.4 percent to $1.40 per euro, according to the median estimate of 42 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The dollar is down 8.9 percent this year to $1.4497 per euro after weakening 10 percent in 2006."

Sounds logical to me...retracing back & erasing a lil less than 1/2 of its' losses on the yr....I'll buy that.

& Dr. S.....neutral works as well.....well see how low it goes after this Bhutto event.....baring no further events such as this (which is impossible to forecast of course) it could prove to the bottom we've been looking for. Give it a week or so to all shakeout & who knows, maybe by then the greenback will be a decent long trade moving into '08.

Here's hopin.

Cheers!!

[Ataglance2]

Dollar Strategists Forecast End of Bear Market, 3% Gain in 2008

By Stanley White and Ron Harui

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is poised to end a two- year slide against the euro in 2008 as government-backed funds in Asia and the Middle East purchase U.S. assets, currency strategists say.

The currency will gain 3.4 percent to $1.40 per euro, according to the median estimate of 42 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The dollar is down 8.9 percent this year to $1.4497 per euro after weakening 10 percent in 2006.

Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos., based in New York, sold $20 billion in stakes to bolster capital eroded by credit-market losses. International purchases of U.S. financial assets totaled $114 billion in October, the Treasury Department said Dec. 17, the fastest pace in five months.

``Sovereign wealth funds are getting cheap deals by buying some of these bombed-out assets,'' said Gerry Celaya, chief strategist at Aberdeen, Scotland-based research company Redtower Ltd., whose $1.23 per euro forecast is the most bullish. ``The U.S. economy is resilient and good at clearing out all the dead wood and bouncing back, and the dollar will follow.''

The dollar depreciated this year as the worst U.S. housing slump since 1991 triggered $80 billion in writedowns at finance companies and forced the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Japan's yen will rally for a second year against the dollar and end eight years of losses against the euro as U.S. and European economies slow, the strategists predicted in the survey.

Yen Rally

The yen rose 4.4 percent against the dollar in 2007 to 114.06 and fell 4.9 percent against the euro. As recently as July it was down 7.6 percent against the euro. The median estimate of 41 economists is for the yen to rise 3.6 percent to 110 versus the dollar and 8.1 percent to 152 per euro.

Merrill Lynch, reeling from the biggest loss in its 93-year history, received a $5 billion investment from Singapore's state-owned Temasek Holdings Pte this week. China Investment Corp., set up to manage the country's $1.46 trillion of currency reserves, last week purchased a $5 billion stake in Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm. Citigroup said Nov. 27 that Abu Dhabi Investment Authority invested $7.5 billion in the biggest U.S. bank by assets.

``Asia and the Middle East know they need to lend some support to the dollar or they're all going to lose out,'' said Tony Morriss, a strategist in Sydney at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., the second most-accurate dollar forecaster in Bloomberg surveys in the third quarter. He forecasts $1.39 per euro next year.

Current Account

A depreciating dollar boosted U.S. exports to a record in October. The shortfall in the current account, the broadest measure of trade, narrowed to $178.5 billion in the third quarter, the least in two years.

``I can't be too bearish on the dollar,'' said Richard Grace, a senior currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation's second-largest bank and the most accurate currency forecaster in the second quarter. ``The current account deficit should continue to improve.''

Commonwealth Bank forecasts the dollar at $1.32 per euro at the end of 2008.

Rising exports won't prevent the U.S. economy from slowing to a 1.9 percent growth rate in 2008, lower than the 2.1 percent in Europe and 4.8 percent globally, the International Monetary Fund in Washington said.

Interest Rates

Two-year Treasuries yield 73 basis points less than similar-maturity German bunds as traders bet the Fed will cut its 4.25 percent benchmark rate to below the European Central Bank's 4 percent rate.

``The U.S. has been in a six-year downtrend and that's not going to turn around,'' said Greg Gibbs, a strategist in Sydney at ABN Amro Holding NV, the largest Dutch bank, which has the most bearish forecast at $1.53 per euro. ``The U.S. will find it difficult to attract capital.''

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, both recommended selling dollars in the past three months. Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said in a Dec. 19 interview the dollar may stop falling against the pound.

The pound closed the year up 1.3 percent against the dollar, after rising as much as 8 percent, after house prices slumped. The U.K. currency will drop 1.7 percent to $1.95 in 2008, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Erasing Gains

The yen may extend gains as traders reduce carry trades, where they obtain funds in a country with low borrowing costs and seek higher returns. The risk is currency fluctuations may erase profits.

Volatility implied by dollar-yen options expiring in one month rose to 23.5 percent on Aug. 17, the highest since January 1999 and above this year's average of 8.9 percent. Traders quote implied volatility when pricing options.

``There's little appetite for carry trades,'' said Geoffrey Yu, a strategist in Zurich at UBS AG, the second-largest currency trader. The yen may rise to 110 per dollar, he said.

[dr_praeses]

Hey Worny

I'm pretty much dollar neutral. I do not, however, think that gold has or will replace it as a currency barometer.

Unless Ron Paul, by some grace of god, wins the presidency.

lol

[dr_praeses]

Merry Christmas!

[Worn_Buffet]

Well w/the exception of the last few days....this board was all but dead...here's hopn we can bring it back to life.

Having said that....here's a topic to chew on.....what say you Dr. Sean w/re to the dollar being BMOC as opposed to gold?

AtaGlance.....I of ocurse already know your comments on the matter ;)~

As for me Dr. Sean...I lean towards the belief that gold has replaced the dollar as the new currency barometer....& actually, I don't think it's all that new. IMO it's been that way for quite sometime now...it's just that our "wonderful" domestic government body of econ "know-it-all's" refuse to admit it....after all, if they did they'd be admitting a failure of sorts.

& as for my dollar call going into 08....tho I do think (& of course hope) the bottom is w/in sight, (we may not be quite there yet) BUT by the same token I don't think it'll be rebounding anytime soon...at least back to the levels from where it began its' freefall...that much is obvious imo. Far too much uncertainty in US all around w/many topics....subprime is still somewhat of an unknown of course (tho we are making headway as far as being able to gauge just how bad it will truly be) amongst a few other lil bug-a-boo's....such as the uncertainty of the election in Nov being one...& if the dems get into office (which is lookin like a fair call @ this time....still a ways to go however) then who knows what troubles may or may not lay ahead for the U.S.?

So I suppose you can label me a dollar bear for the time being....but reserve the right to change my tune should we see a true bottom form w/an honest to goodness trend reversal....& for said reversal to occur it'll take at least 2-3 months to truly know for sure....& even at that it could still run into some trobule as the election in Nov draws near.

Bottom line, all (or much of) the uncertainty in the U.S. needs to be resolved 1 way or another that's fo'sho in order for the greenback to have any shot at all in making a decent attack on previous highs.

In closing, here's to a lively'er greenback board in 08 & the dollar recovering from its' latest illness.

Cheers & a very healthy, happy & of course prosperous '08 to all.

WB

[Ataglance2]

WORLD-SIGNALS.COM EXPECT STABLE DOLLAR IN THE COMING WEEKS
Dec 23 2007 02:12 pm

Forex Forecasts and Commentaries

Optimism for the world biggest economy keeps the dollar stable at the end of the year. Just a day before the holiday the traders prefer to close their short EURUSD positions, but the tendency for new dollar recovery after the holiday remains. The dollar will test the levels below 1.40 to the end of 2007 or at the beginning of 2008. The U.S. economy is in good condition and after the holiday will send positive fundamental signals. In World-Signals.com the tendency is for positive news for the U.S. economy and continue recovery of the dollar. We expect test of 1.40 in very short time probably the end of the year before.

[Ataglance2]

US Dollar Bear 5

Adam Hamilton May 11, 2007 3273 Words

With the headline US stock indexes doing so well this year, they are understandably absorbing trader attention and news coverage like a black hole. It is always exciting to see major new round numbers achieved and new highs carved. But other markets outside of this limelight are not frozen in stasis.

In particular the US dollar, seemingly totally forgotten in the dark shadow the stock markets are casting, has been exceedingly interesting. While you wouldn’t know it from the mainstream financial media thanks to very little commentary on it, the US dollar’s secular bear market is very much alive and well. In fact today it is on the verge of testing major major new lows.

If the dollar indeed continues on its stealthy downward trajectory and hits these new lows, the implications will probably be profound. Especially for American investors and speculators, the dollar is the linchpin of everything financial. When foreign investors see new dollar lows, will the massive inflows of capital they pump into our financial markets waver? What would this mean for US stocks, bonds, and interest rates?

As always in financial-market analysis, perspective is everything. In order to really understand just how critical the US dollar’s technical position is today, it is best to start with a tactical view and then zoom out to the little-considered strategic view. The precarious levels at which the dollar trades today are remarkable to ponder in historical context.

The most popular way to track the dollar’s fortunes is via the NYBOT-traded US Dollar Index, or USDX. It has been around since the early 1970s and measures the US dollar against a trade-weighted basket of major world currencies. Today the USDX is dominated by the euro, with a 58% weight. The Japanese yen weighs in at 14%, the British pound 12%, the Canadian dollar 9%, and then the Swedish krona and Swiss franc round out this geometrically-averaged index.

The actual USDX number shows where the US dollar is trading today relative to a March 1973 indexed base value of 100. Thus if this index is above 100, then the dollar is relatively more valuable today than it was in 1973 compared to these major currencies. If it is below 100, then the dollar is relatively less valuable. Today it is challenging 80, a hyper-critical number I’ll discuss later.

In addition to the USDX and its assorted technicals, the charts in this essay also include the relative dollar. Based on my Relativity trading theory, the rDollar is computed by dividing the USDX by its own 200dma. The daily result is then graphed over time and it effectively condenses the dollar’s behavior relative to its 200dma into a horizontal constant-percentage band. Eventually the rDollar forms a trading range within this band, granting traders excellent insight into high-probability-for-success long and short points.

http://www.zealllc.com/2007/usdbear5.htm

[help me]

Just wanted to say hello.

Merry Christmas

help_me

[Ataglance2]

GM....
I added the forum to the website.
http://www.theforexclub.us/
http://www.theforexclub.com/

[dr_praeses]

The Greenback coming back in here some...

[dr_praeses]

US Dollar Index Approaching Resistance

from Bespoke Investment Group

The US Dollar has made a nice move higher in the month of August as shown below. Over the past three and a half years, the currency index has traded in a range from 80 to 92. Since peaking at the end of '05, the US Dollar has been in a nasty downtrend, making a bottom in late July at just over 80. The green line below shows the top of the downtrend. Currency technicians will surely be looking for a break of this downtrend line to signal that the worst might be over for the greenback. For a list of currency ETFs, click here.

[dr_praeses]

USD rollin solid

wish it would tank and let equity markets come back

[dr_praeses]

tanks.

[Ataglance2]

INDEX INTELLIGENCE: EUI—Dollar Rally Pulls Up the USD/Euro Index
By Frederic Ruffy, Optionetics.com
Published: June 13, 2007 6:15 PM EST

The recent rise in US rates has helped the dollar. On Wednesday, the greenback rose to 5-year highs against the Japanese yen. After a long slump, the buck is also performing better against the euro. If the trend continues, it might offer some profit opportunities in the form of bullish strategies on the dollar. You don’t have n foreign exchange account? Don’t worry. There is another way to play the euro/dollar currency pair via a relatively new index that trades on the International Securities Exchange (ISE).

http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article.asp?id=17459

[dr_praeses]

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