Swift Energy fka SFYWQ

[brandemarcus]

Maybe I will up my offer to 4 cents for your new swft shares plus the warrants?
Today only - I will offer "help" to those who need to trade? Hurry before they are worth 0!

[bainvest]

Does anyone know what happened to SFYWQ? Will there be a new symbol?
Just curious where did my shares go.

[Nellafom]

The 2020 warrent has a $73 per share value in my ml account balooning my acount value. Unfortunately ml won't let me sell them :)

[brandemarcus]

If I didn't have moral objections to taking advantage of you, I would offer to buy those magic beans from you for as much as 2 cents per bean. Have patience or look at the discussion on the yahoo board.

[OldKnight]

Was anyone else awarded warrants who understands what to do withthem?

[Nellafom]

My shares are gone. Exchanged for some magic beans.

[LouisDesyjr]

SFTWQ? No quote?

Did this get delisted? I have not been following for a while and can't get a quote.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[liverless]

What you are saying does not make sense. Who cares if the book equity is negative? They already have a deal, it was approved by the court, common gets 4% plus 30% of warrants. Anyone can do the math on what that means for MC and EV. This has nothing to do with retail traders.

[brandemarcus]

The equity being negative is not written in stone. It is using a point in time oil and natural gas price that can change considerably. What if you are wrong about oil and natural gas price direction for the next 3 to 4 years? That's a lot of time (option value ?) for things to change.

[LouisDesyjr]

Equity is negative

The problem is that one of the recent 10Q or 10K reports showed equity negative something like $800 million or more, meaning one can expect to common shares to get almost nothing.

While I am glad to hear the common are getting something, they are getting something where the strike price will be so high that they will never get in the money.

While the common shares may go up, it will only because the retail market is trading it and have no idea how little the warrants will be worth.

Since the downside is to get stuck with something that is worth almost nothing, I would recommend getting out of the trade with a profit and being happy about it, instead of holding on for more money.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[liverless]

Look again. There are 44.6mm shares outstanding, so at $0.2 that is $9mm value, which at 4% of equity implies market is giving the entire new equity a market cap of $225mm

EV is $225mm + $324mm of bank debt so $550mm

For that $550mm they had Q3 EBITDA of $23mm, so 5x EBITDA, and 16,000 per flowing boe

These aren't unreasonable metrics.

The kicker is the existing common gets warrants for 30% of total equity which is a lot, but I do not see any info about what that will be priced at.

[brandemarcus]

Based on your posts ,4,6,7 it seems to me you have a predetermined point of view. In most cases you are right but the exception could have such an amazing upside that it might pay to be more objective. Can you point to one commodity company that's in a lot of trouble where you actually think there is investment merit.

[LouisDesyjr]

Yes, it will get cancelled

I expect at some point the common shares will be cancelled. I have not looked in a while, but I will check to see how the Chap 11 plan is coming along a little later tomorrow, and give you an estimate when I expect it will happen.

Anyone holding the stock into this run up has been given a gift and should take profits.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[brandemarcus]

Still think it will be less than a penny?

[Airdawg Investments]

$SFYQW on the Top 10 Advancers list today!

https://twitter.com/Colwellinvestor/status/716050110602354688

[Airdawg Investments]

$SFYWQ #6 on Top 10 OTC Advancers today!

https://twitter.com/Colwellinvestor/status/715728296512598016

[LouisDesyjr]

DIP financing bounce and Q4 2015 results

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=70771451
On March 11, the company filed a statement 8K about DIP financing. A lot of times, when a company annouces the DIP (Debtor In Possession) financing, the stock jumps because a lot of the retail market 'thinks the company is saved' and the existing common shares are going to have a better chance now.

What most (all?) of them do not understand, is that the DIP financing has super priority status in order of the classes, so the existing common shares are now at the end of an even longer line for any recovery in the bankruptcy process.

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=SFYWQ
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=SFYWQ&annual
Even worse, is that it looks like the company took a $1.5 billion write off in 2015, making equity negative by about $852 million. As a result, the equity has all been wiped out and the existing common shares are dead.

There is nothing left for them to recover on.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[coachvw]

Ok...that didn't last long (lol:)

[coachvw]

Why is this going up?

[LouisDesyjr]

Very little will be left for common shares

It looks like the common shares are getting some part of the new shares plus warrants.

The problem is that it looks like so little is left that I expect it to only be worth less than a penny from what I can tell. It looks like over 90%+ of the new equity is going to all of the other classes that are higher in priority.

There was a Jan 2016 operating report filed but it looks like the company is losing money still.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[LouisDesyjr]

Now I have got to recalc since it might actually be worth buying.

I need to take a close look to see if the $84 million per year in cash flow is realistic, since if it is there might be value here.

One thing I did not take out of the number was depreciation. Even though it is not a cash expenditure, something should be deducted for depreciation.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[diy_investor]

LouisDesyjr,

4% of $840 million is $33.6 million, not $3.36 million.

[LouisDesyjr]

Common shares expected to be worth less than $0.07

Using very rough numbers, I believe that the old common stock is worth less than $0.07 and would not consider buying unless the shares were $0.03 or lower. (And even that is a risk since it is very uncertain what kind of numbers the company will generate going forward.)

Sources:
http://www.swiftenergy.com/menus/IR-Recent-Fundamentals.htm
Most recent financial statements for period ending 09-30-2015

http://www.swiftenergy.com/ABOUT-SWIFT/RESTRUCTURE/q-and-a-documents.pdf
Q & A about the Chapter 11 filing

Discussion:
The company has done a 'prepackaged' Chapter 11 filing where the senior note holders are converting their notes into 96% of the NewCo equity. That will leave the existing shareholders 4% of the equity in the reformed company.

The company lost $354 million in the most recent 10Q report. From that we can see what the company could earn on a quarterly basis by backing out the write downs of $321 million, interest expenses of $19 million and depreciation of $35 million. That would leave the company cash positive of $21 million, annualized that would be $84 million. If we apply a cap rate of 10% to that, that would give the company a valuation of $840 million. 4% of that is $3.36 million.

With the shares trading for $0.14 for a market cap of $6.24 million, the price would have to be at least 50% lower before it can make any sense to buy the shares, plus the shares need to be lower than that to have a 'margin of safety' with all of the problems that the company can be expected to have or actual valuation that the company may end up with. As a result, I would not buy the shares unless they were $0.03 or lower.

While there are warrants as part of the deal, those may never rise above their strike price and should not effect the calculation that much.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

[Renee]

SFYW changed to SFYWQ: bankruptcy: (yet the stock went up 54 % today to .14 hmmmmmmm)

http://otce.finra.org/DLSymbolNameChanges

[shortorlong]

Tomorrow is the big day. Do they make loan interest payment or default? The fate of this stock will most likely be obvious tomorrow.

[macman95835]

Latest News for Swift Energy

http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/968108/swift-energy-company-sfy-downgraded-by-ladenburg-thalmann/