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CBBI
Sold my small position in CBBI this morning.
The report wasn't underwhelming. It stunk. Let me tell you why. Deposits are in free fall that is a huge concern for me. Earnings of .54 happened with a big gain on sale of loans in non interest income (Which probably won't happen in q2 to that extent, hence I think that will drop earnings by about .05 or so next quarter). I feel nims will continue to decline. Interest earning asset have been in decline. Loans are in decline. Now they are talking about expaning to the east, what I here even if they are correct, is some startup expenses at first before we see revs. Hence possible higher expenses in the short run. very cheap to tangible book value, but if you think earnings are going to drop from here now possibly by a decent amount over the coming quarters, and your concerned about the huge drop in deposits, drop in loans, drop in interest earnings assets. This doesn't excite me, I've seen plenty of bank reports that excite me more than this. So I decided to take my tiny loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Sweet alert on TPC last week! Congrats on the gain.
PPIH also getting a nice earnings pop over $8. Was tempted to grab some when it opened at $7.30. Should have dang.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/perma-pipe-international-holdings-inc-132600593.html
ULH congrats on that purchase!
PERI
I sold PERI today around $11.80. As I said in my buy post I brought for a trade. I do believe there is a longer-term case for the stock to go higher, but you never turn a trade into investment in my opinion. So I felt momentum slowing hence I sold it. I may reenter at lower prices again for another trade. All is just my opinion, and I oculd always be wrong though.
CUBI CBBI hey SSK, any thoughts on these two bank earnings reports? I have a small position in CUBI, the report looked ok but not great to me. Wondering if there is an area you might buy since its already down a bunch. And on CBBI, earnings were underwhelming.. flip side is its trading wayyyyyyy below tang book.
TPC great call and alert by Nelson. Congrats!
Ditto to KIK on GL.
TPC just sold half at $16.87 up $2.95. I did mention here less than two weeks ago that TPC preannounced very strong earnings and very strong sales (vs the analyst estimate of a decent sized loss and sales 20% below what the were preannouncing) but it was buried at the bottom of a refi 8-k and never pr'd. Earnings turned out less than that estimate but still a strong profit vs the expected loss ... I guess the analyst never saw the 8K. Hope some of you grabbed some ... I started buying at $14, but it kept on going lower... down to the low $13's ... 6% lower than before they gave the new estimate for the qtr.
best.
ULH +14.11 to 47.00 after the blowout earnings ..... I had some bids in to add shares in the mid to high $30's, but the stock opened at $40.55, so none got filled .....
TPC $16.87 + $2.98. Nice one, Nelson. I bought some shares right before the market close yesterday and flipped them after the earnings report was issued. Looks like I left some cash on the table!
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425223754/en/Tutor-Perini-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Results
FEIM thx again great to see. Small buy but for a guy that already has millions invested.
I generally feel good about the upcoming quarter, and think they will have margin tailwinds rather than headwinds.
You seem to be referring to actual reported earnings .... I'm referring to analyst EPS estimates. Schwab provides only the current estimate and not historical estimates. For example, for AAOI, Schwab shows the Q1 expected EPS as (0.29). I'd like to know what that estimate was 3 and 6 months ago. I'd like to know how the estimate has been trending.
Unless I'm not looking in the right place, Schwab shows NO historic estimates.
Ameritrade has earnings estimate trends going back 4 years on a weekly basis depicted in chart form.
Schwab only goes back to 21 quarterly or annual
SSK - Schwab earnings estimates trend ..... in 2 weeks my Ameritrade account is moving to Schwab. I'm checking out the website now. It seems to me that Ameritrade has more stock research features.
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Or am I not looking in the right place ?
What happens in after hours had a
reversal yesterday...
so we watch...LJ
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/25/24)
Daily Performance
-0.77%
YTD Performance
+0.66%
Overall Performance
+475.08% (Including Options Trading +339.06%)
GOOG + 13% after hour. Its cloud revenue grows faster than MSFT
Arbitrage is the strategy I use to reduce cost from time to time. But many times it backfired for me.
ULH (32.89) posts very strong Q1 earnings. EPS of $1.99 was up 91% y/y and crushed estimates for $0.73. Other trucking companies like JBHT and KNX have been missing estimates, but ULH's logistics business is on fire and more than offset weak results in their other trucking segments.
PR -
In the contract logistics segment, which includes our value-added and dedicated services, first quarter 2024 operating revenues increased 48.4% to $313.5 million, compared to $211.3 million for the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter 2024, we managed 71 value-added programs, including a recent contract logistics award that ramped-up in the first quarter and is expected to be complete by the end of 2024. This compares to 65 programs at the end of the first quarter 2023.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-logistics-holdings-reports-first-203000760.html
SSKMP Trades
Sell 250 Shares of BMY
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
IART
I mean obviously the market thinks it is gonna be bad. Even I'm starting to get suprised that it is dropping this much, I thought it would hang out in the low to mid 30's when i brought it, obviously I was wrong. Obviously I think so much bad news is priced in, I would not want to see what they would have to report in terms of the numbers, guidance, Boston, etc. to drive the stock lower at this point. It has been an unmitgated disaster since I purchased this one. Obviously don't think this quarters numbers are the thing that will move the stock. News on boston and the future will. I continue to believe this is a FY 25 Growth story, with getting to growth in 2nd half of fy 24. I could be completely wrong, I have been so far. I think it is gonna take alot of bad news to push it lower at this point, but anything is possible. Having said that I still believe in the IART Story, will I be proven wrong? That is always possible. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SMCI & NVDA- Just bet on the stock that is lower !
Whenever NVDA is higher than SMCI, bet on SMCI to go up. Whenever NVDA is lower than SMCI, bet on NVDA to go up ! That is the pattern now.
SS- IART
How bad could it be on May 6 ? I mean, what do you think the bottom for the stock would be if the Boston Factory has bad news ie it will take another 3-6 months to get it on line ?
Another small insider buy on FEIM. Same director. A few more shares, and a few days later. Bodes well for fiscal Q4. Maybe not a blowout quarter, but I think the chances of another big miss like they had in Q3 are very minimal.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/39020/000118518524000429/xslF345X05/ownership.xml
GOLD/Copper Developer Ready To Rally; https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ESM.TO/overview
trades on the OTC as well
AAOI -.38 to 10.47, might be a 2nd half story (of this year) if the Microsoft contract ramps up .... so if AAOI drops to $8 after disappointing Q1 earnings, I'll get interested, but consider it speculative. Now at $10, a lot of pessimism is priced in.
IART($27.40)- I just bought in Wadegarret @ $27.67
I just hope they aren't going bankrupt !
R59- AAOI, good points
I was a bit mixed up, as I thought analysts were raising targets, not lowering.
Wade - AAOI - you're getting years mixed up. Six months ago analysts were estimating EPS of $0.41 for FY24. Their estimates have come DOWN sharply since then, not doubled. For FY24 they are now estimating EPS of (0.09), a loss. FY25 estimates were recently introduced and are $0.87, but that's a long way off and highly uncertain.
Hweb- AAOI
The hope is that MSFT will give AAOI more business than they can handle, as there has been recent news that they expect to keep increasing their data centers. MSFT is AAOIs major customer, and they just gave AAOI a $300M contract. Then again, it was a very disappointing qtr in Q4, and I may decide to sell for now, and make sure things are looking better in guidance for Q2
IART($27.30)- down another 7% ?
I don't get this one. How bad could the news be on May 6 ? The company has been cut by 65% in 3 years, and it's persistent. In the meantime, eps could end up to be at $3+ for fiscal 2024, even without the Boston Factory. This stock is acting like the company may not make it !
AAOI is about to report Q1 results on 5/9. They're on a normal fiscal year. So you're not looking for earnings of .90 for the next 4 quarters? But the 4 quarters after that? Didn't seem to be what you were saying in your post. Hope it works out, but I wouldn't put much faith in a supposed earnings surge in 2025.
INDV (17.45 -1.37) lays an egg for its Q1 report. They missed eps expectations by 0.04, coming at an adj fd eps of 0.37. The year ago quarter was a tough comp in that they had their best margins of the year along with a lower tax rate. They cited several factors for the shortfall: 1) Medicaid disenrollment of approx 20MM patients (70% of their patient population is on Medicaid). This had already been going on prior to this quarter, but it accelerated unexpectedly; 2) A Cyber attack on a payment provider that cost them about 5-7MM from destocking impacts. They reiterated guidance for rev and operating profits for the year, and will be continuing to buy back stock. The guidance assumes that the quarter's numbers were an aberration, and that by Q3 they will have anniversaried the Medicaid disenrollment issue. They also hope to have a primary listing on the US by this summer, so no more 6K filings.
I took down my expectations for the year, but still think there is some decent upside here. It may languish in the 17s or even the 16s for a while, but I still think it could be hitting 52 week highs by year end IF they can get back on track in the 2H. My best guess for FD eps is 1.82 - 1.96, which is a healthy rise over last year's 1.57. FV is still likely in the high 20s, IMO so I'm not selling here.
How do you figure AAOI is going to earn .90 over the next year? Analysts are expecting a loss of (.09) for 2024. And then earnings of .87 for 2025. So I guess you're talking about 2025?
BMY
Sold BMY Today around $47.70 premarket. Just came away completely unimpressed. Could of just been me, but I think the stock is flat to slightly negative money in the coming months. Hence I decided to sell as there were plenty of more impressive reports I've seen the last couple of days out there than this. So I decided to take a small loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
CLMB...Climb Channel Solutions Launches Partnership with Automox, Providing Leading Endpoint Management Solution to North American Partners
EATONTOWN, N.J., April 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Climb Channel Solutions, an international specialty technology distributor and wholly owned subsidiary of Climb Global Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMB), announced the launch of a new partnership with Automox, a leading cloud-native IT automation endpoint management solution, now available to their North American partners.
With the addition of Automox, Climb partners can provide customers the capabilities to save time, eliminate risk, and automate the patching, configuration, and control of all Windows, macOS, and Linux endpoints with one modern IT operations platform. Adding Climb as a distributor is a strategic move for Automox as they expand their channel efforts with the goal of switching to over 50% of business via the channel.
Cooper Herrera, Manager of Channel Sales at Automox, said, “We're proud and excited to partner with Climb Channel Solutions. As the leading cloud-native IT automation endpoint management solution, Automox fits perfectly in Climb's stack of business-critical technologies. Thousands of solution providers, VARs, systems integrators, corporate resellers, and consultants now have access to cloud-native IT automation at scale.”
Automox partners with industry-leading companies to extend the sales reach for Automox's cloud-native IT operations platform. Their dedicated channel team is focused on helping resellers sell across a wide range of market segments, from small-to-medium sized businesses (SMBs) to large, multi-location corporate enterprises - and across all vertical markets.
“We are excited about the addition of Automox to our North American line cards,” says Dale Foster, CEO of Climb Channel Solutions. “It is important to us to continue to bring on leading emerging technology for our partners to satisfy the need of their customers. As automation becomes a focus for tech industry, signing vendors, such as Automox, helps us ensure our partner ecosystem is enabled with the best of the best.”
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/25/2869486/0/en/Climb-Channel-Solutions-Launches-Partnership-with-Automox-Providing-Leading-Endpoint-Management-Solution-to-North-American-Partners.html
NVDA, Tsla expressed plans to buy up
to 50,000 more H100 chips...
around 7:20 in video starts the
Tsla auto and chip review...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/24/tesla-just-shared-some-great-news-for-nvidia-stock/
Meta already buys H100 chips from
NVDA according to video author,
and Meta plans to spend bigger on
Ai in latest updates...
NVDA CEO delivered first DGX H200
Ai chip to a customer today...
https://venturebeat.com/ai/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-personally-delivers-first-dgx-h200-to-openai/
NVDA stock price on Wednesday
was tweaked lower to hail the intro
of the new product...perhaps...
So we watch...LJ
Looks crooked, Tsla losing in China market
and on gauge items and got
pumped up 12%...
Other companies better able to
compete with China and still showing
good gauge items are getting dropped...
Peon thesis is that you add if you
think something is worth it, and it can
be done without watching TV heads with
scripts written by big money influence
because they want folks shares cheaper...
Still need to catch that one meme picked
by the crowd to beat the negativity bias..
Any good board ideas?...
So we watch...LJ
RUN option premiums are hefty ahead of earnings due out on May 8th, but taper after that .... so lots of volatility is expected ahead of the report. But they're losing lots of money so I'll be on the sidelines.
I do own one solar stock, ENPH, and have been writing covered calls on it and rolling them over weekly. Nice premiums ! And the company is profitable. It's not a cheap stock, but the company has strong long term growth potential.
R59- META, yes & I just bought AAOI
at around $11 today ! The semi stocks are also down after hours, so what chance does any tech stock have tomorrow ! I looked at AAOI, and do find it attractive around $10-$11, as MSFT has said they are planning on even more data centers. Thing is with AAOI is, analysts feel they will post around $.90 over the next year, which is over twice as high as six months ago. IMO this all has to do with the analysts feeling that MSFT will give AAOI all the business they can handle. However I have a feeling AAOI will go down to around $10 or lower before earnings on May 9. I do feel AAOI is a strong hold into earnings at around $10-$11, and I will likely hold.
I'm also tempted to hold IART into earnings on May 6, if the stock is in the $28s or lower the day before.
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/24/24)
Daily Performance
+0.26%
YTD Performance
+1.44%
Overall Performance
+478.47% (Including Options Trading +342.45%)
META down 12% after hours ..... they beat guidance but evidently investors don't like the increased expense and capex guidance - shows how vulnerable these Mag 7 stocks are to a selloff when earnings disappoint in one way or another. This may drag the broader market lower tomorrow. S&P futures are currently down 0.5%.
RUN 10.02 - one of the badly beat-up solar sector stocks. Just bought at $10.02 and sold the $10May3rd call at .62. This transaction equates to roughly 20% per month...what I'm seeking?
Your "those who want to make 1000% return" equates to jibberish imho...
T
I thought the quarter was solid in all the important areas. The plan to get debt down is continuing well. They beat there adjusted eps number. FCF was healthy well on there way in my opinion to hitting the top end if not exceeding FCF targets. Additions on wireless and broadband also healthy. My opinion of T remains unchanged, which mean I'm still pretty positive on it. Just thought I would mention what I thought about the quarter. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
AAOI- Nibbling @ $11
I think the stock could go to $10, but that's about it before earnings on May 9. MSFT, their largest customer, keeps adding to their supply of data centers. I believe that AAOI could still make $1 going forward 4 quarters, despite the weak Q1 to come. I just don't think it's over for AAOI just yet, and hopefully they come to life again with strong Q2 guidance.
Personally I think the best way to evaluate articles on seeking alpha is to cross check the author against tipranks.com to get a feel for their track record. There are authors with good records and terrible records much like more mainstream sites.
Decent summary of the housing situation thanks. I also think this introduced inefficiency in the economy. Relocation that would normally make sense isn’t happening so there is likely an increased geographic mismatch between labor and job location that would normally be reconciled.
re GL: obviously the easy money has been made; there's some really nasty stuff in the short report so I'd stay away...JMHO
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