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or pattern-based "stall" indication ...ok<^>
YM covered at 10380. still long NQs, waiting for 1520ish or stop out at 1426 or pattern-based "stall" indication - whichever comes first.
It’s because I obviously don't understand your statement:)
not sure i understand the question...?
You have my attn:)... [or a slightly more complicated "stall" situation where the instrument makes a near-term low.]
and you hold the longs?
there are two ways out short of 1520 - a stop at 1426 or a slightly more complicated "stall" situation where the instrument makes a near-term low.
Figured you did… you usually come back with a quick response unless you’re sleeping or out with the little one.
I know you don't hold for very long…
Right or wrong you position for trend at the earliest point and then add to the trend as it progresses, if right or dump the initial position if wrong… at some point you stop adding and start selling… since you’re at the inflection point of 100% loaded for bull on the NQ, what is the plan if you don't get 1520? I know you always have one and you rarely deviate from it… I’m just unclear of the rules.
Thanks
i saw that, glad you got what you needed. no change for today's targets: YM cover 10370 partial NQ sell around 1520.
Never mind… Chris provided a link for when I’m absent
can you tell me what the after hrs high was for NQ or QQQ
Thanks
no position changes at EOD. YM cover target around -50 from the close. NQ partial exit around 1520.
that's my thinking. this far out the put won't go to zero no matter. cash out the put, keep the rest since it's "free" anyway.
If i had the trade on, i would probably cover the put, and then wait for it to move 1 to 2 points in either direction.
If it moves back down, reshort the put. If it moves up, short one 40 call (or sell one of the 37 calls)
1499 NQ sell and YM short add both pulled. eom.
but is a big one BUT:)
yeah, but programming isn't a replacement for understanding. in theory adding a wrangle at the wing strike should be a costless position but...
Wait for Mr. Owl 2 wake up:) Does the kind of stuff in his head...
Those scramble my brain but then it doesn't take that much:)
I thought you were programming something for that?
ok, let me put this out there. when QQQ was at 35, the following options position was placed.
Sept expiry.
long 2 Puts @ 33
short 1 Call @ 35
short 1 Put @ 35
long 2 Calls @ 37
yesterday QQQ hit the max-loss point, which is at the wing strikes (33 or 37, position is symetrical). but since expiry is so far away, the "loss" is trivial thanks to theta and vega. the short put has shrunk to half it's original value.
so now what? hold it as is? close the short let the rest ride? put on the same position again, only this time centered on 37? interested in any and all thoughts.
prelim daily targets...
YM - cover 10329/EOD, short 10423
NQ - sell 2/3 1499
Actually that makes perfect sense. Most of the options programs use static models. Enter some options, and see what the PL/Time graph looks like.
But i have not seen any that allow me to create dynamic or conditional positions.
pictures are good
YM cover target is about 50-60 points down from the close, or EOD, whichever hits first. an additional similarly-expiring position will be taken on strength in the morning.
meanwhile the QQQ wrangle put back at 35 finds the underlying sitting on a wing strike. i'm really not sure how to handle this - it's a Good Thing, but these are Sept expiry, and the possible paths between now and then are enormous. this is why i'm building an analyzer in Mathematica - i need to overlay multiple strategies because i can't combine the profit surfaces in my head.
which probably sounds meaningless.
no worries, i should have pictures soon enough...
just more proof G-d hates Bears:
Unfortunately, no exact analytic formula for the value of an American-style put opion on a non-dividend paying stock has been produced.
:)
I bet those educational products make money for them. I'm sure their are plenty of parents who want to give their kids every advantage they can have.
Mathematica has reader? Cool... i'll download it.
http://www.wolfram.com/products/mathreader/
i sometimes think Mathematica is the product computers were invented for.
hey, check this out. leave no market untapped! :)
http://www.wolfram.com/products/homeschoolkit/
Mathematica has reader? Cool... i'll download it.
I look forward to seeing your dynamic option strategies in action.
i think this weekend i'll have the Mathematica-based OptionsAnalyzer up and running. if you're willing to download the Mathematica reader - like a PDF reader for mathematical documents - i'll fire off a copy of the "paper" when it's ready.
yeah, i tell chris it's time to buy QQQ calls and he tells me which ones he's keen on. there are up to 2 more additions, we'll see how far, if anywhere, this runs...
rock and roll. they are yours, i'll fill in the header later.
It's WLD's option experiment, but he is calling it "Chris's option experiment". He chooses the the entry and exit, but he's letting me pick the option to use.
From the board header:
Chris's Options Experiment 03.26.04 +QAVDH 1.75 04.05.04 -QAVDH 3.50 +100%
no link on this board for the Chris's experiment... how does it work?
My choice would be the QQQIJ, Sept 36 calls which are trading at about 2.4. Delta is at 0.6 and the IV is at 24.
1476 hit, NQ position full. 100% long NQ, 50% short YM, with far-month wrangles on TLT, QQQ and OSX.
chris's option experiment also has an entry signal today. i will defer the privilege of picking a Jun QQQ call to buy to him. :)
10339 YM target hit: current exit is 10298. NQ add target of 1476 still unhit - but close.
YM short target 10339. eom.
dull market rules - same targets in effect yet again. NQ add at 1476, sell some far side of 1500.
today's points of interest...
NQ - add 1476, sell some 1524
ES - add 1104
VIX - potential swap for ratio bear spread
no change in targets:
NQ add at 1476, sell 2/3 at 1499.
ES start long position at 1110.
VIX - long, holding for (spot) top of channel (>19)
points of interest:
ES - add first batch at 1110
NQ - add final batch at 1476. sell 2/3 at 1499.
1476 remains NQ add point. if Good Things happen, 1500 is the 2/3 exit point. 1110 is the ES go-long level.
ES entry level probably dropping before the close. eom.
1110 is a prohibitive ES add point. NQ add point remains at 1476. eom.
Good luck on your program.
nope, Matlab. i think Mathematica is where we'll finally end up but for now...Matlab. mainly so i don't have to write the plotting/graphing stuff.
options: always looking for the cheapest way to lay out the long term plays. have to admit there is an entire universe of possibilities i hadn't really considered.
nahhh... I just don't want to be dicking around with getting every single keystroke correct...
Easy is easy when it's downloadable
Frustration is frustrating… unless I want something real bad:)
Are you writing it in Perl? Good luck on it.
I've got McMillan's "Options as a Strategtic Investment", Nantenberg's "Option Pricing and Volatility", Fontanill's "The Options Course", and some Bernie Shaeffer book buried somewhere.
But i have not read the McMillan book you mentioned.
BTW: I thought you were Options 12-Step program? Times change, eh? -g-
aha! so you ARE lazy! -bg-
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