Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
8 Critical Steps Every Family Should Be Taking to Prepare for the Next Financial Crisis
by Frugal Dad
It remains to be seen whether or not the worst has passed, or if we are merely enjoying the relative calm during the eye of the latest financial storm. I personally believe we are in for more tough times in the near term.
A variety of stimulus programs have conspired to create an “artificial demand” that has produced seemingly positive results. However, I believe it only served to delay the inevitable. In fact, I’ll go a step further. I believe it made the inevitable even worse. Would the economy have been worse without the stimulus? Probably. Would we have survived and saved a couple trillion dollars in new debt? Probably. But who knows. I’m not an economist, and I certainly don’t play one on TV.
In the Frugal household we are hunkering down, financially. The 2008 recession caught us off guard. We were still in debt, had little savings, and were just beginning to deal with what would become a year-long medical and financial crisis with my mom, who suffered an aneurysm and subsequent stroke at 53 years young. She passed away in September of 2009. Fortunately, we were able to ride the storm out, but I made it a goal to be better prepared next time. And next time may be closer than any of us think.
What if I’m wrong? Well, I hope I am. You can say I told you so. But even if I am wrong about another economic downturn in the next year, at least your family will have improved its finances between now and then.
#1 Get Your Financial Documents in Order
The time to organize financial documents is before a crisis hits. Buy a file cabinet to store things like financial statements, and a fire-proof box to store more important documents, such as life insurance policy statements, deeds and titles, etc.
Action Item: Spend Saturday morning getting organized. Shred all but the last two monthly statements from banks, brokerages and credit cards (unless you need them for tax purposes). Start a “2010 Taxes” file to collect receipts and tax documents for this year. Work up a document with account numbers, rough balances, contact information and save both a digital copy and hard copy in your fire-proof box. Be sure your will and advanced directive for health care is up to date.
#2 Reduce Your Monthly Bills
Who wouldn’t like to save money every month? In many cases the only thing stopping us is ourselves. We get complacent. We don’t like change. But in some cases, you must endure changes to save money in the long run.
Take a look at your recurring monthly expenses and find ways to slash costs. Shop for cheaper car insurance. Ask your cable provider if they offer a basic package. Using just a fraction of your cell phone minutes? Move to a cheaper plan, or consider going pre-paid. Ask your credit card company for a lower interest rate. Even if you strike out at all of these, it doesn’t hurt to ask, and you could easily find ways to shave $50-$100 a month off your regular expenses.
Action Item: OK, so you spent Saturday morning getting organized. Spend Saturday afternoon shopping for better deals. If you find customer service departments closed for the weekend, make a note and call back Monday morning.
#3 Save Three Months of “Living Expenses”
This is essentially a bare-minimum household emergency fund. It won’t last long in a real crisis, but if you have debt, you need to get on with the next step, so avoid saving more than a few months.
Action item: Open a savings account at a top online bank and save three months worth of housing payments, plus enough for food and lights. That’s it.
#4 Get Out of Debt
With a small household emergency fund in place, turn your attention to getting out of debt. Household debt adds considerable risk to a family’s finances. It puts you so close to the edge, financially, that it doesn’t take much to push you over the cliff. Distance yourself from the edge by getting radical in your approach to paying off debt.
Action Item: Pay off 100% of your household debt, beginning with credit cards and any other unsecured debt. Sell stuff, donate plasma, get two part-time jobs – get radical and get out now! Your family’s financial future depends on it. More on how to get out of debt.
#5 Pile Up a One-Year Household Safety Net in Cash
Now that you are debt free, return your focus to emergency savings, but continue to work on items 5-9 concurrently, allocating a bit of your income to each step. How much? Do what you are comfortable with, but make reaching milestone a priority.
Over the years, I’ve waffled a bit on how much should be in a fully-funded emergency fund. Experts recommend 3-6 months of expenses. Some personal finance bloggers recommend establishing an emergency fund based on the number of dependents, or the number of people working in the household. Both are good ideas.
However, from this point forward, I’ve decided to offer the following advice to keep things simple: save one year of basic household expenses as an ultimate family safety net. Considering the recent recession (and the chance of a double-dip recession around the corner), the old advice of 3-6 months being sufficient to cover a period of unemployment or serious illness is, frankly, a joke.
Action Item: Save one year of basic household expenses in a highly-liquid emergency fund. Note, this should only cover basic household expenses. Luxuries such as cable, Netflix, XM radio, and gym memberships should not be included. Things like mortgage payments, food, the power bill, and transportation costs should be included.
#6 Build a Second Income
I can think of no greater hedge against unemployment than developing a second income stream. Even if your second income is a fraction of your full-time income, it may be enough to keep your house current and food on the table in a financial crisis. Part time gigs are a fine way to boost cash flow in the near term (a great way to get out of debt, for example), but I encourage you to look for opportunities to cultivate self employment income. Mow yards in your neighborhood. Learn to build fences and decks on the weekends. Start a blog or chase down freelance writing opportunities. Get creative.
Action Item: Start a side hustle at nights and on the weekends.
#7 Keep a Modest Stockpile of Food and Household Goods
I have known some people to fill entire rooms with stockpiles of food, and load up basements and storage buildings or garages with paper products and cleaning supplies. I have known others who have no more than tomorrow night’s dinner scattered about bare refrigerators and pantries. Like everything else, you have to find a balance that works for you.
We don’t like to shop, and have found that the more often we are in the store the more money we spend. So, we try to keep a small stockpile of food at home and only restock a couple times a month. In a real crisis, we could probably go a month or two without having to leave the house for food. Of course, we’d sure miss fresh fruits and vegetables, so we try to grow a few of those on our own using square foot gardening methods in our backyard.
Action Item: Clear a few shelves and stock with non-perishable (or long shelf-life) foods like rice, beans, canned vegetables, plus a small surplus of paper and cleaning supplies, toiletries, etc. Keep your freezer well-stocked with a variety of meats purchased on sale.
#8 Pay Off Your Mortgage Early
For us, the ultimate in financial freedom begins with having a paid-for home. Imagine not making payments to anyone for living space (well, except the local tax commissioner). No monthly mortgage or rent payments buys two very important things: You can build wealth much faster without house payments, and you can survive on much less income without a mortgage.
Action Item: Get busy paying off your mortgage early. Contact your mortgage company and ask about making biweekly payments. If they offer a biweekly plan, but charge a fee, pass and simply send in one extra payment a year (the math is virtually the same). If you are in relatively good shape, financially, have plenty of emergency cash saved, and are saving for retirement and kid’s college, consider throwing extra savings at the mortgage each month. Contact your mortgage provider and ask for instructions on making extra principal payments.
Source: frugaldad.com
$SSEC - LT view of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Monthly
Although stock markets now appear oversold as far as short-term indicators are concerned, weak markets can stay oversold for a while. Looking at longer-term (monthly) data, it is premature to argue that the U.S. cyclical bull market has ended, but a worrying picture emerges when considering the Shanghai Composite Index. Not only has the Index broken below its key 10-month (200-day) moving average, but the momentum oscillator (ROC) in the bottom section of the chart below has fallen below the zero line which indicates a primary bear signal. The Chinese stock market was the first to turn the corner after the credit crisis sell-off – a full five months before the majority of indices bottomed in March 2009 – and could also now be leading global markets lower. Be careful out there. - RR
AVTR ($20) - very LT investment, value investing.
On watch. The real estate market is closer to a bottom.
Intrinsic value: $32
Current price: $20
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) per share = (Total Liabilities - Current Asset) / OS = $32
Buy stock trading for 65 cents on the dollar or less.
Daily
Weekly
Frightening chart says recession is on the horizon
from Economic Cycles Research Institute
"ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack."
- Harvard Business Review, Apr. 2004
Frightening chart says recession is on the horizon
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The following note comes to us courtesy of Chad Starliper, the CIO at Rather & Kittrell:
“The 13-week annualized rate of the WLI is now at -23.46%, something that usually only happens in, or prior to, recessions. This is very ominous economic momentum. I haven’t seen anyone look at it this way, I suppose because the ECRI publishes their own smoothed growth rate.”
Source: Rather & Kittrell
Crash In ECRI’s WLI Is Forecasting Double-Dip Recession and Worse
by Jas Jain | June 7, 2010
In the economic forecasting business there are leaders and there are laggards. Please look at the attached graph, generated from Economic Cycles Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index that shows how fast the index has tumbled, falling like a rock. A decline of 10.6 points, or -7.9%, over a 4-week period has never happened before. The graph shows decline over a 13-week period and in the coming weeks the current waterfall decline is likely to exceed the low shown in the graph during 2008. Don’t expect ECRI’s Guru Lakshman Achuthan and other e-con-meisters to forecast the double-dip until we are already in the renewed recession, most likely to begin in 2010Q4 (there is some probability that it could begin during 2010Q3), that would be the beginning of depression in the US followed by a global depression, China included. It would be a deflationary depression as I have been forecasting for a long time. Like in 2008, the US Treasury bonds should outperform the Scam Market by more than 50% for the 12-month period beginning in May 2010. There is also a very high probability of 20-30% decline in high-priced homes, especially, in areas like Silicon Valley where home prices in expensive zip codes are highly dependent of the Scam Market, over the next 12-18 months. The US economy is being managed, or more like manipulated, by the most incompetent people in US history. Bernanke has a proven record of incomopetence and Obama knows nothing about producing wealth. These gangsters only know about stealing money from the producers and handing it to the crooks. Play safe!
CSCO - LT investment, swing play, LT uptrend, bottom
On watch.
Current price: 22.86
P/E: 19.36
P/CF: ?
Jeff Auxier, an investment guru who focuses on value investing, bought CSCO($24.63) today 06/23/2010.
Jeff Auxier is the President and CEO of Auxier Asset Management/Auxier Focus Fund.
Daily
Weeky
great article there, thanks for sharing
Think Like an Investor
11 Ways To Think Like an Investor and Run a Better Business
Contrarian thinking can be a big help when it comes to business theory. Anne-Marie Fink, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, has written a useful book that posits that thinking like an investor can help business managers do better at making money.The book, “The Money Makers, How Extraordinary Managers Win in a World Turned Upside Down,” (310 pages, Crown Business books), sets up 11 points and “myths” about business and then either backs them up shoots them all down in insightful ways.
Here are the 11 points:
1. Think like an investor: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) realizes that it can’t go against much bigger Intel, so it watched what Intel did wrong and profited. In one case, it produced chips that increased processing speeds faster than Intel’s chips.
2. Avoid roach motels: When you see one roach or problem it is likely there are plenty more. An example is Enron where CEO Key Lay had plenty of warning that his CFO was getting into fraudulent deals. The lesson? Don’t resist bad news.
3. Avoid profitless growth: Growth for growth’s sake is bad when it uses up too many resources. Southwest Airlines, for instance, managed to keep its planes flying 50 percent more of the time than competitors. Exxon has been able to reuse the same platform design for offshore drilling in Africa several times.
4. Don’t be a customer fanatic: Sure, respect your customer but don’t assume he understands your business. An example is Illinois Central. The railroad used to get calls from a Gulf Coast plastics producer that it was ready to ship pellets to Illinois. IC used to send a locomotive on Monday but the cargo would sit in a classification yard until Wednesday waiting for a train big enough to go to Illinois. After a reorganization, when the customer called on Monday, IC would send a locomotive on Wednesday. Initially, the customer was annoyed until he learned that the pellets actually got to the final destination sooner this way.
5. Get more reward for risk: If you take on more risk, make sure you know what you are doing so you won’t get burned and maximize profits.
6. Economics trumps management: Cisco misinterpreted the market for telecom back in the 1990s. It didn’t realize that there were distinct economic limits for all the servers and routers it was selling to WorldCom and Global Crossing which were contributing to vast overcapacity. They went bankrupt and Cisco was badly burned.
7. The best companies to invest in are the worst to work for: High performance firms with high standards are often tough places to work. Also, forget the socialistic “all for one” rewards. That ignores individual achievement.
8. Good performance requires inefficiency and duplication: If you get hyper-efficient and have absolutely no duplication, you might actually miss out on those lucky mistakes that give you insight into new and profitable products.
9. Megatrends start as ripples: Identifying huge trends when they are still small ones can’t be better than pouring money into long-shot ventures that won’t bear fruit for years.
10. Use small steps to achieve big results: Big transformations aren’t always the way to grow. Sometimes incremental steps are wiser.
11. Shrink to grow: If you grow in a lopsided way by pouring money into areas that don’t earn their cost of capital, you are jogging on a treadmill and not getting anywhere. It might be better to shrink down to a profitable core and set yourself up for long-term prosperity.
Source: http://blogs.bnet.com/ceo/?p=1669
http://www.youngmoney.com/investing/think-like-an-investor/
How to avoid getting scammed
Here are some tips to avoid potential scams:
Investigate before you invest. Never rely solely on information contained in an unsolicited fax, email, text message or tweet—or in a blog post or online thread. It's easy for companies or their promoters to make glorified claims about product effectiveness, lucrative contracts, or the company’s revenues, profits or future stock price.
Find out who sent the message. Many companies and individuals that tout stocks are paid to do so by the company being touted. Examine the fine print for any statements indicating payments in cash or in stock for issuing the report or message.
Find out where the stock trades. Most unsolicited fax and spam recommendations involve stocks that do not meet the listing requirements of the major stock exchanges. Instead, they usually are quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board or in the Pink Sheets, which do not impose minimum qualitative standards. Many of the securities quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board or in the Pink Sheets trade infrequently, which can make it difficult to sell your shares. When shares on the OTC Bulletin Board or in the Pink Sheets do trade, they may move up or down in price very rapidly.
Read a company’s SEC filings. Most public companies file quarterly and annual reports with the SEC. Check the SEC’s EDGAR database to find out if the company is filing reports to the SEC, and read them. Be aware that registering securities and filing reports with the SEC does not mean the company will be a good investment.
Exercise some skepticism. Scammers are very adept at making their pitches appear real, including the use of slick videos and websites. Be extremely wary of any pitch that suggests immediate pay-offs, especially if the investment involves a start-up company or a product or service that is still in development.
If you’re suspicious about an offer or if you think the claims might be exaggerated or misleading, please contact us:
SEC Office of Investor Education and Advocacy
www.sec.gov/complaint.shtml
FINRA Complaint Center
www.finra.org/complaint
www.sec.gov/investor/alerts/oil.htm
Posted by Bob Wilcox, the Guru
Agreed. In reality, traders can still trade a POS but they have to be in and out of it quickly before it tanks or gets suspended. It's risky.
- think
BTDG News
MESA, Ariz., June 16, 2010 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- B2 Digital, Inc. (Pink Sheets:BTDG - News) announced today its wholly owned subsidiary Castle Creek Silver (CCS) plans to implement its option to purchase the 165 acre Castle Creek Silver project. CCS is considered to be a high grade silver prospect. The Company's senior geologist recently completed an on-site review of the property and the Company anticipates work to begin as soon as funding is in place.
CCS is currently planning to initiate an underground mapping and sampling program of accessible historic mine workings, with an objective determining the extent and average grade of mineralization, and organize a subsequent exploration phase based on these results.
Rock samples taken from a robust hydrothermal breccia and associated rocks on the CCS holdings in 2008 yielded gold grades of up to 0.22 opt gold and 57.0 opt silver. The breccia is hosted by altered granodiorite and contains locally massive pyrite, galena, sphalerite, arsenopyrite, and possibly ruby silver within a siliceous, sulfide-bearing matrix. Clasts within the breccia consist of dark grey rhyolite with semi-massive sulfides, massive pyrite with base metal sulfides and massive arsenopyrite, and light-grey quartz. Initial sampling of this breccia returned assays of up to 0.22 opt gold and 29.7 opt silver. The assays of rock samples stated above are from select samples of mineralization, and may not represent the average grade of mineralization on the property.
Despite the existence of extensive, high-grade gold/silver mineralization in the breccia and related mineralized rocks, the CCS holdings have apparently never been tested by drilling. The breccia and associated mineralized rocks suggest the possible existence of a larger diatreme, or breccia-filled volcanic pipe formed by a gaseous explosion. The amount of mineralization existing on the property has not been established at this time. Post-mineral basalts cover the granodiorite locally in the area, and could conceal additional mineralization.
B2 Digital President Paul LaBarre commented, "An asset like Castle Creek could prove to be a high-grade silver prospect." Mr. LaBarre continued, "As we move forward with the work program at Castle Creek, we anticipate providing positive results to our shareholders."
About B2 Digital
B2 Digital is a technology development company with interests in various media sectors involving the use of B2 Digital's technology development experience, which is dedicated to shareholder value through the acquisition and development of promising 21st century businesses, within the technology sector and outside of the technology sector. More information on B2 Digital can be found at http://www.b2digital.us.
About Castle Creek Silver
Castle Creek's strategy is to become a mid-tier silver producer through an aggressive acquisition and development plan focused on advanced-stage projects with known silver resources exhibiting potential for expansion. Castle Creek Silver is primarily focused on pursuing early and advanced stage silver-based opportunities in North America, South America, and Mexico. More information on Castle Creek Silver can be found at http://www.castlecreekmining.com.
This press release contains statements (such as projections regarding future performance) that are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected as a result certain risk and uncertainties, including but not limited to those detailed from time to time in the Company's filings with Pink Sheets.com. Mining projects are subject to numerous risk factors including changing regulations, volatile commodity prices, and others factors that may preclude production should commercially viable reserves be established on a property and exploration plans dependent on funding and approval of any required permits.
ERIC
picked by 6 gurus
Weekly
(click to view a live version of this chart)
Daily
![]() | ||
![]() |
True Wealth June 2011 | True Wealth 6/11. Buy 10.67. Sell: 13. 2yrs. 15% div/yr, 30% 2yrs, 20% cap gain => 50% return in 2 years | |
MAN (H.B.)
![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
PEET JVA CBOU |
| | |
EUR: Bulls Fail to Overcome 1.47
JPY: Double Bottom in the Works?
GBP: Key Trend Line Support Eyed
CAD: Entered Long at Channel Support
AUD: Range-Bound Trade Persists
NZD: Weakness Favored Sub-0.83
http://www.dailyfx.com/
buy: 5.96-6.55 | ||
BAC | Bank Of America | 10.68 | 0.03 | 0.28% | 103,740,114 |
F | Ford Motor | 13.43 | -0.37 | -2.68% | 57,814,683 |
PFE | Pfizer | 20.20 | -0.55 | -2.65% | 36,293,945 |
GE | Gen Electric | 18.30 | -0.28 | -1.51% | 32,087,249 |
C | Citigroup | 37.76 | -0.01 | -0.03% | 30,747,682 |
NOK | Nokia | 6.24 | -0.05 | -0.79% | 28,036,783 |
JPM | Jp Morgan Chase | 40.88 | -0.10 | -0.24% | 25,216,717 |
WFC | Wells Fargo | 26.15 | -0.07 | -0.28% | 25,032,780 |
CIM | Chimera Investment Corp. | 3.52 | -0.06 | -1.68% | 24,109,663 |
S | Sprint Nextel | 5.30 | -0.11 | -2.03% | 22,242,229 |
DIA | QQQQ | SPY | IWM | ||||||
Gold: GLD | Silver: SLV | Copper & Gold: FCX | Copper: FCX JJC COPX | ||||||
Sugar: SGG | Orange Juice: FUD PBJ | Cotton: BAL |
Long-term trend:
I am a shy and quiet person. You are welcomed to read my posts but please do not spread them around other boards. Thank you!
Trading is about managing your money and assessing risk.
Risk management is not about enhancing success; it is about avoiding the failures that are unacceptable.
Think big, think clear.
Think like an investor. Trade like a trader.
Winners never quit and quitters never win.
The price of becoming top trader is extremely high, but certainly worth it.
Success doesn't come overnight.
Successful traders are independent thinkers.
Approach this business with a business plan and the willingness to follow it.
"Human emotion is both the source of opportunity in trading and the greatest challenge. Master it and you will succeed. Ignore it at your peril" Curtis M. Faith
The key to investing and trading is downside protection.
The best way to create an investment checklist is based on looking at crashes.
"You cannot have trading consistency if you do not have emotional consistency" - Dr. Brett Steenbarger from Enhancing Trader Performance.
Trade what you see not what you hear or feel during the day. Plan your trades and trade your plan.
Keep practicing until perfect.
The less I click the buy or sell button prematurely, the more money I make.
Overtrading is also the result of improper trade preparation. Overtrading will greatly reduce your probability of success because you are trading without a plan.
Don't get overexcited when a stock moves up. Greed kills.
Don't get too depressed when a stock moves down. Depression is not good for health. When a trade turns sour, get out. Period.
I would never sell my soul for money as I can't take money with me when I die.
I truly believe that we can make good money honestly. No pump and dump on this board.
This is my personal board to keep track of my trading/investing activities. I am still in the process of finding a good balance to reach my goal of financial freedom and stay healthy. Investing/trading is my hobby. I live in total wellbeing everyday, financially, physically, and emotionally. NOTHING IS WORTH THE STRESS. Anything beyond my target is greed.
This board has unbiased opinion about stocks based on chart, DD, and money game. It may or may not please you, but it is my personal board for my own education, please respect my space. Thank you!
- Find a multi-bagger, buy a lot, and sell gradually on the way up, and exit all near the highest peak. reload with the profits if needed to play again.
- Find an untrending stock that just started the trend. Go long and strong.
- Find a fully established uptrending stock, ride the wave. Simply make 3-10% every other day.
- Find easy money with 5%-10% gain and play often. Play channel.
- Play small with pincher. It's very risky yet highly rewarded. Don't catch a falling knife.
- Before you learn to make profits, learn to run away from a bad stock as fast as you can. Cut your losses quick.
- Be happy with profits. Small profits is better than losses.
- Step out of the expectation herd and trade their reactions to events.
- If you miss a trade, you miss a trade, don't chase. Pay attention to what you have instead of worrying about what you don't have.
basic trading tip: amateur hours: 6:30-7am PST (9:30-10am EST) and 12:00 noon-1pm PST (3-4pm EST): sell during power hour when the stock runs, do not buy during this timeframe.
decisive time for afternoon trend: 11am PST (2pm EST)
US Earnings Calendar
martket data center
Reg SHO list, Rule 3210
Rule 3210 List
highshortinterest.com/
GEOY: wait for gap filled at 26.5 to buy $30 Aug call. don't pay more than 2.35. (fc)
USO: on watch
LAB: 4.30,5.00. wait for gap filled at 3.00 to get in (ev)
FUBC: 8.41,8.70 (ev)
BRNC: 3.50, upto 6. triple bottom play at 3.50
CHNG: wait to buy at lower price. buy upto 12.
CDE: wait to buy more at lower price way below 14.70.
C BAC F MCGI
Market correction 3 months (3 1/2 yr charts): $5-15: AGO GGP RDN $1-$4 (amex): PAL TGB FVE HRT Nasdaq: SLTD SNIC AMD DTG DLA KRY KOG CNEX CROX VVUS STX
PSF: AOI (5.45) BZ (7.25)
KRY: uptrending GO LONG. BIG SUMMER STOK RALLY WHEN MARKETS TURN AROUND. Beijing Bill.
Market tank: VXX TZA FAZ APC
NNVC: buy below $1.40. LT play.
Shopping list for strong watch:
Stock | Entry | Target | Current | Return | Strategy | Risk | DD | Status |
ATUSF | 8.16 | 10.70 | low | wait to buy | ||||
JMBA | 1.50 | |||||||
JOEZ | ||||||||
SNAK | ||||||||
bottom bouncer | ||||||||
CKXE | 4.40 | 5.73 | gap fill | fv | ||||
TWER | 1.40 | 1.80 | bottom bouncer, channel | fv | ||||
KRY | uptrend | fv | new high, wait | |||||
DWCH | 2.11 | 3.10 | uptrend started | fv | new high, wait | |||
TOF | uptrend | fv | new high, strong watch, pullback | |||||
DJSP | 7 | selloff, deep diving, pincher, 3yr | fv | falling knife, wait | ||||
ADPT | 2.40 | bottom bouncer, momo, h&s | fv | wait for the confirmation, buy at bottom, sell at neckline. | ||||
BBGI | 3.50 | uptrend, selloff | fv | wait | ||||
CITZ | 3 | uptrend, selloff | fv | wait | ||||
BRNC | 3.50 | 4.56 | channel, bottom bouncer, lt 2yr | bbe | ||||
NPD | 2 | selloff | fv | wait | ||||
NTZ | 3 | uptrend, selloff, 3 yr | wait | |||||
GEOY | fc | wait for gap filled at 26.5 to buy $30 Aug call. don't pay more than 2.35. | ||||||
LAB | ev | wait for gap filled at 3.0 to buy | ||||||
FUBC | 8.70 | ev | wait for bottom to buy | |||||
CRUS | 12 | uptrend | sm | wait for pullback DD | ||||
JSDA | .73 | 1.88 | gap fill | hsa | wait for gap filled | |||
NBG | 2.00 | lt, bottom bouncer | pss | wait for it to hit mar 09 low and churning before adding | ||||
MXWL | 10.00 | 13.55 | channel down | fv | wait to add at support |
Shopping list for frequent plays:
Stock | Entry | Target | Current | Return | Strategy | Risk | DD | Status |
EML | 100% | Swing | Amex. chart DD | |||||
In play:
Stock | Entry | Target | Current | Return | Strategy | Risk | Status |
LLNW 4.65,VRX 52,JRCC 21,QDEL 17,FRE 1.90 GTE, GPX, & MFA MCRI; S; CMZ; PSEM, DE; MDFI UTSI,DHY,HYF,FLWS
Short:
Name | Stock | Entry | Target | Current | Return | Strategy | Risk | DD | Status |
Moody's | MCO | back to $30 | $10+ gain | Short | low | big people shorted it | |||
Stock Name | Stock | Entry | Target | Current | Return | Strategy | |||
Moody's | MCO | back to $30 | |||||||
Posts about naked shorting.
Naked Short Update Video
Another naked short video from http://www.businessjive.com/
Naked Short List: buyins.net
from socialmediaseo.net
Buy the rumor sell the news. Find a good stock and wait patiently for a good entry to get in and exit.
Take it easy. You can't never time the perfect top and bottom. As long as you pick a winner and it eventually behaves the way you expect it to behave, you will make profits. Start it small. Small profits is better than losses. Don't worry about what you don't have or what you've missed. Pay attention to what you have. Play well!
I think with my mind. Focusing on money management and the habits of a better stock trader. I promised myself to be a better and wiser trader and investor.
The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds... Will Durant (American Historian and Philosopher...1885-1981)
"SUCCESS is peace of mind which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you did the best of which your are capable." - John. R Wooden
Cut your Losses Quick and Let your Profits Run. Dump and run as fast as you can in the other direction. Here is why. Just move on. Don't even think about it. Life has more important things to think. Cut losers quickly and do not sit around waiting for The Market Mistress to rescue you.
STAY FOCUSED!
Be content with what you have. Generate good income gradually.
Stress-free lifestyle. Stress-free investing/trading. When you do it right, money will come. Happiness is peace of mind.
- Keep 50% of the portfolio in cash to wait for the right opportunity. Always feel peaceful even in a rainy day.
- Find some good uptrending stocks and buy on pullbacks to set money aside. Swing trade, relax.
- Slowly move part of momo/daytrade/swingtrade profits to long plays to accumulate wealth slowly but steadily. Stress-free lifestyle!
- Play momos for quick profits. High risk, high return. It's time consuming. You need to really concentrate and babysit your trades.
- Buy stocks that will go up.
Favorite links: stockta.com finviz.com clearstation informedtrades.com free trading courses investopedia.com
Frequent plays:
In play:
Bottom bouncer:
Pond fishing:
Long-term:
On watch: IO JOEZ NNVC JMBA ITI CRXX TGB
Momo:
Long-term:
Uptrend:
Bottom Bouncer:
0.10-2.50:
5.00-10.00: INCY IO
regsho list: http://regsho.finra.org/FORFshvol20100512.txt
- On Watch for market correction: AGO
STRONG WATCH:
Bottom Bouncer:
Market: Dow Components
| | |
| | |
On watch:
Big board:
Template: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=idcn,uu[305,a]dacayaci[pb20!b50][dg]
Stocks:
Stock | Entry | Target | Current | Return | Strategy | Status |
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Momo | ||||||
Bottom Bouncer | ||||||
Bottom Bouncer | ||||||
Bottom Bouncer | ||||||
Long | float lock | |||||
Long | float lock | |||||
Long | float lock | |||||
Long | float lock |
Options: - How to play option for falling wedge pattern: If USO bounces and reaches the $36 target, the USO June 33 calls will be worth at least $3. That's a gain of 200% from the maximum buy price. Calculation: stock target: $36, lowest tip of the falling wedge: $31.85, expected time for the bounce: 3 weeks, stock gain: 36-31.85 ~ $4. => buy option that will expire in one month at the strike price $1 more than the current price ($1 is 1/4 of the gain length $4 and just $1 above the current price), thus $33 strike price. if stock travels back to $36 target, you will make $ on the 3/4 of the gain length.
Stock | Expiration | Option | Strike | Margin | Entry | Current | Return | Status |
I am a disciplined trader/investor. Script: - What is the bigboard market condition today? Selloff. Stay cautious. Play the Fs. - Is this stock a looser? If yes, SELL right away. - Am I in good health today? If yes, trade, else just watch to take profits or don't trade at all.
- What's hot now? Trade it. If the answer is 'yes' in the following, move to the next step, else stop. - Is this stock a winner? - Is it ready? Why? - Take action
Happiness and suffering are states of mind, and so their main causes cannot be found outside the mind. The real source of happiness is inner peace. If our mind is peaceful, we shall be happy all the time, regardless of external conditions, but if it is disturbed or troubled in any way, we shall never be happy, no matter how good our external conditions may be. External conditions can only make us happy if our mind is peaceful. How to Live a Stress-Free Lifestyle http://www.findpeaceofmind.org/ Know what I own. DD every stock that I own or about to own. Be humble and learn from professional players.
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" - John Maynard Keynes
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/quotes-by-john-maynard-keynes/ lowtrade's teaching: NEVER believe the PR story, trade the TA & chart patterns Charts for study by lowtrade Negative chart patterns are Descending triangles, double & multiple tops, heads & shoulders, rising wedges, and gaps below!
Capital Preservation MUST READ FOR NEWBIES
All posts about the penny hype PR retail trap ply in one place! pump and dump volume lesson The AVERAGE daily voulme should be at least 1 mill, want 5 mill for pennies. 10 mil and want 50 with sub penny and 100 mill want 500 mill for micro penny. form-t trade pennant run/retrace/channel days in channel: 2xup to (2xup + down), then run up again. however, if it broke down below 61% FIBs instead of running up, do not enter the trade. cup & handle note: handle is usually in the range of 38% FIBS retracement. if more than that, failed handle. rounded bottom: is not cup and handle. it could look like a cup with a failed handle that retraces > 38%. 2-3 month 2 leg ups, 6 month walk downs: BZCN (more often) 3 month 3 leg ups, 9 month walk downs (less often) bump & run by lowtrade, stockcharts's bum & run pattern short shortable stocks ADX lesson Trade negative with ADX above 50. Shows strong down move support, by many. If the trend reverses that support will fight change, usually creating a smaller slower run. With trade negative with little move support, below 15 and a trend reversal comes, there aren't many to fight change and usually run moves faster and higher. The more direction support, the less reversal support. Is how it usually works out. Entry/Exit Signals -DI crosses above +DI (-DI is going up), early sell signal -DI is up and ADX is turning upward toward 50, confirmed sell signal +DI crosses above -DI (+DI is going up), early buy signal +DI crosses above -DI and ADX moves in the same direction as +DI, confirmed buy signal +DI crosses below -DI (+DI is going south) and then +DI moves back at the same level again (where it crossed below -DI before) => confirm buy signal Use CCI (70) to eliminate whipsaws of which you get using lower cycles. Usually find bottom with CCI (70). CMF lesson: .25 is strong force Charts for study 3 money flow indicators: OBV, acc/dist, CMF Dilution is good in penny stock, but you should wait for dilution to finish to get cheap shares. FIBs
lowtrade would teach all Some tips. important spot (a place to find old important subjects covered) by lowtrade
"Step out of the herd mentality and trade the reactions. Learn technical analysis & charting" - lowtrade "There were two bulls on top of a hill. A young one and an old one. They looked down in the valley and saw a herd of cows. The young bull said I'm going to run down there and make love to one of those cows. The old one said I'll walk down and make love to all the others. Being first is not always the best decision! Emotion rules logic." - lowtrade By knowing that constant EOD finishes high, with a down trending price, shows manipulation. And when manipulation is suspect, just forget accumulation as a supporting indicator. For that matter when using TA to evaluate a stock. Any time you see a conflict in the TA & chart. STOP using those indicators as factual and either move out or stop watching. Because conflicts cause errors. And if your looking at a stock with technical errors, you can't TRUST what you see. Why stick around. - lowtrade level 2 lesson Patterns: Stock market education from themarketguys. How to place a momo order? When a stock is running up, buy at or above the ask immediately. When a stock is going down, sell at or below the bid immediately to get out.
Favorite boards:
pennystockden.com nice site to find stock to buy at support. this is not a promoter. UNDERVALUED PENNY STOCKS TAKI BB's Stock Haven MOMO Breakout $BottomBuster DAYTRADER'S FORUM langlui's bigboard and option plays langlui's penny / barter board EpicStocks americanbulls.com the penny stock gurus mirror: http://pennystockgurus.lefora.com pennystockalerts.com http://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html triple leveraged etfs MM sec-fillings sec-fillings2 cnanalyst setting filters using EquityFeed on HSM (HotStockMarket.com)
SELF ASSESSMENT:
Current: researcher, investor, intermediate-level penny trader, intermediate-level option trader Want to be: professional chartist, emotionless trader, professional trader (pink, otc, penny, option, etc.). Do my own DD. While most of my money is made via short-term/momo/bottom bouncer/day/swing trading, my passion is still in long-term investment, researching and studying the market and understanding the whole market as well as pinky/otc world. PROGRESS CHECK:
- Know how to read chart - Can determine a good entry and exit point to maximize profits and cut losses quick - Know what stock to buy and what stock to avoid - Know when to take profits or when to cut losses and move on Area of improvement: - Need to be patient. Do what the chart says. Nothing else. - Learn more about short squeeze (fld) play: CDIV EIGH GRNO PNTV - Sharpen my trading skills - Don't let emotion affect my analysis GOALS: To build wealth consistently and healthily. To make at least 1000% annually safely and stresslessly. (It's not a typo. :)). Note to self: "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." - Thomas A. Edison "I never did a day's work in my life. It was all fun." - Thomas A. Edison "If we all did the things we are capable of doing, we would literally astound ourselves." - Thomas A. Edison "Just because something doesn't do what you planned it to do doesn't mean it's useless." - Thomas A. Edison "Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up." - Thomas A. Edison "Genius is one per cent inspiration, ninety-nine per cent perspiration." - Thomas A. Edison "Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life" - Confucius "Successful traders take responsibility for their actions. They believe their success is due to their well-developed skills and persistent effort, rather than a matter of circumstance, luck or chance." Michael S. Shopshire, Ph.D. - "The Winning Trader, Developing a Mental Edge for Market Success"
Value penny stocks with gains as of 6/28/2010: DSTI, CPWM, IMOS, ABR, WNC, EMMS, SMCG, MHR, NENG, GRT, SBSA, SFI, MHGC, GSAT, NSU, FRME, PGTI, RNN, LCC
Top Beta Stocks:
Example trading plan by lowtrade: Take the money you have to lose, divide that by 4 and invest 3/4th and gamble 1/4th.
Say you have $10,000,
On ave. you will see a: 10% swing $.10 to $1.00 stocks 5% swing $1.00 to $5.00 stocks 2.5% swing $5.00 to $10.00 stocks 2.5% to 1% swing on stocks above $10.00 Yep, 50,100,200 SMA, MACD, RSI, Accum/Dist are for 3 month or more hold trades. The indicators 5,10,20 SMA, DMI, StochRSI, CMF I use are for 2 week swing trades. I'll add, knowing your more high risk and big gains. Try lowering my entry/exit indicator parameters. I use 14 day for DMI could move to 7 day. And I use 5,10,20 day SMA for the overlay. Could use 2,4,8. This will tighten up and compliment your style of quick big money trading. Stay away from long term indicators completely. - lowtrade lowtrade's detailed trading plan here.
ETF:
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/currency-etfs.html
Futures:
ETN/ETF Launch: Tin, Platinum, Lead, Aluminum, Precious Metals (NYX, JJT, PGM, LD, JJU, JJP) ETN/ETF Launch: Sugar, Softs, Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa (NYX, SGC, JJS, BAL, JO, NIB) ETN/ETF Launch: Carbon Trading: (NYX, GRN)
http://www.direxionshares.com/etf/ http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/agriculture-crop-price-etfs.html Energy: ERX ERY
ProShares Researches: http://www.mffais.com/ , http://www.sagientresearch.com/, http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/ Commentary: http://www.istockanalyst.com/ Instant Technical Analysis: http://www.barchart.com/ Forexfactory.com james16 Chart: Treat investment/trading as a business. Dividend Growth Investor: www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/
I prefer to play the primary trend (which is down), rather than to get very cute and try to catch both the up and down moves since it just increases the degree of difficulty and opens up more chances for mistakes.
Longer term, caution reigns again as long as we're below the 200 day moving average(s). That does not mean necessarily to be all out short or try to score a 10% win for the portfolio on the downside. It means capital preservation as first priority and monetary gains on top of preservation is the cherry on top. Making up a 3% loss is much easier than a 13% loss.
1. Here is what I think when I hear from the gurus, sense and analyze by myself that a double dip recession is about to occur: - Save enough money to live for a year without working - Keep big cash to buy the dips when the dust is settled - Day trade with a fix amount of money to generate daily/weekly/monthly income so that I don't even need to touch my savings or emergency fund. - Short if a great opportunity presents Value Investors: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Charles Royce, John Neff, Joel Greenblatt, Peter Lynch, Seth Klarman,Martin Whitman, Bruce Greenwald, Jeff Auxier Value Penny Stock Investors/Gurus: Steve Cohen, Jim Simmons, George Soros, Ian Cumming, Ron Barron, Richard Perry, Arnold Schneider, Michael Price, Ken Heebner, Jean-Marrie Eveillard, John Keeley, Paul Tudor Jones
How To Take Advantage Of The Market Afternoon Shift by Austin Passamonte Capturing Sharp Moves Using Volatility and Structure by TradingMarkets Research More readings
More:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=m5
________________________________________________________________
They include ITT Corporation (ITT), Danaher (DHR), Nalco Holdings (NLC), and Veolia Environmental (VE). You can also try the water ETF, the PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio, (PHO).
________________________________________________________________
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275148-cramer-s-mad-money-2-outstanding-cyber-security-stocks-6-15-11
Fortinet (FTNT) provides its customers with unified threat management and all-around protection. The system is cheaper and less complex than purchasing several systems. The company has great earnings visibility with 60% of its revenues from subscriptions. Fortinet reported an excellent quarter, but since the stock has a multiple of 55 compared to its 17% growth rate, Cramer would wait for it to come down. $21 is a good level.
Websense (WBSN) provides security for cloud computing, which tends to be more vulnerable to attack than traditional systems. Salesforce.com (CRM) used Websense's services for its cloud computing platforms. Since the company is undergoing a "transition year" it might miss its quarter, but is a great long-term security play with a multiple of 14.5 with a 13.3% growth rate.
Cramer took some calls:
Infosys (INFY) is not as good as Accenture (ACN).
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is a buy when its yield is 4%. Right now, its dividend is 2.7%
Juniper (JNPR), like other tech stocks, is in pain right now, although Cramer says he believes in CEO Kevin Johnson. He advised waiting for earnings.
This Market Is Obnoxious, with stocks Travelzoo (TZOO), Bank of America (BAC), BP (BP), Conoco-Phillips (COP)
This market is "totally and completely obnoxious," said Cramer on the same terrible macro themes. However, this hatred of the stocks will play out, sellers will sell out and buyers will return. Earnings reports of individual companies are usually brighter than the macro data would suggest.
Cramer took some calls:
Travelzoo (TZOO) has been a big winner. It saw a major short squeeze and is not a stock for the squeamish. Those who hold the stock should sell some off the top.
Bank of America (BAC) is the cheapest Cramer has seen it, but it is likely not going higher anytime soon.
BP (BP) always seems to be in trouble with somebody. Cramer prefers Conoco-Phillips (COP), especially for its dividend.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Featured Trades: (DBA), (MOO), (PHO), (FIW),
(INTERNET BANKS), (BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS)
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |