TREND(WEEKLY)_TRIGGER(DAILY)

[TREND1]

********THIS BOARD IS CLOSED ********
GO TO
NO LOSSES SYSTEM.... #board-11004

[TREND1]

"What if you end up KEEP buying a stock that's headed south, like it gaps down 40% in 1 day like Trend Micro did the other day? "

Comments
Very good point.
That is why I have only traded QID and QLD so far.
What you describe is called in STATS "The Theory of Runs"
If that happens then One must consider taking a loss. IMHO.


Trend Micro = What is SYM ? I will run it.

[Psionic Trader]

What if you end up KEEP buying a stock that's headed south, like it gaps down 40% in 1 day like Trend Micro did the other day?

[TREND1]

BEST

[TREND1]

*****MIKEA_10_28_07

[TREND1]

MIKE_10_28_07

[TREND1]

Currently esignal has 30_Minute Charts back 120 days.
So using 6/1/07 start date now.

They have a BETA that will not post bid-ask, only prices,
it will go back more.

Have data on QID_QLD going back to Mid Jan 2007,
but it is messy.

I plan to post SYSTEM results as MIKE,FROG,SS,others come up with new stocks.
Why?
Looking for good stocks for system.

[Psionic Trader]

how long of a data did you base your case studies on?

[TREND1]

AAPL_30_MINUTE
It was a good buy signal, but it was around 10/12/07 top
in market.
This chart does show how AAPL (making up 10% of QQQQ) keeps
QQQQ going and going.
And a break in AAPL will signal a final start down for
QQQQ. IMHO.
But that is in the future.

[TREND1]

SYSTEM_INDEXES plus a few key stocks I am watching
Interesting results on key stocks
Makes me wonder if I could open up the SELL POINT
and make much more.
.

[TREND1]

**** Where the HELL did you get an idea of NO LOSSES *****
By reading articles from Journal of Finance.

5 Noble winners talking about the random walk in the stock market.
We know the stock market is not a random walk ,
but it is a good place to start.

It costs $40 per year or $3.33 per month.
Journal of Finance
Here of number of papers are written each year.
Many Nobel winners have written here .
If you got the Stats back ground,
it is must reading.
This is where MER, etc get the methods.

PS: the $40 includes the web site and
"ALL" the papers.
GOOD DEEP STUFF
*************Only $40***********
http://www.afajof.org

[TREND1]

NSM_30_MINUTE ( It may take a year of study before I try this one)
.

[TREND1]

SYSTEM_SMH_STOCKS
Y%=%GAIN X (12 months/5 months)....rounding numbers
JLS
Note: With NSM the return would be about 26% per year
with no more then 3 buys(MBUYS)
JLS using twice the money per trade (since MBUYS =3)
would equal 52% per year on $100,000 account.
But one can only estimate the future (g)


.

[TREND1]

*****JLS
Right now

QID (Yearly) = 8.5%X (MBUYS/8) X (12 months/5 months) = 18%

QID (Yearly) = 8.5%X (9/8) X 2.4 = 18%

BUT "MBUYS" will jump to 20 from 9
It will be interesting
and that 40.40 at 31 % RETRACE
vs
the lower % RETRACE for 20 positions

Time will tell how I finally decide to do.
I do not know myself(g)

[TREND1]

JLS

[TREND1]

SYSTEM_STEP_3

[TREND1]

********Start of study to see if I can use MIKE_FROG_SS stocks
in my STSTEM.
Will place important items in IBOX

[TREND1]

My post has been deleted by MIKE on the other board.
So be it
.............

[TREND1]

Let's take UNP for an example
(1) $100,000 account
(2) Margin it to $200,000
(3) As shown buy 1 position and sell it before buying
again
(4) Each trade is $25,000
$250 * 5 completed trades since Sep 17, 2007
$1250/$100,000 = 1.3%

No losses
Only Limit Orders are used.

Big problem is the "possible" BIG draw downs
UNP never uses more then $25,000 at any one time.

[TREND1]

ADI_DAILY
Reasons to cover short before 29.06

[TREND1]

ADI_DAILY
.

[TREND1]

PORT_TREND1
OPEN POSITIONS
****NO REAL MONEY ****
So it means nothing
Start of model
.

[TREND1]

A little true story about fundies.
When I was starting out in the investment world,
I met an Engineer who was a prisoner of WAR and
spent much time as a prisoner of France

Well he showed me how to use fundies
(1) Look for a company that was good fundies.
(2) An airline called united. This is back a few years(g)
(3) He showed me how to buy it around 15 when news was bad.
(4) And sell it around 57 when the news was good.


Translation:
Longer term buy low sell high.

[Psionic Trader]

Thanks, Trend. I'm not really a 100% T/A chartist because I scan for fundies first and afterwards look for entry point via TA... If I end up with some nice freebies, I hold for a while.

Glad to have someone here in these boards to analyze things logically. In fact that's the only way things can make sense to engineers/scientists like us. lol

[frogfan]

not a problem -- just trying to get a better grasp of you spreadsheet...makes perfect sense to me as to what you are including...if only we'd had this spreadhseet last week, I'd be looking like a genious with ISRG & BG hitting targets already and STP, FSLR, and NYX well on their way...

thanks for the explanation and keep up the good work

[TREND1]

frog the study is in mode 1
mode 2 will include portfolios
..
MIKE talked about past history,
as I told him and now tell you
....SORRY...the past is just that HISTORY

Thanks for all your work in finding the charts
Also thanks to SS and Mike , if they see this
.
It is important that we have 3 chartist.IMHO.

[frogfan]

hey I know I've posted an ass load of charts over the past week or two, but one that I am actually playing with my hard earned cash is STP -- posted the chart, and bought on 10/18 -- was hoping you could add it to your chart...my cost basis is $45.60 if you'd like to use it for your calcs.

Not sure when you are trying to start tracking these picks, but aside from STP, I also posted ISRG and NYX. ISRG has already met its target and NYX is on its way -- all 3 were posted on 10/18 -- if you aren't going back that far its cool


That said, GS was The Games pick, I just posted what I saw as break and target, not 100% sure I'd want to play it right now with the credit woes and all...if you want to leave it on to track, its all good, and I'll take it.

Keep up the good work.


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=23794184&txt2find=stp

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=23803412&txt2find=nyx

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=23793535&txt2find=isrg

[frogfan]

hadn't really thought about it...I plan on selling when they all hit the target :)

[TREND1]

frog
How do you plan on getting out ?
(1)STOPS
(2)Selling when general market turns down
(3)Other

[TREND1]

***** REMOVALS
If you decide to remove a stock during market hours,
and I see no reason you would not,
just post it here during market hours

POST
(1)PRICE SOLD
(2)TIME SOLD OR REMOVED (which will be fairly close to the post time)

PS: Why wait for after the close?
That may get you the OPEN

[TREND1]

*******It is time to start thinking about
total gain on portfolio
Example
(1)Given $100,000
(2)Use Margin ?
(3)How many positions do you plan to have?
(4)8 @ $25,000 for $200,000 including margin ?
(5)20 @ $10,000 for $200,000 including margin ?
(6) This is needed because you can not keep on
buying and buying.IMHO
(7)More later.

[TREND1]

******Again let me be clear here
I am doing this work for me.
Trying to determine if chart patterns
are better the my QID_QLD system.

You just see my calculations that I am doing.

[TREND1]

****MIKE FROG SS
I plan to have a end of the month update
which will include "all" positions
both open and closed

That's what my brokers do(g)


PS: And you won't be able to hide your losses
by not removing a stock.

[TREND1]

Changes made
will be in next update

[frogfan]

also, noticed on your chart you had me down for SSL -- that is more of a SS pick, I was just giving my comment for a target the other day -- other than that lovin the info -- i'll try to keep my picks down for ya so we can concentrate on our better charts

[TREND1]

red example for you is
FSLR = 152.90 in high col for TODAY

[TREND1]

OK
The green is no action for awhile
Now Blue which happens all the time
indicates a TICK update.
And a RED flash indicates stocks trading over 52 WEEK high
but when I do a copy chances are you will not see any

RED text in HIGH col = new 52 week high during TODAY

[frogfan]

certain symbols are highlighted gree -- LVS, LPHI, BKR, NGA, etc...is there a significance to this?

[TREND1]

Do not under stand
Please add more data , numbers, col ,etc
also note I just updated again

[frogfan]

question -- what do the green highlighted stocks mean on your spreadsheet?

[TREND1]

8_WEEKLY_INDEXES now updated in IBOX

[TREND1]

MIKE_SUMMARY now updated in IBOX

[JLS]

I use weekly, but not very often.

It's easy for me to see weekly trends on a daily chart.

[TREND1]

JLS
So "you" do not use WEEKLY TREND ?
Just DAILY Chart ?

[JLS]

in SNDK example both WEEKLY and DAILY confirmed ...

Generally speaking, weekly will be sluggish in confirmations because it takes five daily bars to make one weekly bar, and it takes more than one bar to make a trend change. I don't see any logical way around this argument. That was my only point. Specific deviations from general rules don't count, as they can be traps.

I'm holding off on SNDK. Prefer to see trend or pattern forming which gives clues. Going back a year, 41.50 looks like near-term support and 45.50 looks like resistance. I prefer to watch to see if it tests those levels which would make that the new, sideways, trend. I would nibble (bottom fish) at 41.50.

[TREND1]

ADI_WEEKLY

[TREND1]

(6)Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and visa versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest.

Comments:
(1)Should I use the horizontal support line as a STOP LOSS,
since support become resistance ?
(2) Sonnds reasonable.
(3) Any comments before I start programming ?

[TREND1]

Will use ADI_DAILY to work on system.
WHY SYSTEM ?
Because computer programs need exact rules
********************************************
The Descending Triangle
Will use StockChart rules:
Descending Triangle (Continuation)
The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution.



Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more comparable lows form a horizontal line at the bottom. Two or more declining peaks form a descending trend line above that converges with the horizontal line as it descends. If both lines were extended right, the descending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending up from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.

(1)Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the descending triangle is definitely a bearish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important. The robustness of the formation is paramount.
(2)Lower Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance separating the lows and a reaction high between them.
(3)Upper Descending Trend Line: At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between the highs. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid.
(4)Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
(5)Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
(6)Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into resistance and visa versa. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance. Sometimes there will be a return to this newfound resistance level before the down move begins in earnest.
(7)Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout.

[TREND1]

ADI_DAILY

[TREND1]

GOOG_WEEKLY