Short Term Trading Member Forum

[jglider]

One issue with pure cycle work is it doesn't tell you what is going on underneath the hood. The PI's usually keep you out of trouble with the exception of a vst wiggle.

Last weeks action was telling and it was expressed a pullback would keep the show alive. We got a dip early in the week so we move on to our next marker/POI.

Some are confusing the July hi with the all time highs of 481x. Shortly after the all the time in Jan 2022 I said a traders market like few have seen is upon us. Some thought I was nuts and you loonies can just keep thinking that. We'll see who's nuts.

Don't let this distract you from the fact that in 1966, Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, Bubba "Spare Tire" Dixon.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.17 -- -- 09:30:00 11/27/23
Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Dec 01 2023 446.0 Call Limit 9.17 -- -- 09:30:00 11/27/23

[RCKS]

Here is CyclesFan latest post on the SPX:

$SPX - Despite bullish seasonality next week, there's likely to be a pullback in the next 2 weeks but it may get to 4600 1st. The pullback target may be as low as the 10 week MA. Once the pullback is over it's headed higher into the 1st or 2nd week of January to as high as 4819. pic.twitter.com/m9PnCpW6rL

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 26, 2023

I posted CyclesFan views of AAPL. NVDA and MSFT here

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173298445

[jglider]

Hey rcks, ah ya I got on the board some time back 12 ?? years Been doing this for almost 54 years.

Cycles Fan I'm not familiar with but presents a s/t either/or scenario. I sometimes do this with my gang and have even mentioned here at times we are at a cross roads and I need XX of time to get confirmation of an outlook . A bit like elliot, if this happens than that should follow but for me elliot is pure theory, I like facts but to me the explanation has a valid conclusion..

Cycles tend to get out of wack at times, yet we've found a way to avoid most of those traps with our power indicators. Power indicators tell the true story but they can't be relied on for VST trades. Right now PIs are getting toppy but not exhausted, which usually means the upside is limited until we get a pullback of some degree.

IMO we are near an I/T or weekly top its just when it hits be it a couple days or a week or so is the question, I tend to feel the later, it is the preferred count and would be the final confirmation of what our monthly outlook picture looks like.. If the preferred hits it should be several weeks of sideways to down only to get traction again. Still a traders market from what I'm seeing. I know the kids were hedging issues late last week in anticipation.

Cycles Fan talks of next week as a possible hi. Ya but no later and if long I'd be cautious about playing too deep into those time periods if anything I'm looking at is right, 2 time periods are given which is valid as two indicies are being talked about.

OIL? I bot last Thurs on my lunch break and sold a bit Fri. Need to look at several things but it should be a sector worth looking at again soon. I have not taken the time to go thru it as no one else in my group trades oil. I would think if we get some softness this week it'll be bullish for a few weeks. Sub 70 in Jan? Maybe,, the next 3 weeks should tell us more.

I've got a mess of work in my shop for the winter so trading in not a big deal for me until maybe late Jan. I've not been following things very close the past few weeks. I was concerned about how late Oct looked, so from there I went about my business. The kids continue to swing my account with spooz and they know how to read the system.

Feel free to chime in again.

[RCKS]

jglider

I believe your cycle work goes back to the early days of this board and airedale88 and others

I am wondering if you view CyclesFan work as valid cycle work?
Here is a recent post on SPX and I will post his recent WTi and NDX as well.

$SPX - It looks like the gap at 4422 won't be filled in November. I can still see a pullback to the 10 DMA but the 10 DMA will be inside the gap tomorrow, so an eventual touch of the 10 DMA will probably happen only when its already above the gap. The next top is due on Nov 24-28 pic.twitter.com/hUES4h343c

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 16, 2023

$WTI - As I predicted yesterday, a multi week low is in. From here I expect a bounce to at least the 20 week MA(~83), that will be followed by a decline into the next 23 week cycle low in late January with the target being the 200 week MA(currently 68.29).https://t.co/j8h4zCkl5U pic.twitter.com/BPLMgF88YB

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 17, 2023

$NDX - The window for the next daily cycle high is November 22-28. There are 2 possibilities: 1. keep grinding higher and top in the early part of the window, on Nov 22-24. 2. A pullback to the 10 DMA by Wednesday, then a top in the late part of the window, on Nov 27-28. pic.twitter.com/ERkqyTNv3A

— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) November 17, 2023

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 4 SPY Nov 17 2023 442.0 Call Limit 9.00 -- -- 13:38:50 11/17/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 4 SPY Nov 17 2023 442.0 Call Limit 7.80 -- -- 14:49:32 11/14/23
Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Nov 17 2023 433.0 Call Limit 16.45 -- -- 14:48:41 11/14/23

[jglider]

Had mentioned almost 2 years ago It's about real world data not what is expected or past patterns. But some idiots wanted to fight over it, their loss again.

When the cycles and the power indicators are on the same side of the fence, it's load the boat no brainer trade, until it ain't.

In 2 weeks nearly 3 months of selling disappeared.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 17 2023 433.0 Call Limit 4.25 -- -- 15:04:44 11/09/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 17 2023 433.0 Call Limit 4.25 -- -- 15:04:44 11/09/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 4.16 -- -- 15:03:52 11/09/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 4.16 -- -- 15:03:52 11/09/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 6.79 -- -- 11:01:54 11/06/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 10 2023 430.0 Call Limit 6.79 -- -- 11:01:54 11/06/23

[jglider]

3-4 times a month I do a run around of places that make good contrarian indicators. At times it's so funny it's really a shame.

Permas will never get it. Then there are those that will at times take a bullish stance for a few days, others just scream when the market drops if even just a few days. Perma bulls will be snorting and yelling to the moon near tops, there are some out there I could as a marker not even knowing where we sit in a cycle.

For nearly 2 years I've been saying a traders market like few have ever seen is here and this will remain for a long time, probably longer than most can tolerate.

Being unbiased traders keeps us and those that work with us on the right side with an occasional VST blip. Power indicators never lie, Markers/POIs are seldom wrong if given a 1/2-1 day variance.

So far we have confirmation on our big pic outlook but there is one flaw I've found in the outlook. However, another week or 2 should cement the road map. Those that had contributed know what I mean.

Too bad so many are too lazy to get off their duff and make some serious cash..

[jglider]

We have confirmation, from 2 weeks ago. Oh ya trade trade trade

[jglider]

last set of POIs said it'll get wild.

BINGO

How people trade this without the markers and the power indicators beats me. Oh ya they flounder

[jglider]

if 3/4 of the upcoming POIs are right, holly crap batman hang on, it's gonna be wild. Markers seldom lie.

[jglider]

Jan 21, 2022 I said a traders market like we've not seen for years is upon us.

Still doubt it? Ha this is just getting a good head of steam. Traders will make money mo mo players and permas will continue to get their head handed to them.

[jglider]

had said near the last low the next hi would be another sight, almost a triple top yet many will argue triples seldom work. hmmmmmm

next 2 weeks or so should finish confirming out big pic roadmap for the next several months. watch the POIs if ya' have em'.

[jglider]

early Aug. talked about complacency on both sides, no change seen. Unusual to some but it still fits within the bigger pic of a traders market that was called for in Jan 2022.... When it finally breaks wooooohooooo

POIs still working.

[jglider]

ya the last hi was a sight, when this settles out the next one will be too.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 3 PBR Oct 06 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.25 14:43:31 09/28/23
Filled Sell to Close 11 PBR Sep 29 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.07 14:28:54 09/28/23

[jglider]

the early Aug consolidation in the dollar has paid off, much like oil. Most dont understand how oil and the dollar can go up together but they sometimes do.

[jglider]

near the aug low I said the next hi will be a sight, nice double top.

POIs still cooking with gas

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 11 PBR Sep 29 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.61 12:28:10 09/20/23
Filled Sell to Close 7 PBR Sep 22 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.50 12:21:13 09/20/23
Filled Sell to Close 7 PBR Sep 22 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.50 12:21:13 09/20/23

[jglider]

chart symmetry is still a sight to behold.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 14 PBR Sep 22 2023 15.0 Call Limit 0.45 10:03:18 09/14/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.0 Call Limit 1.26 09:52:13 09/14/23
Filled Sell to Close 7 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.5 Call Limit 0.76 09:50:38 09/14/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.83 13:18:27 09/05/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.83 13:18:27 09/05/23
Filled Buy to Open 4 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.5 Call Limit 0.51
Filled Buy to Open 3 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.5 Call Limit 0.50 13:18:27 09/05/23

[jglider]

oil since early May, wow another good EZ money trade, Big pic?, gotta get involved......

[jglider]

old bud sent me this.

without taxes we wont have

roads
defense
police
firemen
coast guard
laws
air control
etc etc
old age security
sewers
clean water
licenses
and
paid gov employees to handle all this

[jglider]

permas getting slammed again, so Ez yet,,,,,,,,,,

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.82 12:53:37 08/23/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.58 12:37:55 08/23/23

Filled Buy to Open 1 PBR Sep 15 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.58 12:37:55 08/23/23

Filled Sell to Close 2 TALO Sep 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 2.00 12:36:58 08/23/23

[jglider]

talked of chart symmetry a couple days before the last hi. FWIW the hi hit one day later than originally thought. Once this settles out, the next hi will be a sight.

POIs are working for those that have them

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 TALO Sep 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 2.10 13:14:39 08/16/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 10 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.13 13:01:00 08/16/23

Filled Sell to Close 8 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.13 13:01:00 08/16/23

[jglider]

latest ez money play is almost lined up, you're gonna wish you were involved

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 5 AMPY Aug 18 2023 7.5 Call Limit 0.50 12:03:57 08/09/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 3 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.17 12:15:01 08/08/23
Filled Buy to Open 1 TALO Sep 15 2023 15.0 Call Limit 2.00 12:07:47 08/08/23
Filled Buy to Open 15 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.18 12:05:50 08/08/23

[BlissBull]

08/07/2023 13:41:18 Bought 15 AMPY Aug 18 2023 7.5 Call @ 0.5
08/07/2023 13:37:50 Sold 1 NOG Aug 18 2023 36.0 Call @ 5.9
08/07/2023 13:30:57 Sold 14 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call @ 0.15

[jglider]

the complacency shown, on both sides is something seldom seen. It does however fit in with a few things we've been discussing. The fast drop again late last week was also fitting with cycles and POIs. It's been fun for traders since Jan 2022 and has a long way to go.

[jglider]

Have said many times, news will fit the cycles. ONO

[jglider]

I still shake my head at the stupidity of how Bye Dumb managed our oil reserves. Pulled out for elections and when prices were modestly hi, but in late April did nothing. We have an arrangement with an oil company that will delver bulk fuels here much like they do for most farms at a discount to pump price. While our farming methods do not require vast amounts of fuel we do use some. Believe me by May 5 all tanks were filled to the top, will hold us into next year. Then when it drops again, we'll re-order again. Bye Dumb has no clue.

[jglider]

all the stupid excuses why the market tanked late yesterday. Yup chart symmetry works on many time frames and when cycles fit it's a heavy bet. Knowing real world data before it's announced puts the icing on the cake.. Love trading whipsaws when my schedule allows.

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.44 15:08:40 07/25/23

Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.44 15:08:40 07/25/23

Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.44 15:08:40 07/25/23

Filled Sell to Close 2 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.44 15:08:40 07/25/23

Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.44 15:08:40 07/25/23

Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.44 15:08:40 07/25/23

Filled Buy to Open 1 NOG Aug 18 2023 36.0 Call Limit 2.86 15:08:40 07/25/23

[jglider]

Chart symmetry has again come into play, but this time on a multi-month basis. Oh this is so pretty fitting in with cycles and POIs almost to the tic.

```sigh``

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 6 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.43 13:48:51 07/21/23

Filled Buy to Open 1 SWN Aug 18 2023 6.0 Call Limit 0.43 13:48:51 07/21/23

Filled Sell to Close 110 PBR Jul 21 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.03 13:15:39 07/21/23

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 7 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.53 10:42:42 07/21/23

Filled Buy to Open 7 PBR Aug 18 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.53 10:42:42 07/21/23

[jglider]

Last year I was told if I said something you should listen. the very person that said this ignorned most of my warnings and buy points. So if anyone forgot why I got real scarce, well there was part of the reason. Why waste my time?.

Lots of people have got on me for my way of making you think. Trades being placed on a silver platter have not been given for over a year.. If you can't think or are too lazy to do any work, then it's too damn bad.

Got lots of traders hoping for this and hoping for that. Well, you can crap in one hand and wish in the other, guess which gets filled.

Some of the messages I get are hilarious. Some calling for 7K and other for 2.5K in almost the same time frame. Must be more hope.

When you have a cyclical system that WORKS there is no hope. Confirmation brings the next POI into play and the chain continues.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 6 PBR Jul 21 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.13 14:52:14 07/14/23
Filled Buy to Open 9 PBR Jul 21 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.13 14:52:14 07/14/23

[jglider]

Late Dec I said the yearly patterns would change. Case in point, last year March was a big hi, this year a low. Last year mid year low, now up into mid year, think the inverse pattern will last? Hmmmmmm an old saying goes like when everyone knows something only a very few really do.

Cycles still rule,

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 52 PBR Jul 21 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.85 11:22:12 06/15/23
Filled Buy to Open 26 PBR Jul 21 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.85 11:22:12 06/15/23
Filled Buy to Open 16 PBR Jul 21 2023 14.0 Call Limit 0.85 11:22:12 06/15/23
Filled Sell to Close 28 PBR Jul 21 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.46 11:14:31 06/15/23
Filled Sell to Close 27 PBR Jul 21 2023 13.0 Call Limit 1.46 11:14:31 06/15/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Jun 16 2023 5.0 Call Market 0.43 11:11:21 06/15/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Jun 16 2023 5.0 Call Market 0.43 11:11:21 06/15/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Jun 16 2023 5.0 Call Market 0.44 11:11:22 06/15/23
Filled Sell to Close 1 SWN Jun 16 2023 5.0 Call Market 0.43 11:11:21 06/15/23

[jglider]

Late Jan the 401Kers were patting themselves on the back for hanging in there. But had said at that time higher prices were likely. YUP had only a few been more ambitious they would have done well too.

As mentioned a few weeks ago timing of my posts isn't always meaningful. I wont repeat this, got a PM about it. Rain day so I had a few minutes.