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Big Lithium Short Gets ‘Dangerous’ on Lower Supply Outlook
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-lithium-short-gets-dangerous-180000239.html
Investor bets against Pilbara Minerals are hovering around record levels at about 22% of free float, equivalent to $1.8 billion, making it the most shorted stock on Australia’s benchmark equity index, S&P Global data shows
Biden is coming out in opposition to plans to sell US Steel to a Japanese company
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-is-coming-out-in-opposition-to-plans-to-sell-us-steel-to-a-japanese-company/ar-BB1jSsN6
The Democratic president has a big megaphone to weigh in on the matter, but he is not intervening in the review process or formally blocking the deal, according to a person familiar with deliberations who insisted on anonymity to discuss the situation.
Trump said earlier this year after meeting with the Teamsters union that he would stop the U.S. Steel acquisition: “I would block it. I think it’s a horrible thing, when Japan buys U.S. Steel. I would block it instantaneously."
This opinion piece is an interesting read. I'm half inclined to actually attempt a read of the chips act to see how much "meat" versus political social engineering is present. If the details in this opinion piece are accurate, I can understand why there would be a slow implementation, lots of hoops to jump through and significant added cost. I guess time will tell if those chip fabs materialize. Unfortunately we've been told, we don't have much time.
https://www.cato.org/commentary/social-policy-side-chips#
Note the date written......
Everything including the acronyms. Seems like a word salad article. I have read about what Morris Chang said about the difficulties of building a chip plant here and that was informative.
What are you unclear about?
(CLF)—Chess game between Nippon Steel and USW continues:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-labor-agreement-no-deal-211125908.html
Re: IIHS.org rating of ADAS systems
This just tests how intrusive a nanny the system is, not whether it actually steers the car and brakes and maintains speed appropriately. They would apparently give high marks to a system that shocks your private parts if your attention wanders but and occasionally drives off the road into a tree for amusement.
BYD - Still not ready for prime time. WSJ reports a variety of quality issues the latest being mold. Hyundai when they first started in the US had terrible quality issues in their first decade before getting it right. IMO BYD going through those same growing pains but they are doing it at high volumes so mistakes are going to be costly.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/13/24099417/byds-electric-vehicles-are-moldier-than-usual
Interesting that Gold is getting little love from investors as we hit all time highs.
ETF outflows are offset by increased Central Bank purchases and physical OTC market. With an emerging India, jewelry demand there is expected to rebound sharply. Add in a possible weakening dollar and geopolitical turmoil and the cake is baked. $2,600/Oz looks like a good target.
2024 Gold demand
My GROY holding now trades at ~0.68X asset value with cash flow catalysts pending. The comp group trades at 1.1X right now. While I expect some consolidation of physical gold prices and GROY stock price around this $2 level, I like the risk/reward.
IIHS.org rating of ADAS systems. Toyota in the lead for passenger cars. Tesla FSD not doing so well.
https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguards
3M announces new CEO effective 5/1/24:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-announces-leadership-appointments-103000708.html
3M today announced that William M. "Bill" Brown is appointed chief executive officer, effective May 1, 2024. He succeeds Michael Roman, who is appointed to the role of Executive Chairman of the 3M Board of Directors, also effective May 1, 2024.
…Brown, 61, is the former Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of L3Harris Technologies, a global innovator in aerospace and defense technology solutions, where he served as chief executive officer and chairman, and then executive chair from June 2019 to June 2022. Brown previously served as chairman, president, and chief executive officer of Harris Corporation prior to its merger with L3 Technologies in 2019. He joined Harris Corporation in November 2011 as president and chief executive officer. Prior to Harris Corporation, Brown spent 14 years at United Technologies Corporation (UTC) serving in a variety of leadership roles.
Roman will continue to chair 3M's Board of Directors and provide insights from his more than 35 years with 3M to the company's strategic direction as executive chairman of the board. He has served as 3M's CEO since July 2018.
I asked an AI about this practice and the first lines from the AI follow:
When candidate review or hiring committees are not from the specific department that is hiring, this can be a deliberate approach used by organizations for a few reasons:
Objectivity: A team from outside the department can provide an unbiased perspective, as they may be less likely to have preconceived notions about the candidates or the role.
Diverse Perspectives: Representatives from different departments can bring various insights and considerations to the selection process, ensuring that the candidate is a good fit for the broader organizational culture, not just the specific department.
Standardized Processes: A central HR or organizational development team might have established procedures and competencies that they are looking for across all departments, providing consistency in the hiring process.
The AI did not list "control" as an item, and this is where human intelligence outsmarts artificial.
'set “diverse hiring slate policies,”' Ever been interviewed by a group that did not know anything about the position that you were applying for? It is happening more and more. Everybody is stumped by this requirement whereby the candidate review and interview team does not work within the hiring department.
It is real.
F Trucks parked all over the place, all sorts of speculative explanations, but little verifiable truths.
Chips, steel, rubber, paints, plastics, and now rental property for the parking of trucks that nobody wants to purchase for the price being asked. Where will this lead? What will it take to off-load all of these trucks? Outside of Kentucky and Michigan is there any awareness of this calamity? Remember when rail oil cars were parked all over the place-imagine that but square it because the trucks are not parked in single lines, no there are rows after rows, after rows of them all over the place.
Is there a historical comparison, what will be the result?
How unfortunate, but predictable.
DEI is crushing the CHIPS act:
https://thehill.com/opinion/4517470-dei-killed-the-chips-act/
Details of 3M’s SOLV spinoff finalized:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-board-directors-approves-spin-165500127.html
3M shareholders of record on 3/18/24 will receive 1 share of SOLV for every 4 shares of 3M. The SOLV shares will be distributed before the market open on 4/1/24.
This is a tax-exempt distribution for US residents.
Steel prices have always been volatile, but ~45% of CLF's sales are subject to fixed-price contracts that are renegotiated annually.
Cleveland-Cliffs announces price increases
Cleveland-Cliffs "announced that it is increasing current spot market base prices for all carbon hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products, effective immediately with all new orders. Cliffs' minimum base price for hot rolled steel is now $840 per net ton."
January 3rd announcement
CLEVELAND, January 03, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) today announced that it is increasing current spot market base prices for all carbon hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products, effective immediately with all new orders. Cliffs’ minimum base price for hot rolled steel is now $1,150 per net ton.
A lot happened in 2 months
CLF independent director bought $40K of stock on the open market yesterday:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000060/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1709817256.xml
This is a different director from the one who bought $500K of stock in February (#msg-173752365).
Nvidia Directors Reap Windfall With $180 Million Share Sale
Two Nvidia Corp. directors sold about $180 million in shares of the chipmaker in recent days, becoming the latest insiders to cash in as the stock continues to push deeper into record territory.
Morgan Stanley says Tesla could show a loss this year.
IMO it looks like an open invitation for spaghetti codes. Probably a reflection of how they have done integration of codes via "catalogs". Software "catalogs" reminds me of IBM mainframe days with multiple volumes of telephone book size JCL binders.
What made America great was free enterprise. If we still had that the problem would be solved, but......................
But will this derail the conversion to EV's? Until there is an alternative battery that can outperform Lithium Ion the Lithium Ion battery will be the storage system of choice.
How is this info bearish for GM? TIA
For some reason I was able to access the article directly from magma.com, but not by clicking on the link in your post.
EV, lithium-ion battery fires hit with unprecedented levels across America: Report
Fox
XOM seeks arbitration wrt HES Guyana stake:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-exxon-signals-potential-counter-180644595.html
BYD - Laying down the gauntlet in China. Price cut to $9700 today. Range ~100 miles. 75HP. Tesla Model 2? Forget about it, they will need a Model 1 or let somebody in China make one for them.
GM/Magna - I don't get how GM will ever get to the software centric vehicle with the following approach.
https://www.magna.com/stories/news-press-release/2024/general-motors--magna-and-wipro-team-up-to-develop-automotive-software-marketplace--'sdverse'
Started a position in SA as a hold for long term. Used SA as a trade in previous years waiting for the appropriate moment to hold long. It's been a long slog bringing the KSM project to the point of applying for a a change in EAC to life of the mine. I believe it's the only road block holding up a partnership to begin the process of building out and opening operations. On paper KSM is a very profitable mining operation; largest undeveloped gold and 3rd largest undeveloped copper mine. Of course there is a possibility the application won't be accepted, but the substantial improvements SA has made, the benefit to the economy and the timing, considering the need for new copper mines makes KSM very doable. It also helps that the mine is in a very mining friendly country.
CLF upsized the 2032 debt offering to $825M—the amount needed to redeem all of the the outstanding 2026 notes via a tender offer as described in CLF's press release earlier today:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-announces-upsizing-pricing-202400355.html
The 2032 notes pay interest at 7.00%.
I admit the whole AI economy is difficult to quantify. I realize the technology is revolutionary, but I can't grasp the value of the participants moving this fast.
NVDA - Andrew Ng likes the chances of AMD (open source) and INTC somewhat in provide alternatives to NVDA proprietary OS. I guess the market heard the comments.
Nissan LEAF - the original EV finally gets a complete to the bones remodel. Originally built to compete with TM's Prius.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/nissan-ends-uk-leaf-output-ahead-replacement-model
CLF seeking debt swap—selling $750M of 2032 notes and redeeming $829M of 2026 notes via tender offer:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-announces-tender-offer-131600513.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-announces-proposed-offering-131300960.html
RVNC's 26% pop last Thursday now looks like manipulation prior to today's announcement of a capital raise:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173966343
For better or worse as the saying goes; the die has been cast. Everything in that post is accurate, but the weight of government mandates, policies and incentives will push the world to electric vehicles. One thing, they'll have to tear my 6 cylinder Highlander from my cold, stiff fingers......LOL
I don't have any plans to own an EV until they've overcome all the current shortcomings; I might be in for a long wait.
RVNC’s enterprise value ~$750M (cheap):
#msg-173955326
#msg-173955117
#msg-173955149
Waymo - just got clearance from CA DMV for freeways in SF and LA geofenced areas. After my prior Waymo post, youtube started sending me video links of Waymo rides in SF. The ones going through Chinatown are interesting with narrow streets, cars stopped on sides, street vendors and lots of jaywalkers. I haven't eaten there in years and always walked that area and parked elsewhere. Too hard to drive there and probably faster just to walk instead of hunting for parking.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088454/waymo-california-highway-expansion-los-angeles-bay-area
US Steel Takeover’s Fate May Hang on the Words of a Union Boss
Experts say the union the holds the ‘political leverage’
Nippon’s $14 billion deal is up for US official review
By Joe Deaux
March 2, 2024 at 9:30 AM EST
David McCall has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do right by America’s industrial workers, and he’s ready to seize the moment.
As head of the United Steelworkers, McCall finds himself in an unlikely place of power. Labor groups traditionally haven’t had much sway in US corporate takeovers. But 2024 is, of course, no ordinary year. So thanks to a growing political maelstrom that’s thrust the steelworker into the center of campaign rhetoric, McCall is now one of the most-crucial voices that can help decide the fate of Nippon Steel Corp.’s proposed $14 billion takeover of the storied United States Steel Corp.
And McCall is preparing for a fight.
“The transaction itself right now, as announced, there’s no way I’d accept it,” he said in a recent interview, indicating that he’s ready to go the brink – even if it means killing the deal – to make sure he can secure the concessions he’s seeking for his union members.
The union doesn’t have any official right to simply block an offer US Steel has accepted. What it does have is political leverage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-02/us-steel-nippon-takeover-fate-may-hang-on-words-of-union-boss?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=XLA0GJqR
The sodium battery plant BYD is building is aimed at scooters, three wheel trikes and very small cars. They know sodium isn't ready for general application, so for now Li is still king. I think PILBF is queued up to take full advantage of any increase in demand. Read there news releases, they have basically contracted their full 680kt production for the next 5 years, there expansion to 1,000kt is fully paid for and gives them additional supply to grow their share of the market. Even after the expansion project they will have ample cash reserves. As a pure play spodumene producer it doesn't get much better IMO. ALTM has a lot of project expansions that are coming to fruition in the near future. I like their Canadian operation(s), particularly their partnership with Investissement Québec on the Nemaska Lithium project. Since the government in Quebec is 50% partner the project should go smoothly, it also has the potential of processing spodumene from their James Bay project. Their brine operations are substantial and expanding providing plenty of future expansion. I also feel at $6B MC they are currently trading at a discount to their peers. My interest in LINRF is based on the fact that they are the only new producer of substantial spodumene coming online in Australia in the near future. They also have scale that puts them at #5 in annual production when they are at nameplate production, so they are still an attractive acquisition or merger target.
Note.....I still have a substantial number of PILBF shares bought between $0.40-.$0.64 share so adding and holding now doesn't add much risk. I am weighting my purchsases to ALTM over PILBF. My current position in ALTM is relatively small.
<<< Got it on the first read! No problem at all, LOL. >>> There is nothing unduly complex or confusing about the requirements, and anyone who thinks so clearly hasn't spent time with the IRC or Regs or prepared a tax return. Must be a slow day at Barron's to waste ink on the subject.
Got it on the first read! No problem at all, LOL.
I decided PHEV with less than real world battery range of less than 40 miles is not worth the trouble in Bay Area. Perhaps the reason I see so few of them relative to EVs.
Barron's - "Cars Are Finally Getting More Affordable. Here’s Why."
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/cars-are-getting-more-affordable-heres-why-44925aaa
Published: March 1, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET
By Al Root
The high cost of new cars has bugged buyers—and investors—since the pandemic. Now they’re looking more affordable. The average cost of a new car is roughly $47,000, up about $10,000, or 33%, from 2019. But interest rates are off highs and the average price is down almost $3,000 from the peak.
Since late 2019, wages are up about 21%, while new-car prices are up 29%. Barron’s took wages, interest rates, and new-car prices to calculate a vehicle affordability index. The index averaged about 56 in 2019’s second half, hit almost 66 in December 2022, and today is at 61—in the middle. (For new car buyers, the lower the reading of the Barron's New Car Affordability Index the better [.)
Another 3%, or $1,500, off the new-car price—with wages up 3% and a percentage-point drop in rates—would restore affordability to 2019 levels. Still, things aren’t “normal.” Fewer vehicles are coming off leases because fewer cars were sold from 2020 to 2022. Some 10 million cars are “missing,” says Lindland. Lower used inventory means used-car pricing might persist longer—and, since the two are linked, so might new-car prices./quote]
Barron's - "Confused About EV Tax Credits? Read This."
This is all part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. I'm presenting this with no comment as I'm speechless.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ev-tax-credits-c206d9b9
By Karen Hube, March 02, 2024
Excerpts:
The tax credit for an electric vehicle can be sizable, but the rules just changed and are more confusing than ever...A web of new and often confusing eligibility requirements was passed under the Inflation Reduction Act in late 2022 and went into effect last year.
...Now whether you can claim some or all of the $7,500 credit will depend on your income, various vehicle and battery details, and when you took possession of your electric car, SUV or truck.
...The new rules got rid of an older provision that only allowed the credit for the first 200,000 models sold of any qualifying vehicle and nixed the benefit for many buyers of popular Tesla, General Motors and Toyota models.
...To be eligible for the 2023 credit, you must have taken possession of the vehicle in 2023, but it isn’t enough to simply note your year of possession, Montoya says. The size of the credit may be different depending on whether you took possession before or after April 18 of last year when new rules kicked in.
...If you purchased an electric vehicle in 2023 but it wasn’t delivered until this year, you will have to wait until next year to claim the credit on your 2024 taxes.
...The credit is potentially only available for buyers of new or used EVs or plug-in hybrids. If you leased a model, you can’t qualify for a tax credit—only the financing company may be eligible.
Income thresholds->
You may be eligible to claim a 2023 EV credit for a new car if your modified adjusted gross income doesn’t exceed $300,000 for married couples filing jointly, $225,000 for heads of households and $150,000 for single and other individual filers. For a used car, the thresholds are halved: $150,000, $112,500 and $75,000.You can consider either your 2023 or 2022 income for eligibility purposes. As long as your income was below your threshold in one of the two years, you can potentially claim some or all of the 2023 credit.
New vehicle requirements->
The manufacturer’s suggested retail price may not exceed $80,000 for new vans, sport-utility vehicles and trucks or $55,000 for cars to be eligible for a tax credit.
A vehicle’s final assembly must be in North America, a rule that bumps Toyota and Hyundai models out of consideration for the credit, at least for 2023. Both manufacturers are working on opening plants in the U.S.
...If you took delivery of your vehicle between April 18 and the end of last year, your vehicle must also meet two battery requirements: At least 50% of battery components must be manufactured or assembled in North America, and at least 40% of critical minerals must have been extracted or processed in the U.S. or one of its free trade partners, or recycled in North America.
If your vehicle only meets one battery requirement, it is eligible for half the credit, $3,750. If it meets both, it is eligible for the full credit.
As a result of the battery rules, some or all models by Audi, BMW, Ford, Jeep, Nissan and Rivian that were eligible for the full credit in early 2023 became eligible for half starting on April 18. EVs by Tesla, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Chrysler and Volkswagen are eligible for the full credit for all of 2023.
You can find lists of eligible vehicles during different time frames on the U.S. Department of Energy’s website.
Rules for used vehicles->
For used clean vehicles, the maximum EV credit is 30% of the price with a $4,000 cap. The EV or plug-in hybrid must be sold by a dealer for $25,000 or less. It must also be at least two years old. If you bought a vehicle in 2023, it must have a model year of 2021 or older.
“It’s a little easier to qualify with a used vehicle because you don’t have to worry about where the vehicle is made,” Montoya says. The battery parts and minerals requirements also don’t apply.
I'll add to BYDDY, PILBF, ALTM and consider starting a position in LINRF.
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence is a forum for investment ideas based on this premise.
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