Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Yikes have much new messages to read, anyway in the kiddie pool MISC just busted an under 8 for the bubble gum set!
You are a trader, and I'm an investor. We are indeed very different. For the most part anyway. I have some speculative things, but everything in the end is all about expectations. And it sure doesn't mean I can't change my mind if the story of any investment changes. For the better or worse...
My latest *activity* would have been yesterday:
08/04/22 Bought To Cover 9 M Jan 20 '23 $40 Call(M) @ $0.07 Unassigned -63.09
08/04/22 Bought To Cover 1 M Jan 20 '23 $40 Call(M) @ $0.07 Unassigned -7.01
Translation: Figured, why not close out the covered call I wrote that expires this January for only $70. Small price to pay in case anything *unexpected* happens on that runway, like Macy's sells Herald Square or spins off their digital business.
Because prior to that, I made myself a self-made "dividend" in the form a covered call way back here:
These were not trades. Just a self-made dividend with a price ceiling of $40. I figured, worst case scenario, I get called out at $40 which is a decent valuation for Macy's. My LONG TERM hold. Bought that when it was on fire too. Which goes way back to April of this year:
07/01/22 Dividend MACYS INC CASH DIV ON 1000 SHS REC 06/15/22 PAY 07/01/22 Unassigned 157.50
04/06/22 Sold Short 10 M Jan 20 '23 $40 Call(M) @ $0.91 Unassigned 904.87
So, $904 - 70 + 157 (real dividend) is just a sweet extra $1,000 pre-tax income, which I don't need because I'm a minimalist. So it stays in my acct. to work for me. And I'll pay taxes on it too, because I still don't have any "dogs" I'd like to sell. Every dog has its day. At least, in my portfolio. Which I put up for review, and you are more than welcome to become my Devil's Advocate on any on of them. Or rather, join my many devil's advocates on each one. :)
What that transaction was about was win-win-win. All bases covered. Always! Now my shares are unrestricted again. For a small cost of $70, I may get the opportunity to sell another covered call in that formerly restricted time frame for another $840 on the net. Or not. Didn't have to close it out. Just decided, why not? Just $70.
And, yes, your expectations in regard to NILE are all nefarious in nature. And you may be right. You are basing all this on past experiences and/or interpretations of your observations. Which have shaped your *expectations.* But you also reject his testimony, and perhaps he may prove you wrong. Or not. And others may or may not share your sentiments. Ie, expectations of what is to come. Could be considered a prejudice as well. Or bias. Rightly or wrongly. Well founded or not. Matters not. Nothing wrong with that one way or another. But they are expectations. The truth will come out of the shake regardless. And truth can be elusive.
Jury is still out on NILE and whether they can orchestrate a pump higher here. I'm just going on their past history...which has been a complete disaster. NILE stock is down what 99.9% in the last 5 years. You know what they say about past behavior being the best predictor of future behavior. I guess the only question is when is their next reverse split.
Gotcha. If you haven't bought a real stock since June, we obviously have very different time horizons. I've bought and sold dozens of stocks just this week. Many on earnings news. Good luck on PCYO
It's way overvalued in your OPINION. NILE clearly disagrees with you. They are part of the market whether you get that or not.
NILE is still here for a reason. You've made many assumptions. And you EXPECT a quarterly result that will confirm your valuation. And the market may not agree with you. NILE definitely does not agree with you. They have expectations as well.
I never worry about the expectations because I invest. I'm not a trader or market timer. I buy value. I don't forecast. Quarterly predictions are folly. As Buffett notes often.
I can retort all day as well.
The last stock I bought that actually counts, and not the penny stock NILE I bought. Would be MORE of this one:
06/13/22 Bought 986 of PCYO @ $9.87 (Order #1986) Unassigned -9,731.82
06/13/22 Bought 14 of PCYO @ $9.865 (Order #1986) Unassigned -138.11
No analyst coverage on taht either. And not worried at all! I could care less if we go into a recession or not. A future dividend water municipality that owns real estate and monetizing that real estate. Time horizon: As far out as the eye can see and beyond. Decades hopefully if the story doesn't change. What happens next quarter or next year, I coudl care less.
I'm going to bed and I'll leave you to foam at the mouth all night.
Ummm no. NILE is clearly propping up the stock. I've said the stock is way overvalued at $8, and it would drop at least 50% if NILE bailed. But NILE is still here. Because NILE is here the stock won't drop on earnings next week. I already posted that. You should do more reading and less name calling. I guess when you're clearly beaten, it's time to lash out.
I could point out all the things wrong in your post. Again. But obviously that is going nowhere. So I'll just ask a simple question...how do you ever buy a stock??? With this obsession over Mr Market and his constant expectations that can never be known, it seems like an impossible task. What is the last stock you bought and why? Were you not worried what the secret expectations might be?
In fact, the know-it-all narcissist here has stated on the record that MICS is OVERVALUED. Isn't that right, Hweb? You think this is overvalud and NILE is propping it up. You sold based on this, and you have predicted it will fall back to $4. This your EXPECTATIONS. Also, your ASSUMPTIONS of why NILE is here in the first place. You reject his statements on the record.
The stock hasn't fallen yet. It seems to have a different set of expectations from yours. And if it doesn't fall after the bad quarter you *expect*, then what? Exactly! It will mean the market had it all priced in. That it wasn't surprised and that it is valuing the stock at $8. Its expectations met. We will see. Your expectations are obviously not aligned with the stock's current expectations. AS A WHOLE, the Mr. Markets has expectations. You are a subset of that. I am too. So is NILE. Including shorts. This is not rocket science.
I've never said anything of those things and I challenge you to pull up an exact quote.;
1. p/s is useful. It may not be to your, but I challenge you to pull up some credible source that says it isn't. I'll pull up an equally credible source that says it is. It's a metric. As useless by itself as your what you defined a recession to be as two quarters of GDP. YOur defintion of a recession is wrong. You brought up a tool. I however recognize p/s as a tool and not a valuation unto itself.
2. I never said you never need to sell a stock for a loss just to offset capital gains. IFF I had a loser, I would. I also never said if you hold anything long enough, a stock would come back. In fact, I buy value from the start. As in MICS> And it went it went down, I bought more. And eventually truth prevailed.
3. MICS could indeed beat earnings expecations. IF they post a $5 million profit, that would safely beat expectations. I don' tknow what the market expects, but I know $5 million would blow it out of the water. I sure don't expect anything close to that. Thsi is fact. Because the expectations are priced in. Thje stock will done one of three things: It will go up, down, or do nothing. It will let us know at that time if its expectations were beat. You expect a bad quarter as you stated on the record several time. This is naturally expected because this is a seasonal business. The market may have that alerady priced in. I don't know what the market has priced in. That's speculation. This is fact, but it does have expectations.
Because you are cocnfused and think analysts target prices are market expectations is on you, not me. I've already explained toyou what I meant. And it's the truth whether you get it or not.
If you've been doing this 25 years, you should know better. But I guess you still think that price to sales is a valuable metric. And that you never need to sell for a loss, that a stock will come back if you hold long enough. That's obviously VERY wrong. Who knows how much money that has cost you over the years. But I'm the stubborn one. Because I asked you to back up your statement that MICS could beat earnings expectations, even though nobody knows what those expectations are. Should be simple to do if there actually were expectations for MICS revenues & earnings next week, but you were unable to because they don't exist. I don't even know how you can continue to argue this. Keep digging that hole I guess. Go right ahead. I'm done with this. We can talk after the MICS earnings next week. To see if they exceeded expectations haha
This reminds me of the time I told my biology professor friend that lactose tolerance is a very recent beneficial adaptation in human history. He teaches biology at the university level and got furious with me. Later, he insisted that I just didn't "understand" what he was saying. He acted like you. Probably because he fell into the trap of not being able to learn anymore. Maybe he felt too educated to learn or that I couldn't know something he didnt'. Later, I had to evict him. Long story, but his case work did tell me he had bipolar grandiocity. The grandicity is what I think I witnessed in that episode. True story.
Yes, numbers drive price. Long term. The market is a weighing machine long term. The inefficient market in the meantime is driven by expectations of future numbers. They could even be interest rates, or an earthquake. Mr. Market has expectations. These expectations and numbers are not mutually excluive. Numbers are a subset of those expectations. They may or may not agree with analyst expectations IFF there are analysts. But regardless, all stocks have expectations.
The reason MICS is $8 is because it is valued at $8. By the market, of which NILE is a part. And, yes, those numbers have influenced NILE and others to be here. Myself included. Which is why I bought at 4 and made profit here. Very fast profit. My expectations were not met. Your expecations are for bad numbers. And you will probably be right. But will be they be bad enough to fail the market's expectatios here? You don't know. You can think you now, but you don't know. Your predictions could be falsified but never proven. Same with a coin flip. Predictions can be falsified but not proven. In fact, science, above all else, implies falsifiability.
I've been doing this probably 25 years too. That is a moot point. My biology professor friend had a Master's in biology and I didn't. Again, moot point. Market has expecations just as sure as lactose tolerance is a recent beneficial adaptation. Less than 25,000 years ago, in fact.
When earnings come out, those numbers may indeed be stellar. Or at least, stellar in regard to what bad numbers we all *expect* to see from an *expected* bad quarter. Because it's a seasonal business. The market may find the valuation is too low in its forward looking analysis after those numbers. There is even a whole field called behaviioral finance where these expectations can be anchored, in fact. This is what they call sentiment. No reason to be a pompus ass if you no longer able to learn and know it all. An educated man never stops learning. It's actually more important to be right than it is to be "not wrong."
Come to think of it, that biology teacher also taught a nutrition class. He didn't know 3,500 calories are required to burn one lb. of fat. He got furious about that too. Some of us probably have a better of understanding of the marcro mechanics of things than the self-proclaimed experts. Maybe you just don't fully understand what it is you read. Maybe you tested well from those textbooks but didn't quitte grasp it. Which makes me wonder why my biology friend I evicted wasn't fit, when in fact, he had all the answers for fitness.
You can boast all the experience you want and pump your chest, but facts are facts. It doesn't matter where they come from.
OMG I give up. So there's these mysterious earnings expectations on every microcap without analyst coverage. Nobody can ever actually know what these expectations are. And these expectations are what drives the price after earnings (NOT the actual numbers of course). I normally say to each their own...but this is bizarro world stuff. But hey what do I know, I only read through hundreds & hundreds of earnings reports every quarter and watch the resulting stock action. And have been doing this for 25 years.
That's not true. The expectations could be exceeded. It does not necessarily follow that any one individual would know precisely what they are. Expectations are not necessarily quantifiable. And if they were, most definitely would not be efficient.
The market will let us know. AFTER the fact. As I said, the market will react positively, negatively, or not at all. Mr. Market's expectations may be exceeded. I would not know what his expectations are. He will let us know. What is known is that the we are in a bad quarter. Is Mr. Market expecting a bad quarter? I don't know what his expectations are. NILE, of course, is part of the market. It may be a bad quarter but not as bad as one would think. What does Mr. Market think? Awe, but that's the rub. But he does have expectations. It's called sentiment.
Ok thank you! You can't exceed expectations...when nobody knows what those expectations are.
"I wold not be able to tell you what those expecations are; otherwise, I'd have a crystal ball. Which I already said I don't have. Nor does anyone."
That would be in the context of analysts' expectations. This company has no analyst coverage.
Perhaps sentiment would be a better word. Market sentiment has expectations. Which may or may not be in agreement with analysts' sentiment, if any. Market sentiment as a whole is a function of expectations, and it's not limited to analysts consensus, if any. It is much more encompassing. And MICS may or may not exceed those expectations that are priced into the stock -- IE market sentiment. I wold not be able to tell you what those expecations are; otherwise, I'd have a crystal ball. Which I already said I don't have. Nor does anyone.
I'll never miss an episode of Squawk box on CNBC If Warren Buffett is on there.
You must never have watched CNBC. Whenever a company beats the analyst estimates...they always say the company beat expectations!!!!
Let's keep it simple. Tell me what the expectations are for MICS revenues & earnings next week. When you can't, you'll finally understand my point. You're trying to quantify something that is unknowable.
That is true and I still don't know where he was pulling $52M from. Or why he said it so many times. That is a mystery to me. That was a disappointment.
Analyst estimates are not expectations. They are merely estimates. You can have consensus estimates. The market is often disconnected with analysts. I've seen numerous examples where consensus analyst estimates were exceeded, but Mr. Market's expectations were not, and the stock would falls sharply. Or vice versa.
I never said we could exceed analysts expectations. I said expectations. As in Mr. Market's expectations. Which is just market sentiment. No contradiction there.
You haven't been making money for 25 years by splitting hairs. I've been probably doing it jsut the same amount of time in undervalue stocks, and I have a very good nest egg from doing so. On just my own acct. Kuddos to you.
2 negative quarters of GDP is not the textbook definition. There is no fixed rule. Just as p/s is not fixed measure but rather a tool. What you define as a "textbook definition" is actually just a metric. Recessions aren't even fully known until after they happen because the data is slow in coming in. Which may or not confirm one's expectations of a recession on the horizon. It's much more encompassing, inclusive of incomes which are rising and not falling as they would in a classic defintion of a recession. Employment is considered, which is healthy. Retail sales, industral, etc. etc.
You were basing it on that $52M revenue figure that the NILE guys were tossing around...which was a fair assumption. I just don't trust those guys.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this expectations thing. Unless you can provide what the expectations are for Q1 revenues & earnings next week. Usually pretty easy to look up, but MICS doesn't have any. Not yet at least. They might get analyst coverage down the road.
You are right. I did think that. "In my opinion" and as "I suspect," but I certainly never forecasted. And my expectations indeed were not met. Mr. Market's expectations, however, seem to have been met.
And you thought Q4 was going to be a blowout in terms of expectations. Again with the expectations! It sure wasn't. If it wasn't for NILE, the stock would have cratered back to $3 on those numbers.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169369721
Guidance comes from the company. I know we don't have that duh. But are you familiar with analyst estimates?? You can check them on Yahoo for most listed stocks. The tiny companies often have no estimates. As is the case with MICS.
We always have expectations?? Again you are contradicting yourself...as that would be an efficient market. Which we do not have when it comes to microcaps. How I've been able to make money for the past 25 years. Buying undervalued stocks and then waiting for other people to find them.
We did just have 2 negative quarters of GDP. That's the textbook definition of a recession. So even if I saw we were 100% headed for a recession (which I didn't), it would have been a great call!
Guidance and expectatons are two different things. You are talking guidance. We have no guidance. Mr. Market may or may not agree with guidance.
We DO have expectatios. We ALWAYS have expectations. With or without guidance. It's called PRICE. IE, Valuation. Not rocket science.
Imperfect market. That's why the stock will react positively negatively, or not at all when earnings are relase. Capiche?
And, no, you said we are most definitely in a recession. You can believe anything you want. But just be aware that your beliefes maybe faulty ass*umptions. I never make assumptions. I don't time markets; I don't forecast. I just invest. And I've stated clearly my reasons why I'm not invested now. And it has nothing to do with next quarter. Yes, the MICS is a seasonal business. Nobody disputed this. Ever!
Now, let me repeat myself Posted today right here:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169587042
Still has potential to exceed expectations this month. Doesn't' matter how bad the two bad quarters are as long as expectations are beat.
That means, the stock may still participate in this really which you were, and I quote, "suprised," that it wasn't. All it has to do is beat Mr. Market's expectations. Expectations are not guidance. Expectations are valuations given by Mr. Market at any time.
Huh? I said we are definitely going into a recession? That must be someone else. I never say anything is 100% certain. I still think we are. And that this recent rally is a gift selling opportunity.
I'm confused BECAUSE THERE ARE NO EXPECTATIONS for earnings here. Do you not get this?? Tell me what the estimates are for the top & bottom lines then. You won't find them. Because they don't exist. You can't beat or miss expectations...when there are no expectations!
Glad you came around on seasonality. I told you about this into the Q4 numbers. And for some reason you were still expecting good results. They were terrible...as I predicted. I'm guessing fiscal Q1 next week will also be a dud. You were expecting a blowout quarter in one of your past posts. We'll see who is closer.
I agree that it's a seasonal business and a fact. I never disputed the fact. In fact, I confirmed it yet you seem confused.
Efficient or not, the price is about expectations. Why are you confused? That's why they call it a market. If it was efficient, you wouldn't have any expectations beaten or missed. Instead, it's inefficient. Hence, next quarter could meet, beat, or disappoint. Logical, yes?
I never said you were wrong. What I said is that it is irrelevant if it's bad. All the company has to do is exceed expectations. Not rocket science. The bad and/or good are priced in. That's called expectations of the imperfect market.
Mr. Market may react positively or negatively or no reaction at all. I don't have that crystal ball. IF I did, I'm sure others would have it as well and we'd have an efficient market.
You were wrong, however, in saying we are most definitely going into a recession. That is not a consensus by any means, and the FED doesn't claim we are in one. You may or may not be correct in your prediction. But you certainly don't know this as "inevitable."
Um ok. You don't believe in efficient market theory but seem to give a lot of credence to whatever Mr Market is expecting each day. That doesn't make any sense, but whatever.
The seasonality of MICS is a fact. It's not something I made up. The quarterly report next week won't be great. It can't be...because of the seasonality. They might get some extra revenue because of the expanded Walmart deal. But even then, the bottom line might be breakeven at best? I don't see anyone buying at $8 because of that report. Not that earnings will even matter...NILE is in command here.
If you think I'm way wrong (and Mr Market too I guess) about earnings next week...why aren't you buying? Stock will fly if they post a blowout quarter.
The expectations are posted daily for you by Mr. Market. The price -- the valuation as set by Mr. Market which is forward looking. In the efficient market theory, that would indeed be the false assumption you would make. But it's an inefficient market on this kind of time horizon. And the market is valuing MICS at $8 per share as a whole based on expectations. Those expectations can be exceeded or not.
Now, you yourself claimed that "everybody" understands that next quarter will be bad. If "everbody" understands this and it' snot bad, that would mean that "everybody's" expectatiosn were exceeded. Unless you want to change your testimony?
As for my expectations, I have none. I don't dabble in such folly. But Mr. Market as a whole does. That's what they call timing the market. A fool's game.
I'm still confused. Because there are no expectations. If so, what are they? Whatever you might be expecting or I might be expecting from earnings next week...you can't expand that and assume that's what the entire market is thinking.
Expectations from the Mr. Market. Not talking about guidance. The inefficient market. Not the mythical efficient one. The efficient one only resides on the long arm of the weighing machine.
How can you exceed expectations when there are no expectations? At least I'm not seeing any analyst estimates on MICS?
Still has potential to exceed expectations this month. Doesn't' matter how bad the two bad quarters are as long as expectations are beat.
The FED doesn't call this a recession, and many economists do not call it inevitable. Many standard measures layman use are not really valid. We have very good employment, mainly due to a shrinking labor force. Dysfunctional congress can't address comprehensive immigration reform which has only been on the table for about two decades. Instead, fear mongers turn it into a border wall or some other fear tactic which it shouldn't be about. Or some slow moving Carivan in South American of women in children, walking barefoot and starving while marching towards an invasion of our borders. LOL
I'm getting flush with purchasing power with these great runs lately. Great numbers put up by QSR today. About to come into MICS busy season, and we may even get a January effect this time around.
MICS is like the restaurant business. For those that have that as their sole industry, they have to starve from July to August. Two months of breadcrumbs across the industry. At least in fine dining. And the better restaurants somewhere between casual and fine dining. Whatever that would be called. MICS should use their broad mission statement to find a a different yet related business to be in during its two slow quarters. Maybe something slow where MICS gets busy to offset it all. That would be smooth sailing.
Instead, they are in the waiter dilemma. Do you plan for famine in Summer? Or do you buy that house you THINK you can afford because you are in a December bubble illusion. LOL For real...
There's plenty of low floaters on parabolic runs in this market euphoria...I'm a little surprised MICS hasn't gotten a spike yet.
MICS 8.12 close, is it possible for MICS to be a favored low float play?
OT: Nile quy minted 59 bitcoins, said he does not intend to sell, ha maybe kitty for more MICS?
Fact every buy in 7's last few weeks found a nice hope to get again.
MICS Alamo defended hard to keep the $8's today!
He continues to buy his NILE stock, spending close to 50 K today and almost same other day as his stock declines?
NILE has taken its seats:
"...today announced two officers from BitNile Holdings, Inc. (“BitNile”) (NYSE American: NILE) have been appointed to join the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”). The new Board members are Kenneth S. Cragun, BitNile’s Chief Financial Officer, and James M. Turner, Deputy General Counsel and VP of Legal Affairs. The Company is also adding a senior member of management, Bernardo Melo, its Chief Revenue Officer, to the Board. Gary Atkinson, Company CEO, will serve as Chairman of the newly formed Board of Directors. Messrs. Cragun, Turner and Melo all bring industry-leading experience from their respective financial, legal and sales expertise to the Company.
Mr. Cragun currently serves as Chief Financial Officer of BitNile and has been the CFO of two NASDAQ-listed companies..."
Short interest updated. Fell slightly. I still don't understand why be short. Stock is overvalued yes. But way too dangerous on the short side with NILE trying to buy the float.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mics/short-interest
Of course he's trying to initiate a short squeeze. And/or keep the stock propped up. Otherwise...why buy every day?? If he didn't buy for a couple weeks, the stock would be back at $5 or lower. THEN he could do some buying. That's the way a normal investor who wanted to increase his stake at a cheaper price would do things.
He did it again:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15967336&guid=V4k-knHfISRXB3h
1,644,000 shares now. I don't think Ault's goal is to initiate a short squeeze. He just takes nibbles here and there. He could have made all these purchases in one day weeks ago and initiated a short squeeze. That's not his goal.
He is nibbling at his value price.
It's all about whether NILE is able to orchestrate the short squeeze they are so desperately trying to create. If so, this spikes over $10. If not, it's back below $5. Place your bets...
MICS glad I gave up even microscopic 7 tries , 5's more interesting
to root for even lower, as must balance the short interest and the low float status and the loose dumb money cult ready to pounce on short squeeze signs.
Not sure why it would make you mad. MICS had a lousy Q4. And the consumer has slowed since then. Check the sobering news from WMT after the bell. Selling karaoke stuff (which a lot of people bought during the pandemic) is just not where you want to be heading into a recession. It's about as discretionary a purchase as I can think of. MICS should be trading in the $2's or $3's based on fundamentals imo. Ya know where it was trading at the beginning of last month...before we got the terrible Q4 results. So it makes perfect sense for anyone to be selling in the $7's.
That shouldn't make any sense based on the price. Who the heck is selling to them? Insiders I think, making the float much larger that it should be. Probably StingRay is my first suspicion.
Makes me mad!
MICS waiting for 6's to see if I can catch some confusion.
NILE still at it. They bought nearly 35K shares last Thursday! Looks like they're going down with the ship...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/896493/000121465922009144/xslF345X03/marketforms-56711.xml
Followers
|
29
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
897
|
Created
|
10/11/09
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
HIGHLIGHTS (As of 7-15-22):
3 Million Shares Outstanding
Market Cap - Under $25 million (close to p/s of .5)
$47.5 million annual revenue with $200,000 *net profit* (diluted from .14 to .06 eps per share on current OS)
Long stable history: Founded in 1982. Went public in 1994.
BITNILE OWNS A 59% STAKE IN MICS
An inspiring power-grab of majority ownership all done in less than a few months.
BitNile is a public company traded under ticker NILE
Excerpt from conference call dated 7-15-22
STINGRAY GROUP HOLDS A 10.68% STAKE IN MICS
Sadly, an uninspiring decrease in percentage ownership in less than one year
Stringray is a public company on the Toronto Stock Exchange: Stingray (TSX: RAY.A)
JUNE 2022 INVESTORS' PRESENTATION
This Author's Interpretation Only
Author sold all shares for a Net Profit of $6,900
Will take new position under $4 IFFFF that opportunity presents itself again.
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |