Stock Incubator

[read_this_n0w]

Since there is a lot of open interest on put options, i expect september to close strong near expiration though before a possible further retrace this fall.

Option makers still the giants amongst the big boys.

[dalcindo]

Re: SPX: Recovery or Slippery Fall?

Hi, xxx!

(DAILY and WEEKLY charts below)

FUNDAMENTALS ARE BEARISH:
World economies are each trying to climb out of the slippery depth, fully knowing that they are chained with one another.

Fundamentally, news from China is lackluster, Europe is now expressing concerns that the down-turn in the US economy will likely affect its own economic regeneration from the recent recessionary depth, and finance ministers in the old world are recommending further cash injection into the banks, while Portugal, Italy and Greece are raising renewed concerns about their ability to further reduce their respective debt.


TECHNICALS REMAIN BEARISH:
SPX remains tethered to the confines of its bearish channel. Although current futures are posting green (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/), I stay my bearish position expressed in a prior board entry, where I mentioned that the overriding trend is bearish.

Similarly, $VIX remains in its channel as well, with upper and lower borders getting hit in lockstep with SPX's own tops and bottoms of its own channel.


SPX, VIX - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:



SPX - 10-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



$SPX - 36-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo



--------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
what's in store for the S&P this coming week? and next week ?

tia
--------------------------------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: RISK FLOW MAP



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $INDU- BEARISH; Target: $8,500.00

Hi, Lang!

$INDU has come under significant bearish pressure. In fact, 2 overhead resistance elements are likely to act as iron-clad obstacles for this index. The first one corresponds to the 50% Fib level borne out of the decline between OCT 2008 MAR 2010. The second one is the indice's own weekly 200-EMA.

Additionally, evaluating the recent H&S formation of this index over the period of NOV 2009 to today, one may reasonably project the technical target for this expected bearish trend to rest at $8,500.00, which - if anything - gains further weight as a whole psychological value. But, most importantly, note also that this target rests right on the line that was once defining the neckline of the inverted H&S formation.

It may take some time to see the completion of this technical development, if ever. But, however speculative this may be, it does seem possible that the trend will bring us down there, in one form or another. A break below the current neckline would likely unleash a crowd of bears, IMHO:


$INDU - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $SPX - Stalling at H&S Neckline:

Whether or not the $SPX is setting up for a renewed decline is a matter under development. However, the chart below is shaping up to conclude a Head and Shoulder formation. As this is forming up, recent decline has stalled at what may act as this formation's neckline.

This chart will remain as is until further market events invalidate this technical formation. Please free to re-visit this chart occasionally here (3rd chart down on page 1): http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $NYA - 30-plus Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $BIX - BEARISH

Next target opening down below is the 50% Fib = $106.47, unless price is able to rally, but historical resistance is coming down ever closer, reducing likelihood of any significant rally, IMHO:


$SBIX - S&P Bank Index - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
The US Banking System is heading for a big fall
(Gold_Lunatic) Aug 24, 21:43

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84120221275

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18197693067

Consequently, there will be a panic flight to gold and silver.






A reliable correlation: T-Bond Yields vs US$...and POG projection
(OPUS-DEI) Aug 24, 21:41

The chart is testament T-Bond Yields have danced the tango with the US$ during the last 10 yields.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00566905855

The trends of T-Bond Yields and the US$ have heretofore been downward on-balance during the past decade. And IMO there is nothing on the horizon to alter this. In fact the T-Bond Yield looks to retest its Dec2008 low of 25. Consequently, the US$ Index should fall approx 30% to about 58 (if it maintains the same direct correlation with T-Bond Yields).

How might a 58 US$ Index translate to the gold price?

The Gold vs US$ chart below demonstrates that gold rises on-balance +13% for every -1% decline in the US$ Index. Therefore, this implies the gold price could theoretically rise +390%. This would suggest a gold price close to $5,000/oz.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33724276475

Frankly, I think $5,000/oz gold is much too much to expect. Nevertheless, that's what the charts and numbers imply.

Historical Note:
During Jimmy Carter's Presidency, the price of gold soared well over 400%.

Gold 1976-1979 during Carter’s Presidency
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/king031504e.gif


GOLD STOCKS ORBIT DURING CARTER'S PRESIDENCY

Barron's gold Stocks Index soared over 900% during Carter's 4-year Presidency (notice chart is in Log scale) - Click chart when you see it to make larger.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/zlongwlog.php?ticker=^BGMIW





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---------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $USD, GOLD - Dollar On Brink Of Rallying ... Or Else, Go GOLD:


As of this EOD (24 AUG 2012) in DAILY chart below, the Dollar index closed at $83.14 after vacillating around its 38.2% Fib level (calculated from bottom of late DEC 2009 = $74.23 to rally top of early JUN 2010 = $88.71).

Today's corresponding RSI at EOD printed 57.57 from a deep rally in early AUG 2010. If RSI showed any weakness over the next several days, one should be concerned about the index inability to complete an EARLY bullish reversal signal, which should be achieved ideally with an RSI topping ABOVE its 66.67 mark. Note that the qualifier and operative word is EARLY reversal signal. Completion would later be achieved with a RSI decline and rally from ABOVE the 40 mark.

While concerns over the European market are lingering (i.e.: weakness in Germany, renewed concerns about Greek banks, today's S&P downgrade of Ireland debt), there are domestic concerns within the US that may cause further risk aversion AWAY from the US Dollar, which may be considered as a diverging event, considering that broad or world market risk aversions have usually sought out safe heaven in the greenback.

In light of such divergence, one should suspect that the ultimate beneficiary might be GOLD.

As mentioned in a earlier post, look for GOLD reaching its $1,300 level if such scenario was to unfold:


$USD (Dollar Index) - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:




$GOLD - 20-Yr., MONTHLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: BEARISH MARKETS

Hello, Tony!

Short answer: Feel free to peruse, cut and paste charts in this link: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

Long answer: The charts I have drawn contain channels and trends dating back to 2008. The directional trends are either indicated in COLOR over the RSI, or have a framed qualifier, such as "Weakening Rally", or "Bearish".

You will notice that on a pure objective interpretation of the RSI (Using John Hayden's method, upon which I have depended reliably for several years), broad US market indices (on pages 1, 2, 3, and 4) have printed these two qualifiers already months ago.

Whereas the markets - especially the benchmark S&P500 - have shown capable to rally several times, one should notice that the tops are lower, while the RSI is confirming a bearish reversal signal.

By BEARISH reversal signal, one has to respectfully use Hayden's definition, which is a rally of the RSI from BELOW the 33.33 RSI level, but failing to rally ABOVE the 66.67 level, followed by a continuation in the decline. The inverse is true for a BULLISH reversal signal. I have not been able to observe any stronger reversal confirmation than through this LEADING indicator.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, RSI works in lockstep with price, but in algorithmic pace. I could not fathom using any other leading indicator, although there are many out there that merit consideration and judicial use. For my use, RSI remains the best interpretation of market sentiment, direction, reversal signaling, and trend confirmation.

So, considering the charts in the link above - especially the WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, where the mass of traders, investors, institutional monies, ... etc, have collectively move the market en mass towards a consensual direction - one could not mistake the trend heralded by the RSI and the chart's secondary indicators (here, consider A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines as institutional buying/selling interests for visual indicators of buying trends as they compare to their respective 1-EMA lines).

Hope this answer your question.

Best,

- Dalcindo


----------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Hi good evening Dalcindo thank you most kindly my friend for your Technical reply most Informative.

Thank you for the RSI and the methodology.

I keep seeing articles that by October or November the recession will be pretty evident and that may be when markets fully price it in. Do you have any downside targets for S&P for that time period.

Or do I stick with the RSI methodology.

Or maybe both.

I have some concerns about the stability of the US and world markets taking a dive again or double bottom recession.

Using the RSI methodology I should see It coming.

I like your RSI methodology very much make very good sense to me, and can I use the RSI as a market Indicator.

Dalcindo what I am asking Is there signs of the market heading for a double dip recession, In the market like we had a year ago.

Thank you for helping, god bless and always the best of trading.

[dalcindo]

Re: Russell 1000 Fins, Russell 2000 iShare - Lost Support:

... Remember our recent "Early BEARISH signal per RSI" in reference to the IWM (Russell 2000 iShare, NYSE) chart (See link)? Well, technical support just failed. Timber!

$RIFIN - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:



IWM - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $SPX - On the brink of support violation ...

As we are opening a new trading week, the following WEEKLY S&P500 chart is suggesting a very decisive trading session.

As of this writing (0210am on Monday 23 AUG 2010), this benchmark is sitting right at the lower border of its bullish channel.

Two weeks ago, we pointed out a BEARISH RSI per 14-RSI's failure to rally above its 45-EMA.

The next technical litmus test rests upon this critical step - whether SPX will break through its support and continue its tethered course within the BEARISH channel, or contradict its recent bearish course and remain within the confines of its bullish channel.

As always, time will tell.

- Dalcindo

$SPX - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:

[dalcindo]

Re: HALO - BULLISH

Looking at the chart I drew last DEC 2008, it's nice to see how well the technicals have held for this pharma.

Price continues to hold above the midline of the bullish channel:

HALO - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[read_this_n0w]

HALO 6.60 Roche still investing 190mln to adopt their technology in Roche Plants and Roche still has rights on a total of 10 drugs to use with halo dermal technology

[dalcindo]

Renko are very useful, but not as a leading indicator, although price is the leading element its its formation, there remains the fact that the tick has to "wait" to meet its up-tick or down-tick condition. But once printed, it is very reliable.

D.

[IIIverson]

GOOG - Daily Renko... I know we already discussed the RENKO charts uselessness (j/k) but i cant help but to look at them!

[dalcindo]

Thanks, IIIverson.

But like anything else, it's just ONE opinion among many others.



D.

[IIIverson]

Def one to watch... nice chart, should be a GREAT long term buy if we get to the lower $400s. Thanks as always for your opinions!

[dalcindo]

Re: GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:

In the big picture, the H&S is inverted, but lacks the "body" in the upper part of this anatomy. Meaning that there are no preceding body from which the left shoulder, the head, and now the right shoulder has formed.

The lack of precedence would make it less probable for this H&S to get validated, IMHO.

Instead, I believe that the historical high in late 2008 and recency-low in late 2009 (see chart below) have bracketed the most significant borders within which the crowd psychology will play heavily. Technically, the convergence at high and low points have defined significant borders for the bearish and bullish channels.

I just re-drew below a weekly $GOOG chart for the big picture since inception:


GOOG - 7-Yr., Weekly Chart:


- Dalcindo


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Posted by: IIIverson Member Level Date: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 11:07:16 AM
In reply to: dalcindo who wrote msg# 2068 Post # of 2074 Send a link via email Share on Facebook Tweet this post
Dalcindo, while I agree about the bearishness of GOOG and chart it almost the same way... I was cant help but notice the BIG PICTURE looks like a REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS... over the last 3-4 years. Its def the long term BIG PICTURE but it would mean that GOOG would head back up from here...

Just a thought. I always try to look at it from all angles.
---------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[IIIverson]

Dalcindo, while I agree about the bearishness of GOOG and chart it almost the same way... I was cant help but notice the BIG PICTURE looks like a REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS... over the last 3-4 years. Its def the long term BIG PICTURE but it would mean that GOOG would head back up from here...

Just a thought. I always try to look at it from all angles.

[dalcindo]

Re: XOMA - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:

Chart insert TA reads:

17 AUG 22010 - TECH-NOTE:
1 - RSI indicates sellers in control
2 - Secondary indicators remain bearish
3 - Selling pressure demonstrated in A/D and OBV lines below their 21-EMA
4 - Market makers are the only element on the buy side, as indicated by ChiOsc crossing above is 21-EMA
Overall: BEARISH
Caveat: Look for trend violation to the upside in RSI and bearish channel boundaries.

XOMA - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.23.10

Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/bank_research/2010/08/16/Bank__Research_Consensus_Weekly_08.16.10.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Monday, 16 August 2010 17:19 GMT

By Michael Wright, Currency Analyst


There's no mistaking the slowing in incoming US economic indicators, ranging from past consumer spending and income to employment and forward-looking orders. And we are mindful of the downside risks to growth, noted below. But extrapolating the recent deceleration in the economy into still-slower growth would be a mistake, in our view. Instead, we see a moderate pickup ahead, with the 2Q downshift marking the transition to a period of unspectacular 3-3.5% growth.

Richard Berner & David Greenlaw, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley
Bank__Research_Consensus_Weekly_08.16.10_body_bankresearch.jpg, Bank Research Consensus Weekly 08.23.10

Growth Pickup Coming, But Fed Exit Postponed

Richard Berner & David Greenlaw, Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley

Don't extrapolate slower growth. There's no mistaking the slowing in incoming US economic indicators, ranging from past consumer spending and income to employment and forward-looking orders. And we are mindful of the downside risks to growth, noted below. But extrapolating the recent deceleration in the economy into still-slower growth would be a mistake, in our view. Instead, we see a moderate pickup ahead, with the 2Q downshift marking the transition to a period of unspectacular 3-3.5% growth.

Full Story


FX: USD Recovers Despite Soft Fed

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Last week the Fed announced it would be re-investing principal payments from its Agency and Mortgage Backed Securities in longer-term Treasuries and thereby keep its balance sheet constant. It effectively puts the exit process from quantitative easing on hold for now.

The knee-jerk reaction was a weakening of the dollar against the euro and the yen. The new stimuli from the Fed will further add to dollar liquidity in the market and will everything equal push US rates lower. The move underlines that the Fed has a strong commitment to keep rates low for an ‘extended period’. However, the dollar quickly reversed the losses and we saw a significant drop in EUR/USD from 1.33 to below 1.28.

Full Story


United States – Deflation on the Brain But Probably Not on the Horizon

James Marple, Economist, TD Bank Financial Group

It was another volatile week for financial markets as a dovish sounding Fed came up against disappointing economic indicators that, once again, raised fears about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery. By the time of writing, equity markets were down over 3.0% from their previous week’s close and the yield on U.S. 10 year treasuries had fallen 0.1 percentage points - reachings its lowest level since March of 2009. With the economic recovery slowing, and the job market showing little signs of joining in what economic recovery there is, the deflation boogeyman is once again popping up and keeping investors from a good night’s sleep. We have written in the past about the risks of deflation (see U.S. Consumer Prices to Drift Awefully Close To Deflationary Danger Zone). Given the turn in economic indicators, and in light of the move by the Federal Reserve to take baby steps towards more, rather than less, monetary stimulus, it is worth considering these risks again.

Full Story


BOE Inflation Report: King to Have Last Word, Not Sentance

Trevor Williams, Chief Economist at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets

Nine months into a cyclical recovery and the debate over UK monetary policy has become increasingly finely balanced. On the one hand, the pick-up in growth and the elevated level of inflation have strengthened the case for a preemptive rise in interest rates to start soon. On the other, the degree of uncertainty about the durability of the recovery and the potential disinflationary forces that could yet emerge have raised the possibility that more, not less, stimulus may be required. So which is it - should sterling markets brace themselves for an impending rise in interest rates; or should they be prepared for a renewed round of policy stimulus to stave off the risk of a double-dip recession?

Full Story


Other Pre-screened Independent Contributors

J-Chart

J-Chart is an innovative charting and bias-neutral market analysis tool. Based on its proprietary theoretical concept and display of market price action, J-Chart provides a much clearer and unique insight into the market than conventional charting methods. This innovative charting and market analysis tool is designed to visualize market price action that constructs unique price patterns called "Equilibriums". Based on its "non-fixed time frame" concept and "Kinetic Equilibrium" application, J-Chart users are able to forecast markets' future movements with high accuracy.

J-Chart Weekly Newsletter

Compiled by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

To Receive Future Articles by Email, Please contact me at [e-mail]

Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines, Fundamentals vs. Technical's, Intraday Trading, Weekly Spotlight, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast
©2009 DailyFX. All Rights Reserved.

[dalcindo]

Re: USD - Narrowing gap:

Support at 81.93; resistance at 8.93 - Very narrow gap; expecting a significant move from this narrowing gap.

D.

[dalcindo]

Re: Euro vs. Dollar Indices - Bullish outlook

The $USD charts only prints data at EOD. So, the analysis on the daily chart is based upon close last friday. Nonetheless, the chart is printing some early indication that the USD is recovering from a severe beating. While the economic data released last week may have been lackluster, there remains some fundamental uncertainties in Europe and Asia, which have dampened risk positions in the Forex market. Therefore, expect the greenback to benefit from the current reversal towards risk averse market sentiments.

Technically speaking, today's chart insert reads the following interpretation (See: "Tech-Note" below), supportive of a bullish reversal confirmation for the US Dollar index. A converse argument against the EURO Index ($XEU) can be made: Here, the RSI printed a BEARISH reversal confirmation precisely where price failed to rally above its BEARISH channel midline.

While these analyses are based on daily charts, further bullish confirmation of a continued bullish trend for the greenback will be best determined out of a weekly chart, where market consensus are the strongest. For now, such WEEKLY chart exists in the XEU itself, as well as the its relative strength (XEU vs. USD), where BEARISH technical events are still unfolding:



USD (Dollar index) - 1-Mo., DAILY Chart:

16 AUG 2010 - TECH-NOTE:
1 - RSI in positive spread;
2 - Price validated BULLISH channel; support above 61.8% Fib
CAUTION: Significant resistance at 38.2% Fib
BULLISH OUTLOOK.




XEU (EURO Index) - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



$XEU:$USD (Indices Relative Strength) - 5-Yr., Weekly Chart:





- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: GOOG - Bearish signals

TA:
13 AUG 2010 - TECH-NOTE: STRONG bearish signal per following:
1 - RSI prints a lower high as it attempts to cross its 45-EMA line
2 - RSI fails rally above its 50-line
3 - Price fails to rally above its long-term trendline and weekly 20-EMA,
4 - Secondary indicators are pointing downwards since recent rally, suggesting continued weakening,
5 - A/D, OBV and CiOsch are favoring selling side per their 21-EMA

GOOG - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: IWM (Russell 200) - 3-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:

Early BEARISH signal per RSI:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Stocks On Watch: CRXX, ECPN:

CRXX - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:

While the weekly 20-EMA has cross over the weekly 50-EMA, $CRXX 's price has remained under resistance under the upper border of the bearish channel. As long as the 50-EMA continues to act as support, there is a chance that price may breakout.

RSI's long-term support is getting tested anew. This last step may provide a push towards that breakout.

For now, secondary indicators seem to revert away from a recent, albeit weak uptrend. Therefore, the predominant trend remains bearish, but breakout may occur given the conditions met in the weekly 50-EMA and RSI supports, IMHO:




ECPN - 12-Mo., WEEKLY Chart:

Here, $ECPN is offering a more committed trend to the upside. While CRXX may possibly in the early phase of a bullish reversal, ECPN is way ahead of the curve. Secondary indicators continue to look up:




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: PUDA - 3Yr., WEEKLY Chart:

PUDA continues to test overhead resistance. While weekly RSI does not show any commitment to the bullish range, as the predominant trend as of late has dwelled within the 40-60 sideways range.

However, buying pressure is showed in the A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines. These indicators may possibly indicate an early directional trend, although I would personally wait for some trend reversal signals from the daily or weekly RSI, IMHO:




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $MSWORLD ex USA, $MSEAFE (Developed countries), and $MSEMF (Emerging Markets)

Below are charts of Morgan Stanley Investment International (MSCI) indices on world markets, excluding USA ("$MSWORLD"); that of developed countries, including Europe, Australasia, and Far East ("MSEAFE"); and that of Emerging Markets ("$MSEMF")- These indices encompass the vast majority of world markets (about 98%).

A few factoids:
1 - While the US market represents about 2/5 of the world markets, that of developed countries represents another 2/5, and that of emerging markets (formerly "developing countries") represents the last 1/5 portion;
2 - While portfolio managers use the $SPX to compare performance against specific financial assets (usually domestic), international asset performance are gauged against these other two indices, depending upon the weigh given to US domestic, developed, or emerging markets.


Some important technical points about the charts:
1 - Values are expressed at market close (EOD)
2 - Weekly intervals are chosen to balance crucial moves against noisy reaction. Once the week closes, the candle reflects the sum total commitment of world positions for the underlying index for that week;
3 - A period of 5 year should encompass most relevant cycles and year-over-year technical reactions
4 - The index is represented within the top, main chart;
5 - A relative strength expression of the index vs. the $SPX (e.g.: $MSWORLD:$SPX) appears in black line underneath the main chart;
6 - The index and $SPX each appear superimposed with one another, under the relative strength, in order to reinforce this comparative visual study.

Last points:
a) All questions and requests will be entertain time permitting.
b) These charts have been newly added on PAGE 9 within the following organization: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281
c) Your vote is special to me. It nourishes the motivation that feeds the brain that nurtures the passion behind these charts.

Best trading to you, my friend.

Your friendly technician,

- Dalcindo

PS: Anyone noted that both world market as a total sum and developed countries indices have an RSI that recently confirmed a BEARISH reversal, whereas that of developing country index has posted a BULLISH confirmation. Just saying ... (wing, wink)


MSCI World (ex USA) Index (EOD) ($MSWORLD) - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



MSCI EAFE Index (EOD) ($MSEAFE) - Developed Countries - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index (EOD) ($MSEMF) - Emerging Markets - 5-Yr., WEEKLY Chart:



- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: SBUX - Solid support confirmed; significant resistance overhead ...


14-RSI in $SBUX 's WEEKLY chart just finished registering a double-bottom. Combined with positive signals in CCI, Wm%R and CMF, and sustained buying pressure in A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, all pointing towards $24.00 as solid support.

Note though that a serious overhead resistance at $28.35 may represent the next significant hurdle, IMHO:




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: ARIA

Nice. Resistance turned support so far. 50-MA still a trailing resistance, though. Needs to peel off of it for good.

D.

[IIIverson]

ARIA inception to date chart, very interesting huh?



more charts (30 min / daily / weekly) here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com//boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52587258

[IIIverson]

ARIA, earnings tomorrow, looking good so far

[dalcindo]

Re: UUP vs. UDN Funds; XEU vs. USD Indices

(UUP vs. = Bullish vs.Bearish USD Funds)

UUP is nearing its significant 61.8% retracement level, thus targetting significant support at the $23.48 level.

Inversely, and as technically important, UDN is nearing its daily 200-EMA resistance level. The last time this bearish fund neared this significant trendline, it defined a bearish trend for this bearish fund, i.e.: signaled a bullish trend for the dollar.

A similar technical event is occuring in the relative expression of the indices: XEU vs. USD, whose charting below approaches a significant Fib retracement of 38.2%.


Combined, the convergence of these three technical events point towards a favorable support for USD. If this support failed, we would witness a bearish confirmation for the greenback.

- Dalcindo










- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: DDSS

Hi, RTN! How have you been?

Very very nice performance my friend! I hope you rode it and took profits on the way.

DDSS - 12-Mo., DAILY Chart:


- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[read_this_n0w]

DDSS yes from july 20th .90-.94 call as well

Also rode it lovely 1.40 to 2.96 avg from late 2009 to early 2010

chart
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52458886

[dalcindo]

Re: $MSWORLD - MSCI World (ex USA) Index (EOD)


MSCI World (ex USA) Index (EOD) - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

On WATCH: ASTC, CRXX, DDSS, ECPN, KERX, SOLF - All Nasdaq


Following are untouched charts since JAN-MAR 2010:


ASTC - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:



CRXX - 3-Year, WEEKLY Chart:



DDSS - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:



ECPN - 12-Month, WEEKLY Chart:



KERX - 3-Year, WEEKLY Chart:



SOLF - 12-Month, DAILY Chart:





- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: $USD (Index) vs. $GOLD (Cont. Contract), $XAU (Gold and Silver Index), and $XEU (Index)

Gold is topping off; USD oversold

As indicated recently in charts, I continue to expect $USD to rally: XEU to recede, IMHO.

- Dalcindo




















- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

$VIX And Synopsis of Major Indices (S&P 500, NYSE, Russell 2000)




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

$VIX And Synopsis of Major Indices (S&P, Nasdaq, DJIA)




- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: ARIA

Still a good climber:



- Dalcindo

[IIIverson]

ARIA MONTHLY CHART!!! IIIVERSON!!!

[dalcindo]

Re; FAS

Yes, RSI in daily FAS is crossing the 50-line, but lacks confirmation.

WEAK Confirmation would occur once the RSI crossed over the 60-line, then declines to find support over the 40-line - A strong confirmation would occur only once RSI had crossed over the 75-line.

Instead, the reverse event has occurred late MAY 2010: A weak BEARISH confirmation occurred once RSI crossed below the 40-line, then attempted to rally, but failed to cross over the 60-line in mid-JUL 2010, at which point, the bearish confirmation occurred.

Additionally, the price itself, albeit in a persistent up-trend, still remains in the lower segment of the down-trending, bearish channel. In fact, as of this writing, the price closed right at the midline of the bearish channel, corresponding exactly to RSI's mid-JUL high.

Going forward, I am expecting much resistance from this point forward, based on the technical hurdles just discussed. The daily 50-EMA continues to reveal the sentimental trend. So far, it is acting as a significant resistance, IMHO.


FAS - 12-MO., DAILY Chart:


- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Re: FAS - Looking at SPX through the FAS lens ...


Analysis from chart:
"26 JUL 2010 - TECH-NOTE: Recent BULLS pushed SPX higher, but (in this narrower view of the index), RSI remains in BEARISH range and price action confined to lower BEARISH channel."

I believe that the market remains predominantly BEARISH and the recent HIGH is reactionary in nature, rather than transitional.

- Dalcindo





- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[dalcindo]

Re: FAS, TNA, ERX

Although things are looking more positive, these events continue to evolve within a bearish biased market.

Agreed that each of these (FAS, TNA, ERX) indicate a narrowing of their respective 20 and 50-EMA's. However, they still remain in a bearish spread and RSI WHILE continued to dwell within its bearish range.

Until the recent upswing breaks away from the current bearish reaction high and defines a nascent bullish trend, the trend remains predominantly bearish, IMHO.

In fact, I am not fully convinced that the recent market highs in the large indices truly represent a breakout: While VIX remains above the high of late APR 2010, the weekly and monthly RSI's for $SPX remain in their bearish range.

For these ambiguous technical reasons, the current technical event remain caught in a grey zone, likely reflecting the current doubt about global fundamentals, such as doubts in bank tests in Europe, slow recovery in the US, and other market concerns in Asia.

At best, the market is acting hopeful, but remains "greyishly" hesitant, IMHO.

- Dalcindo


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
FAS, TNA and ERX set to come back big time





--------------------------------

- Dalcindo

[dalcindo]

Follow-Up: BIDU, WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts:

Remains BULLISH per WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts:


BIDU - 3-Year, WEEKLY Chart:



BIDU - 5-Year, MONTHLY Chart:



- Dalcindo


--------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by: dalcindo Member Level Date: Thursday, July 15, 2010 2:35:13 PM
In reply to: BUDDIEE18 who wrote msg# 57772 Post # of 58371 Send a link via email Share on Facebook Tweet this post
Re: BIDU - WEEKLY Chart:

Hi, Fox13!!!

Thank you for reminding me about this one. I decided to update the WEEKLY chart.

A quick eye over the chart suggests that BUYING pressure continues to support this Chinese website.

Technically speaking, RSI's EMA's remain in a BULLISH spread: Any negative cross-over of 14-RSI's 45-EMA and 9-RSI's 14-EMA occurs WHILE 14-RSI dwells in its BULLISH 40-80 range. I would thus consider this temporary bearish spreads as unimportant, as long they occur within a BULLISH bias, as expressed whenever RSI remains above its 40-line.

A less cryptic interpretation of the chart should also indicate that:
1 - CCI, Wm%R and CMF continue to evolve within BULLISH ranges;
2 - MACD is kinking back up for a possible repeat rally at a level well above its zero-line;
3 - While the ADX line seems to taper off, its (+)DI remains in a bullish spread, well above the (-)DI line;
4 - And finally, using Mary Kay Austin ("MKA") interpretation of the A/D, OBV and ChiOsc lines, retail and registered buyers remain in control - Which is yet another way to interprete the RSI behavior, as we just did above.

OVERALL - BULLISH outlook for this foreign internet stock. Look for $85.00 as significant psychological barrier; Look for $65.00 as significant technical support, as defined by Fibonacci's 23.6% mark, IMHO.

Thanks Fox13!

D.


---------------------------------
Message in reply to:
BIDU ??? what do your charts say about this one ?

just got another 10 calls of the 80s @ .05

---------------------------------


- Dalcindo: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281

[IIIverson]

yeah, i love it!

[read_this_n0w]

1.75 was it not?
:p

[IIIverson]

$+$+$+$+$+$ LOOK up ^ ARIA insider Harvey Berger CEO phd. how many shares does he own right now and what price about a year ago...?

[read_this_n0w]

recently small sales

S 2010-05-12 2010-05-19 16:46:18 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA DODION PIERRE F officer (Senior VP, Chief Medical Off) 5,714 $4.29 $24,513.10 0 19.81% view
S 2010-05-12 2010-05-19 16:46:18 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA DODION PIERRE F officer (Senior VP, Chief Medical Off) 13,578 $4.29 $58,249.60 0 19.81% view
S 2010-05-17 2010-05-19 16:46:05 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA Keane Raymond T officer (SVP General Counsel & CCO) 10,256 $4.09 $41,947.00 0 15.40% view
S 2009-10-01 2009-10-05 17:04:12 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC ARIA IULIUCCI JOHN D officer (Senior VP, Development) 70,000 $2.16 $151,543.00 132,742 16.86% view

http://www.insidercow.com/