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CLF’s press conference today with Sen. Brown and USW President (29 minutes):
Firefighters sue 3M/DD/HON re PFAS-laden gear:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/connecticut-firefighters-sue-dupont-3m-214455035.html
The federal government is by far the largest owner of US timberlands. (WY, as result of the 2016 acquisition of Plum Creek, is the second-largest.) The federal timberlands alone must be worth several trillion dollars, not only for their timber value, but also for their potential alternative uses.
Also, let’s not ignore the National Parks.
They asked 500,000 people to fill out 24 hour food recall questionnaires; 120,000 or so submitted at least two. Then they looked at health records fir them over the next 9 years or so and looked for associations between ultra processed food, and nonprocessed vegetables , with steps to adjust for covariates. No follow up questionnaires so far as I could tell.
fed land and fed enclave follow up
The Presidio in San Francisco is one of the exceptions to the fed government making money/acre. The downside is that personal injury, labor disputes, … all get chucked into federal court bc ‘federal enclave’. I’m not sure how things like robbery or assault are handled. The consequence is that cases get bogged down and there can be egregious abuses of justice due to absence of federal remedies. I would expect this to have some impairment although big government contractors or big franchise vendors like McDonald’s find such situations to be very advantageous.
In terms of area, yes, but most of Alaska isn’t a particularly valuable real estate holding.
Military reservations and land around national labs comprise a large area in lower 48. For example, the Hanford reservation is several hundred square miles (probably > 1000 mi^2) and it has negative value outside of gov’t. The area around Oak Ridge, Savannah River and the Idaho ‘lab’ is about same.
A good chunk of fed gov’t owned land in Southern California is bombing & artillery range (I had an unexploded shell as a doorstop when I was in grad school ;^) ). Some of that land could be valuable for mining but California….
Then there’s the big chunks of Nevada that are fed owned. Mostly negative valuation.
Total federal land ownership is about 30% of the country. One of the scarier aspects of that ownership is that legal disputes arising out of incidents that occur on that land often get chucked into federal courts. Federal Enclave law is very complex but since I’ve become aware of the concept, I’m paranoid about stepping foot on federally owned property. Different topic ….
The study referenced...Implications of food ultra-processing on cardiovascular risk considering plant origin foods: an analysis of the UK Biobank cohort
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(24)00115-7/fulltext
The thesis of your post may be valid, but I would not trust information coming from mercola.com, which is a hotbed of junk science, as far as I can tell.
Labs and military bases comprise a pretty small fraction of total US landholdings, no?
much of the land holdings of the US gov’t are better considered as liabilities rather than assets. For example, national lab and military bases would be superfund sites if operations ceased.
Plant-Based Ultraprocessed Foods Linked With Higher Risk of Cardiovascular Disease
Got to wonder about 3D printed meat?
STORY AT-A-GLANCE
Plant-based ultraprocessed foods, including veggie burgers and meatless nuggets, increase the risk of cardiovascular disease
Eating plant-based ultraprocessed foods was linked with a 5% increased risk of cardiovascular disease and a 12% higher risk of cardiovascular disease mortality
Vegans and vegetarians often consume more ultraprocessed foods than meat eaters, especially “industrial plant-sourced meat and dairy substitutes”
The health risks of these unnatural foods come not only from the highly processed ingredients they contain but also from the additives and contaminants formed during processing
Plant-based ultraprocessed foods are typically loaded with seed oils high in the toxic omega-6 fatty acid linoleic acid
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2024/06/24/plant-based-ultraprocessed-foods.aspx?ui=cb65499db52abec6a9a590992872244905bf545afdb5f24bd660a43f2e592f19&sd=20150424&cid_source=dnl&cid_medium=email&cid_content=art1ReadMore&cid=20240624_HL2&foDate=false&mid=DM1591980&rid=55712030
Thanks. This is not something I have previously considered.
If one created a GAAP-like balance sheet for the USA—listing both the USA’s assets and its liabilities at fair market value—the enormous federal landholdings and other fixed assets would offset much of the debt. True, the fixed assets are not liquid, but some portion of the fixed assets could be monetized if push came to shove.
I would be interested in hearing why you're not worried.
Not many individuals can afford private care, and the bulk of the Baby Boom generation are still independent but will soon begin to required assisted living. This is a huge problem people don't think about until they're confronted with it.
Retirees’ Life Savings Can_Vanish_in Continuing Care Bankruptcies
When continuing care retirement communities go bankrupt, residents or their heirs can lose deposits they were told would be refundable
https://www.wsj.com/articles/retirees-life-savings-can-vanish-in-continuing-care-bankruptcies-dfe55c7d
Robert Lange and his wife moved into a retirement community outside of Detroit more than a decade ago. The couple, in their 80s at the time, thought they were set for life. Then in 2020, Henry Ford Village filed for bankruptcy.
Agreed...why worry about something you can't control; counter productive. I just put it in perspective, try to anticipate the economic impact and how to invest accordingly.
Krugman says not to worry, LOL:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/opinion/national-debt-us-taxes.html
Actually, I am not all that worried about the US deficit and the national debt, although my reasons are not the ones that Krugman cites.
CBO Jacks Up US 2024 Budget Gap Forecast by 27% to Nearly $2 Trillion
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cbo-jacks-us-2024-budget-180000516.html
Huh...imagine that. Welcome aboard the Crazy train.
FSRN—maker of Ocean EV-SUV—files for bankruptcy:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fisker-group-inc-files-chapter-062400106.html
"Fisker has made incredible progress since our founding, bringing the Ocean SUV to market twice as fast as expected in the auto industry and making good on our promises to deliver the most sustainable vehicle in the world," said a Fisker spokesperson. "We are proud of our achievements, and we have put thousands of Fisker Ocean SUVs in customers’ hands in both North American and Europe.
But like other companies in the electric vehicle industry, we have faced various market and macroeconomic headwinds that have impacted our ability to operate efficiently. After evaluating all options for our business, we determined that proceeding with a sale of our assets under Chapter 11 is the most viable path forward for the company."
Unusually heavy recent corporate-bond issuance is keeping US long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-yr T-bond) higher than they would otherwise be.
HD to Offer up to $10 Bil_in_Bonds_to_Finance_SRS_Acquisition, Bloomberg Reports
9:05 AM ET 6/17/24 | MT Newswires
09:05 AM EDT, 06/17/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Home Depot (HD) is turning to the bond market to bankroll $7 billion to $10 billion of its $18.25 billion acquisition of construction products distributor SRS Distribution, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing a person familiar with the matter.
The home improvement and hardware retailer is selling bonds in the US investment-grade market in up to nine offerings, Bloomberg cited its source as saying.
Home Depot did not immediately reply to MT Newswires' request for comment.
(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Former CDC director predicts bird flu pandemic:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4723753-former-cdc-director-predicts-bird-flu-pandemic/
Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield said he predicts a bird flu pandemic will happen — it’s just a matter of when that will be.
… He also noted that bird flu has a “significant mortality” when it enters humans compared to COVID-19. Redfield predicts the mortality is “probably somewhere between 25 and 50 percent…” [vs. an estimated 0.6% for COVID].
…There is no evidence yet that the virus is spreading between humans. …Scientists have found that five amino acids must change in the key receptor in order for bird flu to gain a propensity to bind to a human receptor “and then be able to go human to human” like COVID-19 did, Redfield said.
…More than 40 cattle herds nationwide have confirmed cases of the virus. …Since cattle live close to pigs and the virus is able to evolve from pigs to humans, there is cause for concern.
… Still, [Redfield] argued, there is greater risk for the disease to be lab-grown. “I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them,” he said. “So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.”
China censors robotaxi mishaps:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/13/business/china-driverless-car-safety.html
Images of the burned vehicle flew through the Chinese internet: An Aito M7 Plus electric sport utility vehicle, operated by an advanced assisted driving system, had crashed on a highway in Shanxi Province on April 26. A woman who said her husband, brother and son had been killed posted videos online and pleaded for an investigation. All of her postings soon vanished, and she said she would not discuss it further.
A Chinese business news outlet published a lengthy online investigation that questioned the safety of assisted driving systems. But that soon disappeared, too.
Nucor sees Q2 EPS $2.20-$2.30, consensus $2.99
07:31
Nucor announced guidance for its second quarter ending June 29, 2024. Nucor expects second quarter earnings to be in the range of $2.20-$2.30 per diluted share. Nucor reported net earnings of $3.46 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2024 and $5.81 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2023. The largest driver for the expected decrease in earnings in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 is the decreased earnings of the steel mills segment, due primarily to lower average selling prices, and, to a lesser extent, lower volumes. The steel products segment is expected to have decreased earnings in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to lower average selling prices, partially offset by increased volumes. Earnings in the raw materials segment are expected to be higher in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to the increased profitability of our direct reduced iron facilities
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3933639
EU tariffs only apply to EV's, they don't apply to plug in hybrids. BYD has the product mix that works in the EU.
One CLF director, Douglass Taylor, went against the grain and sold $500K worth of stock two days ago:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000152/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1718317004.xml
Taylor still owns >100,000 shares (~$1.5M worth).
CLF—Two more insider buys—$300K by one independent director and $100K by another independent director:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000150/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1718303164.xml
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000146/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1718283217.xml
All told, there are now four insider buys this week, and five insider buys since 5/1/24—see #msg-174593789.
May PPI data…
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
PPI: -0.2% MoM; +2.2% YoY (down from 2.3% in April)
Core* PPI: flat MoM; +3.2% YoY (unchanged from April)
See link above for further details.
*Excludes food, energy, and trade services.
CLF—more insider buying—independent director bought $1M of stock on the open market today:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000148/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1718294709.xml
For other recent insider buys, see #msg-174340346 (CEO) and #msg-174587787 (CFO).
There are no current plans to take on more debt.
I don't get what you're saying, didn't they just say they'd be comfortable taking on another $1 billon in debt for the new buyback plan, What other word would you use for taking on $1 billon of more debt?
They need to take care of the steel industry first. Prices are way down and stagnant at best.
I know that, but you're playing word games. Spending money to repurchase shares is not "borrowing."
CLF is ok with the balance sheet as it stands. A moderate amount of financial leverage is not a bad thing.
They spent >$575 mil to buy 30.4 million shares. They could have paid the bond down and reduced debt and interest.
Huh? The transactions were a swap—net debt remained constant.
Is it borrowed money? Do they pay interest?
Same thing
CLF didn’t borrow $525M recently. Rather, CLF swapped 2026-maturing bonds for (newly issued) 2032-maturing-bonds (#msg-173971746).
I don't consider borrowing $575 mil to buy shares 4 months ago that are now worth less than $460 mil a prudent move. He's buying on margin.
Ha! I don't agree that Celso has mismanaged the company's coffers.
Let's hope he does better than what he did with the company's coffers.
CLF CFO, Celso Goncalves bought $100K of stock on the open market today:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406524000144/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1718212569.xml
Celso Goncalves owns about $5M worth of CLF stock at the current market price.
p.s. CLF’s CEO, Lourenco Goncalves, is a much larger shareholder (#msg-174340346).
IEA forecasts oil glut by end of decade:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12/
Global oil demand will peak by 2029 and begin to contract the following year while the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries add to supply, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, resulting in a major surplus this decade.
…Its view contrasts with the outlook of oil producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which sees demand rising long after 2029 in part due to a slower shift to cleaner fuels and has not predicted a peak.
CAT hikes dividend—increases buyback authorization:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-inc-increases-dividend-increases-143000701.html
The new annualized dividend is $5.64 (up 8% from $5.20). At the current share price (~$330), the new payout equates to a dividend yield of 1.7%. CAT has increased its dividend for 30 consecutive years.
The new $20B buyback authorization, added to the $1.8B remaining from the $15B 2022 authorization (#msg-168886038), gives a total buyback authorization of $21.8B. If CAT implements the full buyback authorization and (for the sake of discussion) buys shares at an average equal to the current market price, the share count will be reduced by about 14%. However, there is no time limit on the buyback authorization.
Tariffs on EU EV imports....let the tit for tat begin. Putting a tariff umbrella over the EV market will probably result in higher prices, less drive for efficiency and a greater push by Chinese manufacturers to dominate other markets. Apparently the EU and USA have conceded the NEV race to China.
Looks like gold is making an old fashion pennant or ragged bull flag.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w
Wow...thanks for the link. I have considered the increase need for resource, but I had no idea of the absolute scale. When you consider the world requirements going forward it's astounding....again thank you!
From the same article:
Training OpenAI’s GPT-4 required an estimated 21 billion petaFLOP (a petaFLOP is 10^15 floating point operations). For comparison, an iPhone 12 is capable of roughly 11 trillion floating point operations per second (0.01 petaFLOP per second), which means that if you were able to somehow train GPT-4 on an iPhone 12, it would take you more than 60,000 years to finish.
On a 100 Mhz Pentium processor from 1997, capable of a mere 9.2 million floating-point operations per second, training would theoretically take more than 66 billion years.
Interesting article about the challenges of building AI data centers.
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-an-ai-data-center
Welcome back Oakes!!!!!!! Your knowledge in so many areas is incredible, albeit above my pay scale, and I love your humor. I totally enjoy your posts.
I don't know where you live, but have you seen any EVs in your city driving around with "Impossible Burger" signs on top delivering Impossible Burgers to homes like Domino's Pizza does with gas powered cars?
I think I understand enough of that content to be reassured as a CLF long. Thanks for such an informative post!
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In many nations, a middle class is emerging for the first time in history.
Companies who satisfy the demands of these consumers in a sustainable manner should have bright prospects.
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