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CRUDE OIL (USO): As of 7/6/2015 United States Oil Fund (USO) is on an Intermediate-Term Trend Model SELL signal. The Long-Term Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a SELL signal as of 8/28/2014, so our long-term posture is bearish.
USO gapped lower and in the process broke down out of the horizontal trading channel. The only possible 'saving grace' is that Oil prices didn't breakdown which could mean a bounce back up to the top of the trading channel. The bearish configuration of the EMAs and PMO tell us not expect much of a bounce if at all.
"Shaping Our Nation: How Surges of Migration Transformed America and Its Politics" by Michael Barone
http://www.booktv.org/Watch/15093/Shaping+Our+Nation+How+Surges+of+Migration+Transformed+America+and+Its+Politics.aspx
Video on Affordable Care Act
http://www.c-span.org/flvPop.aspx?id=10737442217
Arthur Hill founded ETFInvestmentOutlook.com to give ETF traders and investors an edge using unique breadth charts and timely analysis. Mr. Hill has over 20 years experience in investment research and specializes in technical analysis. He has taught on behalf of the Society of Technical Analysts at the London School of Economics. His work has been published in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine and on the Traders.com Advantage website. Prior to his current position, Mr. Hill was the Chief Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com where he developed much of the site's education center.
Work in Progress
BOT
SET UP
1 %B < 0 = YES
2 MACD HIST RED = YES
TRIGGER
3 StochRSI(20) > .20 = YES
TOP
SET UP
1 %B > 1 = NO
2 MACD HIST GREEN = NO
TRIGGER
3 StockRSI(20) < .80 = NO
Q&A with Dr. Toby Cosgrove
Sep 25, 2013
Toby Cosgrove is CEO of the Clevland Medical clinic
Gives a good idea where medicine is going.
Ted Cruz mentioned in Video
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/DrTo
CBO indicates OB CARE saves money.
.
http://www.c-span.org/Events/CBO-Director-Testifies-on-Long-Term-Budget-Outlook/10737441691-1/
Congressional Budget Office = CBO
Independent of both DEM and GOP
ELDER SYSTEM
Green price bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising.
A red price bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are falling.
A blue price bar indicates a split or equilibrium between buying and selling pressure.
.
Time frame
The Elder Impulse System can be used across different time frames, but trading should be in harmony with the bigger trend.
EXAMPLE
60 minute should be in harmony with Daily trend
TNA_60 RULES
.
BUY
1 Previous bar = ELDER RED
2 TRIGGER bar = rise in %B, but less than .75
SELL
1 TRIGGER bar = %B DROP
or
2 STOP = PREVIOUS BAR low
MACD offers both trend following and momentum.
Positive MACD indicates that the 12-day EMA is above the 26-day EMA. This means upside momentum is increasing.
Negative MACD values indicates that the 12-day EMA is below the 26-day EMA. This means downside momentum is increasing.
A distance less than 1 point is not a big.
(1)Signal line crossovers at positive or negative extremes should be viewed with caution.
(2)Centerline crossovers are the next most common MACD signals.
A bullish centerline crossover occurs when the MACD Line moves above the zero line to turn positive. This happens when the 12-day EMA of the underlying security moves above the 26-day EMA.
A bearish centerline crossover occurs when the MACD moves below the zero line to turn negative. This happens when the 12-day EMA moves below the 26-day EMA.
Centerline crossovers can last a few days or a few months.
It all depends on the strength of the trend.
The MACD will remain positive as long as there is a sustained uptrend.
These signals can result in numerous whipsaws because strong trends did not materialize after the crossovers.
Stops required.
(3)Divergences form when the MACD diverges from the price action of the underlying security.
A bullish divergence forms when a security records a lower low and the MACD forms a higher low.
A bearish divergence forms when a security records a higher high and the MACD Line forms a lower high.
Divergences should be taken with caution.
Bearish divergences are commonplace in a strong uptrend, while bullish divergences occur often in a strong downtrend.
MACD(5,35,5) is suited for weekly charts.
The MACD is not particularly good for identifying overbought and oversold levels.
It is possible to identify levels that are historically overbought or oversold
During sharp moves, the MACD can continue to over-extend beyond its historical extremes.
User-Defined Scans: Advanced User-Definded Scans
Name
Description
01_ABOVE EMA(65) [[close>EMA(65,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
02_BELOW EMA(65) [[close
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
03_ABOVE EMA(65) for SP500 [[close>EMA(65,close) ]
and
[group is SP500]]
04_BELOW EMA(65) for SP500 [[close
and
[group is SP500]]
05_RSI(14) > 70 [[type = stock] and [group is 'sp500'] and [RSI(14) > 70]]
06_RSI(14) < 30 [[type = stock] and [group is 'sp500'] and [RSI(14) < 30]]
07_ABOVE EMA(65) HF_SECTORS_ETC [[close>EMA(65,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 5] ]
// = 0029_05_Happy Family and SPY SECTORS and DJW
08_BELOW _EMA(65) HF_SECTORS_ETC [[close
and
[favorites list is 5] ]
// = 0029_05_Happy Family and SPY SECTORS and DJW
09_this week's clsoe above last week's high [[ this week's close > last week's high ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
10_this week's close below last week's low [[ this week's close < last week's low ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
11_this week's clsoe above last week's high HP & SECTORS [[ this week's close > last week's high ]
and
[favorites list is 5] ]
// = 0029_05_Happy Family and SPY SECTORS and DJW
12_this week's close below last week's low HP & SECTORS [[ this week's close < last week's low ]
and
[favorites list is 5] ]
// = 0029_05_Happy Family and SPY SECTORS and DJW
13_ABOVE EMA(65) HF,SECTORS,DJW,ITB,XRT [[close>EMA(65,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 5]]
// = 0029_05_Happy Family and SPY SECTORS and DJW,ITB,XRT
14_BELOW EMA(65) HF,SECTORS,DJW,ITB,XRT [[close
and
[favorites list is 5]]
// = 0029_05_Happy Family and SPY SECTORS and DJW,ITB,XRT
15_ABOVE EMA(65) for SP600 and SP400 [[close>EMA(65,close) ]
and
[[group is SP400] or [group is SP600]]]
16_BELOW EMA(65) for SP600 and SP400 [[close
and
[[group is SP400] or [group is SP600]]]
20_Total gain since Mar 2009 [favorites list is 8]
// = 0015_03_Mar 2009 to PRESENT
21_ABOVE SMA(50) [[close>SMA(50,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
22_BELOW SMA(50) [[close
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
23_ABOVE SMA(200) [[close>SMA(200,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
24_BELOW SMA(200) [[close
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
25_SMA(50) > SMA(200) [[sma(50,close) >SMA(200,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
26 _SMA(50) < SMA(200) [[sma(50,close)
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
27_EMA(64) > EMA(320) [[sma(64,close) >SMA(320,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
28_EMA(64) < EMA(320) [[EMA(64,close)
and
[favorites list is 38]]
// = 0025_02_2013_D_1_YEAR
29_ABOVE SMA(50) HF_SECTORS_DJW_ITN_XRT [[close>SMA(50,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 5]]
30_BELOW SMA(50) HF SECTORS ITB_XRT_DJW [[close
and
[favorites list is 5]]
31_SMA(50) > SMA(200) LONG TERM UP .. [[sma(50,close) >SMA(200,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 5]]
32_SMA(50) < SMA(200) LONG TERM DOWN [[sma(50,close)
and
[favorites list is 5]]
33_ABOVE SMA(200) SECTORS [[close>SMA(200,close) ]
and
[favorites list is 5]]
34_BELOW SMA(200) SECTORS [[close
and
[favorites list is 5]]
35_%B>1 SECTORS [ [favorites list is 5]
and
[%B(20,2) > 1]]
36_%B>.5 [ [favorites list is 5]
and
[%B(20,2) > .5]]
37_%B<.5 [ [favorites list is 5]
and
[%B(20,2) < .5]]
38_%B<0 [ [favorites list is 5]
and
[%B(20,2) < 0]]
Managing Your Favorite Scans: Remove the Selected Scans
Percent Gain since Mar 2009
609 TSLA Tesla Motors Inc.
583 TNA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares
429 M Macy's Inc.
376 AAPL Apple, Inc.
315 SSO ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund
258 XRT SPDR S&P Retail Index
234 MU Micron Technology, Inc.
212 XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
162 SCTY SolarCity Corp.
161 $DJUSBT Dow Jones US Biotechnology Index
161 XLI Industrials Select Sector SPDR
158 $DJUSGM Dow Jones US Mid-Cap Growth Index
156 $DJUSGS Dow Jones US Small-Cap Growth Index
153 IWM Russell 2000 iShares
149 XBI SPDR S&P Biotech Index ETF
148 $NDX Nasdaq 100 Index
143 GOOG Google, Inc.
142 $MID S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
141 ITB iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction
139 $RUT Russell 2000 Small Cap Index
136 XLF Financials Select Sector SPDR
134 $COMPQ Nasdaq Composite
132 $TRAN Dow Jones Transportation Average
129 AMGN Amgen, Inc.
124 SPY S&P 500 SPDRs
121 $BKX Bank Index - Philadelphia
121 XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR
120 RKH Market Vectors Bank and Brokerage
115 XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR
113 $WLSH Wilshire 5000 Composite Index (full-cap)
111 XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
110 $DJUS Dow Jones US Broad Market Index
110 BAC Bank Of America Corp.
109 $SPSUPX S&P Composite 1500 Index
106 XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
104 $SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index
104 JPM J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
104 XSD SPDR S&P Semiconductor Index
103 IBM International Business Machines
102 MSFT Microsoft Corp.
102 XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR
99 $DJUSGL Dow Jones US Large-Cap Growth Index
94 $DJUSRB Dow Jones US Broadline Retailers Index
94 $INDU Dow Jones Industrial Average
92 OIH Market Vectors Oil Services
86 $DJUSHB Dow Jones US Home Construction Index
86 $NYA NYSE Composite Index
83 $DJW Dow Jones World Stock Index
79 IGN Network iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
78 $DJUSEN Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Index
71 XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR
68 INTC Intel Corp.
64 SLX Market Vectors Steel
63 LH Laboratory Amer Holding Corp.
56 WMT Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
53 AMAT Applied Materials, Inc.
46 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc.
37 $DJUSST Dow Jones US Steel Index
33 DBC DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund
29 PCG PG&E Corp.
16 IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund
16 TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
2 $TNX 10 Year Treasury Note Yield
0.4 $UST 10-Year US Treasury Note Price (EOD)
-11 $SSEC Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (EOD)
-12 X USX-US Steel Group, Inc.
-21 $DJUSCL Dow Jones US Coal Index
-25 HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co.
-41 WLT Walter Energy, Inc.
-63 ACI Arch Coal, Inc.
-65 ANR Alpha Natural Resources Inc.
-72 RWM Short Russell 2000 Fund
-87 SDS ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500
-99 TZA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares
.
EXAMPLE
IWM_M
(1) SECTORS LAST MONTH
(2) Click a sector NAME gives the Industries
(3) Click an industry NAME gives the companies
.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/sectorsummary.html?&V=M&G=SECTOR_SPDR
BB UPDATED
(1) Candle Stick Tails out side BB = TOP/BOT
Use STOP LOSS
(2)"M" and "W" = TOP/BOT SET UP
First part out side BB
Second part in side BB
Must be confirmed by PRICE
Use STOP LOSS
BB
(1) Tails out side BB = TOP/BOT
(2)"M" and "W" = TOP/BOT SET UP
Must be confirmed by PRICE
Force Index
The Force Index is an indicator that uses price and volume
KELTNER CHANNELS
1 With an exponential moving average as its foundation, Keltner Channels are a trend following indicator.
As with moving averages and trend following indicators, Keltner Channels lag price action.
The direction of the moving average dictates the direction of the channel.
In general, a downtrend is present when the channel moves lower, while an uptrend exists when the channel moves higher.
2 A channel upturn and break above the upper trendline can signal the start of an uptrend.
A channel downturn and break below the lower trendline can signal the start a downtrend.
3 Keltner Channels Versus Bollinger Bands
There are two differences between Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands.
(1)Keltner Channels are smoother than Bollinger Bands because the width of the Bollinger Bands is based on the standard deviation, which is more volatile than the Average True Range (ATR). Many consider this a plus because it creates a more constant width.
This makes Keltner Channels well suited for trend following and trend identification.
(2)Keltner Channels also use an exponential moving average, which is more sensitive than the simple moving average used in Bollinger Bands.
4 Even with a new uptrend established, it is often prudent to wait for a pullback or better entry point to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
(a)StockRSI(14) or CCI(10) can be used
5 Keltner Channels are a trend following indicator designed to identify the underlying trend.
Trend identification is more than half the battle.
KELTNER Channels from Stock Charts
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=keltner&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:keltner_channels
Trading Bias
Establishing a short-term trading bias with a long-term indicator is a recurring theme for trading strategies.
Long-term indicators are used to define the path of least resistance, which becomes the trading bias.
Traders look for bullish setups when the bias is bullish and bearish setups when the bias is bearish.
Trading in the direction of this bias is like riding a bike with the wind at your back.
The chances of success are higher when the bigger trend is in your favor.
I posted all day long yda in real time exactly what I was thinking and why I was doing what I was doing. I consider it pretty rude to ask me the question you asked when I made it very clear exactly what I did in my posts. If you don't have the time to read my posts, please don't try to understand what I am doing. Just do your thing and leave me alone.
10:04
SR60 giving sell signal, but prices reversed with 9:51 3 min bar. LOD is very close to YLOD, close enough to call a hit. YLOD good support point to watch.
10:27
Not just yet. Besides the TA limits, I also watch 3min trend at the time of the signal and look for near support points for entry.
See post 71475 that I posted just before the 10:06 mark.
SR60 giving sell signal, but prices reversed with 9:51 3 min bar. LOD is very close to YLOD, close enough to call a hit. YLOD good support point to watch.
10:51
Jaws and I have discussed this many times, but I understand if one is really not into the flow they miss key stuff. When I get a 60min signal here is what I do next.
1. Switch to my 3min chart and see what the short term trend is. As I stated, this morning the down trend reversed with the 9:51 3min bar.
2. Look for very near support. YLOD was the perfect support point. Prices had already bounced off of it once.
3. Do nothing until xx:06.
At 10:06 clearly prices were going back up and LOD would probable by my entry point.
It is really very simple. Just make sure a shorter time frame has the same trend as 60min and use support or resistance.
Not out of the woods yet, but at least I now know where I will execute a short.
SR60 giving sell signal, but prices reversed with 9:51 3 min bar. LOD is very close to YLOD, close enough to call a hit. YLOD good support point to watch.
11:19
Let's assume that the open was 10am. At 9:36 (my presumed 10:06) the 3min trend was very much down and showed no sign of reversing. I would have executed at 9:36.
But once prices has reversed as they did at the real 10:06, I probable would have used the LOD for entry.
12:15
Another short signal at 12, but so far I am ignoring it also.
* 3min prices seem to have reversed at 11:57.
*Prices are in a nice upward channel (marked on chart in iBox). Channel bottom is 103.86
* BB CL is 103.84
* Minor support at 104, better support at 103.90 and hard support at 103.70.
Bottom line, not going to get excited about doing anything until CL and channel is broken.
Hate these kind of days.
1:25
Yes everything is pointing to the 103.75-.85 area, but I still have my doubts. This is not what a turn usually looks like. Just channeling.
3:45
Looks like we are going to finish the day flat. Lots of decisions for the day, but no executions except for closing BBK trade at the open. Still made a few ticks but was not willing to risk my holdings without a profit margin built in. Don't mind so much playing with the markets money, but I hate playing with mine.
4:02
My chart and a list of all the trades are in the iBox. There were no trades this week. Don't know where you are headed, but I don't need you to log my trades. All the info is already available.
5:14
investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=90147626
This has been a very unusual month in that SR60 has only had 2 trades for the month and they were so long ago that as Jaws said, they do not appear on the chart. SR60 is long and has a gain as of EOW (end of week) of 6.9%. Normally I can count on 6-10% for the month, so it is right on target for the month. As you can read on the chart, the last trade was long on 7/3 at noon @ 98.44.
I added a longer term SR60 chart that shows the complete month and the complete ramp since 6/24.
I can appreciate that you might want to mark up a chart for yourself, but I would prefer that you not name your chart SR_60 because it is very close to SR60 which is what I have called my system for over 2 years. It would get confusing to others.
Sat 9:25
If it surprises you that SR60 has been long since 7/3 then you clearly don't understand the basic rules. Both RSI<60 and Stoc<80 are required. Yesterday was the first time RSI has dropped below 60 since 7/3. There should be no surprise.
Bollinger Bands Basic Rules
Bollinger Bands were created by John Bollinger, CFA, CMT and published in 1983. They were developed in an effort to create fully-adaptive trading bands. The following rules covering the use of Bollinger Bands were gleaned from the questions users have asked most often and our experience over 25 years with Bollinger Bands.
1. Bollinger Bands provide a relative definition of high and low. By definition price is high at the upper band and low at the lower band.
2. That relative definition can be used to compare price action and indicator action to arrive at rigorous buy and sell decisions.
3. Appropriate indicators can be derived from momentum, volume, sentiment, open interest, inter-market data, etc.
4. If more than one indicator is used the indicators should not be directly related to one another. For example, a momentum indicator might complement a volume indicator successfully, but two momentum indicators aren't better than one.
5. Bollinger Bands can be used in pattern recognition to define/clarify pure price patterns such as "M" tops and "W" bottoms, momentum shifts, etc.
6. Tags of the bands are just that, tags not signals. A tag of the upper Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a sell signal. A tag of the lower Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a buy signal.
7. In trending markets price can, and does, walk up the upper Bollinger Band and down the lower Bollinger Band.
8. Closes outside the Bollinger Bands are initially continuation signals, not reversal signals. (This has been the basis for many successful volatility breakout systems.)
9. The default parameters of 20 periods for the moving average and standard deviation calculations, and two standard deviations for the width of the bands are just that, defaults. The actual parameters needed for any given market/task may be different.
10. The average deployed as the middle Bollinger Band should not be the best one for crossovers. Rather, it should be descriptive of the intermediate-term trend.
11. For consistent price containment: If the average is lengthened the number of standard deviations needs to be increased; from 2 at 20 periods, to 2.1 at 50 periods. Likewise, if the average is shortened the number of standard deviations should be reduced; from 2 at 20 periods, to 1.9 at 10 periods.
12. Traditional Bollinger Bands are based upon a simple moving average. This is because a simple average is used in the standard deviation calculation and we wish to be logically consistent.
13. Exponential Bollinger Bands eliminate sudden changes in the width of the bands caused by large price changes exiting the back of the calculation window. Exponential averages must be used for BOTH the middle band and in the calculation of standard deviation.
14. Make no statistical assumptions based on the use of the standard deviation calculation in the construction of the bands. The distribution of security prices is non-normal and the typical sample size in most deployments of Bollinger Bands is too small for statistical significance. (In practice we typically find 90%, not 95%, of the data inside Bollinger Bands with the default parameters)
15. %b tells us where we are in relation to the Bollinger Bands. The position within the bands is calculated using an adaptation of the formula for Stochastics
16. %b has many uses; among the more important are identification of divergences, pattern recognition and the coding of trading systems using Bollinger Bands.
17. Indicators can be normalized with %b, eliminating fixed thresholds in the process. To do this plot 50-period or longer Bollinger Bands on an indicator and then calculate %b of the indicator.
18. BandWidth tells us how wide the Bollinger Bands are. The raw width is normalized using the middle band. Using the default parameters BandWidth is four times the coefficient of variation.
19. BandWidth has many uses. Its most popular use is to indentify "The Squeeze", but is also useful in identifying trend changes...
20. Bollinger Bands can be used on most financial time series, including equities, indices, foreign exchange, commodities, futures, options and bonds.
21. Bollinger Bands can be used on bars of any length, 5 minutes, one hour, daily, weekly, etc. The key is that the bars must contain enough activity to give a robust picture of the price-formation mechanism at work.
22. Bollinger Bands do not provide continuous advice; rather they help indentify setups where the odds may be in your favor.
A note from John Bollinger:
One of the great joys of having invented an analytical technique such as Bollinger Bands is seeing what other people do with it. These rules covering the use of Bollinger Bands were assembled in response to questions often asked by users and our experience over 25 years of using the bands. While there are many ways to use Bollinger Bands, these rules should serve as a good beginning point.
To learn more about Bollinger Bands:
Bollinger on Bollinger Bands book
Bollinger Bands DVD Covers the material from Bollinger on Bollinger Bands book
Bollinger Band DVD 2011 Covers latest work
To view a webinar covering these 22 rules, click here.
© Bollinger Capital Management. All rights reserved
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