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Short Selling
The normal process of "going long" involves buying first and selling last, hopefully at a higher price. Short selling is the same concept of buying low and selling high, but in the reverse order. You borrow some stock from your brokerage and immediately sell it on the market. After the stock drops in price you must buy some shares from the market and return them to your brokerage. It sounds complicated at first, but it is really almost as easy as "going long."
Daily Candlestick Chart for TNIB
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TNIB
Daily Candlestick Chart for WELL
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Support and Resistance Zones
Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. This is contrary to the strategy mapped out for Lucent Technologies (LU), but it is sometimes the case. Each security has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.
Returning to the analysis of Halliburton (HAL), we can see that the November high of the trading range (33 to 44) extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low in December, which was just higher than the October low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the stock trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.
Daily Candlestick Chart for PFNO
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=PFNO
Validation of Trend Lines
It takes two or more points to draw a trend line. The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. It can sometimes be difficult to find more than 2 points from which to construct a trend line. Even though trend lines are an important aspect of technical analysis, it is not always possible to draw trend lines on every price chart. Sometimes the lows or highs just don't match up, and it is best not to force the issue. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.
The chart of Microsoft (MSFT) shows an uptrend line that has been touched 4 times. After the third touch in Nov-99, the trend line was considered a valid line of support. Now that the stock has bounced off of this level a fourth time, the soundness of the support level is enhanced even more. As long as the stock remains above the trend line (support), the trend will remain in control of the bulls. A break below would signal that net-supply was increasing and that a change in trend could be imminent.
Where Is Resistance Established?
Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.
Daily Candlestick Chart for KLDO
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=KLDO
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting and Announcement: Release schedule : No set time, usually between 2:00 and 4:00 (GMT); monthly, in the middle of the month
Source of report : Bank of Japan
Web Address : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm
Address of Release : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/kettei/index.htm
Schedule of Meetings : http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/index.htm
Value Spotting as a Strength of Fundamental Analysis
Sound fundamental analysis will help identify companies that represent a good value. Some of the most legendary investors think long-term and value. Graham and Dodd, Warren Buffett and John Neff are seen as the champions of value investing. Fundamental analysis can help uncover companies with valuable assets, a strong balance sheet, stable earnings, and staying power.
Daily Candlestick Chart for GLTV
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLTV
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Deflation: Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It is the decrease in the price of a basket of goods and services. Deflation happens when the annual inflation rate turns negative. Such an event is usually brought about by a reduction in the money supply and/or credit.
Currency Impact
While inflation tends to decrease the purchasing power of a currency, deflation tends to result in an increase in the “real” value of money.
Psychological Factors Connected to Irrational Exuberance
Robert Shiller asserts that there is a human tendency towards "overconfidence in ones beliefs". Moreover, people often rely on intuition when making investment decisions. The decision process is not based on carefully considered facts backed by numbers and evidence. Instead, investors make investment decisions based on the opinion of others. This stems from the need to conform. Investors make decision based on "good stories" or stories that seem logical. Because people get their information from the same sources, there is little or no evidence of independent behavior. Instead, individuals getting the same information react the same way to produce a herd mentality.
Daily Candlestick Chart for CRCUF
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CRCUF
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Support/Resistance
Simple chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These are usually marked by periods of congestion (trading range) where the prices move within a confined range for an extended period, telling us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked. When prices move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply or demand has started to get the upper hand. If prices move above the upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning. If prices move below the lower band, then supply is winning.
Daily Candlestick Chart for DNAG
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=DNAG
Trendlines drawn on 3-box Reversal P
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Daily Candlestick Chart for BLSP
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BLSP
Chart Indicators:
• Bollinger Bands
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
• Parabolic SAR
• Stochastics
• RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• Moving Average
• RSI(SMA)
• RSI(EMI)
• Momentum
• MC
• Volume
• ADX
• OBV
• MFI
• Williams % Range
• ROC
• Volatility
• Standard Deviation
• Trend Line
• Elliott Wave
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Daily Candlestick Chart for TIPS
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$ANDI BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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General Steps to Technical Evaluation
Many technicians employ a top-down approach that begins with broad-based macro analysis. The larger parts are then broken down to base the final step on a more focused/micro perspective. Such an analysis might involve three steps:
Broad market analysis through the major indices such as the S
Daily Candlestick Chart for LNXGF
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=LNXGF
$RFMK BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Bond Auction: A government bond auction is the process of selling short and long-term government bonds to investors in an attempt to minimize the cost of financing national debt.
The process starts with the central bank announcing how much money it intends to borrow. Details like the term length of the bonds and the date of the auction are included in the announcement.
Interested market players like broker-dealers, institutions, and individual investors then submit the amount of bonds that they’re willing to buy and bid at the yield that they want to be paid. Take note that the specific processes of bond auctions are different across countries.
The success of a government bond auction can be measured by the bid-to-cover ratio, a metric that measures how much the total bids exceed the initial amount that the central bank was aiming for.
For example, an auction collects bids worth $100 billion, but the central bank had only aimed for $45 billion. The bid-to-cover ratio is 2.22 ($100/$45). An auction with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.00 or higher is usually considered as successful.
Traders also look at the change in bond yields after each auction. A higher yield means that investors are demanding a higher price for holding the government bond. Alternatively, a lower bond yield usually signals higher investor confidence and lower borrowing costs for the government (which would make it easier to pay debts).
Daily Candlestick Chart for EMWW
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EMWW
Commodity Channel Index: The Commodity Channel Index is a tool developed by Donald Lambert to measure the point at which cyclical price reversals for a given asset can be expected. One of the fundamental assumptions behind the CCI is that price trends reverse at regular intervals within an asset, allowing investors to take the appropriate action when the CCI indicates that one of those cyclical reversals is imminent.
The CCI is calculated first by averaging the high, low and closing prices into a measure called the True Price, or TP. A 20-period moving average of the TP becomes the Simple Moving Average of the True Price, or SMATP. A standard deviation of the difference between SMATP and TP over twenty periods is also taken. The difference between TP and SMATP is then divided by the product of this standard deviation and a constant value of .015 to produce the CCI.
The constant value of .015 ensures that the majority of CCI values fall between 100 and -100. In the case that the absolute value of CCI exceeds 100, Lambert's theory indicates that the market is approaching one of its cyclical reversals, and that traders should take the appropriate action. The CCI also indicates overbought and oversold levels, which are any levels whose absolute value exceeds 100. If the CCI moves outside of the -100 to 100 range and then returns, either a buy or sell signal is generated, depending on whether the CCI was below -100 (oversold) or above 100 (overbought.)
$HAZH BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for FRZT
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FRZT
Bailout: A bailout is a financial term referring to an extraordinary act of lending, or outright giving, capital to an entity (a company, bank, individual, etc.) that is in danger of failure due to bankruptcy or insolvency. A bailout can also be given to a failing entity to allow it to exit gracefully without leading to a contagion.
Internal Trend Lines
Sometimes there appears to be the possibility for drawing a trend line, but the exact points do not match up cleanly. The highs or lows might be out of whack, the angle might be too steep or the points might be too close together. If one or two points could be ignored, then a fitted trend line could be formed. With the volatility present in the market, prices can over-react, and produce spikes that distort the highs and lows. One method for dealing with over-reactions is to draw internal trend lines. Even though an internal trend line ignores price spikes, the ignoring should be within reason.
The long-term trend line for the S
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$ELTP BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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To sell on the news relates to the event itself. You sometimes get the seeming paradox of a price reaching a new high before the event and falling lower immediately after the event, even when the news matches the forecast. The lower price comes about because the early birds take profit on the up move that they themselves engineered. The new low is usually short lived. After all, the forecast was for good news and the good news occurred, so the news was properly built in and the new high is the appropriate price.
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