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Open to Interpretation ~ Weaknesses of Technical Analysis
Furthering the bias argument is the fact that technical analysis is open to interpretation. Even though there are standards, many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint two different scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come up with logical support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justify their position. While this can be frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science, somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder.
Biflation: Biflation is a phenomenon where both inflation and deflation occur at the same time. This term was coined by Dr. Osborne Brown, a Senior Financial Analyst for the Phoenix Investment group.
During biflation, the prices of commodities and earnings-based assets (equities) rise while the prices of debt-based assets (bonds) fall
Daily Candlestick Chart for CTDT
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=CTDT
Daily Candlestick Chart for EENT
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EENT
$ECRY BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=ECRY
Ascending Triangle: An Ascending Triangle is a price action formation signal based on continuation pattern theory.
Continuation patterns also include symmetrical triangles, descending triangles, wedges, flags, rectangles and pennants and are essentially technical patterns that are expected to lead to the continuation of an existing trend. Continuation patterns are considered a powerful trading tool as they usually result in extremely low risk trading opportunities and spectacular returns.
An ascending triangle demonstrated within a chart pattern is recognized as having a bullish position and occurs as a result of price highs and price lows that have begun to converge so that they, in effect, form a point. If a line is drawn above and below the pattern the top line will appear straight whilst the bottom will slope upwards at an angle.
Ascending triangles are considered to be at their most reliable when occurring during an uptrend, and a buy order should be placed on a break above the upper resistance area of the triangle. If however, the pattern is proved to be false, or if the ascending triangle pattern should fail, then it is advisable to sell when the market breaks out and below the triangle.
Daily Candlestick Chart for NILA
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NILA
What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future price movements. At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do not heed the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are weak-form efficient. By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information, fundamental analysts look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies.
$SOACF BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=SOACF
Support/Resistance
Simple chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These are usually marked by periods of congestion (trading range) where the prices move within a confined range for an extended period, telling us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked. When prices move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply or demand has started to get the upper hand. If prices move above the upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning. If prices move below the lower band, then supply is winning.
Daily Candlestick Chart for NFDS
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=NFDS
Narrow Within the Group
Once the industry group is chosen, an investor would need to narrow the list of companies before proceeding to a more detailed analysis. Investors are usually interested in finding the leaders and the innovators within a group. The first task is to identify the current business and competitive environment within a group as well as the future trends. How do the companies rank according to market share, product position and competitive advantage? Who is the current leader and how will changes within the sector affect the current balance of power? What are the barriers to entry? Success depends on an edge, be it marketing, technology, market share or innovation. A comparative analysis of the competition within a sector will help identify those companies with an edge, and those most likely to keep it.
Descending Trendline: Descending trendlines are a variety of trendlines, one of the most fundamental tools for technical analysis. Descending trendlines are simply trendlines with a negative slope, indicating falling prices. There are two types of descending trendlines: descending top trendlines, in which the high prices for an asset are falling, and descending bottom trendlines, in which the low prices for the asset are falling.
The rules for trading using descending trendlines are the same as the rules for trading with trendlines in general. A descending top trendline is a measure of the resistance to an asset's price, and traders consider a break in price through the descending top to be buy signal for the asset. A descending bottom trendline is a measure of the support in an asset's price, and traders consider a break in price through the descending bottom to be a sell signal for the asset. Many traders consider it necessary for additional signals to appear on the chart before a broken descending trendline is confirmed, and before those traders will take the appropriate market action.
Runaway Gaps
Runaway gaps are also called measuring gaps, and are best described as gaps that are caused by increased interest in the stock. For runaway gaps to the upside, it usually represents traders who did not get in during the initial move of the up trend and while waiting for a retracement in price, decided it was not going to happen. Increased buying interest happens all of a sudden, and the price gaps above the previous day's close. This type of runaway gap represents an almost panic state in traders. Also, a good uptrend can have runaway gaps caused by significant news events that cause new interest in the stock. In the chart below, note the significant increase in volume during and after the runaway gap.
Runaway gaps can also happen in downtrends. This usually represents increased liquidation of that stock by traders and buyers who are standing on the sidelines. These can become very serious as those who are holding onto the stock will eventually panic and sell – but sell to whom? The price has to continue to drop and gap down to find buyers. Not a good situation.
The term measuring gap is also used for runaway gaps. This is an interpretation that is hard to find examples for, but it is a way of helping one decide how much longer a trend will last. The theory is that the measuring gap will occur in the middle of, or half way through, the move.
Sometimes, the futures market will have runaway gaps that are caused by trading limits imposed by the exchanges. Getting caught on the wrong side of the trend when you have these limit moves in futures can be horrifying. The good news is that you can also be on the right side of them. These are not common occurrences in the futures market despite all the wrong information being touted by those who do not understand it, and are only repeating something they read from an uninformed reporter.
Daily Candlestick Chart for GWBU
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GWBU
$AGFL BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=AGFL
Double Bottom: A Double Bottom is a form of chart pattern used in technical analysis. This pattern is characterized by a distinct drop in price, followed by a slight reversal (or recovery) with a second drop occurring soon after to either the same or similar level as the first, before another, significant recovery so that the chart appears to take on the form of the letter 'W'.
The Double Bottom, along with its counterpart, the Double Top, is easily one of the most recognizable chart patterns. While both are reliable reversal patterns, highly indicative of chances in the market, the bullish Double Bottom reflects very strong levels of support and often indicates a strong change of trend.
The double low points are considered to be support levels, with the resistance level measured at the widest point of the 'W' formation. When the rise following the second low breaks the resistance point generally the rise will continue sharply, with these reversal trends garnering more reward following extended downtrends.
It is normally considered that the best entry point on a double bottom formation is around the secondary resistance level, which when broken tends to indicate a the confirmation of the price reversal.
Short Selling
The normal process of "going long" involves buying first and selling last, hopefully at a higher price. Short selling is the same concept of buying low and selling high, but in the reverse order. You borrow some stock from your brokerage and immediately sell it on the market. After the stock drops in price you must buy some shares from the market and return them to your brokerage. It sounds complicated at first, but it is really almost as easy as "going long."
Daily Candlestick Chart for GLDG
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLDG
Where Is Support Established?
Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact support levels. In addition, price movements can be volatile and dip below support briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.
$MHCC BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=MHCC
Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful technical analysis. Even though it is sometimes difficult to establish exact support and resistance levels, being aware of their existence and location can greatly enhance analysis and forecasting abilities. If a security is approaching an important support level, it can serve as an alert to be extra vigilant in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal. If a support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.
Daily Candlestick Chart for SRGE
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SRGE
Beige Book: A summary of economic conditions around the United States compiled for the Federal Reserve Board. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic condition in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key businessmen, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. This report allows outsiders to know what the Fed governors are looking at as they prepare for their upcoming FOMC meeting.
The market peak and downturn are followed by a contraction in the economy. At this stage, the Fed starts to lower interest rates and the yield curve steepens. Falling interest rates benefit debt-laden utilities and business at banks. The steepening yield curve also improves profitability at banks and encourages lending. Low interest rates and easy money eventually lead to a market bottom and the cycle repeats itself.
Daily Candlestick Chart for QASP
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QASP
Business Plan
The business plan, model or concept forms the bedrock upon which all else is built. If the plan, model or concepts stink, there is little hope for the business. For a new business, the questions may be these: Does its business make sense? Is it feasible? Is there a market? Can a profit be made? For an established business, the questions may be: Is the company's direction clearly defined? Is the company a leader in the market? Can the company maintain leadership?
Common Gaps
Sometimes referred to as a trading gap or an area gap, the common gap is usually uneventful. In fact, they can be caused by a stock going ex-dividend when the trading volume is low. These gaps are common (get it?) and usually get filled fairly quickly. "Getting filled" means that the price action at a later time (few days to a few weeks) usually retraces at the least to the last day before the gap. This is also known as closing the gap. Here is a chart of two common gaps that have been filled. Notice that after the gap the prices have come down to at least the beginning of the gap? That is called closing or filling the gap.
A common gap usually appears in a trading range or congestion area, and reinforces the apparent lack of interest in the stock at that time. Many times this is further exacerbated by low trading volume. Being aware of these types of gaps is good, but doubtful that they will produce a trading opportunities.
Daily Candlestick Chart for SELR
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SELR
$QASP BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=QASP
Deflation: Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It is the decrease in the price of a basket of goods and services. Deflation happens when the annual inflation rate turns negative. Such an event is usually brought about by a reduction in the money supply and/or credit.
Currency Impact
While inflation tends to decrease the purchasing power of a currency, deflation tends to result in an increase in the “real” value of money.
Daily Candlestick Chart for ARAH
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=ARAH
General Steps to Technical Evaluation
Many technicians employ a top-down approach that begins with broad-based macro analysis. The larger parts are then broken down to base the final step on a more focused/micro perspective. Such an analysis might involve three steps:
Broad market analysis through the major indices such as the S
What is a Margin Account?
A margin account allows you to quickly and easily borrow money from your brokerage to purchase additional shares. In other words, it provides leverage for your account. It also allows you to do short selling. Of course interest is charged interest on any borrowed money and the SEC has very strict regulations on these accounts.
Daily Candlestick Chart for MWIP
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=MWIP
Trend Lines
Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend. Trend Lines are an important tool in technical analysis for both trend identification and confirmation. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well. It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in Support and Resistance before you continue.
Bailout: A bailout is a financial term referring to an extraordinary act of lending, or outright giving, capital to an entity (a company, bank, individual, etc.) that is in danger of failure due to bankruptcy or insolvency. A bailout can also be given to a failing entity to allow it to exit gracefully without leading to a contagion.
Daily Candlestick Chart for BNIKF
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BNIKF
$ARKXF BarChart Trader's Cheat Sheet
http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=ARKXF
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![]() ![]() ![]() UPDATE; 5-1-22 courtesy of charting /\ wit tweezer top calls /\ Tony @Montana_Trades Really good study sheet on Candlestick Patterns [-chart]pbs.twimg.com/media/FRn8188XMAAdZvk?format=jpg&name=small[/chart] ![]()
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