Short Term Trading Member Forum

[jglider]

In early Dec I felt the upcoming s/t swing would have most leaning the wrong way. I think many were looking for a mid month dump. Ya well here again pure cycle theory without the use of the underlying power indicators had many missing out or loosing as they were shorting or they kept moving the goal posts out.

Been a good year for slow traders. Next year will be equally rewarding for those that understand what's going on. But 24 will bring some interesting twists that few will understand when it comes to the relationship between general equalities, commodities and currencies.. Had mentioned a target date where I'll be getting real active again, at that point the unusual relationship should become obvious and possibly hold for 75% of the year.

gl

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Dec 19 2023 463.0 Call Limit 8.00 -- -- 14:13:22 12/14/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 4 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.22 -- -- 13:31:45 12/06/23
Filled Buy to Open 4 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.22 -- -- 13:31:45 12/06/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.22 -- -- 13:31:45 12/06/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.22 -- -- 13:31:45 12/06/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.22 -- -- 13:31:45 12/06/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 120 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.29 -- -- 10:12:02 12/06/23
Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Dec 06 2023 448.0 Call Limit 9.57 -- -- 10:07:26 12/06/23
Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Dec 06 2023 448.0 Call Limit 9.57 -- -- 10:07:26 12/06/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 6 VALE Dec 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.56 -- -- 09:31:27 12/04/23

[RCKS]

Two more Tweets from CyclesFan looking out longer term on the SPX

For a better visual of what I'm talking about here are the 2 cyclical bull markets in the 1970s that were comprised of 3 waves. The B wave bottomed at the 20 month MA in both cases. pic.twitter.com/f7s0pHqOjS

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) December 2, 2023

[jglider]

With the S.W Pacific under a tsunami warning, some talk I've seen suggests the same for the markets. Then we have "to the moon: talkers. Gesh this traders theme I alerted to almost 2 years ago is becoming like politics in this country. Extremes on both sides and only a few that see the true picture. I'll bet in a couple years it'll get louder and more opinionated just like the swamp in DC. But the louder it gets at some point one side will be right.

Meanwhile traders with a good cycle system along with realizing what is under the hood will continue to enjoy the monthly swings as well as the shorter ones./////////////// Very much like a well tuned race team. It takes more than a good driver or a good car, it's a team effort and those the work together will prosper together. Those that refuse or can't work with others or share ideas much like we see here and on other sites will continue to play for scraps.

The upcoming s/t swings will have many leaning very hard the wrong way that when it sets up another monthly play few will see it coming, much as the past few years have been doing.

About a year and a half ago I was loosing interest in posting as no one else would put any effort in this. A few idiots thought it was no big deal as they were following others that have at best a hit and miss record. They'd ignore my warnings and then say never trade that again due their own stupidity. Rather then further waste my time and bandwidth, for now I'll just wish everyone a Merry X-Mas. until,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[jglider]

S&P 500 close on 11/30/23: 4,567.80
S&P 500 close on 11/30/21: 4,567.00

Still don't think it's a traders market? For almost 2 years I've been pounding the table on this theme.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 3 SPY Dec 06 2023 448.0 Call Market 9.27 -- -- 15:59:49 11/30/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Dec 06 2023 448.0 Call Market 9.22 -- -- 15:59:49 11/30/23
Filled Sell to Close 4 SPY Dec 06 2023 447.0 Call Market 9.44 -- -- 15:52:04 11/30/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.10 -- -- 15:23:45 11/29/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.10 -- -- 15:23:45 11/29/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.10 -- -- 15:23:44 11/29/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.10 -- -- 15:23:44 11/29/23
Filled Buy to Open 3 SPY Dec 06 2023 447.0 Call Limit 8.69 -- -- 15:23:45 11/29/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Dec 06 2023 447.0 Call Limit 8.70 -- -- 15:23:45 11/29/23

[jglider]

One issue with pure cycle work is it doesn't tell you what is going on underneath the hood. The PI's usually keep you out of trouble with the exception of a vst wiggle.

Last weeks action was telling and it was expressed a pullback would keep the show alive. We got a dip early in the week so we move on to our next marker/POI.

Some are confusing the July hi with the all time highs of 481x. Shortly after the all the time in Jan 2022 I said a traders market like few have seen is upon us. Some thought I was nuts and you loonies can just keep thinking that. We'll see who's nuts.

Don't let this distract you from the fact that in 1966, Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, Bubba "Spare Tire" Dixon.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.17 -- -- 09:30:00 11/27/23
Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.17 -- -- 09:30:00 11/27/23

[RCKS]

Here is CyclesFan latest post on the SPX:

$SPX - Despite bullish seasonality next week, there's likely to be a pullback in the next 2 weeks but it may get to 4600 1st. The pullback target may be as low as the 10 week MA. Once the pullback is over it's headed higher into the 1st or 2nd week of January to as high as 4819. pic.twitter.com/m9PnCpW6rL

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 26, 2023

I posted CyclesFan views of AAPL. NVDA and MSFT here

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173298445

[jglider]

Hey rcks, ah ya I got on the board some time back 12 ?? years Been doing this for almost 54 years.

Cycles Fan I'm not familiar with but presents a s/t either/or scenario. I sometimes do this with my gang and have even mentioned here at times we are at a cross roads and I need XX of time to get confirmation of an outlook . A bit like elliot, if this happens than that should follow but for me elliot is pure theory, I like facts but to me the explanation has a valid conclusion..

Cycles tend to get out of wack at times, yet we've found a way to avoid most of those traps with our power indicators. Power indicators tell the true story but they can't be relied on for VST trades. Right now PIs are getting toppy but not exhausted, which usually means the upside is limited until we get a pullback of some degree.

IMO we are near an I/T or weekly top its just when it hits be it a couple days or a week or so is the question, I tend to feel the later, it is the preferred count and would be the final confirmation of what our monthly outlook picture looks like.. If the preferred hits it should be several weeks of sideways to down only to get traction again. Still a traders market from what I'm seeing. I know the kids were hedging issues late last week in anticipation.

Cycles Fan talks of next week as a possible hi. Ya but no later and if long I'd be cautious about playing too deep into those time periods if anything I'm looking at is right, 2 time periods are given which is valid as two indicies are being talked about.

OIL? I bot last Thurs on my lunch break and sold a bit Fri. Need to look at several things but it should be a sector worth looking at again soon. I have not taken the time to go thru it as no one else in my group trades oil. I would think if we get some softness this week it'll be bullish for a few weeks. Sub 70 in Jan? Maybe,, the next 3 weeks should tell us more.

I've got a mess of work in my shop for the winter so trading in not a big deal for me until maybe late Jan. I've not been following things very close the past few weeks. I was concerned about how late Oct looked, so from there I went about my business. The kids continue to swing my account with spooz and they know how to read the system.

Feel free to chime in again.

[RCKS]

jglider

I believe your cycle work goes back to the early days of this board and airedale88 and others

I am wondering if you view CyclesFan work as valid cycle work?
Here is a recent post on SPX and I will post his recent WTi and NDX as well.

$SPX - It looks like the gap at 4422 won't be filled in November. I can still see a pullback to the 10 DMA but the 10 DMA will be inside the gap tomorrow, so an eventual touch of the 10 DMA will probably happen only when its already above the gap. The next top is due on Nov 24-28 pic.twitter.com/hUES4h343c

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 16, 2023

$WTI - As I predicted yesterday, a multi week low is in. From here I expect a bounce to at least the 20 week MA(~83), that will be followed by a decline into the next 23 week cycle low in late January with the target being the 200 week MA(currently 68.29).https://t.co/j8h4zCkl5U pic.twitter.com/BPLMgF88YB

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 17, 2023

$NDX - The window for the next daily cycle high is November 22-28. There are 2 possibilities: 1. keep grinding higher and top in the early part of the window, on Nov 22-24. 2. A pullback to the 10 DMA by Wednesday, then a top in the late part of the window, on Nov 27-28. pic.twitter.com/ERkqyTNv3A

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 17, 2023

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 4 SPY Nov 17 2023 442.0 Call Limit 9.00 -- -- 13:38:50 11/17/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 4 SPY Nov 17 2023 442.0 Call Limit 7.80 -- -- 14:49:32 11/14/23
Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Nov 17 2023 433.0 Call Limit 16.45 -- -- 14:48:41 11/14/23

[jglider]

Had mentioned almost 2 years ago It's about real world data not what is expected or past patterns. But some idiots wanted to fight over it, their loss again.

When the cycles and the power indicators are on the same side of the fence, it's load the boat no brainer trade, until it ain't.

In 2 weeks nearly 3 months of selling disappeared.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 17 2023 433.0 Call Limit 4.25 -- -- 15:04:44 11/09/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 17 2023 433.0 Call Limit 4.25 -- -- 15:04:44 11/09/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 4.16 -- -- 15:03:52 11/09/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 4.16 -- -- 15:03:52 11/09/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 6.79 -- -- 11:01:54 11/06/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 6.79 -- -- 11:01:54 11/06/23

[jglider]

3-4 times a month I do a run around of places that make good contrarian indicators. At times it's so funny it's really a shame.

Permas will never get it. Then there are those that will at times take a bullish stance for a few days, others just scream when the market drops if even just a few days. Perma bulls will be snorting and yelling to the moon near tops, there are some out there I could as a marker not even knowing where we sit in a cycle.

For nearly 2 years I've been saying a traders market like few have ever seen is here and this will remain for a long time, probably longer than most can tolerate.

Being unbiased traders keeps us and those that work with us on the right side with an occasional VST blip. Power indicators never lie, Markers/POIs are seldom wrong if given a 1/2-1 day variance.

So far we have confirmation on our big pic outlook but there is one flaw I've found in the outlook. However, another week or 2 should cement the road map. Those that had contributed know what I mean.

Too bad so many are too lazy to get off their duff and make some serious cash..

[jglider]

We have confirmation, from 2 weeks ago. Oh ya trade trade trade

[jglider]

last set of POIs said it'll get wild.

BINGO

How people trade this without the markers and the power indicators beats me. Oh ya they flounder

[jglider]

if 3/4 of the upcoming POIs are right, holly crap batman hang on, it's gonna be wild. Markers seldom lie.

[jglider]

Jan 21, 2022 I said a traders market like we've not seen for years is upon us.

Still doubt it? Ha this is just getting a good head of steam. Traders will make money mo mo players and permas will continue to get their head handed to them.

[jglider]

had said near the last low the next hi would be another sight, almost a triple top yet many will argue triples seldom work. hmmmmmm

next 2 weeks or so should finish confirming out big pic roadmap for the next several months. watch the POIs if ya' have em'.

[jglider]

early Aug. talked about complacency on both sides, no change seen. Unusual to some but it still fits within the bigger pic of a traders market that was called for in Jan 2022.... When it finally breaks wooooohooooo

POIs still working.

[jglider]

ya the last hi was a sight, when this settles out the next one will be too.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 3 PBR Oct 06 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.25 14:43:31 09/28/23
Filled Sell to Close 11 PBR Sep 29 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.07 14:28:54 09/28/23

[jglider]

the early Aug consolidation in the dollar has paid off, much like oil. Most dont understand how oil and the dollar can go up together but they sometimes do.

[jglider]

near the aug low I said the next hi will be a sight, nice double top.

POIs still cooking with gas

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 11 PBR Sep 29 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.61 12:28:10 09/20/23
Filled Sell to Close 7 PBR Sep 22 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.50 12:21:13 09/20/23
Filled Sell to Close 7 PBR Sep 22 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.50 12:21:13 09/20/23

[jglider]

chart symmetry is still a sight to behold.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 14 PBR Sep 22 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.45 10:03:18 09/14/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.0 Call Limit 1.26 09:52:13 09/14/23
Filled Sell to Close 7 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.5 Call Limit 0.76 09:50:38 09/14/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.83 13:18:27 09/05/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.83 13:18:27 09/05/23
Filled Buy to Open 4 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.5 Call Limit 0.51
Filled Buy to Open 3 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.5 Call Limit 0.50 13:18:27 09/05/23

[jglider]

oil since early May, wow another good EZ money trade, Big pic?, gotta get involved......

[jglider]

old bud sent me this.

without taxes we wont have

roads
defense
police
firemen
coast guard
laws
air control
etc etc
old age security
sewers
clean water
licenses
and
paid gov employees to handle all this

[jglider]

permas getting slammed again, so Ez yet,,,,,,,,,,

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.82 12:53:37 08/23/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.58 12:37:55 08/23/23

Filled Buy to Open 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.58 12:37:55 08/23/23

Filled Sell to Close 2 TALO Sep 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 2.00 12:36:58 08/23/23

[jglider]

talked of chart symmetry a couple days before the last hi. FWIW the hi hit one day later than originally thought. Once this settles out, the next hi will be a sight.

POIs are working for those that have them

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 TALO Sep 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 2.10 13:14:39 08/16/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 10 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.13 13:01:00 08/16/23

Filled Sell to Close 8 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.13 13:01:00 08/16/23

[jglider]

latest ez money play is almost lined up, you're gonna wish you were involved

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 5 AMPY Aug 18 2023 7.5 Call Limit 0.50 12:03:57 08/09/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 3 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.17 12:15:01 08/08/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 TALO Sep 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 2.00 12:07:47 08/08/23
Filled Buy to Open 15 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.18 12:05:50 08/08/23

[BlissBull]

08/07/2023 13:41:18 Bought 15 AMPY Aug 18 2023 7.5 Call @ 0.5
08/07/2023 13:37:50 Sold 1 NOG Aug 18 2023 36.0 Call @ 5.9
08/07/2023 13:30:57 Sold 14 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call @ 0.15

[jglider]

the complacency shown, on both sides is something seldom seen. It does however fit in with a few things we've been discussing. The fast drop again late last week was also fitting with cycles and POIs. It's been fun for traders since Jan 2022 and has a long way to go.

[jglider]

Have said many times, news will fit the cycles. ONO

[jglider]

I still shake my head at the stupidity of how Bye Dumb managed our oil reserves. Pulled out for elections and when prices were modestly hi, but in late April did nothing. We have an arrangement with an oil company that will delver bulk fuels here much like they do for most farms at a discount to pump price. While our farming methods do not require vast amounts of fuel we do use some. Believe me by May 5 all tanks were filled to the top, will hold us into next year. Then when it drops again, we'll re-order again. Bye Dumb has no clue.