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REUTERS Taiwan stocks end lower on economic fears [DKHQNGL]
(updates with market close)
TAIPEI, June 16 (Reuters) - Taiwan stocks reversed early
gains to end at a one-month low on Wednesday as upbeat U.S.
inflation data failed to shake investors out of a skeptical
wait-and-see attitude on the island's economic outlook.
The TAIEX <.TWII> share index was down a provisional 1.50
percent at the 0530 GMT close before finally finishing with a
decline of 86.33 points, or 1.53 percent, to 5,560.16
"Most investors are on the sidelines and ignoring positive
news," said Peggy Hsiung, manager of proprietary trading at
Pacific Securities."I don't think that 5,450 points will
necessarily be a support level," she said, pointing to a
nine-month intraday low reached on May 17.
Banking shares were among the heaviest decliners, with Mega
Financial holdings, Taiwan's second largest listed financial
firm, losing 3.18 percent in active trade.
(US$1 = T$33.7)
((Reporting by Michael Kramer; editing by Kirby Chien; Reuters
Messaging: michael.kramer.reuters.com@reuters.net; email
michael.kramer@reuters.com; Tel: +886 2 2508-0815))
Early Tuesday (6/15/04) summary:
REUTERS Taiwan stocks fall as tech shares follow US peers
TAIPEI, June 15 (Reuters) - Taiwan stocks extended a four-day fall in early Tuesday trade as tech heavyweights like TSMC <2330.TW> took cues from losses in U.S. counterparts that were hurt by fears over an expected hike in U.S. interest rates.
Around 45 minutes into trade, the TAIEX <.TWII> was down 0.75 percent at 5,532.03, after slumping nearly seven percent over the past four sessions. Turnover remained soft at T$17.9 billion.
"We are still concerned about volatile U.S. stocks and a slow season for the tech sector in the second quarter," said Richard Tsai, senior vice president at Grand Cathay Securities.
Soft turnover of T$19.1 billion underscored the cautious mood.
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker, slid 1.15 percent to T$42.80 after going ex-dividend on Monday, pulling the electronics sub-index <.TELI> 0.58 percent lower.
TSMC and smaller rival United Microelectronics <2303.TW> were hurt by a downgrade on contract chip makers made last week by Goldman Sachs.
Memory chipmaker Powerchip <5346.TWO> lost 1.26 percent to T$23.60 and microchip designer VIA Tech <2388.TW> was down 0.35 percent at T$28.40, following a 2.27 percent drop on the U.S. Philadelphia semiconductor index <.SOXX> on Monday.
But AU Optronics <2409.TW>, the world's third-largest display maker, was one bright spot, rising 0.41 percent to T$49.10 due to bargain hunting after recent losses triggered by an investment rating downgrade by Deutsche Bank.
Despite the early losses, some analysts saw limited downside due to an expected rise in Taiwan's weighting on Morgan Stanley Capital International's (MSCI) influential indices later this month.
(US$1=T$33.7)
((Reporting by Baker Li, editing by Kirby Chien;
baker.li@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging:
baker.li.reuters.com@reuters.net; +886 2 2508-0815))
Taiwan markets dipped huge again Monday 6/14. Chip supply worries and US Interest rates seem to dominate market discussion over there recently. There is also a lot of fear about US investors pulling out of their bond markets; this must be spilling over to their stock market was well.
I checked the Taiwan stocks that were limit down Monday on the TWII and the sell off was actually pretty broad.
Look for a bad day Monday in US trading on TSM, ASX, SPIL and EWT and the others.
Taiwan chips may get a one day bounce out of this Intel mid-quarter update news Thursday.
SPIL, ASX, TSM are all on my watch list these days. But they keep going down.
Looking for a double bottom overall in the Taiwan market, but it will probably be lower than the May low, imo.
This is strictly a long play for me, although a savvy investor would have been short on the recent rebound from the May low.
Still watching.
REUTERS Taiwan stocks rebound as microchip shares gain [DJXPXKB]
(Updates indices, adds comment)
TAIPEI, June 4 (Reuters) - Taiwan stocks bounced from the
week's sharp correction in early trade on Friday, as microchip
heavyweights like TSMC <2330.TW> cheered a positive sales
forecast from Intel <INTC.O> on Thursday.
The main TAIEX share index <.TWII> opened flat but was up
0.76 percent to 5,714.47 around half an hour into trade,
recouping some of the 7.6 percent it lost since hitting a
four-week closing high last Friday.
"The Intel news helped semiconductor shares. But we still
view it as a technical rebound as uncertainties across the strait
linger," said Tao Chih-wei, deputy manager of institutional
investor division at Fubon Securities.
He referred to the soft turnover of T$19.22 billion on
worries over rumours of Chinese wargames off Taiwan and possible
moves by Beijing to tighten control of Taiwan businesses
operating in China, the island's largest export market.
But Taiwan's cabinet urged investors on Thursday to exercise
reason and focus on solid economic and corporate fundamentals,
instead of rumours.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's
largest contract chipmaker, rebounded from Thursday's fall,
rising 1.89 percent to T$54.00, leading the electronics sub-index
<.TELI> 0.65 percent higher.
Memory chipmakers were among other major winners after chip
giant Intel narrowed the range of its revenue forecast for the
second quarter to the upper end of that range, citing
better-than-expected performance in its communications business.
Nanya Tech <2408.TW>, the island's largest memory chipmaker,
rose 1.28 percent to T$23.70 and rival Winbond Electronics
<2344.TW> was up 0.35 percent to T$14.50.
Despite the early rise, analysts said higher oil prices
remain a concern as Taiwan imports virtually all of its crude oil
needs.
(US$1=T$33.6)
Thanks for all the digging, Worm.
About the Asian ETFs from CBS Marketwatch - fear, etc. Story has charts that I don't know how to post here. Use the link.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
THE TECHNICAL INDICATOR ($)
Longer-term risk remains to the downside
By Michael Ashbaugh, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:30 AM ET May 18, 2004
Tuesday's set ups: MACR, ABGX, IMAX, LEXR, IDCC, Asian ETF's, India-related stocks
EDITOR'S NOTE: This is a free edition of The Technical Indicator, a daily newsletter from CBS MarketWatch. For a more detailed account of the markets on a day-to-day basis -- in addition to 100 trading ideas per month -- please subscribe to The Technical Indicator.
CINCINNATI (CBS.MW) -- U.S. markets opened higher Tuesday behind an upturn in Asian stocks driven by stronger-than-expected GDP data in Japan.
The favorable move comes a day after the major U.S. averages traded to 2004 lows amid concerns over geopolitical instability, with oil prices near all-time highs.
The Nasdaq's hourly chart above illustrates its price activity over the past two weeks.
Going into Monday, the question was whether the index could hold support at its six-month low of 1,878. That level marks the November low, and also matched last week's low observed Wednesday.
As the chart above illustrates, the index didn't exactly hold 1,878, but it favored that level throughout Monday. By day's end, the Nasdaq had closed at 1,876.6.
So the Nasdaq traded to a marginally new six-month low without drawing significant additional sell pressure.
The near-term story on the S&P 500 is similar to that on the Nasdaq.
Like the Nasdaq, the S&P sold off Monday but managed to hold two-week lows. In fact, Monday's intraday low at 1,079 marked the third test of that area in just six sessions.
Not surprisingly, the near-term picture on the Dow closely resembles the other two indices. Though the Dow posted a 105-point loss Monday, it failed to make a new low.
So in each of the three cases above, the major averages held the low end of their range despite considerable weakness in Asia to start the week. Yet at the same time, each also failed to reclaim its 20-period moving average.
All in all, the markets didn't completely collapse behind Asia, but they also failed to neutralize the negative near-term outlook.
Widening the view to the daily time frame, points to a less favorable development on the Dow Industrials.
The index finally placed distance under the 10,000 level closing Monday at 9,906. So after a full week of testing its 200-day moving average, which currently holds at 10,024, the Dow ultimately violated that area on this first approach.
As suggested Monday, the failure on this first test is both unusual, and distinctly bearish. If there were a silver lining to Monday's session it was the light volume, and the muted response to potentially alarming developments in Asia.
The S&P 500's daily chart adds perspective to its recent "successful" test of its 200-day moving average. Again, in three of the past six sessions, the S&P has observed its 200-day as support.
Yet also note the conviction diving into its 200-day -- measured by both price and volume -- has exceeded the conviction on the ensuing lift. So to this point, any "rally" attempt has looked reflexive, as though a handful of traders simply honored the technical trade on that first test of the 200-day.
The Nasdaq's daily chart illustrates Monday's move to six-month lows.
Note that taking away the lines and arrows, the broader pattern above remains distinctly bearish.
The index has carved out two consecutive downtrends capped by the January high and the April high. At the same time, the April high marked a "lower high" vs. January and Monday's low marked a "lower low" vs. March.
This means the current downtrend is intact, and if the index would place distance under the November low at 1,878, the subsequent downside could be considerable.
The bigger picture
Not surprisingly, the broader technical picture remains bearish.
Both the Nasdaq and the Dow remain under their 200-day moving averages and the Dow placed distance under the 10,000 level Monday.
Without question, the markets are near-term oversold. In fact, the Nasdaq has lost as much as 187 points, or 9.1 percent, in a matter of just 16 sessions. Nonetheless, until a technical buy signal is triggered, it will be difficult to adopt an overtly bullish stance.
So while the markets are near-term oversold, caution remains well advised until the Nasdaq and the Dow can either reclaim their 200-day moving averages, or post a positive session on strong volume that follows through with additional buy interest.
Tuesday's watch list
The charts below identify names worth watching from a technical perspective. These are intended as radar screen names -- sectors or stocks that appear well positioned for a potential move in the specified direction over the near term.
Company Symbol Mon Close Support Resistance
Macromedia MACR $22.59 $21.00 $23.62
While the Nasdaq edges to six-month lows, Macromedia (MACR: news, chart, profile) still favors six-month highs.
In late April, it broke out on increased volume, and has since trended higher on progressively lighter volume. Initial resistance at $23.62 matches the May high.
Company Symbol Mon Close Support Resistance
Abgenix ABGX $16.05 $15.00 $16.45
Abgenix (ABGX: news, chart, profile) is another relative strength name well positioned to rise.
Late last month, it gapped higher on increased volume. It has since filled the gap, finding support around $15.00, before lifting Monday while the broad markets sold off. The near-term outlook should favor additional gains barring a close below that support point at $15.00.
Company Symbol Mon Close Support Resistance
IMAX Corp IMAX $5.41 $4.95 $5.50
Though not a relative strength name, Imax Corp nonetheless looks well situated to rise.
Last week, it cleared a three-month downtrend on increased volume and has since maintained its 20-day moving average as support. The near-term outlook would further improve on a break above resistance at $5.50 which approximates its 50-day simple moving average.
Company Symbol Mon Close Support Resistance
Lexar Media LEXR $9.54 $8.50 $10.25
After surviving several tests of support around $8.50, Lexar Media (LEXR: news, chart, profile) looks well situated for an oversold bounce. Note that Monday it lifted on increased volume despite the broad market sell off.
From current levels, initial resistance at $10.25 marks its 20-day exponential moving average and is followed by more distant overhead at the bottom of the mid-April gap of $11.75.
Company Symbol Mon Close Support Resistance
InterDigital Communications IDCC $15.65 $15.67 $17.55
Profiled Wednesday, InterDigital Communications remains vulnerable to further downside.
Note that Monday's close at $15.65 matched closely with the target support point originally designated at $15.67. Also note the arrows above illustrate when and where it has observed its major moving averages.
It will take a break above its 50-day moving average, currently at $17.55, to improve the near- to intermediate-term outlook.
Asian markets trigger further weakness in the U.S. indices
The steep slide in Asian stocks has been a considerable weight on the U.S. markets.
The three Asian regions illustrated above - Japan (EWJ: news, chart, profile), Taiwan (EWT: news, chart, profile) and Hong Kong (EWH: news, chart, profile) -- were profiled as vulnerable exactly one week ago. Each has since extended its recent downtrend, placing distance under its 200-day moving average.
As suggested last week, exchange traded funds (ETF's) are worth tracking in a down market as many are exempt from the "uptick" rule requiring short positions to be initiated on an uptick in the share price.
Note that Hong Kong iShares were initially profiled here as a short candidate Thursday, May 6 and have since lost as much as 12.7 percent in less than two weeks.
Weakness in India also drags U.S. markets
Monday, the India stock market posted its biggest single-day drop in its 129-year history -- 17 percent intraday -- as investors weighed the potential impact of its new government. By way of comparison, a comparable move on the Dow Industrials would be a crushing 1,700-point single-day loss.
The three charts above illustrate names impacted by the sell off.
The India Fund (IFN: news, chart, profile) was initially profiled Friday -- just ahead of the collapse -- and has since dropped 13.4 percent.
Infosys Technologies (INFY: news, chart, profile) was profiled Monday and subsequently extended to six-month lows on increased volume.
Satyam Computer Services (SAY: news, chart, profile) is a software company that like Infosys above, also extended to six-month lows on increased volume.
Each of these names will need to reclaim its 200-day moving average before the near-term outlook improves.
Still well positioned
The table below includes selected names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the more recent set ups, please subscribe to The Technical Indicator.
Long Set ups
Company Symbol Date of Mention
LifeCell LIFC May 12
FARO Technologies FARO May 11
CSG Systems CSGS May 10
Automatic Data Processing ADP May 10
Nextel Partners NXTP May 7
LifePoint Hospitals LPNT May 7
Gen Probe GPRO May 6
ConocoPhillips COP May 6
Autodesk ADSK May 5
Short Set Ups
Company Symbol Date of Mention
Taiwan iShares EWT May 11
Corinthian Colleges COCO May 11
Beazer Homes BZH May 10
Toll Brothers TOL May 10
Lennar Corp LEN May 10
KB Home KBH May 10
XM Satellite Radio XMSR May 7
Hong Kong iShares EWH May 6
Russell 2000 iShares IWN May 3
Michael Ashbaugh writes technical analysis for CBS MarketWatch and is the editor of MarketWatch's The Technical Indicator newsletter.
from MSN.CO.IN - India version of briefing.com - sort of. This is a diary of the India market "crash."
Market Commentary
May 17, 2004
Morning session
Afternoon session
Mid session
Last session
-----
Pre market
Markets set to open weak
The spill-over effect of Friday's fall could continue in the opening minutes at least. With the new government likely to be sworn-in, the markets will anxiously watch the composition and the ministries being allotted. The Left's view on anti-disinvestment will continue to negatively impact the market. Investors should exercise extreme caution and reduce any long positions till stability is seen in the government and the markets. Undercurrent continues to be weak. PSU and banking stocks such as HPCL, BPCL, IOC, SBI, Bank of Baroda are expected to fall further.
Tech socks may be under selling pressure after Nasdaq slipped by 21 points on Friday. Moreover ADRs like Infy (down 7%), Sify (down 7%) and Wipro (down 10%). Asian market like Nikkei and Hang Sang opened on negative note.
The Sensex will see the exit of L&T and entry of Maruti with effect from 19 May. Shanti-Gears could rise after the company considered a stock-split and bonus.
-----
Early morning session (10.00am - 10.30am)
Investors freeze as trading halts
The domestic bourses recorded its sharpest single-day drop in history. Both Nifty and Sensex crashed on persistent selling from investors. Nifty was down 11% at 1400 while Sensex shed 10% 4516 (down 553 points). This forced market authorities to intervene and halt trading for one hour. There is aggressive FII selling and rumors of margin pressure to pulled down the market. The political uncertainty, both Congress and CPM against on PSU disinvestment and hope of hike on bank interest to pulled down the market. Sensex has lost 10% (553 points) and was frozen at 4516. PSU and banking stocks are the biggest losers in the market. Both PSU and bank index were down by 18% and 13% respectively.
Among the PSU stocks, HPCL has lost by Rs56 (17%) to 272. Others PSU stocks like IOC (down 19%), BPCL (down 21%), ONGC (down 15%), BHEL (down 22%) and GAIL (down 26%).
Among the Sensex stocks, Reliance lost ground. The scrip has lost by 13% at Rs416. SBI is the another big loser in the Sensex. The scrip has shed 12% to Rs453. Others like Gujarat Ambuja, Infosys (down Rs311), Wipro, MTNL (down 9%), Reliance Energy and Wipro have lost significantly.
-----
Morning session (10.30am - 12.30pm)
Worst fall...Manmohan Singh tries damage control
For the second time today the markets have frozen, this time for two hours. The Sensex crashed by over 15% (786 points) to 4282 while it has lost 1,116 points in past two consecutive days. Should the Sensex shed another 5%, the BSE will be closed for the day. The market may suspended for the rest of the day if the Sensex loses 20% (1040) to touch 4056. Meanwhile, reacting to the fall and in a bid to restore some confidence, senior Congress leader Dr. Manmohan Singh said there is no need to panic. He added that the new Government's policies would be pro-growth, pro-savings, pro-investments and pro-employment. "We will not do anything that will create an adverse environment for growth in the country," Singh said adding that it was SEBI's responsibility to ensure stability in capital market.
There is a massive sell off by FIIs. While the political situation could be to a great extent responsible for the selling, global emerging funds have been witnessing redemption pressure. Rumors of margin pressure are adding to the market's woes.
PSU stocks continue to be at the receiving end due to lack of clarity on the disinvestment front. Dr Manmohan Singh says that disinvestment will be done on a case to case basis, but the markets are not impressed. BSE PSU index has dropped by 23%. GAIL has lost by 35% to Rs107 and BPCL has nose-dived by 30% at Rs250. Other PSU stocks like BHEL (down 22%), SCI (down 30%), Bharat Electronics, BEML, Kochi Refinery, Bongaigaon Refinery, IOC and ONGC have lost in the range of 14-25%.
Bank stocks were hit hard. Union Bank has lost 25% at Rs40. Others like Oriental Bank (down 29%), SBI (down 19%), Syndicate Bank (down 23%), Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank (down 29%) have lost significantly.
There was a sharp fall on the Reliance counter. The scrip has nose-dived by 19% at Rs385. Tata Power is also another big loser. The scrip has shed 20% at Rs258 and Tata Motors has nose-dived to Rs312. Reliance Energy is the biggest loser today. The scrip has slipped by 33% at Rs432. Others like ACC, Gujarat Ambuja, Grasim, IPCL, Tisco and Infosys (down 15%) have lost significantly.
-----
Afternoon session (12.30pm - 2.00pm)
Manmohan Magic: markets' mayhem minimizes
A couple of statements from senior Congress leader Manmohan Singh seems to have done the trick. Moreover RBI's announcement of making available sufficient liquidity to banks seemed to have eased the situation to some extent. As a result, the Sensex is now down 352 points at 4717 after touching a day's low of 4227. However, foreign funds continue to sell. PSU, tech, bank and power stocks have lost significantly.
On the political front the communist parties have opted not to join the Congress-led coalition. However, they will support the alliance from outside. Meanwhile, a crowd of investors and brokers have gathered outside the Bombay Stock Exchange on Dalal Street and are shouting slogans. The police have also been called in to avoid any untoward incidents. Coming back to the Sensex, Tata Power is the biggest loser among Sensex stocks. The scrip has nose-dived by 43 points to Rs280. Reliance has shed Rs32 to Rs449. Infosys is witnessing a sharp fall. The scrip has nose-dived by Rs312 to Rs4770 after touching a day's low of Rs4440. Others like Tisco, Gujarat Ambuja, Reliance Energy and SBI have lost in a range of 6-15%.
Tech stocks are witnessing a sharp fall on account of FII selling. However, they have partially recovered from lower levels. Wipro has slipped by 6% to Rs1460 after touching a day's low of Rs1310. Others like Infosys (7%), Polaris Software, Hughes Software, NIIT, HCL Tech and VisualSoft have lost in a range of 6-10%.
PSU stocks are the biggest losers in the market. IBP has lost by 15% and is at Rs381. Others like HPCL (down 10%), BPCL (down 15%), IOC, ONGC, Nalco (down 21%) and SCI (down 17%) have lost significantly.
-----
Mid-market session (2.30pm - 3.00pm)
Sensex slide continues unabated
After some respite, the indices are back on their southbound journey following aggressive selling by institutions. The Sensex has shaved off 513 points and is at 4557. PSU, banking, tech, cement and power socks have lost significantly.
Tech major - Infosys is witnessing a sharp fall. The scrip has nose-dived by Rs422 to Rs4655. BHEL has been hammered drastically. The scrip has nose-dived by Rs105 and is at Rs395. Media major - Zee has bounced back into positive territory. The scrip is the only gainer on the Sensex and has gained by 4% at Rs118 after touching a day's low of Rs100. Others like MTNL, Grasim (down Rs76), ONGC (down Rs116), SBI, Tisco and Tata Motors have lost in a range of 10-15%.
Auto stocks have lost further. Tata Motors has lost 43 points at Rs370. Others like Maruti (down 4%), Escorts, M&M (down 10%) and Punjab Tractors have lost significantly.
Banking stocks continue to witness a bloodbath. Vijaya Bank has lost by 20% and is at Rs42. Others like SBI, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Indian Overseas Bank, Union Bank and Oriental Bank have lost in a range of 10-22%.
-----
Last session (3.00pm - 3.30pm)
Monday May-hem: Sensex squeezed by 565 points
The stock markets saw a crash never witnessed before in over a decade. Indices froze twice during the day at the 10% and 15% lower levels. While the first cooling lasted for an hour, the indices went into a tailspin and froze yet again for another two hours. Senior Congress leader Dr Manmohan Singh had to step in and make some statements which halted the fall in the market. Today's fall is the worst fall since April 28, '92. The Sensex nose-dived by almost 600 points (11%) to record one of its largest fall. The Sensex opened at 5020 and crashed to a low of 4,227. It finally ended at 4505.16, down 564.71 points.
"We will not do anything that will create an adverse environment for growth in the country," Manmohan Singh said adding that it was SEBI's responsibility to ensure stability in capital market.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar tumbled, and stocks across the world plunged on Monday after crude oil prices hit another all-time high in reaction to the bomb attacks in Iraq and Turkey.
Foreign funds didn't spare a moment in dumping stocks and seemed willing to sell at any available rate. Panic selling intensified and rumors of margin pressure added to the woes of the markets. FIIs were net sellers of Rs6.04bn on Friday. The Sensex lost 900 points in two consecutive days and nearly 1250 points in the last seven trading sessions. Factors which broadly kept sentiment weak include the current political situation, CPM's anti-disinvestment move, weakness in Asian markets and hints that the new government may not reduce bank stake. As a result, the Sensex lost 564 points to close at an eight-month low of 4506. Among the major losers in the Sensex were BHEL (down 20%), Infosys (down 10%), Wipro (down 20%), Reliance (down 27%), Tisco, Tata Motors and HLL (16%). However, Zee was the only gainer among the Sensex stocks.
The PSU, IT and banking indices lost around 13% each. Among the auto stocks, Apollo Tyres was down 17.39% at 180 while Escorts shed 13.73% to close at 52.15. Punjab Tractors was down 11.67% at 185. M&M shed 10%, Maruti fell 6.3%, TVS Motor was down 11% and Hero Honda was down 8%.
Among the Sensex stocks, Reliance Energy was biggest loser The scrip slipped by Rs163 to close at Rs477. FMCG giant -HLL nose-dived by Rs21 to close at Rs120. Tech giant Infosys recorded weakened after sessions of strength. The scrip lost by Rs571 to close at Rs4519. Wipro exhibited a sharp fall. On Friday, its ADR had shed around 10%. The scrip shed Rs284 to close at Rs1262. However Zee was in limelight. The scrip surged by Rs7 to close at Rs121. Others like Tata Power (down Rs62), L&T (Rs50), Grasim, ITC and Gujarat Ambuja lost in a range of 8-15%.
PSU stocks continued to get hammered and many were at the 20% lower circuit. BHEL, GMDC, Chennai Petro, BEML, GAIL (down 22%), SCI and SAIL were locked at the 20% lower circuit. However, both BPCL and HPCL recovered partially from lower levels. BPCL slipped by Rs12 to close at Rs343 after touching a day's low of Rs230. Others like IOC, ONGC, Neyveli Lignite and TNPL lost significantly.
Southbound journey continued in banking stocks. The credit policy will be unveiled tomorrow. Oriental Bank nose-dived by 26% to close at Rs167. Others like Bank of Baroda (down 21%), Vijaya Bank (down 20%), SBI down (13%), Canara Bank, Indian Overseas Bank and Dena Bank lost in a range of 10-15%.
Tech stocks were weak. Friday's fall in ADRs and Nasdaq Futures weakness by over 1% pulled the tech stocks lower. Both tech heavyweights, Infosys and Wipro slipped by 11% and 20% respectively. Others like Polaris Software (down 18%), VisualSoft (down 18%), HC Infosys, Rolta and NIIT (down 21%) lost ground.
Random thoughts and recent stuff:
I heard on analyst on CNBC today say that trading India ADRs is not as good as trading the stocks on the India market, as the issues in the US trade at an inflated premium.
This makes sense to me, and is probably true of all ADRs to some degree.
I guess this guy was trying to get a few people to call their brokers Tuesday to "buy India."
QQQ doesn't trade exactly to the penny of all of its components. And these stocks trade in the same time zone - LOL.
It's interesting that there is exactly a 12 hour lag in their markets and ours. One would think that Taiwan ADRs and the EWT (Taiwan ETF) would trade at one price for the day - people who buy or sell are basically gambling on what will happen overnight. Having watched EWT for the past week, it has been tracking moves up and down with Naz futures to a certain degree.
So I accept the premise that ADRs can't possibly mirror exactly what's going on with a stock in their home markets. Sounds more like these are better swing trades than day trades to me. This is one reason why I have never liked trading ERICY very much. But I know that FMDAY is an ADR that is a VERY VOLATILE iHub favorite, so to each their own I suppose.
When we get a tech rebound in the U.S., the Asian stocks that are most oversold could explode as their markets are more oversold than ours are, in my opinion, and will attract a lot of attention from the smart and swift.
The Chinese government "warning" the Taiwan government right before the election is finished in Taiwan sounds very threatening, but this has been going on for centuries by many accounts. This is yet another reason why this whole situation just screams "opportunity" to me. The Yahoo news link (posted earlier) does an adequate job of providing contextual links to news in this area of the world.
Lots of red candles and gaps down on EWT and the Taiwan ADRs and the charts look really scary. Difficult to know where the bottom is, but I bet someone is on CNBC the WEEK AFTER BOTTOM reached telling people to buy Asia. Be careful of the bull trap.
I wish a fibonacci "expert" could join us and do a little long term analysis on the 7 Taiwan ADS and EWT - I am not good at that, and would appreciate some expert attention... If you know an iHub fib expert, ask them to stop by and post some charts, will you?
Also, I remember hearing on CNBC Europe early one morning last week -- some Brit was talking about the "Wall Street Turks" (his words) that have moved to Tokyo to trade the next bull market. Paraphrasing here:
- He said these "turks" have real time access and proximity to the Pacific Rim and are making a fortune. Riding the wave up and now shorting the markets back down.
- Oversold conditions, he said, could be attributed to FAR MORE than what is going on with local governments and company fundamentals. Sounded a lot like someone over here blaming hedge funds for the recent tech sell off.
- He warned that Asian markets had much farther to go on the sell off (fear) and that buying too early would be too tempting for many in the U.S. (greed); but he urged restraint (fear). Same old stuff.
ONE final note: A few weeks ago, I remember the big story in the Wall Street Journal calling India "The Next China." Sue H. on CNBC went to India for like a week surveying the landscape (I wonder who paid for that).... Think how ape shit those BIG BOYS were when India sold off overnight *over a weekend.* Do you think they dumped everything???
Interesting stuff, for just a mid-level investor...
(Disclosure: I have only been trading stocks for 2 years and was a mutual fund idiot for 15 years before that).
All opinions expressed are my own. Please share yours!
-30-
The Bank of NY site has a feature to set up an ADR watch list. Places a cookie. I put all the Taiwan issues on a watch list on their site.
News is better than what I can see from other sources
(i.e. Lycos does not have many of these May 17 items)
4:00 PM ET May 17, 2004 - [ASX] Teradyne and ASE Announce Strategic Agreement Including Volume Purchase of Teradyne Test Systems - BusinessWire
8:31 AM ET May 17, 2004 - [TSM] TSMC Joins the X Initiative - PR Newswire
5:50 AM ET May 17, 2004 - [UMC] Foreign investors sell net 49.9 mln shares of Taiwan's UMC today - Xinhua Financial News
5:13 AM ET May 17, 2004 - [TSM] Taiwan's TSMC buys equipment worth 1.11 bln twd from Japan's Dainippon Screen - Xinhua Financial News
10:47 PM ET May 16, 2004 - [TSM] Taiwan's TSMC declines comment on reported May B/B ratio - Xinhua Financial News
9:45 PM ET May 16, 2004 - [UMC] Taiwan's UMC buys back 28 mln shares at avg price 27.23 twd each - Xinhua Financial News
9:42 PM ET May 16, 2004 - [UMC] Taiwan's UMC buys machinery from ASML Hong Kong, LAM Research, SEZ Singapore - Xinhua Financial News
9:07 AM ET May 14, 2004 - [TSM] TSMC Approved to Set up 8-inch Wafer Plant in Shanghai - SinoCast
4:14 AM ET May 14, 2004 - [TSM] Taiwan's TSMC buys back 9 mln shares at avg 55.12 twd today - Xinhua Financial News
10:18 PM ET May 13, 2004 - [TSM] Taiwan's TSMC buys machinery from Applied Materials for 639.81 mln twd - Xinhua Financial News
List narrowed down to LISTED US stocks (no portal stocks)
The list is much shorter - only 7 stocks:
ADVANCED SEMICONDUCTOR ENGINEERING INC. - ASX - NYSE
AU OPTRONICS CORP. - AUO - NYSE
CHUNGHWA TELECOM CO., LTD. - CHT - NYSE
MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL COMPANY LIMITED - MXICY - NASDAQ
SILICONWARE PRECISION IND., CO. LTD. - SPIL - NASDAQ
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. - TSM - NYSE
UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORPORATION - UMC - NYSE
From Bank of New York web site - you can run a list of ADRs for any country here:
http://160.254.123.37/dr_directory.jsp
Also available as Excel spreadsheet...
Bank of New York - DR Directory
Country: Taiwan
DR ISSUE SYMBOL CUSIP EXCH RATIO_ADR:ORD COUNTRY INDUSTRY REGION DEPOSIT S/U EFF._DATE
ACCTON TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION - 144A ATHYYP 00437R103 PORTAL 1:2 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia BNY S Feb 10, 1997
ACCTON TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION - REG S -- 00437R202 -- 1:2 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia BNY S Feb 10, 1997
ACER INCORPORATED - 144A AIRPP 004434106 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Mar 27, 2002
ACER INCORPORATED - REG S -- 004434205 -- 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Mar 27, 2002
ADI CORPORATION '144A' ADRPP 00089Q106 PORTAL 1:20 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Sep 28, 1995
ADI CORPORATION 'REG S' -- Y0012X114 -- 1:20 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Sep 28, 1995
ADVANCED SEMICONDUCTOR ENGINEERING INC. ASX 00756M404 NYSE 1:5 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Sep 27, 2000
AMBIT MICROSYSTEMS CORPORATION - 144A AMBRP 02318T109 PORTAL 1:2 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia CIT S Jan 08, 2002
AMBIT MICROSYSTEMS CORPORATION - REG S -- 02318T208 -- 1:2 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia CIT S Jan 08, 2002
ASIA CEMENT CORPORATION 144A ASIACYP 04515P104 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Building Materials Asia BNY S Jun 01, 1992
ASUSTEK COMPUTER INC. - 144A ASURP 04648R100 PORTAL 1:1 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S May 30, 1997
ASUSTEK COMPUTER INC. - REG S -- 04648R209 -- 1:1 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S May 30, 1997
AU OPTRONICS CORP. AUO 002255107 NYSE 1:10 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S May 29, 2002
AURORA CORPORATION - 144A AUGPP 051604304 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Jan 27, 1995
AURORA CORPORATION - REG S -- 051604205 -- 1:10 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Jan 27, 1995
BENQ CORPORATION - 144A ACMRP 082301102 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Feb 21, 2001
BENQ CORPORATION - REG S -- 082301201 -- 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Feb 21, 2001
CATHAY FINANCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. - 144A CTYHYPC 14915V106 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Insurance Asia BNY S Jun 14, 2002
CATHAY FINANCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. - REG S -- 14915V205 -- 1:10 Taiwan Insurance Asia BNY S Jun 14, 2002
CHI MEI OPTOELECTRONICS CORP - 144A CHIMFPC 167064104 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia MGT S Oct 24, 2003
CHI MEI OPTOELECTRONICS CORP - REG S -- 167064203 -- 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia MGT S Oct 24, 2003
CHIA HSIN CEMENT CORP. -- Y1329H115 -- 1:10 Taiwan Building Materials Asia MGT S May 26, 1993
CHINA DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL HOLDING CORP. REG S -- 168908101 -- 1:20 Taiwan Banks Asia BNY S Jun 14, 2002
CHINA STEEL CORPORATION - 144A CSRPP 169417102 PORTAL 1:20 Taiwan Mining & Metals Asia CIT S May 29, 1992
CHINA STEEL CORPORATION - REG S -- 003768317 -- 1:20 Taiwan Mining & Metals Asia CIT S May 29, 1992
CHUNGHWA PICTURE TUBES - 144A CPTRP 17133M204 PORTAL 1:25 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Oct 08, 2003
CHUNGHWA PICTURE TUBES - REG S -- 17133M303 -- 1:25 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Oct 08, 2003
CHUNGHWA TELECOM CO., LTD. CHT 17133Q205 NYSE 1:10 Taiwan Fixed Line Comm. Asia BNY S Jul 17, 2003
CMC MAGNETICS CORPORATION - 144A CMCRP 125711101 PORTAL 1:20 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Oct 03, 2003
CMC MAGNETICS CORPORATION - REG S -- 125711200 -- 1:20 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Oct 03, 2003
COMPAL ELECTRONICS, INC. - 144A CMPLGSP 20440Y309 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia BNY S Nov 20, 2000
COMPAL ELECTRONICS, INC. - REG S -- 20440Y200 -- 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia BNY S Nov 20, 2000
COMPAL ELECTRONICS, INC. - REG S -- 20440Y861 -- 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia BNY S Sep 12, 2003
D-LINK CORPORATION - 144A DLRPP 23323A109 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia CIT S Sep 18, 1998
D-LINK CORPORATION - REG S -- 23323A208 -- 1:5 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia CIT S Sep 18, 1998
ENLIGHT CORPORATION - REG S -- 015585897 -- 1:25 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia BNY S Dec 11, 2002
EVERGREEN MARINE CORP (TAIWAN) LTD - 144A EVRPP 300246105 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Industrial Transport Asia CIT S Aug 02, 1996
EVERGREEN MARINE CORP (TAIWAN) LTD - REG S -- 300246204 -- 1:10 Taiwan Industrial Transport Asia CIT S Aug 02, 1996
FAR EASTERN TEXTILE LTD. - 144A FEDSRP 307331207 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Textiles & Apparel Asia BNY S Oct 19, 1999
FAR EASTERN TEXTILE LTD. - REG S -- 307331306 -- 1:10 Taiwan Textiles & Apparel Asia BNY S Oct 19, 1999
FIRST FINANCIAL HOLDING - 144A FFHLY 32021V109 PORTAL 1:20 Taiwan Banks Asia CIT S Jul 24, 2003
FIRST FINANCIAL HOLDING - REG S -- 32021V208 -- 1:20 Taiwan Banks Asia CIT S Jul 24, 2003
FUBON GROUP CO. LTD. - 144A FUBRP 359515103 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Insurance Asia CIT S Apr 16, 1998
FUBON GROUP CO. LTD. - REG S -- 359515202 -- 1:10 Taiwan Insurance Asia CIT S Apr 16, 1998
GIGA-BYTE TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. - 144A GBTRP 37517K103 PORTAL 1:4 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Jul 17, 2000
GIGA-BYTE TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. - REG S -- 37517K202 -- 1:4 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Jul 17, 2000
GVC CORPORATION - 144A GVCCF 36237Y104 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Apr 03, 1995
GVC CORPORATION - REG S -- Y2961S120 -- 1:5 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Apr 03, 1995
HANNSTAR DISPLAY CORPORATION - 144A HANRP 410698104 PORTAL 1:20 Taiwan Technology Services Asia CIT S Jul 22, 2003
HANNSTAR DISPLAY CORPORATION - REG S -- 410698203 -- 1:20 Taiwan Technology Services Asia CIT S Jul 22, 2003
HIGH TECH COMPUTER CORP. - 144A HTCRP 42980M107 PORTAL 1:4 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Nov 20, 2003
HIGH TECH COMPUTER CORP. - REG S -- 42980M206 -- 1:4 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Nov 20, 2003
HOCHENG CORPORATION - 144A HOCH 434141107 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Building Materials Asia CIT S Jun 29, 1994
HON HAI PRECISION INDUSTRY - REG S -- 438090201 -- 1:2 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Oct 07, 1999
HON HAI PRECISION INDUSTRY CO, LTD - 144A HHGPP 438090102 PORTAL 1:2 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Oct 07, 1999
LITE-ON TECHNOLOGY CORP. - 144A LIRPP 536759103 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Sep 25, 1996
LITE-ON TECHNOLOGY CORP. - REG S -- 536759202 -- 1:10 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Sep 25, 1996
MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD. - 144A NONE 556103794 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Feb 07, 2002
MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL COMPANY LIMITED MXICY 556103109 NASDAQ 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S May 01, 1996
MICROELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY INC. - 144A METQYP 59506P208 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia BNY S Dec 20, 2001
MICROELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY INC. - REG S -- Y60361113 -- 1:5 Taiwan Communications Tech. Asia BNY S Dec 20, 2001
MOSEL VITELIC INC. - 144A MSVTY 619539307 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Sep 09, 1999
MOSEL VITELIC INC. - REG S -- 619539406 -- 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Sep 09, 1999
NANYA TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION - 144A NANRP 630247104 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Jul 17, 2003
NANYA TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION - REG S -- 630247203 -- 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Jul 17, 2003
POWERCHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORP. - 144A PWSMYP 73931M102 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Oct 21, 1999
POWERCHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORP. - REG S -- 73931M201 -- 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Oct 21, 1999
PREMIER IMAGE TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION - 144A PITCYP 74050A101 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Leisure Goods & Svcs Asia BNY S Sep 14, 2000
PREMIER IMAGE TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION - REG S -- 74050A200 -- 1:5 Taiwan Leisure Goods & Svcs Asia BNY S Sep 14, 2000
PROMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. - 144A PROTFPC 74343C104 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S May 17, 2002
PROMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. - REG S -- 74343C203 -- 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S May 17, 2002
QUANTA COMPUTER INC. - 144A QCIRP 74762X308 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Nov 26, 2003
QUANTA COMPUTER INC. - REG S -- 74762X407 -- 1:5 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Nov 26, 2003
QUANTA DISPLAY INDUSTRIES - 144A QDIRP 74762V104 PORTAL 1:20 Taiwan Adv. Indust. Equip. Asia CIT S Oct 02, 2003
QUANTA DISPLAY INDUSTRIES - REG S -- 74762V203 -- 1:20 Taiwan Adv. Indust. Equip. Asia CIT S Oct 02, 2003
REALTEK SEMICONDUCTOR CORP. - 144A RLTKGDS 756063103 PORTAL 1:4 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Jan 24, 2002
REALTEK SEMICONDUCTOR CORP. - REG S -- 756063202 -- 1:4 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Jan 24, 2002
RITEK CORPORATION - 144A RKCPRP 767767205 PORTAL 1:2 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia BNY S Oct 07, 1999
RITEK CORPORATION - REG S -- 767767304 -- 1:2 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia BNY S Oct 07, 1999
SAMPO CORPORATION - REG S -- 79587U306 -- 1:20 Taiwan HomeConstruc&Furnish Asia BNY S Nov 17, 2003
SILICON INTEGRATED SYSTEMS CORPORATION - REG S -- 82706A102 -- 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Dec 23, 2002
SILICONWARE PRECISION IND., CO. LTD. SPIL 827084864 NASDAQ 1:5 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Jun 02, 2000
SILICONWARE PRECISION IND.,CO. LTD. GDR -- Y7934R117 -- 1:5 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Oct 01, 1995
STANDARD FOODS CORPORATION, 144A STFXYP 853407104 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Food Asia BNY S Jun 10, 1997
STANDARD FOODS CORPORATION, REG S -- 853407203 -- 1:5 Taiwan Food Asia BNY S Jun 10, 1997
SUNPLUS TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD - REG S -- 86764M205 -- 1:2 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Mar 08, 2001
SUNPLUS TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. - 144A SNPLYP 86764M106 PORTAL 1:2 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Mar 08, 2001
SYNNEX TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL CORP. - 144A SYNRP 87161A109 PORTAL 1:4 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Jul 03, 1997
SYNNEX TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL CORP. - REG S -- 87161A208 -- 1:4 Taiwan Tech.Hardware&Equip. Asia CIT S Jul 03, 1997
SYSTEX CORPORATION - 144A SYSXYP 87203M103 PORTAL 1:3 Taiwan Technology Services Asia BNY S Jun 16, 2000
SYSTEX CORPORATION - REG S -- 87203M202 -- 1:3 Taiwan Technology Services Asia BNY S Jun 16, 2000
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. TSM 874039100 NYSE 1:5 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Oct 14, 1997
TECO ELECTRIC & MACHINERY CO., LTD. - 144A TCEMYP 878757103 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia BNY S Mar 20, 1997
TECO ELECTRIC & MACHINERY CO., LTD. - REG S -- 878757202 -- 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia BNY S Mar 20, 1997
TUNG HO STEEL ENTERPRISE CORPORATION - 144A THSGG 899732101 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Mining & Metals Asia BNY S Apr 16, 2003
TUNTEX DISTINCT CORPORATION 144A TDCNY 89978R309 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Chemicals Asia BNY S Apr 25, 1994
UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORPORATION UMC 910873207 NYSE 1:5 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia CIT S Sep 21, 2000
WALSIN LIHWA GDR WALPP 933133100 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia DB S Oct 03, 1995
WINBOND ELECTRONICS CORPORATION - 144A WINGYP 972657100 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Jan 28, 1999
WINBOND ELECTRONICS CORPORATION - REG S -- 972657209 -- 1:10 Taiwan Semiconductors Asia BNY S Jan 28, 1999
WINTEK CORPORATION - 144A WNTKYP 975733106 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Adv. Indust. Equip. Asia BNY S Nov 14, 2002
WINTEK CORPORATION - REG S -- 975733205 -- 1:5 Taiwan Adv. Indust. Equip. Asia BNY S Nov 14, 2002
YAGEO CORPORATION YARPP 984326108 PORTAL 1:5 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Sep 26, 1994
YAGEO CORPORATION -- Y9723R118 -- 1:5 Taiwan Elec.Component&Equip Asia CIT S Sep 26, 1994
YANGMING MARINE TRANSPORT CORP. - 144A YMTCY 984749101 PORTAL 1:10 Taiwan Industrial Transport Asia CIT S Nov 14, 1996
YANGMING MARINE TRANSPORT CORP. - REG S -- 984749200 -- 1:10 Taiwan Industrial Transport Asia CIT S Nov 14, 1996
Pretty good web site with ADR/ADS links and "Top 20" ADR stocks listed for India, China, Japan.
http://www.stocksabroad.com/stocks.html
Posting research here as I go.
(iHub makes a nice blog)
Track TWII and components here with these links on Yahoo:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TWII&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^TWII
Easy to find, but for quick reference, I'll add this to the header later.
Yahoo Taiwan News Link:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/fc?cid=34&tmpl=fc&in=World&cat=Taiwan
REUTERS White House rebukes China, vows to help Taiwan [DJHTDMY]
Monday May 17 2004 8:50 pm EDT
WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - The White House rebuked
China on Monday for threatening Taiwan and promised to fulfill
its obligations to aid in the island's defense.
The U.S. warning was issued after China, just days before
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian starts his second term,
threatened to crush any steps towards independence "firmly and
thoroughly at any cost."
"We reject those portions of the statement that threaten
the use of force to resolve differences between Beijing and
Taipei," a senior Bush administration official said.
"Threats to use force have no place in civilized
international discourse, and Beijing merely hurts its own case
by using them," the official added. "Such comments are
especially unhelpful at this delicate time, and they
necessitate that we firmly restate our intention to fulfill our
obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act."
China has urged the United States to drop the Taiwan
Relations Act, the law that mandates Washington to supply
Beijing's archrival with defensive weapons.
Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province to be reunited
with the mainland, by force if necessary.
Beijing and Taipei have been diplomatic rivals since 1949,
when Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek lost a civil war on
the mainland, fled to the island and set up a government there.
The United States has urged China and Taiwan to ease
tensions through dialogue.
"The United States believes that cross-strait dialogue is
essential to preserving peace and stability in the region and
we welcome all actions on both sides that promote it," the
official said.
Chen has been testing Beijing's patience with plans to hold
a referendum on a new constitution in 2006 and adopt it in
2008. He says the new constitution is to deepen democracy in
Taiwan, but China sees it as a formal declaration of
statehood.
((Reporting by Adam Entous, editing by Mike Rhea; Reuters
Messaging: adam.entous.reuters.com@reuters.net; +1
202-898-8300, fax +1 202-898-8300))
18May04 00:41 GMT
Source RTRS Reuters News
From CBS Marketwatch........
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist= yhoo&guid=%7B6DCA9667%2D54D9%2D49CF%2D9D6D%2D9354CA9967AB%7D
Long weekend. Unable to prepare ADR list due to family issues, but will be spening time on that Monday night.
Meanwhile, the crap going on in the world seems to continue to drag on markets everywhere. India seems to me the story in Asia right now. A Japan bank that was supposed to turn a profit posted a loss due to bad lons, and the Nikkei is on the down side again Monday.
I am amused by the pumpers on the SPIL board who bought what they thought was a bottom last week. Taiwan stocks are going lower, no doubt about it. But there are day trade opportunities. Look for white daily candles in succession, people bidding up intraday; that may continue for while as people seek the bottom. Might be worth considering a long in the morning to close end of day, and short at the close of the day and holding overnight. Just a thought.
More later.
More from the Taipei Times
BLOOMBERG
Friday, May 14, 2004,Page 11
Stocks declined yesterday as exporters, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) and United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電), fell on concern that a rise in US borrowing costs may hurt demand for their products.
Transportation companies such as Evergreen Marine Corp (長榮海運) fell on the prospect that higher crude-oil prices may reduce profits.
Shippers also dropped after China rejected Taiwan's proposal to let them sail directly between the two sides with goods from third countries.
"Rising oil prices exacerbated concern that central banks worldwide now have another reason to raise rates," said Celine Chiang (江宜津), a fund manager at Ta Chong Investment Trust Corp (大眾投信).
The TAIEX fell 40.70, or 0.7 percent, to 5,918.09. More than three stocks declined for every one that gained.
TSMC, the world's largest supplier of made-to-order computer chips, fell 0.9 percent to NT$57. Rival UMC fell 1.1 percent to NT$27.70.
Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技), the nation's largest maker of computer-memory chips, fell 3.2 percent to NT$23.90. Nanya plans to sell 440 million new shares, valued at NT$10.9 billion, to finance a venture with Infineon Technologies AG. The stock may be sold at home and overseas as depositary receipts or convertible bonds, vice president Pai Pei-lin (白培霖) said.
Evergreen Marine, Asia's largest container shipping company by fleet size, fell 7 percent to NT$26.60. Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp (陽明海運), the country's second-largest container shipper, fell 6.2 percent to NT$28.60.
This story has been viewed 144 times.
I'm no expert here, but I hope there are some wise people who can share some thoughts. I will prepare a list of Taiwan ADRs over the weekend. And any market news I can glean on Sunday night.
I lost a lot on SPIL also, but sold back in February. So you are not alone.
Great idea Worm. I just sold my SPIL yesterday after suffering severe losses. If we can make some sense of of this Taiwan stock malaise, perhaps I can get back in at a lower price if it appears the Taiwan market finally pulls out of this funk. (SPIL down another 5+% today.)
Good idea, Dr. . . . .... thanks for tracking this separately .... you've got my attention to follow you and this idea.
good luck to all !!!
Nice. Found an editorial on the subject on that site already:
Investors shouldn't fret about shares slide
By Ku Lai庫賴
Friday, May 14, 2004,Page 8
Taiwan's stock market recently plunged: The TAIEX reached 6,912.09 points during trading on April 22, but it later dropped for six consecutive business days from April 26 to May 3. The index later fell below 6,000 points. As the index slid over 1,000 points within such a short period, the wealth of tens of thousands of people was again miserably "redistributed." Popular sectors such as TFT-LCD, DRAM, basic raw materials, integrated financial institutions and real estate seem to have become hot potatoes overnight.
Now, panic investors have three worries: The "appreciation effect" caused by the continuous appreciation of the US dollar, the "Wen effect" (溫氏效應), triggered by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's (溫家寶) remarks, and the "independence effect" due to people's concern that a war may break out across the Taiwan Strait if Taiwan declares independence.
Although many famous stock market analysts have urged investors to reduce their investment in shares at the moment, I personally believe that this is another great opportunity for them to buy cheap shares.
Let us take a good look at the international foreign exchange market. The euro has been an early index for currency appreciation and depreciation. Its value has not dipped to new lows since April 20, and it's in fact rising gradually. How many Taiwanese shares and New Taiwan (NT) dollars exactly will foreign investors sell due to the expected appreciation of the US dollar? The development of the euro serves as a reference index.
Moreover, although the "Wen effect" is very powerful, the so-called "macro-economic control policy" was quickly proposed before Wen's visit to Europe and the annual "Golden Week," a week-long Chinese vacation.
Because of its strong impact, the policy has immediately become a global issue and has even alleviated international pressure on the Chinese yuan to appreciate. I therefore believe that it's unlikely that Wen will take other drastic moves in the near future.
As for cross-strait relations, the governments on the each side of the Taiwan Strait have placed their hopes in the US. Although the cross-strait situation is tense, nothing is going to happen. Investors should not be nervous.
In the past, people said that "institutional investors" were the stabilizing force in the market. But this has been completely contradicted by Taiwan's situation in recent years. Foreign investors and asset managers seem just like "retail investors" in the 21st Century. They always buy shares blindly whenever the TAIEX jumps, and sell them whenever the index drops. These young managers or analysts have not even seen one or two stock market cycles, and their method of trading shares according to rumor is exactly like that of retail investors. Since they do not hesitate to buy or sell shares, drastic ups and downs in the market seem to be inevitable.
The investment value of many shares has already become clear after the recent sharp decline. The average "price-earnings ratio" (P/E ratio) of Taiwanese shares is about 12. The share prices are the cheapest in Asia. As for Taiwan's listed companies, their books are considered transparent, and their businesses are mostly international with a high mobility. The risk is therefore limited if you purchase cheap shares with a good track record.
If you want to have more money in your pocket, the most important principle is not to follow the crowd. Investors should zealously embrace "blue chip" shares which attract more stable investment, have a relatively low turnover rate, and are about to be traded ex-rights and ex-dividend as well.
Ku Lai is a columnist for Win-Win Weekly
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2004/05/14/2003155428
Stolen from Yahoo poster:
Forecast
Apr 27th 2004
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Forecast
Country Forecast Taiwan
Sub price: US $970.00 Single issue: US $510.00
Five-year political, policy and economic forecast for each country
Business environment rankings to compare the attractiveness of different markets
Comparable coverage of 60 countries (27 OECD plus major emerging markets) plus regional overviews
Click here to buy the complete Country Forecast from the EIU Store
The outlook for the political scene in Taiwan is extremely uncertain, both in the immediate term and for the remainder of the 2004-05 forecast period. This largely reflects the inconclusive result of the presidential election in March. The incumbent, Chen Shui-bian, was re-elected, but by a margin of just 0.2%, and a recount is likely in the coming days. If, as seems likely, the result stands, it will trigger changes in the leadership of the opposition "pan blue" alliance of the Kuomintang (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP). Despite the crisis, GDP will grow by 5.6% in 2004 and by 4.9% in 2005. Consumer prices will rise by an average of 0.8% in 2004-05, and the Taiwan dollar will continue to appreciate gradually against the US dollar. The current-account surplus, although declining, will remain substantial.
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Mr Chen's victory in the presidential election remains controversial. As a consequence, the short-term political outlook will be overshadowed by the KMT's efforts to overturn the election result.
Economic policy outlook
Until the political scene stabilises, the government will have difficulty focusing its attention on economic policymaking, particularly as the pan-blue alliance enjoys a majority in parliament. Attempts at reform will continue to suffer during the remainder of 2004 as, even if the current political impasse is overcome, the major parties will switch their attention to the parliamentary election scheduled for December 2004.
Economic forecast
A continued improvement in the global economy this year will boost Taiwan's export sector, although the net contribution from foreign trade to GDP growth will be marginal. This reflects our assumption that a strong recovery in domestic demand will raise import growth significantly. Overall, the improved outlook for the local economy has resulted in the Economist Intelligence Unit raising its forecast for GDP growth this year to 5.6%
This link to Taipei Times might be helpful for you.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News
Taiwan market news right now:
REUTERS Taiwan stocks down on worries over foreign selling
TAIPEI, May 14 (Reuters) - Taiwan stocks fell in early trade
on Friday, with foreign investor favourites in the tech sector
like Powerchip <5346.TWO> leading the retreat on fears a U.S.
rate hike will trigger a pullout of funds from Asia.
The TAIEX <.TWII> share index fell 1.47 percent to 5,831.36,
retreating toward Monday's 2004 low of 5,825.05 after a
two-session rebound ran out of steam in the previous session.
"Even though U.S. stocks are relatively stable, there are
still worries about foreign capital flowing out of Japan, Korea
and Taiwan after a U.S. interest rate rise," said Hotung
Securities research chief Albert Lin.
Lin said the market could rebound if technical support from
Monday's seven-month intraday low of 5,704 held firm over the
next few sessions, however.
Memory chip makers tumbled in heavy trade, giving back more
of a strong advance this year that had been powered by an
unexpected increase in product prices.
Taiwan's biggest memory chip firm, Powerchip Semiconductor
was the most actively traded stock and lost 6.58 percent. The
issue had jumped 160 percent from mid-December to mid-April,
but have since lost more than 25 percent.
Investors fear personal computer firms may recoil from the
high prices and cut memory purchases. Shares of top PC maker
Dell Inc <DELL.O> fell 1.8 percent in after-hours trade
overnight as high memory prices eroded first-quarter profitability.
Display panel maker Chi Mei Optoelectronics <3009.TW> was not
spared from the retreat even though the issue was added to
Morgan Stanley Capital International's (MSCI's) closely-tracked
indices on Wednesday. Its shares dropped 3.65 percent to T$66.
However, Shin Kong Financial Holdings <2888.TW>, which was
also added to MSCI's indices this week, managed a 0.72 percent
rise, as banking and industrial shares took lighter losses as
foreign investors are relatively underweight in those sectors.
(US$1 = T$33.7)
Taiwan economy:
REUTERS RPT-POLL-Taiwan Q1 GDP seen up 5.5 pct from year-ago [DJFFTVX]
(Repeating story from May 12)
By Michael Kramer
TAIPEI, May 12 (Reuters) - Taiwan is expected to post its
fastest quarterly economic growth since 2000, as the trade-led
economy's exports surged to a near record high and long-stagnant domestic demand revved into gear.
Data to be issued on Friday is expected to show first quarter
gross domestic product grew 5.5 percent over the year-earlier
period, according to the median estimate of a Reuters survey of
10 local and foreign economists.
That would be the strongest year-on-year rise since the third
quarter of 2000, when Taiwan's tech industry was basking in the
glow of an Internet-led export boom. It would also beat the
government's official forecast of 5.16 percent growth.
The cabinet's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and
Statistics will release its first quarter economic report at
around 5:00 p.m. (0900 GMT) on Friday, along with a slew of
forecasts for the rest of the year.
Economists say trade has been the main driver behind Taiwan's
speedy economic growth, with first quarter exports coming within a sliver of a new record.
The performance of exporters is all the more impressive
because the first quarter is traditionally the beginning of a
slowdown in shipments after the year-end pre-Christmas boom.
The export charge has been led by tech firms like world No. 3
display screen maker AU Optronics <AUO.N> <2409.TW>, which posted record quarterly revenues on demand for gadgets like LCD
televisions and camera phones.
DOMESTIC DEMAND RISES
However, analysts say the island's domestic demand, which had
been battered by shrinking wages, record high unemployment and
slack utilisation in manufacturing capacity in the past two
years, is also making a solid contribution.
"Domestic consumption is far from perfect, but you can
certainly see that the worst is over," said HSBC economist
Arthur Woo.
"The reality is that the consumer is in much better shape,"
He said. "Industry is also investing more because utilisation
rates are high, and also because they underinvested last year."
Taiwan's imports also reached a record high in March, with
capital equipment purchases surging 34.6 percent year-on-year, a sign that exporters are preparing to boost production.
Unadjusted consumer prices rose an average 0.51 percent from a year earlier in the January-March period after three years of deflation.
A more confident consumer convinced Taiwan's largest realtor
Sin Yi Realty <9940.TW> to forecast Taipei property prices would show their fastest growth in a decade this year. While the island's licensed dealer for Toyota's <7293.TW> Lexus brand says Taiwan is the fastest-growing Asian market for the luxury sedans.
However, Taiwan's comeback from the 2001 downturn has largely
been powered by demand from China, the island's largest market,
for local electronics, petrochemicals and steel. But that source of growth now lies in doubt after Beijing pledged to cool economic growth.
Premier Wen Jiabao said in April that China needed forceful
steps to ease inflationary pressure. At the same time, financial markets are increasingly concerned over a likely interest rate hike in the United States, Taiwan's second-largest export market.
"We do expect that Taiwan's economic growth will slow down
over the rest of the year," said Jack Huang, head of economic
research at Taiwan's SinoPac Financial holdings.
Following are forecasts for Taiwan's first quarter quarter
gross domestic product, in percentage change from a year earlier:
Institution GDP
SinoPac Securities 4.50
China Bills 5.45
KGI Securities 5.50
Deutsche Bank 5.50
Taiwan Securities 5.51
Taiwan Institute of Econ. Research 5.52
Chunghwa Institute of Econ. Research 5.58
Goldman Sachs 5.70
ING Financial Markets 6.00
HSBC 6.10
_______________________________________________________________
Median 5.52
ok I'll be first:
Taiwan market sell off.... OPPORTUNITY?
This could be huge. There is an election re-count in progress in that country that is supposed to be finished on May 20th. Geopolitics is killing their market, apparently. Also, word is that the China government is planning to sell Taiwan securities to help balance their budget - another killer I would imagine. I read this on Bloomberg last week.
And it's now Friday over there and....the Taiwan Weighted Index is selling off like mad:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TWII&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
Could it double bottom Friday OR sell off MORE next week????
EWT = Taiwan Stock Market ETF
SPIL, IMOS, TSM, there are dozens of possibilities. This deserves some attention. I am AWFUL at catching a bottom on stocks, and we are half a world away from them and can't trade ADRs in real time over here, but this COULD be enormous.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$TWII,uu[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pb144!b200][vc60][iUa12,26,9!L....
^^ I ran the fibonacci numbers on the current chart on the Taiwan Index, and if you believe 5704.21 will hold on the 52-week, it will be easy enough to see resistance on the way back up. But I am no expert.
Anyone want to make a stab at how to approach this? This just smells like cash to me........
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Taiwan Stock Exchange:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Stock_Exchange
Taiwan Stock Exchange
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation (TSEC) is a financial institution, located in Taiwan, Republic of China, located at 17 Po-Ai Road, Taipei, Taiwan. The TSEC was established in 1961 and began operating as a stock exchange on 9 February 1962.
The current chairman of the TSEC is Mr. Sean Chen.
Taiwan Stock Exchange Official Site:
http://www.tse.com.tw/ch/index.php
Yahoo charts (TWII is real time - SSE is not):
,
,
Taiwan specific News Link:
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/taiwan.html
http://www.worldjournal.com/wj-twnews.php (Chinese Version)
HK: Hang Seng Index
http://www.hsi.com.hk/
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong.html
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/china.html
Chinese Stocks(in Chinese):
http://www.worldjournal.com/pages/fn_asianmkts
Key Issues: US Eastern Daylight Time = 12 hours opposite of Taipei
UTC/GMT Offset Standard time zone: UTC/GMT +8 hours
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=241
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/beautiful-mandy
Reason for Live http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut3AhmclYNc&NR=1
Bo_Event_薄熙来 http://ap.ntdtv.com/b5/20120311/video/90843.html
NK_Rocket http://v.ifeng.com/v/cxwx/index.shtml#28c82bd3-5f51-4a9c-ab63-7dbbd0040199
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