Savara, Inc. (SVRA)

[pray]

Been crashing everyday.

[Masala]

Yep Mstx shareholders are on the menu today.

[kpisme]

Continued dump in the wind today I see.

Timber!!!!!!!!!!! #2

If this keeps up it will make good toilet paper.

[Masala]

At this rate it might fall all the way down .. Why run for a falling knife ?

[TheKobra]

Crashing

[lux1]

Mine was a trying to determine the value of the company, I'm still set in my estimate for the middle-term. The perspective of short-term trading is pretty different, but this cannot change the overall valuation, then I think that these days PPS is very interesting and there is scope to a strong rising trend next months.
IMO

[Masala]

Sound like you have drunk the KooAide, one can't compare PIRS programs it's got many partnerships and a lots of drugs in its pipeline and it was at $2.39 yesterday..and that's just one comparison. SVRA will soon be cut to size the downtrend continues see you down the valley......I'm here to make some $$ not to lose it

[lux1]

3 drugs well positioned in an unmet medical market can justify my scenario and a corresponding demand aligned with all other similar companies listed on Nasdaq. but I agree with you that you have to follow the market to gain. Most likely the market has regarded as far more important not invest now, in a withdrawal period when the possible catalyst aren't so close, rather than rely on a middle-term fair value.
Of course from $6 is easier to double or to triple that from 10 or 15, especially knowing that Svra is worth much more than 6-7

[Masala]

SAVRA got nice shell for the cheap and a nice gift to put into its pipeline, if you the math, like I did, you will see the Mast share holders got screwed selling before the merger or soon after the merger was a no brained..
Some articles I read referred to Mast as a zombie, and a zombie waiting to be rescued hence white Knight.

[Masala]

Your are wrong in a public company capitalization is determinered by demand economics, this not a private company anymore 150m was just a bargaining prop, mast shareholders got screwed and the CEO bailed with a big fat check and SVRA got a shell plus a good trophy to add to its pipeline . Mast shareholders will be diluted to almost zero and that's looking at real dollars.

Hurry $5 or lower I'm waiting!!

[pray]

Hard to look at good side but if institutions who know the CEO are waiting for lows they may be close.

I added. Still have faith in CEO. Gotta give new company a chance, until proven wrong.

[someconcerns]

Thank you.

[pray]

http://savarapharma.com/development/pipeline/

A Phase 2/3 clinical trial of Molgradex to treat patients with PAP is currently on-going in the EU and Japan; top-line results are anticipated in the first half of 2018.

Savara anticipates initiating a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial of AeroVanc for the treatment of MRSA in cystic fibrosis patients in second half of 2017.

Aironite is currently in clinical studies for the treatment of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

[kpisme]

Timber..........

This is a pathetic cry for help !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHAT A POS

Lost 2/3 of value and it still keeps giving!

[lux1]

why should $30 be speculative? PPS refers to market capitalizatio and 500m are realistic even much more, if anything is when. Probably when a trial will have some good results,but maybe before if new big investors and not only the retailers, will forsee the potential.
Yesterday an article on SA refers to Vertex Pharm. , that has a strong pipeline and all in CF, it has a MC of $20B (2 drugs marketed and 2 B revenues), an order of magnitude different but a comparison about the potential is possible.

[someconcerns]

Agreement with Hercules terminated. Funds from Silicon Valley Bank (based on existing relationship with Savara), are used in part to pay off amounts the old Mast Therapeutics still owed Hercules.

[someconcerns]

Masala, Savara doing the reverse acquisition of Mast was certainly in their best interest but I think you have to evaluate any corporation's actions through the lens of whether they were fair to both parties and their shareholders.

Use of the label "white knight" is something the acquirer applies to themself to disguise their actual motives or a label we might assign to a person/company in retrospect. Before today, I do not think anyone has claimed white knight status for Savara. Tho, I have been hearing MSTX holders were relieved to be dealing with Rob Neville, rather than McCulley.

OTOH, Rob has been entirely forthright and fair in his dealings with other entities, both those he has acquired and those he has not. I've known him personally since 2012 and have had many conversations.

[someconcerns]

lux1, I may be mistaken, but didn't Rob say yesterday, in the conference call, that the Molgradex drug study would be done in this (2017) calendar year? Q12018 would still be fine with me.

[someconcerns]

Masala, Well, either a $30 or a $5 valuation is speculative.

While $5 is closer to the range of trading since SVRA started last friday and could be seen prior to a much-higher SP movement to $25-30, I do think enough people and institutions would snap the stock up at that bargain ($5) price.

Just last month, I snapped up the shares I could acquire at $3.13 when I exercised my Series B warrants (acquired when I bought Series B Pfd shares in 2012). That price was fixed in place years ago.

I will say that a price of $30 very quickly would have me evaluating whether to sell any of my existing shares. My former MSTX shares could be sold today. My old Savara shares are locked in for differing periods of time.

[Masala]

Says who its 150M? That appears to be share holder negative equity, it not the value of the company, just because management says it's value is 150m doesn't make it so...the street determines value. We didn't know the value of SVRA until after the deal was sealed...anyways I still like it but not at $8-10 but much lower

[pray]

Waiting for documentation that value of pipeline, money in back, equals $150 million as stated. I try to keep it as simple as possible subtracting loans by shares.

I never got excite over that loan one share trade either. Just a after market pumper fishing, but thanks for your concern over "panties."

[Masala]

I was just questioning a $30 PS valuation given on this board...and 11m on hand is a drop in the bucket...SVRA was no white Knight they really needed to get the deal done or it would have been curtains down even lenders get fatiqued by everyday cash raising as we will get to see here in a few days.

[someconcerns]

Masala, Why do you persist in calling this a "broke company?" Very few early to mid stage biotechs have huge amounts of funds on hand.

Savara has readily been able to raise whatever funds it needs when it needs those funds. Could they use more funds to advance their pipeline? Of course. But sometimes a bigger limitation has been competition at treatment facilities for recruiting the same patients other companies developing treatments are seeking.

They have an excellent relationship in the CF community, beginning with the CF Foundation, which has advanced them non-dilutive grant funds before.

Please look at their history before simply pasting these broad labels on them.

[someconcerns]

Masala, The 15 million shares attributable to holders of Savara before the merger are not simplistically held by "hedge funds."

I am one such holder - and I know many more - who are just individuals. I hold those shares just as I do most of my holdings... for long term investment. Not a hedger. Not a shorter. Just a long-term bio investor.

[lux1]

just a read to begin about GM-CSF inhalation in autoimmune PAP.(Savara Molgradex)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22112784

CONCLUSIONS:
GM-CSF inhalation decreased the concentration of total protein and SP-A in BALF, and increase interleukin-17 and cancer antigen-125 in improved lung of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis.

A little patience P2/3 should finish 1Q 2018.
My though is that it could be filed for approval in 2018

[Masala]

I still do not get where you get $30 a share, this is a broke company that needed the merger so it could raise capital..it has only 11M in the bank, I see why phase 3 CF has been delayed for over 2 years. There are companies with better pipelines and with a lot more cash and a lot cheaper.

[Masala]

Don't get your panties bunched up because of a one share trade that brought the $$ to $10, I would be more worried of the hedge Funds that own 15M shares, those are the guys who will eat your 401k.

What's news there is nothing that could affect the $$ in near horizon.

[pray]

By the CC we should be getting news next couple weeks. Will get interesting.

[pray]

Bet you shorted that one share after hours @ $10.00.

:)

[someconcerns]

Conference call underway. Rob Neville speaking.

Savara will hold a conference call on Tuesday May 2nd, 2017, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time / 3:30 p.m. Central Time to provide an overview and business update. Interested parties may access the conference call by dialing [phone] from the U.S., [phone] from Canada, and [phone] from outside the U.S. and should request the Savara Inc. Call. A live webcast of the conference call will be available online from the Investors section of Savara's website at http://www.savarapharma.com/investors/events/. Replays of the webcast will be available on Savara's website for 30 days and a telephone replay will be available through May 9th, 2017 by dialing [phone] from the U.S., [phone] from Canada, and [phone] from elsewhere outside the U.S. and entering replay access code 10104600.

[Masala]

Let just agree to disagree.......you've PP at $30, I believe PP is over valued and have mine at $5. We don't have long to wait for the lockup period to be over.

[lux1]

I disagree $30 is the fair value of SVRA when some P2/3 started

[someconcerns]

Lots of dollars required.

[Masala]

Thank you I could short all I want as long as my market maker is not in the US and of course if I had lots millions $

[someconcerns]

If you had a willing marker maker (who is not actually lending you shares but who is willing to take your IOUs) who is not going to report you for a Failure to Delliver (FTD) after the 3 days when you are supposed to cover your short position with at least borrowed shares... then you could.

Of course they would extract a hefty price for doing that and violating SEC regs.

[pray]

That is impossible because you would have to have 100% on sale and we know that is not going to happen.

[Masala]

if I wanted to naked short what could stop me?

[someconcerns]

Pray,
Yes, I'm sure entities/individuals who want to acquire shares cheaply will try to push the SP down, either through some small sales, trading among themselves at lower prices through MMs who are in on the deal or by talking down the stock and the prospects of the drugs.

That said, I certainly would not either borrow shares to short or naked short the shares. Far too volatile a stock for that until more shares can be traded. In full disclosure, once upon a time I used to short stocks but that was over 40 years ago.

[pray]

In all fairness there was some discussion of an "offering." Doubt after a 15 million loan but that would drop price to $5.00 or below. PR after close, will find out.

[Masala]

Oops error

[Masala]

Oops but you point

[pray]

I see 30 thousand shares traded by noon and you call that 30 million?

I see 3 drugs valued at at least 4 million and you see no value?

All drugs in stage 2 or 3 and worth only $4.00?

http://savarapharma.com/development/pipeline/

"Nothing can stop shares from being borrowed?" Bro.... I am rolling on the floor.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp

You pumpers/dumpers are what make this site so humorous. PR after closing. Good luck.

[someconcerns]

Masala, I see only 33,000 shares traded today so far. Where are you getting 30 million having traded?

[Masala]

Please could you stop making up stuff ... share price dropped 70% and it will fall further with the additional 15m not trading now.
$15pp is again pulled up from no where.

Nothing can stop shares from being borrowed, as long as there are no jails for "failures to deliver" naked sells will be made. Case in point there are about 3M shares available for trading yet 30M have traded

[pray]

Watch ... after the RS shares dropped by 40%. You are correct about the revenue, my point was flippers both yesterday and today making a killing.

If you put your sell price unreachable shares can not be borrowed. Thats what is happening both today and yesterday.

Should settle around $15.00. In the meantime there are several drugs in pipeline. In the next month sure management will review possible income as well as risks. Good luck ....

PS Never build a castle until you first build your outhouse.

[Masala]

I'm putting my buy order at $5 , who know how dilution will happen when the 15m shares start trading..... a SVRA warrants holder had a conversion rate of $4pp....beware

[Masala]

Are will building castles in the air now...$30pp without revenue is dreaming.

[Masala]

I beg to differ on that...it's trading very thinly only 3.5m shares are hence the wild price jumps, the over15m shares will smoothen the bids and offer when they begin trading. And the 100% institutional ownership will make trading pretty volatile there could be heavy selling or the opposite could be true anyways cash is good for me right now.

[someconcerns]

IMHO, the best entry would be with a GTC order at the price you'd be willing to spend. SVRA is so volatile - as Pray said - that you do not have time to react manually.

[pray]

Like I shared ... flippers will seek shares discounted. I put sell order yesterday on all shares at $25.

When it hits $15.00(hopefully today) orders will be increase to $30.00.

Having a sell order locks shorts out of borrowing shares.

If shares are not up for sale shorts are allowed to borrow your shares. If no shares to borrow price will elevate.