$Stock*Shop*Charts*News*Option$

[SkeBallLarry]

" G'Morning, Stuffie ~ MeThinkz WE got a good Rain overnite " .. ??

[MiamiGent]

Still too early but it might not be a "buying day". Let's see what Larry says in a few hours.

[MiamiGent]

This just came down from the board's Steering Committee.
It instructs us all to get a good night's sleep, to be ready to make money tomorrow!

[MiamiGent]

Too early to be counted on futures reading: https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

[capgain]

Some charts of interest for next week, many are bouncing off the lower channel line. Can they make it to the upper? Can AAPL breakout of the channel? We shall see this week.

[MiamiGent]

George Harrison

[MiamiGent]

Harry Nillson

[MiamiGent]

Brian Wilson

[MiamiGent]

Dan Peek

[MiamiGent]

The S&P 500 could fall another 23% in a worst-case scenario as the stock market prices in a one-third chance of recession, BofA says
[e-mail] (Brian Evans)

The S&P 500 will plunge 11% by the end of 2022 as 'inflation shock' sparks a recession, Bank of America researchers say.

The S&P 500 could tumble to 3,000 in a worst-case scenario, Bank of America said.

On Friday, the index closed at about 3,912, with BofA's estimate representing 23% further downside.

BofA also estimated that a one-third chance of a recession has been priced into the stock market so far.

The S&P 500 is settling into a bear market that could push the index down as far as 3,000 in a worst-case scenario, Bank of America said in a note published Friday.

The broad index closed the week at about 3,912, meaning BofA's estimate represents 23% further downside potential.

Meanwhile, a one-third chance of a recession has been priced into the stock market so far, according to the note, which said relying on the price-to-earnings ratio to predict the S&P 500's performance isn't as reliable as the equity risk premium.

Analysts pointed out that the current bear market is the the 27th since 1929, and historically they have resulted in a 35% average decline. That implies the S&P 500 would bottom at 3,100, largely in line with BofA's worst-case scenario of roughly 3,000 using its equity risk premium framework.

Elon Musk says we're in a recession..
Elon Musk said at a conference Monday he believed the US is probably in a recession.

US GDP shrunk last quarter, and two contractions in a row typically marks a recession.
Wall Street firms are split on the prospect of whether the US will tumble into one.
Americans are feeling the weight of inflation — and the biggest financial firms are at a crossroads about whether that means a recession is coming.

Elon Musk is more certain. At a Miami "All In" tech conference on Monday, the Tesla founder posited that the US is already in a recession that he believes could last anywhere from a year to 18 months.

"Recessions are not necessarily a bad thing," he said via video. "I've been through a few of them. And what tends to happen is if you have a boom that goes on too long, you get a misallocation of capital. It starts raining money on fools, basically."

Musk isn't an expert, but he's joining a chorus of others sounding the alarm on a pending recession — which the National Bureau of Economic Research defines as a widespread, months-long decline in the economy. After all, getting food on the table is more expensive. So is putting gas in the tank. The highest inflation in 40 years has a domino effect on the housing market as well, meaning that buying a home is getting increasingly prohibitive.

This pressure has bled into the most widely monitored measure US economic growth — gross domestic product — which shrank in the first quarter for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

With all that going on, it's difficult for many to feel optimistic about the state of the economy.

"People are noticing the higher prices, and that in many cases, their wages aren't keeping up," Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University, told Insider.

Several economists told Insider that current inflationary problems are a bump in the road that low and middle-income Americans are reasonably equipped to withstand, pointing to data that shows Americans' finances are actually keeping up with rising costs. There are also plenty of jobs to go around, with the labor market's recovery holding strong. And Americans are still spending, with the savings they amassed during the pandemic still helping to keep the economy afloat.

All that extra cash is one thing Musk is blaming for the economic downturn.

"The obvious reason for inflation is the government printed a zillion amount of more money than it had," he argued. "The government can't just issue checks for an excessive revenue without there being inflation."

And some financial professionals have painted a dark picture, with multiple large firms forecasting an imminent recession. On the whole, Wall Street is divided.

On one side of the aisle is Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, which say the US is certain to plunge into recession. Opposite them are JPMorgan and UBS, who acknowledge that economic pressures will persist, but don't think a full-on recession is coming.

Forecasts for a recession have grown in recent weeks as experts say the Federal Reserve was too slow to tackle inflation and must now tighten monetary policy abruptly, threatening to snuff out the economic expansion.

But that doesn't mean investors stay on the sidelines. BofA recommended staying long on the energy sector and avoid consumer discretionary stocks, pointing out that energy has outperformed the S&P 500 by 44 percentage points.

Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel and is unlikely to see much downward pressure from a surge in new supply. BofA estimated that capital expenditures among US oil producers as share of operating cash flow has plummeted to a record low of 30%, down from the 2011-2016 range of 80%-100%.

"On the flip side, Consumer Discretionary ranks at the bottom," analysts wrote. "As evidenced by retailers' recent earnings, consumers' shift from discretionary items to necessities poses further risk. Moreover, Energy and Consumer Discretionary earnings have historically been negatively correlated."

Read the original article on Business Insider

[MiamiGent]

Market movers
As of Jun-24-2022 4:00 PM ET

Top % gainers

Across all markets
Symbol Last % Change Volume
USAK $31.00 +112.62% 2.8M
BNTC $1.22 +64.86% 96.7M
TBLT $2.70 +55.17% 177.6M
IDAI $1.85 +38.06% 52.2K
SERA $1.75 +

[MiamiGent]

Market movers
As of Jun-24-2022 4:00 PM ET

Most actives

Across all markets
Symbol Last % Change Volume
TBLT $2.70 +55.17% 177.6M
TQQQ $27.98 +10.46% 151.8M
SWN $7.01 +7.35% 151.7M
SPY $390.08 +3.18% 98.1M
BNTC $1.22 +64.86% 96.7M

[MiamiGent]

CNBC EVENING BRIEF
AS OF FRI, JUN 24, 2022 • 05:07 ET

DJIA 31500.68
+2.68% +823.32
S&P 500 3911.74
+3.06% +116.01
NASDAQ 11607.62
+3.34% +375.43


Most Active
DOW
NAME LAST CHG %CHG
AAPL 141.66 +3.39 +2.45%
INTC 38.61 +1.20 +3.21%
MSFT 267.70 +8.84 +3.42%
S&P 500
NAME LAST CHG %CHG
AAPL 141.66 +3.39 +2.45%
AMD 87.08 +4.65 +5.64%
CCL 10.85 +1.20 +12.44%
NASDAQ
NAME LAST CHG %CHG
AAPL 141.66 +3.39 +2.45%
AMD 87.08 +4.65 +5.64%
AMZN 116.46 +4.02 +3.58%

EDITOR'S NOTE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 800 points in a major comeback rally for stocks, coming off the lows of the bear market last week even as many on Wall Street maintain a gloomy outlook.

A final reading of a consumer sentiment report tracked by the Federal Reserve showed record lows going back to 1952. Still, stocks appeared to get a lift from a key figure in the report showing inflationary pressures easing slightly compared to a preliminary release.

More consumers appeared to be willing to pay for experiences compared to durable goods.

“On balance, sentiment is mixed,” wrote Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Consumers are getting out and paying for ‘experiences,’ namely travel, leisure, beauty items, household essentials, etc. Elevated inflation, particularly higher food and energy costs, are among headwinds widely expected to crimp discretionary spending in the near-term.”

On Friday, travel names led the S&P 500's gains.

All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 were positive on Friday, but cruise line stocks leapt on the back of a business update from Carnival Corporation that showed booking volumes in its most recent quarter were “nearly double” those of the first quarter.

Shares of Carnival rallied 12.4%. Royal Caribbean Group surged about 15.8%. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ shares gained nearly 15.4%.

Sarah Min | Investing Reporter at CNBC Pro
@_sarahmin

[MiamiGent]

Breitbart Business Digest

June 24, 2022

Consumer Sentiment Sunk Even Lower

We really do hate to be the bearers of bad news on such a glorious day, but this is what they tell us we are paid to do. Consumer sentiment sunk from its record low in mid-June to a new record low in the final June reading. The most important takeaway from the report is that the decline in sentiment is pretty much universal.

“Consumers across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stockholding and homeownership status all posted large declines,” Joanne Hsu, the director of the survey, said.

As we've mentioned before, we regard this as the real measure of presidential approval because it is slightly less subject to partisanship. It's not immune, as post-electoral shifts in 2016 and 2020 have shown. But it is not as dominated by partisan feelings as the strictly political polls are. By this reading, Biden is one of the most unpopular presidents in generations....

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

[MiamiGent]

Breitbart Business Digest

June 24, 2022


How the Corporate Greed Narrative Hurts Energy Production

Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post makes an important point about how the Biden administration's war on U.S. businesses is hampering its attempts to bring down gas prices:

Ramping up drilling and refining requires big, expensive investments that firms worry won’t pay off if (when) oil demand eventually falls again. A lot of companies went bust in 2020, when oil prices briefly went negative. The long-term outlook for fossil fuels isn’t great. One solution might involve insuring companies against some “downside risk.” For example, the government could guarantee some minimum level of future prices or profits.

But that would be politically toxic. How can Democrats guarantee profit levels, when they’ve convinced their voters that these greedy firms are already “profiteering”? Progressives have effectively boxed themselves in.

It's even worse than that. The Biden administration is not only prohibited from helping refiners by its "corporate greed" narrative. It is also blocked by its attachment to green energy and its pledge to end fossil fuels. On Thursday, when Treasury Secretary Jennifer Granholm was holding an emergency meeting with representatives from all the top oil companies, Biden was meeting in the White House with wind energy people. This tells you everything you need to know about who is really running the show in the administration, and it is not the people who want cheaper gasoline.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

[MiamiGent]

Breitbart Business Digest

June 24, 2022

The Tariffs Inflation Con

There has been a lot of talk lately in Washington, DC, that the Biden administration might attempt to reduce inflation by cutting tariffs on goods imported from China. The details of such plans remain vague, but Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is said to favor it while Trade Representative Katherine Tai appears to be opposed.

"The China tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of leverage and a trade negotiator never walks away from leverage," Tai said in testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee.

It's understandable that the Biden administration would be scrambling for some policy to reduce prices ahead of the midterm election. Inflation is the top concern among American voters, many blame the Biden administration, and Biden's popularity is in the tank. Democratic lawmakers are begging Biden to do something before they drown in a red wave election this fall. Big business lobbyists are pressing Biden for a repeal of the China tariffs.

There's a fog of unreality about this. Only about one percent of the Chinese products subject to tariffs are consumer goods. When tariffs were imposed, they did not raise consumer prices, probably because most of their cost fell on the margins of Chinese manufacturers and U.S. importers. Lifting the tariffs would not have much of an immediate effect on U.S. prices at all. A review by the Peterson Institute, which is not friendly toward the tariffs, found that a complete repeal of the China tariffs would reduce the Consumer Price Index by 0.26 percentage points. That's a drop in the bucket when we are at 8.6 percent annual inflation.

What's more, a repeal would do absolutely nothing to the two most politically salient parts of inflation: gas prices and food prices. In fact, reducing the tariffs could exacerbate inflation in food and gas because it would free up a bit of money for households to spend at the gas station and grocery store.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

[MiamiGent]

DJIA: 31,500.68 +823.32 (2.68%) | NASDAQ: 11,607.62 +375.427 (3.34%) | S&P 500: 3,911.74 +116.01 (3.06%) —Markets closed

[MiamiGent]

U.S. Sectors & Industries Performance
AS OF 05:05 PM ET 06/24/2022

Sector Last % Change

Communication Services
5 Industries
+3.94%

Consumer Discretionary
11 Industries
+3.74%

Consumer Staples
6 Industries
+1.86%

Energy
2 Industries
+1.53%

Financials
7 Industries
+3.80%

Health Care
6 Industries
+1.63%

Industrials
14 Industries
+3.49%

Information Technology
6 Industries
+3.57%

Materials
5 Industries
+3.98%

Real Estate
2 Industries
+2.07%

Utilities
5 Industries
+1.76%

[MiamiGent]

Looking over my account tonight, I'm down 5.96% YTD.*
Berkshire Hathaway is down 7.38% YTD
The S&P is down 15.56% YTD
Cathie Wood's ARKK was down 30% in first quarter 2022, alone.

They don't call me the Oracle from Schenectady for nothing :)


* It's really hard to figure. That's my best shot

[MiamiGent]

Haha Good play on words, EZ!

[MiamiGent]

You have a great weekend, too stuffy, and everyone here!

One thing at a time stuffy. Things get done eventually. Try to enjoy the process!

This week our accounts came back from the dead! Let's celebrate that!

First selection is to get our blood flowing

Next selections are just nice listening

Lay you tracks down here this weekend!

[Tuff-Stuff]

Have A GREAT Weekend Everyone~~

Mine shall be very busy, and NOT much fun!

[Tuff-Stuff]

Thought it might hit close to home LOL

[MiamiGent]

Looking forward to reading this. Small truckers are near and dear to me.
In my career business, I had 400 movements a year to give out. Mostly dry vans but also a fair amount of liquid and a few pneumatics and dumps.
All were small operations and worked hard. Unbelievably rotten hours.
I paid the truckers first.

Vehicle is over the hill. Tomorrow I go out and get something.
Heaven help me. It'll be like buying at the top of the chat, a full position taken at the 52 wk high. Oh my, lol

[Tuff-Stuff]

Stagflation, reflation, soft landing, or a slump - what
Wall Street expects in the second half of 2022

"one theme uniting them: uncertainty"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stagflation-reflation-soft-landing-or-a-slump-what-wall-street-expects-in-the-second-half-of-2022-11656107309

[EZ2]

One of my favorite groups: Green Day !!

[Tuff-Stuff]

A 'Great Purge' is Pushing Small Truckers Out of Business at
an Unprecedented Rate

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-purge-pushing-small-truckers-out-business-unprecedented-rate

[Tuff-Stuff]

Friday Links: ironclad economic rules

https://finviz.com/groups.ashx

[Tuff-Stuff]

Group Screener->

[color=green[/color] Day and 1 week look darn good for a change

https://finviz.com/groups.ashx

[Tuff-Stuff]

Check, got that!

[MiamiGent]

Wow, it went off strong!


S&P 500 + 3.06%
NASDAQ + 3.34%
DJIA + 2.68%

FINAL

[capgain]

Needed a nap before work tonight and couldn't babysit. Thanks.

[capgain]

Thanks, you too.

[Tuff-Stuff]

WOWsa, big ending so far! 800 plus on the DOW

[Tuff-Stuff]

Yep, Good Deal cap, take the money!

[MiamiGent]

My mother didn't raise no fool.
My good sense surfaced- I politely begged off from next week's appt and will travel to SC to get 'er done.
Now to try and get my vehicle in shape on the hurry up!

Cap, I'll advise if you and your loved ones need to stay off the road and when :)

[MiamiGent]

S&P 500 + 2.62%
NASDAQ + 2.71%
DJIA + 2.35%

[MiamiGent]

Nice play cap! You bet on the mkt going up and it happened.

It was hard to refuse the gains today

---------

Turns out the pain will be as much in the wallet! I'm in Bull's neck of the woods and it's high rent. Two teeth out next week at $500 each, Sheesh

The monastery dentist in SC did one last yr for 175. He was excellent, too.
But my vehicle is in no shape to make that trek

Ah well, WTH can you do. Just smile and trade well, I guess lol

MG

[capgain]

Good luck. I had to sell my calls, it was a good day.

[Tuff-Stuff]

back later!

[MiamiGent]

My old tooth sent me strong signals last night, it wants out!

I am on the road, opening up a new area in SW Florida

I picked a dentist out of Yelp

YIKES!!!

I'm off to get it pulled

If I don't come out of this alive, it's been great trading with you these many years.

MG
Remembering at this moment what EZ says, "Getting old is not for sissies!"

[Tuff-Stuff]

Indeed! And yes a talented Family for sure

[EZ2]

Wow, Grandpa Hoagie would be so ELATED to see that Arch Manning has chosen to be a LONGHORN ! I'm guessing Robbie, Demetrius and the entire family will be carrying on LOUD and PROUD come football season !

MANNING(s) ~~~ Wow, what a talented football family !!! GL Arch !!!!

[MiamiGent]

CNBC
FRI, JUN 24, 2022

MORNING SQUAWK

1. Wall Street heads for its first weekly advance in the past four

U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher Friday open on Wall Street, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all tracked for their first positive week in the past four, getting support from the recent decline in bond yields.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, while slightly higher Friday to around 3.1%, has been trending lower since last week’s surge to 2011 highs near 3.5% after the Federal Reserve’s biggest interest rate increase since 1994.
The Fed’s stepped-up efforts to slow the economy to fight inflation have raised concerns about a recession. The latest indicators of U.S. economic health are out at 10 a.m. ET, with the release of May new home sales and the University of Michigan’s final June consumer sentiment index.


2. Powell vows ‘unconditional’ measures to fight decades-high inflation

In Day 2 of his semiannual economic testimony on Capitol Hill, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee that the central bank’s commitment to reining in 40-year-high inflation is “unconditional.” A day earlier, on Wednesday, Powell told the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that the Fed was not trying to provoke a recession but that one was “certainly a possibility.” Last week, monetary policymakers hiked rates by 75 basis points and signaled another increase of 50 to 75 basis points at their July meeting.


3. FedEx reports mixed quarter results as ground unit margin improved

FedEx shares turned lower in Friday’s premarket, the morning after the delivery giant reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter profit but missed on revenue. Adjusted earnings of $6.87 per share beat estimates by a penny. Revenue grew 8% to $24.4 billion, lower than expectations of $24.56 billion. Shipment volumes declined, but that was offset by increased shipping rates and fuel surcharges. FedEx’s closely watched ground unit margin improved, but it has lagged United Parcel Service, whose new CEO adopted a “better not bigger” mantra two years ago. FedEx issued upbeat guidance for fiscal 2023.


4. Zendesk surges on reports that it’s nearing a deal to sell itself

Zendesk shares surged more than 50% in the premarket on reports that the customer service software vendor was close to a buyout deal with a group of private equity firms. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hellman & Friedman and Permira are among those involved. The potential buyout comes after Zendesk announced last week that it had ended efforts to sell itself. The San Francisco-based firm has been under pressure from activist investor Jana Partners. The Journal said it’s unclear where Zendesk’s discussions with Jana stand.


— CNBC’s Peter Schacknow, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min and Tanaya Macheel as well as Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Matthew J. Belvedere
@Matt_Belvedere

[MiamiGent]

Breitbart Business Digest
June 23, 2022


If it takes a recession—or even a period of stagflation—to bring down inflation, so be it.

This was Jerome Powell's message on the second of his two-day stint testifying on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers repeatedly pressed Powell on what he would do if the economy slowed dramatically while inflation was still high. If inflation is still too high, would the Fed continue to raise rates even if unemployment soared and the economy went into a contraction? Powell was firmly in the affirmative.

The exchange with Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN) was instructive. Hollingsworth cited the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW's reading of zero growth for the second quarter, the recent climb in jobless claims, and last quarter's economic contraction as evidence that the economy may already be in or nearing a recession. He said he was worried that if the Fed waited for evidence that inflation has significantly slowed, the Fed would be behind the curve again. He asked how the Fed would respond to a situation where inflation is still high “and unemployment is escalating quickly, and economic growth is negative.”

Powell did not flinch. “We can’t fail on this,” he said. “We really have to get inflation down to 2 percent.?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services on June 23, 2022, in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

For the most part, Republicans on the committee appeared to be inclined to support the hawkish stance of the Fed and Powell's insistence that the Fed would be "uncompromising" when it came to fighting inflation. Many Democrats, however, argued that raising rates into a slowing economy would not do much to bring down rising food or gas prices but might throw many Americans out of work. Powell pointed out that while the Fed cannot increase the supply of oil or food, it can slow demand.

“Our tools are blunt, but they are the right tools to deal with broad aggregate demand,” he said.

This is how monetary policy works according to the standard view. The Fed fights inflation by raising rates, which makes mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and business loans more expensive. The price of credit rises, weighing on spending and hiring, weakening demand for goods and services, and softening the job market. Slower growth results, giving supply a chance to catch up with demand.

The argument made by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) on Wednesday and House Democrats on Thursday is that the Fed shouldn't try to fight inflation by reducing demand because in their view the problem is on the supply side. This is a version of what Biden has said as well. Powell's response on Thursday was to say that lawmakers are free to try to juice supply by passing laws, but the central bank's tool is interest rates and its legal duty is to use that tool to bring down inflation.

The Capitol Hill Democrat argument seems to be that the Fed should not be willing to risk a recession to bring inflation down. If inflation were not quite so high or so persistent, that might be persuasive. High and lasting inflation, however, would inflict deep economic scars, deeper than a temporary rise in unemployment or a broad but shallow economic slowdown.

Joe Biden's Empty Quiver

At the same time Powell was getting grilled by Democrats on Capitol Hill over using demand management tools to address inflation that they insist boils down to corporate greed and supply-chain problems (a view now several months out-of-date), the Biden administration was demonstrating that it has no supply-side solution. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm gathered with leaders of the biggest oil refiners for an "emergency meeting" on high gas prices. The result was a plan to have another meeting.

This is the latest ploy by the Biden administration that only makes it clear that, as ISI Evercore put, Biden's policy quiver is empty. The only real solution would be increased production of petroleum and increased investment in fossil fuel extraction. These things are anathema to the president's party, however, so all they have left are fruitless emergency meetings, dead-on-arrival proposals like the gas tax holiday, and the president angrily telling gas station owners to charge less.

[capgain]

Congrats, nice trades. I'm trying to be patient, but like I said. I hate fighting the FED.

Usually for me holding over the weekend is a no no.

I'm going to try.

[MiamiGent]

DJIA: 31,335.20 +657.84 (2.14%) | NASDAQ: 11,481.398 +249.205 (2.22%) | S&P 500: 3,884.04 +88.31 (2.33%) —Markets close in 4 hrs 30 mins

[MiamiGent]

That would be very hard for me to hold for just bc I'm a "bird in the hand" guy'

But it'll be great to see your plan rewarded, cap!

My account regained 5.89% today and that will be it bc I am essentially flat.

I did take one dinky flyer today but it is so cheap and tawdry, I can't put it on the board, lol

[MiamiGent]

TLRY looks like a very good play here stuffy. But by and large, I don't play the very low priced, speculative ones bc Fidelity demands all cash.
With my big, good stocks, I get a lot of margin.
I use margin to get outsized annual returns.*




*BUT NOT THIS YEAR, SO FAR, UGH!!!!!!

[capgain]

We've been at resistance on SPX for like 30 minutes now (3880ish)

I know I'll have to hold through a couple of dips if I want to hit my target, that's the hard part!