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SBOW looks like a strong quarter .... adj EPS of $2.09 beat analyst estimates for $1.58. Free cash flow was strong allowing a pay down of debt. The derivative loss was expected since crude oil prices rose from $72 at year end to $83 on 3/31/24, hence the mark to market writedown of their future period hedging position.
The big wildcard remains oil prices which have been falling recently -
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Plummet-3-on-US-Inventory-Build-Inflation.html
AYSI/KIK: Nope
My last interaction with their phone "support" didn't leave me with any confidence in their competence nor any desire to waste more time.
I infer from your post that your email went nowhere either.
SBOW...Earnings are out. I'm not an o&g expert, but at first glance, the report looks good...
(adj EPS $2.09)
SilverBow Resources Announces First Quarter 2024 Financial and Operating Results
Results top consensus expectations driven by higher production and lower capital expenditures generating record quarterly EBITDA and strong quarterly free cash flow
Total debt reduced by $178 million since closing its South Texas acquisition in late 20231; First quarter 2024 leverage ratio of 1.35x2 lower than pre-acquisition announcement
Year-to-date outperformance leads to increase in full-year production expectations and free cash flow outlook
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/silverbow-resources-SBOW/stock-news/93762382/silverbow-resources-announces-first-quarter-2024-f
SSKMP Trades
Buy 125 Shares of GPN
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
Market Commentary -
briefing -
Going into Fed Chair Powell's press conference, the market was nervous about the possibility of Fed Chair Powell sounding more hawkish than he did at the March FOMC press conference. The key thought around that nervous feeling was that Fed Chair Powell would connote the notion that it is increasingly possible that the Fed will elect to raise rates further.
He said (and we quote): "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I would say it's unlikely."
The fact that the stock market and the Treasury market rallied initially on that acknowledgment should come as no surprise. It was (relief) music to their ears.
From our vantage point, Fed Chair Powell worked hard to shoot down the prospect of another rate hike, sticking instead to the view that the Fed will stick with its current policy stance as long as it is appropriate and that a path to cutting rates would follow inflation moving sustainably towards the Fed's 2% target or an unexpected weakening in the labor market.
Fed Chair Powell clarified that a couple of tenths higher in the unemployment rate itself would probably not qualify as a meaningful weakening in the labor market.
By and large, the Fed seems stuck with its current policy stance, which is a byproduct of economic data for a data-dependent Fed that has occasionally run hot, has oftentimes run warm, and has rarely turned cold. Accordingly, it keeps the Fed guessing like the rest of us if the policy stance is truly appropriate or will be revealed in hindsight to be too restrictive or not restrictive enough.
The Fed Chair is convinced that the evidence shows pretty clearly that policy is restrictive and is weighing on demand; however, gaining greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2%, he said, will take longer than previously expected.
So, the market is stuck with the uncertainty of how long the current policy rate will be in effect, which means it will be stuck with higher rates for longer as an uncertain Fed tries to understand if it has done enough, or needs to do more, to get inflation back to 2%.
The Russell 2000 is up 1.5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.7%; the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.5%; and the S&P 500 is up 0.2%.
Hey manjb, have you called the AYSI people again since this post? Have you heard when/if the $$ will hit our accounts? TIA
Hope you got some already? I bought back 90% short term SMCI shares at 742, 730, 720 and 710. Additional 10% at 700 has not been filled! This is the company which is so well managed that it has not had one loss years since its IPO!
GPN
Added more today at $109.45. Obviously my entry point for starters wasn't great to say the least. But as I said I was going to do add more on weakness. Down over $5 from my initial Purchase Price qualifies as weakness. So I added more. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SBOW...Nice comparison.
SBOW - here's the stock price history compared to crude oil .... they do a lot of hedging so may fetch above or below market prices in any given quarter -
Date SBOW Oil
20230103 24.99 76.93
20230104 25.84 72.84
20230105 25.92 73.67
20230106 26.17 73.77
20230109 26.51 74.63
20230110 26.28 75.12
20230111 26.01 77.41
20230112 27.54 78.39
20230113 27.37 79.86
20230117 27.85 80.45
20230118 26.4 79.8
20230119 27.01 80.61
20230120 26.74 81.64
20230123 27.56 81.62
20230124 26.17 80.13
20230125 26.54 80.15
20230126 26.76 81.01
20230127 26.68 79.68
20230130 25.26 77.9
20230131 26.27 78.87
20230201 25.09 76.41
20230202 24.73 75.88
20230203 24.37 73.39
20230206 23.48 74.11
20230207 24.75 77.14
20230208 23.98 78.47
20230209 23.24 78.06
20230210 25.42 79.72
20230213 25.46 80.14
20230214 25.83 79.06
20230215 25.64 78.83
20230216 25.52 78.74
20230217 23.77 76.55
20230221 22.64 76.36
20230222 22.88 73.95
20230223 23.51 75.39
20230224 24.84 76.32
20230227 24.94 75.68
20230228 24.62 77.05
20230301 25.45 77.69
20230302 28.86 78.16
20230303 29.38 79.68
20230306 27.3 80.46
20230307 26.15 77.58
20230308 25.92 76.66
20230309 24.82 75.72
20230310 23.63 76.68
20230313 22.59 74.8
20230314 22.42 71.33
20230315 21.61 67.74
20230316 21.88 68.52
20230317 20.98 66.93
20230320 21 67.82
20230321 21.84 69.67
20230322 20.49 70.9
20230323 20.31 69.96
20230324 20.57 69.26
20230327 22.21 72.81
20230328 22.26 73.2
20230329 22.25 72.97
20230330 22.17 74.37
20230331 22.85 75.67
20230403 24.35 80.42
20230404 23.85 80.71
20230405 24.13 80.61
20230406 23.36 80.7
20230410 23.8 79.74
20230411 25.58 81.53
20230412 25.55 83.26
20230413 25.51 82.16
20230414 25.21 82.52
20230417 24.63 80.83
20230418 24.44 80.9
20230419 24.01 79.24
20230420 23.13 77.37
20230421 23.02 77.87
20230424 24.17 78.76
20230425 22.84 77.07
20230426 22.15 74.3
20230427 22.44 74.76
20230428 23.85 76.78
20230501 23.57 75.66
20230502 21.95 71.66
20230503 21.91 68.6
20230504 21.85 68.56
20230505 22.6 71.34
20230508 22.63 73.16
20230509 23.09 73.71
20230510 22.99 72.56
20230511 22.93 70.87
20230512 23.62 70.04
20230515 24.14 71.09
20230516 23.17 70.84
20230517 24.11 72.89
20230518 24.81 71.94
20230519 24.38 71.69
20230522 25.12 72.05
20230523 25.17 72.91
20230524 25.06 74.34
20230525 23.99 71.83
20230526 23.57 72.67
20230530 23.33 69.46
20230531 23.88 68.09
20230601 24.03 70.1
20230602 25.79 71.74
20230605 25.27 72.15
20230606 26.3 71.74
20230607 27 72.53
20230608 26.93 71.29
20230609 26.74 70.17
20230612 25.85 67.12
20230613 26.63 69.42
20230614 26.11 68.27
20230615 26.73 70.81
20230616 27.13 71.93
20230620 26.65 71.19
20230621 27.09 72.53
20230622 26.42 69.51
20230623 25.45 69.16
20230626 26.55 69.37
20230627 27.1 67.7
20230628 28.51 69.56
20230629 28.95 69.86
20230630 29.12 70.64
20230703 28.95 69.79
20230705 28.33 71.79
20230706 27.27 71.8
20230707 29.06 73.86
20230710 29.71 72.99
20230711 31.05 74.83
20230712 30.86 75.75
20230713 31.04 76.89
20230714 29.29 75.42
20230717 29.65 74.08
20230718 31.3 75.66
20230719 31.05 75.29
20230720 31.31 75.65
20230721 31.82 77.07
20230724 32.58 78.74
20230725 33.54 79.63
20230726 33.71 78.78
20230727 33.63 80.09
20230728 34.83 80.58
20230731 35.81 81.8
20230801 34.74 81.37
20230802 34.06 79.49
20230803 36.66 81.55
20230804 37.01 82.82
20230807 38.91 81.94
20230808 39.64 82.92
20230809 39.94 84.4
20230810 39.44 82.82
20230811 39.36 83.19
20230814 41.53 82.51
20230815 40.47 80.5
20230816 39.91 79.02
20230817 41 79.9
20230818 40.94 80.66
20230821 41.99 80.12
20230822 41.61 79.64
20230823 41.83 78.89
20230824 41.45 79.05
20230825 41.79 79.83
20230828 41.9 80.1
20230829 41.7 81.16
20230830 42.13 81.63
20230831 42.78 83.63
20230901 42.6 85.55
20230905 41.95 86.69
20230906 41.8 87.54
20230907 41.99 86.87
20230908 42.12 87.51
20230911 40.99 87.29
20230912 42.16 88.84
20230913 38.48 88.52
20230914 36.64 90.16
20230915 35.02 90.02
20230918 35.65 90.58
20230919 35.36 90.48
20230920 34.4 89.66
20230921 33.02 89.63
20230922 32.91 90.03
20230925 34 89.68
20230926 34.41 90.39
20230927 35.6 93.68
20230928 36.51 91.71
20230929 35.77 90.79
20231002 33.39 88.82
20231003 33.19 89.23
20231004 31.19 84.22
20231005 30.98 82.31
20231006 32 82.79
20231009 32.98 86.38
20231010 34.15 85.97
20231011 33.17 83.49
20231012 33.46 82.91
20231013 34.6 87.69
20231016 35.54 85.26
20231017 36 85.44
20231018 36.27 87.27
20231019 35.84 88.37
20231020 35.26 88.08
20231023 35.23 85.49
20231024 34.51 83.74
20231025 34.15 85.39
20231026 34.1 83.21
20231027 33.53 85.54
20231030 33.57 82.31
20231031 34.1 81.02
20231101 33.48 80.44
20231102 36.36 82.46
20231103 36.45 80.51
20231106 34.25 80.82
20231107 33.15 77.37
20231108 32.57 75.33
20231109 32.08 75.74
20231110 31.9 77.17
20231113 31.9 78.26
20231114 32.5 78.26
20231115 32.52 76.79
20231116 31.44 73.09
20231117 31.8 76.04
20231120 32.39 77.83
20231121 31.99 77.77
20231122 32.36 77.1
20231124 32.46 75.54
20231127 31.53 74.86
20231128 31.58 76.41
20231129 31.81 77.86
20231130 31.81 75.96
20231201 32.1 74.07
20231204 32.6 73.04
20231205 31.3 72.32
20231206 29.31 69.38
20231207 29.59 69.34
20231208 30.55 71.23
20231211 29.95 71.32
20231212 27.35 68.61
20231213 28.14 69.47
20231214 28.55 71.58
20231215 28.53 71.78
20231218 28.36 72.82
20231219 28.59 73.94
20231220 28.02 74.22
20231221 28.62 73.89
20231222 28.83 73.56
20231226 29.62 75.57
20231227 29.11 74.11
20231228 28.75 71.77
20231229 29.08 71.65
20240102 28.61 70.38
20240103 29.1 72.7
20240104 28.16 72.19
20240105 28.1 73.81
20240108 27.86 70.77
20240109 27.39 72.24
20240110 27.22 71.37
20240111 27.28 72.02
20240112 27.5 72.68
20240116 26.21 72.52
20240117 25.84 72.48
20240118 25.87 73.95
20240119 25.7 73.25
20240122 26.14 74.76
20240123 26.35 74.37
20240124 26.82 75.09
20240125 27.64 77.36
20240126 27.36 78.01
20240129 27.19 76.78
20240130 27.8 77.82
20240131 26.56 75.85
20240201 26.31 73.82
20240202 26.19 72.28
20240205 25.99 72.78
20240206 26.44 73.31
20240207 26.54 73.86
20240208 27.21 76.22
20240209 26.54 76.84
20240212 27.49 76.92
20240213 26.34 77.87
20240214 26.13 76.64
20240215 27.7 77.59
20240216 27.91 78.46
20240220 27.49 77.04
20240221 28.05 77.91
20240222 28.1 78.61
20240223 27.43 76.49
20240226 27.64 77.58
20240227 28.59 78.87
20240228 28.45 78.54
20240229 28.39 78.26
20240301 29.79 79.97
20240304 29.48 78.74
20240305 30.73 78.15
20240306 30.66 79.13
20240307 30.56 78.93
20240308 30.77 78.01
20240311 31.34 77.93
20240312 31.72 77.56
20240313 31.94 79.72
20240314 33.41 81.26
20240315 33.92 80.58
20240318 35.15 82.16
20240319 35.45 82.73
20240320 34.97 81.27
20240321 34.75 81.07
20240322 34.67 80.63
20240325 35.34 81.95
20240326 34.43 81.62
20240327 34.69 81.35
20240328 34.14 83.17
20240401 34.36 83.71
20240402 34.47 85.15
20240403 34.42 85.43
20240404 33.92 86.59
20240405 33.77 86.91
20240408 33.89 86.43
20240409 34.44 85.23
20240410 34.82 86.21
20240411 33.82 85.02
20240412 33.07 85.66
20240415 32.35 84.86
20240416 31.84 84.83
20240417 30.01 82.15
20240418 29.67 82.1
20240419 30.06 82.22
20240422 30.15 81.9
20240423 30.53 83.36
20240424 30.74 82.81
20240425 31.45 83.57
20240426 32.03 83.85
20240429 33.18 82.63
20240430 30.72 81.93
SBOW...O&G prices were lower when SBOW gave guidance in Feburary, so hopefully guidance doesn't drop.
Looks like SBOW just hit what might be a bit of support so I added more in the $29.70's. Makes me heavier in the stock than I want to be, so hopefully I get a chance to sell some off after earnings for higher prices. We'll see what happens,
2024 Outlook:
In response to commodity prices, the Company lowered its previously planned capital investments in dry gas-focused areas by approximately $75 million, resulting in a revised 2024 capital program budget of $470 - $510 million
At current commodity prices, the Company expects to generate $125 - $150 million of estimated FCF, which is currently earmarked for significant debt reduction
The Company is maintaining planned investment in oil and liquids projects while keeping oil and liquids production guidance at previously announced levels. Revised capital investments reduce expected natural gas volumes by 13%
Production is expected to increase approximately 50% year-over-year to 85.2 - 93.5 MBoe/d, post-recent acquisition, oil production is expected to increase 70% year-over-year and comprise 25% - 30% of 2024 production mix
GPN
I have to be honest. I have no idea I listened to the CC. pretty much all the analyst were saying good job with the quarter, which it was.
Here are my theories of why and that is all they are:
1) Payment stocks are down because of the SQ news. Wouldn't concern me in the long run, I'm buying GPN, not SQ.
2) Technical selloff if you look at a chart once it broke the $120 level, It was gonna drop at least in the $110-115 range. There was no support for a while once it broke $120.
3) I could think of is maybe adjusted eps was only like 8% for the quarter, and maybe they were hoping for more, although even that seems crazy considering they beat analyst estimates. They are guiding for 11-12% overall, so maybe they didn't like the eps growth this quarter was less than 11-12%? Albeit Q1 was the strongest y/y quarter by a country mile last year, so the lesser growth y/y might of simply been a much tougher comp with growth on the eps front accelarating in the coming quarters, which I believe will happen, in fact that is what the company is guiding for.
Personally I think reasons #1 and #2 make more sense and neither of which bother me for my view of GPN is significantly undervalued. Time will tell. Although as of right now I was clearly too early with my purchase of GPN. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
FISI +.42 to 17.64, thanks for that in depth post. I joined you with a few shares and have some GTC buy orders placed at lower prices ....
SBOW -.73 to 29.99, the culprit behind the recent weakness is falling crude oil prices, now under $80/bbl, down from near $88 just 3 weeks ago ..... NG prices have also been weak due to a supply glut.
GPN down 9% today. What was it about this morning's Q1 report that the market didn't like?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-payments-reports-first-quarter-105500080.html
SBOW...Stock price has hit the sh!tter past couple days, but it hasn't been on overly high volume. So I thought WTH, and added a little more this morning @ avg $30.12. Earnings tomorrow.
AAOI, just bought some @ $9.79
Earnings next week for the March qtr. I'm hopeful that MSFT will have given them more business, as they are increasing their data centers. I think, assuming more MSFT business, that AAOI could post around $1/share going forward. Either way, under $10 is not a bad risk/reward at this point.
GPN
Brought some GPN Today at $114.74. here is what I like.
GPN is a consistent Grower of eps, and that is what I like the most.
FY 24: $11.54-11.70 (Estimate)
FY 23: $10.42
FY 22: $9.32
FY 21: $8.16
FY 20: $6.40
FY 19: $6.22
FY 18: $5.19
FY 17: $4.01
FY 16: $3.19
That is a great track record of EPS growth. Estimates for FY 25 are north of $13. I believe GPN should trade at a 15 multiple. Hence I feel FV should be around $190-$200. But even lets say I'm too optimistic a 12 pe get us to about $160 in about a year. GPN I feel is excellent long-term consistent growth story trading at less than 10 times this years estimates, and less than 9 times next years estimates, for a company that consistentently grows eps by low double digits every year. Time will tell. But I think buying GPN down here will prove to be a very attractive entry point in the long run. Time will tell. Will add more on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SMCI...Hope you do well valuemind. I had a couple good trading days and am out now.
Still have the urge to trade it though because of the wild swings, so I removed it from my watchlist.
Good luck.👍
PRIM- I sold this morning
Down less than 1% on the trade- just that I think the Infrastructure stocks have already priced in the good times to continue till 2026, from the Infrastructure bill. I mean these stocks(ie TPC, PRIM, and STRL) are up 200% in the last year already !
Tempted to join ya on SMCI. Was in the mid $900's in AH yest. Seems like only a matter of time before it shoots higher again...
Buying back some BURCA in the mid $12's. Boring stock with an excellent 7.3% dividend yield. Seems like an attractive place to park some cash in this wobbly market.
And I thought their Q1 report last week was very solid. Flat earnings. But the year ago Q1 was unusually strong. So quite a feat to match that. I was expecting a sharp decline in Q1 earnings.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burnham-holdings-inc-reports-first-153000295.html
Bought back more SMCI at $730
Glad you made some money on the MIND preferreds. Funny I skimmed the CC transcript this morning. They actually said they wouldn't be answering any questions on the call about the preferred situation. Think I also heard that $5M in revenue was delayed from Q3 into Q4. Backlog still very strong, but sounds like some lumpy quarters coming up. I'm staying away with the preferred mess. But she's got a low float so who knows.
2morrowsGains: I bought back some SMCI at $742 because the third fiscal quarter ending March 31 is usually seasonally weak for SMCI, yet its revenue sequentially rose 5% and it is strength for me. Of course many investors misunderstood 5% sequential rise in revenue as a weakness from competition.
MIND / MINDP - I've been in and out of the preferred recently. It's a really interesting situation with the company trying to get the preferred holders to convert into common. The company seems pretty emphatic about wanting to preserve its working capital and thus doesn't want to pay out the preferred dividend at this time.
The preferred holders were supposed to vote on it on April 25, but the company postponed it to a yet undetermined date. Maybe they knew they didn't have the votes or maybe they wanted to get that good earnings report out ahead of it.
Good times coming to an end by May 31 IMO
AI is the only reason this market has held up so well, and after SMCI last night, I think the party is winding down. I have for a long time said this whole market since Oct 2022, has been a bear market rally, and I still think that. I would say, there will soon be little place to hide. I mean it's been the AI stocks, selected tech, energy, Infrastructure, and metals, but I think it's time to abandon those sectors as well. If I had one sector to pick to be in, it would be selected healhcare. I think the market gets much tougher from here for the rest of the year.
SBUX seemed to have a solid miss...
https://stocktwits.com/wallstengine/message/571333945
Question isn't the economy...
How does a coffee selling company
miss in a winter quarter?...
Too many working and not enough to
sit and drink coffee?...
So we watch...LJ
So the market tanks and oil price drops,
so why is U.S. Dollar up?...
On the Ai chips, the company with
the contracts to get chips to go into
products are in the lead,,,
Company already in that loop, should
have some advantage on the hard
side too...perhaps...
ARM is really the company in the cat
bird seat as long as Ai keeps rocking,
but seems priced in at its high price...
NVDA leadership is tied to TSM contracts
and their OpenAi connection...
Need to find a decent oil play during
this flop period...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI has a market cap of $50B, HPE is a mere $22B while DELL is $88B ....
HPE, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, has a forward PE of only around 9, so if they snatch some market share from SMCI and become viewed as an AI server growth story, the stock could see a lot of multiple expansion.
AMZN beat got whupped like SMCI
beat in after hours...
https://stocktwits.com/NewsByNick/message/571329500
What happens in afterhours stays
in after hours...
SMCI only has smidgen of sector sales
in comps to DELL and HPQ...
It is the much lower share count of SMCI
with a high price tag that shocks folks...
Oil price being brought down on Tuesday
and maybe Wednesday should give out
company price deals along the way...
The over priced oil for most of 2024,,,
now goes into period when higher prices
should start looking more correct,,,Opec
producers use a lot more of their own
production to cool in summer and it has
already started warming up there,,,And a
lower supply for world markets will occur
unless Opec+ increases oil production...
Just between us...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI - as I posted a few weeks ago, the AI server business has lower barriers to entry than the AI chip design business - SMCI will be experiencing increasing margin pressure in the coming months. The stock could be a good short term trader, but not a long term hold, imho.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173852229&txt2find=dell
DELL, HP
SMCI, if every company reported .87/share higher
than expected, the whole market
might implode...
NVDA was a small snag in after hours...
SMCI was a small snag at 4 times more
than NVDA in after hours...
This whole stupid day may have been a
set up for the wheels to kiss the ring of
J.P. with a rally coming next...
SMCI stunned me with the good numbers...
Peons are often easily impressed though...
ERX put calls for 70 were closed today
to not leave any profit on table...Oilies could
bounce with everything else...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI revenues were "hurt from stiff competition"
That's the entire reason the stock is getting hit. I mean it's nice that they are giving strong guidance, but they came in with lower revenues for the March qtr than guided for, and investors are concerned they could do that again in the June qtr. Bottom line is, they no longer have monopoly status. I wouldn't touch the stock based on that, despite the strong June qtr guidance. I think the stock is worth around $700-$750 and that's all the money. So to be a good buy, it has to go down to $650 or so IMO. Here is a link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-200957932.html
SMCI($730)- down $130 after hours !
SMCI($758) now down $100 after hours ?
This despite giving such strong guidance of around $8 for the June qtr ?
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/30/24)
Daily Performance
-0.27%
YTD Performance
+0.91%
Overall Performance
+476.18% (Including Options Trading +340.16%)
SMCI after hours range is now 797 to 947 .... with the stock currently at 858. Crazy action over just a few minutes! Who knows where it settles ???
Nice AH pop on SMCI. Or at least it was. Now down 6% after being up over 10%. This one sure is volatile!
SMCI +77 to 935 after hours after a solid earnings beat and strong guidance .....
SSKMP Trades
Buy 700 Shares of FISI
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
INMD -.09 to 17.14, looks oversold. I just added a few shares and sold the June $17.5 Calls for $1.25, so my cost basis on this purchase is around $15.90. Seems like a bargain. Earnings are due out Thursday morning.
SMCI -35 to 855 ahead of the earnings after the bell. Option premiums imply a mean expected move of $121 up or down on the news .... should be interesting.
DEA Agrees To Reschedule Marijuana Under Federal Law In Historic Move Following Biden-Directed Health Agency’s RecommendationPublished on April 30, 2024By Kyle Jaeger
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-agrees-to-reschedule-marijuana-under-federal-law-in-historic-move-following-biden-directed-health-agencys-recommendation/
AYSI - For all those wondering, it appears as though the settlement was approved. This is from the fund that pursued the legal action:
https://www.barelkarsan.com/2024/04/alloy-steel-court-settlement.html
Looks like weed stocks breaking out on fed rescheduling proposal.
Just a heads up.
FISI
Brought Some FISI today in the low 17's. here is what I like.
Dividend Yield: FISI pays you while you wait. In fact it yields right around 7% where I brought it, and I believe the divy is very safe.
Valuation: FISI Earned .11 on the face, begs the question why are you buying it. I see fraud events are rare and generally can happen to any bank, sometimes there is no good defense to it either. Hence I see the almost 19.1 Million that needs to be exed out. To be fair they also booked a reversal or gain on a provision of roughly 5.5 million so that need to be exed out too. Given that Earning were about .86 this quarter, which means the bank is trading at just 5 times earnings based on q1 annualized.
Loan Growth: Although loan growth was essentially flat sequentially I do expect it to pick up in future quarters.
Asset Quality: Asset quality remains in very decent shape overall, which is another plus.
Book Value: FISI trades at a decent discount to tangible book which is north of $23 right now. Hence another reason why it i attractive.
Other Info: FISI will also book a gain from selling the insurance operation in q2, now I will definetely ex that out. But it should also provide a nice comp for q2, and add to both book value. As a after tax gain of 11 million or so is expected.
Deposit Growth: FISI also had deposits grow nicely which is yet another plus. Showing the bank is healthy in my opinion.
NIMS: After declining quarter after quarter. NIMS Stabilized in q1 versus q4. And given annual guidance of 2.85%-2.95% for the year, in coming quarter that should increase which will be a boost to net interest income and ultimately profitability going foward.
What Do I expect in future quarter on the earnings front? Based on guidance we know NIMS is going higher probably around 2.90% on average the rest of the year easily. We know Non interest income will be about 9 million, and non interest expense will be about 33.5 million. Given actually take a provision of say 2 million a quarter to be conservative, saying a modest rise in interest earning assets over the course of the year. I say we should see earnings average slightly north of $1.00 a quarter from q2 -q4. if you believe like me that those are the number than we are looking at say somewhere between $4.00-4.25 annulized based on the average of the next three quarters. A 10 PE would get us to $40, but even like a 7 pe get us back to around $30. Hence why I feel this is the most attractive bank out there right now.
Conclusion: Why do I like FISI (1) Trades at steep discount to tangible book value. (2) Nims has bottomed and should start increasing sequentially, which should be helpful to net interest income and earnings per share. (3) Deposit growth is here, Loan Growth should pick up, and Asset quality looks solid. (4) The sale of the insurance operation should provide a nice gain in q2, which wlll add to book value, and make a impressive comp in q2, not that I wouldn't ex that out, but it can't hurt the stock price I would assume. (5) Dividend Yield of 7% essentially you get paid while you wait. Always a plus. (6) Cheap based on current earnings of .86 for q1 after making the adjustments. (7) Even cheaper if you think the guidance from the company is gonna occurs I could easily see $1.00+ on average for the next 3 quarters. of course we never know with earnings. I will buy more on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Anyone lucky enough to hold MIND into earnings? Stock has jumped from $4 to $6+ this week. Q4 numbers look fantastic. BUT the situation with the Preferreds is a mess. Common shareholders will probably get massively diluted at some point. But the stock is getting a nice pop today! I'll check out the CC transcript later...should be interesting.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mind-technology-inc-reports-fiscal-201500309.html
Yup FONR looks cheap with their earnings & balance sheet. But the stock has been on an ugly slide from the $22 area over the past month...wonder what's up?
ESP I added some .. as low as $20.90, but foolishly stuck an order in to sell the low $23's which hit this morning... I still own some, and in fact just noticed that I had sold more at $24.98. I don't think I want to own any come earnings day, I guess mid-month.
BTW, what do you think of FONR here in the mid/high $15's. I bought some, but imo it becomes a real strong risk-reward at $15 or lower. There, so long as they make in the mid thirties, there's little to no down side, and if they make .45+ then plenty of upside.
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