Stock Incubator

[dalcindo]

Re: XEU:USD - Still: Watch for significant rally per daily chart.

Overnight, XEU:USD has reached a significant nadir BELOW 1.44 (Low: 1.4328).

As discussed before, dailu USD charts still favor a continued rally of the USD, HOWEVER, I do expect an interim XEU:USD rally in the 5-min, 15-min, and 60-min charts with the following 50% Fib targets:

5-min: 1.43736

15-min: 1.44597

60-min: 1.45505

Overall: LONG XEU:USD for the short term; SHORT XEU:USD for the mid-term - All IMHO.

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: XEU:USD - Watch for significant rally per daily chart.

Technically, a sustain breakdown in the pair has brought secondary indicators to taut ovrsold areas.

Between the 25 NOV peak @ 1.5144 and 15 DEC low @ 1.4503 would have Fibonacci place his grid at the following significant levels, IMHO:

38.2% = 1.4747

50% = 1.4823

61.8% = 1.4898

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: PDMI - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts:

I agree. It seems that PDMI does not have the right drill tip for what appears to be a reinforced cement channel ceiling: The PPS is stubbornly stuck within the confines of a predominant bearish channel:

PDMI - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:



PDMI - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:



PDMI - 60-Month, MOTHLY Chart:

[langlui]

I got in at .0024 but seems like it just won't break .003

[dalcindo]

Excellent ... While I was sleeping, of course.

Thanks Lang!

D,

[langlui]

hey D, PDMI News

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Paradigm-Medical-Announces-iw-657569961.html?x=0&.v=1

[dalcindo]

Re: USD vs. XAU (gold) vs. EUR:

Overview: At close of last week, USD's daily secondary indicators were lining up into a pre-decline pattern. This raised the question whether the USD is resting from a short-term rally before continuing its dismal descent. At this week's open, I will venture to say that the USD is weakening, as per its delay chart pattern, as well as that of XAU and EUR.


USD
Today, at a new week's open, the USD seems to confirm this break-down pattern, as the USD closed today at the level of last week's half candle height.

Still, bullish support prevail in the daily USD chart, as indicated by this currency's continued buoyancy over its 5,9,21-EMAs, which have remained positively lined-up.

Technical hurdles ahead are:
1 - RSI's inability to cross over its 60-line. This alone is a very bearish sign of weakness, as it continues to indicate the market's inability to shore up more buyers;
2 - 90-EMA overhead resistance;
3 - Strong pre-decline pattern
4 - ADX's D(-)/(+) lines favoring a renewed strengthening of a bearish strenth, especially at the current D(-) level combined with ADX's rise. This particular rise would indicate a gain in a new or renewed strength in trend. If D(-) rises with ADX, then make that a renewed bearish strength.

OVERALL, leading and combination of indicators are favoring a bearish strength, unless the first three hurdles are negated, IMHO.

XAU
NOTE: As a corollary to above view, consider that gold (XAU) walk in inverse, but lock-step fashion with the USD. So, the bearish inkling that I alluded to above can also be viewed from the point of view of XAU, which at the onset of this week's open as gained a significant technical "traction" at the current support line.

Technically, XAU's weekly 14-RSI remains extremely bullish, keeping itself above its 50-line as well as its 45-EMA. At the same time, price touched and closed above a significant support line, while CCI and Wm%R have remained similarly in bullish territory. Whether this bullish pattern is likely to hold over the rest of this and other weeks ahead is unsure, as ADX has since dwelled within a non-trending range.


EUR
The EUR daily chart remains bullish, as the price closed at a significant support level. While RSI broke down steeply, it still remained optimistic within its 80-40 bullish range. A test below the 35-level would likely spell further weakness ahead, though. For now, secondary indicators are favoring a rally, whose significance against the dollar will decide whether the pair will continue to fall or rise.


EUR vs. USD:
Finally, XEU:USD chart indicates an interim break-down within the intermediate bullish channel, wherein it fell down into its lower half. Correspondingly, price closed and remained above its 90-EMA while all other indicators have maintained a bullish bullish. Here, we find similar patterns as in the XEU daily chart, to suggest that whatever strength the USD is gaining has not been significant enough to distort the lone XEU chart from its relative strength against the USD. I believe that this in itself suggests that the USD has not gained the momental strength needed to reverse the predominant rally seen over the past weeks between the pair, IMHO.

For now, let's sit back and enjoy the thinning of the year.

Happy trading to all, my friends.


USD - 12-Month, Daily Chart:



XAU - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



EUR - 12-Month, Daily Chart:



EUR vs. USD - 12-Month, Daily Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Article - Abu Dhabi lends $10 billion to Dubai

4:36am EST

(Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BD0EE20091214 )

DUBAI (Reuters) - Abu Dhabi stepped in to help fellow United Arab Emirates member Dubai on Monday with a $10 billion injection, of which $4.1 billion was allocated to troubled state-owned conglomerate Dubai World to pay immediate obligations, Dubai said on Monday.

The bailout was the least expected of all options Dubai had on the table after requesting a standstill on $26 billion in Dubai World debt on November 25, alarming markets and shaking the image of the emirate as a regional business hub.

The U.S. dollar jumped against the yen on the news, while Asian stock markets rebounded.

--------------------------------------------------------------

COMMENTARY:

JOHN SFAKIANAKIS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANQUE SAUDI FRANSI-CREDIT AGRICOLE, RIYADH:

"This is kind of above and beyond what people expected. It is a crucial and essential lifeline ... it at a time when the markets really needed.

"That should bring in a lot of confidence, basically Abu Dhabi is footing the bill.

"It will take time for the implications to unfold. I highly doubt this kind of money has no strings attached.

"There was no other choice for Abu Dhabi but to bailout Dubai, the federation would have been at stake.

"But there are still debt issues still looming in 2010 and 2011.


DELPHINE ARRIGHI, SENIOR RATES STRATEGIST, STANDARD CHARTERED:

"The Dubai sovereign spread should narrow significantly toward the Abu Dhabi one. All the names in the region should benefit from restored confidence.

"The move will be quite dramatic, and should be accelerating the relatively tighter liquidity to year-end."


JUN KATO, SENIOR CHIEF ANALYST, SHINKIN CENTRAL BANK RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO

"The announcement eased concerns about the Dubai debt troubles to some degree, but it will likely be temporary and the positive impact on stock and currency markets seems to be short-lived.

"Players in the currency market took the announcement as an excuse to cover short positions in cross/yen. It is premature to say the Dubai debt problem is solved, and the yen's gradual appreciation is what the market is about now." ABHEEK BARUA,


CHIEF ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, NEW DELHI:

"This was sort of anticipated: if they had defaulted on this it would have led to a fairly major crisis. Right after the problem broke, the fiscal authority had indicated that at least this tranche would be sort of supported and bailed out by the government.

"This will lead to some degree of stability at least temporarily. This is just the beginning, the tip of the iceberg. There is a lot more that needs to be done and we are getting to hear more and more entities with outstanding liabilities and it is not that easy to bail them out. So this comes as a relief, but more of them are anticipated.

"The market was a little jittery about this so there could be a little bit of dollar reversal and a pick up in risky assets. I would see this as positive for the markets ... all non-dollar assets."


GLENN MAGUIRE, ASIA PAC CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOCIETE GENERALE:

"Dubai was always a reminder of a lingering risk event. overleveraged to invest in real estate and significant decline in asset value was what subprime was all about.

"What we have seen out of that is several institutions and sectors globally will have to deleverage. Indeed for many years to come, we will need to see governments and central banks will to step in to facilitate the deleveraging process. This is a reminder this deleveraging process will be a continuing dynamic in coming years. The pricing out of the Dubai risk event has largely been completed. I don't think this is going to make people more risk tolerant."


RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI:

"This is good news as funding support from Abu Dhabi to Dubai World is quite substantial and would best serve the interest of all stake holders in the coming months. As for Bank of Baroda, there was no immediate concern as we did not have any exposure to Nakheel (but) this has certainly improved the risk-reward profile for all banks operating within Dubai. which is an important global financial center."


ASHRAF LAIDI, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CMC MARKETS, LONDON:

"This is big news, triggering a very aggressive rally in risk appetite and equities. But markets are likely to remain skeptical...

"Combining this positive Dubai news along with a likely 'no change' in the FOMC statement (this week) we could see a short-term retreat in the U.S. dollar, but I think markets are going to be remain tense.

"The way to play this is this news is going to shore up European stocks at the open. We could see another wave of dollar selling in Europe. But I don't know how sustainable it is."


STEPHEN ROBERTS, ECONOMIST, NOMURA, SYDNEY

"The Dubai World news takes away one uncertainty that had led to a U.S. dollar pullback. It has repercussions across the world and not just the Middle East. It has given a fresh impetus to investors to buy risk and when anything like that happens, it tends to support the Australian dollar."


JEONG MY-YOUNG, FX STRATEGIST, SAMSUNG FUTURES, SEOUL

"U.S. stocks futures are rebounding and this is lifting Asian stocks and pressuring the dollar against the euro. These factors are prompting investors to reduce dollar positions in favor of emerging-market currencies like won."


FAHD IQBAL, GULF REGION STRATEGIST, EFG-HERMES:

"It was one of the options that was outlined. There was a lot of uncertainty of what was going to happen, but we didn't put this as among the highest possibility.

"We should see a positive reaction from the stock markets, there should be an initial rebound but the longer term outlook doesn't necessarily change things.

"We still have other concerns with regard to other obligations, with regards to the hit in confidence that Dubai has taken."


MARKET REACTION:

-- the yen fell sharply against other major currencies after Dubai said it had received $10 billion from Abu Dhabi to help it repay $4.1 billion in an Islamic bond maturing on Monday.

- The dollar shot up to 88.90 yen after the statement from around 88.50 yen. The euro also jumped to 130.43 yen from around 129.40 yen.

- Credit default swap (CDS) spreads tightened slightly. The Asia ex-Japan iTraxx investment-grade index was 2-3 basis points (bps) tighter at 98/100. South Korea was slightly tighter at 88 bps and the Philippines 2 bps tighter at 165/175 bps. Dubai CDS quotes were not yet available in London markets.

(Reporting by Amran Abocar; Additional reporting by Reuters bureaus across Asia; Editing by Inal Ersan & Kim Coghill)

© Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.


--------------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

http://bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[dalcindo]

[dalcindo]

CAC, DAX, FTSE, HSI, NIKK, STI - WEEKLY Charts:

Bearish weekly RSI almost uniformly on all these broad international market indices:

CAC - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:


DAX - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



FTSE - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



HSI - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



NIKK - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



STI - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

F/U: $XEU vs. $USD; $USD vs. $XAU

A follow-up on this pair. At the onset of trading this sunday afternoon (around 3pm central time), the pair has rallied from the taut oversold position it reached at last week's close.

Fibonacci - 3-Hour Chart, Central time zone
A fib grid drawn from the high on 11 DEC 2009 (H = 1.47703) @ 7am to 11 DEC 2009 (L = 1.45993) @ 10am sets a 50% retracement at 1.46776.

Turns out that this significant 50% retracement just got validated within the first hour of this 3-hour trading timeframe, when the high reached 1.46779.

I am looking for a break thru the 62.8% retracement for a more bullish rally of the pair, indicative of a strengthening of the EURO against the Dollar.

As indicated in the prior entry (see link above), the charts are blatantly favoring a decline of the pair, whereas the USD charts alone are indicating a strengthening of the USD, but a shallow weakening of the EURO.

Additionally, $XAU (GOLD index) is also reaching a significant support, a sign that its paradoxical currency pair (i.e.: the USD) may be "basing", rather than continuing its expected rally.

So, OVERALL, I am expecting an interim rally of the pair for the short term, but a high probability for a decline in the longer timeframe.

Hope this answer your prior inquiry more straight-forwardly.

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $XEU vs. $USD

Hi, RTN!

USD? Bullish in the mid-long term:
As you may have read, I have been charting the USD, XEU, and the pair (XEU:USD) with a strong bias in favor of the US Dollar since last October when the pair reached the bottom of a year-old MONTHLY channel (dated: 12 SEP 2008). Since then, I also compared the development of the USD as it evolved bullishly against gold (XAU), which recently declined at the same time as USD rallied (see prior post on the technical comparison).

In the 10-year, MONTHLY USD chart (see: first chart) below, I highlighted what I perceived as relevant momental lines (dashed blue) whose patterns provided reliable support/resistance and trigger signals over the past several years. At this point, I believe that the USD is poised to continue its gain over the EURO - But the course of this development might not be as straight forward as the monthly and the weekly charts indicate (see first TWO charts below), IMHO.

Hence, this caveat: Although it seems technically "necessary" for the monthly and weekly USD charts to bring the green back from an oversold area (See: "Pre-Rally Pattern" in these two charts), the daily chart suggests that this rally is likely to be choppy in the more immediate timeframe.

In fact, while the DAILY RSI broke out into new bullish trend, it failed to cross over the 60-level TWICE by the close of this past week. At the same time, a "Pre-Decline Pattern" is lining up in the secondary indicators, which speak contrary to the rally expected in the monthly and weekly chart, as discussed above.

Pitting the two currency indices against one another continues to provide a nice graphical interpretation of their relative strengths when compared to actual forex trading.

The Arm-Wrestling of Relative Strengths: So, the XEU:USD daily and weekly charts (graphical data are only added at EOD; see: charts #5 & 6 below), there is a similar visual sense that the charts are now "naturally" coming down from an overbought situation when XEU was furiously gaining against the dollar.

HOWEVER, the DAILY relative strength charts is already posting oversold signals. To add credence to the probability of resistance against USD ahead, consider also that the WEEKLY chart's secondary indicators are also nearing oversold signals as well, suggesting that the USD rally might not be as straight-forward.

In fact, viewed from the perspective of the EURO itself, the EUR daily and weekly charts have printed significant technical events, which also suggest some real opposition to the USD's rally:
1 - The DAILY XEU closed the week at a significant support level, whose line has gained several validation over the past year; so to break through this would require some significant bearish sentiments against the XEU, and ultimately in favor of the USD - It does not look favorable to the USD from this technical perspective, IMHO;
2 - The WEEKLY XEU chart shows a similar close at a technically significant support line - Although this one may not appear as clear, a look at the RSI also suggests that the recent downturn has not yet reached any bearish reversal signals, as RSI remains clearly over the 50-line.


It's Only All Sentimental Values: Finally, since this market relies mainly on sentimental projections (speculating whether the USD should go up or down), I like to graph sentimental ETFs, such as the PowerShare USD Index BULLISH and BEARISH Funds, as well as their relative strengths (See charts #9 to 11 below).

First, take a look at the bearish fund, or UDN - Although it took a hit, the chart now prints oversold data, positive divergences, and what I consider pre-rally patterns in the secondary indicators. Overall, this UDN chart favors a strengthening of the BEARS on the USD.

Second, looking at the sentimental BULLS, the rally of that particular chart points to the 90-EMA line which continues to play an important resistance on this bullish ETF. How strong was this rally then? I am a narrow-minded RSI user when it comes to answering these questions: I see that here too, the rally has brought the RSI to the 60-level, but failed to cross it by close of week - This is an ominous sign, IMHO. In addition, besides a significant a pre-decline pattern formation, both the A/D and ChiOsc lines are returning from lower highs, . This is still not relevant, though, until they clearly fail to stay above their respective 21-EMA.

Third, the relative strength chart of these two opposite sentimental Funds (UUP vs. UDN, see last chart below) highlights the same technical short-comings allude in the UUP comments above.

Although my reply was not short, and pretty convoluted, it still indicates the subtleties that one may consider before "betting" on one currency vs. the other. I am a pure technical trader, and forex provides one of the best applicable environment for such classics as trendlines, Fibonacci and other numerology feasts.

Sorry for this lengthy reply. I am hoping that the interpretation of each chart and how they fit together makes sense to you after all is said. It does to me, but I can see how it may appear as non-sense madness to another.

I hope you have a great trading week.

Dalcindo

Chart #1 - USD - 10-Year, Monthly Chart:



Chart #2 - USD - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



Chart #3 - USD - 12-Month, Daily Chart:


Chart #4 - $XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily



Chart #5 - $XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily Chart:



Chart #6 - $XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart:



Chart #7 - XEU - 12-Mo., Daily


Chart #8 - XEU - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



Chart #9 - $USD ETF Down (UDN): PowerShares DB USD Index Bearish Fund - 12-Mo., Daily



Chart #10 - $USD ETF Up (UUP): PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish Fund - 12-Mo., Daily



Chart #11 - UUP:UDN Relative Strength 12-Month, DAILY Chart:



- Dalcindo


------------------------
Message in reply to:
D. could you comment on USD vs EURO for the shortterm and mid/longterm again ?
Might be good to switch more to dollars again?
------------------------

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 14 DEC 09:

Bucking Bull:
CGR Claude Resources Inc. AMEX
MEDG MediaNet Group Technologies Inc. NASD
PHIE Providential Holdings, Inc. NASD
Count: 3

Bull Pop:
CYCC Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. NASD
Count: 1

ROW x STO:
HYTM Hythiam Inc. NASD
Count: 1

Have a great trading week!

- Dalcindo

[read_this_n0w]

D. could you comment on USD vs EURO for the shortterm and mid/longterm again ?
Might be good to switch more to dollars again?

[dalcindo]

Stock On Watch: INIX - Daily Chart:

INIX is persistently testing upper border of bearish channel; RSI remains bullish; all institutional buying signals (A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines) remain above their 21-EMA support line.

Outlook = BULLISH

INIX - 12-Month, Daily Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $RIFIN - Daily Chart:

RIFIN testing bullih channel midline; RSI remains < 50-line while MACD is turning up - Lots of mixed signal; outlook remains persistently BEARISH per RSI:

$RIFIN - 12-Month, Daily Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $WTIC - WEEKLY Chart:

$WTIC remains within trading pattern range per this WEEKLY chart; bearish channel continues its validation.

BEARISH Outlook per following:
1 - RSI failed support;
2 - CCI breaks zero floor
3 - Slo STO returns to new YEARLY low ever its March 2009 rally;
4 - PPO rolls over; histogram prints negative
5 - ADX in non-trending range, but let D(-) dominate:

$WTIC - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: GELYF - Watch for reaction rally per PPO x ADX

Currently @ 0.5650

D.

[dalcindo]

Re: STWG - Watch for rally on 15-minute chart; expecting a small pop per PPO x ADX.

Currently @ 0.04250.

Target low: 0.0410

D.

[dalcindo]

(TYPO) Re: ANYT - 12-month, Daily Chart:

------------------------------------
TYPO error; should have read ANYT, not MCSR (which was the name of the IHub member; Sorry.
------------------------------------

Opened at 45-daily EMA = 0.026:

ANYT - 12-month, Daily Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: QQQQ - Top 4 Holding: AAPL, QCOM, MSFT, GOOG:

Whereas QQQQ continues to submit to selling pressures, AAPL (see line chart insert below QQQQ's candle chart), seems caught within a narrow trading range (grey dashed channel). A bottom channel break would be an ominous sign for AAPL and the QQQQ, IMHO.

The next two AAPL charts (WEEKLY and MONTHLY), each indicate a significant upper resistance and break of support, respectively:

QQQQ - 12-Month, Daily Chart:



AAPL - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



AAPL - 5-Year, Monthly Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: MCSR - 12-month, Daily Chart:

Not "ripe" yet; still remains a possible break-out fake, IMHO - See annotation in Chart:

12-month, Daily Chart:



- Dalcindo


---------------------------
Message in reply to MCSR who wrote:
Keep your eyes open on ANYT. News out today.
---------------------------

[dalcindo]

Stock on Watch: ARNA - Position trading opportunity developing over the next 1-2 weeks.

D.

[dalcindo]

Stock On Watch: STWG

D.

[read_this_n0w]

Per WSP, my error

WH ticker

[dalcindo]

Re: USD vs. XAU - Dollar and Gold Trade Pairing

(Refer to link above for chart and recent technical forecast)

$USD finally met its nadir (so far) as it bounced off of its bullish channel bottom. In concert, $XAU peaked and conversely fell of of its high after reaching its channel upper border.

Interesting, the MONTHLY chart indicates that USD rally but got stomped at the momental resistance trendline (see: "Short (s)DTC - 15 NOV 09").

Correspondingly, the DAILY chart indicates a significant resistance trendline affecting that rally, keeping the DAILY USD still under bearish influence.

Finally, a DAILY XEU:USD relative strength chart (very useful as a "truth serum", so to speak), confirms the advance of the green back against the "New Old World" currency. Technically significant here is the validation of 25 NOV 09 bullish mid-channel.

Oanda, here I come ...

V/r,

Dalcindo

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Message in reply to:


$USD - 10-Year, monthly Chart:



USD - 12-Month, Daily Chart:




$XAU - 10-Year, Monthly Chart:




$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily:




Message in reply to:

Re: USD vs. XAU - Dollar and Gold Trade Pairing

Hi, Buddiee18!

Do you have a linked reference to that article - I found it very interesting and line with my recent remarks on the $USD and its precious dance partner, $AUX: USD is at or near the bottom channels and AUX is in a same, but opposite situation elative to its own channels (Monthly and weekly charts below):

$USD - 10-Year, monthly Chart: RSI remains in its bullish range despite the serious decline; price hit its lower channel border; ADX is picking up momentum while (+)DI is readying an up-turn. Also, check out the PPO respecting a rising trendline and about to roll up:



USD - 12-Month, Daily Chart: In this DAILY chart, look for recent violation of a short downtrend, as the price is preparing to break over its 21-daily EMA. This bullish event is supported by RSI going for a break of the 50-line following a long tedious rising support line, while (+)DI is turning positive and ADX is signaling a new uptrend. Finally, bullish divergences and new heights from secondary indicators are giving further credence of a new bullish reversal:



USD - 36-Month, Weekly Chart: Here, another weekly chart to indicate the extreme relative position of the dollar against its channels and the low from late 2007. A relative strength line chart of $XEU vs. $USD further highlights the gain and near reversal situation we have reached as of this past trading week. PPO x ADX and Slo STO are adding stereophonic alarm ssounds here that a reversal is just about to start:



$XAU - 10-Year, Monthly Chart: Here, a reversal image projection is provided by $XAU, where its extreme high and near/at upper border channel position is indicating pretty loudly a critical reversal point has been reached.



$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily: Here a relative strength chart pitting the pairs provide additional bearish tone in favor of the US Dollar: RSI provided consecutive bearish divergences until late, when it rallied but failed to break over its 60-level, a pretty bearish signal relative to recent price pairing developments. I believe that the last confirmatory event would occur once the 45-daily EMA is violated; but there is plenty evidence to believe that a bearish trend is underway, IMHO:



$XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart: Here, the same but broader timeline is afforded by this WEEKLY chart, where the relative position of the pair vs. the bearish channels further heralds a bearish trend we have been expecting over the past weeks (See relative comments on my "Stock Incubator" board, where I regularly follow and comment on these particular development).

NOTE: Other chart to review, but not posted here for the sake of sparing your precious time are relative weakness/strength in the directional USD index funds, UUD and UUP respectively. Finally, consider looking into these two index funds relative strength for added sensitive directional clues. All these charts are posted on my stockcharts.com public list http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281"; rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >HERE:


Thank you for reading my charts. Your daily votes on stockcharts.com bottom page of that link are feeding my charting addictions, so thank you for voting.

- Dalcindo


--------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Returning Gold to the Earth...




Roughly one month ago – the week of October 19th – we at the Residual Income Report issued a missive entitled "The Best Play on Gold 'Strength'," wherein we invited our respected readership to engage in a 'zero premium' trade using Hecla (NYSE:HL) and the ishares silver trust (NYSE:SLV) call options. The trade, you'll recall, had an initial cost outlay of precisely nothing (excluding commissions) through the simultaneous purchase and sale of equally priced calls of Hecla and SLV, respectively.

At that time of writing, the Hecla January 5 calls and the SLV January 19 calls each traded for $0.65. The situation today is as follows:

• Hecla's January 5's trade for $1.00, and
• SLV's January 19's are fetching $0.45

Closing the trade today means pocketing a spread of $0.55 on each pair opened. Not bad for 'nothing ventured' save commissions.


But is now the time to close the trade?


We at the Residual Income Report claim no crystal ball, but we have reason to suspect that the latest bull run in the precious metals – and gold, specifically – has gored its last banderillero. A resumption of the long term, up-move is certainly in the cards for a later date, but we smell an intermediate trend correction now in the making that may last for months.

Consider the following:

The U.S. Dollar, against which gold is priced and about which all the gold huckster newsletter peddlers have been spewing their vitriol, is making signs of bottoming. Look here:






What appears to be a double bottom is now forming, and we'll continue to view it as such until a break below the 75 level is seen. Conversely, any move above the last retracement high at 76.5 should confirm the dollar's reversal, as the move would also take place above the 50 day moving average.

Now look at gold over the same time frame:







While the dollar index was forming a double bottom, gold was etching successive new highs, indicating increasing action on the part of the gold bulls – and not just see-saw action vis-à-vis the dollar. The question is thus posed: have the gold bulls gotten overexcited here? Are they banking on a gold future that's based on reality? Or have those feverish gold hobgoblins who prowl the internet finally managed to loosen the investment public's moorings and set them a'sail on a similar, hysterical 'end of all fiat currencies' sea of dreams?

We'll soon see. We'll also see what kind of guts those same gold holders have if and when the dollar reverses and all the dollar shorts run to cover. At that point, the spike in the dollar could be breathtaking. And gold holders will be stripped, whipped and sold for dog food.

Click Here to Comment - Voice Your Opinion...


Who's impressed by the gold moonshot?


Silver has also refused to confirm gold's breakout. There are a number of reasons for this. First and most important is there's an oversupply of the silvery stuff. Second, is silver already had an explosive move off intermediate lows set in July of this year – a move that garnered roughly 35% in value for that poor cousin of gold. Look here:







The above is the last six month's trade in the gold and silver ETFs, imperfect proxies for real bullion to be sure, but good enough for us to make a comparison.

The salient aspect of the chart comes in gold's rising to new highs and silver failing to confirm. Make no mistake: there's no rule that says silver has to confirm gold's highs with new highs of its own. Anyone who claims as much is a liar. Just another arrow in the quiver, though: against the dollar and fellow precious metal, silver (not to mention platinum and palladium et al.), gold has broken from the pack and made a romp of it.

Until now.


If this is a currency story


Sorry to say, but just like the gold shills we also believe that gold is a currency. And just like all other currencies, it's subject to its rises and falls, to all the excesses and vicissitudes and arrogance of the traders who play it. And right now, friends, we'd venture to say our golden king of all currencies is looking a bit stretched. Time to back off and take some scratch from the table, as they say. Time to look for a new bus.

For those who executed the 'zero premium' trade of one month ago, we have a great new move in the offing. We'd love to be able to boast something as creative as that first trade; sorry to say, though, the need to make money trumps even creativity.

So here it is, folks: we're simply reversing the trade.

No money down (save commissions), and it looks as follows:

• Buy the January Hecla 5 puts at $0.55, and
• Sell the January SLV 16 puts at $0.54 in equal numbers.

The total trade, net commissions, provides a credit of $1.00 per pair traded.

***We repeat here that the trade should be initiated with no more than 3% of one's portfolio dedicated to the total value of the short options.***


Can I do the trade with a different miner?


As to why we've chosen to work with Hecla, the answer is straightforward. Hecla possesses the highest beta that we're aware of among the universe of options-eligible gold and silver miners.

Beta is the investment term used to describe a stock's volatility with respect to the overall market. A beta of '1' indicates a stock that moves up and down line with the broad market. A beta of 0.5 indicates a stock that moves precisely half as much as the market. So, for example, if the S&P 500 were up 4% on a given day, a 0.5 beta stock would be expected to rise by 2%. A 1.5 beta stock would move 6%.

Here's Hecla compared to a number of widely traded precious metals companies:





Hecla swings.

A breakdown to the $15.50 to $15.75 area for silver could see a floodgate of selling on the silver miners. If we get there, the profits will be formidable.

The Residual Income Report recommends immediate purchase and sale of equal numbers (pairs) of the January Hecla 5 puts and January SLV 16 puts, respectively. At no cost to you.

Because money can be created ex nihilo!

Matt McAbby
Senior Analyst

[dalcindo]

Hi, RTN!

Very nice bunch of burgeoning sprouts - Nt able to pull WSP chart, but requested it through stockcharts.com for listing.

Make sure to post this on Option WonderLand discussion board; these would offer excellent trading material, IMHO.

Thanks!

D.

[read_this_n0w]

A few to watch for bottom

CWTR
FONR
ZAGG
WSP
SMSI

Likely to move up later on RTK

[dalcindo]

Re: QQQQ: AAPL, QCOM, MSFT, GOOG - Daily Chart:

As AAPL, QCOM, MSFT and GOOG have ascended to new highs, a recent top-congested pattern in the line chart is now calling for a probable decline: While QCOM has already taken the lead in the decline - recently followed by AAPL - MSFT and GOOG are now expected to come down as well, IMHO.

NOTE - There is a great pattern trading opportunity developing as QCOM remains within the descending channel in the line chart below QQQQ.

Technically, A significant support has developed along the dashed blue line in this persistently rallying QQQQ daily chart. However, an equally significant bearish trendline is weighing on QCOM in concert with RSI's negative divergences (i.e.: double top, followed by a cleared negative divergence).

QQQQ - 12-Month, Daily Chart:



Just cleaned up charts on my public list here. Feel free to visit other stocks and indices at your leisure.

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 07 DEC 09:

Bucking Bull:
CRIS Curis, Inc. NASD
RYQG Royal Quantum Group, Inc. NASD
TRBD Turbodyne Technologies Inc. NASD
Count: 3

Bull Pop:
IDOI IDO Security, Inc. NASD 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 100915651
Count: 1

ROW x STO:
Count: 0

Have a great trading week!

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: AAPL - Bearish

Yes, AAPL is at critical resistance levels, has been topping off, breaking through supports, and now starting to roll over:

AAPL - 36-Month, Weekly Chart:



AAPL - 60-Month, Monthly Chart:



- Dalcindo


------------------------------------
Message in reply to:

AAPL looking weak,
time to fall
------------------------------------

[dalcindo]

Re: PDMI - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts:

Hi, Tony!

Agreed, PDMI is fermenting something with some serious accumulations going on. Momental lines/channels are still getting validated, and most indicators remain bullish - Looking forward to next week or so, as you also mentioned.

The corollary with BIEL seems that it has behaved much the same way with regards to price and respective 13,21-50-(exponential) moving averages, with the difference that BIEL may be used as a potential bullish pattern for PDMI to follow. But, all we can say at this point is that PDMI remains taut by sustained buying interests, allowing its charts to keep on looking bullish. But, I certainly wish that PDMI pattern mimicks BIEL's at the end - BIEL is still 25 time the market cap of PDMI, and its product and sales territory make it difficult to compare the two.

Trading PDMI purely on technicals at this point:

12-Mo., Daily Chart:



36-Mo., Weekly Chart:



60-Mo., Monthly Chart:



- Dalcindo


------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Hi Dalcindo, Have you seen the Weekly PDMI chart play the 13 ema and 13 sma are about to cross the 50 sma we should see and nice kaboom on the pps when this happens in about a week, It may be time to load the boat here and buy on any pull backs and dips, the weekly pdmi chart play seems to be likely come pair to the weekly biel chart play imo! please check my theory???

[dalcindo]

Re: INIX - Well, like I mentionned in the link ... Congrats to those who flew along.

note hw rally validated upper border of bullish channel. Again, congrats to the INIX bull riders.




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Stocks On Watch: GSRE, INIX

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $INDU - WEEKLY Chart: BEARISH

However strong the rally may have been, I thought it noteworthy to point out two significant technical points in the WEEKLY $INDU chart:

First, if there was any one ultimate point that a rally could have reached since $INDU's MAR 2009 low, recent price highs may then have been it. Taking a look at an extension of Fibonacci's grid to its significant 161.8% correlates well with recent highs around the 10330's, where price seems to have taken residence.

Second, at the very level where that same rally occurred, the RSI has indicated some statistical market fatigue where buyers are thinning out as it repeatedly failed to reached the significant 70-level. Correspondingly, MACD's histogram is returning to its zero-level while its signal line is pointing towards a likely bearish trigger.

OVERALL - Had the chart been a daily timeframe, all would be (still) well, but the momental significance of these prices point towards a strengthening of a bearish force that is likely to turn things back to whence they came.

Sentiment = BEARISH

Please, come visit more of these broad index charts at the signature link below. Thank you for reading.


$INDU - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $COMPQ, TRIN, Nasdaq H/L & A/D - 3-Year, Daily Chart:

RSI transitioned from its bullish 80-40 range to a recent descent into a transitional "sideways" 40-60 range. The next few days will define a directional trend towards a bullish resumption or bearish confirmation.

However, signs of weaknesses already exist within the Nasdaq High/Low and Nasdaq Advance/Decline lines, where tapering off or weakening of their uptrends have occurred.

Price itself reached a technically significant point, where the upper border of the bearish channel has been validated and price has bounced off bearishly. Primary indicator RSI was already signaling repeated bearish divergences, along with MACD.

TRIN, a respectful sentimental indicator, has completed two spikes above its trendline, and recently closed at the prior spike levels.


OVERALL - The 50-Daily EMA has recently provided yet another support, but its continued violation could define a bearish reversal signal when combined with all other bearish indicator alarms:


$COMPQ, TRIN, Nasdaq H/L & A/D - 3-Year, Daily Chart


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 30 NOV 09:

Bucking Bull:
InstaCare Corp. NASD
PWRM Power3 Medical Products, Inc. NASD
Count: 2

Bull Pop:
Count: 0

ROW x STO:
MFGD Money4Gold Holdings, Inc. NASD
VOIS VOIS Inc. NASD
Count: 2

Have a great trading week!!!

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $XAU - Topped-Off, Monthly and Weekly Charts:

$XAU seems to have reached a significant top in both monthly and weekly charts:

$XAU - 10-Year, MONTHLY Chart:



$XAU - 36-Month, WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $GASO - Weekly Chart;

$GASO trading within tight range:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[dalcindo]

Re: GTXI, LIZ, YRCW

Hi, Xxx!

GTXI has wound-up springs, BUT (-)DI is given too much time to return to its lows. Had it stayed longer - or better yet - above ADX, then I would consider it a great bull potential. Still, all other indicators remain favorable for a rally, but it lacks that potential energy that could otherwise shoot it back into the gap, IMHO.

LIZ - Still looks like it aims for 4.0 level. Daily ADX is giving impetus to (-)DI, while other secondary indicators are remaining under their 21-daily EMA, which is not favorable set-up for a rally. For now, i'd say that if 4.5 fails, then 4.0 would repreent the strongest support. If 4.5 HOLDS, this would give time for RSI and other secondary indicators to for a pre-rally pattern that I seek in rallies, IMHO.

YRCW - Here, it seems that the rally has already been underway, and CCI, Wm%R are "consumed". I use the 9-daily and 21-daily EMAs for price continuation patterns on certain charts. This particular charts seems fit for it. Also, I would pay particular attention to the influence of 9-daily EMA on price, and relative position of 9-daily and 21-daily EMA's - Both of these circumtances seem to have been reliable in determining a directional clue for this chart, IMHO.

- Dalcindo

-------------------------------------------
Message in reply to (PM):

What you think of GTXI LIZ and YRCW?
-------------------------------------------

[dalcindo]

Re: USD vs. XAU - Dollar and Gold Trade Pairing

Hi, Buddiee18!

Do you have a linked reference to that article - I found it very interesting and line with my recent remarks on the $USD and its precious dance partner, $AUX: USD is at or near the bottom channels and AUX is in a same, but opposite situation elative to its own channels (Monthly and weekly charts below):

$USD - 10-Year, monthly Chart: RSI remains in its bullish range despite the serious decline; price hit its lower channel border; ADX is picking up momentum while (+)DI is readying an up-turn. Also, check out the PPO respecting a rising trendline and about to roll up:



USD - 12-Month, Daily Chart: In this DAILY chart, look for recent violation of a short downtrend, as the price is preparing to break over its 21-daily EMA. This bullish event is supported by RSI going for a break of the 50-line following a long tedious rising support line, while (+)DI is turning positive and ADX is signaling a new uptrend. Finally, bullish divergences and new heights from secondary indicators are giving further credence of a new bullish reversal:



USD - 36-Month, Weekly Chart: Here, another weekly chart to indicate the extreme relative position of the dollar against its channels and the low from late 2007. A relative strength line chart of $XEU vs. $USD further highlights the gain and near reversal situation we have reached as of this past trading week. PPO x ADX and Slo STO are adding stereophonic alarm ssounds here that a reversal is just about to start:



$XAU - 10-Year, Monthly Chart: Here, a reversal image projection is provided by $XAU, where its extreme high and near/at upper border channel position is indicating pretty loudly a critical reversal point has been reached.



$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily: Here a relative strength chart pitting the pairs provide additional bearish tone in favor of the US Dollar: RSI provided consecutive bearish divergences until late, when it rallied but failed to break over its 60-level, a pretty bearish signal relative to recent price pairing developments. I believe that the last confirmatory event would occur once the 45-daily EMA is violated; but there is plenty evidence to believe that a bearish trend is underway, IMHO:



$XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart: Here, the same but broader timeline is afforded by this WEEKLY chart, where the relative position of the pair vs. the bearish channels further heralds a bearish trend we have been expecting over the past weeks (See relative comments on my &quot;Stock Incubator&quot; board, where I regularly follow and comment on these particular development).

NOTE: Other chart to review, but not posted here for the sake of sparing your precious time are relative weakness/strength in the directional USD index funds, UUD and UUP respectively. Finally, consider looking into these two index funds relative strength for added sensitive directional clues. All these charts are posted on my stockcharts.com public list HERE:


Thank you for reading my charts. Your daily votes on stockcharts.com bottom page of that link are feeding my charting addictions, so thank you for voting.

- Dalcindo


--------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Returning Gold to the Earth...




Roughly one month ago – the week of October 19th – we at the Residual Income Report issued a missive entitled "The Best Play on Gold 'Strength'," wherein we invited our respected readership to engage in a 'zero premium' trade using Hecla (NYSE:HL) and the ishares silver trust (NYSE:SLV) call options. The trade, you'll recall, had an initial cost outlay of precisely nothing (excluding commissions) through the simultaneous purchase and sale of equally priced calls of Hecla and SLV, respectively.

At that time of writing, the Hecla January 5 calls and the SLV January 19 calls each traded for $0.65. The situation today is as follows:

• Hecla's January 5's trade for $1.00, and
• SLV's January 19's are fetching $0.45

Closing the trade today means pocketing a spread of $0.55 on each pair opened. Not bad for 'nothing ventured' save commissions.


But is now the time to close the trade?


We at the Residual Income Report claim no crystal ball, but we have reason to suspect that the latest bull run in the precious metals – and gold, specifically – has gored its last banderillero. A resumption of the long term, up-move is certainly in the cards for a later date, but we smell an intermediate trend correction now in the making that may last for months.

Consider the following:

The U.S. Dollar, against which gold is priced and about which all the gold huckster newsletter peddlers have been spewing their vitriol, is making signs of bottoming. Look here:






What appears to be a double bottom is now forming, and we'll continue to view it as such until a break below the 75 level is seen. Conversely, any move above the last retracement high at 76.5 should confirm the dollar's reversal, as the move would also take place above the 50 day moving average.

Now look at gold over the same time frame:







While the dollar index was forming a double bottom, gold was etching successive new highs, indicating increasing action on the part of the gold bulls – and not just see-saw action vis-à-vis the dollar. The question is thus posed: have the gold bulls gotten overexcited here? Are they banking on a gold future that's based on reality? Or have those feverish gold hobgoblins who prowl the internet finally managed to loosen the investment public's moorings and set them a'sail on a similar, hysterical 'end of all fiat currencies' sea of dreams?

We'll soon see. We'll also see what kind of guts those same gold holders have if and when the dollar reverses and all the dollar shorts run to cover. At that point, the spike in the dollar could be breathtaking. And gold holders will be stripped, whipped and sold for dog food.

Click Here to Comment - Voice Your Opinion...


Who's impressed by the gold moonshot?


Silver has also refused to confirm gold's breakout. There are a number of reasons for this. First and most important is there's an oversupply of the silvery stuff. Second, is silver already had an explosive move off intermediate lows set in July of this year – a move that garnered roughly 35% in value for that poor cousin of gold. Look here:







The above is the last six month's trade in the gold and silver ETFs, imperfect proxies for real bullion to be sure, but good enough for us to make a comparison.

The salient aspect of the chart comes in gold's rising to new highs and silver failing to confirm. Make no mistake: there's no rule that says silver has to confirm gold's highs with new highs of its own. Anyone who claims as much is a liar. Just another arrow in the quiver, though: against the dollar and fellow precious metal, silver (not to mention platinum and palladium et al.), gold has broken from the pack and made a romp of it.

Until now.


If this is a currency story


Sorry to say, but just like the gold shills we also believe that gold is a currency. And just like all other currencies, it's subject to its rises and falls, to all the excesses and vicissitudes and arrogance of the traders who play it. And right now, friends, we'd venture to say our golden king of all currencies is looking a bit stretched. Time to back off and take some scratch from the table, as they say. Time to look for a new bus.

For those who executed the 'zero premium' trade of one month ago, we have a great new move in the offing. We'd love to be able to boast something as creative as that first trade; sorry to say, though, the need to make money trumps even creativity.

So here it is, folks: we're simply reversing the trade.

No money down (save commissions), and it looks as follows:

• Buy the January Hecla 5 puts at $0.55, and
• Sell the January SLV 16 puts at $0.54 in equal numbers.

The total trade, net commissions, provides a credit of $1.00 per pair traded.

***We repeat here that the trade should be initiated with no more than 3% of one's portfolio dedicated to the total value of the short options.***


Can I do the trade with a different miner?


As to why we've chosen to work with Hecla, the answer is straightforward. Hecla possesses the highest beta that we're aware of among the universe of options-eligible gold and silver miners.

Beta is the investment term used to describe a stock's volatility with respect to the overall market. A beta of '1' indicates a stock that moves up and down line with the broad market. A beta of 0.5 indicates a stock that moves precisely half as much as the market. So, for example, if the S&P 500 were up 4% on a given day, a 0.5 beta stock would be expected to rise by 2%. A 1.5 beta stock would move 6%.

Here's Hecla compared to a number of widely traded precious metals companies:





Hecla swings.

A breakdown to the $15.50 to $15.75 area for silver could see a floodgate of selling on the silver miners. If we get there, the profits will be formidable.

The Residual Income Report recommends immediate purchase and sale of equal numbers (pairs) of the January Hecla 5 puts and January SLV 16 puts, respectively. At no cost to you.

Because money can be created ex nihilo!

Matt McAbby
Senior Analyst


----------------------------------------------------------------

[dalcindo]

Weekly Scans - Week of 23 NOV 09:

Bucking Bull:
NXG Northgate Minerals AMEX
Count: 1

Bull Pop:
CYTR CytRx Corp. NASD
INO Inovio Biomedical Corp. AMEX
Count: 2

ROW x STO:
INO Inovio Biomedical Corp. AMEX
MFGD Money4Gold Holdings, Inc. NASD
Count: 2

Have a great trading week!!!

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

MEMO - New (correct) Sig

[dalcindo]

MEMO - New Sig

[dalcindo]

Re: FTWR

WEEKLY chart looks fantastic, but daily chart looks like it still wants to decline a bit.

DAILY chart provides excellent set of reversal patterns, all indicative of imminent rally, IMHO.

D.

[Gator-Trader]

FTWR - Now this is the kind of pick I am looking for. It is ready to bound off the 200ma. We need a board to makes only these kind of positive picks.

[dalcindo]

Stock On Watch: ACAD, ACLS, ARNA:

The following stocks have been on watch for sometimes now for their technical worthiness, availability in option, and recent significant technical development (bearish/bullish channel validation with high probability of counter-move):

ACAD - 12-Mo., Daily Chart:



ACLS - 12-Month, Daily Chart:



ARNA - 2-Mo., 60-Min Chart:



- Dalcindo

PS: Feel free to check out my StockCharts.com public list in the signature link - Votes are always appreciated. Thanks!

[dalcindo]

Re: FTWR: Very BULLISH

FTWR - RSI shows positive reversal sign (stronger than classic bullish divergence, IMHO) per weekly chart: Very BULLISH, IMHO, especially when considering all other secondary indicators in use: CCI, WmR%, CMF, PPO/ADX, A/D line, OBV and ChiOsc. Then, add the current bullish divergences in DAILY RSI + PPO + ChiOsc = a pounding bull, IMHO.

- Dalcindo

--------------------------------------
Message In Reply To:
FTWR DSTI GSX you like any of those for continuation? or just one day wonder?
--------------------------------------