S&P short term cycle swings

[dapro]

sorry, don't see the need for another board. Bye

[SyndicateTwo]

okay, I started a new board called 'BC option trading'. I'm going to use a new $10k account and post all trades on that board using seasonal stock picks to do it. I think you'll be amazed at how it turns out (hopefully).

So, start posting over there....



http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=15543

[dapro]

Even I think that Moe has no clue (as if anybody did). We will be range bound. When we all figure out what that range is, we will do well. JMHO

[SyndicateTwo]

'stockmarketcycles.com'

[SyndicateTwo]

You have to understand how the market works --- FEAR rules. But the fear of missing rallies RULES fear of losing money.

Right now, if you look at the mutual fund inflows via TrimTabs, money is pouring back into the market. What appears to be happening is that last fall everyone was freaking out and pulling out money. Today they are back to feeling everything is settling down and driving that money back.

However, if I've learned anything over the years, it's that the market has one purpose - to steal your money anyway it can. Unless you hold for a long time, fo-get-abowed-it.

That's why 85%+ of 'traders' lose. Elidias has an eventual projection of the final low in the DOW at 4000 and SPX with a '4' in front of it. He's been the most right since this all began. Moe has had him on his show many times over the years. I even hear Moe specifically talk about Elidias projections.

You have to understand that now, market seasonality starts to take over and that isn't good for the tech stocks and overall averages. Now biotech/drugs/healthcare start to move. That's why I'm in EBS and BLUD. On Tuesday I'll give out the exact dates to start really piling into those calls. July is going to be a big month for them. Retail stocks like ARO, COH, and LTD all start to really fall the end of this month.

Also oil stocks start to fall. XOM is a big loser from June to July.

But right now the market is in catch up mode. Fully or even overvalued. So, there is a big chance we start to fall big soon. But not like the Fall. SPX 800 is the target. If the market pulls back to that level, it should see a big move up off it. However, if broken, new lows for sure.

But we're a long way from that. All this new money coming in could still be enough to push it higher, completely screwing all the technical guys. But when it runs out, watch out below. The volume has been anemic on the last 1000 points in the DOW which backs up the mutual fund buying and not panic to buy. They are slowly adding, not chasing. So, could get interesting fast.

[dapro]

even Moe is getting nervous in that he is now believing that a lot of the money that was on the sideline is now getting back in. I wonder if he still believes that they will get their asses handed to them in the event that the market tanks again.

[dapro]

everything I am hearing now is calling for a market top around 7/15. Let's see how this one progresses

[pHiLtHy]

source please? btw, thanks for posting setups in ibox... nice.

[SyndicateTwo]

I'm going to paste what was said tonight. I'm not going to do this very much because I don't want someone complaining about it to them. But I think tonight's update was very interesting...


Because we believe the market is at such a critical juncture, we are again attaching charts to today's update to show you where the market stands on an updated version. To refresh your memory, the rising line is a rising trendline drawn from the exact low of October 11th, 1990 through the exact low of December 9th, 1994. The descending line is an exact trendline from the low of August 16th, 2007 through the low of January 23rd, 2008. The importance of this line is enriched because a parallel line drawn above it through the all-time high in October 2007 virtually exactly intersects the May 19th, 2008 high which was the high for the year last year. As you note from the chart, neither of those lines has been fully met although they have been very closely approached. They do not have to be met, of course, but based on where the market is and what our readings tell us there could be a dramatic reaction in one direction or the other very quickly from these levels. We feel strongly the move will be to the downside.

There is another turning point pattern of potential importance which was due to resolve today with a margin of error of a day or two at the most. The second chart attached to today's update shows this turning point pattern of 104 trading days. The most recent dates of resolution beginning at the all-time high close of October 9th, 2008, with the next date at March 10th, 2008 (in a strong down year, that closing low held for the next four months). After that came August 6th, 2008, a date which showed the greatest margin of error being early by three days but the subsequent decline from there was dramatic. The next resolution was due on January 5th, 2009, and that was a virtual bull's-eye preceding another dramatic market decline over the next two months. The next resolution is due today, June 4th ± a day or two.

If the market decides on a final spurt before what could be a dramatic decline, the two lines in the chart will be between 951.80-957 tomorrow. In fact, unless the market starts down immediately and hard in the morning, there will be a projection up to around the 956 area from the intraday projection charts.

[dapro]

does this dude Peter Elidias have a daily radio show like Moe?

[randygee]

what does he say about a close over 944?

[dapro]

funny you should mention it. This article came out today. Look at where the money is flowing....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-Pour-17-Billion-indexuniverse-15442042.html?sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

[SyndicateTwo]

Peter Elidias is saying that if the SPX closes below 906, it would re-establish the 'super bear' case for new lows very quickly.

Keep in mind, they've been the most accurate of all I follow the last year.

[SyndicateTwo]

I haven't been listening to him but I remember he was thinking this was a larger wave 4 upward correction expecting a final 5th low due Oct-ish.

However, he, along with most technicians who've typically been very good over the years have been completely wrong in their predictive powers on this rally. I mean the best of the best. The market hasn't been acting like it's supposed to act. What I mean is markets don't go straight up without pauses.

That said, it's very clear if you look at the bigger picture of the market, this rally really seems to be nothing more than a big correction. It looks actually quite weak compared to the overall waves.

SPX 1000-ish has always been the upside target area on this. But now you can't make the case for valuation anymore. Now it's strictly hope that the economy will return to 'normal' soon which will be used as an excuse for the market to attempt to return to it's old highs.

I don't buy it. The SPX at 1500 in 2007 was there because of all the free money being thrown around via easy credit. That's gone for a long time. It will return eventually. Wall Street never changes. But Obama-nomics is going to assure there is no such thing as heavy speculation while he's in charge. And that alone will assure the market won't have any justification for making big gains.

It's clear by the huge volume in options that most are using them as synthetic stock plays to gain that 'alpha' return becuase there is no way they can get it in stocks now.

[dapro]

If you've been listening to Moe, he is calling for a range on the S&P of between 600 and 1000 for the foreseeable future. I wonder what he said on today's show after today's action as he still thinks that we are still in a wave 3.

[SyndicateTwo]

BLUD making a bull flag. I'd be a buyer into this pullback. Buying more of those calls if I can get them under .50. But I doubt it.

Look at AMGN today. You're seeing the rotation into these stocks.

[SyndicateTwo]

Hey, another two stocks that look ready to explode are

ESI and APOL.


ESI could easily run to $120. I'm not in the trade, but looks good.

[SyndicateTwo]

You sure are right about that. You see that chart of the SPX above? That near parabolic move up off the March low? Well, remember back in late Feb we were here talking about the TNA calls? I bought 30 of the I think it was June $10 calls with an average of $4ish. I know some were in at $3ish.

I FRIGGN KNEW IT WAS GOING TO DO THIS!!!!!!!!!

But what did I do? I listened to much to Moe. He WAS CONVINCED BASED ON THE HOURLY WAVE COUNT THAT THE MARKET WAS GOING TO DO ONE LAST LEG DOWN UNDER THE MARCH LOW.

Having listened to him for so long, I know that when he says something so strongly, you really have to listen. So, I sold for a couple thousand dollar profit. BUT IT COULD HAVE BEEN FRIGGN' OVER $20k !!!!!! MOE YOU F"cker!


Just kidding, Moe. But damn, shoulda just rode it out. But then again, you just never know. At the time the market seemed to want to keep going lower and everyone was ready in their bomb shelters.

[SyndicateTwo]

Tyka,



WDC's seasonality is very ugly starting about now. I am almost sure you'll see the high teens on it. But expect possibly just the low $20s if the market catches a bid. I am in the camp that suggests the market could rollover here, but you never know. Keep that one on a tight leash.


BLUD I think has just a ton of potential. I'm in for 100 of those calls because I think it could easily run to $23+ by op-ex. They are very profitable and just affirmed their full year outlook putting them at a forward PE of 12. The stock has historically traded into the high $20s/low $30s on much less earnings power. Actually, every year for the last 5 years they've grown their earnings substantially. Look here-

http://finance.aol.com/earnings/immucor-inc/blud/nas/actuals-estimates

Now seasonally, look here-

http://finance.aol.com/quotes/immucor-inc/blud/nas/average-monthly-returns


July through Sep is very good for the stock. You add in the above and you got a possible monster.

I consider a 'monster' anything that will at least double your money. This could triple or more on those calls I think depending on how fast it moves. But what I like most about both it and EBS is that they are both tiny float stocks that are profitable in seasonally strong times of the year that haven't joined the party in the market yet.

Let's face it, AAPL at $140, RIMM at $82, AMZN on $90, etc, etc. Oh, RIG at $83, FCX at $50, c'mon. Pretty much missed those and they are now getting a little toppy. That leaves all this money looking for a home. Drugs and biotech is where it's at.

The volume also suggests there's much more to come on the upside for these.

EBS going to just $15 will more than double those $12.50 calls.

[poor_user]

Sorry, I did not mean to point the finger at you. It is services that are the joke!

And isn't funny when sometimes the trade goes against you even after doing a ton of DD.

[Tyka]

S2: I am following your foot steps to buy EBS July/09 call 12.50 @ 1.00. However, I saw the Volum of "Open Int" are so small. (so far there are only 56 open int.) Please advise.

Also, the price of BLUD Sep/09 call 20.00 is 0.90 now. Do you think that it is too expensive to enter at this price?

I bought WDC Jul/09 put 20.00 @ 0.50. Do you think that it is a good move?

[SyndicateTwo]

Okay, here's the trade I'm doing on EBS


I'm buying (not selling the $20 put) the July $12.50 call at $1 or less.

I think it runs easy to $15. That will 150% your money.

[MRVLReader]

S2: Please find the article below:
Qualcomm Inc. said it agreed to pay $891 million to Broadcom Corp. over four years as part of a settlement of a series of bitter legal disputes between the rival chip makers.

Under a deal announced late Sunday, Qualcomm and Broadcom agreed to end their litigation and exchange rights to each others' patents. Besides ending patent suits in the U.S., Broadcom agreed to drop antitrust complaints it has filed against Qualcomm in Europe and South Korea.

The deal is expected to help Broadcom become a more significant supplier of chips for cellphones, a market in which Qualcomm plays a pivotal role because of its control of key patents.

"At a time when the wireless industry should be focused on moving forward, the agreement removes uncertainty for Qualcomm and its customers," said Paul Jacobs, Qualcomm's chief executive, in prepared remarks.

Don Rosenberg, Qualcomm's general counsel, added in an interview that the deal preserves a key element of his company's business model: Qualcomm will be able to seek patent royalties from cellphone makers that use Broadcom chips. Royalties from handset makers are a key contributor to Qualcomm's profits.

Qualcomm disclosed Wednesday that it was in advanced talks about a "global settlement" of the disputes with Broadcom. The surprise development caused Qualcomm to postpone the release of its second-quarter results, which had been scheduled that day and are now expected to be announced Monday morning.

The two Southern California chip makers have waged a series of court battles. Broadcom, of Irvine, Calif., is a major supplier of communications chips but is a newcomer to the cellular arena.

One obstacle to Broadcom's plans in that market was the need to negotiate a patent license from Qualcomm. That company, based in San Diego, invented some widely used cellular technologies. Qualcomm receives patent royalties from chip makers and cellphone makers that use what the industry calls third-generation, or 3G, networks.

To put pressure on Qualcomm to grant favorable licensing terms, Broadcom filed multiple patent suits and other litigation against Qualcomm. Though Qualcomm filed suits of its own against Broadcom, the latter had chalked up more court victories so far.

Under the settlement, Broadcom will not have to pay Qualcomm patent royalties on the chips it sells. "Other than the payment we are making, neither of us is making ongoing payments," Mr. Rosenberg said.

Broadcom had argued in court that Qualcomm did not have the legal right to charge royalties both for cellphones and the chips inside them, under a principle known as "patent exhaustion."

Qualcomm's payments to Broadcom include $200 million that will be paid in the current quarter, ending June 30, the companies said.

"We have set aside our differences while addressing the needs of our customers, our shareholders and the industry," said Scott McGregor, Broadcom's chief executive, in a statement.

[dapro]

You don't seem to get it. McClellan is is just ONE tool, not the only tool. I do my own DD thank you. I also make my own mistakes.

[poor_user]

Oh, and another thing.

Watch how the next Bull Market begins and catches everyone looking in the rearview mirror and saying how did I miss this!!!

This may be happening now...

So even though I suffered some last year I watched how so many were so wrong. Now I am watching the same thing again. So many being wrong!!!

[poor_user]

ROFL!!!

Doesn't everyone go thru a time where they are wrong? The answer is yes. Doesn't everyone go thru a time where they are right? The answer is yes.

So why bother listening at all to McClellan, etc? Subscriptions to things like this are a waste of money. I can go thru a time where I am right and a time where I am wrong all by myself!!!

Just so you know I am always on the lookout for some genius or someone who can be right 80 or more percent of the time. Have not found one yet. And I am guessing I will never because as time rolls on I look less and less at people and what they are saying and more at the market first and the economy second.

This current Bear Market has taught me what matters most. And what I am loving the best is that everyone seems so confused right now. Well, those who look to formulas or patterns to light their way that is.

How can there be set things to watch when there are so many people who trade. It is a worldwide event so there is just to many people making to many decisions to say the market will follow a certain pattern.

To all the skeptics out there...just do yourself a big favor...watch the person or the service you wish is use to make money with and watch it fail. With out a doubt it will fail!!! You can not trust anyone so why bother with them or their service?

[dapro]

Anybody listen to Moe Ansari today? If so, could you give a quick synopsis? TIA

[goofyfoot]

IMHO, I've come to believe that some of the TARP/TALF money is being used by banks as investment capital, with, I'm guessing here, some level of collusion between them, to drive stock prices up through coordinated buying. No one will investigate this because everyone is winning right now.

I see being in the market as being on the right side of the trade, right now. Last Wednesday, everyone freaked because there appeared to be a reversal to the downside, but that was just a head fake, maybe just to keep things looking honest.

Many people swore off the stock market in February and definitely in the first week of March. These are people that will probably take a long time to become reacquainted with market trends. Since things have been going up for almost three months since then, some of those people might be changing their minds and cautiously buying back in (finally).

The trouble is, as I see it, in three months, the market has roared back up to a level that usually takes several years to reach. Of course, on March 9th, everything was priced for Armageddon, so maybe this is partially a technical bounce. But, so much almost "free" money from the government is out there, and probably not even a third of it has been invested, at this point.

If these banks play it a little smarter this time, given all the PhDs on their staffs, they might actually get out near the top, with some profit. Something good to show their shareholders, maybe? Then, again, that'll make the markets go back down.

Then what?

[SyndicateTwo]

Well, technically, keep this in mind. The SPX and DOW both broke out of triangle on Friday. They've been formed from about May 20th. Triangle typically happen at the END of rallies to give that last push higher. Large consolidated moves like triangles are just final pushes.

So, let's see what this brings.


BLUD set to run to $20. Possibly starting tomorrow.

[SyndicateTwo]

It's that serious of a problem. Remember how when Obama first took office and everytime he opened his mouth the market tanked? He was constantly asked about what he thought of the market's fall and what he was going to do about it and he said he didn't follow the market, nor should anyone else. It will do what it does.

Then, someone got to him and educated him on the ramifications and he quickly changed his tune.

Yes, it sounds conspiratorial and yes, it seems like an attempt to excuse the rally away from anything other than it just going up.

But markets don't just go straight up like this. They stairstep and there is a level of fear out there to not be left out. As I always say, people are more afraid of missing rallies than losing money. However, the best technicians are at a loss because no TA works these days, It just defies all logic. When you then look at what the Fed has done and is doing, it starts to make sense. Then guys like my friend in the 'biz', Greg, who actually works at one of the big firms in NY comes and tells me that they hear from the Street level that there is a ton of this going on. That is, money being diverted into the market to stabalize it.

Now, we're stabalized. However, the continuation seems to be more manipulative than anything. And I don't mean in a bad way. Just that there seems to be a concerted effort to try and 'keep it going' to raise the levels of the averages.

Now the DOW said today they are changing out GM and AIG for CSCO and Travelers Insurance. Those should help the DOW gain because CSCO could easily run up 20% in the next year. However, it won't help the DOW go back to where it was like a move of GM from $1 to $10 would do.

[MRVLReader]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/31/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/31fund.html?_r=2

[pHiLtHy]

i'll add that S2's assuming 'they' actually care what happens to 401K, retirement, pension funds... to the contrary i believe it's 'they're' objective to get as many on the gov. dole as possible.

but for the mkt. to sustain the rally??? i just don't see it having anything to fundamentally support it...

[dapro]

I hear what your saying. However, your scenario smacks too much of manipulation which is not good for the market as who would invest in something that is "rigged"? Also, who in their right mind would believe that after all that we have been through, all is well (based on the sham stress tests which are done on a regular basis anyway when banks are audited by the FDIC) and the market should go straight up like it has? Some bank stocks are almost back to their pre valuation prices (and thats not factoring in the major dilution). In other words, what the hell can you believe?

[hlniv]

Amazing how the only reason anyone can come up with for the market going higher is that the government needs it to & the banks are enabling... this clearly tells me something

anybody have any idea what? Because I don't know anymore...

[SyndicateTwo]

Okay, I have a trade. I think it's a sure thing, but don't quote me on it. BLUD

The seasonality of all these is that the healthcare/biotech stocks rule the summer.

BLUD is at $15 having fallen on some kind of investigation BS. I'm targeting the Sep $20 calls at .50 or less. This could be a bigggy.



As for the market on Friday, understand what's going on and why you have to be carefull about betting on the fall. Yes, the market 'should' go down. However, there are things at work that might not let that happen. Let me explain...


First off, retirement accounts. The government needs everyone's 401ks back so they can fund private retirements rather than the government having to bail them out, too. But really consider the pension funds out there underwater and underfunded. That's a huge monster problem. All state and federal retirement plans are invested in pensions. Most got their asses kicked in this decline and are underfunded. That needs to change. Another reason for 'them' to run the market.

The Fed has systematically tried to kill any investment competitor to the stock market as a viable alternative to the market. Why? For all the reasons above.

The reason gold isn't at $2k or better as it otherwise would be under the current circumstances is because I believe there is a concerted effort to make sure it doesn't happen. Again, 'they' need to make all investments other than stocks un-viable. They desperately need the market back up to again fund the retirement accounts.

There is no way in hell Obama is getting healthcare and any one of the other high tax/spend programs without the market back up.

Now the key here is that the SPX is right at the 200 day MA. I think it's at 943 right now. If the SPX can close convincingly above that, HUGE amounts of money will pile into the market. I think there is a very concerted and I will add 'dubious' attemtp to make that happen. That alone could run the market very well.

So, be carefull betting against it. If there was another big leg down coming as I always thought, you'd see the market much weaker than it is. I doubt there's some large amount of huge selling blocks of stock like there was in the Fall last year because we'd see signs of it. We don't.

Now the problem with all this is the fact that the bond market is warning us to forget about printing any more money. That run to almost 4% the last week was a prelude of what's to come if the Fed and Obama keep it up with the spending and printing.

If the bond market decides to dump bonds because of all that and Obama blows them off, the market is headed to new lows for sure.

But until that happens, don't fight it. The NASI and NYSI are both on weekly sell signals. That's a concern for long traders. But that could change.

[dapro]

let's see if 2009 mimics 2008. That should lead the market back down starting about now.

[dapro]

that move on all of the averages in the last hour of trading killed everyones TA. Could it just be the end of the month or is there some other sinister crap happening? Before that happened it looked like all the averages were starting to roll over. I find it hard to believe that a GM BK could undo all of that.

[SyndicateTwo]

Well, here's what I'm looking at ---


ARO

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f604e955-716d-4b9f-94b7-bb2749048bf8

To change the symbol, just start typing it.


BTW - you guys REALLY should check out 'freestockcharts.com'. How cool is that? It basically is the same as paying Esignal $100 a month. It streams FREE real time on that chart and allows you to do basically everything what you pay other services for. All for FREE.


Anyway, the market is clearly starting to move back into the normal cyclical movements it does. So, I'd expect the normal seasonal moves to happen. That means these retail stocks probably will begin to fall big starting in late June-ish with the big moves in July/Aug. So, with ARO moving higher here, I'd start to move into the Oct $30 puts probably 1 at a time. Maybe 1 every other day to average into them. The reason I say that is because I think it could run to $40ish. But that would bring the options down dramatically. Right now, the 50% retrace is about $25. That will climb if the stock moves higher than $37.50.

Will advise

[dapro]

At this point McClellan doesn't seem to know his ass from a hole in the ground. The only constant is "ugly from Sept to NOV".
We are on our own with other sources.

[SyndicateTwo]

Okay, here's what I'm focusing on --

ARO and COH, especially ARO, have a major major major seasonal shift south starting really in July. So, the higher they go the better. It could be that ARO is in the process of completing a 5th wave high here. Fine with me. $37+ would be a great place to start getting into a large put positon. I think if traded properly, we could be in for a triple or better.

[SyndicateTwo]

I was doing a scan on my new software and look at this one---


RAH - Ralcorp


It's at $57.27, but is turning pretty strong here. What I'm looking at is the July $60 calls for $1.50. $62.50 could be the easy target.

I'm going to get back to you'all on this one. Could be very interesting. Great earner with a low PE and LOW FLOAT of only 54 mill shares. Stuck in a year long range between $72 and $52.50.

[sungolfer]

S2 Thanks for the heads up.

[SyndicateTwo]

Okay, according to Peter Elidias of StockMarketCycles.com, anytime between now and next Friday should mark this rally's high. June 1st (monday) from another source is calling for a cycle turn date of some degree +/- a day or so.


You have to take what Elidias says seriously because they present an indicator they follow called the 25.8% envelope and speed resistance lines that have proven to litterally stop all market advances. It's really incredible. SPX 910 or so is where it stands now and just look. So, we'll see. I noticed that seasonally, many stocks other than Biotech all start to fall beginning next month and into early Aug with an Aug bounce into Sep that then brings them all down big into Oct.

This Oct is a major cycle low area which could setup for a monster call option buy spree in late Oct.

[blasher]

OK, no problem . . . . ....
oh no! .. you've used my real name . . .
I am Blasher .. not John.
LOL .. jk
Good Luck in Skool !!!

[Tictac]

Yes John, thanks. Finishing up the school year. I'll get back to you soon.

[blasher]

It was sent two nights ago . . .
I hope you're thinking about it.

[MRVLReader]

S2: Do you have the seasonal chart for "ROST" ?
Try to buy Aug. $35 put or $32.50 put... which one is better?
Thanks!

[MRVLReader]

S2: Take a look --- LH in July... all "RED"

http://www.deepmarket.com/season/lh

however, base on LRC, it is the time to buy...

http://www.prophet.net/analyze/sc.jsp?size=468,400&pricedisplay=3&duration=3m&frequency=0&log=1&redbars=0&showSpreads=&hidevolume=1&hideevents=1&ustudy=&lstudy1=&lstudy2=&lstudy3&MA=&MAPars=&studies=CCI=14,,;LRC=100,,&scheme=blugray


Just take 20 calls for tomorrow.

[SyndicateTwo]

Yeah. But I am now just short it. Today it had a real hard time with $25. What I notice is that almost all of the storage stocks are topping out.


However, look at LH and KND. All these healthcare sector stocks are seasonally strong from now to July. LH specifically looks like it could move from here ($61) to over $66 and easily to $70. The Aug $70 calls are .50.

I'm trying to decide if there's a sure trade here...

[Tyka]

S2: Did you have a typo of WDC July put. It should 17.50 instead 17.00. Am I right?