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10 Stocks That Are Winners With $60 Oil
By Jim Jubak
MSN Money Markets Editor
Sixty-dollar-a-barrel oil. It's different this time.
And investing as if this was just another temporary hike in the price of a barrel of oil isn't going to cut it over the next decade. In this column, I'm going to give you my take on how $60 oil has changed the game for investors. And 10 stock picks for winning this new game.
It's not so obvious in the short run that the game has changed. In the short run, that $60 figure is just a price. But -- at least in the short run -- it's a price that moves the financial markets and the economy. When daily oil prices break below $60, stocks rally. And when crude moves strongly above $60 a barrel, stocks retreat. Check out the action on March 2 to see what I mean: A jump in the April crude-oil futures contract in New York to $63.36 that day helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a 28-point stumble.
Investors and traders are familiar with this kind of pattern and the factors -- such as seasonal fluctuations in inventory and market reaction to news -- that produce these moves. In the short run, although the price swings may be more extreme, $60-a-barrel oil is business as usual. In the long run, though, $60 oil is shorthand for a set of changes in the global economy, ranging from "peak oil" to the rising cost of finding and producing oil.
What $60 Means
To sum up, briefly:
Sixty-dollar oil is shorthand for an increase in the already substantial economic clout of oil-producing countries and a further decline in the independence of the global oil companies.
It's shorthand for rising costs of production, as oil-producing countries charge more for access to their oil and as it gets more and more expensive to produce oil from aging or unconventional fields.
It's shorthand for the growing importance of technology in the energy sector, as oil producers of all stripes struggle to wring oil out of old or damaged reservoirs or out of difficult-to-reach reserves -- and as every producer tries to control costs.
It's shorthand for increasing demand from China and India that will keep supply too close to demand for comfort. It will thus magnify every minor geopolitical ripple, such as a regional war in Nigeria, into a market-moving event.
It's shorthand for the increasing political uncertainty of supply, as the world becomes more and more dependent on oil and gas from countries such as Russia, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia that are each ruled by regimes that are themselves dependent on oil and gas revenue to maintain their power.
And most of all, $60 oil is shorthand for permanently high energy prices. Oh, maybe not at the $60 level if the world's economy slips into recession or if the world's consuming countries take strong action to reduce their demand for oil and gas. (Hey, don't laugh. It is theoretically possible.) But nonetheless, crude oil permanently priced above the $45-a-barrel point makes so many new energy sources and energy technologies viable investments.
10 for $60
Let me translate three parts of that $60-a-barrel shorthand into longhand and give you a few specific stock picks for each part of this new global economy.
Lower royalties and greater political stability give a big edge to North American energy producers. At a time when energy-producing countries such as Venezuela are raising the royalties that oil producers must pay on each barrel they pump to 30%, the U.S. is headed in the other direction. Thanks to legislation passed during the Clinton administration and never revised, oil companies pumping oil and gas from federal lands will get about $7 billion in royalty relief between now and 2011.
The problem, first exposed by The New York Times, is the result of incentives designed to encourage expensive deep-sea drilling in the Gulf of Mexico when oil was selling for less than $20 a barrel. But the royalty relief, which covers all drilling leases from 1996 through 2000, is still in place, even though oil is selling for more than $60 a barrel.
Add in the relative predictability of U.S. and Canadian law -- nobody is about to seize domestic oil projects belonging to ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) -- and domestic producers have a big edge on costs and reliability of production. This hasn't been lost on oil and gas companies: Encana (ECA:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), the Canadian-based oil and gas producer, has been busy selling off foreign reserves in order to invest in North American projects, for example.
Big winners from this North American edge include Encana, Canadian oil sands producers such as Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), and companies such as EOG Resources (EOG:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) that are tapping into the huge Barnett Shale formation in north central Texas.
Oilfield technology spending will rise faster than oil production. Spending money on technology makes sense in a $60-a-barrel world in two ways. First, spending money on technology can drive down overall costs. For example, 3-D seismic imaging costs more than older forms of geologic data collection and display, but it more than pays for itself in improved rates of oil discovery. Second, new technologies for oil production can improve the rates of recovery from existing fields and make production from unconventional formations such as oil shale, oil sands or tight sand possible for the first time.
Technology winners include Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) in seismic imaging and oilfield production management, Grant Prideco (GRP:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) in the development of intelligent drilling systems, Headwaters (HW:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) in researching ways to turn coal into oil and gas, and Praxair (PX:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) in the production of gases such as hydrogen used to increase production from aging fields.
The technology push from $60 oil isn't limited to the oil fields. A price above $45 is enough to power a search for new alternatives to oil and natural gas. Solar, ethanol, biodiesel, wind, nuclear and conservation are all candidates for the future energy mix. Which of these alternatives grab the biggest share depends on technology.
The biggest bottleneck in solar, right now, isn't a lack of subsidies or the price of solar-produced electricity, but the availability of enough silicon solar cells. With wind power, there's a race to make wind-turbine blades stronger, longer and lighter. In looking for a replacement for the gasoline-powered car, battery technology will be a key.
And I don't think you can count out the old-fashioned internal combustion car just yet. Better computerized controls, better transmissions and other technological improvements could make the current auto more than a match for any hybrid. A project by the Union of Concerned Scientists, for example, was able to rebuild a Ford Explorer to make it get 36 miles per gallon, a 71% improvement. I think we're looking at a golden age for materials science.
I can't do more than scratch the surface here -- I'll return to this topic more fully in a later column -- but some companies that deserve a place on your radar screen include DuPont (DD:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), which has set a goal of making 25% of its chemical products from biological raw materials by 2010; General Cable (BGC:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), which is producing new types of electric transmission cable to address a huge conservation opportunity (distribution losses in the U.S. electrical grid have climbed to 9.5% today from 5% in 1970); and Zoltek (ZOLT:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take), which makes high-performance carbon fiber used in autos and windmills to lower weight and increase strength.
Small Government
You may note that I've written about solutions to the global imbalance between oil supply and oil demand without mentioning a single action on this front by the U.S. government.
That's because, frankly, I don't expect this administration or any likely successor administration to do anything significant to address the situation. (The Clinton administration didn't do much on this front, either, so my disgust is resolutely bipartisan.) The forces of the status quo give too much money to too many politicians to make change likely. This is, after all, a government that hasn't been able to raise the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for passenger cars -- now at 27.5 miles per gallon -- since 1985.
Not that I wouldn't like to see the government act. I think government has a critical role to play in smoothing the transition from our current auto technologies to whatever comes next. And some mornings when the sun is especially bright, or the breeze especially fresh, I actually imagine that the government might act.
As an investor, though, I'm not counting on it.
http://www.thestreet.com/_tsctten/comment/investing/10272243.html
NYSE dazzles in public debut
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange began life as a publicly traded company on Wednesday with a bang, as its stock surged nearly 25 percent in its market debut.
The day marked the end of the exchange's 213-year history as a member-owned club and the start of its own membership in the red-hot publicly-traded exchange sector, with its sights set firmly on future growth through acquisitions and new products.
The NYSE, the world's largest stock exchange, sealed its purchase of electronic rival Archipelago Holdings Inc. on Tuesday and joined the two into the new NYSE Group Inc. (NYSE:NYX - news), designed to haul the exchange into the electronic age.
Interest in NYSE shares ran high from the start, mirroring other strong openings for exchanges going public.
The stock rose 23 percent from Archipelago's $64.25 close on the American Stock Exchange on Tuesday to $80, valuing the NYSE Group at more than $12 billion. The stock was up 23 percent from Archipelago's Tuesday close on the Pacific Exchange.
"The floor reaction was great. You could hardly hear the bell," NYSE Chief Executive John Thain told reporters after ringing the bell to mark the start of trading.
But the ringing of promotional NYSE handbells was not quite enough to drown out a few cries of "boo" from sections of the trading floor. Some uncertainty overhangs the long-term future of an auction system run by traders as cheaper electronic trading increasingly takes over.
The share price jump came as a surprise to some analysts, who had not expected a significant "pop." They figured the deal was factored into Archipelago's share price, which had surged from about $17 when the deal was unveiled last April.
Jamie Selway, managing director at White Cap Trading, attributed the share hike to a lack of liquidity in the stock and high retail interest.
"It's the granddaddy of all exchanges and you can infer there's going to be a lot of retail interest," said Selway, adding investing in the stock was "not for the faint of heart" as it was hard to establish an appropriate value right now.
HIGHLY PRICED?
The exchanges sector has been popular among investors of late, as operators follow a trend of demutualizing and going public, with several initial public offerings reaping huge gains for investors in their debuts.
Shares of CBOT Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BOT - news), operator of the No. 2 U.S. commodities exchange, surged nearly 50 percent in their market debut last October; Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CME - news), the largest U.S. futures exchange, rose nearly 23 percent from their offer price in 2002.
However, the NYSE is already trading at one of the richest valuations among its peers, causing concern among some analysts that the shares may be overvalued.
Sandler O'Neill analyst Richard Repetto estimates the NYSE is trading at around 60 times 2006 earnings.
The London Stock Exchange (LSE.L) trades at 38 times its expected normalized 2006 earnings, according to Reuters Estimates. Only U.S. rival the Nasdaq Stock Market (Nasdaq:NDAQ - news), which trades at 61 times forward earnings, trades at the same level.
Repetto also attributed the first day surge to retail investors, saying they were viewing the NYSE listing change in the same way as some of the recent exchange IPOs -- but he has a "sell" rating on the stock and a 12-month target of $48.
Analysts are awaiting more information from the NYSE on where it is headed in order to evaluate its growth prospects.
The Big Board is expected to push harder into trading assets other than equities, broadening its range of options, over-the-counter stocks and other derivatives. Thain has also made clear his desire to participate in the continuing consolidation of exchanges in Europe and the United States.
The NYSE is now answerable to shareholders rather than 1,366 seat holders who each received 80,177 shares and $300,000 cash as the exchange went public.
Seats which sold at a record price of $3.75 million last December 27 under that formula would have a value in cash and stock of more than $6.7 million at the close of trading on Wednesday.
Going forward, Thain is expected to cut costs and possibly raise fees to boost profit and possibly move the exchange's opening forward from 9:30 a.m. New York time to win some of the trades happening earlier.
"They are going to turn a lot of attention to a growth strategy ... striving to meet the investor growth expectations that underlie the stock price," said Bill Cline, manager director of global markets at Accenture.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060309/bs_nm/financial_nyse_dc
stockster picks... safe after the surge?
vaso vrdi vrdm info cdss iflb mbay glif gspg
How to ride that aging baby-boomer wave
(Linda Stern is a freelance writer. Any opinions in the column are solely those of Ms. Stern. You can e-mail her at lindastern(at)aol.com.)
By Linda Stern
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The baby boomers are starting to turn 60, and who wouldn't want to be selling whatever they're going to buy?
People approaching retirement buy second homes, cruises, investment products, health-care services, the occasional RV or (post) midlife-crisis motorcycle, and lots and lots of restaurant meals.
It seems like investors willing to place a few strategic bets might look at some of those industries. With the members of the boom numbering around 76 million, and entering -- or entrenched in -- their biggest earnings years, there's a lot of money to be spread around.
That is not to say that investors should throw all of their money after this demographic. The key to a successful investment plan is, after all, diversification, low fees and a steady, long-term view.
But boomers will be aging and spending for a long time, and investors who want to spend a bit of time researching the companies and funds that might profit most from that will find a lot to like.
Here are some ideas for getting your piece of it.
-- Leisure.
Boomers love their fun, and fun-selling companies such as lodging and travel businesses, craft stores, publishers, fishing-rod manufacturers and casinos have profits to show for it.
Four leading mutual funds that focus on leisure company stocks have returned 32.4 percent to investors in the six years since the stock market peaked in 2000, says Lipper analyst Don Cassidy. That gain is in comparison to a 0.7 percent loss for the Standard and Poor's 500 over the same period.
The four are Icon Leisure & Consumer Staples (whose symbol is ICLEX), Fidelity Select Leisure (FDLSX), Rydex Leisure (RYLIX), and a load fund: AIM Leisure (FLISX).
He thinks leisure companies will do well for a while. "I like to be in them, in effect, to overweight those areas that the megatrends favor," he said.
-- Financials.
This is another Cassidy favorite. From time to time analysts have looked at the shares of mutual fund companies and determined that they often do better than the mutual funds the companies sell.
Of course, simply buying shares of fund companies will not get you the kind of diversified portfolio you should get from holding a mutual fund.
But with the biggest generation ever entering its investment-obsessed years, and money managers aiming at skimming a minimum of 1 percent off the top of those portfolios, it's worth a look.
Here are some of the companies whose own share prices are beating the heck out of the SP500: Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Cohen and Steers (CNS), Calamos Asset Management (CLMS), Janus Capital Group (JNS), Legg Mason (LM) and, of course, Ameriprise Financial (AMP), the financial services company behind those embarrassingly annoying (or is it annoyingly embarrassing?) '60s nostalgia ads.
-- Health care.
More than $3 billion in knees and hips are sold every year in America. Increasing numbers of boomers are moving to the aspirin-a-day plan. Diabetes, sleep apnea, hypertension are all at epidemic levels, or at least more carefully monitored, analyzed and treated than they ever were before.
Investing in health care in the face of an aging population seems a no-brainer. And companies that sell health-care supplies, run hospitals and make medical equipment have all been doing very well.
Mutual fund research firm Morningstar picks T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund (PRHSX) as the best of the bunch. Another inexpensive fund that has done well in this category is the Schwab Health Care Fund (SWHFX).
Health care companies, says Cassidy, will benefit from the aging trend and all of the new biotech discoveries likely to be brought to market in the next several years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060304/bs_nm/column_investing_dc
Buffett's Letter Eagerly Awaited
By NELSON LAMPE, Associated Press Writer
OMAHA, Neb. - The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in Omaha has been called a carnival in celebration of capitalism.
If so, chairman Warren Buffett's yearly letter to stockholders is his incisive, often witty and always candid invitation to share the wealth.
On Saturday, at 8 a.m. Omaha time, where the 75-year-old investing legend lives in a leafy neighborhood of stately brick or stucco-covered homes, his annual letter will be posted on the Berkshire Hathaway Web site.
A frenzy of downloading will follow from shareholders, stockbrokers and Buffett buffs alike, all eager to see what the "Oracle of Omaha" has to say about his decisions, his company's profit and his country's political or financial state.
Joshua Kennon, on his Web site for beginning investors, says Buffett's letters are regarded "as one of the most important and informative bodies of work ever written in the business and investing world."
"These are an absolute must read if you want to get involved in investing or corporate management," Kennon says.
Besides the informative nuggets of information Buffett shares, there are often humorous gems.
Here's a quote from 1996:
"And now we pause for our usual commercial:
"If you own a large business with good economic characteristics and wish to become associated with an exceptional collection of businesses having similar characteristics, Berkshire may well be the home you seek.
"Our requirements are set forth on Page 21. If your company meets them — and if I fail to make the next birthday party you attend — give me a call."
Andy Kilpatrick, who wrote "Of Permanent Value, the Story of Warren Buffett," said the first sign of good news in the annual report is where Buffett compares any gain in Berkshire's per-share book value to the annual return for the S&P 500.
Last year, for example, Berkshire reported a gain of 10.5 percent in 2004, only 0.4 percentage points behind the S&P 500 in what Buffett called a "remarkable year for the stock market."
Kilpatrick expects Buffett will be sharing good news on Saturday.
"He had a solid year — not a gangbuster year — but a solid year," Kilpatrick said.
Kilpatrick, who also is a stockbroker, said Berkshire took "a huge loss from hurricanes" Rita and Katrina in the third quarter, "but I look for the fourth quarter to be pretty strong."
In November, Berkshire estimated that its third-quarter losses from the hurricanes totaled $2.988 billion.
Berkshire reported that net income fell 48 percent to $586 million, or $381 per share, in the quarter from $1.137 billion, or $739 per share, in the third quarter of 2004.
Kilpatrick doesn't expect Buffett to discuss at length the indictments of three former executives of his wholly owned General Re subsidiary.
They pleaded not guilty in February to federal fraud and conspiracy charges.
The Justice Department has accused the three and a former top executive of American International Group of putting together a sham reinsurance transaction that allowed AIG to falsely report some $500 million in reserves against losses.
Buffett was interviewed by the Securities and Exchange Commission and New York state investigators in April, but has not been accused of any wrongdoing. Berkshire acquired General Re in late 1999.
"It seems to me that this is a handful of bad apples," Kilpatrick said.
"It's a tough issue for him. When you get a company with 180,000 employees, somebody's doing something wrong."
Other possible topics for extra review by Buffett this year:
• In the second-biggest deal in its history, a Berkshire subsidiary agreed to pay $5.1 billion in cash and assume $4.3 billion in debt and preferred stock to acquire electric utility PacifiCorp.
Only the $16 billion stock purchase of reinsurance giant General Re cost Berkshire more. Berkshire controls PacifiCorp's actual buyer, MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. of Des Moines, Iowa.
• In Berkshire's third quarter, it spent $1.8 billion to complete the purchase of two Indiana-based companies: Medical Protective Corporation, of Fort Wayne, Ind., which sells medical malpractice insurance, and Forest River Inc., of Elkhart, Ind., which makes recreational vehicles.
___
On the Net:
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com
Securities and Exchange Commission: http://www.sec.gov
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060304/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_berkshire
Hold On To Stocks If They Get Quick 20% Gain
Paul Whitfield Tue Feb 21, 7:00 PM ET
When a stock breaks out and races to a 20% gain within three weeks, an investor faces a choice.
Do you sell for a quick gain or sit tight for bigger gains?
IBD studies suggest that such fast movers should be held at least eight weeks. A stock that surges 20% out of the gate is showing tremendous strength.
Sometimes, though, context matters. Back in 1999, in the midst of the dot-com mania, a quick 20% gain didn't mean as much. On Oct. 14, 1999, IBD ran an article calling the quick 20% gain "a more fallible signal than in the past." Stocks were rising without any history of profits.
The investing climate is more rational today. The quick 20% gain is once again a reliable, sit-tight signal.
To give you an idea of the difference that rule makes, take a snapshot look at 2005. How many stocks on the IBD 100 list at the start of '05 shot out of a base with a quick 20% gain some time during the year? How did those stocks fare?
Among the IBD 100 stocks in the Jan. 3, 2005, issue, seven became quick 20% gainers after breakouts in '05. Only two were below that 20% gain at the eight-week mark. All went on to big gains.
Here's the score card:
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE:CME - News) broke out in June. It was up 21% in three weeks, up 38% in eight weeks and up 82% at its November high. There were corrections of 16% and 18% en route to the high.
Google (NasdaqNM:GOOG - News) broke out in October. It was up 20% in two weeks, up 31% in eight weeks and up 48% in January. It had single-digit corrections en route to its peak.
Marvell Technology (NasdaqNM:MRVL - News) broke out in November. It was up 22% in about two weeks; up 17% in eight weeks; and up 52% in January. It had single-digit corrections before reaching the summit.
Hansen Natural (NasdaqSC:HANS - News) had a breakaway gap in November. In two weeks, it was up 20% from the highest point in the gap, up 41% in eight weeks and up 80% in January. It had a 14% correction en route to its high.
Atlas America (NasdaqNM:ATLS - News) broke out in November. It was up 21% in two weeks and up 44% in eight weeks. It recently corrected about 12%.
Building Materials (NasdaqNM:BMHC - News) broke out in February 2005. It was up 20% in three weeks, up 19% in eight weeks and up 151% by October. It had several corrections of 8% to 22% en route to its apex.
Oil refiner and gas station operator Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO - News) broke out of a base-on-base Jan. 14, 2005. It then gapped up after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend on 72% higher volume (point 1).
The stock rose 23% in two weeks (point 2). In eight weeks, it was up 38%. A month later, it began a 29.5% correction (point 3). The stock then took off again and was up 145% by September (point 4). It hit a new high in early February before correcting again.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20060222/bs_ibd_ibd/2006221corner;_ylt=ApVAlPDmdD48KUZtcl_4vBCffbcF;_ylu...
Economists see first-half rebound -Fed survey
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private-sector economists expect economic growth to rebound in the first half of 2006 and anticipate the U.S. economy to steady in the second half, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Monday.
Economists raised their forecasts for annualized growth in real gross domestic product for the first and second quarter to 4.4 percent and 3.4 percent from 3.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. They expect growth for 2006 and 2007 at 3.2 percent, down from the previous estimate for this year of 3.4 percent, the bank said in its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters.
"These rates are the same as the forecasters' new estimate of average annual growth over the next 10 years, suggesting that they see little in the way of transitional dynamics in the U.S. economy over the medium and long run," the survey said.
Though the 53 economists polled expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.8 percent all year, they revised down their forecasts for average monthly payrolls growth in each quarter.
For the current quarter, economists lowered their prediction to 187,700 new jobs per month from the previous forecast of 199,000.
Economists expect inflation to stay contained, particularly in the first quarter of 2006. They expect a 2.0 percent first-quarter reading on the consumer price index on a year-over-year basis. For the year, CPI is seen averaging 2.4 percent.
Over the next 10 years, economists see economic growth averaging 3.2 percent a year, similar to their prior forecast of 3.3 percent made in the first quarter of 2005.
However, productivity growth is expected to slow slightly over the next decade to 2.44 percent compared with the previous estimate of 2.5 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060213/bs_nm/economy_fed_philadelphia_dc
follow-up stock streamers
Cnet offer appears outdated, email inquiry went unanswered, powered by b4utrade. Went directly to b4utrade site where offer is 1 month trial, after - $25/mo $250/annually (cnet offer was 15/150). Email inquiry has not been answered. End of testing.
Going with brokerage - powered by QuoteMedia
Investing: Don't get snowed in earnings season
(Linda Stern is a freelance writer. Any opinions in the column are solely those of Ms. Stern. You can e-mail her at lindastern@aol.com.)
By Linda Stern
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Confused by the bad news/good news of all those earnings reports? Here's how to skip the fluff and keep your eye on the important numbers.
That's not something that's easy for most individual investors, who can get lost in the flowery prose or the numbers writ large, or the tricks some companies use to spiff up their results.
"Investors should be wary of such attempts to window-dress bad news," warned Rebecca McEnally of the CFA Institute, a professional association of chartered financial analysts in a recent statement timed to ready investors for the current earnings season.
"Net income or earnings can be easily manipulated within the income statement," said McEnally, who runs the institute's policy and standards arm.
Her group listed several tips for individual investors who want to be a little bit more professional about their approach to the flood of earnings reports coming out now. There are other consumer investor tips on the group's Web site at http://www.cfainstitute.org.
Here are some habits they suggest.
-- First, look at the cash flow statement.
It's easier to fudge an income calculation than it is to fake actual money in the bank. The cash flow statement will let you see how much money the company actually raised during the reporting period, and how it was used.
If the company is claiming big increases in net income, but there's no corresponding increase in cash coming in, that should raise a red flag.
And "too much cash on hand" isn't exactly a red flag, but if there is no cash going out for research and development or capital equipment, maybe the company won't keep up its growth pace.
-- Keep a long view, and do the math.
The CFA Institute tells investors to keep historical spreadsheets for the key numbers of companies they track. That enables you to see whether a company's patterns are changing, if its growth is slipping, and -- if you create spreadsheets for its competitors, too -- if it is performing less well than other companies in its same industry.
-- Read the footnotes.
They may explain any tricks or contortions the company went through to get the sales and income figures it's reporting.
One-time charges, expenses not counted, and sales that are counted even though they are less than legitimate -- say, sales to regional distribution centers of the company but not to consumers -- can skew the numbers of a sickly company so that it looks good.
-- Keep perspective.
Look at the company's balance sheet and income statement in terms of dollars and also as a percent of total assets.
All those zeros may make it seem like the company has a very healthy bottom line, but when that number is held against all the inventory, equipment, expenses and debt facing the firm, it might seem less significant.
-- Compare similarities.
Compare a company's quarterly performance with its performance for the same quarter a year earlier, to account for seasonal changes. Compare a company's earnings growth and debt levels with the earnings growth and debt levels of its competitors.
Compare a company's sales figures with the sales figures generated by the same stores from a year earlier. A company that grows sales every year by opening new stores is spending a lot for those sales, and will some day run out of locations.
-- Read that earnings release.
The way the company talks about its financial situation may give you clues about how honestly it deals with problems and where it expects to go.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060128/bs_nm/column_investing_dc
follow-up stock streamers
AskChart site appears outdated and inquiry email went unanswered. No test.
Currently testing Yahoo real-time quotes.
It's nice having all the ports on my yahoo page real-time. You would need to refresh often.
Does not include pink sheets in real-time. Consistency I'm not sure about. Sometimes it beats my brokerage port (showing last real time sale) sometimes not. And sometimes real-time bid/ask is actually posted on a board before I see it on either Yahoo or my brokerage port.
This may be caused by my own internet connection since I run my laptop wireless.
All in all, for the price, it's pretty convenient.
I will, most likely, cancel Yahoo to test drive CNET. Offer is one month free trial.
Raft of Earnings to Test Bullish Wall St.
By MICHAEL J. MARTINEZ, AP Business Writer 13 minutes ago
NEW YORK - When stocks rise without any kind of correction, consolidation or profit taking, it increases the risk that when stocks retreat — and they always do — the fall will be more pronounced than it would otherwise. So last week's modest downturn after the Dow Jones industrials topped 11,000 for the first time in 4 1/2 years is considered very healthy. For one, it means that investors aren't falling prey to any irrational exuberance. And the fact that the markets ended slightly higher shows that bullish sentiment still prevails.
That sentiment will be tested in the week ahead, however, as the first crush of fourth-quarter earnings reports sweep the market. Given the positive sentiment on Wall Street, investors may be more inclined to buy if a company does well, but it's likely that they'll also be as unforgiving as ever if companies miss analysts' profit expectations.
In addition, important economic reports on inflation and consumers' moods are likely to affect trading in the coming week. Again, the overall mood on Wall Street remains positive, but only so far as inflation remains in check and consumers continue to increase spending.
Last week, the Dow topped 11,000 for the first time since June 2001, and the other major indexes also set multiyear highs as investors continued to anticipate an end to the
Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. But profit-taking ahead of earnings reports set in Thursday and Friday, limiting the gains. For the week, the Dow edged up 0.01 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.17 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index climbed 0.5 percent.
ECONOMIC DATA
A handful of key economic reports are due out the week ahead, the most important of which is arguably the Consumer Price Index, the Labor Department's measure of inflation on the retail level. The CPI, due Wednesday morning, is expected to rise 0.2 percent in December, up from a 0.6 percent decline in November. So-called "core" CPI, with food and fuel prices removed, is expected to rise 0.2 percent as well, on par with November's increase.
The market is particularly sensitive to inflation data right now, given that the Fed is only likely to stop raising rates as long as inflation remains low. Higher-than-expected increases in CPI could prompt more selling.
On Friday, the University of Michigan releases its preliminary report on consumer sentiment for January. The Michigan index is expected to rise to 93 from a 91.5 reading in December.
EARNINGS
Several hundred companies are reporting earnings in the week ahead, including Dow industrials Citigroup, IBM Corp., Intel Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Pfizer Inc.
Among the other prominent names to issue earnings this week, expected increased scrutiny for Apple Computer Inc., fresh off last week's MacWorld product announcements and bullish revenues. Wall Street is expecting nothing less than a blockbuster quarter, and Apple will have to deliver, especially after reaching a new all-time high of $85.04 last week. The company is expected to earn 62 cents per share for the quarter, up from 35 cents per share a year ago. Apple shares closed Friday at $85.59.
General Electric, another Dow component, is always a closely watched company — given it's presence in manufacturing, healthcare, finance and media, it's considered a microcosm of corporate America. The conglomerate is expected to earn 55 cents per share for the fourth quarter, up from 51 cents per share in 2004. Shares of GE have traded in a relatively narrow range of $32.67 to $37.34 over the past year, closing Friday at $35.10.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060115/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead
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Seek Companies With Quarterly Profit Growth Of 25% Or Better
Juan Carlos Arancibia Fri Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET
Earnings growth is the primary force that drives stock prices. So how much growth is good growth?
The answer: at least 25% quarterly earnings gains, measured on a year-over-year basis.
That's not an arbitrary figure. Studies of the most successful stocks of the past half-century show most had at least a 25% EPS increase in the most recent quarter before they broke out to a big price advance.
In fact, 25% should be considered a floor. For a lot of winning stocks, their pre-breakout quarterly EPS was 50% or higher, with some boasting triple-digit gains.
Three out of four of the best-performing stocks in IBD's market research showed EPS jumps of 70% or more in the quarter before they started their big price advances.
True, earnings expectations are largely "priced into" stocks. But the research's findings show that prior quarters' results have a much larger bearing on a stock's performance.
A company's earnings history is a factual, accountant-certified record of performance, while expectations are, well, expectations.
Why couldn't 10% or 15% growth be acceptable?
According to Zacks Equity Research, total earnings for the S&P 500 should end up about 10.6% higher for 2005 and 13.4% in 2006.
If you want an outstanding growth stock, you need a company that can outperform the general market.
The table above shows stocks that have achieved 25% or greater gains in each of the past five quarters. That should give you a good snapshot of the market's earnings leaders. It also shows there's no shortage of companies producing solid profits.
Bear in mind that outstanding earnings growth is not the only factor that makes a winning stock.
Sales growth, return on equity and profit margins also are important.
And don't forget that some hugely profitable stocks have already extended themselves past proper buy points, or may be lacking in terms of their price and volume action.
In the Jan. 3 issue of IBD, we listed the best stocks of 2005. Many of those had outstanding profit growth. Energy drink maker Hansen Natural (NasdaqSC:HANS - News), for example, soared more than fivefold in 2005.
After a strong first half of the year, a July-to-October base set the stock up for another big advance in the fall. While it formed its base, Hansen's EPS the prior four quarters ranged from 140% to 417%.
Earnings figures aren't difficult to find. Many financial Web sites provide them for publicly traded companies. The SEC's site (sec.gov/edgar.shtml) also has them.
IBD's Company Earnings Reports section publishes each day's profit announcements. Daily Graphs and Daily Graphs Online, sister products of IBD, include EPS numbers for recent quarters.
When researching earnings, try to compare operating earnings that exclude one-time items. Otherwise the numbers may be skewed by unusual events.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20060114/bs_ibd_ibd/2006113corner
Europe, US uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply
By Meg Clothier Sun Jan 1, 7:45 PM ET
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The United States said Russia's halting of gas supplies to Ukraine raised questions about use of energy as a political weapon, and European countries voiced concern their supplies could be hit at the height of winter.
Russia, taking over the G8 chairmanship for the first time this month aiming to promote itself as a reliable energy source, cut its neighbor's gas supplies on Sunday.
Moscow said it had no choice but to act after Kiev refused to sign a new contract that would have jacked up prices fourfold, ending the preferential treatment of Soviet days.
The Kremlin describes the dispute as a purely commercial matter. But Kiev sees an attempt to undermine its pro-Western government and says cutting Ukrainian supplies will undermine deliveries passing through the same pipeline complex to Europe.
The move appeared to be affecting deliveries to central Europe by early evening, with both Hungary and Poland reporting reduced deliveries.
Washington stepped into the row, with the State Department saying it regretted Russia's move.
"Such an abrupt step creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region and raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in a statement.
"The U.S. has encouraged a compromise solution, and we remain hopeful that a resolution will be reached between the two sides that provides energy security and predictability for all concerned."
Western Europe, where demand is near peak levels because of freezing weather, imports 25 percent of its gas from Russia, with most of that delivered by pipelines running across Ukraine.
The Russian state monopoly, Gazprom, said enough gas was still being piped via Ukraine to meet its commitments to other countries. If they were not getting all their gas, it said that meant Ukraine was tapping into it.
GAS PLEASE
Hungary's gas wholesaler MOL said its Russian deliveries via Ukraine had fallen by more than 25 percent, forcing it to order big consumers to switch to oil where possible. Poland also said supplies were down by 14 percent.
Germany's largest gas supplier, E.ON-Ruhrgas, warned there could be problems for big wholesale customers if the dispute dragged on.
"If the reduction in supplies should prove to be especially large or last for a long time or the winter turns out to be especially cold, then we will hit the limits of our capacities," chief executive Burckhard Bergmann said on Sunday.
German, Italian, French and Austrian energy ministers have made a joint appeal to Moscow and Kiev to keep gas flows steady and an emergency European Union meeting is due on Wednesday.
Western-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is trying to take his state into the EU and NATO. This annoys Moscow, which does not like the idea that its influence over the former Soviet Union might be waning.
Ukrainian officials say that is why the Kremlin is punishing Ukraine with a huge price increase while giving Moscow-friendly ex-Soviet states such as Belarus a much easier ride.
Yushchenko, struggling to live up his people's high hopes after the "Orange Revolution" a year ago, says Ukraine is prepared to pay more for its gas -- but will not agree to a big jump all at once. Moscow wants to raise the price to $230 per 1,000 cubic meters from the current $50.
Ukraine had threatened to retaliate by raising the rent that Russia's navy pays to use the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol as headquarters for its Black Sea fleet.
It also says it is entitled to skim off 15 percent of gas to cover transit fees, but Gazprom is accusing Ukraine of siphoning off gas destined for Europe illegally.
Ukraine still has gas thanks to reserves and the country's own modest output and officials say there is enough in store to see households through the winter.
But they are making no comment on the security of supplies to industry and shortages could begin to bite within days.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060102/ts_nm/russia_ukraine_dc
Energy tops '05 stock sectors, telecoms worst
Sat Dec 31, 3:22 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. energy stocks sharply outperformed other sectors in 2005, as oil prices hit record highs following Hurricane Katrina, while telecommunications and consumer discretionary stocks were among the year's worst performers.
Energy sector stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GSPE - news) ended the year up 29.1 percent and utility sector (^GSPU - news) stocks rose 12.8 percent, while the telecommunications services sector (^GSPL - news) fell 9 percent and consumer discretionary (^GSPD - news) fell 7.4 percent. For the year, the S&P 500 index ended 3 percent higher.
Within the energy sector, oil and gas refining and marketing companies as a group gained 77.3 percent, while oil and gas exploration and production companies rose 64.7 percent.
"These are the year's big winners," said Kevin Kruszenski, head of listed trading at McDonald Investments Inc. in Cleveland, Ohio.
Oil prices rose to a record $70.85 a barrel on August 30 as Hurricane Katrina slammed into the U.S. Gulf Coast, damaging oil and gas facilities. Energy prices eased since then, with NYMEX February crude futures settling at $61.04 on Friday.
But those gains helped shares of energy companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news), the world's largest publicly traded oil company, which ended the year up about 10 percent. Oil field services company Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL - news) rose more than 50 percent for the year.
"It was the combined factor of Iraq, and the real squeeze on (oil) demand," said John O'Brien, head of sales trading at KeyBanc Capital.
Later in the year, "energy lost some of its luster because the scenario put forth by bulls had so many holes in it. Demand has not exceeded supply, and energy prices went down," said Ned Riley, CEO and CIO of Riley Asset Management. The energy sector fell 7.7 percent in the last quarter of the year.
Higher oil prices, meanwhile, were among factors that hurt consumer discretionary stocks, including automaker shares.
"The rising price of gas heavily impacted where the discretionary dollar was going," O'Brien said. "Gasoline at $3 (a gallon) really freaked people out."
Kruszenski said the consumer discretionary group has "been a tough one. It seems everywhere you turn everybody is talking about a consumer that's tapped out."
Telecommunications services were hard hit as well, as the number of traditional phone lines declined and operators faced increasing competition from cable television providers.
"I think that new technologies are starting to challenge some of the old technologies," said Thomas McManus, equity strategist at Banc of America Securities.
Verizon Communications's stock (NYSE:VZ - news) is down about 25 percent for the year.
Health care (^GSPA - news), which ended the year up 4.9 percent, and financials (^GSPF - news), which gained 3.7 percent, followed energy among top performers. Other gainers included the materials sector (^GSPM - news), up 2.2 percent for the year, consumer staples (^GSPS - news), up 1.3 percent, information technology (^GSPT - news), up 0.4 percent, and industrials (^GSPI - news), also up 0.4 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051231/bs_nm/markets_year_stocks_sectors_dc
Large Broadcast and Cable TV Operators Best Situated to Profit From Digital Television Bill, Says S&P Equity Research
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051222/nyth085.html?.v=31
Quotes:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CMCSA+CMCSK+DIS+HTV+MCCC+MHP+RCNI+TVL+TWX+YBTVA&d=t
DNA AMGN GENZ TRCA INSM THLD INHX
2006 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK -- THE BEST PLAYS
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_52/b3965435.htm
Biotech Bets
For risk-takers, these companies could bring big payoffs
Just six months ago gloomy biotech executives used terms such as "nuclear winter" at an industry conference to describe how poorly their stocks were performing. But soon after, major players such as Genentech Inc. (DNA ) and Amgen Inc. (AMGN ) began reporting good news, ranging from strong sales of current products to promising data on experimental drugs. Their fortunes boosted the entire sector: The Amex Biotechnology Index soared 20.1% from July 1 through early December. In that same period the Standard & Poor's 500 Health Care Index (S5HLTH ) crept up just 1%.
Despite the bounce, the sector's leading analysts say bargains are out there for those willing to take on a lot of risk. Most biotech companies are still racking up losses as they struggle to get their first products approved by the Food & Drug Administration. Without profits, it's impossible to judge a stock on such tried-and-true measures as price-earnings ratio. Even a hint of bad news can send a company's shares tumbling.
To vet the sector, start with the biotechs that are profitable. Analysts are especially high on giant Amgen. Despite a 27.3% runup in the stock since July, it trades at about 77, or 21 times its expected 2006 earnings. The Thousand Oaks (Calif.) company is ringing up double-digit sales growth on its drugs to treat anemia and rheumatoid arthritis, and its pipeline includes potential blockbusters for cancer and osteoporosis. Yet the ratio of p-e to its estimated long-term growth rate (PEG) is 1.51 -- a steal compared with Genentech, which is trading at a PEG of 2.27. Another biotech large cap, Genzyme Corp. (GENZ ), is slightly more pricey than Amgen but could pay off for long-term investors. Analysts expect the Cambridge (Mass.) company to continue to bolster its lead in treating enzyme disorders.
When it comes to finding values among smaller biotechs, one strategy is to look for companies whose share prices seem out of whack with their revenue prospects. Tercica Inc. (TRCA ), for example, is about to launch its first drug, which treats a form of short stature in children. A Dec. 12 approval of Insmed Inc.'s (INSM ) competing drug sent Tercica's shares down 29%. Still, analysts estimate Tercica's sales could peak at $200 million. Even though the Brisbane (Calif.) company has nothing in the near-term pipeline, "a one-product company is less risky than a no-product company," says Eric Schmidt, an analyst for SG Cowen & Co. With the stock trading at about 7, Tercica's market capitalization is just $222 million, or 1.1 times expected sales. Most biotech stocks trade at four times sales or more, and Tercica's could catch up.
SLEEPER STOCKS
Analysts also are enthusiastic about biotechs that are developing drugs for under-treated diseases. Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. (THLD ) of Redwood City, Calif., is working on a treatment for pancreatic cancer and a drug to treat enlarged prostate -- which affects nearly all men over 60. Yet it's trading 17% below analysts' mean price target.
Among the biotechs that recently made their debut on the Street, a handful may be below-the-radar winners. Many biotech initial public offerings have flamed out of late, causing other new -- but more worthy entrants -- to fall, too. One example is Inhibitex Inc. (INHX ), an Alpharetta (Ga.) company that went public in 2004 and is in the late stages of developing a drug to treat infections in premature infants. Christopher Raymond, an analyst for Robert W. Baird & Co., estimates that if the drug hits the market in 2007, it could pull in $150 million in sales a year by 2010. That makes the stock, which trades at 8.13, worth 15, he says.
While biotech's dreary days are past, the potential for bad news from any one company always looms large. Still, for an investor with a penchant for risk, the sector offers rich returns.
The 10 Highest-Rated Stocks Under $10 - by Investor's Business Daily (IBD)
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/low1205_05.html
posted by BoomTime @ Ken's
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8741941
Ken's seasonal template:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8771557
Hi JC
It is good to see you. I just board marked you so don't be surprised if I drop by and say hey occasionally. I am working on a fourth setup that is showing great promise. I will keep you posted on the results of it. See you later. Off to work.
Ken
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BusinessWeek Hot Growth Companies 6/05 (via Boom Time @ Ken's Seasonality Stock Reports board)
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8437724
http://www.businessweek.com/pdfs/2005/0523_hotscore.pdf?campaign_id=spr_yahoo_hotgrowth05
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Prices Make Biggest Jump in 25 Years
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON - Consumer prices soared last month by the biggest amount in a quarter-century, propelled by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the record gasoline costs in their wake. The storms caused industrial production and consumer confidence to plunge, raising new worries about the economy's ability to bounce back.
The Labor Department reported Friday that inflation jumped 1.2 percent last month. Ninety percent of the increase came from a record-shattering 12 percent surge in energy prices, reflecting tight supplies after widespread shutdowns of refineries and oil and natural gas production along the Gulf Coast.
Those shutdowns contributed to 1.3 percent drop in industrial production in September, the biggest falloff in 23 years.
On the consumer front, retail sales managed to eke out just a 0.2 percent gain in September which would have been a 0.2 percent decline if it had not been for a jump in gasoline sales that reflected the soaring prices that went above $3 per gallon. Much of the weakness reflected a big drop in auto sales after two big months of incentive-induced sales.
The jolt to energy prices from the hurricanes continued to have an adverse effect on consumer confidence, sending the University of Michigan's index down further in mid-October to a 13-year low of 75.4, just the latest evidence that the widespread hurricane devastation was roiling the national economy.
"All these statistics reflect the full force of the hurricanes on the broader economy and we will probably have another month of ugly statistics," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, an economic consulting firm.
In news for retirees, the inflation figures mean more than 48 million Americans will get a 4.1 percent increase in their monthly
Social Security checks next year, the largest in 15 years. That increase, linked to consumer prices, will mean a gain of about $39 a month.
In yet another report, the administration said the federal deficit hit $319 billion for the budget year just ended, down from last year's record red ink but likely to rise again in 2006 because of Katrina-driven spending.
The big jump in inflation last month hit the 80 percent of the workforce in non-supervisory jobs, who saw their average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, fall by a sharp 1.2 percent, the third straight monthly decline, the Labor Department said in a separate report.
While the headline numbers were much worse than expected, some economists insisted that buried inside the reports were reasons to believe that Katrina and Rita will represent a brief bump with the economy resuming stronger growth next year.
The so-called core rate of inflation, which excludes energy and food, posted a modest 0.1 percent increase, better than the 0.2 percent rise that had been expected and the sixth straight month of a benign reading for underlying inflation.
On Wall Street, investors were relieved to see that inflation outside of energy remained well-behaved. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 70.75 points Friday to close at 10,287.34.
"Energy prices are about to leave the solar system, but where is all the other inflation?" asked Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
But other economists worried that surging energy costs will soon become embedded in other prices as businesses try to pass on to consumers their higher costs for shipping and materials.
"Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research in New York. "The aftershocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe."
The worry is that if inflation pressures become more widespread, the
Federal Reserve, which has been content so far to raise interest rates at a gradual pace, might become more aggressive in hiking rates to fight inflation.
At the White House, officials expressed confidence that Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan and his colleagues will be able to manage interest rates to keep inflation under control and the economy moving forward.
Many private economists insisted that they had seen nothing in the government data so far that would cause them to change their forecasts that the hurricanes will shave about three-quarters of a percentage point from growth in the last half of this year and that loss will be made up next year with massive government and private spending to rebuild the devastated areas.
Job losses from the two storms now total 438,000, including an additional 75,000 hurricane-related claims filed last week. But analysts said they believe hurricane-related claims have peaked and will begin declining in coming weeks.
The 12.1 percent surge in energy prices, the largest on record, was led a 17.9 percent jump in gasoline prices, also a record, and gains of 12.1 percent in natural gas prices and 12.7 percent for home heating oil.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051014/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
___
On the Net:
Consumer prices: http://www.bls.gov
Retail sales: http://www.bea.gov
Ridgeland, MS, OCT 07, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- President Bush hosts a Pandemic Summit today where he will meet with execs from CHIR, MEDI, GSK, MRK, SNY & WYE. Shares of these summit participants are mostly higher in pre-market trading. Other companies tied to the vaccination industry that may have already seen "bird flu rallies" include: DVAX, GMED, HEB, NNVC, NVAX, VRA & VXGN.
CHIR 43.27
MEDI 33.51
GSK 51.40
MRK 26.83
SNY 42.02
WYE 46.07
DVAX 6.45
GMED .045
HEB 2.23
NNVC .21
NVAX 2.19
VRA .54
VXGN 15.35
Tulane University business professor Peter Ricchiuti has given Barron's Magazine a list of 10 small-capitalization stocks that will profit greatly from the clean-up of hurricane Katrina. They are MPX, ENSI, GIFI, TMI, IBKC, SPN, SGR, FFEX, POWL and CRFT
MPX 11.15
ENSI 28.48
GIFI 27.12
TMI 23.15
IBKC 51.65
SPN 19.88
SGR 22.00
FFEX 10.24
POWL 20.92
CRFT 19.48
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