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Benchmark price update of Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu, 1.2 SO2........
Is up to $69.15.A new high since Jan 24 2012 high of $68.90
https://www.eia.gov/coal/markets/
ps-weekly change was $66.10 vs $69.15 or $3.05 up.Woowwwww.
"Thermal coal prices hit 6-year high".............
Again and confirmation.
http://www.mining.com/thermal-coal-prices-hit-6-year-high/
Australian Newcastle spot coal prices hit US$120 for 1st time since 2012.....
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/07/03/australian-newcastle-spot-coal-prices-hit-us$120-for-1st-time-since-2012/
Key point:
Thermal coal cargoes for prompt export from Australia's Newcastle port last settled at $120.10 per tonne. That's the highest close since November 2012 and up by 140 percent from record contract lows in late 2015/early 2016.
The boss is buying but about the only one, company and stock will not go anywhere utill they atart making announcements and pushing the stock
Japan's Tohoku Elec, Glencore abandon April-March coal contract talks...........
https://www.reuters.com/article/glencore-coal-japan/update-1-japans-tohoku-elec-glencore-abandon-april-march-coal-contract-talks-idUSL4N1TS1LR
Key points:
* Talks fail as coal prices soar to the highest since 2012 (Adds quotes and background)
Benchmark price of Central Appalachia 12,500 Btu, 1.2 SO2........
Is up to $66.10.A new high since July 9 2013 high of $66.15.
https://www.eia.gov/coal/markets/
The boss is buying.....
39689 shares @$0.02 with ownership update of 12,750,000 shares(27%),a great sign.
Pure speculation on my part.....
Based on rumors of buyback "below 5c" when company is profitable.
When did they announce they were doing a stock buyback of 5 million shares and when were they going to start
"China's Taxing America's Coal Just as It Was Looking to Buy More"....
Trade war update.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/china-s-taxing-america-s-coal-just-as-it-was-looking-to-buy-more
"The retaliatory duties issued by China will tack a 25 percent tariff on several U.S. coal products, including thermal coal, coking coal and coke, according to a statement on the Ministry of Finance’s website. The start date for the duties have yet to be determined."
One-two punch..........
Profitability of $100K+,5 million shares buyback,should break the conundrum.
ps-I believe management discontinued its infamous "self-inflicted" practice few quarters back,is a great sign and a turning point.This dog is back without flea.Wolff.Wolff.
I own many shares in the company, like the numbers but they are only making announcements every 3 months, To build the interest they need to make more, Maybe the will in the future but dont see the stock going anywhere until they do, But if that happens the stock will really take off
"China tariffs hit Trump heartland where it hurts – in American agriculture and energy"....
Trade war update.
"Another US$16 billion in goods, including coal and oil, will be subject to tariffs later."
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2151166/china-tariffs-hit-trump-heartland-where-it-hurts
COAL
The coal tariffs strike at the heart of Trump’s energy agenda. Since he was elected, the president has been trying to make good on a campaign promise to revive America’s coal industry. They also come as US miners have grown increasingly dependent on foreign markets for growth. US coal exports jumped by 61 per cent in 2017 as shipments to Asia more than doubled.
A few weeks ago, China was looking at buying more from the US. While it is pursuing a long-term goal of using less of the fossil fuel, the country still produces, consumes and imports more than any other nation. It bought 271 million tonnes from overseas last year, according to customs data. The US exported about 2.9 million tonnes to China, data from the Energy Information Administration show.
The total value of US coal exported to China last year was about US$395 million, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. About 90 per cent was metallurgical coal, which is used to make steel.
You may be right....
But the rumor is "buyback below 5c" once the company is profitable.Any guess what the net income of next q is??
ps-screaming buy at 2c.chiiiieeeeppppppppppp.wooowww.
The stock is not going anywhere until the company decideds to get some brokers and people buying up the stock involved, until then it will stay at .02 to .03
The coal prices($64.15)* are on fire......
Matched or exceeded 2013($63)/2014($60) historical prices,when txhg q revenues peaked at $1800K(4q,13)/$1236K(3q,14).Will peak q revenue this year tops $1236K??I believe it is VERY LIKELY and the $1236K may be TOO CONSERVATIVE.
* Northern Appalachia Coal price
A bit more:
2013 cost=68% of revenue
2014 cost=73%
......
......
2018,1q cost=86%
2018,2q cost=81%
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTIONS:
2018,e3Q cost=??
2018,e4Q cost=????
Again,I believe the trend is on our side,moving DOWN toward the 75% mark.$$$$$$$$ knocking on the door.Wooowwww.
This stock is flying low under radar for sure.
“The ongoing bull market in coal has been greatly under-appreciated and is not over yet,” the Jefferies analysts noted.
https://www.ft.com/content/704554a2-6d51-11e8-92d3-6c13e5c92914
Included:
1. Thermal coal, tagged the least-loved major commodity by analysts, is defying sceptics, with prices rising to the highest level since 2012 thanks to strong Asian demand.
2. High-grade Australian thermal coal, the benchmark for the vast Asia market, was quoted at $112.60 a tonne on Monday by Argus Media.
3. “A lack of investment in new mines, depletion of existing mines, and under-investment in infrastructure have been key factors in coal’s resurgence, and most mining companies are unwilling to invest in new coal capacity due to demand risks and negative investor sentiment regarding coal,” analysts at Jefferies noted.
4. “The ongoing bull market in coal has been greatly under-appreciated and is not over yet,” the Jefferies
........
........
US coal production expected to total 756.2 mil st in 2018: EIA........
Thermal coal export volumes are estimated at 37.8 million st in 2018 and 33 million st in 2019, down from 41.7 million st in 2017.
The remaining 55 million st are expected to be metallurgical coal exports in 2018, while 2019 exports are projected at 53 million st. In 2017, the US exported 55.3 million st of met coal.
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/houston/us-coal-production-expected-to-total-7562-mil-21080025
"April US coal exports surge to highest monthly total since 2013"........
"The monthly total was up 17.7% from March and 53.3% higher than the year-ago month...."
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/houston/april-us-coal-exports-surge-to-highest-monthly-21067483
When it rains,it pours..........
"The Chinese government has told several large steel mills to increase their year-on-year import volumes of US met coals, as part of the country’s attempts to narrow its significant trade deficit with the US, sources told S&P Global Platts...."
From:
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinese-government-directs-steelmakers-to-raise-us-coking-coal-imports-sources/
CENTRAL APPALACHIA 12,500 BTU, 1.2 SO2....
Are making new highs since 2014,at $64.15 per short ton.Wooowwwww.
https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL-US-Coal-Prices-by-Region?utm_medium=graph&utm_source=quandl
Government policies before trump impacted this stock to crash. Now Trump policy will have this come back into teens.
"China Offers To Buy $70BN In Farm And Energy Goods"...........
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-05/appease-trump-china-offers-buy-70bn-farm-and-energy-goods
"involved Chinese companies buying more US soybeans, corn, natural gas, crude oil and coal among other agricultural and energy products....."
If the offer is accepted,50% chance let say,its impact on the US coal exporting industry would be HUGE: a likely 20%-30% growth to all players.Wooowwww.
Virginia coal to China........
A BIG carrot for trump's re-election effort.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/if-china-wants-coal-the-u-s-has-got-coal/
"Sun said coal still represents a major sector in West Virginia’s economy. An increase in American coal imports by China would be beneficial to coal-producing states that voted for U.S. President Donald Trump in the 2016 election amid his promises to revive the struggling industry."
US coal export dynamics is changing.......
"The United States exported 97.0 million short tons (MMst) of coal in 2017, a 61% (36.7 MMst) increase from the 2016 level."
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35852
"Judge strikes down Oakland's ban on shipping coal through port":
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oakland-port-coal-20180515-story.html
ps-Will the arm twisting with China,move the needle back to the export highs of 2012??The prevailing belief that the macro of "death to US coal" has been eroded much and being replaced by "revival of US coal to narrow the trade gap".
One of these days this will pop to 10 cents
"China Considers More U.S. Coal Imports to Cut Deficit" from Bloomberg.........
Key point:
"China this month pledged to increase purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural goods as a way to reduce its $375 billion merchandise trade deficit and diffuse an escalating trade war between the world’s biggest economies."
"More imports by the Asian nation would be a boon for American coal-producing states -- including West Virginia -- that supported Donald Trump’s presidency on the back of his pledge to revive the ailing industry."
"West Virginia was the second-biggest coal producer in the U.S. after Wyoming in 2016, accounting for 11 percent of the nation’s total output, according to the EIA. All of the state’s coal is bituminous with varying sulfur content, and about 75 percent is shipped out to other states and countries."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/china-is-said-to-consider-more-u-s-coal-imports-to-cut-deficit-jhrf6jaz
ps-Once implemented,the impact can be HUGE on US miners and their suppliers.
Got my azz kicked......
OOOOuuuuuccccchhhhh.Someone just unloaded 182K shares and drove the price down to 1.5c.CHIIIEEEEPPPPPPPPP.
ps-buy.buy.buy.wooowww.
Numbers are getting better and better, before the stock goes any where the company really needs to get the word out and make announcements about the contracs and good news about the company, more investors need to get more involvement, it is getting ready to really move.
Insight......
It is simply the recognition management finally have settled down and taking its business serious,nothing more and nothing less. To us shareholders,the downside risk is limited.
Thank you for your response on todays actions.
When I got home from work, I saw the Q, and was excited to look up the stock price, only to look at it and be surprised.
Wow, I feel smarter just from reading this post.
I have been in this stock years, and definitely like your enthusiasm. Thank you for your insight.
Give it time......
Let the market catch up with the fundamental.We don't need much,just few hundred thousand shares buying would do the trick and get the motion going.Until then,more opportunity to add at pe<3.
I’m surprised there’s no buyers on report like this.
A company with good governance is in the making....
Revenue up double digit
Cost down to 80%(of revenue)
Sg&a down to 12%
eps= 4%
Or
3q is more likely than not,continuing this momentum,and eps>5%.
My numbers:
3q eps = .01c(annualized) or pe<2.5 going forward.Wooowwwww.
Revenues for the second fiscal quarter of 2018 were $1,098,590 as compared to $923,403 for the same period in 2017, an increase of approximately 19.0%.
Gross profit during the second fiscal quarter of 2018 was $212,046 compared to $118,439 during the same period in 2017. Gross profit in the current quarter increased by 79.0% when compared to the same period in fiscal 2017.
14
As a percentage of revenue, gross profit increased to 19.3% during the second quarter of fiscal 2018 from 12.8% during the second quarter of fiscal 2017.
During the second fiscal quarter of 2018, we had net income of $47,543 as compared to a net loss of $54,059 for the same period in fiscal 2017.
My numbers are based on past performance + subject adjustments.........
Example:
revenue $1200k,30% q/q,is based/discounted on the 41% revenue increase y/y,2016 vs 2015.
cost $960k,80% of revenue,based on 76% y/y increase,2016 vs 2015,a 4% was added for the higher volume (since 2q 2017) and lower margin(2017=76%,e2018=e80%) model.
sg&a $147k,12% q/q,is based on past 7 q(EXCLUDE WRITE-OFFS).This % has dropped so low,is a reflection of good management,and it is one of the reasons lured me to the stock.
net income=5% 2018,10% 2019
Again
Even if the odds is only 50% of me being right for the above,the payout is so lucrative,if it goes my way in 2018-2019,it can be up as high as 500%(10c+).
My subjective adjustments are influenced by
2016 write-off:
-$156k bad debt
-$275k inventory(not what buying what the customers need)
2017 write-off:
-$7k bad debt
-$30k a/r note
-$134k rack bag(a BLUNDER of the past)
-$64k wage concession
-$24k board expense cut(WOOOOWWWWWWW)
or
The boyz(old men in our case) are not getting any younger,and self-inflicted wounds had been addressed and took care of.The structure of company is good and,with good macro continuing(coal price up to 50% from the 2016 low),
https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL-US-Coal-Prices-by-Region
the wild card is down to one: margin or margin expansion of 5% to put the company right FINALLY.Is it likely?I think so,and this why I am so excited on this calculated wager.
ps-
To make BIG money AVOID being:
'a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.' Oscar Wilde
Just curious how did you come up with those numbers, and if they are close, how do you think the stock will react? TIA
I was gonna ask when the Q was gonna be out? You beat me to it. I like your over all thoughts on your numbers.
My numbers for 2q....
To be out around 4/30/2018.
My guess:
revenue $1200K
cost $960k(80%)
sg&a $147k(12%)
net income $65k-$75k
pe=(eps annualized @0.5c)
No volume or interest right now.
Hopefully soon.
We will see what the numbers are but also have to get some buyers for the stock for it to move much, does not seem like there is much demand there, I want to see the company and stock do well but just no volume at all
Consistant $1.0+ million dollar revenue.........
per Q going forward,with cost and expense under control,and my odds is 80%. The stock price is peanuts,no place to go except UP.This dog is ready.Wolff.Wolff.
wild card...........
Sale may be higher than the 30% q/q I have projected.This could the icing on the cake if margin(=100%-cost) is held above 20%+.
They do not give up and continue to move forward. I know it has been a rough few years. Perhaps they are over the hump now.
All lights are green.....
Before the ER.I am hoping the cost of sale would improve and normalize back below <80%.All other drivers seem to be under control,after 2 years of hard work by the management.Wooowww.
Great analysis. I am in agreement!
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Revenues for the second fiscal quarter of 2018 were $1,098,590 as compared to $923,403 for the same period in 2017, an increase of approximately 19.0%.
Gross profit during the second fiscal quarter of 2018 was $212,046 compared to $118,439 during the same period in 2017. Gross profit in the current quarter increased by 79.0% when compared to the same period in fiscal 2017.
As a percentage of revenue, gross profit increased to 19.3% during the second quarter of fiscal 2018 from 12.8% during the second quarter of fiscal 2017.
During the second fiscal quarter of 2018, we had net income of $47,543 as compared to a net loss of $54,059 for the same period in fiscal 2017.
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