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Breakaway gaps are the exciting ones. They occur when the price action is breaking out of their trading range or congestion area. To understand gaps, one has to understand the nature of congestion areas in the market. A congestion area is just a price range in which the market has traded for some period of time, usually a few weeks or so. The area near the top of the congestion area is usually resistance when approached from below. Likewise, the area near the bottom of the congestion area is support when approached from above. To break out of these areas requires market enthusiasm and, either, many more buyers than sellers for upside breakouts or more sellers than buyers for downside breakouts.
Daily Candlestick Chart for PARA
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The Basis of Technical Analysis
At the turn of the century, the Dow Theory laid the foundations for what was later to become modern technical analysis. Dow Theory was not presented as one complete amalgamation, but rather pieced together from the writings of Charles Dow over several years. Of the many theorems put forth by Dow, three stand out:
• Price Discounts Everything
• Price Movements Are Not Totally Random
• "What" Is More Important than "Why"
Price Discounts Everything
This theorem is similar to the strong and semi-strong forms of market efficiency. Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information. Because all information is already reflected in the price, it represents the fair value, and should form the basis for analysis. After all, the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It would be folly to disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of people with impeccable credentials. Technical analysis utilizes the information captured by the price to interpret what the market is saying with the purpose of forming a view on the future.
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Daily Candlestick Chart for KNSC
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What is More Important than Why
In his book, The Psychology of Technical Analysis, Tony Plummer paraphrases Oscar Wilde by stating:
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Daily Candlestick Chart for BULM
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Daily Candlestick Chart for SPQS
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Banking Institutions: Banking institutions cater to both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. The set of forex products offered by various banking institutions vary depending on their size. Some banks offer only spot exchange and currency forwards while the larger institutions offer currency options, currency swaps, currency futures, and option-dated currency forwards.
A large bank could trade billions of dollars daily, much of which is undertaken on behalf of customers, but some is conducted by proprietary desks, in other words: trading for the bank's own account.
A study by Greenwich Associates reveals that the top foreign exchange dealers are dominated by banking institutions such as Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citigroup, Barclays, and the Royal Bank of Scotland. The exact percentage of the daily global forex turnover accountable to banking institutions is not known but Deutsche Bank and UBS each comprise more than 10% of the market share. What’s for certain is that a sizeable part of daily forex trading is concentrated among the world’s top 10 foreign exchange banks. Around 90% of all foreign currency transactions are done by banks, companies, and individual traders.
Introduction to Chart Patterns
There are hundreds of thousands of market participants buying and selling securities for a wide variety of reasons: hope of gain, fear of loss, tax consequences, short-covering, hedging, stop-loss triggers, price target triggers, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, broker recommendations and a few dozen more. Trying to figure out why participants are buying and selling can be a daunting process. Chart patterns put all buying and selling into perspective by consolidating the forces of supply and demand into a concise picture. As a complete pictorial record of all trading, chart patterns provide a framework to analyze the battle raging between bulls and bears. More importantly, chart patterns and technical analysis can help determine who is winning the battle, allowing traders and investors to position themselves accordingly.
In many ways, chart patterns are simply more complex versions of trend lines. It is important that you read and understand our articles on Support and Resistance as well as Trend Lines before you continue.
Chart pattern analysis can be used to make short-term or long-term forecasts. The data can be intraday, daily, weekly or monthly and the patterns can be as short as one day or as long as many years. Gaps and outside reversals may form in one trading session, while broadening tops and dormant bottoms may require many months to form.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) chart patterns example chart from StockCharts.com
Amazon (AMZN)[Amzn]
CIENA Corp. (CIEN) chart patterns example chart from StockCharts.com
CIENA (CIEN)[CIEN]
Daily Candlestick Chart for WIFT
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DeMarker Indicator: The Demarker Indicator is a technical analysis tool developed by Tom Demarker for identifying high-risk buying or selling areas in a given market.
Two variants of the Demarker Indicator exist, one bounded by values from -100 to 100, the other bounded by values from 0 to 1. The basic principle behind the Indicator is the same in either case. If the high price for a period is higher than the previous period's high, the DeMax variable for that period is the difference between the highs; the DeMin variable for the period works similarly for the low prices. The Demarker Indicator is then the moving average of DeMax divided by the sum of the moving averages of DeMax and DeMin. Thus, the higher the value of DeMax relative to DeMin, the greater the value of the Demarker Indicator.
On the 0 to 1 Demarker Indicator scale, a value anywhere above .7 indicates that a downward price turn is imminent, while a value anywhere below .3 indicates that the price will shortly turn upward. Values between .3 and .7 indicate relatively low-risk periods for entering a given asset market. Thus savvy traders can use the Demarker Indicator either to determine when to enter a market, or when to buy or sell an asset in order to capitalize on probable imminent price trends.
Daily Candlestick Chart for FOUR
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Double Bottom: A Double Bottom is a form of chart pattern used in technical analysis. This pattern is characterized by a distinct drop in price, followed by a slight reversal (or recovery) with a second drop occurring soon after to either the same or similar level as the first, before another, significant recovery so that the chart appears to take on the form of the letter 'W'.
The Double Bottom, along with its counterpart, the Double Top, is easily one of the most recognizable chart patterns. While both are reliable reversal patterns, highly indicative of chances in the market, the bullish Double Bottom reflects very strong levels of support and often indicates a strong change of trend.
The double low points are considered to be support levels, with the resistance level measured at the widest point of the 'W' formation. When the rise following the second low breaks the resistance point generally the rise will continue sharply, with these reversal trends garnering more reward following extended downtrends.
It is normally considered that the best entry point on a double bottom formation is around the secondary resistance level, which when broken tends to indicate a the confirmation of the price reversal.
Uptrend Line
An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.
Daily Candlestick Chart for VLNX
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Open to Interpretation ~ Weaknesses of Technical Analysis
Furthering the bias argument is the fact that technical analysis is open to interpretation. Even though there are standards, many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint two different scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come up with logical support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justify their position. While this can be frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science, somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder.
Daily Candlestick Chart for ATYG
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Day Trading: Day trading with the foreign exchange market is in some ways vastly different to that in other markets, in addition to which, day trading in the currencies market does not suffer from the unpleasant connotation that may spring to mind when one thinks of such things with relation to the stock market.
That said, if you have previously traded in other markets, then many items styles utilized in forex, such as forwards, futures, options, spread betting, contracts for difference and also the spot market are very similar to those used in the equity markets, and often maintain a minimum trade sizes for the base currencies.
It is worth noting however that day trading, being a fast moving, highly challenging trading style may not be for everyone. Should decide that day trading is for you, then there are also many different styles and variations of day trading with the currency market that you may wish to sample before choosing the form that feels right for you, or maybe you will prefer to utilize a series of styles.
The best way to learn the day trading styles with regards to forex markets is the same as in learning and perfecting any other trading style, or indeed other skill; by practice.
Talking to you forex trading mentor and other experienced day traders to see what styles have worked best for them over the years, ask for any hints, tips and techniques that may be of benefit and try them out before making the definitive choice of which style will be right for you.
How Are Charts Formed? Line Chart
Some investors and traders consider the closing level to be more important than the open, high or low. By paying attention to only the close, intraday swings can be ignored. Line charts are also used when open, high and low data points are not available. Sometimes only closing data are available for certain indices, thinly traded stocks and intraday prices.
How Are Charts Formed? Bar Chart
Perhaps the most popular charting method is the bar chart. The high, low and close are required to form the price plot for each period of a bar chart. The high and low are represented by the top and bottom of the vertical bar and the close is the short horizontal line crossing the vertical bar. On a daily chart, each bar represents the high, low and close for a particular day. Weekly charts would have a bar for each week based on Friday's close and the high and low for that week.
Bar charts can also be displayed using the open, high, low and close. The only difference is the addition of the open price, which is displayed as a short horizontal line extending to the left of the bar. Whether or not a bar chart includes the open depends on the data available
Bar charts can be effective for displaying a large amount of data. Using candlesticks, 200 data points can take up a lot of room and look cluttered. Line charts show less clutter, but do not offer as much detail (no high-low range). The individual bars that make up the bar chart are relatively skinny, which allows users the ability to fit more bars before the chart gets cluttered. If you are not interested in the opening price, bar charts are an ideal method for analyzing the close relative to the high and low. In addition, bar charts that include the open will tend to get cluttered quicker. If you are interested in the opening price, candlestick charts probably offer a better alternative.
How Are Charts Formed? Candlestick Chart
Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite popular in recent years. For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all required. A daily candlestick is based on the open price, the intraday high and low, and the close. A weekly candlestick is based on Monday's open, the weekly high-low range and Friday's close.
Many traders and investors believe that candlestick charts are easy to read, especially the relationship between the open and the close. White (clear) candlesticks form when the close is higher than the open and black (solid) candlesticks form when the close is lower than the open. The white and black portion formed from the open and close is called the body (white body or black body). The lines above and below are called shadows and represent the high and low.
How Are Charts Formed? Point
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Daily Candlestick Chart for TUCN
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Commodity Channel Index: The Commodity Channel Index is a tool developed by Donald Lambert to measure the point at which cyclical price reversals for a given asset can be expected. One of the fundamental assumptions behind the CCI is that price trends reverse at regular intervals within an asset, allowing investors to take the appropriate action when the CCI indicates that one of those cyclical reversals is imminent.
The CCI is calculated first by averaging the high, low and closing prices into a measure called the True Price, or TP. A 20-period moving average of the TP becomes the Simple Moving Average of the True Price, or SMATP. A standard deviation of the difference between SMATP and TP over twenty periods is also taken. The difference between TP and SMATP is then divided by the product of this standard deviation and a constant value of .015 to produce the CCI.
The constant value of .015 ensures that the majority of CCI values fall between 100 and -100. In the case that the absolute value of CCI exceeds 100, Lambert's theory indicates that the market is approaching one of its cyclical reversals, and that traders should take the appropriate action. The CCI also indicates overbought and oversold levels, which are any levels whose absolute value exceeds 100. If the CCI moves outside of the -100 to 100 range and then returns, either a buy or sell signal is generated, depending on whether the CCI was below -100 (oversold) or above 100 (overbought.)
What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future price movements. At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do not heed the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are weak-form efficient. By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information, fundamental analysts look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies.
Daily Candlestick Chart for FLXT
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Currency Manipulation: Currency manipulation is the act of changing its value against other currencies instead of leaving it free to fluctuate based on market dynamics. This can be done by fixing the exchange rate or deliberately increasing or decreasing its value.
This practice is usually frowned upon since it results to an artificial distortion in currency prices. In fact, it is considered an illegal practice based on US laws and international agreements.
This could also give way to unfair trade advantages since artificially devaluing a country's currency could make its exports relatively cheaper and more attractive. In the long run, this could eventually result to a global trade imbalance
Narrow Within the Group
Once the industry group is chosen, an investor would need to narrow the list of companies before proceeding to a more detailed analysis. Investors are usually interested in finding the leaders and the innovators within a group. The first task is to identify the current business and competitive environment within a group as well as the future trends. How do the companies rank according to market share, product position and competitive advantage? Who is the current leader and how will changes within the sector affect the current balance of power? What are the barriers to entry? Success depends on an edge, be it marketing, technology, market share or innovation. A comparative analysis of the competition within a sector will help identify those companies with an edge, and those most likely to keep it.
Daily Candlestick Chart for FLRE
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Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Monthly Report: Release schedule : 6:00 (GMT); in the middle of the month
Revisions schedule : None
Source of report : Bank of Japan
Web Address : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/
Address of release : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/handan/gp/index.htm
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Bubbles
Robert Shiller identified several credible factors that influenced investment decisions during the bubble years. Many of these factors exist today and his analysis provides food for thought when considering behavioral finance. Not all factors or influences are listed in this article. Shiller offers more factors and detailed evidence in the book. After examining efficient markets, random walks, bubbles and investor attitudes, Shiller also offers several remedies to contain "speculative volatility in a free society".
Behavior finance can help us understand what is happening, but understanding may not help with making money in the stock market. While the first edition coincided with the stock market peak in 2000, the stock market rose another 30% after the second edition was published in February 2005. There is an argument to be made for historical valuations, but markets can remain irrational a lot longer than traders can remain solvent. In other words, one would have left a lot of money on the table by selling in early 2005 or one would have gone broke shorting stocks in early 2005. To his credit, Shiller does provide evidence of past mispricing in the stock market. It can and does happen.
Furthermore, who is to say how much a stock is actually worth? The value of any asset is only what someone is willing to pay for it. Valuations are set everyday as stocks change hands on Wall Street. Just as prices trend, valuations also trend from overvaluation to undervaluation. Sometimes these trends get extreme on both sides. Stocks were severely overvalued in early 2000 and severely undervalued in March 2009. It would appear that some sort of timing mechanism is needed to avoid the big declines and participate in the big advances. Hmm… sounds like technical analysis!
Daily Candlestick Chart for BFCF
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