This reminds me of the time I told my biology professor friend that lactose tolerance is a very recent beneficial adaptation in human history. He teaches biology at the university level and got furious with me. Later, he insisted that I just didn't "understand" what he was saying. He acted like you. Probably because he fell into the trap of not being able to learn anymore. Maybe he felt too educated to learn or that I couldn't know something he didnt'. Later, I had to evict him. Long story, but his case work did tell me he had bipolar grandiocity. The grandicity is what I think I witnessed in that episode. True story.
Yes, numbers drive price. Long term. The market is a weighing machine long term. The inefficient market in the meantime is driven by expectations of future numbers. They could even be interest rates, or an earthquake. Mr. Market has expectations. These expectations and numbers are not mutually excluive. Numbers are a subset of those expectations. They may or may not agree with analyst expectations IFF there are analysts. But regardless, all stocks have expectations.
The reason MICS is $8 is because it is valued at $8. By the market, of which NILE is a part. And, yes, those numbers have influenced NILE and others to be here. Myself included. Which is why I bought at 4 and made profit here. Very fast profit. My expectations were not met. Your expecations are for bad numbers. And you will probably be right. But will be they be bad enough to fail the market's expectatios here? You don't know. You can think you now, but you don't know. Your predictions could be falsified but never proven. Same with a coin flip. Predictions can be falsified but not proven. In fact, science, above all else, implies falsifiability.
I've been doing this probably 25 years too. That is a moot point. My biology professor friend had a Master's in biology and I didn't. Again, moot point. Market has expecations just as sure as lactose tolerance is a recent beneficial adaptation. Less than 25,000 years ago, in fact.
When earnings come out, those numbers may indeed be stellar. Or at least, stellar in regard to what bad numbers we all *expect* to see from an *expected* bad quarter. Because it's a seasonal business. The market may find the valuation is too low in its forward looking analysis after those numbers. There is even a whole field called behaviioral finance where these expectations can be anchored, in fact. This is what they call sentiment. No reason to be a pompus ass if you no longer able to learn and know it all. An educated man never stops learning. It's actually more important to be right than it is to be "not wrong."
Come to think of it, that biology teacher also taught a nutrition class. He didn't know 3,500 calories are required to burn one lb. of fat. He got furious about that too. Some of us probably have a better of understanding of the marcro mechanics of things than the self-proclaimed experts. Maybe you just don't fully understand what it is you read. Maybe you tested well from those textbooks but didn't quitte grasp it. Which makes me wonder why my biology friend I evicted wasn't fit, when in fact, he had all the answers for fitness.
You can boast all the experience you want and pump your chest, but facts are facts. It doesn't matter where they come from.
