Sunrun, Inc. (RUN)

[Tcsxyz]

Let's see, class action lawsuit and the SEC investigation. For a company that can't afford one of these let alone both. Let's be honest two separate employees that never met blew the whistle. They totally withheld info and will be fined huge for that.

[BlueAlien]

RUN buyer at 5.00

[pantherj]

Below is the article causing all the ruckus. It is obvious from Jurich's reply that she is obfuscating and trying to cover up. This is not about a mere 200 cancellations improperly logged. This is about thousands and thousands of hidden cancellations. It seems 40% of their contracts cancel. I bet Solar City is even worse! Neither Jurich nor Fenster can be believed.
******************************************************************
Reports surfaced on Monday of former managers at one of the largest US solar companies Sunrun claiming that they manipulated key sales data around the time of the company’s 2015 initial public offering (IPO).

The former Sunrun employees elaborated that they were allegedly instructed by superiors to hold back on reporting data revealing hundreds of customer cancellations for a five-month period in mid-2015.

The Wall Street Journal reports Darren Jennings, who said he was a Sunrun regional sales manager in Hawaii from February 2015-February 2017, saying: “The big internal push was to cram as many sales as we could through the pipeline. If those deals cancelled, we would not report it.”

Jennings also reportedly said that in Hawaii, sales employees omitted to process around 200 cancellations, “which represented about 40% of total orders in Hawaii during the May 2015-October 2015 period”.

In addition, Evan Stockdale former regional manager at Sunrun’s California base, told reporters that the company allegedly held off on reporting certain cancellation data as it was under pressure to hit internal sales targets.

This news breaks just a few weeks after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into whether Sunrun and fellow solar installer SolarCity were adequately disclosing how many customers had cancelled solar contracts.

When the news broke of the SEC investigation, Sunrun stock fell to its lowest point in 11 months. Now shares are down around 20% since its debut two years ago.

In response to reports of manipulating sales data, Lynn Jurich, Sunrun’s chief executive, and co-founder Edward Fenster issued a statement to the WSJ saying that the company “reviewed the digital audit trail in our systems” and “turned up no evidence that our sales employees changed cancellation dates in our systems to delay the reporting of cancellations”.
Does it really matter?

The issue that the SEC and the residential solar industry has with delaying such cancellation data is that it can be said to misrepresent the company’s financial standing and overall health.

However, Deutsche Bank research analyst Vishal Shah has asserted that even if Sunrun did indeed manipulate sales numbers by delaying cancellation figures, it may not matter so much.

“While the optics clearly don't look good and could remain a near term overhang in shares, we note that bookings are not an important driver of valuation. We believe the company may be in discussions with the SEC but it only discloses material legal matters and these conversations do not appear to be material as the company has not disclosed anything as of yet.

“As for the bookings allegations from the Wall Street Journal article, we note that Sunrun never disclosed bookings in the IPO prospectus and that the comments refer to only about 200 homes which represents roughly 1MW of bookings, a fairly immaterial number in our view. The company has a much more stringent bookings process in place now compared to a few years ago and installations (as opposed to bookings) are the primary driver of valuation. Net/net, this news appears to be immaterial at this point although it's certainly something to watch out for.”

[pantherj]

Gee, what a surprise!! Link, if you have it, please.

[Tcsxyz]

Got caught lying to the SEC today. Ouch

[pantherj]

The odd thing about solar is that it is least effective in the very ares that need it most. I believe we will finally see the gov't get out of a lot of things that they really have no business being in anyway; and solar will be near the top of that list.

Solar cannot stand on its own. It cannot compete economically without massive subsidies and a patchwork of zany laws that mandate high cost energy sources because they are popularly thought to save the earth. Even the loonies in Kahliphonya are catching on.

[The2ndAmendment]

Here is something I fully agree with you here. It's just not the time for solar. Many cheap forms of energy at this point, oil dropping yet again and the dollar gaining strength. However, if we see oil shoot past $100 a barrel like it did in the 2008 period, we will see a big flock of people to solar. The new administration looks like they want us to become more energy independent, and coal may make an entrance again soon.
Good post here... also covers the terrible gov't in California that pushes higher cost green energy. Also, solar is not attractive for areas far away from the equator, or areas prone to rain/clouds. If it becomes more efficient, the working area will expand.

[The2ndAmendment]

It's just not efficient enough either at this point, although it is getting better. Coupled with dropping oil prices and the possible re-emergence of coal, solar may take a nosedive for a bit. Now with the class action lawsuits, this stock has hit pennyland.

[pantherj]

Yikes!@! What a drop, down nearly 10% ... in one day. Even i would not have expected this.

[dragon52]

Sunrun

Shares in San Francisco, California headquartered Sunrun Inc. closed at $5.42, up 2.85% from the last trading session. The stock recorded a trading volume of 1.24 million shares, which was above its three months average volume of 1.02 million shares. The Company's shares have gained 10.39% in the last one month and 2.07% since the start of this year. The stock is trading 1.10% above its 50-day moving average. Additionally, shares of Sunrun, which engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the US, have an RSI of 54.47. On April 11(th) , 2017, Sunrun and Minor League Baseball(TM) announced that they are expanding their community outreach partnership in The Golden State of California this season. Sunrun, the "Preferred Residential Solar Power Provider of Minor League Baseball," has added the Inland Empire 66ers and the Sacramento River Cats to its existing multi-year strategic sponsorship with Minor League Baseball, which was inked in 2016. Visit us today and access our complete research report on RUN at: http://stock-callers.com/registration/?symbol=RUN

[Felo31]

How much of the nose dive is the company's own fault? Ive read that Trump's election affected the entire solar green market because he has not said anywhere that he is interested in renewable energy and *apparently* much of the renewable sector depends on assistance from the government.

[pantherj]

The world is round ... and it appears that the institutions are selling, not buying. Wall Street doesn't hate Solar, they just don't see it making money in the long term.

[dragon52]

yeah i guess institutions aren't buying this... wall street hates solar

and the world is flat.

[dragon52]

Well I guess if you can do it, so can I...

[pantherj]

Rant?? lol Too funny. In 15 months this dog has plummeted 47% ($10.19 to $5.40) .... and that gives it the benefit of this latest "dead cat" bounce from $4.80 just a few days ago. $1,000.00 is now worth only $530.00. And yet, you say I'm ranting because I bring out the facts that are not to your liking.

So, if SunRun is in its best shape, why was the PPS nearly 100% higher a year ago? And why does it keep repeating a patten of nose diving, then a small rally, then dipping lower than before.

The proof is in the pudding, and the SunRun pudding doesn't taste good for investors.

[dragon52]

so, what you are implying is that Sunrun does not give the best deals nor does it give any substantial savings to the customer. If I understand your rant correctly... is that correct?

[pantherj]

That's laughable. The interview process speaks for itself. People are hardly "Flocking" to them. Their terms of employment are not nearly as good as before. Personally, I do not have any interest in Solar sales. But, when one deals with sales people on a daily basis and advises them on career choice/paths, one gets a lot of info on many companies.

I'm not nearly as enthused about solar as many are. It is, largely, an artificially contrived market that would not exist without gov't subsidies or programs like net metering. There is an abundance of inexpensive energy available; energy that is must less expensive than the true cost of solar. But, the gov't, especially the snowflake gov't out in California, requires providers to buy more expensive forms of green energy, thus raising everyone's rates and making solar borderline attractive.

A relative of mine recently considered going solar. They talked to three companies. I was there for two of the presentations. The bottom line was this, on a power PPA he would save, in the near term, $25.00 (+/-)/ mo. However, the annual increase in payments + the degradation factor charges seriously diminish those monthly savings over time because, taken together, those factors are higher than the avg annual rate (15 yr avg) of increase of the utility company.

Of the companies involved, Solar City was the worst, with SunRun being right in the middle of the three. Solar and Sun really pushed the PPA ( those are more profitable to the company in the long term), but neither could compete well on a sale of the system.

[dragon52]

well when that happens you can start counting all over again... lol

[dragon52]

You may think Sunrun is "stealing" others

and quite contrary. Others are flocking in because of the culture and how they treat their employees. From what I have seen, if I could I would move over also.

I just happen to know quite a few that came from other companies and it appears that the "grass" is greener on the other side.

So you have to ask yourself... if those that are moving over and if they are tops in their company... why are they moving? Are they not happy? Are they not getting their fair share of commissions? I mean, if they are that great, why would they move? Do they see more upward mobility? if so, then their company might suck and not giving their employees the best for being the best.

Then again, they may not be but only in their own mind, they think they are great.

You talk about stealing yet, where is the proof and exactly why you feel this way... Did you get turned down at an interview and saw someone else get picked over you? you seem very bitter and stead fast on this.

[pantherj]

And it could just as easily sink below 5 again. but, it will neither hit 6, or sink below 5 again ... at least not today.

[pantherj]

LOLOL!! Save the sanctimonious silly stuff. I've made a nice life working in all commission businesses. The worth of a lead is determined by the definition of what constitutes a lead.

You mention promoting from within, ala top lead generators becoming sales/closers. That would make some sense. But (A) that is NOT what SunRun is doing and (B) many of the top lead generators in any business are/would be terrible sales people.

Currently, it appears that SunRun is pinning its hopes on its ability to steal people and leads from other companies.

[dragon52]

three and a half more hours of trading... this could hit 6~~!!!

[dragon52]

sure looks darn good for a penny stock

[dragon52]

someone's reading the board... it must make sense lmao

[dragon52]

pretty quiet on an up day... no rah rah?

[dragon52]

do you know how commissions work?

for one thing... IMO Sunrun has found out the hard way that lead generations do nothing for the bottom line. more money is spent generating leads and does very little for creating a planet run by the sun one roof at a time... in other words, leads bring in squat and only makes the company look good because it is showing activity... but in reality, they are spending more money to keep those lead generators employed that don't bring in appointment that sit and go to order.

A lead goes no where... I could get a telephone book and start rolling out names and the company would think I was the best "lead" generator ever... but check the order rate and it would suck as hell because all those leads would turn rotten in no time, but HEY!!! I did my job... right?

And I agreee that most sales people do not know how to self generate, so the answer is to hire from within... make those top producing lead generators your new consultants because they know how to do it... they know from the bottom up and would do a better job because they've been there.

I don't mind cutting the riff raff if they show no production from lead to close... but if they can lead and create sits... then they are the next leaders.

How old do you think this company is btw?

[dragon52]

so you are saying that you speak for all the investors... if I understand your post correctly.

well... if that's the case... then it proves my point.

[pantherj]

Little of that is true and none of it has to do with the way investors view SunRun. They can tell you all they want that they are just ridding themselves of non-producing sales people. Any marketing organization run by competent management does that day in and day out. So, if you're saying that suddenly they are now paying attention to sales, that doesn't say much for management.

In truth what they are doing is tearing apart their lead generating staffs in order to cut costs and feed the beast. Instead they are relying on attracting sales people already in the business with other companies and hoping that they will bring in business generated at and by the other company. That might work, except for two things. It leaves them open to law suits and it smacks of desperation. How long they can rely on customers brought in by new sales people from other companies and leads that are "self-generated" is anybody's guess. But, there is no other solar company out there that has made it big relying on the sales people to generate their own leads. Typically, sale people are not good lead generators and even fewer are willing to do it.

BTW, Solar City is finally getting what is coming to them.IMO, they are sad, flaky and a quite dishonest company. Though, the Tesla name carries a lot of cache.

[dragon52]

Its beating estimates... Darn phone lol

[dragon52]

Lmao... Bear ng estimates for 4 qtrs is not because this is a bad company.
Unfortunately, it's in the same sector as solar city, which is debt ridden...who was bought out by Elon Musk of Tesla, another loser. So when the largest solar company is losing money it is assumed that the rest are just going to tank as well.
Sunrun is no longer using the Tesla type 2,
For their ESS systems but are going with LG Chem a more reliable lithium ion manufacturer. They already announced opening in Wisconsin and getting into 5 more states this year...to include Texas and Florida.
They are ramping up by reducing the non-producing sales people which is in line with be lean values. They install more than 2.5 million dollars in solar everyday and have more than 100,000 customers, more like 140,000 by now...
So, apparently you she to be uneducated in this company that you chose to moderate it's board. If I were you and thank god I am not...I would refrain from voicing your opinions and trust me they are baseless rants without substance

[pantherj]

No counting would be necessary if this were a solid company run by good management.

[dragon52]

lmao... start your counting again lol... from ZERO

[pantherj]

Looks like the insiders bought just enough to get it back over $5.00.

[dragon52]

BTW - It doesn't matter if this trades below $5...

the concern would be if this trades under $1.00 for 10 days or more... then it could get delisted. However chances are slim to none... so call this what you want, it won't change where this trades on... not many "pennies" trade on major exchanges... though there are quite a few.

[dragon52]

If this trades above 5 today... the count starts all over again lol

all that hard work for nothing... waste of time

[pantherj]

Today marks the 6th consecutive day in penny land territory.

[pantherj]

That's not an answer to any of my questions.

[BlueAlien]

Institutional Ownership
73.25%

Total Shares Outstanding (millions)
105

Total Value of Holdings (millions)
$376


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/run/institutional-holdings#ixzz4cYmGbqSP


Holders Shares

Increased Positions
53 7,878,681

Decreased Positions
48 2,951,741

Held Positions
17 65,817,067

Total Institutional Shares
118 76,647,489

Holders Shares

New Positions
18 2,837,290

Sold Out Positions
19 1,767,681

Not bad for having gone public 1 1/2 years ago

[pantherj]

Sounds like you're an employee/officer! If things are so "rosy," why then is most of Wall Street in general disagreement with SunRun, its reports, etc ... and why the draconian cuts in sales staff and in marketing (lead production)?

In short, investors are NOT buying the story.

[BlueAlien]

So far, we’ve installed nearly 3 million solar panels on over 100,000 rooftops and saved our customers more than $100,000,000 off their electricity bills...we are just getting started.

[pantherj]

Today is the 5th consecutive day RUN wallows in penny land.

[dbempire]

I picked up the return to $4.85. Nice bounce after hours

[pantherj]

The market isn't buying what UBS is selling, either. This, if it continues, will make the 4th day in a row in which RUN has sloshed around in penny stock territory.

[eFinanceMarkets]

Sunrun upgraded to Buy at UBS on accelerating prospects out of Q4
Sunrun (RUN +2.9%) upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $6.50 price target at UBS, which sees pitfalls associated with Q4 now in the past and the company poised to execute as the story heads towards northeastern states.
The firm sees the National Grid deal as substantially more meaningful than investors are willing to acknowledge, and views RUN's accelerated hiring as epitomizing its relative confidence.
With Tesla's SolarCity subsidiary and others stuck on execution, UBS sees the opportunity for RUN to reset already low expectations.

[dragon52]

on the contrary... just out

DJ SunRun Raised to Buy From Neutral by UBS RUN 

[pantherj]

Really?!!! lololol Wall Street ain't buying what they're selling. IMO, they've been less than straight forward in their reporting. On the operational level, they are making draconian cuts. Management by crisis seems to be the current SunRun mode with panic prevalent among the troops.

[dragon52]

so what... they beat estimates 5 qtrs... not worried here.

[pantherj]

This makes three days in a row and 5 of the last 7 that Run has closed below the penny stock line.

[dragon52]

Here's a hint...

If you buy puts and calls, then it ain't a penny stock.

[pantherj]

Sorry, you're wrong. very few will buy under $10.00. The more reputable the fund, the less likely they are to buy under $10.00