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KIK- GL
You obviously were swayed by the short report. What's your take presently ? thanks
Ooh thanks on IMMR. Hadn't seen that. And don't like it one bit. Looks like another Singer fiasco. Still think IMMR could pop on the big EPS next month, but won't buy too many now.
MHO stock up 4% on an 82c beat in eps. New contracts were also up 17% which bodes well for future quarters too. Another home builder, PHM had also reported strong results yesterday. I opened a position in FOR after a recent discussion of it on this board . This is a land development company that sells most of its lots to DHI. FOR sells about 90% of its lots to DHI, the rest to other builders.. That amounts to about 15% of DHI's lots but they want to get that over 30%. That would double FOR sales, and presumably profits. Many builders are pursuing a land light approach, buying ready to go lots from others rather than developing their own. Another builder, NVR, pioneered this approach over 30 years ago and has been very successful. 30 years ago, NVR sold for $6/ share, today it is over $7,000/share!
And the stock actually dropped below $40/share after my post before rebounding 100%! Wish I'd taken my own advice...grrr
SS, PERI($11.60).- I think the bounce may be over
I was thinking about the $9 cash/share. However I think PERI may only receive a 6-7 PE now on eps estimates of around $1.50 on Yahoo, especially with the MSFT contract expiring in Dec coming. Just too much uncertainty about the future of PERI in general
IMMR 7.15 - what's your take on this recent Barnes & Noble undertaking?
https://capedge.com/filing/1058811/0001213900-24-033529/IMMR-8K
I don't get it, neither the substance or the why?
GL $79.00 + $3.24 Anyone who bought around $58.75 could have accumulated a king's ransom! Some pretty positive analyst commentary this morning:
Globe Life shares pricing in 'relatively onerous outcome,' says JPMorgan
TheFlyontheWall.com - Apr 24 07:11 EDT
JPMorgan analyst Jimmy Bhullar believes Globe Life is among the most compelling stocks in the insurance sector, and one that "presents esoteric risk/upside that is not correlated with macro or sector-specific trends." Although there is downside risk to shares if the recent allegations are proven true, the stock price is already discounting a "relatively onerous outcome, even following its recent recovery," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the significant recent volatility in Globe Life shares affirms its view that the stock price is being driven more by fear and technical factors than a fundamental analysis of the economic value of the business under reasonable positive or negative scenarios. It believes management addressed concerns about the most serious allegations - the Renee Zinsky lawsuit and accusations of kickbacks - and provided its justification for not including the Department of Justice inquiry in the annual filing. JPMorgan keeps an Overweight rating on the shares with a $136 price target.
Rebought a few IMMR ahead of the Q1 report next month. Should be a solid comp. Plus they'll recognize that $17.5M from Meta. Which will give them a huge headline earnings number. One-timer sure, but I think it'll cause some kind of spike. I'll be accumulating.
Musk said yesterday "If you've not tried the FSD 12.3, and like I said, 12.4 is going to be significantly better and 12.5 even better than that. And we have visibility into those things. Then you really don't understand what's going on.
It's not possible."
GERN- Can the FDA be bought off ?
FDA said they don't think there is much efficacy for GERNs drug Imtelstat. In addition, they don't think the risk of the side effects(specifically Cytopenias and Nuertopenias) are worth the benefit the drug gives to so few. The Advisory Committee told the FDA on March 14 that there is huge efficacy for Imetelstat, and it met primary and secondary end points in phase 3. They also said the side effect of Cytopenias can be well managed, and the beneifts of the drug far outweigh the risks. They said that around 40% of the patients taking the drug have much improved lives, and are either totally transfusion independent or take far fewer transfusions, even after e year. They said overall hemoglobin levels are much higher for these 40%, and patients just feel much better. They said that being there is just about no treatment for these patients that have MDS(a deadly anemia), the Imetelstat is an option well worth taking, despite the fact that 60% were non respondent, and had to endure side effects while on the drug.
My fear is that there was no logical reason for the FDA to have been so negative in light of a 12 to 2 vote as a suggestion to the FDA to approve the drug. I am concerned that big pharma was swaying their view on Imetelstat, and that if they still are, that FDA approval may not be given on June 16, despite that fact that 97% of time the Advisory Board has a major consensus, the drug gets approved.
DRCT - The analyst at Noble is a shade too optimistic in my opinion with all the latest revelations. If I was an analyst covering this company, my call would be: Abandon Ship!
Hweb- DRCT, I still think a scam
Wonder if they've been bullish on DRCT since the $30's? Many posters on this board thought there was something scammy about this one.
DRCT - Noble says Direct Digital news may cause 'anxiety,' but resolution looks near
TheFlyontheWall.com - Apr 24 08:32 EDT
Noble Capital analyst Michael Kupinski notes that Direct Digital was not able to file its 10-K on time, and, subsequently, received a notification of non-compliance from Nasdaq, adding that the company also disclosed that Marcum is terminating its relationship with the company, citing its inability to verify the company's impressions data. The firm, which expects the company to sign a top 10 US accounting firm within the 30-day Nasdaq window and thinks the audit should be able to ramp quickly, does not anticipate a significant restatement of 2023 financial results. The firm, which is maintaining a Market Perform rating on the shares "for now," thinks the recent news "may cause some anxiety for investors," but believes that "a resolution appears to be near."
TSLA I am still not a big fan of TSLA here. My guess is she will probably fall back again. But I certainly don't have the cajones to short. I do think over the short/mid term, TSLA will become more and more valued as an automobile company. And my guess is also that '25 estimates are still a bit too high (even though they dropped from $8 to $3.41 over the past six months or so).
But then again, I could most definitely be 100% wrong.
best.
Value, now that would explain Wadegarret portfolio
2.4 year gains of 260% !
Do not waste time in reading them, as the damage (the time you waste and bad idea you get) may out weigh the benefit (occasionally you get a good idea)
TSLA up 11+% after hour: Musk has been back into crisis mode (meaning productive) and next 3 years will be crucial!
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/23/24)
Daily Performance
+0.49%
YTD Performance
+1.18%
Overall Performance
+477.33% (Including Options Trading +341.31%)
DRCT - that sounds very scammy !
DRCT - Things got even uglier. According to their NT10-K filing, they were going to file it on or before April 17. Today they issued an 8-K stating that their auditor resigned on April 17. This from the 8-K:
SSKMP Trades
Sell 500 Shares of RCMT
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
R59, Ok,
thanks
Most seeking alpha articles are free ..... signup for a free account.
Just like iHub, a Seeking Alpha subscription is well worth it. Think SA runs about $260/year. But it's tax deductible if you're a full-time trader. And one decent trade idea...and it'll more than pay for itself.
R59- SMCI, I can't read the article
It's making me sign up to read
GM +2.18 to 45.39 after a big earnings beat and raised guidance. Forward PE is a mere 4.8
briefing -
General Motors beats by $0.49, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and EBIT guidance (43.21 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.49 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.13; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $43.01 bln vs the $41.09 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY24, sees EPS of 9.00-10.00 from $8.50-9.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $8.89 FactSet Consensus. Co also raised FY24 adjusted EBIT to $12.5 billion - $14.5 billion from $12.0 billion - $14.0 billion prior guidance.
SMCI +37 to 754, here's a bullish article -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685274-super-micro-computer-stock-plunges-what-to-expect-q3-earnings
PERI
Well first of all I brought it for a trade, said so in my buy post. A trade means I'm not thinking long-term here (Notice the word trade in my buy post). Part of my reasoning is that it was oversold hence waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overdue to bounce. It is bouncing. #2 MSFT with this rate cut makes me believe they will be more willing to sign a new deal with PERI because heck they squeezed more profit out of them, and less profit for peri. Could be wrong on that. #3 MSFT with the rate cut is substancially less of the PERI Business than 34% if we are to assume this rev short fall is thanks to just MSFT, that the msft news has become far less important, because my gut is revs from MSFT are now somewhere between 10-15% of total sales if that. But let me go back to #1 for a second I brought it for a trade. hence that should be irrelevant in my decision. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
PERI +.45 to 11.32, what about the Microsoft deal that expires on 12/31/24 ? Are you confident it will be renewed or is it too far out to be concerned at this point ? In any case with the Microsoft pricing cuts, it represents a lower percentage of total revenues.
20F -
We are highly dependent on our search services agreement with Microsoft Irelands Operations Limited. (“Microsoft”). We entered into our first agreement with Microsoft in 2010. In November 2020, we entered into a renewed agreement with Microsoft effective as of January 1, 2021 and in effect until December 31, 2024 (the “Microsoft Agreement”). In 2022, our search advertising business Unit, CodeFuel, was named by Microsoft Advertising the “Global Supply Partner of the Year”. The Microsoft Agreement accounted for 37%, 35% and 34% of our revenue, in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Hweb- GERN
Like to get your opinion on whether the FDA can be bought. I mean, I wonder how often the FDA comes out days before the all important Advisory Committee meeting, and ditches a stock. That's exactly what they did with Geron. Here is the scathing report the FDA had just two days before the ADCOM meeting on march 14(which ended up in favor or approval with a 12 to 2 vote)...
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-fda-staff-flags-concerns-about-gerons-anemia-treatment-2024-03-12/
My concern is, the FDA was somehow pressured by big pharma to come out with this scathing report. I mean how in the world could the ADCOM have such a strongly opposite opinion on GERNs drug Imetelstat than the FDA had ? Bottom line is, if in fact the FDA was swayed by big pharma to write the scathing report just two days before the ADCOM meeting, then why isn't it possible that the FDA will continue to be swayed by big pharma, and NOT give GERNs drug approval on June 16 ?
She might fall below 600, but more likely than not, she will rise until next week's earning report (possibly recover all the loss last Friday). Afterwards, it depends on its earning report and guidance, and only God knows.
RCMT
Sold my small position today around $19. Didn't like the shelf offering, might be nothing. But still I liked the stock didn't love it, hence the small position, and when this happened it just made me want to take the small loss and sell the stock. Maybe I'm wrong. But I decided to sell it. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Thanks nice rebound on SMCI today. Wish I'd bought a lot more now. But even with the slide last week, the stock was still up huge from a few months ago...so not the easiest one to buy.
Already flipped my shares. Too soon of course. This one could be pushing $1000 again in a couple weeks. Or back down in the $600's (or worse). Too volatile for me...felt myself watching it all day...and getting little else done ha
Congratulation on your buying SMCI at great price. The great time may be yet to come.
'The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
The US is officially the largest oil producer in the world, and it's not even close.
Currently, the US is producing 12.9 million barrels per day of crude oil.
This is nearly 30% more than the 10.1 million barrels per day that Russia produces and 33% more than Saudi Arabia.'
In fact, the US alone pumps 45% of the output produced by the entire OPEC combined.
Furthermore, the US now produces nearly 4 TIMES as much oil as Brazil.
Truly remarkable.'
AMD, NVDA, SMCI,,,oh no, Mr. Bill!,,,
AMD didn't give any guidance in
their earning's date release...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-report-fiscal-first-quarter-201500323.html
Yahoo Press Release tab instead of
All tab helps Quick Check for actual
company news releases,,,
whew, it makes a difference...Eureka...
So we watch...LJ
PYYX - I've got some. Busy with some other stuff today and didn't even notice the action. Like you, I've been encouraged by the company's progress and surprised by the big volume to the downside. Not aware of any issues. Hopefully, just somebody needed to sell for other personal reasons.
RCMT files $100M shelf offering -
If and when they use it in part or full remains to be seen, but the potential is there.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/700841/000110465924050091/tm2410069-5_s3a.htm
SS- PERI, good points about the cash
I will look further.
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/22/24)
Daily Performance
+0.12%
YTD Performance
+0.69%
Overall Performance
+475.21% (Including Options Trading +339.19%)
PERI
I get what your saying about your PE conversation and for the most part, I agree with PE expand when things are going very well, and pe's contract when growth look limited or negative in general.
I like IART A lot, but this is not a comp for me between PERI and IART. I can own both. I own 19 common stocks at the moment. Obviously I like some more than others, and I would not say PERI will be making the top of my list either, but I like it more than enough to own it at this point.
The thing your not valuing here is the cash on the balance sheet. PERI has $9.36 in cash on the balance sheet. This isn't a biotech whose drug fell apart in phase 2 and they have no revs let alone earnings and cash flows coming anytime soon. The guidance implies about $1.60 run rate annually on EPS. But here's the thing Right now the company is litterally trading at about $1.50 ex cash, that will earn about $1.60 from here, and probably start to grow again in fy 25, after this transition to lower rates gets comp. So essentially you are paying less than 1 times ex cash which is unheard of for a company. It is not just cheap it is absurdly cheap thanks to the huge cash position on the balance sheet. Anyways just my take. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SS- PERI
Yes it appears cheap. However PEs expand when things are going well, and contract when things are going bad. In fact, during periods of strong growth, there's no way to know how much higher the PE will go. SMCI sold for a 8-10 PE for years, and now with AI, sells for a 25-30 PE. So PEs can expand or contract by multiples, and during the height of the up/down growth cycles, it's especially hard to know how to value. PERI is cheap right now compared to the past, but who knows what PE it will now receive. For me, I don't see any growth story in tact for PERI right now, and therefore, I could see where a 7-8 PE going forward might be all it gets. I like a story like IART better, as they've been demolished, are selling at less than half their normal PE, and could be a comeback growth story yet, where the PE expands again.
PYYX - who is still in this? I like the long-term prospects with the debt situation starting to improve. Surprised to see that 200k volume there today.
I have not sold any so I could not buy back any TSLA. I indeed bought back more SMCI at great price this morning. One rule I always follow is diversification, as no one could predict market.
SSKMP Trades
Buy 1,000 Shares of PERI
Buy 300 Shares of VZ
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
CCEL--There was a notable item in the recent quarterly report which disclosed the Company has recently bought back approximately 175,000 shares after not buying back shares for years. This buying dovetails with their announcement for seeking a buyer for their legacy business and after spinning the Duke assets out to SHs in a separate company. The two CEOs are the largest SHs to me this is a bullish sign that they're confident they have a buyer lined up at a good premium to the current share price as the Company has been on the buy side of most of the volume since they announced exploring strategic alternatives. I think this is a good event driven play.
PERI(11.11)
Thanks for the timely alert !
Here's an interesting article about the current unique mortgage rate situation. Lots of folks are reluctant move and lock in a 3% higher rate - there's never before been such a broad discrepancy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/upshot/mortgage-rates-homes-stuck.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mE0.AH1H.igk4pgTHMiev&smid=url-share
Back in IART @ $29.10
Sold at $31.90, so back in cheaper after the delayed report announcement. I can't see this company being worth much less than this. I mean the news would have to be really bad to send the stock much lower !
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