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Wow...thanks for the link. I have considered the increase need for resource, but I had no idea of the absolute scale. When you consider the world requirements going forward it's astounding....again thank you!
From the same article:
Training OpenAI’s GPT-4 required an estimated 21 billion petaFLOP (a petaFLOP is 10^15 floating point operations). For comparison, an iPhone 12 is capable of roughly 11 trillion floating point operations per second (0.01 petaFLOP per second), which means that if you were able to somehow train GPT-4 on an iPhone 12, it would take you more than 60,000 years to finish.
On a 100 Mhz Pentium processor from 1997, capable of a mere 9.2 million floating-point operations per second, training would theoretically take more than 66 billion years.
Interesting article about the challenges of building AI data centers.
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-an-ai-data-center
Welcome back Oakes!!!!!!! Your knowledge in so many areas is incredible, albeit above my pay scale, and I love your humor. I totally enjoy your posts.
I don't know where you live, but have you seen any EVs in your city driving around with "Impossible Burger" signs on top delivering Impossible Burgers to homes like Domino's Pizza does with gas powered cars?
I think I understand enough of that content to be reassured as a CLF long. Thanks for such an informative post!
i dont see how electrolytic refining of iron and processing into Fe plates (not clear to me if they are actually making steel) is cheaper than conventional processes. I agree that it looks like smelting would still be required. I suspect that it could be possible to create steel sheets, by growing from an aqueous solution, that had similar properties to steel produced via conventional methods, but i'd bet the cost difference would be huge. I dont think that cost difference would ever go away. Any process involving water will require very large quantities of water, acids, bases, and recycling. When all of the associated energy and CO2 production costs are added up, I'd bet that such Green processes are actually Blacker than an old Pittsburg blast furnace.
Since cost is often a good proxy for energy efficiency, i doubt that the processes in the WSJ article are actually "green". For example, the article mentions that the Boston Metal process involves heating iron solutions to 3000 F while electrolytically reducing the dissolved iron to metallic iron. My intuitive reaction, based on some experience with heating aqueous solutions to 1500 F, is that it is an absolutely nutty idea for a commercial process. Aside from the energy required to heat large quantities of water to 3000 F, aqueous solutions at 3000 F tend to be hard on equipment lifespans. Whatever is reducing the iron in that case is oxidizing something else. I'd like to know what that something else is.
Somewhat as an aside, an aqueous solution at 3000 F has no resemblance to hot liquid water containing dissolved salt that people might casually envision when reading the article. Some people might be inclined to point to the critical point of pure water but if the process started with dissolved iron, then the system is compositionally far removed from pure water and the critical point of water is only peripherally relevant. I would be very surprised if there were only 1 or 2 fluid phases in addition to the liquid iron in such a system. Turbulence due to temperature gradients could be extreme and might cause process/handling problems. In addition, those different fluid phases would contain finite quantities of dissolved stuff and those dissolved things tend to poop out, either as yet additional fluids or solids, as soon as they hit a lower pressure and temperature. Again, very non-trivial process problems that cause me to think such ideas are commercially nutty and uneconomic.
The only advantage i see is the ability to process lower grade iron ore. I suppose that might make the process economically viable in some niche markets.
Nucor's PR doesn't say which car parts the Econiq-RE will go into.
CHARLOTTE, N.C.,
March 20, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- Today, Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) announced that it has signed an agreement with Mercedes-Benz to supply Econiq™-RE for Mercedes-Benz models produced at their Tuscaloosa, AL manufacturing plant.
Since its inception in 2022, Econiq™ has led the global steel industry in certifying low-embodied carbon materials. By using Econiq™-RE, an evolutionary category of Econiq™ that certifies Nucor steel or steel products made with 100% renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to less than half that of extractive blast furnace-based steel production (Scopes 1, 2 & 3).
"Nucor is grateful for the opportunity to partner with Mercedes-Benz as a strategic supplier of lower-embodied carbon steel, which will reduce carbon emissions throughout their supply chain," said Dan Needham, EVP of Commercial. "Our Econiq™ brand is helping steel end-users meet their growth and sustainability goals, and we are proud that it is going to be a key piece of Mercedes-Benz's path towards a net carbon-neutral new car fleet along the entire value chain."
In 2023, Nucor announced Net-Zero science-based greenhouse gas (GHG) targets for 2050 and used an average of nearly 80 percent recycled scrap through the company's circular production process. Nucor is also the largest recycler in the Western Hemisphere. With its continued investment in breakthrough technologies to lower emissions across the supply chain, Nucor is committed to reshaping the industry by not only making steel more sustainably but enabling partners to reach their own carbon reduction goals.
Why would you say that?
run though an EAF. If true, this would render the resulting steel unusable for high-end applications such as those in the automotive industry.
ABT launches over-the-counter CGMs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbott-receives-u-fda-clearance-120000542.html
• Abbott's consumer biowearable, Lingo, is designed for general consumers who are looking to improve their overall health and wellness
• Libre Rio is designed for adults with Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin and typically manage their diabetes through lifestyle modifications
• Both products are based on FreeStyle Libre sensing technology, the world's most widely used1 continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, pioneered by Abbott and used by about 6 million people globally
Re: Green steel
From the article you posted, it sounds as though the iron plates produced by Electra (and other “green steel” startups) must be run though an EAF. If true, this would render the resulting steel unusable for high-end applications such as those in the automotive industry.
Comments?
More on JNJ’s talc liability; from my prior post:
The [ovarian cancer] settlement excludes mesothelioma plaintiffs, but 95% of these have cases have already been resolved.
Everyone will be trying to compete with BYD on a worldwide basis, with little success outside the US and EU.
Lexus Rz is bloated, overpriced and low range relative to competition like Hyundai Genesis. TM needs to have dedicated EV skateboard platform and not jerry-rigged from ICE/HEV.
It looks like the dealers are doing anything to get these cars off the lots. My neighbor just leased a Lexus EV and Lexus has cut the lease payments by $500 a month to $450 monthly for a $65k auto.
They are also offering a combustion auto will be available for 30 days per year for use.
Too bad the Shark isn't available in the US market. BYD wins again. Great marketing piece....
DoD - project Maven. Haven't heard much since PLTR took over the project from GOOG. $480M 5 yr contract awarded yesterday.
GOOGL’s latest AI flubs (ICYMI):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/googles-generative-ai-fails-will-slowly-erode-our-trust-in-google-202314852.html
It was a busy Memorial Day weekend for Google as the company raced to contain the fallout from a number of wild suggestions by the new AI Overview feature in its Search platform. In case you were sunning yourself on a beach or downing hotdogs and beer instead of scrolling through Instagram and X, let me get you up to speed.
AI Overview is supposed to provide generative AI-based responses to search queries. Normally, it does that. But over the last week it’s also told users they can use nontoxic glue to keep cheese from sliding off their pizza, that they can eat one rock a day [to get the daily requirement of minerals], and claimed Barack Obama was the first Muslim president.
ZBH’s new real-estate venture:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zimmer-biomet-outlines-strategy-deliver-210200055.html
Zimmer Biomet also announced today that it has formalized a partnership with CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE: CBRE), the world's largest commercial real estate services and investment firm, to develop and outfit orthopedic ambulatory surgery centers (ASC) in the U.S. This strategic alliance will leverage the companies' respective core strengths as leaders in healthcare technology and commercial real estate services to deliver the latest in medical technology to more patients across the country. The partnership offers a comprehensive, turnkey solution to surgeons and institutions looking to expand their orthopedic ASC footprint.
Addendum—Once upon a time—(~15-20 yrs ago)—medical devices were a hot growth area. Now the sector is growing at barely more than the rate of US price inflation.
ZBH issues 2024-2027 guidance:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zimmer-biomet-outlines-strategy-deliver-210200055.html
• Mid-single-digit percentage constant currency-consolidated [i.e. excluding FX] of revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
• Adjusted [non-GAAP] earnings per share (EPS) growth at least 1.5 times revenue growth [i.e. 6-9%]
• Free Cash Flow growing at least 100 basis points faster than adjusted EPS
• Returning 65% of free cash flow to investors through dividends and buybacks
That's consistent with one of the opinions I got on the other message board.
Eff XOM - They can pay the law firms and pound sand.
CVX/HES addendum—I asked the same question on another message board devoted to the oil/gas sector and got widely disparate answers.
More_oil-patch_consolidation—COP acquires MRO for $17.1B in_stock:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/conocophillips-to-acquire-marathon-oil-in-22-5b-all-stock-deal-743cc8ba
Under the terms of the agreement, Marathon Oil stockholders will exchange each share for 0.255 shares of ConocoPhillips, representing a nearly 15% premium based on Marathon Oil’s closing share price on Tuesday.
BYD knocking it out of the park
Questions for the board—Will CVX eventually have to pay XOM a cash settlement to induce XOM to allow CVX to close the HES acquisition? If yes, what is your estimate of the size of the payment?
HES shareholders approve CVX merger:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/hess-shareholders-greenlight-53-billion-merger-with-chevron-e82fd222
A yes vote by a majority of all shares outstanding (including abstained and non-voted shares) was required for approval.
CLF seeking_to acquire US assets_of Novolipetsk Steel, according_to_sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-talks-buy-us-135133649.html
Dew
Like most scientists, I wouldn't risk my reputation rendering opinions on an emerging technology that has a long way to go to demonstrate field viability. I did not read the entire article but one thing that would concern me besides maintenance costs is that the 2nd step requires treatment using electrodes. This may look good in a lab where the electrode placement and geology are probably simplified (uniform sands or such). This might suggest that the process can be implemented in-situ.. In most settings the geology is more complex such that the 2nd step (and probably the 1st step as well) are better implemented ex-situ rather than in place. So groundwater would have to be treated by pumping it to a treatment cell where the two treatment steps would be conducted. Depending on how prolific an aquifer is, the scale up to handle a large volume of water can get expensive. Also, typically for most chemicals I've dealt with the treatment effort might have to exchange 50 to 100 times the calculated volume of contaminated pore water. This is necessary because contaminants are sorbed onto the aquifer matrix and then desorb and diffuse out of pores as the concentration gradients are reduced by the remedial action.. In the case of PFAS and PFOS I'm not sure whether this volume of treated would be greater or less. I don't recall having seen a lot of data on the Koc and Kow partitioning coefficients that might provide an Idea as to how difficult it will be to desorb PFAS/PFOS contaminants (i.e., how long a remedial effort would need to run). To be frank, I'm entering retirement and have not looked for this info. My best guess is that it will be 5 to 10 years before such pilot technologies are being proved at any scale.
This class of chemicals will have a very low maximum contaminant level (MCL) so typically more effort is required to achieve the standard. A good point of use treatment system that is small enough to fit under the sink and be maintained by the average home owner would be a huge seller. I'm sure 3M and others are working to develop such systems for water treatment plants.
Sorry about the lengthy discussions but I wanted to hit on some of the variables that will play a role in this evaluation. As I think I said before, the tendency in the business is to underestimate the time to achieve remediation goals and to underestimate final costs.
FL
So additional maintenance and associated costs will likely be incurred.
>>> Scientists create earthquake-proof resin that seals rocks, heals cracks
Interesting Engineering
by Aman Tripathi
4-22-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/scientists-create-earthquake-proof-resin-that-seals-rocks-heals-cracks/ar-BB1mQBSz?OCID=ansmsnnews11
Researchers from Nagoya University have developed a revolutionary resin-based material that has demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in sealing cracks in rocks, even in the face of seismic activity.
This groundbreaking innovation, inspired by the natural fossilization process, holds the potential to transform various industries, from nuclear waste management to infrastructure maintenance.
Their innovation, a “concretion-forming resin,” not only seals cracks and fractures in rock but also demonstrates an unprecedented ability to self-heal after seismic events.
Inspiration from nature’s fossilization process
The resin’s ability to self-heal is particularly noteworthy, as it can potentially extend the lifespan of sealed structures and reduce the need for costly maintenance and repairs.
“I realized that well-preserved fossils in concretions had withstood weathering and the like for tens to hundreds of thousands of years in the natural environment,” said Hidekazu Yoshida, the lead researcher.
“I became inspired by studying how fast concretions were formed and why the fossils inside were preserved so well.”
The resin’s remarkable properties stem from its emulation of the natural formation of calcite concretions around organic matter, a process that has preserved fossils for millennia.
By mixing two agents that trigger rapid calcite crystal formation upon contact with water, the resin effectively fills and seals voids in rock, creating an impenetrable barrier.
Rigorous earthquake strike testing
The resin’s efficacy was rigorously tested in an underground laboratory situated 350 meters beneath Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost island, a region renowned for its seismic activity.
Interestingly, the area experienced six earthquakes over two days during testing.
Notably, the resin maintained its seal throughout these events and exhibited a self-healing capability, resealing any cracks that formed due to the tremors.
This unparalleled resilience sets the concretion-forming resin apart from conventional cement-based sealants, which often fail to withstand such geological stresses.
“Such a fast-acting and sustained sealing effect of rock fractures, including post-earthquake crack repair, has never been reported before. Conventional cement materials cannot achieve this result,” added Yoshida.
The future of resin sealing
The implications of this innovation are far-reaching, extending beyond the safe disposal of hazardous waste and carbon dioxide.
The researchers are exploring the possibility of using the resin to seal cracks in concrete structures, which could significantly improve the durability and longevity of buildings and other infrastructure. It could be used to reinforce and stabilize tunnels and shafts in mines.
The resin will also prove invaluable in sealing abandoned oil wells, managing groundwater, and repairing aging infrastructure such as roads and buildings.
Additionally, the self-healing properties of the resin can be utilized to repair and protect ancient structures and artifacts from weathering and erosion.
To bring the resin to market, the research team is now collaborating with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Sekisui Chemical Co., and Chubu Electric Power Co., Ltd.
Concretions are found worldwide
Globally, remarkable fossils are often discovered encased within solid, spherical rocks known as concretions.
They are formed by the precipitation of mineral cement within the spaces between sediment particles. They are commonly found in sedimentary rocks or soil.
Earlier, Nagoya University researchers had discovered that concretions form rapidly, within months to years. The fast formation of concretions helps to quickly protect fossils.
<<<
---
The technology sounds viable for some circumstances but the injection of air (ie. Sparging) causes iron to precipitate resulting in clogging. So additional maintenance and associated costs will likely be incurred.
Regards
FL
CVX/HES—Spot check of large HES investors suggests narrow merger approval, according to Reuters:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hess-chevron-merger-vote-appears-183523839.html
HES’ shareholder vote is on 5/28/24.
Thanks, FL. Any comment on #msg-174469664?
Cleaning up PFAS (from today’s Boston Globe):
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/21/business/forever-chemicals-gradiant-woburn/
Amid a growing awareness that drinking water is contaminated with harmful “forever chemicals,” one local startup has a new solution. Woburn-based Gradiant, an MIT spinout focused on water purification technologies, says its new process not only filters out perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl chemicals, known as PFAS, but destroys the dangerous substances as well.
Dubbed “forever gone,” the 11-year-old company’s tech fits inside a shipping container that can be placed at municipal water utility facilities. The two-step process first injects billions of tiny bubbles into the water to separate out the PFAS. Then electrodes zap the harmful substances, breaking down the chemicals into inert substances.
… Currently, most municipalities use a filtration system to remove PFAS from water. The contaminants then need to be shipped to a hazardous waste landfill or incineration facility. Gradiant said its system removes the chemicals and destroys them all on-site, leading to cost savings of about 30 percent compared to filtering and shipping PFAS. [Gradiant's president] Alagappan said the technology is already in use by the US Air Force and several of the company’s industrial customers in the semiconductor sector.
LLMs - Meta head of AI research talks about GIGO shortcomings and need for different approach to AGI.
https://www.ft.com/content/23fab126-f1d3-4add-a457-207a25730ad9
Here we go....
China considering car tariffs to retaliate against US and EU moves, trade group says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3263567/china-considering-car-tariffs-retaliate-against-us-and-eu-moves-trade-group-says
America’s 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs: bad policy, worse leadership
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/15/americas-100-tariffs-on-chinese-evs-bad-policy-worse-leadership?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18200423674&ppcadID=149194366064&ppcgclID=CjwKCAjwr7ayBhAPEiwA6EIGxPQJN3w5Qk-FGvuKOJzzY8hCkTXOZaj6uMuV2Hng6hUMY-mbU2QuGRoCRfgQAvD_BwE&gad_source=1&gclsrc=ds
Stellantis CEO: electric vehicle tariffs are a trap
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-very-tough-battle-ahead-against-chinese-rivals-2024-05-22/
China will dominate the new energy worldwide market.
Unitree G1 I'm impressed....Elon, take note of your competition.
Very well done YouTube addressing the EV conundrum for the US and EU
The "rare" minerals are not rare at all. Processing is the bottleneck. Current processes are emissions heavy and only countries (china) with low environmental/safety restrictions and enforcement have the processing capacity.
Shortage of minerals for green energy
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-faces-a-shortage-of-minerals-needed-for-the-energy-transition/ar-BB1myJ7g
BYD
China's BYD just unleashed a hybrid pickup truck that has no rival in America — see the Shark
https://investorshub.advfn.com/The-Rising-Influence-of-Rising-Affluence-15427
BYD to introduce new second-generation 1000km battery technology
https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-to-introduce-new-second-gen-1000km-battery-technology/
Toyota plans using BYD’s plug-in hybrid DM-i platform to launch 3 PHEV models in 3 years in China
https://carnewschina.com/2024/05/09/toyota-plans-using-byds-plug-in-hybrid-dm-i-platform-to-launch-3-phev-models-in-3-years-in-china/
Fully integrated, BYD has no real competition across their entire product offering
DE never broke away from the Dow until 2020 and then it was on a rip. Lets see if can continue.
3M +4% to 12m high because they cut the dividend by 54%*. Part of the reason for the cut was the spinoff of SOLV, but most of the reason for the cut was to improve the balance sheet and be better able to afford the PFAS and earplug legal liabilities that have been settled.
*The new annualized payout is $2.80, down from $6.04. At the current share price ($104.86), the new annualized payout is a yield of 2.7%.
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence is a forum for investment ideas based on this premise.
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