TX Rail Products Inc (TXRP)

[greasemonkeyshoes]

My numbers are based on past performance + subject adjustments.........
Example:
revenue $1200k,30% q/q,is based/discounted on the 41% revenue increase y/y,2016 vs 2015.

cost $960k,80% of revenue,based on 76% y/y increase,2016 vs 2015,a 4% was added for the higher volume (since 2q 2017) and lower margin(2017=76%,e2018=e80%) model.

sg&a $147k,12% q/q,is based on past 7 q(EXCLUDE WRITE-OFFS).This % has dropped so low,is a reflection of good management,and it is one of the reasons lured me to the stock.

net income=5% 2018,10% 2019

Again
Even if the odds is only 50% of me being right for the above,the payout is so lucrative,if it goes my way in 2018-2019,it can be up as high as 500%(10c+).

My subjective adjustments are influenced by
2016 write-off:
-$156k bad debt
-$275k inventory(not what buying what the customers need)

2017 write-off:
-$7k bad debt
-$30k a/r note
-$134k rack bag(a BLUNDER of the past)
-$64k wage concession
-$24k board expense cut(WOOOOWWWWWWW)
or
The boyz(old men in our case) are not getting any younger,and self-inflicted wounds had been addressed and took care of.The structure of company is good and,with good macro continuing(coal price up to 50% from the 2016 low),
https://www.quandl.com/data/EIA/COAL-US-Coal-Prices-by-Region
the wild card is down to one: margin or margin expansion of 5% to put the company right FINALLY.Is it likely?I think so,and this why I am so excited on this calculated wager.

ps-
To make BIG money AVOID being:
'a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.' Oscar Wilde