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$CMRZF BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for HOMJF
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Where Is Resistance Established?
Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.
$MWWC BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for HYDI
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Always Another Level ~ Weaknesses of Technical Analysis
Even after a new trend has been identified, there is always another important level close at hand. Technicians have been accused of sitting on the fence and never taking an unqualified stance. Even if they are bullish, there is always some indicator or some level that will qualify their opinion.
$CASG BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for NTEK
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NTEK
Interpretation of Heikin-Ashi
Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks are similar, but different than normal candlesticks. A Heikin-Ashi Candlestick is hollow (white) when the HA-Close is above the HA-Open. Conversely, a candlestick is filled (black) when the HA-Close is below the HA-Open. This is similar to normal candlesticks, which are filled (black) when the close is below the open and hollow (white) when the close is above the open.
While traditional candlestick patterns do not exist with Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks, chartists can derive valuable information from these charts. A long hollow Heikin-Ashi candlestick shows strong buying pressure over a two day period. Absence of a lower shadow also reflects strength. A long filled Heikin-Ashi candlestick shows strong selling pressure over a two day period. Absence of an upper shadow also reflects selling pressure. Small Heikin-Ashi candlesticks or those with long upper and lower shadows show indecision over the last two days. This often occurs when the two normal candlesticks are of opposite color.
The chart above shows QQQ with Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks over a four month period. The blue arrows show indecisive Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks that formed with two normal candlesticks of opposite color. Indecision can sometimes foreshadow a trend reversal. The red arrows show a strong decline marked by a series of Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks without upper shadows. This means the Heikin-Ashi Open marked the high and the remaining data points were lower. The green arrow shows a strong advance marked by a series of Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks without lower shadows. This means the Heikin-Ashi Open marked the low and the remaining data points were higher.
Analyst: When analyzing the market, analysts can generally be divided into two camps - fundamentals and technicals.
Fundamental analysts are those who mainly look at the fundamental aspects of an economy in forming their opinions. They stay on top of the markets by reading and analyzing what the current economic data say about current market conditions, what is fundamentally driving the market, and where it's headed.
Technical analysts are those who primarily rely on chart indicators and patterns to help predict where price will move next. Some tools that technical analysts use are Fibonacci retracement, candlesticks and momentum indicators.
$UNDT BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for SELR
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Psychological Factors Connected to Irrational Exuberance
Robert Shiller asserts that there is a human tendency towards "overconfidence in ones beliefs". Moreover, people often rely on intuition when making investment decisions. The decision process is not based on carefully considered facts backed by numbers and evidence. Instead, investors make investment decisions based on the opinion of others. This stems from the need to conform. Investors make decision based on "good stories" or stories that seem logical. Because people get their information from the same sources, there is little or no evidence of independent behavior. Instead, individuals getting the same information react the same way to produce a herd mentality.
$SSBN BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for PRAY
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$GIHI BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful technical analysis. Even though it is sometimes difficult to establish exact support and resistance levels, being aware of their existence and location can greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. If a security is approaching an important support level, it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. If a support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.
Daily Candlestick Chart for GTMM
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$IXMD BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for CZICF
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Doji: The doji is a type of candlestick and a warning sign of a pending reversal. The lack of a real body conveys a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers and the balance of power may be shifting. The open and close are pretty much equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign.
$AERO BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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What Is Support?
Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.
Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.
Daily Candlestick Chart for MEDT
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=MEDT
Heikin-Ashi Doji and Spinning Tops
As with normal candlestick, Heikin-Ashi doji and spinning tops can be used to foreshadow reversals. A Heikin-Ashi doji or Heikin-Ashi spinning top looks just the same as a normal doji or spinning top. A doji is a small candlestick with an open and close that are virtually equal. There are small upper and lower shadows to denote little price movement.
Spinning tops have small bodies (open-close range) and long upper/lower shadows (high-low range). Despite a lot of movement from high to low, prices finish near their opening point for little change. This shows indecision that can foreshadow a reversal.
When using Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks, a doji or spinning top in a downtrend is not right away bullish. It just shows indecision within the downtrend. Indecision is the first step to changing direction. Confirmation of a directional change (trend reversal) is required though. Once chartists spot a doji or spinning top in a downtrend, it is time to set a resistance level upon which to base a trend reversal.
The example below shows Caterpillar (CAT) with a spinning top forming in late May (1). The trend is clearly down so a resistance level is set to define a reversal breakout (confirmation). CAT did break this resistance level a few days later, but the breakout failed. Not all signals are perfect. The downtrend extended and CAT then formed two doji in mid June. A resistance level was marked after the doji and CAT broke resistance to confirm a reversal.
Prices extended higher until the stock stalled around 110 in July. Two doji and an indecisive candlestick formed in mid July (3). Also notice that a clear support level was established. CAT broke support in late July to start a strong downtrend and confirm the trend reversal. A spinning top formed during this downtrend (4), but there was no upside follow through or reversal. Confirmation of a trend reversal is important.
$PSYC BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for GLDG
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLDG
Using Financial Analysis to pick a stock
The final step to this analysis process would be to take apart the financial statements and come up with a means of valuation. Below is a list of potential inputs into a financial analysis.
Accounts Payable
Accounts Receivable
Acid Ratio
Amortization
Assets - Current
Assets - Fixed
Book Value
Brand
Business Cycle
Business Idea
Business Model
Business Plan
Capital Expenses
Cash Flow
Cash on hand
Current Ratio
Customer Relationships
Days Payable
Days Receivable
Debt
Debt Structure
Debt:Equity Ratio
Depreciation
Derivatives-Hedging
Discounted Cash Flow
Dividend
Dividend Cover
Earnings
EBITDA
Economic Growth
Equity
Equity Risk Premium
Expenses Good Will
Gross Profit Margin
Growth
Industry
Interest Cover
International
Investment
Liabilities - Current
Liabilities - Long-term
Management
Market Growth
Market Share
Net Profit Margin
Pageview Growth
Pageviews
Patents
Price/Book Value
Price/Earnings
PEG
Price/Sales
Product
Product Placement
Regulations
R
$ENTB BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for WNYN
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Price Objections based on a vertical count, horizontal count or any other count should be taken with a grain of salt. Consider these targets as broad guidelines. Securities will not always reach their targets. Some will even reverse course and trigger conflicting P
Dark Cloud Cover: A bearish reversal pattern that continues the uptrend with a long white body. The next candle opens at a new high then closes below the midpoint of the body of the first candle. The pattern is more signficant if the second candle's body is below the center of the previous body. The pattern is casting a “dark cloud” over the bullish trend that preceded it. Confirmation of the pattern is achieved when another black candle, of smaller size, forms after the second candle
$GEFI BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for BGEM
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$IDNG BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Daily Candlestick Chart for MONA
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$HCBP BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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Broadening Formation: A broadening formation is an example of a consolidation pattern and a highly useful tool in the prediction of the likelihood of a reversal in the direction of a current trend. When found in an uptrend it indicates not a continuation of that trend, but a near-term reversal of the price action.
The broadening formation occurs when the fluctuation within the price produces a series of higher highs and of lower lows that steadily widen over time and are generally thought to be found only in found in topping formations where they are considered to be the result of unrealistic expectations of bullish investors.
Unlike the majority of other consolidation patterns, broadening formations feature increasingly wide ranges and are subject to much greater levels of volatility as time passes. Volume levels increase as the share price rises, which although normally indicates a bullish position rallies in this instance usually prove to be very short lived and the following declines are prone to decimating former support levels leading to an eventual collapse.
Cultural Factors Causing Irrational Exuberance
The news media and new era thinking are among the cultural factors cited by Shiller. Yes, the media seems to keep popping up in the book. Maybe that is why technical analysts only look at price charts!
The speculative bubble was clearly aided and abetted by the news media. Newspapers, television, radio and Internet media compete for public attention. Sensational stories with sound bites are more likely to attract attention than drab analysis with numbers and facts. Despite an inattention to detail, the news media was always there with specific reasons for a stock market move. The media always found the perfect excuse or news event to justify the move - after the fact. It is kind of like a solution in search of a problem.
Robert Shiller notes that news of price changes is influential on investor behavior. In his survey after the crash on October 19th 1987, Shiller listed all the recent news events that seemed relevant and asked respondents to rate the stories. News of the October 14th price decline was also included in this list. At the time, this was the single largest one-day point decline in the Dow Industrials. Surprisingly, the stories relating to the past price declines were deemed the most significant news events. As Shiller states:
Thus it appears that the stock market crash had substantially to do with a psychological feedback loop among the general investing public from price declines to selling and thus to further price declines, along the lines of a negative bubble. The crash apparently had nothing particularly to do with any news story other than that of the crash itself, but rather with theories about other investors' reasons for selling and about their psychology.
New era economic thinking was also cited by Shiller as a cultural factor that contributed to the stock market bubble. New era thinking is not new. Stock market advances in the late 1800s, 1920's and 1960's were also facilitated by new era thinking. At the 1901 peak, new era thinking centered around railroads, big industrial trusts and the age of optimism. The roaring 20's were marked by the electrical age for big cities and the widening use of autos. The 1960's were punctuated by a baby boom, the proliferation of television and low inflation. And finally, the 1990s saw the Internet boom, low inflation, the new economy and the alleged end of the business cycle.
$AGFL BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
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